Storm Update (Monday 8:00PM)

366 Comments

The tweak in this update will be to try to detail snow accumulations a little more. A few of the things that may impact accumulation…

(This is a repost of a comment I made on the previous blog entry.)

1) Tremendous push of dry air that is going to try to eat away the northern edge of the storm for an extra hour or two (though it will be overcome).
2) Very rapid deepening may actually pull the core of the heaviest precipitation a little closer to the storm center.
3) Don’t think it snows as long as Euro and a few other models have.
4) Banding means lighter zones between the intense bands.

These are all minor by themselves but combine to prevent some of the biggest totals. Again, there will be spots that do indeed get a bigger total.

There is a chance the low center actually ends up a shade further east, believe it or not because the low that went by here on Saturday weakened faster than projected by computer guidance. The result is a flow that is displaced slightly east and a trough that tilts ever so slightly less toward the negative. May only be a 25 mile difference in storm track, but it will have an impact. These are just some of the little details I try to work out after the opening broadbrush.

We will still have enhancement of snowfall near the east-facing and north-facing shores of NH and MA, as well as an area along the eastern slopes of the hills from near Worcester MA southward. These are the areas most likely to have pockets above the otherwise general 18-25 inch snowfall total in much of the region. Amounts will drop off to below 18 inches and then possibly very rapidly down to very little at all as head further northwestward into west central NH across to northwestern MA. Still expecting the drop off from under 18 inches western portions of Cape Cod to under 10 inches eastern portions of Cape Cod and the Islands due to mixing with rain.

Other impacts…
Coastal flooding, generally moderate but pockets of major flooding and beach erosion around high tide times, especially east and north facing shorelines.
Power outages are possible, but are most likely in areas with wetter snow and strongest wind, which will be across Cape Cod.

Looking ahead…
Improving Wednesday but clouds may linger along with a few snow showers as upper level low pressure hangs around for part of the day. High pressure brings dry and chilly weather Thursday before another storm system arrives from the west Friday. This one will have a vigorous upper level disturbance with it and may bring a decent shot of snow to parts of southeastern New England especially later Friday to early Saturday. Will monitor this. Active pattern continues beyond that along with a shot of Arctic air Saturday night and Sunday followed by a low pressure wave that may bring a chance of snow by late Sunday, ending Monday.

SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…
TONIGHT: Snow overspreads all areas, becomes heavy at times, especially coastal NH through eastern and southern MA and southward through RI. Blowing and drifting snow. Temperatures steady 15-25, coldest northwest of Boston. Wind NE to N increasing to 15-30 MPH with gusts 40-50 MPH inland, 20-40 MPH with gusts 50-60 MPH coast.
TUESDAY: Snow, heavy at times, but may mix with sleet/rain outer Cape Cod and Nantucket and even taper off there for a while before resuming as all snow. Blowing and drifting snow with possible blizzard conditions especially eastern coastal MA and higher elevations more exposed to wind. Less drifting where snow is not as fluffy across Cape Cod and the Islands but still considerable blowing snow there. Chance of lightning and thunder at times. Temperatures steady 15-25 in most areas, still coldest to the northwest, but may rise briefly to the lower 30s Cape Cod and Islands. Wind NE to N 15-35 MPH gusting 45-55 MPH inland, 25-45 MPH gusting 55-65 MPH coastal areas. Peak gusts of 65-75 MPH or even briefly stronger may take place in isolated coastal locations especially Cape Cod.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Snow ends gradually from west southeast to east northeast, firstly interior MA to RI, lastly eastern MA and southeastern NH. Additional blowing and drifting snow. Lows 10-20. Wind N to NW 15-35 MPH, higher gusts.
TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATION FOR STORM: 18 TO 25 INCHES WITH HEAVIER POCKETS OF SNOW. LESS THAN 18 INCHES WESTERN PART OF CAPE COD, AND LESS THAN 10 INCHES EASTERN PART OF CAPE COD AS WELL AS THE ISLANDS.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Chance of snow showers. Highs 25-30. Wind W 10-20 MPH.
THURSDAY: Sunny. Low 10. High 25.
FRIDAY: Cloudy. Chance of snow. Low 15. High 30.
SATURDAY: Cloudy with snow early then partly cloudy. Low 5. High 20.
SUNDAY: Sun to clouds. Snow at night. Low 0. High 25.
MONDAY: Snow early, then clearing. Low 10. High 20.

366 thoughts on “Storm Update (Monday 8:00PM)”

  2. The early returns might suggest the last two 00z NAM runs captured the ever so slightly further eastward scenario of low pressure, with the biggest impact being a lot less snow in NYC.

    Of course, its early and perhaps things could change.

  8. Moderate snow, visibility way down.

    Bad news, snow is quite wet.

    We’re in trouble with the power later tonight, I believe.

  10. Starting to pick here and wind is really gusting. More than I thought this early. Boy if NY busts people will go bonkers. Glad we don’t have to deal with that.

  12. Major heavy snow band getting ready to pivot in from southeast to northwest. This is when the storm begins. 2 inches per hour snows. No change to forecast. Snow totals will be realized with a general 20-30 inches east of 495 except for the Worcester Hills where they will also be included in this range. A few isolated pockets will of 30+ may also be realized. The core of the strong winds occur tomorrow as the low reaches maturity. Stay safe everyone!

