Winter Overtime

137 Comments

2:54AM

SUMMARY…
The calendar says the first day of Spring is Friday but the weather will continue to be more like Winter at times into the early days of Spring. There are no drastic changes to the previous discussion. Today will be a bright, windy, and cold day, with wind finally dying off as high pressure builds overhead by evening. Low pressure will pass south of New England on Friday night, but should be close enough to bring a swath of snow into southeastern New England Friday afternoon to early Saturday, which may end as a mix of snow/rain Saturday morning. Another low pressure area passing northwest of New England late Saturday will bring milder air in right behind the first low, and a cold front will sweep through the region Saturday night with rain to snow showers possible, but a certain return to much colder air for Sunday and Monday as high pressure from Canada builds toward the region then overhead by Tuesday. This high should slip offshore by Wednesday of next week with some moderation in temperature.

SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…
TODAY: Sunny. Highs in the 30s. Wind NW 15-25 MPH gusting 30-35 MPH.
TONIGHT: Clear evening. Increasing clouds overnight. Lows in the 10s. Diminishing NW wind.
FRIDAY: Cloudy. Snow arriving mid to late afternoon from southwest to northeast. Widespread snow at night with some accumulation likely, especially along and south of the Mass Pike. Highs in the 30s. Wind light variable morning, light SE afternoon.
SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of light snow/rain morning. Chance of late day rain showers. Chance of nighttime snow showers. Low 30. High 45.
SUNDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 15. High 30.
MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 10. High 35.
TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 15. High 40.
WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Low 25. High 45.

137 thoughts on “Winter Overtime”

  2. Good morning! 0z Euro had backed off with the snow totals for Friday night. 2-3″ across CT and 1-2″ across most of eastern MA and RI. The bulk of the precip gets shunted southeast.

  6. Euro has backed off for Boston but still has the southern coast as most snow ie Charlie’s areas. 6z gfs also shows the most snow on the south coast. Advisory snows down there in the range of 2-4 or 3-5.

    1. Indeed I think NYC does well I mentioned this last night. Last night was so cold and the wind was still active.

  8. 40.4 inches of snow for NYC so far this winter and they look to be adding to that tomorrow. Normal 25.4 for NYC for an average winter. 10 out of 15 winter’s since winter 2000-01 NYC has had above normal snowfall.

  9. I like the forcast for Boston that JR posted coating to an inch. Had 1-3 further south I’m thinking that may be to low . 2-5 range sounds better.

  10. I did not post any numbers above, but here I’ll toss out a general 1-3 inches, greatest southern MA and RI, a bit more on unpaved versus paved, but much of it comes at night, so paved areas will accumulate some too. NOT a big storm, but enough snow to cause travel issues on untreated surfaces.

    It’s not always about snow amounts. It’s about timing.

    It all goes POOF by Saturday afternoon when we climb well into the 40s, maybe even toward 50 in some areas. Oh but that’s just a tease because the Arctic front coming through Saturday evening will be similar to the one that came through on Tuesday.

    1. Sounds good tk. But I actually think Saturday comes in warmer mid 50s before it goes cold again.

          1. Anxious for snow melt so we can begin our landscape season, I really liked the “mower amours” =)

  11. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/18P/imagery/rbtop-animated.gif

    This has been one long lived cyclone.

    It already hit northeasternmost Australia maybe 7 to 10 days ago when it was moving west to east.

    Got out east of Australia, then, the upper level winds changed, it stalled for a while and now its being pushed back into the coastline again.

    I’m thinking some upwelling is helping to keep it in check. Based on satellite, I’m guessing its a Cat 1 or 2, and I’m guessing that region must see some much stronger cyclones.

    1. I have a colleague doing our Australia trip and their time at he great barrier reef was cancelled due to the storm. She was bummed out if time.

  12. Good morning.

    Looks like we are living in the days of system suppression.
    Nuisance snow is all. As Mark aptly put it, system being shunted South and East.

    Euro lost the Bomb for the 28th. Still shows a little something, however, so we’ll have to wait and see.

    The only thing I can say is that it remains colder than average and “somewhat” active.
    Translation: There still could be snow events in our future. Guaranteed? Nope.
    Possible? Yup

    Still looks “possible” for something around the 28th and also around the 4th of April.

    We shall see.

    Meanwhile, let the melting continue at the current nice and slow pace.

