Saturday Forecast Update

73 Comments

8:58AM

DAYS 1-5…
First, the weekend: Northeast to east air flow dominates today as high pressure builds to the north of New England. This feature was well-forecast by several of the medium range models for many days in advance. I actually thought it would take place a little further east and we’d have a more southerly flow initially, but during the last few days it became more apparent that the model forecast were likely to be correct. Anyway, the result of this correct model forecast is lots of low cloudiness for parts of southeastern NH and eastern MA especially this morning, trying but failing to completely make it onto Cape Cod and into RI, but also breaking up by midday for at least partial sun where the day started with a low overcast. During this time, above all of this there will be some increasing high and mid level cloudiness from the west northwest as a warm front begins its approach. This warm front closes in tonight as clouds thicken and eventually showers arrive overnight. The front will push eastward across the region Sunday morning which may see additional showers and even a few thunderstorms. As we get into the warmer and humid air behind that front, it may not clear all that much as clouds remain dominant, but the rain chances should go down, but not to zero. Any breaks and sunshine could ignite a few isolated to scattered showers/thunderstorms during the afternoon, and an approaching cold front may trigger a few more Sunday night. So while no wash-out, Sunday will be unsettled.
First few days of next week: The cold front that approaches on Sunday night will wash out and dissipate over southeastern New England Monday, but provide just enough focus for the potential of pop up showers and thunderstorms. Also, not looking for a push of dry air with this front, so humidity levels will drop only slightly at best. As this is taking place, upper level high pressure will be building across the East Coast of the US and finally allow a stretch of hot weather to get underway in southern New England Tuesday and into midweek…
TODAY: Variably cloudy. Highs in the 70s, coolest at the beaches. Wind NE to E 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Showers develop west to east late at night. More humid. Lows in the 60s. Wind SE to S 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Showers likely and a slight chance of thunderstorms early through mid morning. Isolated showers and thunderstorms possible in the afternoon. Humid. Highs in the 70s, a few lower 80s possible interior with any sun. Wind S 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated showers/thunderstorms. Lows in the 60s. Highs 78-85.
TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows 65-72. Highs 86-93.
WEDNESDAY: Hazy sun. Lows 67-74. Highs 88-95.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 30-AUGUST 3)…
HHH weather Thursday July 30 with a chance of thunderstorms late day or nighttime with a cold front. Return to fair, less humid, but very warm Friday July 31 and Saturday August 1. HHH again Sunday August 2 with a risk of showers/thunderstorms. Fair and warm Monday August 3.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 4-8)…
Pattern favors showers/thunderstorms very early in the period then mostly fair weather returning. Temperatures near to above normal.

73 thoughts on “Saturday Forecast Update”

  1. JimmyJames posted this…

    6z GFS for tomorrow
    CAPE
    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=qc&run=06&mod=gfs&stn=CAPE&comp=1&run2=06&mod2=gfs&stn2=CAPE&hh2=042&fixhh=1&stn2_type=prog&mode=latest&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&hh=039
    LIFT
    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=gfs&run=06&stn=LI&hh=039&map=qc&stn2=CAPE&run2=06&mod2=gfs&hh2=039&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&mode=latest&stn2_type=prog&date_type=dateo
    EHI
    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=gfs&run=06&stn=EHI&hh=039&map=qc&stn2=LI&run2=06&mod2=gfs&hh2=039&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&mode=latest&stn2_type=prog&date_type=dateo

    and this…

    6z NAM for tomorrow
    CAPE
    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=nam&run=06&stn=CAPE&hh=039&map=qc&stn2=EHI&run2=06&mod2=nam&hh2=039&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&mode=latest&stn2_type=prog&date_type=dateo
    LIFT
    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=nam&run=06&stn=LI&hh=039&map=qc&stn2=CAPE&run2=06&mod2=nam&hh2=039&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&mode=latest&stn2_type=prog&date_type=dateo
    EHI
    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=nam&run=06&stn=EHI&hh=039&map=qc&stn2=LI&run2=06&mod2=nam&hh2=039&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&mode=latest&stn2_type=prog&date_type=dateo

    OS posted this…

    The Euro potent tropical system depicted yesterday is gone.
    It now has later development with in running up the coast inland and not nearly as strong.

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2015072500/ecmwf_mslpa_us_10.png

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2015072500/ecmwf_mslpa_us_11.png

      1. Makes sense that some of them see a possible feature under what will be more upper level high pressure and again OUTSIDE of the “traditional” development area that is nearly shut down in an El Nino.