  13. Sorry, had to stick this in here.

    Steve Buckley ‏@BuckinBoston 10m10 minutes ago
    Robert Kraft calls for apology from the NFL and is disappointed in the way this story has been reported

  14. I will however agree with TK on one thing. As evidenced by radar trends extreme dry air will tend to want to eat away at the northwest quadrant of the snow shield; however, as I mentioned two days ago, there will be a sharp cut off between heavy and lighter snows once you get toward the northwestern part of the state.

  17. 8pm wind GUSTS (mph)

    Marshfield : 41 mph

    Martha’s Vineyard : 40 mph

    Nantucket : 46 mph

    Block Island : 41 mph

      1. I will. 🙂

        The list of obs has it as not available. But, I’m using the ob list where it gives the wind as mph.

        In the individual ob, it is there, but it is in kts.

  19. Looks like the storm is tightening it’s precipitation shield.
    What was falling to the N&W has dried up. ALmost NO echoes on the ALbany Radar.

    Veeeery interesting. 😀

    1. My point exactly. This may have more relevance than you realize. Will need to monitor radar trends. NYC busted and northwest part of state may also bust. What does this mean for us? Will monitor.

    2. The precip shield is surrounded by huge dewpoint depressions.

      Though they are NNE, Portsmouth NH is 18/5 T/Td and Portland, ME has a dewpoint of -1F.

      1. JMA pointed out a couple of days ago that there may be a sharp gradient demarcating the heavy from the light precip. I also concurred with that thinking. But yes, a few hours ago TK you did point that out 😀

  21. Tom did you report this?

    Tim Kelley NECN ‏@SurfSkiWxMan 3m3 minutes ago
    word from Marshfield MA RT @Noreastersurf lots of moisture in the snow down here. Perfect snowball snow or drop branches on power lines snow

    1. No 🙂

      But, he is correct.

      My wife had forgotten her cell phone in the car and I was curious about the snow density and it was very wet. Very easily made a snowball.

      1. Now, I am on the eastern edge of town, fairly close to the ocean.

        I cant confirm the snow density 3 or 4 miles west, up by Rte 3.

        1. Tom. Heavy band per radar over you. Have you noticed that the intensity of the snowfall has increased? 1+ inch per hour?

          1. Yes, it has increased the last hour.

            I’d call it moderate, but consistently moderate.

            Its a combination of a fine, thick misty snow with some bigger flakes.

            I’d say we’ve gotten an inch the last hour and maybe have an inch and a half total so far ……

            1. Snow is not quite as wet here…yeah you can compact into a snowball but it doesn’t hold well. Already some drifting here. About an inch and a half of snow so far but it’s already getting tough to tell with the wind.

  25. If you look at radar trends, the heavy snow band that is attempting to rotate from southeast to northwest has not been able to overcome the dry air and thus has stopped its forward progress. Obviously, if this trend continues, snowfall forecast will be cut in half! Eventually, the deepening low should overcome the dry air but TK’s nowcasting may come to fruition, thus a small decrease in snowfall totals may be necessary.

      2. You can’t disagree with the progression of the heaviest snow band if you actually look at the current radar. It hasn’t progressed much. Dry air has invaded from the northwest. This is why NYC has missed out and why Chicopee MA is missing out. This is also why the heavy snow band’s forward progress has halted. I’m not saying this will remain that way. But the more time that goes by with dry air invasion, the less snow we receive. It’s all in the timing. I still foresee 2 ft amounts but TK may be right. 3 foot amounts may not be realized…not that it would matter at this point. Still an impressive snow total.

        1. ummmm…. Rhode island is nearly covered in 25 dbz where it wasn’t only an hour ago. And it came from the SE moving NW.

    2. Perhaps. It’s NAM time now. That’s a lot of JUICE Being forced Upwards into and over the Arctic air. We must monitor for sure. I am disappointed in
      the lack of progress of that band. I wonder if the system isn’t sitting and cranking a bit before moving some? I dunno. Very dynamic situation.

      Watching the NAM for any changes. We shall see. 500MB beginning to
      negatively tilt.

  28. I dont know if this is relevant ….

    Sometimes in the past, when a storm didnt produce the snow as far north and west as it was supposed to, I seem to recall one tell tale sign early in the event.

    The wind direction. It would be 360 or at best 010 very early on in the storm at Logan.

    But, Logan has been at 040 or even 050, as has a majority of the coastline, so, I think that must say the storm is coming close to the benchmark and given time, will throw good precip a ways further north and west.

  29. At 08z, the NAM has the low at 982mb.

    What, thats ….. 3am or only 6 hrs from now.

    Holy moly, I think the current pressure is in the mid 990s mb.

  30. Dew points are virtually all below zero across NH, VT, and parts of Maine, and the dry air extends upward for some distance. That will be what results in the sharp cut-off in accumulation well N & W of Boston and the delayed onset of the heaviest snow in these locations.

    No big impact on what happens further and and east foreseen at this time.

      1. Literally spit my beer out on that one Vicki!

        Charlie are you still here because you are the locker room attendant that is being investigated???

  37. Someone gets 36″ out of this, I’m confident of that. With the way the banding sets up in these storms, isolated spots of 3-5″ per hour? Someone gets pushed over the range. That said 20-30″ will be the norm.

      1. I would tend to agree, that looks like the sweet spot. West side of the coastal front, plenty of moisture and ratios high enough to pile it up. Then it’s just a matter of where exactly the heaviest banding is.

    2. If that occurs, that sets up south of Boston. Bullseye southwest of Boston moves southeast toward Brockton, Taunton, Plymouth. Nevertheless, a blocker buster for everyone.

