Monday Forecast

99 Comments

7:52AM

DAYS 1-5 (DECEMBER 21-25)…
The very mild pattern likely peaks this week. After this, slight pattern instability and climatology will battle against allow it to become this mild again, though the long term still looks mild overall. Of more immediate concern is wind. As the pressure gradient tightens up today between low pressure to the west and high pressure offshore, we’ll see a moderate to strong southwest wind, making the mild temperatures reaching around 50 feel just a little cooler than that. Sunshine will also be lacking as high and mid level cloudiness will be plentiful. By Tuesday, the warming atmosphere will yield some rain for a period of time before a break arrives and lasts well into Wednesday. One more surge of wet weather will come through Wednesday night, and a mostly rain-free Christmas Eve is expected, when it may be warmest of all. A couple troughs and a front may cause a few rain showers as we transition back toward cooler at night, and by Christmas Day itself an area of high pressure should bring fair weather and temperatures, though cooler than the day before, will still be above the long term average.
TODAY: Limited sun, lots of clouds. Highs 47-54. Wind SW increasing to 15-25 MPH, gusting 35-45 MPH but gusts as high as 50 MPH possible over higher elevations and exposed locations in southeastern MA.
TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Light rain possible before dawn. Lows 40-47. Wind SW 10-20 MPH and gusty during the evening, diminishing overnight.
TUESDAY: Cloudy through early afternoon with periods of light rain. Breaking clouds and some sun possible later. Highs 48-55. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 41-48. Wind S 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Partly to mostly cloudy. Late-day rain southern areas. Highs in the 50s.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Periods of rain. Lows 45-55.
THURSDAY – CHRISTMAS EVE: Variably cloudy. Chance of rain showers. Highs 55-65.
FRIDAY – CHRISTMAS DAY: Mostly sunny. Lows in the 30s. Highs in the 50s.

DAYS 6-10 (DECEMBER 26-30)…
Possible rain late December 26 into December 27. Fair December 28. Possible mix to rain (most likely just rain) December 29. Fair December 30. Temperatures variable, still averaging above normal.

DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 31-JANUARY 4)…
Mainly dry weather. At this time it looks like any meaningful storminess will be pushed to the south and any energy from the northern jet stream would produce no more than a few rain or snow showers. Trending a little colder – temperatures above to near normal.

99 thoughts on “Monday Forecast”

        1. Yes and no. Sunshine would be of limited help due to its angle, but the lack of it may still take a couple degrees off if we have too much cloudiness. We also have to watch for a couple waves of convection (not strong, but strong enough to pull down some cooler air from above and mix things up a bit).

          1. Oh I understood all of that. Just trying to stir
            things up a bit in a nice way. I am so pissed
            at it being this warm, that I WANT the 70 degrees
            that is all. 😀 Why Not at this point.

            I also now want the all time Warmest December
            on record!

            1. We’ll get the record. As my friend says, records were made to be broken. It’s just the product of borderline uncharted territory in El Nino. I cannot say I’m totally surprised by the magnitude of the warmth. Some are nervous, but I assure you this is no different than the result of last Winter’s pattern which essentially produced the coldest February on record for many areas.

              If you want a positive, enjoy the lower heating bill with the mild air and the lower overall prices. It’s a nice break. 🙂

                1. When I was a kid, I used to climb out my window and up onto the roof where I would sit at the peak of the roof and stare at the stars wishing it would SNOW!

  4. re: 12/29
    Models have been flipping back and forth between a coastal redevelopment and
    a straight cutter. Looks like it has resolved itself to be a straight Lakes Cutter.
    Still 8 days, but looking more and more like a Cutter. So what else is new?

    As longs as it’s going to be warm, how about a 70 for Christmas Eve Day! Let’s
    do it!

    1. GFS hints at a touch of snow from the 1st through the end of the run.
      Not much. I don’t believe it. We shall see.

  5. Funny that TK mentioned It’s a Wonderful Life.

    I was watching Star Trek, Into the Darkness when My wife came in and wanted
    to watch Sound of Music. We switched it to that and we both decided. NOPE, had
    enough of that sappiness. She wanted to find a Christmas movie on Demand.
    Wouldn’t you know it, Comast was running a special on It’s a Wonderful Life.
    Purchase for $7.95. So we did and we watched it. Now my wife can watch it
    anytime she wants. We actually have it on DVD, but it is the colorized version
    and my wife does not like that.

