Tuesday Forecast

280 Comments

7:16AM

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 19-23)…
Lesson learned (by me): I still can’t forecast inverted trough precipitation very well. Will work on it. Lesson not learned (by media in general): Saying too much about threats that are greater than a few days away will almost always come back to bite you. Not always, but almost always. And it may happen again. Firstly, the well-advertised cold is now here and will remain, accompanied by wind, for 2 more days, and then it will remain cold but with less wind on Thursday. The big question continues to be what happens with the storm potential for the end of the week. You all know my approach is a wait-and-see one, look at the data, ingest it but don’t choke on it, digest it but don’t let it cause you heartburn. It’s just a scientific process. Sometimes it works great, and sometime not so much. Either way, I will employ it. Though we are still 4 to 5 days out from this potential event, I’m starting to see more evidence that the main focus of that storm system will be over the Mid Atlantic, with a lesser impact up here in southeastern New England. The orientation of the steering currents in this continued split flow may end up taking the system more east than north. That does not remove us in southern New England from its threat, but instead of staring down the barrel of the cannon, we may be looking more at the side of it. Will continue to monitor…
TODAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 18-25. Wind NW 15-25 MPH, gusting over 30 MPH. Wind chill often near 0.
TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 5-10 except 10-15 urban areas and coastline. Wind NW 10-20 MPH and gusty. Wind chill often near 0.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 20-27. Wind NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows 0-10 valleys, 10s elsewhere. Highs 26-33.
FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Lows 0-10 valleys, 10s elsewhere. Highs 28-35.
SATURDAY: Cloudy. Chance of snow. Lows in the 10s. Highs 25-32.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 24-28)…
Chance of snow showers January 24. Fair January 25. Risk of unsettled weather January 26-27. Improving weather January 28. Variable temperatures, not far from normal.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 29-FEBRUARY 2)…
Fair, briefly colder early period then warming trend. Risk of unsettled weather end of period.

280 thoughts on “Tuesday Forecast”

  1. Damn wind…opened my storm door and it almost blew clean of ha. Oh and you were right about I didn’t have to roof rake. Almost no snow on my roof…wasted time and energy yesterday!

  6. Thanks TK !

    That was one cold walk from the parking lot into the building this morning !!

    The beautiful landscape continues …..

    1. I was out a bit to clean stuff off last night and as I walked in door said brrrrrrrr. Daughter said if I think it is cold, we are in trouble. Full disclosure…I didn’t wear a coat but I did think about it 🙂

  7. The 1 mile walk to the T was something else this morning … something I hope I don’t have to repeat often. 🙂

    1. True. But they had very major storms in 2010. I believe Baltimore got over 30 inches in one storm. And historically they have had on occasion very significant snowfalls that wound up barely impacting us.

  9. A fairly cold stretch in the northern sections of the Netherlands – Friesland and Groningen. The Frisians love to skate (not on hockey or figure skates, but on speed skates with very long blades), and on occasion can do so from town to town. The canals and `ditches’ are quite shallow and freeze over rather quickly. Unfortunately, the cold won’t last long this year, but the images of Frisians skating past windmills and pastures are wonderful.

    http://nos.nl/artikel/2081390-tientallen-schaatsers-in-friese-polder.html

    Regarding our weather, the latest models appear to indicate a grazing rather than a major blow. We shall see. Even a grazing could hit CC and the Islands very hard, as I do think this storm intensifies rapidly over relatively warm water. We could have a situation in which the Outer Cape gets more snow than any other locale in Massachusetts.

      1. Indeed, it reminds me of Hans Andersen too.

        Yes, Europe has been trending a bit colder, and there are signs that February could turn out to be the coldest month there this winter.

  10. Thank you TK

    What is the timeframe for the storm. I know it is early but am attempting to plan a getaway Friday night into early Saturday. I’ll just postpone a week if it is to arrive during that timeframe. I had heard Friday night through Saturday night and now am hearing Sat through Sun. I’d be home mid-day Sat but prefer to be home before the snow flies.

  11. My run early this morning was cold, but after about a mile one gets used to it. Off went the hoodie and scarf at a certain point. Gloves stayed on. At the end of 3.5 miles my body was quite warm. It’s amazing how adaptable human bodies are.