  39. Something really strikes me about that NAM run …

    It maintains the intensity of the low further in time. I was always taken aback not only bybhow quickly it intensified, by how quickly it weakened on previous runs.

    Still in the 980s having moved a decent distance east of Cape Cod.

    Whereas, it was higher in that spot a day or 2 ago.

    And, then, the backlash looks stronger along the immediate coastline and it looks like it has a ring of convection around its northside on the composite reflectivity at hr 27.

    1. For Worcester, approximately less than .2 tenths by ooz on the 12z NAM. I’ve got 1.5″ snow at this moment.

  42. 9pm wind GUSTS (mph)

    Nantucket : 49 mph.

    Martha’s Vineyard : 45 mph.

    Marshfield : 37 mph.

    Blue Hill : 41 mph

    Block Island : 43 mph

    I’m sorry OS, on the ob list, Logan has a sustained wind report but no gusts.

  45. So I just purchased a roundtrip airfare to the Maldives. It leaves tonight at midnight out of Logan. Myself and 30 friends chartered a plane. It is the hurricane hunter so expecting a rough ride. Hope you all don’t get snowed in. Thanks TK

  47. Buoy 44008, which is 54 Nautical Miles SE of Nantucket …

    8:50 pm ob

    Wind direction : 040

    Wind speed : Sustained at 40.8 KNOTS, max gust : 50.5 KNOTS

    Wave height : 15.1 feet

  50. There is now a consistent low background roar to the wind, that continues to slowly grow louder.

    In the last hour, have come a few window rattling gusts.

    While the snow continues to be wet, it doesnt appear to be building up on the trees quite as bad as it was during the early part of NEMO. Perhaps a hopeful sign.

      1. And in Westwood. A couple of times, my wife and I thought it was a snow plow. My wife even thought it was thunder when indeed it was the wind. The storm is beginning to unfold. It begins now as we enter the meat and potatoes of the storm.

  51. Moderate to sometimes heavier snow here in Hingham 29 degrees with winds gusting here probably 25-30. Not sure of the visibility but I would say 1/2 to 3/4 of a mile at times.

  53. I’ll take that NAM run – pretty much locks in 2 feet plus most places from the CT River Valley east.

    Snow and wind have really picked up in Coventry, CT. About 2″ on the ground so far.

  54. Brett Anderson tweet

    @BrettAWX: Storm is most likely going to underperform in terms of snowfall for much of NJ and eastern PA. Not the case for southern New England/Long I.

  55. There is a 9:30 pm update to the NWS discussion, if anyone is interested.

    Just discussing what is being seen and the expectation of what might happen the nect several hrs.

    About 4 or so new paragraphs with the update.

  58. FROM the NWS as Tom informed us:

    930 PM UPDATE…
    WV LOOP SHOWS CLASSIC CYCLOGENESIS TAKING PLACE WITH WELL DEFINED
    COMMA HEAD OFF MID ATLC COAST WITH WARM CONVEYOR BELT/TROWAL
    LIFTING NWD INTO NEW ENG. STILL PLENTY OF JET ENERGY DIVING SOUTH
    TO THE SE US COAST WITH TRAILING NEG TILT SHORTWAVE/MID LEVEL
    CIRCULATION OFF NC COAST WITH SCT LIGHTNING STRIKES NOTED. IT IS
    THIS SHORTWAVE THAT WILL RESULT IN DEEPENING MID LEVEL LOW CENTER
    AND EXPLOSIVE CYCLOGENESIS SOUTH OF NEW ENG.

    FIRST MESOSCALE BAND LIFTING NORTH ALONG THE SOUTH COAST AND INTO
    RI AND SE MA THIS EVENING ASSOCD WITH ENHANCED SNOWFALL RATES.
    WILL SEE OCCASIONAL BANDS LIFT N ACROSS SNE TONIGHT WITH TWO
    DISTINCT BANDS LIKELY DEVELOPING LATER TONIGHT INTO TUE. FIRST
    ASSOCD WITH MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AS THE MID LEVEL LOW DEEPENS
    AND THIS BAND WILL MOVE INLAND ACROSS CT AND CENTRAL MA AND
    POSSIBLY FURTHER W INTO W MA DURING TUE. THE WESTWARD EXTENT OF
    THIS BAND IS STILL UNCERTAIN. THEN VERY STRONG BANDING SIGNAL
    ASSOCD WITH LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS ALONG THE COASTAL FRONT
    LIFTING ACROSS SE NEW ENG 08-15Z. THIS BAND WILL LIKELY BE ASSOCD
    WITH 2-3″/HOUR SNOWFALL RATES ACROSS SE MA. OTHER NOTABLE FEATURE
    IS MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OVER 6 C/KM ACROSS SE NEW ENG SUGGESTING
    POTENTIAL FOR UPRIGHT CONVECTION AND THUNDER SNOW WITH ISOLD 4″/HR
    RATES.

    COASTAL FRONT CURRENTLY WEST OF I95 EXTENDING FROM BETWEEN BED-
    BOS TO NW RI. AS SFC LOW APPROACHES BENCHMARK LATE TONIGHT AND
    TUE MORNING EXPECT THIS FRONT TO MOVE ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE
    I-95 CORRIDOR WITH TEMPS CRASHING INTO THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S IN
    THE COASTAL PLAIN INCLUDING BOS AND PVD.