    1. Great price. I have to see if I can find it either on Demand or to purchase as you did. I agree with Mrs. OS re colorized. Just not the same. Funny thing is that when I watch old shows in B&W, my grandkids never seem to notice.

      1. NWS added Suffolk to the advisory
        EASTERN ESSEX MA-SOUTHEAST MIDDLESEX MA-SUFFOLK MA- EASTERN NORFOLK MA-DUKES MA-SOUTHEAST PROVIDENCE RI- EASTERN KENT RI-BRISTOL RI-NEWPORT RI- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF.GLOUCESTER.CAMBRIDGE.BOSTON.
        QUINCY.VINEYARD HAVEN.PROVIDENCE.WARWICK.BRISTOL.
        NEWPORT
        1007 AM EST MON DEC 21 2015
        WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON.

  8. Thank you TK. And I will admit that I am completely annoyed that it will be in the 60’s on Christmas Eve. Silly, I know, but it just isn’t right.

  9. Weather has been no concern for me theses days. Going to enjoy the holidays no matter what Mother Nature brings. Life is way too short to worry about little things.

    1. Yes it is, however, many of us sweat the little things regardless.
      Just part of human nature, I guess.

      For me, the way I am wired, I get MOST annoyed by the little things.
      Things like:

      Red lights
      Lines (queues) anywhere
      Commericals on TV and Radio.
      (I NEVER listen to a commerical on the radio. My presets are wearing
      out!)
      Traffic
      Shitheads on the road
      Sports team losing
      Silly managerial decisions
      A-hole politicians
      Dumb-ass decisions/p0licies at work
      Poor wait service and/or dumb service at a restaurant.

      etc. etc. etc. 😆 👿 😆 😈 👿 😈

      1. I will say one thing – I always mute the commercials on TV. I don’t think I have heard one commercial on TV for yrs. Except the one w/Patrick Stewart from Star Trek on some drink, don’t remember what. I don’t drink, but I like Patrick Stewart. Sir Patrick Stewart, I think!

        1. My GrandFather was ahead of his times.
          During the early 50s, he rigged up a switch to the sound
          on the TV and ran it back to his easy chair. When
          a commerical was aired, he would flip the switch to
          mute it.

          2. Your grandfather seems to have been a very clever person. He and Mac’s dad would have loved discussing ideas. Although Mac’s dad did try to dry his socks in the microwave at one point and didn’t realize there can be metal in fabric…..needless to say – boom

    2. You certainly bring up a very good point Hadi. I am glad you the will be enjoying the holidays and love your attitude.

  10. I’ve been noticing that with the milder temps come cloudy and sometimes damp conditions. Another reason I haven’t been a fan of these milder temps so far. Even though this past weekend was colder, i enjoyed the sunshine.

  14. Hadi’s message rings true: Life is too short to worry about the weather. Hadi’s attitude is commendable.

    However, weather does affect people in many ways. Catastrophic storms can be lethal, and cause considerable damage to properties as well as our natural habitat. Also, seasonal affect disorder is a real condition and impacts the lives of many, especially during the dark months. Speaking of dark, it is so darn dismal outside. I apologize to all who like the relatively mild temperatures and zonal flow. But, I don’t think I’m alone in suffering from some S.A.D. due to frequent grays this month. Furthermore, while the temperature is well above average it doesn’t feel comfortable. It’s raw, windy. A sunny, crisp day in the upper 20s beats this weather any day of the week, in my humble opinion.

  15. Ace, I hadn’t seen your post before I sent mine. You and I are on the same page. The weather this month reminds me of a typical December in the Netherlands. Mostly in the 40s and low 50s. Cloudy almost every day. Occasional light rain. About as boring a weather scenario as one can imagine. Make no mistake, I love Holland and its people, but the weather was brutal. I remember returning home at Christmas time, and besides seeing family the one thing I longed for was sunshine. In terms of sunshine hours the difference between Boston and Amsterdam at this time of year is usually huge. Not this year, however.