  2. OS… No surprise as you know on the Euro or any model not knowing what to do with a possible tropical low that far in advance. Basically like trying to predict the formation and movement of a cluster of thunderstorms 144-240 hours in advance. Nothing you don’t already know, but just noting it here with the opportunity. 🙂

    1. Of course. Not unlike a GFS snow storm in the Winter 10 days out. Not very
      often that it materializes.

      Still, interesting that 2 of the 3 biggies are onto to something. Tis getting to
      be that time of year.

      1. It is, and as noted above, see how again we have to look outside the “usual area” for development.

        2. So I didn’t make that up. I thought I’d heard that would be the case this summer. Thanks gentlemen for the discussion.

  6. How many more times will the Taunton NWS mention tornado this Summer????????
    They are fixated on it.

    here we go again

    OVERALL WE COULD BE LOOKING AT A PERIOD OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDER- STORMS THAT MAY CONTAIN ANY ONE OF SEVERAL THREATS INCLUDING LARGE HAIL… DAMAGING WINDS…EVEN THE POSSIBILITY OF A TORNADO.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MpJDOXxuSLo

    1. I have not kept track. I know we ended up having a tornado the first two times. It seems they have mentioned the possibility one or two times since. Do you recall what the mentioned to occurred ratio is, Old Salty?

      1. I meant to mention that my son in law came through hopkinton during that storm yesterday afternoon. He said it was wild there. Is your daughters area ok?

      2. One time it happened. We had one in Wrentham and another
        in WestMinister.

        ALL the rest, none. Although there was another day with
        a tornado warned storm with nothing on the ground.

        I’s say the ratio is something like 1 out of 5 or 6. 😀

          1. I’m not sure if they confirmed a tornado on plum island but there are lots of videos out there of something close enough that at one point NWS said they were not sure I’m not hesitant to give credit for that warning. Even if it were not confirmed, it was close enough that everyone should have been strongly warned and taken cover. Just my opinion.

  7. Today’s AccuWeather Trivia Quizzes.

    1. A dryline is a boundary that separates tropical moist air and what?
    A. Tropical Dry Air
    B. Continental Polar Air
    C. Artic Polar Air
    D. Continental Dry Air

    2. Hailstone size is maximized by high elevation, low freezing levels, low preciptable water, dry mid-level air, large wind shear and what?

    A. A tornado
    B. An easterly wind
    C. High CAPE
    D. Heavy rainfall

    Answers later today.

    1. The picture itself does not show enough evidence. We can see low clouds nearly touching the ground (scud), but if there is no rotation, there is no tornado.

      I believe someone did get video of a gust-nado (a small spin-up on the gust front of a thunderstorm, but not a tornado) during this event. I’ll have to check into that.

      1. I believe that is absolutely correct. I think I wasn’t clear. I suspect it was not a tornado. I am just thinking if it is that close that a tornado warning or even concern for its potential was warranted. And it truly is just my opinion. I’d rather prepare.

        1. I agree with you for the most part. We just have to be careful how many false alarms there are, because then the “cry-wolf”syndrome takes over. But I 100% agree that it’s better to be prepared for something that does not occur than to be unprepared for something that does. 🙂

          1. The cry wolf bothers me too. It is a fine line between the nws focus and the misinterpretation by people in the area. Many will say there wasn’t even a tornado because it wasn’t in their backyard. Others will say it was an EF0 so no big deal.

            Talk about being between a rock and a hard place.

            What are your thoughts on the potential for circulation with tomorrow’s system as it looks, TK? Is the NWS seeing something or playing it up?

            1. I could not have worded that any better. 🙂

              I don’t think the potential is very high. I think with new tech we have discovered that more storms rotate than we ever thought before. It’s not that more storms rotate “NOW” as opposed to “THEN”, we can just see them better. But I think as has been the case since Revere, and even before maybe going back to Springfield, the NWS wants to cover it all – just in case.

              1. Thank you TK. That makes excellent sense. I think if it explained to the average person, just as you explained to me, people will get it. Those who do not will be critical either way and playing down to that level doesn’t make sense to me

                Thank you for the great discussion and helping me understand more

  10. Sun out here. Kids hoping for some heating as we head to Uxbridge for yet another grands bday this pm and they are hoping to play in pool

  11. I’m heading off to Revere Beach for the afternoon and evening for a walk, a foot-dip in the water (not a full swim), to check out the sand sculptures, to get Kelley’s Roast Beef, and to hang around for the fireworks there tonight. Come on down and say hi! 😀

    I won’t really be able to check in via mobile this time but I’ll check the blog later tonight. Have a great day/evening all!

    1. Wish it were not going to rain tomorrow. Kids and grands would enjoy seeing the sculptures. Have tons of fun

  12. Looks like their is a broad area of low pressure over Florida. Will that 70 plus dew point air mix in with our upcoming warmer weather next week?

