Monday Forecast Update

96 Comments

7:14AM

DAYS 1-5…
High pressure hangs on with another nice day to start the week, though there is still some smoke aloft in the sky from Canadian forest fires. Warm front / cold front combo still expected for Tuesday and Wednesday with more cloudiness, a risk of a few showers Tuesday and a better shot and showers and thunderstorms Wednesday. Timing of Wednesday’s cold front is key in determining high temperature and coverage and intensity of any thunderstorms. The earlier the front, the less intense the storms will likely be. A later frontal arrival would mean more heat and a stronger storms. Will try to pinpoint timing by tomorrow’s update. Drier air mass arrives Thursday but a disturbance aloft may bring at least some cloudiness and possibly a few showers. Great Summer weather arrives at the end of the week.
TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs in the 80s except 70s South Coast. Wind S up to 10 MPH.
TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows in the 60s. Wind light S.
TUESDAY: Variably cloudy. Risk of brief periods of light rain. More humid. Highs 70s South Coast, 80-85 elsewhere. Wind S 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Variably cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms likely in the afternoon. Lows 65-70. Highs 70s South Coast, 80s elsewhere. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.
THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Slight chance of showers. Lows 60-65. Highs 75-83.
FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Lows 60-65. Highs 78-85.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 11-15)…
Slowing timing of systems slightly to allow for a great Summer weekend July 11-12. Trough moving through from west brings the chance of showers/thunderstorms July 13-15. Temperatures near to above normal to start followed by a slight cooling trend.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 16-20)…
Flat ridge of high pressure from the South Central US through the Southeast and off into the Atlantic, still not far enough north to promote big heat in the Northeast, but jet stream far enough north to allow for near to above normal temperatures. Disturbances coming along the jet stream may produce a few episodes of showers/t-storms.

96 thoughts on “Monday Forecast Update”

  1. REPOST OF 2 COMMENTS

    Old Salty says:
    July 6, 2015 at 6:56 AM

    Good morning.

    I still am getting conflicting information regarding thunderstorm potential.
    There seems to be a timing issue for the main instability on Wednesday.
    NAM most aggressive and robust with timing for severe. GFS and CMC
    take front through too early in the day.

    SREF doesn’t show much in the way of tornado potential at this time.

    6Z NAM

    CAPE

    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=qc&run=00&mod=nam&stn=CAPE&comp=1&run2=00&mod2=nam&stn2=CAPE&hh2=000&fixhh=1&stn2_type=prog&mode=latest&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&hh=066

    LI

    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=nam&run=00&stn=LI&hh=066&map=qc&stn2=CAPE&run2=00&mod2=nam&hh2=066&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&mode=latest&stn2_type=prog&date_type=dateo

    EHI

    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=nam&run=00&stn=LI&hh=066&map=qc&stn2=CAPE&run2=00&mod2=nam&hh2=066&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&mode=latest&stn2_type=prog&date_type=dateo

    Old Salty says:
    July 6, 2015 at 6:57 AM

    EHI

    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=nam&run=00&stn=EHI&hh=066&map=qc&stn2=LI&run2=00&mod2=nam&hh2=066&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&mode=latest&stn2_type=prog&date_type=dateo

    Old Salty says:
    July 6, 2015 at 7:00 AM

    From the NWS re: Wednesday

    SFC CAPEVALUES COULD REACH OR EXCEED 1500J/KG PARTICULARLY IF DWPTS REACHTHE LOW 70S IN SPOTS AS POTENTIAL FORECAST. IN ANY CASE…THUNDERIS LIKELY ASSUMING LIFTING OF THE EARLY DAY LOW CLOUDS…WITHHEAVY RAIN THE MOST LIKELY THREAT…SVR THREAT IS LOW GIVEN THELACKING SHEAR/ENHANCED LAPSE RATES…BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR OVERTHE NEXT 48 HOURS. HIGHS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON HOW QUICKLY ANYCLOUDS CLEAR…IF THEY DO…SOME TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90ARE POSSIBLE AS H85 TEMPS APPROACH +17C.

  4. 23 days until Patriots Training camp!!!! They have added a few seats at the practice facility, when it’s completely full and on hill, it holds around 30K, can’t wait!!! Enjoy the day everyone 🙂

        1. GoodHell should be placed in a gigantic waffle on that is turned on!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

  5. Thank you TK.
    It always comes down to timing, doesn’t it?
    We shall see about Wednesday.

  6. Farrellism

    I have put the BEST lineup we could possibly have on the field today.
    Next Game Hanely goes back to left and Napoli to 1st.

    Gotta love that steaming pile of Crap.