    Woke up to 17 Degrees on the 19th of March. Near record territory? Not even close.
    COLD for this date? You betcha.

  14. Here’s a little quiz from the Loren and Wally show.

    Tim Kelley NECN ‏@SurfSkiWxMan 2h2 hours ago Scituate, MA
    weather quiz presented by @lorenandwally
    only 2 (United) states of have not recoded a temperature over 100
    What are they?

      2. Hmmmm …..

        something is telling me that interior Alaska may have eclipsed 100F, but then, I’m struggling to come up with another option.

        Perhaps a state around the “modifying” Great Lakes.

        The other option might be Florida and while that sounds crazy, you’re never more than a hundred miles away from a modifying seabreeze.

    2. If memory serves, both Alaska and Hawaii have state records of 100. That would be your answer.

      Neither was recent (early 1900s if I remember what the state climatologist said).

    1. Shhh, that’s reminding us of what the weather “could” be. We don’t want to hear that right about now. 😀

  16. We won’t be seeing 100 any time soon…or 90.. or 80, 70 and even 60 for that matter.

    1. At this point, I’d be happy with 45F consistently and that isn’t in the cards consistently for a while.

      1. Even with the drop off in snow, I’ve found the first 18+ days of the month to be an impressive continuation of winter.

        One day to the equinox and Marshfield still probably has 80-85% of the ground snow covered to an average depth of 3 to 6 inches.

        And then of course, yesterday, with nearly full sun, couldn’t get to 30F.

        I just need some semblance of spring to arrive soon, but, I guess I’m going to have to be patient.

  17. You’ll all be happy to know weather has made it into the math classroom.

    Finishing up a unit today on data and analysis.

    I’ve created a data set called January temperatures.

    6, 8, 8, 8, 10, 12, 15, 17, 17, 19

    The students have to calculate the mean, median, mode, range and IQR (inter quartile range).

    Later on in the problem, I add a warm day to the data set, 67F and they have to recalculate the mean and median. Of course, when a data gets an outlier, the mean is not the best representation of the data set and thus, usually the median or the mode becomes a better representation.

    So, I get to teach math and talk weather all at once. I’m happy, but, not so sure about the students. 🙂 🙂

      1. LOL …………. I’ll have to go calculate that.

        We begin mean standard deviation next week, so, I hadn’t figured out that answer yet.

        1. Are these college students, Tom 😉

          And re discussing math and weather with your students….I can see your smile from here

  18. Re: quiz on 100 Degrees.

    The actual question said: have not recorded a temperature over 100

    So, the correct answer was Alaska and Hawaii both records are an even 100, thus
    NOT over 100.

    Alaska 100 °F / 38 °C June 27, 1915 Fort Yukon
    Hawaii 100 °F / 38 °C April 27, 1931* Pahala

    Interesting tricky little question.

  19. It’s pretty incredible in mid March and full sun nothing melting today. Just walked around our estate

  21. Still a decent signal on the GFS for an interesting period in the 3/30-4/2 range with a couple of coastal storm opportunities.

      1. And if we’re going to ride the trend of late for “storms” to either get shunted more south and/or underachieve, I would bet my money on this scenario, maybe even less

  23. If these storms keep getting shunted south, I fear we will continue to see snow threats well into April until the overall pattern shifts north of us. I detest this type of pattern. I do not like cold without snow and in particular when we get into March.

    1. Agree. It’s totally and complete intolerable!!!

      IF it’s not going to snow, get the bleep rid of the COLD!!!!!!
      bring on Spring already!

    2. Agree a 100%. What’s even worse is a cold(38-49) rain.

      Btw clearly in the end gfs won this battle. Euro now has .06 QPF. On
      A different note I see many mets and other pros saying the euro has been superior to the gfs since it’s upgrade.

    3. And here I sit by a south facing bay window with the window open because the sun is so hot. I love this weather. Stood out in the wind this am and it felt invigorating.

  24. I’m in COASTAL RI right now. Plenty of snow on the ground. Have net seen a completely clear lawn yet.

      1. Cool photo! Proof of the March sun at work. Same up here in Andover. Full sun in front with about 5 inches, and mostly shady in the back with a good 8-15 inch base depending on drift areas. Both of which are solid and can walk on with maybe you heal sinking in about an inch.

  27. I ♥ WHW

    Made up of:

    ♂
    ♀

    It’s ☼ out

    How about a tune?

