Thursday Forecast

330 Comments

7:35AM

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 21-25)…
High pressure in control today – fair and chilly. High pressure hangs on Friday – fair and chilly. Winter storm tracks south and east of New England this weekend – northern edge impacts here, light to possibly moderate snow amounts with the moderate amounts most likely along the New England South Coast, gusty winds for a period of time including the risk of coastal flooding near times of high tide. Improvement by late Sunday leading to a nice day Monday as high pressure returns to the region.
TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 28-35. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.
TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 8-15. Wind light NW to N.
FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 28-35. Wind N 5-15 MPH.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows in the 10s. Wind light N.
SATURDAY: Cloudy. Snow developing mainly southern areas afternoon, may mix with rain Cape Cod and Islands. Highs 28-35. Wind E increasing to 10-20 MPH except 20-30 MPH near the South Coast with higher gusts.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Chance of snow northern MA and southern NH. Snow likely southern MA and RI but may mix with rain Cape Cod and Islands. Light to moderate accumulation possible with the moderate amounts likely further south (numbers on next update or possibly later today in comments below). Lows 25-33. Wind E 15-35 MPH, strongest along the coast with higher gusts.
SUNDAY: Gradually thinning and breaking overcast with snow ending northwest to southeast. Highs in the 30s. Wind NE to N 15-25 MPH with higher gusts.
MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows 15-25. Highs in the 30s.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 26-30)…
Weak storm passes north of the region January 26 with milder air and a chance of a touch of light mix early then a chance of light rain showers later. Fair and seasonable to mild January 27-30.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 31-FEBRUARY 4)…
Fair and mild start to the period, then may turn somewhat unsettled.

330 thoughts on “Thursday Forecast”

  1. Weather maps are pretty spread out…channel 7 has a coating in Woburn while channel 5 had us in the 4″+ zone I think.

  2. Thanks TK !!

    I have to point out on the Taunton discussion that I think its a really good discussion, but then I’d offer that their conclusion doesn’t match the preponderance (sp?) of the evidence.

    They point out that the 00Z EURO looks a bit further south. That 2/3rds of the GEFS members show accumulating snow confined to the immediate south coast, that central and northern New England will have a lot of dry air ….

    And then …. the wording on potential snow accumulations and their most likely snow maps both seem to contradict ……

  4. TK, you have been pretty mum on this one…..Makes one wonder…Anyways, taking the models verbatim, this does not look good for snow in the Boston area, and even worse for me 35 miles north of there. The sharp cutoffs are very intriguing and like JP, I can’t really wrap my head around why this storm A) doesn’t progress farther north vs. east and B) why the cutoff in precip are projected to be so sharp. JP did have a nice post from the NWS on their thoughts, but it still seems so uncertain. I know myself and others will be radar watching as this unfolds, hoping for a curve ball. Every storm has a surprise, wonder what this one will be?

    1. I guarantee someone tomorrow radar watching, or several will say “it looks further north than what’s modeled” (I’m busting but it will happen). 🙂 🙂 🙂

  6. Thanks TK
    Yes Go For Snow lets hope for a surprise here when the 12z runs come out and 0z runs later. I would not bet the house were going to see changes to a snowier solution.

  7. Necn has nothing from rt 2 north. Boston on the edge of 1-2 inches. 2-4 for south of Boston to just about providence. Then 3-6 south of providence coastal ct and coastal ri.

  9. All the ingredients are in the making for a major snowstorm. However, southern new England is dodging a bullet. One ingredient necessary for such a storm is a cold high pressure to the north. However, it is the big blue H in this situation that shunts most of the heavy snows to our south. This is the reason for the sharp cut off which is why I was concerned for a couple of days now about a sharp gradient. A few inches of snow is still NOT out of the question especially south of Boston but it’s entirely possible that the Boston area does not see accumulating snow. We unfortunately will need to wait for another opportunity to arrive which doesn’t look to occur until the early to mid February after an expected moderation of temps occurs. Hope that made sense. I’m still half asleep, LOL.

  10. Al Roker says that DC should get close to their record snowfall of 28.0″ set in 1922. I guess they did not do well on their “trial run” late yesterday. There were many accidents when 1″ fell.

    2. We shall see. Not convinced. Could be, could Not be. Boston “could” get
      absolutely nothing OR it could pick up an inch or 2. We shall see.

  13. Good morning again from the office.

    Thank you TK for your timely update.