    1. Thanks Tom a nice warm one for my birthday and I’m off till Wednesday, pool bound all day.

  10. Hmmm

    Canadian Models showing quite a bit of instability for Tuesday after the passage
    of the warm front. High EHI values. Canadian high resolution models don’t go
    out as far as Wednesday yet. IF we get a trigger on Tuesday, we could have some
    potent storms tomorrow. We shall see about Wednesday.

    1. I’m 44 old salty. My wife is six years older and she turned the big 50 in June. I am having a party here Saturday for her 50th.

  12. Humidity is going to be in place when that front comes through so one ingredient you need for thunderstorm development. Now it comes down to timing. At the very least could get some good downpours with the atmosphere loaded with moisture.

    1. I’m watching the EHI and Vorticity Generation Potential.

      I see it sneaking up there over both days, tomorrow and Wednesday.
      Waiting on 9Z SREF and 12Z regular model runs for updates.

      Helicity not showing on SRED, BUT EHI is up there on NAM and the Canadian models. IF you plug in CAPE into the formula to get the calculated EHI values then helicity has to be at least 50-75, which is NOT now showing
      on the SREF. SO the models are not in agreement.

  13. Just like winter where we can’t get agreement why would be any different in summer when dealing with thunderstorm potential. When the SREF has shown POTENTIAL tornadic development there was either a tornado touch down which happened to be two back on June 23rd and last Wed July 1st there was no tornado touch down but there was a thunderstorm that prompted a tornado warning on part of the Cape.

    1. AND there was a tornado warning in Essex County, MA with a funnel
      cloud reported near Newburyport. SO there were 2 tornado warned storms
      with rotation.

      So far, the SREF is showing diddly squat for both days.
      BUT NAM and CMC is picking up on significant EHI which is conflicting
      information.

      AND add to that, Dr. Gregg Forbes has been consistently placing us
      in a TORCON of 2-3. AND TK was/is concerned and mentioned
      RIGHT moving Super cells capable of tornadic activity.

      So something could still be up. Need to watch carefully.

  14. At the very least some heavy downpours will accompany the front as it is going to turn quite sticky with atmosphere loaded with moisture. Now have to figure out is just some heavy downpours or does severe weather come into play.
    We got a watcher and leave it at that for now.

  16. 9Z SREF severe parameters not impressive at all.
    Shows convection in the morning on Wednesday.

  19. Latest from TWC

    Wednesday, July 8, 2015
    Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms in south ME, south NH, south NY, east MA, CT, RI, NJ. TOR:CON – 2 to 3.

  20. Thank you TK. Sorry I haven’t been here much but we just moved from Plymouth to Halifax and have been quite busy. I hope everyone had a great 4th of July, despite all that rain that Charlie predicted. 🙂

    1. You mean the 1/1000 inch we received late Saturday Afternoon just before it
      cleared out?

    2. Best wishes in your new home. Halifax is a lovely community. We spent a lot of time at Fieldstone Farm for horse shows. Hmmmmm…..seems a lot of our time spent around the state relates to horses. Either way, beautiful area. Very exciting.

    3. Wow thought you loved Plymouth. Where abouts in Halifax. My son and I get haircuts at John and son barber shop it’s across from the Walmart in that strip mall where the gas station is. The wait can be tough but $10 haircuts and very good cut as I’m very picky with my hair . Daryn the son can do logos on the Kids head for a few dollars more pats, Bruins etc and he is quite the artist.

  21. I hope the ridge continues to hold this high cloudiness at bay to the southwest.

    If so ….. might be the reddest sunset of the summer so far tonight, because the smoke from the wildfires is fully entrenched now in the northeast.

  22. 12Z NAM shows convection around 15Z on Wednesday, which is not optimal
    for severe weather for sure.

    Composite reflectivity for 15Z (11AM) on Wednesday

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2015070612&time=INSTANT&var=REFC&hour=051

    CAPE

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2015070612&time=INSTANT&var=CAPE&hour=051

    It is beginning to look like everything works out for the best. Not looking like
    any severe weather. Still watching in case things change.

    Pretty good instability for tomorrow, just not sure of a trigger for tomorrow.
    We have a trigger for Wednesday, but looks like Mother Nature pulls the trigger
    at a sub-optimal time for severe, but a GREAT time for non-severe.

  23. Keep an eye make sure that front doesn’t slow down some. One thing were not going to miss out on are those high dew points for tomorrow and Wednesday.

  24. We don’t want that front slowing down if that front comes cutting through during peak heating look out with those dew points up there and front which will provide the lift. Right now looks like we may dodge a bullet.

    1. Agree. Right now it looks like we escape the worst of it, however, since
      the front is depicted to move very slowly (look at the 24 hour movement above),
      it would NOT take much to delay its passage until peak heating. That could
      spell serious trouble.

      1. I must say, so far the SPC is not impressed/concerned with
        anything in New England over the next couple of days.
        We shall see if that changes.