    1. There is a great deal of juice down there. Some of that, in terms of humidity, not rain initially, will be drawn northward next week. My feeling is that low will end up southeast of New England many days from now, but we’ll see how that plays out.

  13. It’s been an amazing summer thus far. So little humidity and heat, comparatively speaking. Today is mostly cloudy, but really, really comfortable. Feels and even looks like fall. I know it’s going to get hot again, but I so look forward to days like this in September and October.

  14. re: discussion above

    Vicki, I have no problem with the NWS warning a storm with rotation.
    What I am getting sick of is their constant talk of possible tornadoes in their
    technical discussions. Chance perhaps. Real chance? Hardly. 😀

    1. Thanks OS. I did understand that. If there is hardly a chance, then give that information if they want to mention it. Maybe that is the best way to handle it. Personally, I’d rather know it is there but like you don’t want to hear if every time if the chance is next to zero.

  15. I don’t like the strong wording for severe weather that Taunton has done with several days out from the POTENTIAL event. I understand the day before or even two days before but not three or more days out.

    1. Agree JJ. It has really been over done lately.

      I don’t know if they have a new staff member who is over the top or what, but
      something has changed.

    2. Their 2PM update still mentioned the possibility of a tornado tomorrow.

      SREF says huh what?
      Vorticity Generation potential index is at .2 at best and not at all most of the time. there is a zone of .3 up North but no where in SNE.
      Helicity moves off to the North ahead of best instability.

      Someone is smoking something down there. I wish they would cut out this
      crap until such time it is really warranted.

      Given all the crap I said, I’ll still keep an eye out just in case conditions change. 😀

  16. Updated discussion from Upton, NY no longer mentioning possiblity of strong or severe storms tomorrow. If Taunton in their updated discussion this afternoon keeps the severe weather threat going for tomorrow I give trying to figure out what is going on down there.
    For what its worth 12z GFS more aggressive with instability tomorrow than 12z NAM. I am not sold on strong or severe storms tomorrow.

  17. From the folks at NWS at Taunton for tomorrow
    MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE AND ACCOMPANYING TROUGH AXIS LIFT NORTHEAST
    INTO MAINE THROUGH THE DAY. WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF OUR REGION AND
    SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDER POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING. THEN
    ANTICIPATING AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND T-STORMS WITH DIURNAL
    INSTABILITY. GREATER INSTABILITY DEVELOPS THOUGH IN WHAT APPEARS TO
    BE A MARGINAL-SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. MODELS SHOW 0-1/0-3 KM HELICITY
    DECREASES DURING THE DAY…BUT THIS WILL BE SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE
    ON AS SUNDAY UNFOLDS.

    POSSIBILITY FOR SHOWERS/SCATTERED T-STORMS ON SUNDAY FROM LOW-LEVEL
    CONVERGENCE…AIRMASS INSTABILITY/RAPID DESTABILIZATION…AND/OR
    OROGRAPHIC LIFT. ANY ONE OR A COMBINATION OF WHICH SEEMS TO LEND TO
    SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. MEAN-WIND FLOW IS RATHER
    MEAGER AROUND 15 KTS…SO SOME CONCERN WITH RESPECT TO SOME
    LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL. PWATS 1.25-1.5 INCHES SO NOT EXPECTING
    WIDESPREAD ISSUES WITH HEAVY RAINFALL.

    CAPE GENERALLY 1000-2000 J/KG SUNDAY AFTERNOON. COULD BE LOOKING
    AT A PERIOD OF STRONG TO SOME SEVERE T-STORMS WITH POSSIBILITY OF
    LARGE HAIL…DAMAGING WINDS…MAYBE A LOW CHANCE OF A TORNADO. NOT
    ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN GOING WITH ENHANCED WORDING IN THE
    FORECAST…LOW CONFIDENCE.

    1. I read this while in a check out line at a store. Almost made a scene
      in the store! This is getting ridiculous!!

  21. Here is the 18z NAM for tomorrow
    CAPE
    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=qc&run=18&mod=nam&stn=CAPE&comp=1&run2=18&mod2=nam&stn2=CAPE&hh2=024&fixhh=1&stn2_type=prog&mode=latest&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&hh=027
    LIFT
    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=nam&run=18&stn=LI&hh=027&map=qc&stn2=CAPE&run2=18&mod2=nam&hh2=027&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&mode=latest&stn2_type=prog&date_type=dateo
    EHI
    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=nam&run=18&stn=EHI&hh=027&map=qc&stn2=LI&run2=18&mod2=nam&hh2=027&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&mode=latest&stn2_type=prog&date_type=dateo

  23. Answers to Today’s AccuWeather Trivia Quizzes.

    1. A dryline is a boundary that separates tropical moist air and what?
    A. Tropical Dry Air
    B. Continental Polar Air
    C. Artic Polar Air
    D. Continental Dry Air

    The answer is A.

