Saturday Forecast Update

72 Comments

8:30AM

DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 26-30)…
This portion of the forecast is brought to you by the final 5 days of September! And during these 5 days we will see a little variety but the continuation of a dry weather pattern. High pressure dominates the weekend with stellar conditions and even though low pressure starts to spread some high, thin clouds into southern New England on Sunday night I am optimistic that the sky will remain clear enough for a good to excellent view of the total lunar eclipse which begins at 9:07PM and ends at 12:27AM (Monday) with totality beginning at 10:11PM into the 11PM hour. This is also being termed a “Super Moon Eclipse” because the moon is as close to the Earth as it gets all year and will appear slightly larger than average, and also a “blood moon” as the moon will not blacken out of view but appear a darker red during totality. After graciously waiting until the celestial event concludes, cloudiness will advance ahead of low pressure to the south of the region, which will track northeastward and pass well southeast of the area by early Tuesday. Though this system may toss some shower activity into parts of southern New England, it will be light, spotty, and non-beneficial. A cold front, which on earlier forecasts I had timed for Wednesday, appears that it will make haste enough to pass through late Tuesday, preceded by warm air and a slight risk of showers. This system will also not be a beneficial rain-maker. High pressure presses toward the region from the west Wednesday, with cooler and drier weather.
TODAY: Sunshine and a few high clouds. Highs in the 60s. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Mainly clear with a bright nearly-full moon. Lows in the 40s. Wind light E.
SUNDAY: Sunshine and a few high clouds. Highs in the 70s. Wind light SE to S.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Mainly clear with a few high clouds evening then increasing cloudiness overnight. Eclipsed moon will be visible (see above). Lows in the 50s. Wind S up to 10 MPH.
MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Spotty light showers. Highs in the 70s. Wind S to variable up to 10 MPH.
TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of showers. Lows in the 60s. Highs in the 70s.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows 45-55. Highs in the 60s.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 1-5)…
As October arrives, a cooler shot of air is expected the first few days. Low pressure forming on a front offshore will likely be close enough for some cloudiness October 1-2 and possibly a cool, gusty wind on October 2 and even into October 3 as the low moves away and high pressure builds in. High pressure will build overhead then to the east with fair and warming weather October 4-5.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 6-10)…
Look for showers and mild conditions early in the period, briefly cooler with dry weather returning mid period, then a warming trend later in the period with continued mainly dry weather.

72 thoughts on “Saturday Forecast Update”

  1. Thanks, TK…

    Alas, one more minute of darkness today than sunlight!
    We’re more than 7″ of precipitation below normal according to last night’s report from Logan.

    Gee, I am full of good news today, aren’t I???

    Nonetheless, happy weekend to all and Go Pats!

    1. Let the seasons change. Darkness and light must trade their time of dominance. It’s just the way of it. 🙂

      It’s quite a deficit and it will worsen. Not the greatest news, but in time, recovery will come. Again, cyclic, and just the way of the world.

      Have a great weekend. Go Pats! Getting ready for hockey too. Bruins are 3-0 on the exhibition season so far. The real season starts October 8. 🙂

  2. Wasn’t there a “Blood/Red Moon” the night the Red Sox won the 2004 World Series in St. Louis?

  4. Good morning and thank you TK.

    Yawn

    What boring weather. I mean really boring.

    At least there is a football game tomorrow.

    1. Good read. Funny how we didn’t hear the comment by Ian Rapoport repeated ad nauseum as we did the comment by Mortensen. And no one will ever convince me that this did not begin with a very deliberate over inflation of the balls at the Jets game last fall.

        1. 😆 😆 Not very often, I am afraid. 😆 😆

          Actually, I was pissed off at Word Press because
          when I hit the post button, NOTHING happened so
          I hit it about 25 times until I got the Word Press Blow Up
          message!!!

          1. Nothing happened again this time, But I just let
            it sit until it was FINALLY DONE!!!! Had I kept hitting the Post Comment button, duplicates
            would have flown.

            2. I’m not having any more trouble. The one time I did, I know it was me being impatient. Odd. Is anyone else seeing a delay?

              1. Word press just doesn’t like me.

                I have created duplicated on my Samsung S5, My home desktop and my work desktop.

                Work is connected to the internet via 100 MB Fiber service. It is fast. Yet I got word
                press delays.

  13. Thanks tk like you said other than a few showers early next week, we go back to dry and milder. I saw on cnn this morning our area overall temps could be 10-15 degrees average average for October? Would this be a record?