    ♪ ♫

    Just mucking around as it is nearly quitting time. 😀

    1. Mind blowing. Just a couple years from now it’ll be lush and green once again. I went to the islands a couple of days after hurricane Wilma in 2005 and was greeted with a similar scene. Couldn’t imagine anything close to that up here even a direct cat 2 hit.

  29. Eric Fisher went from powable snow likely on Monday to a coating to 1″ today. What a complete joke this man is. He is a TV met with a huge following and I find it very irresponsible of him to make that statement 3 days ago. I know I know most of you love his flowery presentations which is generally void of any accuracy whatsoever. It’s filled with flowery tulips and magical leprechauns.

    This isn’t an opinion poll. Don’t defned him cause I could careless. But I do think you, me and the public deserve better.

    3. I’ll defend him because he’s a personal friend of my husbands and a stand up guy. Saying plowable snow is possible only to have a storm shunted south doesn’t make you a joke. Personal attacks, however, just might.

      1. Whether you or someone you know I are personal friends of his is irrelevant. He is a irresponsible meteorologist.

        1. When TK misses a storm, calling for 8 inches when it eventually snows nearly 20, would you call him irresponsible? Of course not. Because he is a fine meteorologist. Being on TV is not his chosen profession. It’s a different ball game, and you have different people to answer to. It’s not as if he was calling for 2 feeling of snow. “Plowable” is 3 inches. Now it’s down to an inch.

          And of course having a personal relationship with someone is relevant.

          2. Of course it is, your letting your personal relationship cloud your judgment. TK wouldn’t call for a plow able snow event 5 days in advanced for the sole purpose of luring more viewership and disregard accuracy and the very foundation of his profession. I think the situation you present are apples and oranges. Missing the snowfall amount for a imminent storm is different than calling for a plow able event 5 days out. His snow fall forecast general are not made outside of 30 hours. Also TK gives ranges because that’s how weather works.

            1. Nah. my judgement isn’t clouded in the slightest.

              You’re right. TK wouldn’t do that. That’s not his style. And that’s ok. EF said plowable and I belive, issued a wide range of 2-5 (is that right?) he tweaked it down as modeled data changed. You know who else does that? Every other met.

              BTW – this storm, is in fact imminent. It’s area of focus is just 50 miles south of where it was previously thought. That’s all.

              1. It was not immenant on Monday which was well befor his map came out.

                Please don’t lump the responsible Mets in with Fisher. I hate to sound like John but HL was not hinting towards a plow able event on Monday. He uses phrases like “something to keep our eye on”. It’s a responsible approach that Eric should consider.

                1. It’s ok to not like his style, Coastal. To call him an irresponsible joke is both inaccurate and unfair.

                2. I may be too blunt in my description, I know many in today’s society are very sensitive, but I feel it is accurate.

              2. Correct.

                I thought Eric did everything just fine. When the GFS joined the Euro and the CMC & Ukmet were on board, everyone and their uncle were convinced it was coming up here, including Uncle Bernie.

                As they say in the business, shit happens.

            2. Coastal if I may…TK would if management told him that is what is expected. Or he’d quit. I suspect he would chose the latter but not everyone can or wants to do that

  30. I’ve already said winter is over folks, don’t chase the carrot, anyways another work day tomorrow applying limes in Warwick RI. North is down to about 70% bare, will be completely bare by the end of weekend around here. Even on cold days it’s amazing how much damage it does to the snow piles.

    1. No bare ground here in the Boston neighborhoods, at least from my perspective. My yard (back/front/sides) is still covered in several inches of snow aplenty. Of course the downtown areas are pretty bare now.

    2. I would say I am at half bare ground at this point…only the artificially high snow banks where I deposited snow are still around.

        1. No bare ground here except the shoveled walkways and over the septic tank. Still at least a foot average in all parts of my yard.

          1. I should mention I meant my front yard…back is around 75% covered but what is covered is 6 inches or less.

    3. I don’t chase carrots. I forecast weather.

      Though I really do like carrots. Eeeeeh…..what’s up doc?

  31. The CPC continues to show well below normal temps and above normal precip through the end of the month. This matches TK’s thinking about an event for the 28-31 timeframe. I suspect at least the first week in April will be on the wintry side as well.

