Weekend Update

209 Comments

1:13PM

SUMMARY…
Spring was ushered in by a snow event across much of southern New England. Nothing unusual about that as it has happened many times. The weak disturbance that prolonged the snow into midday Saturday as now exiting and a little sun may pop out for a while across some areas. But this won’t last too long as a trough and cold front will swing through this evening with a few rain showers, then a few snow showers, and a sharp temperature drop. Late-season Arctic air will move in overnight and Sunday and remain in place through Monday, though those 2 days will be bright and dry. After a very cold start to Tuesday as high pressure is overhead, the strong sun and a return southwest flow on the back side of high pressure moving away will allow temperatures to start a moderation. This will also continue into midweek but that period of time will not be as sunny as we’ll have a warm front scoot across the region Wednesday followed by a cold front later Thursday. The timing of this front will determine how warm we get here on Thursday, so there is some uncertainty in that part of the forecast. Further uncertainty exists for the end of the week as there may be storm development on the lingering cold front as it slows down offshore.

SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…
SATURDAY AFTERNOON: Snow showers depart coastal areas early, clouds break for periods of sun, then clouds return by very late from the west with a few rain showers reaching areas west of Boston by then. Highs around 40. Wind light variable, then becoming SW 5-15 MPH.
SATURDAY EVENING (THROUGH 9PM): Mostly cloudy. Rain showers push west to east. Temperatures hold near 40. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
SATURDAY NIGHT (9PM-MIDNIGHT): Variably cloudy. Scattered snow showers from northwest to southeast. Temperatures fall to near 30. Wind W 5-15 MPH with stronger gusts.
SATURDAY OVERNIGHT: Clearing. Lows around 20. Wind WNW 10-20 MPH and gusty.
SUNDAY: Sunny. Highs around 30. Wind W 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
MONDAY: Sunny. Low 15. High 35.
TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 15. High 40.
WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Low 25. High 45.
THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. PM rain showers. Low 40. High 55.
FRIDAY: Cloudy. Chance of rain or snow. Low 35. High 40.

209 thoughts on “Weekend Update”

  2. Thanks TK. Last flakes falling in Wrentham, ended up with a little under 2.5″. Already some melting going on. Definitely looks like a warm rainstorm Thursday. What happens after that’ll be interesting though; the 12z GFS and CMC have completely different takes. GFS doesn’t really develop anything behind the Thursday storm, whereas the CMC develops a sizable snow event. I don’t suppose you have a preference at this point? Obviously that’s quite a ways off.

  4. Sun out with blue sky. Daughter has it figured out. As we had one more burst of snow even with sun out, she said it isn’t that it doesn’t want to stop snowing…..it just doesn’t know how to stop 🙂

  6. Boston Buoy water temp = 34.5F

    That is the coldest I have seen in quite a number of years. A wind off the ocean will not change any snow to rain in Boston for sure. Too bad in December the water is still at its warmest and can ruin any white Christmas potential.

    1. That’s about as cold as I can remember seeing it AND so late in the Season.
      Imagine sea breezes this Spring? We’ll freeze to death in Boston!!!!

    2. With a light SE wind, its holding Logan’s temp to between 33F and 34F also, which is the coldest one around.

  7. Thanks, TK.

    It has been snowing lightly with sun out. Some blue sky with lots of clouds here in Sudbury. But you can hear the snow melting.

  9. Eric Fisher ‏@ericfisher 26m26 minutes ago
    #Boston officially now 1.7″ of snow since yesterday. Record season now stands at 110.3″ and counting.

    2. Wankum I believe had total last night as probably 1.9 between the two events, he was close.

  10. TK – I would say you might as well keep the winter scenery on the blog for quite awhile to come. There are certainly no flowers in my yard popping out right now and likely not anytime soon..maybe in time for Marathon Monday at this point? 😉

  12. 40 on the dot

    And if we are going to have a other major storm, I feel the need to set some ground rules. It is only allowed if I can lose power.