    2. It would be nearly impossible to get a month with a greater than 8 degree departure in either direction, so either they misspoke or were completely out to lunch. There could be days in the month that are that much warmer than the average for the date, but would be balanced out at least somewhat by cooler interludes.

  14. One area or region that is having some weather to concentrate on is the mid Atlantic.

    The easterly flow combined with astronomical high tides are causing coastal flooding. I have been seeing pictures of coastal North Carolina from my brother in law showing flooded coastal roadways. Nothing severe, but a few feet of water to be sure.

    1. If you want to draw anything from this, cold/snowy Alaska pattern usually equates to a mild pattern in the north central and northeastern US including New England.

      1. Tk you really seem to think it’s going to be a milder winter than the last couple with snow but not a real lot correct.

          1. I think this El Nino will be similar to or just shy of 1982. It’ll take quite a spike to get to 1997. Winter, mild with brief cold shots. Drier than normal except one wet month probably late Winter. A few areas may approach normal snow, most will be under that. Risk of icing is higher than average but will have to time low level cold and precipitation just right for those events to occur.

      2. Key word: “Usually”

        adjective
        1.
        habitual or customary:
        her usual skill.
        2.
        commonly met with or observed in experience; ordinary:
        the usual January weather.
        3.
        commonplace; everyday:
        He says the usual things.

        It does not mean Always. 😆 😆 😆

        But you have been right on target, so you’ll probably be
        correct. I’m still concerned about something else happening.
        Can’t know just yet. We shall see.

    1. Manley is multiple drug offender. Was banned from the league and arrested for drugs more than once. He also admitted he was basically illiterate in college. Calling im a idiot is actually being kind 🙂

      1. Mac and I were headed to Dana for his treatment early yesterday and it was a welcome laugh. The guy is literally off his rocker.

    1. That is great. You cannot watch it without smiling at her enthusiasm. Your first fish is a forever memory. But I think the excitement stays the same for every fish you hook from that point on.

  20. TK. How are you feeling about your guess of no rain until after October 4th? I see channel 5 has rain on Tuesday with showers on Wednesday, then rain again on Saturday.

    1. If you look at today’s update I have a shower risk for Sep 28 and 29. So far I continue to expect mostly dry weather in early October. TV forecasts don’t factor into my thought process. Half of the time it’s just based on a model run, depending on who prepared the forecast. Meteorology doesn’t work that way.

      Run shows rain: Put rain in the forecast.
      Next run doesn’t show rain: Take rain out of forecast.
      Run after that shows rain again: Put rain back into forecast.
      That process was originally called “rip-and-read” and does not yield the best results.

    1. Indeed, at least the start of a run to run trend that makes rain possibilities a bit more hopeful.

      The thing that caught my eye more so, with a low to the south and a strong high to the north was the pressure gradient and potential onshore flow into east coastal southern New England.

      1. I’m not seeing dew on lawn which surprised me. Car windows are dewy. I’d really like to get out and see if there is any frost formed on them but mac is having difficult reaction to his friday treatment and I’m afraid I’ll wake him up if I go out

        How is your daughter doing, Tom?

  26. 30 years ago today hurricane Gloria made landfall in CT! Until tropical storm Irene in August 2011 Gloria caused the most power outages in CT history.

    2. My very first memory was during Gloria and I was only 2 so it must have been traumatic for me. I clearly remember seeing the entire root structure of a huge maple tree in our front yard that came down during the hurricane. I know Bob caused more damage further east toward coastal MA but Gloria was worse than Bob where I was in North Attleboro at the time. Slight difference in landfall and track made huge difference in affects here.

      1. Ace I always thought Gloria was much worse here too. Bob has the rain but Gloria has the wind. Having s memory at 2 sure would seem to indicate it was traumatic. I watched a willow go down, roots and all, in our neighbors yard. The wind was so loud I never heard the noise the tree made

  27. 35 at this hour in Sharon. I suspect it was lower a couple hours ago. Have only just opened the back door and it got closed very quickly! I cannot confirm any frost in the shade but it wouldn’t surprise me. Heat may go on in the house for 5 mins or so, 58 in the house

  28. I was a year old when Gloria made landfall here in CT. I don’t remember it at all. The first big weather event I remembered that affected CT was the tornado outbreak of July 10, 1989. It was around 5pm when the F 1 tornado came through knocked down the tree in the front yard. I was five and holding on to my mom tight as I was scared. This was the second tornado my mother experienced. I am hoping neither of us experience another one in our life time.

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