    Here’s hoping there is a major change with the 12Z runs. ha ha ha
    Highly likely not!!! We shall see.

    Oh well onto Cleveland….err next system (1/29?) 😀

    1. You guys are funny. At the same time. Like minds? Eh?

      Interesting that Bernie is feeling what I have been feeling and he is a Met.
      Hmmm I think it is wishful thinking on his part, but it sure would be nice
      IF he were onto something.

      Thanks for posting guys.

  16. This NAM 500MB chart for 1AM tomorrow morning shows what we are
    up against for getting the snow up here. Pretty decent NorthWest flow aloft
    up our way. It just forces everything South of Us.

    We need something to happen that causes this system to bully its way
    into this and push farther North. Unfortunately, I have no clue what that
    something could be? More explosive development? A slight shift in
    the Northern stream? I dunno.

    I know it’s not going to happen, but I look anyway. Funny about that, isn’t it?

  17. DC got less than an inch last night and it brought the city to a standstill. Accidents, gridlock. The salters and sanders didn’t treat the roads at all. That’s inexcusable in our nation’s capital. In excusable anywhere actually, except maybe New Orleans. Just imagine the many diplomats and other foreigners living in the city who must wonder, is this the capital of the world’s greatest superpower? I’ve always found it bizarre how poorly DC manages snow. I do understand it’s a city that doesn’t get as much as Boston. But, DC is most definitely the target for quite a number of nor’easters over the years. And yet, it’s always a mess when any snow of any magnitude hits.

    1. Well said!!

      I had never considered the diplomats from many other countries in the world.

      Excellent point.

      Pretty pathetic, isn’t it?

    2. I heard presidents helicopter grounded and his procession of cars was skidding all over. What took a bit over an hour should have taken 25 minutes.

      But DC is a mess anyway at rush hour.

      Was there an issue of a small amount of snow turning icy. We have had it happen here. Or just not being prepared?

    3. Yes. I have a friend who happens to live in the DC area and her post on facebook last night was something to the effect of …. “stay off the roads in the DC area”.

      It sent me to the radar and the obs and I had that similar thought. If this is causing a problem, what are they going to do in a couple days …..

  19. Look at the high position difference at 1/23/16 00 @ 30h.

    It looks to be a bit more south south west in position to the 6z.

  23. the way the models are making this storm track is strange but makes sense due to the High pressure placement

  24. It would be very easy for DC to avoid this snowstorm.

    Have Congress (both Chambers) meet for several hours tonight.

    Once the meetings are over, leave a bunch of doors open and that should be good for sending DC and surrounding areas well above freezing for days to come.

  26. 12z nam Huffs and puffs and tries really hard to push up here, but doesn’t quite
    make it.

    Does this leave room for a change? That is the big question.

  28. 12z Nam has shifted some again…won’t take a lot to make things more interesting. One thing to remind everyone is that taking models verbatim, we are obviously not looking at a lot of snow around here and of course if the Nam shows a sharp cut off or easterly movement it will have support from the 500mb within that model run. The question is whether or not it’s interpreting things correctly. I cannot remember a situation where the cutoff was this sharp other than what Joshua mentioned yesterday where in 2010 a storm ran into a strong Arctic High….the key difference this time I think is the temperature and dew points…..it will not be nearly as cold as it was in 2010 and the dew points won’t be nearly as low…this is why I am struggling with the basically non-existent northern shield of precipitation. This is not to say Boston gets a foot of snow, but I don’t think this story has been defined yet

  29. TK, will this split flow pattern subside anytime soon? And if not, how are we going to get snow in here the rest of the winter? I don’t mean a few little 2-3″ events, i mean a foot plus.

  30. I wonder how far South the 12Z GFS stays????
    I highly doubt that it shows ANY Northern Shift at all. We shall see.

    1. Very rudimentary explanation.

      We have a northern stream of the Jet and a Souther (or Sub Tropical)
      stream of the jet (winds at high levels, 300 and 200 mb 30,000 or so feet up)

      This El Nino season, the Southern Jet is particular powerful, but the Northern Jet (or Polar Jet) is still active as well.

      In our case we have the Southern JET buckling and bringing
      winds South to North, but at the same time the Northern Jet has
      winds NW. The Southern is bumping into the Northern and the system is shunting to the East and drying up precipitation up here.