  33. Well, I thiught when I got here this was a calm, serene place to talk and learn about the weather. But, like every other blog, we have jokesters and others who seem to be angry about everything. It’s too bad, because I like the calm side of this place. I also really like Eric Fisher, by the way.

    2. Mel
      Generally things are just fine around here.
      Please stick around.
      TK doesn’t let it get out of control.

      Sometimes it’s easy to let things going on
      In one’s life to influence posts.
      I have been guilty of that in the past.
      Trust me I try hard.

  34. Just got back from the far reaches of southern MA. Average snowcover down that way is about 8 inches.

  35. May be shutting comments down on the blog for a while. People who have weather related questions will be able to email them to me if I decide to do that.

    1. My apologies if I caused a raucous. It must be all that pent up late winter RAGE! Thanks for being here, TK.

  36. No need for anybody to apologize. We’ll wipe it clean and start fresh next entry. I’ll be working on it soon.

    Some in-house stuff to do first.

  37. Thanks for making this blog so different and better than others TK sorry it has taken such a quick turn on you. I don’t post much cause I don’t know much but rely on you all for the best information available. Coastal I don’t know you except from this blog but you don’t seem yourself at all today. Thanks everyone!

  38. So, I’m in my brother’s NCAA basketball pool. I came in 5th out of 86 people last year. Today, I lost one of my Final Four teams. OOPS.

  39. Civility everyone. Chill. I’ve been guilty a few times of saying provocative things on this blog which stirred the pot. Didn’t intend to, but it happened. I think we all need to establish rules for ourselves that include: 1. No disparaging comments about mets; 2. No insult hurling at fellow bloggers and `residents’ of WHW. Criticism of mets is fine. But, we need to be careful about our tone. We also need to respect one another. Poking fun is fine (eg, “there goes Joshua again, posting about weird faraway places that have zero relevance to our lives in SNE;” or “it’s snowing in Attleboro, but not at Charlie’s”). But, personal insults are not. We’re a big family, with differing tastes, opinions, styles. It’s like a huge Thanksgiving dinner table. Some people you get along with. Others you’d rather not see. Yet, for civility sake you hold your tongue, keep carping to a minimum, and ignore views that you don’t share.

    1. Good comment. Something I try…and don’t always succeed….to remember

      “Great minds discuss ideas; average minds discuss events; small minds discuss people.” …Eleanor Roosevelt

      I’d say we are a blog of great minded people

    2. Yup. Agree. Like I said above
      I have been guilty as well.
      I will take today and renew
      Efforts to be civil. I think generally
      I am. If I am pissed off about
      Something it is awfully easy
      To have it spill over here.

  40. Charlie post us a picture of the 70% bare ground in North Attleboro. Just not seeing it in my drive around town.

    1. I was down there today. Not that much bare ground.

      I was even more impressed by the amount of snow cover left around Holliston, further to the north.

      1. The only real bae ground is on the median on 95 down here. Charlie must be driving and posting :).

        1. Son said south of you into RI bare spots showing up. He takes back roads….the road less travelled is his mantra. In Milford the other day we were surprised at even a few bare areas and less snow than here. But south framingham seemed less than here also. Uxbridge does not have bare spots.

          Overall…..bare spots trumped by snow cover

  41. Two 14 seeds beating two 3 seeds. I had Iowa St going to elite eight Baylor to sweet sixteen. To this point this one of my worst starts to a bracket. My final four of Kentucky, Arizona, Duke, and Villanova still intact for now.

    1. I thought they were going to pull off the comeback but fell just short.

      Great games to start the tournament.

  44. Joshua, your comments were spot on. We have always admitted to being a dysfunctional family but that doesn’t mean we have to disrespect one another or criticize the professionals. I think we have all been a little guilty of crossing that line and out of respect for TK it just needs to stop. He works hard to keep this great blog going and the least we can do is to support and compliment his efforts, not hinder them. Time for a blog group hug and positive thoughts for the future of WHW.

  45. The national snow and ice data center put out an update today ….

    They believe, even with some potential for ice growth to occur btwn now and mid April, that the sea ice maximum this year occurred back on Feb 25th. There was a drop in ice after Feb 25th that they dont think will be fully offset by new ice the next few weeks.

    Thus, at least against the extremely short satellite era window, the earliest and lowest sea ice maximum has occurred this year for the arctic.

    I wonder where all the displaced cold air was that was not properly freezing up the Bering Sea and other areas went to ……. Hmmmmmmmmmm 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂

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