  12. For TJ:

    Ensembler Low Centers

    6z GFS

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2016011906/gfs-ememb_lowlocs_us_20.png

    0Z CMC

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem-ens/2016011900/gem-ememb_lowlocs_us_21.png

    0Z Euro

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf-ens/2016011900/ecmwf-ens_mslpa_us_6.png

    I don’t have the low centers for the Euro, but from the other 2 we can readily
    see quite a dispersion of low placements. I would feel more confident if
    they were clustered much closer.

    What this tells me is that the models don’t know just yet.

    From my earlier post, the energy for this system will be coming on shore
    in the Pacific Northwest about 7PM tonight. See on the following 500 mb chart.

    http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=018&image=data%2Fgfs%2F06%2Fgfs_namer_018_500_vort_ht.gif&model=gfs&area=namer&param=500_vort_ht&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20160119+06+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=area

    Therefore, we will get the best information yet with tonights 0Z runs.
    If the trend South continues, we may have to kiss it good-bye. However, there
    is just as much likelihood it trends North with the much better sampled data.
    Time will tell.

  13. For those of you who want big snow this weekend and are superstitious… I’m a former WHW lurker from Millis who moved to Portland, OR in 2014. I fly back for work’s annual company meeting every year. Last year, I departed BOS for PDX on 1/25, and Boston got crushed the next day. This year… I depart BOS for PDX on Friday evening. Make of that what you will. (But please tell me the weather won’t impact a 6pm Friday flight. 😉

    1. Thank you. Are you the one who resided on Village Street? Curious as I grew up
      in Millis. 😀

      Let’s hope your flight is NOT impacted.

      1. That’s me! 🙂 I don’t hang around here much these days since U don’t live in MA, but I pop in the few times a year I fly back for work. Good to see the place is still active and friendly as ever!

    2. It doesn’t matter to these folks, if they had a choice of impact on your flight or no snow at all, we know what they would pick 🙂

  14. For Vicki,

    According to the 6Z GFS (this is just one model and one run) it would start
    in the Boston area somewhere in the time frame of 1 AM to 4 AM. Somewhere in
    there. Very difficult to say with certainty 4 days out.

    3. Thank you, Dave and TK. That would definitely mean I will postpone my getaway for a week which is very easy.

    1. Interesting. Is that from this Morning? or last night?

      If this morning, what is he smoking?????

      OR what data does he have that the rest of us don’t????

      OR how is he interpreting the data we are all seeing????

      I would like him to explain his reasoning.

      Does he on his website?

      Thanks

          1. For whatever reason, he is NOT buying a more
            Southern track. Very very interesting.

            Matt Noyes has been known to go out on a limb and often he has been correct. Will he be this time? Who knows.

            1. I suspect the team as a whole is not interested in any recent southward shift on guidance. I believe they should be.

      2. He might not be model jumping 😉 He might be waiting to change his thoughts till tonight. See if the models stay course.

  16. 12Z NAM, radar display at 84 hours:

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=nam&region=us&pkg=ref&runtime=2016011912&fh=84&xpos=0&ypos=201

    Note heavier precip where coastal is beginning to take over.

    500 mb

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=nam&region=us&pkg=z500_vort&runtime=2016011912&fh=84&xpos=0&ypos=201

    250 mb

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=nam&region=us&pkg=uv250&runtime=2016011912&fh=84&xpos=0&ypos=201

    The 2 upper air charts tell the story. This still wants to move it up and then drift
    it more to the East than the North. How much qpf gets in here is the big question.

    We simply do not know yet.

    1. Plenty of support for a BIG storm here. Plenty of Cold to the North.
      Almost a classic perfect set up. Will it or won’t it?

  17. If anyone dares to look out in the long range, take a look, tk right again!! Possible record highs tk?? Sorry snow lovers 🙂

    2. for a week maybe, but look pass it and a cold front moves on back through and gives us the cold back. 🙂

      1. This is assuming it happens that way. If this next storm lays down a deep snowpack to our south and west it may be harder to get the type of warmth Charlie is hoping for….let’s get through the next storm first and then see where we stand

    3. Warmup is temporary and will be followed by cold which may challenge some records in Feb. Snow lovers will rejoice big time at least once as well.