  33. Here’s another killer for snow up here. Over Alabama and Georgia, Primary
    system then starts to redevelop on the South Carolina Coast. Generally that is
    too far South. Would Rather North Carolina or Virginia Coast. AND it does so to
    the ESE instead of Due east or north of east.

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conusncep.php?run=2016012112&var=PCPPRSTMP_2m&hour=033

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conusncep.php?run=2016012112&var=PCPPRSTMP_2m&hour=036

  35. A lot of analysis on this is being done as if the patten were similar to that of last year. That won’t lead to a good forecast when it comes down to the fine details, unless one is “right for the wrong reason”. 🙂

    1. Can’t you get to those guys?????

      TK, do you think the GFS is correct on a tad bit of ocean snow in Eastern
      MA?

      Thanks

  39. Sunshine may be back a bit early on Sunday. Progressive split flow allows that thing to haul.

    Interesting that i observed social media sites talking earlier in the week about how slow the storm was going to be moving.

    3. If only models could take a step back and think does this solution fit the overall pattern

      Mass calculations and chaos theory are to blame in losing those key facts.

    1. 0Z Euro showed something for 1/29. Mostly off shore , but it drops about
      4 inches on Boston.

      That, too, will probably exit stage RIGHT!

  41. Wbz radio Elliot Abrams says snow showers are possible from this storm in the Boston area, but said the cold high north of us doesn’t want to let much accumulation go north of southern ct and southern Ri.

        1. I didn’t say he was a DUMMY. I said he gave a report for
          DUMMIES! So the common person might understand
          without getting technical. READ!

      2. I misunderstood you, yes it’s a split flow, but I wouldn’t call the average non weather enthusias a dummie

        1. It’s just a saying. All that is meant by it was that
          it is for the lay person who does not have an understanding of the technical aspects of the Atmosphere.
          Don’t take it so personally.

          1. Agree, JP Dave. Charlie, it’s like those books you see at Barnes & Nobles – “buying a house for dummies,” “getting into college of choice for dummies,” “divorce for dummies.” The use of the word “dummy” is not intended to demean.

            2. Like when Fred Sanford used to say to Lamont….”Ya Big Dummy”… segue to the Sanford and Son theme music 🙂

  42. Tweet from NWS out of Boston
    #WinterStorm (Tech): 12z NAM much father N w/snow into SNE (Mass Pike) than 12z GFS (S coast). Staying course. Awaiting ensembles & ECMWF

    2. to me seems like a big CYA by them and most METS after the “massive storm death and destruction” start to the week

  43. I like Elliot Abrams. Calm voice. Doesn’t sensationalize. I understand why he wouldn’t use technical details – e.g., “split flow” terminology – in a forecast that is intended for `lay’ people with little or no interest in weather details.

      1. I know you were not accusing Elliot of being a dummy. I just wanted to throw in my two cents on Abrams as a forecaster and a person.

  44. Pete B. finally posted again…

    “Never put a lot of faith in the NAM myself after 36hrs. #famouslastwords “

    1. Love Pete, but he, like so many others, should own up to being wrong a few days ago when he (and others; e.g., Matt Noyes) basically assured us in SNE of a major snowstorm.

      At this point, given how far south this storm may be positioned – off South Carolina coast and heading due east, mostly – it may wind up have less impact on the nation’s capital than we all thought it would as recently as 18 hours ago.

  45. Tweet From Bernie Rayno
    It is amazing and sad to me to watch how one model one can control days of thoughts.As I said more changes to come.

  48. I have noticed that when DC gets clobbered we usually miss out and when they miss out we usually get clobbered.

  51. I bet the 12z euro will be even further south and will put the other models in their place. I bet most in southern new england do not see much in the way of accumulating snow but sees a lot of wind and coastal concerns.

  52. euro sends it east.
    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf&region=us&pkg=mslpa&runtime=2016012112&fh=48&xpos=0&ypos=454
    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf&region=us&pkg=mslpa&runtime=2016012112&fh=48&xpos=0&ypos=454
    then sends it east /northeast
    High pressure from the north and west pushes it east.
    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf&region=us&pkg=mslpa&runtime=2016012112&fh=48&xpos=0&ypos=454

    1. Sorry, but it is the SPLIT FLOW that sends it on its way towards the EAST.
      It came as far North as possible, then it could go no farther. 😀

    1. Wow!! So that was run at 10AM this morning I presume.

      It says 15Z and it is the 72 hour forecast, which would be 15Z Sunday AM.