  13. I am under the green blob on the radar and unfortunately, its accurate.

    Huge snow flakes, decent pace to the snowfall, falling straight down with little wind.

      1. It ended here as well. Brightening up too, hopefully some sun again, as there was about 2 hrs ago.

        1. Back to cloudy here Tom . Hope all is well . Brilliant idea regarding the weather/math equations for your class. Was reading a very nice article this week regarding the woman who is retiring at your school. Sounds like a very nice and well liked teacher.

  15. Measured 2.1 inches in B Bay at around 1pm, after some compacting. I think the total here was around 2.4 inches. Perhaps a snow squall or two this evening. Seems that the S Shore once again got the most in Massachusetts. South Shore Snow Warriors. Wouldn’t surprise me if we got one grand finale storm of a foot or more. Sort of like July 4th. Of course, the way we’re going we may get that foot of snow on July 4th. Imagine Keith Lockhart et al. in parka’s in the Hatch Shell.

    1. I was in the areas of Halifax , my town Pembroke and Hanover all earlier this morning and really was not that big of a deal. Last night the roads got a tad bit greasy. I had just got to my Friday night plans and the phone rang to head in ugh!!!!!!! Coming back home after midnight roads were perfect from the city back to home. So in my view we got more than the city last night and the city got more than we did today I believe. The sun is getting stronger and stronger. Regarding being out and about earlier this morning it was snowing like a mist type snowing and the temperature was at 28.

  17. Was in the Franklin Wrentham Norfolk area today. Amazing how much more snow is on the ground there than where I live. Also notable because it is only 8-10 miles north of North Attleboro…

    I just left Logan a bit ago. If they got 1.7″ it did not take long for every last trace of th new snow to disappear.

    1. Snow depth in my backyard in Wrentham is 18″. Granted, we don’t get much sun back there, but there’s still plenty of snow everywhere down here.

      1. I am down to a general 6″ with some bare spots. It looked to me like a general foot in that area so twice plus left on the ground.

        This storm seemed to cause a lot of conversation for an 18 hour event that dropped a general 1-2″ that disappeared far quicker than it fell.

  18. Just did a measurement. Holding strong here in North Reading with an average depth of 13.5 inches in my yard. If Charlie lived up in this area he would be getting to my lawn in May. 🙂

  20. This is a repost from previous blog.

    Today’s 1st AccuWeather Trivia Quiz. (Sort of weather)

    What happened this past Friday?
    A. Vernal Equinox
    B. Supermoon
    C. Solar Eclipse
    D. All of the above

    Today’s 2nd AccuWeather Trivia Quiz. (Sort of weather)

    The ring of fire is home to what percentage of the world’s active and dormant volcanoes?
    A. 30%
    B. 50%
    C. 70%
    D. 90%

    Answers to these “weather” questions later today. I got the 2nd one wrong.

  21. The NWS has now come on board with several shortwaves to watch starting next weekend as well as the April chill. It will be interesting when the TV mets see this as well in the coming days.

    Of course TK has been hinting at all this for the past two weeks. 😉

      1. Yep. Makes sense to me. Grandaughters bday was postponed from this weekend until next so it’ll snow. And to think it was in the 80s when she was born there years ago.

  22. Answers to Today’s AccuWeather Trivia Quizzes.

    What happened this past Friday?
    A. Vernal Equinox
    B. Supermoon
    C. Solar Eclipse
    D. All of the above

    The correct answer is D.

    The ring of fire is home to what percentage of the world’s active and dormant volcanoes?
    A. 30%
    B. 50%
    C. 70%
    D. 90%

    The correct answer is B (I got this one wrong.)

    1. Thanks Longshot. I knew there was an eclipse and the equinox but not about supermoon. I’m a bit surprised by that since it was a beautiful crescent last Monday. But figured answer had to be D. I had no idea for quiz 2 so fun to learn

      1. And I just looked up the supermoon and learned a whole lot more. It was a black supermoon. Very cool. No wonder I was confused. I’ve never heard of it

        What’s special about a black supermoon?
        A black supermoon occurs when the perigee coincides with a new moon rather than a full moon. The result is significantly less spectacular: instead of an extra large, bright moon, all we can see is a slightly larger dark spot in the sky where the moon should be. For most observers, there will be nothing to see at all.