  19. I guess my overall point is yes it can and will cool back down, but it will melt the snow that’s on the ground. Judging by models it wants to be in the mid 40’s and even possibly 50 degrees for 5-7 days from Jan 28-Feb 4th or so.

    1. I don’t think anyone mentioned anything about the snow on the ground. We are taking about the upcoming pattern. You got on the wrong train this morning my friend. 🙂

        1. I know. You don’t like snow. You want it to melt. And winter is over. You want the snow lovers to be upset. And you want to rub it in. I get it. 🙂

          NEXT TOPIC! 😀

  22. TK – Will the 26-27 event be considerably “milder” than the weekend storm? More mix/rain likely involved?

    Is the upcoming brief warmup El Nino’s “last hurrah” so to speak?

    1. Hope not, Hope so.

      The next event could go either way.
      And imho, the next warm up is the kiss of death for El Nino!(!@(#&*(!&@#*(&!*(

  24. 12z GFS is interesting. Further south through about 96 hours, but then all of a sudden shifts the snow axis north and hits SNE pretty hard, moreso than 6z for sure.

    I don’t have a strong feeling on this storm for our region yet. Definitely looks like a mid-Atlantic jackpot. The consistency in the models is almost eerie.

    1. Eerie, indeed.

      Now we see what the Euro and CMC have to say.

      I can’t wait for the 0Z runs tonight with the better sampling of data.

  25. Flying into Boston this afternoon. Wish the storm would happen while I’m here! Missing winter living down south!

    Btw – a couple things about living in North Carolina: 1) people are so excited when it snows. 2) they literally shut everything down over 1 inch.

  26. Even though the distribution of the heaviest snow has wavered some, it have never shown less than a foot for us in SNE.

  29. I keep hearing ensemble talk. This is a part of model output I don’t fully understand. I believe it to be many runs with slightly different initial input parameters fed into each member, then the mean is determined. My question is, if this is so much more accurate than the “operational” run, why isn’t that used as the true model output? Why even run an op?

    1. I believe you need a base model. It can generally be better but sometimes the mean can be skewed to one side due to one to 3 different model ensemble. TK and Dave could probably give you more info

    2. You basically have it correct.
      The ensembles modify some of the input parameters. I do not know specifically, but depending on how many members (number of different runs with their
      associated changes), certain initialization input it altered slightly to see
      what the results are. I presume it is done to try and smooth out any
      possible initialization errors. The operational run is completed with
      the parameters as given.

      The idea is to see how results are clustered around the ensemble mean
      and compare to the operational run. The more ensembles that
      agree with the operational run, the more confidence in the operational
      run.

      On the other hand if there is a wide spread among the Ensemble members,
      then one has to question the operational run. Very tricky business.

      Here is an example with ALL of the CMC ensemble members.

      http://meteocentre.com/models/get_ensemble.php?lang=en&map=na&run=00&mod=cmc_geps&stn=PNMPR&stn_type=postagestamp&display=img&hh=120

      Here are ALL of the GFS ensemble members (sorry only have it for 0Z run, but for illustrative purposes it suits our needs)

      http://meteocentre.com/models/get_ensemble.php?lang=en&map=na&run=00&mod=ncep_geps&stn=PNMPR&stn_type=postagestamp&display=img&hh=120

  30. Couple thoughts …..

    Almost looks like a stall or a loop when this system is south of eastern LI/Vineyard/Nantucket. Part of elongated low seems to move SOUTHEASTWARD away at the end.

    I think it’s the 700 mb and 850 mb lows and there placement that determine the heaviest snow location in southern New England. I’m guessing that is what really pushes the heavier precip into southern New England, even if the surface low isn’t making a great deal of northward latitude movement once it leaves the mid-Atlantic region.

    1. I noticed a loop as well. With the configuration and wind field, I am
      wondering if some of the qpf is actually a little low? Just a thought.

    1. That snowmap is the most realistic one i’ve seen so far. None of those phantom 48 inch amounts. I think max potential is around the 2 foot mark but that location has been wavering by 100 miles.