      The big questions ARE:

      1. What the bleep does this proprietary model see that the others don’t????
      2. How freakin reliable is this model?? (I’ve known it to be big time wrong and
      big time correct)

      Yet another tease, just when we are ready to bang the final nail into the
      coffin.

      At this point I would totally and complete DISCOUNT it. 😀

  55. I find it interesting that the split flow is preventing a snowstorm and yet allowed last Saturday’s coastal to bring us plenty of rain. Can you explain TK?

    1. Just the configurations of each flow at the time.
      Unfortunately, at this time, the configuration is such that it
      ain’t gonna happen.

  57. North Carolina has declared a state of emergency and American Airlines has cancelled all flights in Charlotte.

    What. is. happening. I DID NOT sign up for this.

    1. That’s what happens when you move from Boston to North Carolina. You bring a taste of Boston to folks who aren’t accustomed to it.

      There will be plenty of shoveling at the Panthers’ stadium this weekend. To get the job done quickly, the Panthers may ask fan volunteers to help with snow clean-up to prepare for Sunday.

      1. That would be super fun. Panthers fans are great folks. I wear my Gronk jersey to the bars and they’re all good sports about it.

        I’ll root for them because they’re in the harmless NFC (hehehe) but if the time comes….GO PATS!

    2. LOL ….. In Wilmington, NC where my brother-in-law lives, 1 inch of snow will shut schools down for days, yes DAYS !!!

      1. That’s no joke. They “brine” the roads here… sometimes… but it does nothing if more than a coating comes down. People here are NUTS!

    3. DS – thanks for the update. I will give Mac’s family in Charlotte a call today.

      What are they expecting for snow in Charlotte area? I know it is not prepared.

      1. Different sources say different thing. Biggest problem for immediate metro area is ice. They are predicting .7in of ice in Charlotte. If you’re heading north, out of Mecklenburg County and towards Lake Norman (where I am), we are expecting .5 of ice and 4-6 of snow.

        1. Thank you. That’s a lot of ice. Ice is not well managed no matter where you are. Stay safe.

          Oddly, Mac’s cousin was going to head up here in the not too distant past but said Boston weather worries her. She has lived in Charlotte all of her life.

  58. Thanks, Vicki, for the story on “Cold Friday.” The reference to Thoreau was interesting, as were the anecdotes about the New Hampshire farmers. Life was really tough then. The cold killed many.

  59. I am looking forward to talking about a different weather event in the future.

    (I am not inferring in anyway that this was one talked about too much, just that I’m ready for something else) 🙂 🙂 🙂

  61. 18Z NAM has come farther NORTH than at the same time period as did the 12Z run
    by about 50 miles. Doesn’t mean it will come up here. Could this run has it moving
    faster. We shall see. 😀

  62. Its short range models vs long range models. NAM and from what I am reading on twitter SREF is giving accumulating snow to SNE. Root for those short range models snow lovers. I am going to be honest I would be surprised if the short range models are right.

    1. All we need is a 250-300 mile shift north and we’ll have ourselves a blizzard … Unlikely. But you, JJ, may be on the northern edge of the storm and could have an inch or two on the ground to pretty things up.

    1. Don’t discount it entirely. Discount the 2 feet part – NAM always overdoes the qpf – but your region may get snowier than we think. Notice the cutoff. Dramatic is an understatement.

  64. What you’re seeing with models such as the 18z NAM is the struggle of the programming to handle what will be a very sharp cut off as well as the northern edge of the storm being obliterated by unfavorable conditions just to the north.

    Note how after it looks like we’re about to get it here in the Boston area it just goes POOF.

    2. Tell me, what is the utility of a model output like that? (it obviously costs money to operate, and maybe taxpayers money too) How is something allowed to operate that is oh so wrong. Not even by a little bit.

      1. I believe it’s government (if I am wrong, correct me). If it is, money is no object, right or wrong.

      2. JMA used to say that he totally discounted the SREF because
        it was POLLUTED with the NAM.

        Wonder where he is these days?

          1. That reminded me randomly. Isn’t there a Japanese weather model? Is it no longer or just so awful no one looks at it anymore?

  66. In theory the shorter range models should be more reliable than the medium or long range models, but I feel like they just really haven’t been all that dependable…could be perception, I’m not sure. With a gradient this tight, there could be big disparities within the same town!

    1. Short range most reliable within 24 hrs. Technically we’re still in the medium range for this storm.

  67. It appears if you live north of Providence this will basically a nonevent, wbz radio just said Boston coating to 2 inches, Providence southward up to 4 inches. And anyone north of Boston may not see a flake.