  17. I have a completely new attitude towards everything life throws at us. I am going to appreciate everything I have and never forget what life is really about. Health and happiness to all and remember to hug those that are closest to you bc I know I will. You never know when you could lose anyone.

  18. Hmmm

    I am very surprised Tom did not mention this (or perhaps he did and I missed it)

    Eric Fisher stated last night that even with the “COLD” weather this weekend,
    temperature anomalies for both Saturday and Sunday were +3 degrees F.

    Pretty impressive seeing as how it was supposed to be “COLD”. 😆 😆 😆

  19. The same thing happened for inland CT where the records are kept at BDL. Despite the cool down the highs were still slightly above normal.
    I feel good about my prediction for Harford as there has never been a winter with no accumulating snow in December that ended up with above normal snowfall. All have been below normal.

  20. I almost feel guilty celebrating the solstice later tonight, given the month’s weather.

    Ok, guilts over !!! Woo hoo !!!!!!!!!

    1. Happy Solstice! I listened to A Winter’s Solstice by Windham Hill Artists at dawn this morning.

      1. Love windham hill and will add that to the top of my playlist tonight. I seem to recall Tim Janis had some songs for the solstice – but maybe just December

    2. Haha – celebrate away. We celebrate the solstice on December 13 which is St Lucia Day in Sweden. It was the winter solstice on the old calendar. We didn’t do much except make Pepparkokkar cookies which are always a treat.

      What are your celebration plans?

      1. Thanks TK and Vicki …….. maybe a glass of wine around 7pm, I won’t make it to 11:48 pm 🙂 🙂 🙂

  21. Amazing what about 3C of warming in the equatorial Pacific, combined with another degree of warming of the entire atmosphere, will do with our climate. Just imagine what another 2-3C of warming the entire atmosphere will do. (Not what it would do, what it will do when it happens in the next century). A month like this for our region is unprecedented in every sense of the word. A year like this globally is as well. It is a “step change” in our climate.

    Not exactly “blown away” (get it?) by the wind out there today. 40mph seems to be about the limit on the gusts for most places. It actually felt pretty nice out. That low Sun angle is tough though, as much as I love the snow I wouldn’t mind if we could keep 12+ hours of daylight year-round 🙂

    1. Nice comment and observations as always, WxWatcher. You are this world’s future and your views and knowledge always impress me. I am finding your generation to be very aware on the whole and quite concerned with the scenario you have mentioned. It gives me hope.

      Re wind – it did feel nice today. Sounds nice as well.

    2. I was out at lunch. Honestly, did NOT NOT NOT notice any wind
      to speak of… NONE whatsoever. Go Figure.

      The NWS seems to always be over the top with their wind advisories.

  22. JPD…I found your earlier post regarding what things annoy you interesting and amusing. I am somewhat surprised you didn’t mention types of weather as well. 😀

    For me it is rain, regardless of the season. I was not one of those kids who deliberately stomp their feet in puddles. I avoided them like the plague as I continue to do now as an adult. I HATE going out in the rain, even when I used to drive. This is why I sometimes ask TK here for a timeframe. Unfortunately, I am going to have to deal with rain Wednesday evening on my way home from work…UGH! 😉

    If I had my way, it would only rain between 12 am – 6am. While I am asleep it can rain all it wants to. 😀

    1. 😀

      Rain doesn’t bother me, Although from time to time and depending on
      the time of day, it can be a tad more difficult. I love driving in the snow!

      I don’t mind be out in the rain.
      I’ve played golf, baseball and football in the rain not to mention fishing.

      1. I think Red lights bother me more than anything, especially
        when I have time constraints. I want to get into the computer systems and re-program the timing sequence of every stinken light!!!! Some of the timing is horrendous and I mean horrendous!!
        For example Rt. 9 at Eliot street. A dumb-ass side street gets
        MORE green light time than the major thoroughfare, rt. 9!!

  23. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao_index_ensm.shtml

    In the 4th graph down, which analyzes the 14 day NAO outlook vs what actually took place (the thick dark line), notice how the NAO has ended up much more positive than the 2 week projection. Perhaps a contribution towards those projected long range cool downs that have never happened this autumn.