  34. CMC is out. I don’t like what it is portraying. Won’t have snow map from Tidbits
    for awhile.

    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=12&mod=gemglb&stn=PNMPR&comp=1&run2=12&mod2=gemglb&stn2=PNMPR&hh2=096&fixhh=1&stn2_type=prog&mode=latest&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&hh=102

    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=12&mod=gemglb&stn=PNMPR&comp=1&run2=12&mod2=gemglb&stn2=PNMPR&hh2=102&fixhh=1&stn2_type=prog&mode=latest&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&hh=108

    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=12&mod=gemglb&stn=PNMPR&comp=1&run2=12&mod2=gemglb&stn2=PNMPR&hh2=108&fixhh=1&stn2_type=prog&mode=latest&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&hh=114

    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=12&mod=gemglb&stn=PNMPR&comp=1&run2=12&mod2=gemglb&stn2=PNMPR&hh2=114&fixhh=1&stn2_type=prog&mode=latest&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&hh=120

  35. JPDave, remember the discussion yesterday about miller A vs. miller B with this one? I now see it will have a main low transferring its energy to a low on the coast making is more a miller B. This set-up makes it much more difficult to forecast. Where this transfer occurs and how much it intensifies makes all the difference in the world in terms of eventual track.

  37. Can anyone comment on the sharp cutoff in precip to the north. Essentially I’m wondering why the precip field with this storm is so consolidated?

  39. Everything farther south this cycle except the GFS op, including GFS ens. CMC south, and UKMET looks way south although tough to tell without precip maps. Euro will be interesting, I suspect it continues and perhaps ups the ante on the south trend.

  41. NAM usually over does it on amounts. The GFS can do the same but I don’t think it does it a lot. The higher amounts from what I could see on GFS 12Z was just a prolonged period of snow as the system drifted. I could be wrong but that’s what I saw.

  42. A friend is asking for meteorological advice. She is supposed to be flying to St. Maarten Saturday morning, direct flight. She’s looking at possibly going Friday instead, but flying via JFK. Which is the better choice as far as avoiding this storm is concerned? The Friday flight will cost an extra $1000.

    1. I don’t have the answer but I sure wish I was heading to St. Maarten with your friend. My favorite island. 🙂

  45. Sue is correct. 12z Euro way south. Practically nothing for SNE. Jackpots actually south of Washington DC.

    1. Good …… big storm might mean no power in SE Mass and a struggle to watch the Patriots game Sunday.

      There’s a nice snow cover out there, its cold …. we’re having some winter.

      With the full moon this weekend, I really hope this ends up as a complete miss.

      2. It may miss entirely. Well, we’d probably get some gusty wind and light snow at the coast. But, I’m currently thinking we’ll probably not get a major snowstorm in our area. Nantucket and perhaps the Outer Cape may be the only locales in Massachusetts that end up with a winter storm warning. We’ll see.

    2. can you show me your link WX

      You have better access to the EURO than I do but the link I have makes it stay the same course if not a tad bit further north.

  46. From Eric Fisher on Twitter: 12z ECMWF slows down arrival of storm, bit farther south. Big picture the same: Blizzard Mid-Atlantic, living on the edge here in SNE.

    1. Thanks, Sue. “Bit farther south” is an understatement by Eric Fisher. Notice, too the split TK was talking about. You’ll see very heavy snow well to our south, but also very heavy snow well to our northeast (headed into Nova Scotia) from a different low, I assume.

  47. That’s a pretty large swing with the EURO right? I think it maybe a little to far south. But I await TK’s comments

  48. That’s why it’s hard for me to get excited for a big storm a week in advance to much can change or not be picked up in the models. Still early could go back the other way. But the trend is not what you want to see

  49. Hi Cat,

    We go through this every year. I’m pretty confident will have at least a moderate snowstorm. But again I’m no expert.

  50. doesn’t that map seem odd? Euro’s snow totals going from a line in VA to NJ are substantial and then fall off only to reappear east of the gulf Maine. Would this be the case of the main low dying and transferring its energy to a secondary low leaving us in a void? As much as I don’t like the trend, it is currently there. I remain hopeful however with the 00z guidance

    1. I noticed this, too. I think it’s a secondary low that intensifies up as it approaches the Maritimes. According to this guidance, we are in no-man’s land. I could be totally wrong, but I think this is partly what TK was referring to in terms of a split flow.