          1. Don’t worry, Charlie. Despite what NAM is spitting out, you’ll be virtually snow-free in Attleboro. I really think so. Cloudy snow skies will make it seem like an impending storm, but little if anything will reach the ground. That’s my humble opinion, of course, informed by models and discussions on this blog.

  73. The ONLY thing that still gives me hope, even at this hour, there is an energy transfer yet to take place. Any time there is a transfer of energy to another low, a multitude of things can go wrong with the forecast.

    1. Good point, however, even if it transfers more North than modeled or more
      West than modeled, it will still hit the WALL up here and get shunted Eastward.

      But I know what you are saying. IF it were to travel up the coast more to
      the West, perhaps it would have a chance of moving more Northward before
      being shunted Eastward.

      I’m with you, but I do not hold out much hope.

      I’ll say this. IF something were to happen and it gets up as far as the Boston
      area, there are going to be many,many embarrassed Mets.

    1. By about 75 miles, the best I can tell. Again this could just be a speed up
      in forward motion, but it doesn’t look like that.

      1. Nope. I got fooled by that sliver of Ocean snow and thought it
        was part of the main shield. NO SUCH LUCK!

  76. GFS nudged north… but not nearly enough for SNE. We’re gradually seeing model convergence. Toss the 12km NAM (FWIW, the 32km and 4km nests are better). The real tricky spot, as it always seems to be, will be the NYC area. Right on the edge. Their NWS office has 8-12″. Too high I think.

    What a loaded storm to the south though. I still like 24″ for DC, but 30″ is entirely possible, it’ll depend on the mesoscale banding.

    1. On closer look, I agree. Nudged is the word.

      Look at the 4KM NAM radar images and then compare with snowmap.
      Doesn’t match up there at all. 😀

      Hey, we’ll be getting in range for the HRRR soon. 😀

  78. The differences between 18z runs of GFS and NAM at 500mb are astounding.

    The NAM practically sinks it’s teeth into the northeast while the GFS sends the low right out with ridging quickly moving in behind it. Lower res model such as GFS will see the progressive pattern better than the high res NAM model.

    FYI, 6z and 18z runs are actually useful due to more sounding launches.

  79. Harvey playing it smart, he has 1-4 from Boston south, and coating to 1 Boston north. 3-5 coastal ct coastal ri

  83. Looking like many will be well into the 40’s next week, especially Mon-Thursday. Then a few days colder, then back to mild. This storm will not usher in cold air like one would think.

  85. Charlie I am in west central CT.
    Don’t buy the 2 feet 18z NAM showed. 18z GFS did show about 3 inches of snow. Were on the edge here more than you are up there as 8-12 inches is a close by as Long Island and NYC with blizzard watch up for those areas.

  86. I know the models show big snow just south of NYC and a few extend that big snow into southernmost CT ….

    I just don’t think big snow makes it further north than north-central NJ, falling 30 miles or so south of NYC.

    I feel for the NYC forecasters. Didn’t one of the February storms that clobbered us last year leave NYC with 3-6 inches of snow when the models were showing 2ft.

    I understand this pattern to last year’s pattern is apples to oranges, but to have 2 successive winters with a storm of a big snow gradient so close by is quite the challenge. I wonder what the local mets down there are going with ??

  87. Ok so I watched Harvey all night tonight and you saw what I posted for Boston above right . He just comes on again an hour later and now saying Boston could get 2+ what the heck gives here .

    1. Hi John. I’m not sure anything gives. I think the big picture message in either case is not much, if any snow in Boston. I’m guessing no snow vs 2 inches for you is big though because it probably impacts whether you get called in or not.

        1. Well, hopefully tomorrow, within 24 to 36 hrs of the storm, the certainty of what’s going to happen on the storms northern edge will be near 100%.

        2. Either way it looks like a light nuisance type event, except along the coast where wind could cause problems, and coastal ct and coastal RI 🙂

  88. Tom that was the January Blizzard when 2 feet plus was forecasted by the EURO. The GFS was right and NYC had far less snow than predicted.
    WNBC and WABC going with 6-12 inches for NYC

  90. I’m just glad we missed this, I don’t want any snow events over 2-4 inches. Easy snow events that don’t cause major problems, easy clean up, and with a El Niño year, it seems like it melts quickly. I’m not saying this to bug any snow lovers, after last year I think we have had our fill of snow until 2017.