  59. Here is the NWS write up.

    – MODERATE TO MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING / SEVERE BEACH EROSION

    930 PM UPDATE…
    WV LOOP SHOWS CLASSIC CYCLOGENESIS TAKING PLACE WITH WELL DEFINED
    COMMA HEAD OFF MID ATLC COAST WITH WARM CONVEYOR BELT/TROWAL
    LIFTING NWD INTO NEW ENG. STILL PLENTY OF JET ENERGY DIVING SOUTH
    TO THE SE US COAST WITH TRAILING NEG TILT SHORTWAVE/MID LEVEL
    CIRCULATION OFF NC COAST WITH SCT LIGHTNING STRIKES NOTED. IT IS
    THIS SHORTWAVE THAT WILL RESULT IN DEEPENING MID LEVEL LOW CENTER
    AND EXPLOSIVE CYCLOGENESIS SOUTH OF NEW ENG.

    FIRST MESOSCALE BAND LIFTING NORTH ALONG THE SOUTH COAST AND INTO
    RI AND SE MA THIS EVENING ASSOCD WITH ENHANCED SNOWFALL RATES.
    WILL SEE OCCASIONAL BANDS LIFT N ACROSS SNE TONIGHT WITH TWO
    DISTINCT BANDS LIKELY DEVELOPING LATER TONIGHT INTO TUE. FIRST
    ASSOCD WITH MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AS THE MID LEVEL LOW DEEPENS
    AND THIS BAND WILL MOVE INLAND ACROSS CT AND CENTRAL MA AND
    POSSIBLY FURTHER W INTO W MA DURING TUE. THE WESTWARD EXTENT OF
    THIS BAND IS STILL UNCERTAIN. THEN VERY STRONG BANDING SIGNAL
    ASSOCD WITH LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS ALONG THE COASTAL FRONT
    LIFTING ACROSS SE NEW ENG 08-15Z. THIS BAND WILL LIKELY BE ASSOCD
    WITH 2-3″/HOUR SNOWFALL RATES ACROSS SE MA. OTHER NOTABLE FEATURE
    IS MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OVER 6 C/KM ACROSS SE NEW ENG SUGGESTING
    POTENTIAL FOR UPRIGHT CONVECTION AND THUNDER SNOW WITH ISOLD 4″/HR
    RATES.

    COASTAL FRONT CURRENTLY WEST OF I95 EXTENDING FROM BETWEEN BED-
    BOS TO NW RI. AS SFC LOW APPROACHES BENCHMARK LATE TONIGHT AND
    TUE MORNING EXPECT THIS FRONT TO MOVE ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE
    I-95 CORRIDOR WITH TEMPS CRASHING INTO THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S IN
    THE COASTAL PLAIN INCLUDING BOS AND PVD.

    ONLY CHANGE TO UPDATE WAS TO INCREASE SNOW ACROSS ACK. RECEIVED
    REPORT OF 4.5″ AS OF 845 PM AND EXPECT SNOW TO CONTINUE TO AT
    LEAST 06Z BEFORE POSSIBLE CHANGEOVER.

  62. Nowcasting the radar ….

    Its amazing how profitable and how costly a NE flow can be. (maybe its not this simple, but I’m going with it).

    A NE wind on the south shore is a bonanza, straight off the ocean. Can only help, I’d think.

    But the same NE flow for the Merrimack Valley (Lowell, Lawrence, etc) is off of land and coming from Portsmouth, NH and Portland, ME, where the dewpoints are nearly 0F or lower. OUCH !!

      1. Glad to hear Matt !

        Get robbed many times down here, but every once in a while, get extra snow when its a cold NE flow like this.

  67. You do realize the fact the storm deepens so rapidly is likely going to be the reason that some of the areas to the west get screwed out of snow.

    It’s like throwing a big rock in a still pond. You create sine waves with troughs and ridges.. In the case of a deepening low they may not be perfect sine waves but there are perturbations similar… And you create small bands of lift and sinking air. Banding.

    1. Correct…Which is why the heaviest snow bands remain closest to the center of the storm. The heaviest precip contracts and doesn’t reach it’s most northwest potential.

  68. i really hope my area does not get screwed over in terms of snowfall, looking at radar looking like much of the heaviest stuff stays to the south.. Hopefully it changes. this is why i like to see rain for cape cod, islands and south shore.

    1. It doesn’t have much to do with whether the cape turns to rain or not. As the low deepens, sometimes the heaviest precip remains most intimately confined to the center. The “meaningful” outer bands don’t quite migrate as far away from the center as it would like to go (if that makes any sense).

  70. Heavy Snow now in Hingham. Visibility between 1/4 and 1/2 mile. Winds about the same as earlier. Temp holding at 29.

  72. Not sure if anyone has been watching the TWC but they have really been downplaying the snow totals. They have the highest total in CT at 16″ and most of eastern MA in 18-24″. Mentioning that the RPM and other short range models have all shifted east.

    1. Been watching this trend and never liked the idea of a broad swath of max amounts. Very difficult to do that in rapidly deepening cyclones.

      You’d be more likely to see something like that in a 100-hour type storm (like the one in February 1969).

    2. They may have a point. Since earlier this evening, the latest trends have me a bit concerned in terms of seeing a “monumental and crippling storm.” In the end, this storm perhaps prove to be that of something we have experienced many times before—a blockbuster but not necessarily historical.

  75. went out side, its a light snow, but winds are starting up winds are out of the north at around 21 mph with a few gusts around 24-28 mph (this wind is making the snow break up, visibilites are ok right now but there is fog)(remember I live a little bit elevated being in billerica.)
    snowfall around 1 inch. I really want to see those heavy bands come up here soon.