      1. In this case the coastal forms well South of us. That is not the problem. The problem is it is already past the mature phase
        when it gets up here, IF it gets up here. PLUS it is fighting
        the Northern Stream flow that wants to send it more Eastward
        than Northward.

        If the Euro is correct, we’re done. If the GFS is correct then the
        Southern stream has a little more umph and we get hit.

        I still say we’ll have a better idea starting with tonight’s 0Z
        runs.

  51. Well TK….you were certainly right that there would be something to watch for the timeframe of the 24th. Thankfully it won’t be a repeat of last year.

    1. Actually, in some ways it may be a repeat of January 24th, 2015, when we had about 4 or 5 inches of snow. I think you mean the storm that came after that, on January 27th.

      1. Did we only get 4 to 5 on the January 24th? For some reason I was thinking we got more out of that storm.

        1. I believe it was only 4 or 5 inches in Boston. You’re a South Shore person, however. You could have gotten more. South Shore is our Massachusetts snow belt, after all.

    2. 24 & 27 last year.
      23/24 & 26/27 this year. But the second system this time will not be a blizzard. It will be a lighter system of one kind of precipitation or another, or a mixture of several.

  52. Hmmm

    Here we go with model DIVERGENCE all over again.

    Time to break out the dart board.

    I will still wait until I see the 0Z runs before I say anything else.
    I will only say I am disappointed in the Euro run. Wish it would be better.

  53. I don’t think Miller B is our problem, it is the split flow and the Northern flow
    wants to keep it South.

    1. I agree 1,000 % with you JpDave regarding split flow.

      Now, whether the EURO or any other model has the proper handling of the split flow 4 days out is another matter. 🙂 🙂 🙂

    2. You nailed the reason. Exactly what I was talking about late last night with a friend and fellow forecaster in a private chat.

      1. Cool, however, it doesn’t put the nail in it just yet, but it sure
        seems to be trending that way. As Tom said, it depends upon
        how the models handle the split flow and which one gets it
        correct.

        Given the superior algorithms in the Euro model software,
        I’d lean towards the Euro. Still doesn’t mean it is correct, just
        that I would lean in that direction.

          1. Of course it does.

            They were trying to put out alerts to our elderly clientele here at the office today. I told them it was premature and to wait until tomorrow as this storm “may” be a miss. They didn’t listen to me. 😀

            1. Why would anyone listen to reason? We don’t live in that kind of world anymore, unfortunately.

              I mean, after all, the NEWS already said a historic snowstorm was coming. WAS coming. They can’t be wrong, can they? 😛

              1. ROTFLMAO!!!!

                At least we all KNOW what is
                going on being members of this
                blog. For that I am most grateful!
                ”
                Thank you TK!

  54. I don’t know if any here are Chicago Fire fans, but just in case I remind all
    that tonight’s episode is about a Tornado that hits one of Chicago’s neighborhoods.
    It will be interesting to see how well they handle this.

    1. Not a huge void, but we’re not likely to be in anything close to the jackpot zone as I see it right now.

        1. Odds favor it but nothing set in stone yet.

          There is always a reason I don’t go into detail until inside 72 hours before event beginning. This method actually works.

          But I’d be on standby for something just knowing how close a large Winter storm will be, at the very least.

        2. One of the mets – no idea who – mentioned that three inches is the line for plows. I had never heard anyone say that before. I am sure that is different in private areas such as hospitals. I just thought it was interesting info.

          2. No way is it 3 inches, I’ve seen many times plows plowing 3/4 inch of snow. That 3 inches was a bench mark back in the 70’s and 80’s, then in the 90’s and 00’s it went to 2 inches. The last decade it has changed to and inch or less is plowable

  56. If model divergence bothers you, here’s something you can do to make yourself feel better. Lean toward the ECMWF solution and here’s why…

    1) It’s more likely closer to the actual outcome.
    2) If it’s wrong and you love snow, you’ll be in for a very nice surprise.