    1. I can’t believe how fast January has flown by. Feb is right around the corner and temps looks to start above average, unlike last year.

      1. Well, last time I checked, there are still 10 days left in January. Slow down and enjoy life, dude. 🙂

              1. You convinced yourself there were only 30 days in January because you don’t like Winter. 😛

                Well I have worse news: There are 29 days in February this year. Winter just got longer by 1 day. 😉

          1. Been here all night. Was celebrating Mom’s bday with her. 🙂

            My first and probably final #’s forecast will appear in the pre-dawn hours.

              1. She did. 🙂
                I think Boston gets up to 1 inch. I’m a little concerned they never actually get into the steady snow though, so they could get a trace or nothing from that and a small batch of ocean-snow that won’t amount to much. So the up to 1 inch is qualified and probably means less than 1 inch.

      1. Just got back from Bermuda, I sold many many plow accts, it’s just to much John, ruins the trucks, and couldn’t plan anything from Dec-early March. I have a few local accounts that I kept, but we don’t plow unless it reaches the 2 inch amount. And a few only want there property plowed at 3 inches. Only about 10 accounts, easy stuff John 🙂

  91. Well, on the heels of an interesting 21z SREF run… The new NAM will surely generate some buzz. I’ll leave it up for discussion whether that buzz is warranted 😉

    1. The buzz is more in that the NAM has been drinking. Or it’s just flat out wasted.

      One clue that it’s a mess: Follow the surface low position panel to panel. And take your Dramamine before you try it.

    1. Would defy logic. Lows don’t do “random walks.” Though they may deviate in some ways from a model’s predicted course their path is delineated by prevailing patterns – jet streams and the like – and positioning of high and low pressure areas. With my rudimentary skills I can’t see the primary low deviating from its projected path by more than, say, 75 miles or so. In order for SNE to get hit a 200 mile + deviation would need to occur.

      2. I remember a storm in December of 09 was expected to miss and at the last minute hit us with 8-20″ the jack pot was se mass. Not saying this will happen but you never truly know until the storm has past

        1. It was the 18z runs on Thursday that showed a trend to SNE getting snow for Saturday back in 2009.

          1. Are you sure I thought it was Friday. It definitely was the 18z I do remember that. You are probably right

  95. Of course all the non-met FB weather pages have bought the NAM without question. Gee, what a surprise. No application of meteorology necessary.

    1. That’s ok, they have no credibility, those folks are all over the place from model run to model run.

  98. If DC gets as much snow as they say, it must mean one thing…Al Gore is in town for a global warming conference HAHA.

    1. Can you elaborate? So it should be more accurate right or are you referring to the equipment failure piece?

      1. I was thinking the same thing North.

        If it’s the first thing, then I’d offer there needed to be extra atmospheric info as well in SE Canada towards just north of the Great Lakes to get a read on the split flow.

  100. The Nam has to give one pause, it has to….if all other guidance was showing a direct hit and the Nam showed a miss it would sure give me pause as a snow lover….no matter what happens this will be a great learning experience for us all….looking forward to more surprises

  101. Thank the good lord we have tk here to tell us what model run is bad, and what ones are good. If we didn’t it would be like the non weather related fb pages.

    1. Not 100% certain. But it’s highly unusual to see a jump that big without something being off. Scott was ahead of me on this one. He pointed out the run and the missing data via the link above. I must admit I don’t often look at those reports so I’m not sure to what degree this would impact the model.

  104. Here is a tweet from Harvey Leonard, it actually shocks me. Storm may move farther north..raising snow amounts..NewsCenter 5 at 11 #wcvb
    He can’t be basing all of this on the Nam?

    1. TOO SOON.
      Mistake by Harvey.

      GFS will stay south. Majority will be staying south. NAM = outlier. Even it’s 4km counterpart is not as robust as the 32km.

  108. Guys we have to be realistic this storms not coming! I can’t wait until this thing goes by so we can watch something else.

    1. I agree!! This blog is up and down and all around. I believe like you said “next”!!! I will say again, and be grateful we have tk. 🙂

      1. He tweeted that he was going to up the amounts and then refrained from doing so on the 11PM news.

    1. I bet he looked at the RGEM and GFS. I can find out for sure later. My colleague is in regular contact with him.

  113. I’d like to thank everyone here for the links, for the interpretation of the links, for explanations of the interpretation. It is a weather blog. Models change rapidly. It is a education but more so it would be one heck of a boring blog without the discussion.