    Top graph is a simple showing of what the NAO has done this autumn. Pretty neat 2 week pulsing of the NAO and each of the last 3 positive pulses have been more intense. Probably explains any arctic air escaping North America through Davis Strait, across Greenland and into the far North Atlantic.

    1. Interestingly, Nuuk (Greenland) was warmer than Boston last February. Sometimes by a wide margin. This winter totally different story. Though not an especially cold place – it’s rare for Nuuk to go below -10F – it’s been very cold this December and looks to remain that way. Temps mainly in the single digits and low teens during the day, and hovering around 0F at night.

      Using folk meteorology I am thinking that the power of El Nino is preventing any of the cold Arctic air from incursions south, even into southern Quebec.

      1. So has been Kimmirut. Usually below 0F. Even for their latitude, they have had quite an extremely cold autumn.

  24. Dr cohen’s blog is out. I am mobile, else would post a link and excerpts.

    If I read it properly, he predicts cold the weather and snowstorms for the East coast,
    Along with a rapid weakening of El nino.

    If I am not mistaken, he likened it to
    Last winter.

    Unless I totally misunderstood, hold onto your hats because we are in for it!!

    1. Here is where tk comes in and says.
      Not so fast. Dr. Cohen is being too
      Optimistic for cold and snow. El nino
      Will hold strong, although weaken some.

      1. “Liken to last winter.” That doesn’t make sense. I see no similarity between last winter and this. Yes, December 2014 was on the mild side, but nothing like December 2015. Also, we’re being impacted about as much as is possible by El Nino. That was not the case last year. By late December last year, it was clear that the cold air mass from Canada (that was already present in December) would dive southward. Indeed, it did, long before the snows. What was unclear, of course, were the snowstorms or potential thereof. Everything had to come together for that to materialize given that we did not have a negative NAO (as I recall). Nor were several of the storms classic nor’easters.

        1. Don’t shot the messenger.
          I do believe he expects a decent turn around in
          January.

          It won’t be like last year, but perhaps
          We’ll have Winter this season.

    2. I’ll even spot Dr Cohen a rapidly weakening El Niño. Even with that assumption, the atmosphere would lag, I would think, in its response to that change.

      I noticed a story on ch 4 (I believe) that many in the public are worried about January/February because of the similarities between last year’s warm December and what is happening this year.

    2. Our last day of school this week is Wednesday. I’ll try to put my toes in the ocean Thursday and let you know how it feels. 🙂

      I saw fliers at the Rexhame General Store tonight for the polar plunge New Years Day. 🙂 🙂

      1. I didn’t know they have one at rexhame. As you know my niece did it at Humarock in memory of her dad in 2011. 46 ain’t warm. Completely took her breath away. But others were just standing out in it talking.

        1. Yup 🙂 🙂 🙂 I’m one of the talkers.

          Well done to your niece !!

          I’ll go up to my knees for Mac.

            1. Just startled my son laughing. Standing in water talking and just thinking of going in up to your knees for Mac is amazing.

  26. What’s remarkable is that records are set to be shattered in many locations on Christmas Eve, not just the Eastern U.S.

    Moscow’s exceptionally mild.

    Paris, too.

    London in record-breaking territory.

    Amsterdam: snow drops (flowers) and daffodils in full bloom.

    1. I didn’t know that about Europe.

      In the U.S., there’s just not been a cool air intrusion that has impacted the SE U.S. Even though it’s now late December, the heat budget is still relatively high. I hope the sun can come out Thursday and that the 850 mb warmth of the airmass can be fully realized.

  27. JP Dave, I didn’t intend to shoot the messenger. I love hearing what you relay to us, and also what you opine. I fully realize you were conveying Dr. Cohen’s article.

  29. Wow, does it feel like a winter’s day. A magical winter wonderland, filled with more gray skies, light rain, and 50F. “Oh, the weather out there is frightful …” You know the tune. It’s that kind of day … NOT!

  31. Updated!
    And yes I feel that this year Dr. Cohen is grasping. Something seemed off when after last year saying he does not forecast snowfall, he started talking about snowfall in interviews. Hot topic I guess after last Winter. But he can do what he likes. 😀

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