    2. It will happen Matt. You are further away from the center so naturally it will take longer for those heavier bands to make it to you. Boston is about to be under such a band. As it pivots north and west, you will be next.

      1. its just frustrating, since i know what can happen to snow bans in the merrimackvalley (my area) my forecast could easily bust for northeast mass

        1. Believe me. 16-24 inches for you Matt. You can count on it. Much of your heavy snow occurs while you’re sleeping but you’ll be able to enjoy intermittent bands of it tomorrow morning and even tomorrow afternoon before it finally winds down.

    2. Yes, but the heaviest stuff will be over shortly after noon. And we’ll also see sizable gaps develop between bands during the afternoon.

      Done by midnight, in general.

      It’s not lasting through Wednesday morning as the Euro and other overdone models have indicated.

      1. Agreed. Snow will be periodic and of varying intensity tomorrow afternoon. There will be periods of bursts of moderate-heavy snow amidst periods of light snow. The trend over time will be for heavy bands to become farther apart as the day progresses. Tomorrow morning certainly will be the worst. Once dinner time approaches, meaningful snow is over.

  78. 10pm wind GUSTS (mph)

    Logan : 37 mph

    Plymouth : 48 mph

    Martha’s Vineyard : 43 mph

    Block Island : 43 mph

    Nantucket : 55 mph

    Worcester : 38 mph

    Marshfield : 38 mph

    2. actually there is an official report of 67 mph over nantucket. Certainly winds are strengthening and sooner than I expected.

    2. Within a half hour to 45 minutes for you Vicki! The heavy bands are slow moving so once you’re under one, your’e in it for a while.

  81. Don’t care what anybody think but I love Channel 7 News!! They have the hottest female anchors in Boston. Hot anchors = ratings. thats ok in my book!!!!

    1. I’m not sure that 20 vs. 30 inches makes that much of a difference. Either way you slice it, a lot of snow is going to fall. The NAM tends to overdue it in terms of precip amounts, so if you were banking on 36-40 inches per the NAM, then perhaps it will be a let down for some.

      1. TK is alluding to the fact that 20-30 inch amounts will NOT be as widespread as the computer guidance has suggested. It’s possible isolated areas will see inches, but it is becoming less likely that this will occur on larger scale. Nevertheless 18-24 inches is still impressive and when compared to what we have seen so far this winter, just enjoy!

    1. Yes, although TK likely disagrees due to dry slot. However, I feel dry slot occurs much further east i.e. Cape.

  88. The lead heavy band is losing a bit of punch.

    I wonder if that has anything to do with fighting dry air…

    How about, YES. That’s the reason. It’ll take a while to prime the atmosphere.

    1. See above comments. That has been what I’ve been communicating since earlier this evening. The more time that is required to “prime” the atmosphere, the less snow that will be realized in terms of maximum potential per the NAM. Would you agree TK or am I eating crow?

      1. Nothing is in the books but a good foot and half is likely with perhaps as much as 20-24 inches but I’d bet on the lower aspect of that range.

  89. Very heavy snow at times here in Hingham. Would estimate 3-4 inches on the ground but once again tough to tell. Temp 28 and wind is really starting to howl now.

    1. Interesting Keith. You’re just east of the coastal front that has set up. Move inland a few miles from your locale and the temp is much lower.

      1. taking a look at the Wundermap I’d say that front is right around Route 1…almost stationary right now

        If I had to make a guess at how much snow I’ll end up with by midnight tomorrow night I’m going to say 20 inches. I do think that while the heaviest stuff will be gone by mid day or slightly later tomorrow I have a feeling that the upper level low may enhance any left over banding…not a great deal but just enough to make clean up wait for most until Wednesday.

        1. I concur with your thinking. The majority of our snow accumulation occurs over the next 12 hours with a few inches tomorrow afternoon into the evening hours. It may be a long duration event but the main event is is not of long duration.

    1. Greetings! We are experiencing the sharp snow gradient that you suggested a couple of days ago. There is a sharp demarcation between heavy snow and light snow just a few miles (relatively speaking) apart.

  92. Thanks TK and Arod,

    Just sounded like things weren’t really panning out. But I’m in Quincy I’ll take 18inches plus

    1. Probably the smart one getting some sleep now, so he can be awake at 4am and beyond when its even worst ! 🙂

    3. That’s what I’m wondering Vicki. In anticipation of the storm, OS lit up the site. Now that the storm has arrived, he is nowhere to be found. Hope he is okay.

      1. I have been in contact on Twitter with him. But haven’t takkes to him in a little bit. I think he will be back soon.

  100. I know its coming but not doing much at here and hasn’t for a while. TK will this lower our amounts a bit in Woburn?

      1. That’s why there is a range. 18-24 inches may mean closer to 18 for woburn but I still feel they close in on 20.

  101. Going to post an update soon…

    Holding onto the 18-25 for now. Pockets of heavier but very isolated. I’m more concerned there will be pockets of lower.

    Cape Cod 10-18 easily and probably stay all snow because of a slightly further east track of the low center. Nantucket will mix and probably but 6-12 which is a bump up from previously, again due to the further east track.

    Next step is to try to figure out the western drop off zone and after that to figure out where the meso bands set up as the storm goes on.

    1. As you said, computer models are not an exact science. Virtually even piece of computer model guidance suggested a mega benchmark storm. Track is apparently east of what was projected. It was evident early this evening by reviewing radar and satellite trends. For example, it’s not even snowing in north adams yet. With the eastern shift of energy (albeit slight), it’s prudent to adjust snowfall amounts accordingly. The likes of Hadi and OS may not wish to admit this, but 30 inch amounts are not likely to verify. I still feel however that 16-24 inches is likely with an isolated area or two over 24.