    Mostly of course, thank you TK for your input but also for giving us the forum that allows others a chance to share their knowledge.

  114. Canadian looks a tad north but precip field smaller and compressed. Put a fork in it especially tomorrow morning when the 00z euro comes out. Highs next week in the 30s but low 40s east of i95 , I really do not believe there will be to much warmth as the so called warmer wind will be going over areas with a descent snowpack at the time.

  116. Good evening. Hmmm

    I’m beginning to think the GFS is TOO far South.
    The CMC came further North. I won’t discuss the NAM.
    The SREF just got a bunch More robust.

    http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/sref.php?run=latest&id=SREF_SNOWFALL_MEAN12HR_

    I await the 6Z NAM to see it go OTS, but it has been somewhat consistent.
    I also know the SREF has many NAM members as part of its ensembles, so
    It would likely go the way of the NAM. Only plus for the SREF, is that it
    is an ensemble run, and what we see is the mean.

    I’d like to see ALL members.

    So when I get up, I’ll look at the 6Z NAM and GFS and the 0Z Euro and FIM.

    IF Euro and GFS are still South, then that’s it.

    IF they pull a little North, it could get interesting.

    Good night all

    1. incorrect sir. Euro has come North. To be sure not by a huge margin, but
      from virtually no snow for Boston to 3 or 4 inches. That is still a signifcant
      change imho.

  120. Actually Charlie the 06z GFS has increased some totals and NAM is more reasonable. I still don’t think anything really changes but from what I can see all 06z runs seemed a tick further north.

  121. That tick north or south is going to make a big difference with this storm.
    The 0z run of GFS was showing nothing for SNE. 6z run of GFS does show some snow for the southern areas of SNE.

  122. I have an employee who works at a grocery store in Wellsley – says there have been runs on milk, bread, toilet paper……..in Wellsley!

  123. So now it’s looking like Boston will see some accumulation of snow tomorrow and I think the afternoon vs night is that correct . Boy the swings in this thing . Maybe Ch 5 was right all along . Could Boston receive more than the 2-4 range .

  124. Good morning all. As I said last night, I have looked at the models:

    6Z NAM, GFZ and RGEM. 03Z SREF
    0Z EURO and FIM.

    NAM a tick South, while ALL others have moved North. including the Euro.
    The SREF is popping its cork.

    So as of this writing, I think we have to take the coating to 2 inches for Boston down
    and replace it with something like 2-4 or 3-5 at the least with “possibly” considerably
    more. This system has been an enigma.

    Here is representative snow maps:

    SREF 12 hour total ending 6Z Sunday (there is more than this. This is just the largest 12 hour total)

    http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/gifs/latest/SREF_SNOWFALL_MEAN12HR_f051.gif

    FIM totals

    http://fim.noaa.gov/FIM/for_web/fim7_jet/2016012200/t3/totsn_sfc_f072.png

    CMC totals

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2016012200/gem_asnow_neus_12.png

    GFS totals

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016012206/gfs_asnow_neus_12.png

    Ok that’s 4. Mesoscale models next

    2. Here are the various mesoscale models

      32KM NAM

      http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2016012206&time=PER&var=ASNOW&hour=072

      12KM NAM

      http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2016012206/namconus_asnow_neus_29.png

      4km NAM

      http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam4km/2016012206/nam4km_asnow_neus_21.png

      WRF-ARW (not sure of resolution) (only through 0Z Saturday evening)

      http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/wrf-arw/2016012200/wrf-arw_asnow_neus_48.png

      Ok that’s 4. I have a couple more

  125. So close to that heavier snow here in CT that looks to fall Long Island NYC. It would not take that much of a shift north to get those heavier bands of snow my way.

    1. Good, because it wasn’t official. You got a bonus #. Official #’s come out in about 1/2 hour. 🙂

  128. I still don’t think Boston sees much, for that matter most of the southernmost New England.

    I don’t see many if any changes to the atmospheric flow.

    If that split flow idea is still in play and there’s a buy in to the mid-Atlantic snow area, what is going to cause the snow area to have a 3 to 4 degree latitude shift north into southern New England if the thrust of the motion of the entire system is mostly an eastern trajectory.

    Doesn’t make sense to me. I don’t buy these current trends north into southern New England.