  26. Thanks TK.

    So far this early summer the weather has been near perfect. Bleep that ridge away and keep the high humidity away.

  28. WOW!

    12Z GFS has virtually no instability showing for Wednesday at ALL.
    Looking at projected surface winds, it has the front passing the area
    around 12Z to no later than 15Z.

    It has the instability for tomorrow afternoon and most North of the Boston
    area. Will there be a trigger for tomorrow? Probably not, other than day time
    heating. Unless a pre-frontal trough develops.

  30. Happy Birthday, John (and your wife)!

    As Hadi noted, keep HHH away. Though it may (and probably will) hit us at some point, it’s certainly not looking like a summer of sizzling heat. June gave us none, really. July looks to top out at average highs so far. We’ll see about August, but by then (especially in the latter half of the month) HHH doesn’t have quite the same punch as it would in June and July.

    Tom, interesting article in the NY Times on Nunavut. The article is on a soccer tournament in Canada’s northernmost and largest territory.

    http://www.nytimes.com/2015/07/05/sports/soccer/blooming-in-a-barren-land.html?_r=0

    By the way, they are having a really miserable `summer’ up there in Nunavut. The bay at Kimmirut is still frozen, though breaking up a bit. Temperatures are still way below average (maxing out at 41-43F – average for July 6 is 55F)). And, it’s raining and foggy every day. There’s even a chance of a little wet snow later this week.

    1. Great article …. I like how along with the soccer, the players are getting to experience things in life we take for granted, like a simple trip to the movies.

  31. John – we do love Plymouth but had an opportunity come up that we couldn’t pass. It is actually right on the Halifax/Pembroke line, off Oak St. I have heard very good things about John’s barber shop. Darren has actually been the DJ at our company holiday parties. He is quite the entertainer.

    3. Wow that’s funny.he actually cut my hair the last two times usually it’s his dad. I’m in every two weeks like clockwork as I like mine buzz style

  32. I’m Really confused now. Latest 12Z CMC has NO instability for tomorrow OR
    Wednesday. It is devoid of instability. Well it is almost non-existent.

    Here is Cape for tomorrow

    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=qc&run=12&mod=gemglb&stn=CAPE&comp=1&run2=12&mod2=gemglb&stn2=CAPE&hh2=030&fixhh=1&stn2_type=prog&mode=latest&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&hh=033

    Big woof

    Wednesday

    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=qc&run=12&mod=gemglb&stn=CAPE&comp=1&run2=12&mod2=gemglb&stn2=CAPE&hh2=060&fixhh=1&stn2_type=prog&mode=latest&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&hh=054

    I “presume” the reason for this is expected CLOUDINESS or MARINE STRATUS???
    OR BOTH. What’s up with that????????????

  33. NWS discussion at 2:20 PM includes:

    OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES…
    LITTLE CHANCE IN THE SYNOPTIC SCALE PATTERN AMONGST OPERATIONAL
    AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE AT 00Z.

    Why the BLEEP are they using 0Z guidance in a 2:20PM discussion.

    THAT SUCKS in my opinion. Absolutely BLOWS CHUNKS!!!!!!!!!!

    Why bother.

    1. Finally at 3:36 PM they drop the 0Z talk.

      NWS expects the front to slow down as it approaches SNE on Wednesday.
      They do NOT expect anything severe on Wednesday.
      They do expect showers and thunderstorms tomorrow and Wednesday and additional wet weather through the end of the week as the front stalls
      just to our South.

      Sure does not look like anything close to a dry pattern to me. 😉

      1. Yes, I do think that 12z GFS run put a bit more uncertainty into the late week timeframe.

  34. 18Z NAM is in.

    It shows not much for tomorrow around Eastern Sections, but shows activity to the West. Then shows convection in Eastern sections in the 12Z-15Z time frame.
    Then it shows more rain in 3 batches on Thursday into Friday AM, some HEAVY.

    My how things have changed.

    1. I’m not surprised …..

      In many parts of the northern hemisphere, the flow is so amplified that the models have to be struggling with features either over the ocean or dropping down from the arctic that are then having effects on things in the mid latitudes.

      I’m sure perhaps thats a statement that could apply at most anytime, but, in my opinion, in this particular pattern, I think its especially true.

      1. Whatever the cause, sure is screwy.
        Watched Barry B last night and he exuded confidence for
        a nice week of weather. Oh Boy.

  35. Hi all!

    Careful not to react too much to model changes. For one thing, they are likely over-doing the wave train after midweek. However, I do believe we will have to watch for a wave or 2 somewhere between Thursday and part of Friday. This stuff could just as easily still end up south of here. After all, if we had believed some of the models straight out a few days ago, we’d have been convinced of a soaker for all of the region for July 4. Yes, it did rain and get wet for a while especially W & N, but even with that it was NOT a bad day and it was a beautiful evening, even with low pressure passing south of us. Weather does not always follow text book diagrams. 🙂

    As for Wednesday, fast enough timing IMO that we may avoid the severe weather threat. But as the front comes in it will be losing some steam and it may hang around enough to allow much of the day to be unsettled.