      2. Some areas very well might achieve 30 still. Too soon to write it off. And if I am wrong then I am wrong. 🙂 and will say so.

        1. Perhaps. But previous forecast of widespread 20-30 is not likely to verify. Most areas top off around 20 with a few spots to exceed 24 inches. It is impossible for an isolated town to reach 30? Absolutely not. But widespread monumental amounts as depicted by the computer guidance will not be realized. It is becoming more clear over time that this storm will underperform and not reach maximum potential. Nevertheless, a respectable storm 😀

      1. I think so.

        Its doing its thing.

        Maybe it formed a bit further east, but now that the 500mb low is closing off, I think its coming pretty much north for a while and all those echoes south of RI will be rotating into areas from Worcester, points east.

        1. By the time those echoes reach our area, yellows become green and not as heavy as being seen currently along the south coast of RI.

          1. I should explain further. Heaviest of bands will remain most intimately confined around the center of the deepening low as more modest bands expand into our area.

    2. shift this storm so that it rains cape, islands and south shore, I know it probably would not work out that way but i can hope lol

  105. I guess the earlier tweet from Ryan Maue about a 50″ total will not verify. Oh the disappointment. I thought it was A lock. Maybe next time, oh well

  106. 11pm wind GUSTS (mph)

    Logan : 28 mph …. The wind is now north and the temp is plunging

    Marshfield : 44 mph

    Plymouth : 46 mph

    Falmouth : 54 mph

    PTown : 53 mph

    Nantucket : 62 mph. (12 mph to go)

    1. And it’s likely that the Cape (perhaps the Islands) never change over to rain. What does this mean? Hmmmmmmmm

  108. This is still going to bring a big dumping of snow across the region even if we don’t get those widespread 20-30 inch amounts. The way this winter has gone so if all this storm dumps is a foot I will be happy

  110. I think we get the point Arod. Anyway heading to bed and I bet many areas are in the 20-30 zone in eastern Mass by the end of tomorrow.

      1. Everybody gets all excited for a monument snow storm only to be disappointed. I have seen this countless times. That’s why I do not get to excited any more when a computer model spits out 2-3′ of snow. Most of the time the higher totals do not verify.

        1. I agree. Excitement always leads to disappointment. 😉

          I miss OS! We need him here to temper some of the negativity. Hehe

          1. Sorry to be negative DS. I rarely have the opportunity post on this site. However, I enjoy being apart of a storm like this with a community of people who get as excited as I do.

            1. It’s just a tone thing. Ain’t no big thang.

              Like my mom likes to tell my dad – “how about pointing out something that’s going right instead of everything that’s going wrong!” 😀

              1. That’s simply an opinion DS. Some people would be happy if this storm never even materialized. It’s a matter of who wants what but it’s going to do what it’s going to do and I’m not impressed as of yet.

              2. tone or no tone…it’s gonna do what it’s gonna do. My tone does not change what it’s gonna do 😀

        2. Agreed Cat. At the risk of offending Retrac (lol) I will “tell you again” that computer models are just that–models, as TK reminds us time and time again. It’s never an exact science. And while it’s exciting to see the models spit out insane amounts of snow, it rarely verifies. Nevertheless, it’s still fun to anticipate, predict and experience what materializes. This storm certainly won’t be monumental, but it’s still fun to be apart of.

          1. No matter what happens with this storm. It’s better that getting rain or it being a cutter. Be happy for what you have is what I say!!

  112. Nantucket will change to rain, but the Cape will not, except perhaps the Outer Cape.

    A colder solution (it is 20F in Boston and dropping) suggests: a. the storm is not just slightly east, but farther east than forecast (will exit east of the benchmark); b. the type of snow Boston and vicinity get will remain rather fluffy (high ratio), but less qpf than initially forecast; c. jackpot will be in the Plymouth area; or from Plymouth up to Cohasset (I do see some 25 inch possibilities there); d. Western part of the state may only get 4 inches, with Central and Northern Mass. getting perhaps a foot.

    A concentrated area will still have very significant snowfall (over 20 inches; with 25 inches a possibility). This includes Brockton, Hingham, Duxbury, Taunton, Foxboro, and even as far as the Charlie hole.

    Do I see this as a blown forecast? A little. It was over-hyped (except the wind!), especially for NYC and vicinity. Ridiculously over-hyped. In the end, the storm will “cripple” perhaps a few million residents, but NOT 60 million. New Yorkers will wake up to a run-of-the-mill snowstorm which they can easily brush off the sidewalk.

    JJ and others, your turns are coming. Some of those February and March storms that produce rain at the coast will produce snow in the interior. Also, the snow event on Friday may produce next to nothing at the coast (mainly because of the warm temp profile at the surface), but at least 3 inches in the interior, with some places getting 6.

  113. Our NBC and CBS mets here in CT just went on air and held with their statewide snow maps of 15-30″. The both acknowledged the model trends with the easterly track but held with it.

    I am under a good band right now that has really blossomed over eastern CT. Definitely ramping up.

    1. Closing in on hurricane force. Nantucket will report 80mph gusts early tomorrow morning. That’s my prediction in any case. Beach erosion will be SEVERE on parts of the Cape and Islands. I think this storm will be a memorable one for CC and the Islands, and not exactly fond memories. There will be a lot of property damage. I also think SE coastal Mass. will have plenty of snow to deal with (>20 inches) and gale force winds.