    1. I disagree Tom. It is subtle, but there is now too much evidence
      to dismiss it. Does it mean we get it full force, no. Does it mean we get
      more than than up to inch, at this point I say yes. Now the big question
      is how much.

      This may be a now casting event tomorrow. 😀 It’s just that close

      All it takes is for the Northern stream to relax just a bit and recede Northward
      by a very small distance.

  130. And now comes my “court moment”.
    No changes to what? I had not put out “official numbers” and stated that would not be the case until the Friday morning update, so therefore, as far as my forecast is concerned, there was nothing to change and nothing to leave alone yet. And after looking at the Euro’s snow map, it has fallen pretty close to my initial accumulation idea (with a few tweaks to come). Makes it easy for me. Working on the update now… 😀

  131. From Taunton NWS
    THE 00Z EC HAS 6
    INCH SNOWFALL CONTOUR STRADDLING THE SOUTH COAST OF RI AND MA.
    INTERESTINGLY THE 00Z 51 MEMBER EPS IS HEAVIER AND FARTHER NORTH
    THAN THE OP RUN WITH 6″ SNOW CONTOUR NORTHWARD TO IJD/SFZ/GHG!

    1. This is getting interesting and MORE interesting with each run.

      This has been frustrating, yet fun to watch at the same time. 😀

      1. How is it frustrating? 😀

        It’s fun: Let the computers battle with these #’s and watch them almost blow up because of how we programmed them. And all along analyze the situation from a couple steps back, using whatever method you feel suits the set-up best. Then at the end you come up with something… It’s time to come up with something. 🙂

        1. It’s frustrating because of the atmospheric conditions we have this tug of war back and forth.

          If it’s not going to snow, fine, just don’t tease us.
          Big storm. No Storm. A little. None. no wait a minute
          some. Well Maybe. WTF, I dunno.

          It’s that stuff that gets frustrating, and as I said, fun
          at the same time.

          Let’s see, my guess You’re going to say coting to inch North, 1-3 for Boston, 3-5 South and 6+ South coast. 😀

          1. Oh I’d replace the word “frustrating” with “fascinating”. But that’s me. 🙂

  132. Last evening, Eric was content with his coating to 2 inches for Boston.
    He said even after the new information, he thought his numbers were in line.

    I can’t get the image for you, but Danielle Niles of channel 4 can’t make her own
    maps and has Eric’s from last night. Coating to 2 inches. 😀

    Here is channel 5’s latest map. Has Boston at about 2 inches with 2-4 South of
    the City

    https://scontent-lga3-1.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-xap1/v/t1.0-9/12510223_1061527617202831_6574028957634708185_n.jpg?oh=6ceaf0c29b9470e9bad1f8998dae1477&oe=57026744

    1. Dave I am looking at that heavier snow band on Long Island and wondering if I could get into it if there is that slight shift north.

  133. Now casting situation tomorrow! Have to watch for any slight shifts north or south which will make a BIG difference.

  134. Before I finish and publish the next update, here is where I think I’m going with my #’s…

    3-6 South Coast (southern RI, FAR southeastern MA, southern part of Cape, and Islands but may be a little less toward the outer Cape and Nantucket because of some rain involved.

    1-3 just north of here up to about the Pike.

    Around 1 inch to mostly under that heading north from there to just a touch of light snow once you get to north central MA and southwestern NH.

    And REMEMBER SOMETHING!
    3-6, does not mean 6. It means 3-6.
    1-3, does not mean 3. It means 1-3.
    I’m going to get that habit out of people’s heads if it’s the last thing I do!

    1. Btw, In my humble opinion, you are being too conservative at this time.
      I understand completely why, but I think Boston comes in at something
      like 4-6 if not higher. We shall see. I am a run away from changing my mind.
      😀 😀 😆

    1. Classic blend of GFS and Euro totally discounting ALL MESOSCALE models.
      Is that correct or a mistake? Time will tell.

      1. Can’t say as I blame them at this time. I’ll bet they are worried
        about those Mesoscale models. They take the conservative
        approach knowing they can update the maps with higher
        totals IF conditions warrant it.

        Nothing like putting out a foot and being dead wrong.
        Better to put out 2-3 inches now and up it to 6-12 later IF
        necessary.

        I get it. I understand.

        BUT I’d like to know what they are really thinking.

        1. They’re doing it because in reality it may be that the south coast gets 6 inches and Boston gets nothing to 1. They know how sharp the cut-off is going to be.

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