    😉

    1. I have pretty much resigned myself to just that. I am trying to be more
      real in my approach, even if it doesn’t come across that way from time to time.

      It will do what it wants to do.

      I will end with “I do hope the Euro is incorrect this time around, even though I know it is probably not”.

      Even so, will be fun to see the 18Z NAM and especially the 18Z GFS as interim
      to the 0Z runs. 😀

    1. I could forgive them a little bit if they replaced “Northeast” with “Middle Atlantic”. A little bit.

  58. JP Dave and TK,

    This is the fun part! Models back and fourth I’m waiting on the NAM and GFS to send this thing south and then start to creep back up further north.

    2. Indeed. I remember a few years back it was one of these type
      situations where the model solutions were OTS.

      I was blogging back and forth with Retrac (btw, where is he? Did he leave
      the blog? Hope not, but haven’t heard from him in a long time)
      Anyway, I digress. I believe it was a Saturday and the 18Z GFS came out
      with a HUGE hit for us. And yes, indeed, it was a foot+ storm for us.

      So, yes, it CAN still change. It is oh so close either way, it cannot be ignored.

      We shall see.

  59. Arod not on in a while either. That should have been the first indication this storm might not take shape.

  61. Remember way back on the other blog someone posted..

    This blog will explode in….3…2…1

    That was pretty funny!

    1. Hey, that wouldn’t necessarily be a bad move depending on the situation.
      Cash game, STUPID. Tournament, situations where it would be a good move. 😀

      Just saying.

      But in this instance, Pete may be caught with his britches down. 😀

      1. I sincerely thought the hype would change once he got away from that tabloid crapbag of a network and into a more professional environment at NECN, but in the end, it all comes down to ratings no matter what network

        2. It sure does. I suspect he was hoping that would be the case also as I know he detested the nonsense at 7. But then he is also right much more often than wrong so who knows.

  63. 18Z NAM is out.

    Here is what we are up against.

    Surface, with Nice coastal redevelopment in Perfect position

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conusncep.php?run=2016011918&var=PCPPRSTMP_2m&hour=084

    Nice looking 500MB

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conusncep.php?run=2016011918&var=VRTHGTGRD_500mb&hour=084

    But even that hints at the problem.

    Then we have this 200MB chart, which controls the movement of the nice
    500MB configuration.

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conusncep.php?run=2016011918&var=GRDHGT_200mb&hour=084

    Note the flow over New England? That is what this storm system is fighting.
    This will cause the system to move more to the East and possibly slide out
    just South of us, either missing, fringing or grazing us. We can only hope that
    it slugs its way “just” far eanough North to get us under the heavy precip shield.

    Time will tell, but the trend says no.

    1. It may only lightly snow in the Boston area, not penetrating much north of Boston, while NYC southward will be heavily snowing.

        2. Very nice indeed. I always liked Mark.

          Despite what the Euro shows, he seems genuinely concerned. We shall see.

        4. Interesting that he’s showing the energy for the storm is already ashore on the west coast. Maybe the 18Z GFS will have this info in its initializations?

    2. Other than the fact he swore at me on the phone when I was a weather watcher back in the 1980s, he’s a pretty decent and very interesting guy. He does great presentations of weather.

  68. DT’s recent post. The headline made me laugh.
    I’m not knocking DT at all here. Despite the fact I don’t always agree with his approach, I think he’s a very interesting read…

    I don’t usually copy/paste but here it is, focused on the Richmond area…

    UN- FREAKIN BELIEVEABLE SNOW AMOUNTS FOR RICHMOND GOING UP !!! ….. WOOFIE SAURUS REX…

    NWS over the past several months has been running a beefed up amplified high resolution new GFS model with much more computing power. The plan is for this model to eventually replace the current GFS model. This is that new super high resolutions version of that GFS ensemble mean

    WHAT IS AN ENSEMBLE MEAN? Sometimes weather models produced goofy solutions so one way of getting around that is to run the model 20 30 or 40 times. The idea is based on the premise that if you run the same weather model 30 times you will get a much more probabilistic and likely scenario that will be more accurate and realistic then counting on just one model.

    Got it?