        1. You live in NE what else do you expect. We live in a changeable climate zone due to our latitude and closeness to the ocean. If you dislike it so much by all means move to a “growing” city that you always talk about. I found the weather was great most or the day.

    1. Hi Emily. It was one of those Wonderful feel summer days, wasn’t it? I so love New England

  37. TK, I was waiting for exactly your remark. 😀

    Re: today
    84-86 Degrees across the area, on the Northern side of the warm front.
    Not too shabby.

    Is a warm front really going to pass through OR will it just wash out? Dew point at
    Logan is 64, (66 Dew Point Norwood. No sea breeze) but some of that might be due to the sea breeze? No stinken sea breeze here. Still 82. It feels like a STINKER out there. Just put the trash out and I am sweating bullets!!!

    Current surface map. Honestly I think we can REMOVE the warm front.
    that air mass is HERE already!

    http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/sfc/90fwbg.gif

  39. According to Barry’s latest blog due to the very warm temps in the Pacific and cold temps in the Atlantic, the rest of the summer (July – September) will have temps near or slightly below normal with very few days of persistent HHH. Those cooler temps could linger into the fall as well. However, there is a bigger threat now of tropical systems forming near the east coast and Gulf of Mexico during August and September.

    Do you agree with this, TK?

    1. I don’t think the cool will be as pronounced as predicted. It’s a toss-up regarding the tropics. Don’t expect much activity.

  40. Up at peabody. No sea breeze at home.
    Big whif of ocean here with a bit lower temperature.

  41. Great blog by Barry. I very much agree with his thoughts. Looks like generally near average weather through the end of summer. Below average rain though (although Barry’s blog didn’t mention precip). Given a strong El Nino, we should run near normal temps and below normal precip into fall, before switching to a warm and potentially wet pattern for much of winter (interested if TK agrees on this).

    Talking tropics: All signs continue to point to a well below average season for the Atlantic as a whole, but I am concerned for the East Coast. While most of the basin is shut down, we have at least as good a chance of a significant impact this year as in any other year. Plenty of warm water off the Southeast coast, and that area doesn’t have to worry about Saharan dust or El Nino induced shear…

    Side note- Barry very briefly mentioned the MJO in his blog; that’s probably the big global weather story of the day though, we’ve broken the record (set earlier this year) for strongest MJO amplitude on record! In summer no less! And it’s helped touch off a line of typhoons in the West Pacific, which will continue to spread into the East Pacific next 7-10 days.

    http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/mtsat/nwpac/rgb-l.jpg

  43. Great news for soccer fans in the US. Yes Charlie football aka soccer is a sport and the most popular in the world.

    For anyone who thinks soccer doesn’t sell in the US. The game beat out the NHL and NBA finals rating wise. And to boot it was a woman’s game.

    1. Soccer is popular amongst kids in America, it just doesn’t translate once they become teenagers and adults, it is the most popular in the world, but again there’s nothing even remotely close to the NFL in America. Plus hadi it could have been any sport, there just rooting for USA. I’ve been hearing about how soccer becoming a 3rd or 4th sport here for 30 yrs, it hasn’t happened yet. Imagine if they had American football in the Olympics, it would dominate here in America 🙂

  44. Barry Burbank said front is coming through sometime Wednesday afternoon
    allowing possibly POTENT thunder storms. Now I am totally confused_!_@#*(*@#(*!(*

    1. Nothing to be confused about. Model runs are just simulations. They are not going to be that great with timing of fronts and features. Even just 2 hours will make a big difference. The front looks slower to me and may hang up coming through. I still say slightly lower risk of severe weather but greater risk of activity being around well into afternoon.

      When the front settles to the south and sits there Thursday a ripple of low pressure comes along. Remains to be seen how much that buckles the front back to the north and how far north any rain area gets.

  46. Now the models have picked up on the front slowing down for tomorrow.
    Instability elevated through 21Z most models and all the way to 0Z on some.

    Will there be severe? Marginal in my opinion. Biggest threat is heavy, possibly
    flooding rains. As front slows could be training convection adding to the flood
    threat.

    We shall see.

    EHI levels are not too elevated. SREF tornado ingredients and parameters are virtually non-existent, so hopefully there is no threat for tornadoes. Helicity values
    are fairly low, certainly under 100.

    One caveat. I did not like that tornado generation potential index of .3 for Eastern MA.
    Will have to monitor that.

    TK, any threat of tornadoes in your estimation?

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