          1. I should have placed the last part in quotes as it was a paste. As you know I enjoy the quizzes. Thanks as always Lomgshot.

    2. I googled this and found the answser to be 75%. I guess it depends on the
      source of the information.

      1. Thanks TK Shows how much I watch TV weather. She’s not been on mornings and I just saw her on website. Must be breaking in slowly. I barely see Chris Lambert

        1. She has been on quite a bit. I don’t see Chris that much but I don’t always catch 7 anyway.

  29. Good morning!! Partly cloudy temp is 34.1 degrees, thought it would have dropped lower than that. Looks like a typical late March week weather wise this week.

    How much rain for midweek Tk? I’m thinking about 1-1.5, this could cause flooding problems? Thank u in advance.

    1. It’s hard to really guess amounts 3+ days out but here is an early estimate:
      Warm front Wednesday probably keeps most of its light rain north of your area and it will be mild enough for rain easily at that time. Cold front Thursday probably has slower timing, coming in later in the day. That front should be active but produce mostly under 1 inch amounts. Fine tuning to come.

  30. Looking at the 0Z Gfs it appears this might be our last chance of snow. Taking the model run as gospel.
    http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fgfs%2F00%2Fgfs_namer_210_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&model=gfs&area=namer&storm=&cycle=00&param=850_temp_mslp_precip&fhr=210&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M&ps=model&use_mins=no&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150322+00+UTC&scrollx=0&scrolly=0

    I noticed this as well, does this represent the start of warmer weather, meaning normal/.http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=360&image=data%2Fgfs%2F00%2Fgfs_namer_360_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&model=gfs&area=namer&param=850_temp_mslp_precip&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150322+00+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=model

    1. The only way we’ll get more frequent warm-ups is to get a trough axis near or west of the Mississippi River. So far that’s not in the cards. Though that run does highlight the tendency for brief shots of warm air (this coming Thursday being another example). Baby steps probably at least through the first 10 days of April, if not beyond, before we start to see something a little larger-scale. The cold reservoir in Canada is still pretty vast as well, and the pattern keeps having the ability to yank pieces down into the Northeast.

      Also, compare the final panels of the 00z to the 06z. Very little similarity which just lets you know that confidence in the later hours of that model run would be less.

  31. Today’s 1st AccuWeather Trivia Quiz.

    The record low maximum for this date is:
    A. 30 degrees
    B. 26 degrees
    C. 24 degrees
    D. 20 degrees

    Today’s 2nd AccuWeather Trivia Quiz.

    The moon was at perigree on Friday. What does perigree mean?
    A. Closest point to the Earth
    B. Farthest point from Earth
    C. Right over the Equator
    D. Right over the North Pole

    Answers later today. I did not get the 1st one right.

  34. Reading both discussions from Taunton and Upton they both are in watch mode for late week next weekend to see if a wave low pressure comes close enough to affect us.

    1. Makes sense. The threat has been presenting itself for some time for the March 27-31 time frame. Probably a few low pressure areas to consider during that 5-day stretch.

      1. Stop pretending we have snow now, the snow is done, it usually doesn’t happen, and this year will be no different, it was a fine year for the snow lovers but it’s all over 🙂

        3. That wasn’t quite the response I expected from you. Then again, maybe I did.

          But you just told us the snow was done the other day too. Did you get any snow Friday and Saturday? Don’t say no, because then you’d just be pretending. 🙂

        4. A reminder Charlie…..we all know you did not get cold rain….

          Charlie says:
          March 20, 2015 at 10:40 AM
          Snow is over Tk for here, maybe up by you your chances are greater, but winter is over here, stick a fork in it, bet on it will be a cold rain
          Reply

          1. I should have bet him this year, and all other years too, because I’d win 75% of the time easily. 🙂 Net gain!

  35. They both will be rain, ground is to warm, sun is to strong lol, winter is over, mark it down 🙂 big week ahead

    1. I will be in Attleboro for dinner tonight, if i don’t see 70% bare ground i will be very disappointed

  36. I think the models are confused. Too many on again/off again systems. We’ll have to just wait and see.

    Taking latest runs as verifying, no more snow. However, that is a very dangerous
    game to play. Time will tell.