    This is the high resolution GFS ENSEMBLE SNOW forecast which has just come out. It is even colder than the midday regular GFS and now shows a HUGE snowstorm for Central Virginia –including Richmond Virginia that according to this see s 18 inches of snow !! And 21 inches of snow just to the north and west. As you can see based upon this map similar snowfall amounts can be found over Roanoke Lynchburg Charlottesville the entire Virginia Piedmont as well as extremely heavy snow into Northwest North Carolina including Greensboro and Winston Salem. This is a significant and major change in the forecast

    Will Richmond actually see this much snow? Will Greensboro? Will Charlottesville Lynchburg Tappahannock? What is important to notice here is that as we’re getting closer to this event the snow mounts on all the models are increasing not decreasing. The trend is colder not warmer. The trend is towards the European model not away from.

      1. I have no idea who it is. It’s not my friend. He’s younger than I am and wears a pony tail. 🙂

      1. It is an easy one – I’m just spending night at daughter’s so it can wait until the very last minute 🙂 We are having a sleepover with nana!

    1. It’s not that it doesn’t get up here enough (yes, that happens), BUT
      it BLOWS ITSELF OUT to our South, so when the precip gets up here,
      the heavy stuff is long gone.

      What a bummer. Oh well, there are more runs to watch to see if it comes
      back. Not looking like it, but we shall see.

  75. Already have customers calling- canceling Saturday orders . “Heard we’re getting at least a foot in Boston” seems to be the hype driven fear………

    1. It’s the same problem, over and over.

      And then if/when it doesn’t happen, they distrust all the mets, even the ones that don’t ride the hype train…

      1. I don’t know, TK. I understand the hype train and some of the com,nets. But is it equally the fault of the reader? The mets I have heard have all stressed it is early. Either way …..fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me. If folks do not know that media hypes and predicting this far out is not reliable, then I’m not sure anything will help. I would rather know there is a possibility so I can plan or not plan.

        1. In many cases the reader is at fault. But we live in a society where many people were brought up to think the news is informing us of something we need to know. I guess it will take a long while for some people to unlearn that since it appears media does not desire to make any effort to go back to responsible reporting. :/

    3. ML. Do you have a cancellation timeframe? I know there have been times my daughters have cancelled cakes for birthdays because the business would charge otherwise. We ran into that with a bakery also several years ago. We have also had bakeries give us the option of waiting until the last minute and then freezing the cake if the storm materializes. I can’t remember your business but thought maybe bakery? Can you offer them an alternative? Just a thought. I hate to see a place use business and probably am not helping at all.

  77. I really hope this trend changes….what a tease this would be….do you think Charlie might have a giant storm magnet pulling this out towards bermuda?

  78. Hi everyone. Just a quick thought as I’m about to take my daughter to ballet.

    There will be a BIG storm for some but not for US. This is a midatlantic and fish storm. The southern jet does not buckle enough to include southern new england on major snow. There will be a rather sharp gradient. It is possible that we get a moderate snow storm out of this at best but it’s just as possible that we get less than we received from the recent Norlun set up. Time will tell. I’m just not impressed…..yet 😀

    1. Ironically I was just thinking about the fact some areas may well have done better on NORLUN day then they will from the weekend event.

  79. Busy day at work…last checked after 12z GFS and was optimistic…no longer! Hopefully I’ll wake up tomorrow to a northward trend!

        2. Technically the season is done. He is done for one game and I will not jinx it by saying more 🙂 🙂

  81. Come Monday I plan to check on my relatives in the Mid-Atlantic. Last winter they checked on me frequently, so I guess I will return the favor. I remember once they received a foot plus and the schools were shut down an entire week.

  82. IIRC when TK posted his winter outlook that there would be times that big storms would be passing well to our south thanks to El Niño and its split flow.

    Am I correct on that TK? Could this be complete miss for Boston north? I am wondering if that solution is now on the table as well.

    1. Yes, this type of outcome was always a concern of mine regarding this Winter.

      The range of possibilities from complete miss to direct hit remain on the table at this point. However, if I had to pick which of the 2 extremes are the more likely, then I’d go with the miss. The reason this is going to take place is indeed the split flow. There will be virtually no interaction whatsoever between the 2 jet streams as that storm is going by our longitude. If you recall, even in pointing out back on January 10 that we needed to watch the period around January 24, I have maintained all along that even with this being one one of our better CHANCES at snow up to this point, that things still have to come together just so. It won’t snow as easily this Winter as it did the second half of last Winter.