    2. Hailstone size is maximized by high elevation, low freezing levels, low preciptable water, dry mid-level air, large wind shear and what?

    A. A tornado
    B. An easterly wind
    C. High CAPE
    D. Heavy rainfall

    The answer is C.

    1. Huh, what? Tropical Dry Air.

      So let me get this straight. So when we have a dry line in
      say Oklahoma, that is Tropical Dry Air? From Where?
      I cry FOUL!!!

      You can have the other question but the first one make no sense at all.
      Do they ship it over on a boat from the Sahara? It’s dry air from our own
      US arid SouthWest. It Ain’t tropical in origin.

      1. You make lots of sense OS. Are there different dry lines in different areas so Is the answer question specific? Because question said tropical moist air did it limit itself to tropics.

  25. 18z GFS for tomorrow
    EHI
    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=qc&run=18&mod=gfs&stn=EHI&comp=1&run2=18&mod2=gfs&stn2=EHI&hh2=120&fixhh=1&stn2_type=prog&mode=latest&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&hh=027
    LIFT
    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=gfs&run=18&stn=LI&hh=027&map=qc&stn2=EHI&run2=18&mod2=gfs&hh2=027&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&mode=latest&stn2_type=prog&date_type=dateo
    CAPE
    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=gfs&run=18&stn=CAPE&hh=027&map=qc&stn2=LI&run2=18&mod2=gfs&hh2=027&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&mode=latest&stn2_type=prog&date_type=dateo

  26. NWS 7:20 PM update.. Re: tomorrow

    CAPE GENERALLY 1000-2000 J/KG SUNDAY AFTERNOON. COULD BE LOOKING
    AT A PERIOD OF STRONG TO SOME SEVERE T-STORMS WITH POSSIBILITY OF
    LARGE HAIL…DAMAGING WINDS…MAYBE A LOW CHANCE OF A TORNADO.

    Absolutely relentless.

  27. Latest 18z runs of the American models are showing the CAPE Taunton is mentioning in their discussion. Im curious of the 0z runs are showing that.

    1. They are time sensitive, we begin in late August and end in mid to late Oct 🙂 time is going by way to fast. 🙂

  29. OS… Your FOUL call on the answer to the quiz is 100% correct. The air to the west of the dry line originates in the Rockies OR the Desert Southwest, NOT the tropics. It is continental dry air. AccuWeather messed that one up. Anybody who answered D had the correct answer.

  31. SPC has us in general thunderstorm outlook today.
    6z NAM for today
    EHI
    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=qc&run=06&mod=gfs&stn=EHI&comp=1&run2=06&mod2=gfs&stn2=EHI&hh2=012&fixhh=1&stn2_type=prog&mode=latest&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&hh=015
    CAPE
    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=gfs&run=06&stn=CAPE&hh=015&map=qc&stn2=EHI&run2=06&mod2=gfs&hh2=015&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&mode=latest&stn2_type=prog&date_type=dateo
    LIFT
    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=gfs&run=06&stn=LI&hh=015&map=qc&stn2=CAPE&run2=06&mod2=gfs&hh2=015&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&mode=latest&stn2_type=prog&date_type=dateo

  32. Sorry that was GFS above from 6z run here is 6z NAM
    CAPE
    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=nam&run=06&stn=CAPE&hh=015&map=qc&stn2=LI&run2=06&mod2=nam&hh2=015&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&mode=latest&stn2_type=prog&date_type=dateo
    LIFT
    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=nam&run=06&stn=LI&hh=015&map=qc&stn2=CAPE&run2=06&mod2=nam&hh2=015&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&mode=latest&stn2_type=prog&date_type=dateo
    EHI
    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=nam&run=06&stn=EHI&hh=015&map=qc&stn2=LI&run2=06&mod2=nam&hh2=015&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&mode=latest&stn2_type=prog&date_type=dateo

  33. TK I was thinking more about the quiz. Wss the question itself worded incorrectly….should it have not said tropical moist air?

    Longshot…just making sure you know we understand you are just the messenger and didn’t word these. I love the quizzes and this just adds a puzzle to it which makes it not only more of a learning experience but prolongs the fun 🙂

    1. I didn’t find it to be that poorly-worded, though even Longshot himself has stated that some of them are. 🙂

      1. Thanks TK Is there any such thing as tropical dry air? Tropical always makes me think of wet air.

        And yes,,Longshot is often confused by the wording.

        I love your sandcastle pics. The ability of the sculptures astounds me. I hope the rain holds off so many more can enjoy them today

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