  115. Winds have increased quite a bit here in Hingham. Looks like the coastal front is now running from about Houghs Neck just to the west of the Braintree split then down to about Taunton. Lower QPF yes but ratios will also get better. Thinking 20 inches still in my area.

  116. Sorry folks, but this snow lover is NOT NOT NOT IMPRESSED AT ALL!
    NOT EVEN CLOSE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    My wife and I were discussing and unless things change in a hurry, looks like
    maybe a foot.

    WHERE”S THE F’n BEEF??????????????????????????????????????????

    1. Finally OS. Where the heck have you been????

      This so called monumental, crippling storm has become a significant yet ordinary storm. A foot will easily be realized but 18 inches is more realistic than the 30 inches that many of anticipated easy of 495.

      1. I’ve been keeping my wife company watching some TV.
        I was at the computer for awhile, but couldn’t stay the whole evening. I’ll be here for a bit and I will try to sleep for awhile
        and then I’ll probably be up early to see IF I have a late
        Christmas present OR NOT. I’m thinking NOT, but there is
        still time.

        We shall see. NOT IMPRESSED yet.

  117. BTW, temperature has dropped to 18.3 here.
    Now IF it would only snow at a decent rate. I’d say vis right now is between
    1/2 and 3/4 mile. That simply does NOT cut it. There are NO BLIZZARD CONDITIONS YET, anyway. 😀 😀

    1. I’d have to say it’s approaching Blizzard conditions here. Vis is down to less than 1/4 mile. winds gusting over 35 temp at 27

      1. Still tough to say how much snow…around 4 inches maybe a little more. Front walk (south facing) has about 3 inches with a lot of blowing and drifting.

  118. light snow/moderate , foggy, winds around 24mph measured a gust of 32.. Still less than 1 inch of snow.

  120. I think many areas in eastern sections will verify the 20-30 which most of us have been calling for. Sure I had some larger areas 30+ that probably isn’t going to occur. I also think when people post tweets etc… it’s important to realize that’s not a personal forecast but rather posting the info for others to view. Same goes for model data. I would have never forecssted 50 inches, but rather posted the tweet so it can be viewed.

    I never get disappointed in the weather, it is what it is. We are at its mercy and get to enjoy whatever it brings us. I like to think I post politely and never act high and mighty and that’s what I appreciate about TK’s style. I am no pro at this and leave that to the real mets which we have two of who post here.

    1. I take it you are alluding that I act high and mighty. I’m just a health care provider who analyzes weather as a hobby. People can think what they wish about my tone but this storm is not living up to what I expected. That means I vastly overestimated it’s potential and will likely be clearly wrong in the end. Yet, my thoughts have no effect as to what it’s going to do. Even an untrained eye can see that this storm has failed to deliver unless, as OS says, something changes drastically. Night all!

  121. Doing just fine down here in Marshfield.

    Pouring snow, wind increasing.

    8 inches.

    Thinking 25 for a final total.

    Lets see what wind gusts come out of the 12am obs.

    An hour ago, unisys had the low at 989mb, about another 14 mb to go.

    Nowcasting the satellite, I think the low is coming north.

    I think some are giving up too quick on the snow.

    Got a good 10, maybe 12 hrs of the heaviest, most concentrated snow left to go.

    1. TOM, Perhaps. But Nothing much yet.

      Here is the wind for Logan at MIDNIGHT.

      Wind: from the North at 21.9 gusting to 27.6 MPH (19 gusting to 24 KT)

      WIND AROUND to the NORTH.

      Is this thing moving TOO FAR EAST? WHY NORTH?????????

      IF were going into the position we want wind should be NE.

      YES I know we’re on the other side of the Coastal Front. BUT NORTH???

      I DON’T LIKE the LOOKS OF THAT!!

      1. 25 inches will be difficult Tom but your area has the greatest potential to achieve that vs. the rest of the area. Enjoy! 😀

      2. Geostrophic wind. Dense, arctic air crashing towards bombing low pressure. Also, helping to stabilize things and temper the wind.

        Out at buoy 44008, SE of Nantucket, the wind actually just went from 040 to 050. 🙂

    2. It’s pretty wild here too right now. Will be interesting to see what happens when the coastal front passes which looks like it has become stationary again for now.

  122. As TK continues to observe the latest trends, it’s just a matter of time before he posts an update with dramatically reduced snowfall amounts. You could just see it happening right before our very eyes 5 hours ago when the northwest flank of the storm was drying up and the first heavy band from the southeast had difficulty progressing inland.

  123. The Winds at LOgan only gusting to 27.6 mph. Hours ago it was gusting to 37 mph.
    The wind SHOULD BE INCREASING, NOT DECREASING. What is going on????

    Do not not not like what I am seeing.

    1. that banis now over my area. seeing gusts up to around 33 to 36 mph if my anometer is working correctly.

      You know why this storm moved east, mother nature saw that everyone was to prepared

  124. Well it’s windy to our South, that’s for sure.

    Eric Fisher ‏@ericfisher 13m13 minutes ago
    BIG wind RT @capecodweather: Report of 77 mph on Nantucket

  125. I believe the wind report above, but I’m just going to report off the ob report …

    12am wind GUSTS (mph)

    Nantucket : 64 mph

    Hyannis : 59 mph

    Block Island : 61 mph

    Marthas Vineyard : 59 mph

    Plymouth : 45 mph

    Marshfield : 40 mph (Its sound the loudest of the night, for what it is worth)

    Logan way down, in the more stable polar/arctic air.