  83. Tweet from Bernie Rayno
    starting to believe northern New Eng spared with this..however, not the case for southern New Eng, including NYC. BWI,PHL & DC in good spot

        1. Well, the model forecasts are trending south. The storm that they are depicting taking that route does not exist in a form in which we can call a storm yet, so therefore my forecast has yet to be proven neither correct nor incorrect.

          I did expect the trend south in the model forecasts and I do believe this is what ends up being the case now with this system.

          Back when I tagged January 24 about 2 weeks in advance it was only in that I expected a significant storm to be in the vicinity of the East Coast on or about that date. I made the call based on having paid close attention to several ensemble mean model loops of both the ECMWF and GFS. I noticed something that was very consistent across many of these runs but did not appear to be showing up on the operational run. This was a broad trough of low pressure coming out of the subtropical jet that seemed to be appearing over and over in the same place at the same time. The forecast was born out of this observation.

          1. Thank you for that insight. I love it when you
            share this type of information. We always have
            a learning moment. Please keep them coming.

            I am actually dealing with this most likely miss.
            I KNEW it was a possibility all along. What I do not like is the Tease these model runs give. Yes, I know, they are only doing the best they can with the information given. Still sucks. 😀

            Oh well, there “could” be a reversal with subsequent runs, even if it is not likely.
            Here’s hoping.

            Life goes on either way, so I am trying not to
            get worked up about it.

            1. We’ve seen stranger things.

              The atmosphere is a complex puzzle in which we try to fool ourselves into thinking we have all the pieces when in fact we have but a handful, and those pieces can change from event to event.

  85. Meteorologist Fred Campagna at WTNH here in CT on storm. Fred of course worked at WLNE in Rhode Island for many years before coming to CT.
    Keep in mind that the storm is just now reaching the Pacific Northwest, and it’s still a few days from developing along the East Coast. It is possible that the storm track will shift north or south, and a slight shift means a big difference with a powerful storm like this. A major Nor’easter and a complete miss are both still on the table, but the most likely scenario is for a light to moderate snow event. We’ll keep you posted.

      1. Nope, just posted his initial call and that was the info he gave. I’m guessing he was just leaving Boston out and was thinking more of the timing for his bigger amounts. He had 2 feet for DC.

  91. Hoping the 0z runs don’t show this thing trending further south and a nice surprise when I see the 0z GFS and wake up looking at the 0z EURO.

      1. True but wouldn’t be the first time we have seen a storm that looked south trend north. Living on the edge here in CT. A foot as close by as NYC on 18z GFS.

  95. 0z Nam is further north….steering currents look more favorable as well from what I can see….very interested to see the rest of the 0z guidance

    1. If you could extend that forecast out (and the NAM performed well beyond 48 hours) you’d likely see the energy rapidly shifting east on an elongating axis of low pressure. If the GFS has a clue on 00z run it will show this.

    1. Not necessarily. It will show it. It’s just a matter of whether or not it has it placed correctly.

    1. Notice that the start time keeps getting more and more delayed though…
      Several runs ago, the GFS had this thing underway Friday night.

    1. For one thing it lends more credibility to the ECMWF’s solution. It also allows more time for the energy to slip eastward without coming northward. My guess is the GFS will come in at under 6 inches for Boston. Dry air will get involved and eat away the western edge of the storm as everything swings like a dumb-bell to the east.

      1. Close, about 7 inches or so.

        0Z run was Pathetic. CmC about 2 inches is all.

        The thing runs into a brick wall, elongates and weakens.

        PATHETIC.

        I’m sure the Euro will do the same.

        1. Right in line with how this synoptic setup says things should play out. It’s nice to see the models catching on! Though the GFS probably does have a little too much precip/snow for most of the area. It needs to scale back a little more than we’ll be in business!

          The ECMWF will come out similar to the last run. It’s got this.

  102. JR says that even with the southern track, we still get plowable snow. I guess we will know everything by tomorrow at this time.

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