  37. Though it was a cold winter overall in eastern North America, including the United States, the Northern Hemisphere also saw its warmest winter on record. This was due to widespread above-average temperatures in western North America, Europe and Asia. NOAA says that record warmth was observed in the western United States, portions of central Siberia and eastern Mongolia.

    http://dsx.weather.com//util/image/w/djfinse.jpg?v=at&w=650&h=356&api=7db9fe61-7414-47b5-9871-e17d87b8b6a0

    1. Yes, that was the theme. We’re in one of the few cold domes on the map. Very mild in many parts of the world.

      As far as snow chances, there will still be a few. I never hang my hat on one run. If I did – say, last Wednesday’s run – we wouldn’t have had any snow yesterday and today’s high would have been 37F.

      Regarding Charlie’s comments on winter being over, stepping outside just now reminds me that winter’s very much literally on our doorstep. It’s January cold out there, and it’s been that way pretty much for the past 4 days or so. I have plenty of friends and co-workers who like spring, but none of them would say that a day like yesterday, today, tomorrow, or most of next week feels anything like spring. Even days in the 40s with nighttime lows below freezing will feel distinctly cool, especially at the coast. I think we have to wait a while – at least 2 weeks – before seeing consistently springlike weather. And even then we’ll probably be faced with cutoff lows, raw days, interspersed with nice spring episodes.

      1. Good comments, Joshua and OS. We also had a cold winter in the northeast last year while globally we had the warmest year on record.

    1. You’re right. I’m a cold weather person, but today feels cold to me, so much so that I’m complaining about the cold! Also yesterday I did my 8 mile run in the afternoon when it apparently hit 40F in Boston. Well, that was the coldest 40F I’ve experienced in a while. It was really cold and raw and uncomfortable, even though the snow melted very quickly.

  40. Good for you for running. I run 3 miles 3-4 times a week. My speed is very slow. People who walk are faster then me

  41. Winter still here in Andover that’s for sure. Just walked through the woods out back on top of the 12 inches or so of crusty snow. Lost two large poplar trees in the wind the other day. Firewood for next year!

  42. Hey Charlie, you should go visit Texas today. You can find your rain down there, oh and thunderstorms too! I mean REAL thunderstorms, not the “fake” ones we have up here. 😀

    1. This is a question meant in the friendliest most genuinely inquisitive spirit possible : What is the intense emotional investment people seem to have in the weather really about? The weather is going to be what it is no matter how angry, upset or desiring of a particular outcome people are. It seems like such an odd thing to get so cranked up about – something one cannot possibly have any control over but then I suppose one could say that about professional sports or any number of other things? Again, absolutely no offense meant, would just be interested in hearing people’s thoughts.

      1. I like sitting back and enjoying. Life is too short to wish for a new season and not just enjoy the day.

        I love the seasons but I also like in between. Like Mother Nature I am never quite ready to let go of the old but also like the tease of the new. I don’t think I could ever find an area that offers the best of everything outside of New England. But I’m prejudiced. Or just lucky. No idea which

  44. All the way up to 31 at Logan. A veritable heatwave! Wind chill is 18 now, not in the single digits like earlier. 😉

      1. The direct sunlight, as expected for this time of year, is warm, but if you are in the wind in any way whatsoever, the impact is negated. This is a cold day for early Spring.

    2. 32 with my thermometer. Was out this morning. Sun is still causing melting, but that wind bites. No, I mean it really BITES!

      1. Not much melting in North Reading. Really starting to get down about all the snow still left here. 🙁

  45. so yesterday first full day of spring…. lol went skiing and it was snowing at wawa. then got warm and iwas skiing with a sweatshirt on and my sleeves rolled up. It was fun. Then went bowling. TK have you attempted ski bowling for me, If you can let me know 😀

      1. I share the feeling! These places have snow, but soon no skiers except season pass holders. We have to go further north as April moves forward. I am watching Cannon to see how long it stays open.