  127. THAT’S MORE LIKE IT. I just peeked out again. Suddenly the snow has REALLY pikced up and so has the wind. Not sure what was going on, perhaps just needed a little
    time to get going. Looking more like blizzard conditions now for sure.

    I’ll have to re-evalute now.

    I’m feeling better.

    I have no patience. Sorry about that.

    3. Yup, from eastern Long Island, up thru Worcester and northeastward into the Merrimack Valley, the radar is suddenly very green or dark green.

      And there’s plenty more from where that came from. I still BELIEVE !!

      1. I like your optimism. It’s beginning to rub off on me. Keep
        up the good work. I need it, I was feeling so DOWN about this storm. Feeling MUCH better now.

        1. It’s fracking wild out here right now. Even though there is still not a lot of new snow it will start to pile up now. Noticed that the plows are starting to have a tough time of it. I may venture outside in a bit.

  129. heavy stuff in the south end. And lots of cabs still on the road! I guess it’s cheaper than an uber right now… 🙂

  130. You all do know, that with EVERY huge event, there is this quick run to panic and dropping amts when the snow doesnt arrive as quickly as most first thought.

    Really, EVERY big storm.

    Its comical, I sometimes go back and read the old posts on the past large storms.

    Folks who live in NYC or far western Mass, ok ……. they should be disappointed.

    🙂 🙂 🙂

    1. Panic? Nah…If the storm doesn’t realize it’s max potential, I get to open up the urgent care on time on Wednesday. 😉

      2. That’s what’s scaring the med center is if this thing lasts and affects the Wednesday commute and clean up…too much money lost to the emergency rooms. I actually think that Friday’s event even if it’s a moderate event and hits early enough could be major problem if we do get 20 inches on average across eastern MA from this storm.

    1. Just snow blew the driveway so wife can get out in the morning to work. I’m caught under a band that is snowing about 2-3 inches per hours. Amazing!

    2. It’s getting wilder and wilder here. Not sure if the lights just flickered. Wind gusts here now have to be over 50.

  133. http://weather.unisys.com/satellite/sat_vis.php?image=ir&inv=0&t=l3&region=ne

    To continue to add positive vibes ….

    Look at the last 3 hrs of the low and its movement.

    Its captured, headed due north.

    Going to slow down.

    I havent given up on 20-24 in Boston and wouldnt be surprised by 20 out at Worcester. Yes, they have catchup to do, but I could see a convergence area setting up out there as the NNE wind bumps up against the slight elevation increase.

    I think, Boston’s going to snow at least 1 inch every hr the next 6 to 8 hrs, but 3 or 4 of those hrs will have 2 or 3 per hr. That will get you an additional 12 to 15 right there.

  134. Really bad in the city wind is whipping the snow around and visibility is tough . Stay safe everyone.

    1. I know. I’m like a little kid looking out the window admiring the band I am under as the wind continues to strengthen. I wish it was daytime. Why does it always seem to be most exciting at night when you can’t see it???!!!!

    2. Excellent ! I should go to sleep, but I’m not particularly tired. 🙂

      I’ll pay for this later tomorrow ……..

      About 4 hrs to high tide

      When I caught ch 5 at 11:45pm, I was alarmed to see the water nearly to the high tide line already.

      I may try to sleep.

      I really do hope the next several hrs proves snow heaven for areas that were slow to get going. Good luck !!!

  137. “Walked” dogs. Made it about 5 feet out the door and they grabbed their leashes and dragged me back in. LOL! Wild out there!

    1. I hope we get to enjoy some of these heavy snow bands during the daylight hours of tomorrow as anticipated. My 8 and 6 year old are going to have a blast!

  139. I need to get to bed so I can be up for the early morning action, but I can drag myself away from this computer. 😀

  140. I’m figuring very little sleep tonight. Too hyped up. Have to get up in 3 hours to snowplow again to allow wife to get to the hospital.

    1. Its been moderate to heavy snow since about 7:30pm.

      There was 8 inches not too long ago.

      The wind is very strong and there are rattling gusts.

      Good news : it does not appear that the snow is piling on the trees like it did two years ago and I’m hoping that is helping with the power situation.

      1. Wishing you luck down there Tom . My wife told me about Scituate turning off the power heard people were real mad. Take care Tom .

  143. Coastal front seems to be passing here right now…temp down to 24 from 28 a couple of hours ago. Visibility around 1/8th of a mile. Snow measurements pretty impossible right now. I’m on a little rise in the neighborhood (although there is a hill about 4/10’s of a mile to the west of me that is probably about 80 ft higher than here) so it’s tough to tell how much has fallen. Road is basically quiet except for the plows and they are getting a little less noticeable.

  144. Intense band with yellow radar echoes moving over me in eastern CT. Listening for thunder but haven’t heard anything yet. Heavy snow and very windy. Its finally starting to really pile up. Closing in on 5″.

  146. Front still hanging around this area (still 24 while just 5 miles west its 17). Wind gusts at a Wundermap station just NE of me are gusting around 55 mph. Visibility around 1/8 of a mile.

  148. Folks…I just stepped out front…WOW! Visibility is maybe 1/10 th of mile at best. There are drifts on my front walk that are over two feet deep. The side walk which is somewhat protected by a fence and not getting the full brunt of the wind looks to have close to a foot..so I’d say we have at 10 inches of new snow. Lights are flickering more and more. Heading off to bed for a few but setting the alarm for about 5 am.

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