      1. Yeah. That is where I made a path with the snowblower to get to the fence and then to the back yard so my home heating oil can be delivered. There is grass across the street in the woods that face south.

        1. We have that too for the same reason. I’d say snow outside my office (also home) window is at least 18 -20 inches. I’ll have to take a pic. South facing is still about 10-12

        1. Odd not off. But also did pick up here. Just not to the point where I’d think it would be special weather statement wind

  50. Hmm….. I am going to Florida in the middle of this week for 5 days and I think I am arriving back on the 30th in the middle of some kind of weather event. I know it’s a ways off but looking like mixed precipitation including snow …?

    1. Thanks OS. If in fact the AO/NAO remain positive, he may have a point. It will be interesting if TK changes his thoughts as well. This morning NWS is now hinting that Thursday’s cold front could move farther offshore keeping any storminess away.

      1. I think the Thursday front will get offshore further. But we are not out of the woods on the late March period. Something coming along may kick some event into motion around March 30-31.

        After that I still see a below normal temp pattern but west to east flow in domination with just short shots of chill between more seasonable to brief mild periods.

        Still eying mid April or so for a larger scale pattern change.

        1. That would be nice if it warms up for my birthday on April 18th.
          I have seen it all in terms of weather on my birthday snow heat wave etc. The only thing that has never
          happened on my birthday is a thunderstorm.

    1. If those 55-60 degree temps for Thursday verify, then those bare spots may become a reality for many of us. Hopefully not too much rain though for my basement.

  53. That is one of DT’s better write-ups, in my opinion. I love his point about models not creating weather, but simulating the atmosphere. I also love the fact that he pointed out the CMC’s depiction of a large East Coast storm around March 24-25. It did indeed had that and no other model ever locked onto that scenario. They did not all have the exact same alternate solution but the CMC was the only major outlier, proving it was indeed performing very poorly. I have not been impressed with that model ONE SINGLE BIT this past season. I’d put it near the bottom of the list with only the NOGAPS lower in rank.

    1. Thanks TK. I thought it was an excellent write up as well.
      I was wondering if you might like the reference to the models and atmosphere.
      I thought that he had been talking to you. 😀

  54. Answer to Today’s AccuWeather Trivia Quizzes.

    The record low maximum for this date is:
    A. 30 degrees
    B. 26 degrees
    C. 24 degrees
    D. 20 degrees

    The answer is C.

    The moon was at perigree on Friday. What does perigree mean?

    A. Closest point to the Earth
    B. Farthest point from Earth
    C. Right over the Equator
    D. Right over the North Pole

    The answer is A.

  56. Looking at the weekly projected temps for the week on ch7 and tomorrow is the only day in the 30s rest of the week 40s and up.

  57. I tried to be positive about the weather today, I really tried.

    The sun was nice.

    But struggling to 32F with wind on March 22nd is plain awful.

    Too cold and its been this way for too long.

    If its 55F Thursday, it can rain 3 inches and I’ll still be happy. Just so tired with having to spend so much effort to stay warm.

    2. Same. Done with it. Horribly cold today for March 22. Youth and high school sports will never get on the fields.

      1. I hope your right John.

        So true Mel. The nice new sports fields accompanying the new Marshfield High School are all snow covered.

        1. That’s because they weren’t smart enough or they were
          too cheap to copy the Red Sox and sprinkle magic black
          sand all over the fields. 😀

          1. Btw, Fenway has been ALL CLEAR for days now.
            The Black sand really worked well Absorbing the sun’s energy and spreading the MELT. 😀

      2. No big deal. Done that. Been there. Not the first time. Not the last time. When I was in school, we used the gymnasium. 😀

        I was out a couple of times today. I didn’t mind it at all.
        Yes, it did feel cold, but this Winter has been so cold, today
        didn’t feel all that bad to me at all. Did not put a Winter coat on.
        Had a sweatshirt under a Spring weight jacket and was perfectly fine. 😀

        1. I guess I’m psychological, when it comes to the weather and its not a good psychological. 🙂 🙂

          25F in January through mid February doesnt bother me.

          But, 32F at the end of the 3rd week of March, I cant handle.

          I’d be setting myself up for this disappointment that I’m expressing if I was expecting even just 55F each day going forward. I know its not realistic.

          I just want average …….. mid to high 40s would be nice. 🙂 🙂 🙂

          1. To which post does the ditto apply? Confusing.

            Tom, I hear you. I usually bitch more than anyone, but I have resigned myself to dealing with it. What can I do anyway? IT will be what it will be.

  58. I think you summer fans are going to get your wish this year with a lot more heat and humidity than last summer.
    Still got 3 of my final four teams alive. Villanova hurt me last night and I thought about picking NC State initially. I should have went with my first insticts. Oh well.

    1. I’m in first place JJ go figure I haven’t a clue. I think my score is 59 how’s that sound.

      1. Well I was almost right.
        Average high for 3/31 is: 50.9
        Ast day the average high is 50 is: 3/28 50.0

      2. March 28th ….. seems to be climbing, on average, by about .3F per day. You also have March 31 correct as well OS !!

      1. whether it does or not, my guess is if you asked 9 out of 10 people whether it was cold today in Massachusetts, they would answer yes. You and Charlie on the other hand….

        2. No, I said it was cold, but because of the extreme cold
          this Winter, it didn’t feel bad to me. There is a difference.

          1. And, btw, I Want SPRING to come as much as the next person. Just trying to make the best of what we have.

        3. Mel lump me in with Charlie and I may have to come find you :). That said….it is all in the mind. If you think it feels good….it does. Try it. I had the window open all day in two parts of the house. Felt great and smelled like fresh air

    2. Impressive on the heels of February.

      The pattern has been locked in for a while, with subtle tweaks to it that have helped shut off a majority of the snow.

      But these longstanding patterns dont break down easy and thats what makes me think moderating for good may be a while in coming.

  64. NWS Albany, NY discussion for next Saturday. We shall see.
    SOMETHING TO WATCH FOR SATURDAY IS A COASTAL WAVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG
    THE GULF STREAM. A COUPLE OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE CLOSER THE COAST
    THAN THE OPERATIONAL RUNS AND GIVEN THE THERMAL PROFILES IN
    PLACE…PRECIP TYPE WILL BE AN ISSUE /MAINLY SNOW/. AT THIS
    TIME…WPC COORDINATION FAVORS AN EASTWARD DEVELOPMENT/TRACK AS WE
    WILL KEEP POPS RATHER LOW AT THIS TIME.

  65. Hi John…. That is a great score. My score is a 42 right now with Witchita State beating Kentucky. It always seems to me the people who don’t follow college basketball end up doing better than the people who do watch college basketball like myself in these pools.

  66. Breaking News!
    Charlie spotted driving around the North Attleboro area tossing black sand onto people’s snow covered lawns! 😉

    Kidding of course…
    Working on The Week Ahead.

    1. I wonder if Bill Self’s job security is an issue …..

      Kansas seems to have a high seed every year and I cant recall them getting deep into the tournament very often.

  68. Second straight year they went out in round of 32. I thought they were a weak 2 seed.
    Later on tonight I think Northern Iowa beats Louisville. Louisville can’t shoot at all and were lucky to get by UC Irvine on Friday.

  69. Dayton looks to continue their run as 11 seed currently beating Oklahoma. They got big breaks in the early rounds as a low seed playing the play in game at home and playing the next two games in Columbus Ohio an hour away from their campus.

    1. Thats bad ……. Where are they going to get their dry season water from if there’s no snow to melt ?

  77. Those were taken this evening at my mom’s in Attleboro. Highway median on I-95 was 90% bare between the 495 and 295 exits but where actual humans live off the highway its still very much snowcovered

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