Sunday Forecast

42 Comments

10:39AM

Making a few tweaks in details and timing but no massive changes from yesterday’s overall ideas.

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 27-31)
High pressure remains in control and will hold early in the week. It looks like tropical moisture in the form of a tropical cyclone will pass south of New England Tuesday night and Wednesday and bring the cloudiness that I mentioned in, and it may be close enough to toss some rain onto the South Coast as well but this will not turn out to be a major storm or anything lasting. The uncertainty was already known and remains somewhat as this area of disturbed weather still has a somewhat uncertain future and we can only go largely by the most reliable guidance we have at this point, so further tweaks may be necessary. I’m also going to adjust the timing of a cold front that I had mentioned for next Friday, and thinking that now arrives by late Thursday.
TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 70-78, coolest coast. Wind light NE to E.
TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 47-57, coolest interior valleys. Wind light variable.
MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 70-78, coolest coast. Wind NE to E 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 50-58. Wind light E.
TUESDAY: Increasing clouds. Highs 68-75, coolest East Coast. Wind NE 5-15 MPH except 10-20 MPH with higher gusts late South Coast.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Chance of rain early South Coast. Lows from the middle 50s to lower 60s. Highs in the 70s.
THURSDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Chance of late-day shower or thunderstorm. Lows from the upper 50s to lower 60s. Highs from the middle 70s to lower 80s.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 1-5)
At this time Friday September 1 through Sunday September 3 look dry with a cool start and a warmer finish. Monday September 4 and/or may still turn showery with another front and potential tropical moisture. Lower confidence with time on this part of the forecast.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 6-10)
Skeptical of medium range guidance and staying with an idea of warmer/drier overall.

42 thoughts on “Sunday Forecast”

      1. Add in 2.88 inches from 9pm to midnight, with 1 hr not reporting an hourly total during that 3 hr period.

  3. Thanks, TK
    Yesterday, Bostbliz posted a comment from Houston (obviously someone in media made it up) calling the storm Hurricane Hardly. I know it drives TK nuts when such BS comes out of the media just to get attention. In this case, Houston never had a hurricane warning. They had a tropical storm warning. Furthermore, Greater Houston is the size of a small planet. Just because someone is sitting in an area of temporary quiet, doesn’t mean that there aren’t people in trouble. My daughter is in Missouri City which is Greater Houston. While that Hurricane Hardly comment was going around, possibly getting people to let their guard down, a tornado touched down within walking distance of her house. Last night, they had to sleep in the laundry room and were constantly woken up because of tornado warnings….fortunately none touched down near them this time. I guess media stupidity isn’t just one of our local attributes. It has been exported….at least to the Houston area.

    If you want to get a feel of how terrible the situation is down there, there is a facebook page for Hurricane Harvey. Many posts from people in life threatening situations looking for immediate help. Hurricane Hardly, indeed!

    1. How awful. I cannot imagine what your daughter and all in the path of Harvey are dealing with. I’ll go to the FB page. We have been putting some things together here in case folks ask for supplies, clothes, etc.

      There have been odd comments on blogs from some in the Houston area indicating if was all a lot of hype about nothing. I just shake my head. But we see the same here when one area doesn’t get snow amounts forecast while others are inundated. People are odd and you simply cannot fix stupid

      That said, I was surprised when the Houston mayor told people not to evacuate when the governor told them to evacuate. I did see his video so know the media didn’t make it up.

    1. This is a great site. It will help those outside of the area know whatbis needed. I would like to share it if that is all right. I want to ask you first though.

  7. The other reason I am obsessing is (drum roll for full disclosure). My first name is HARVEY!
    My daughter keeps jokingly asking me to end this…oh, but only if I could.

  8. Really no words from me for the Houston floods… it’s something we’ve never seen before and hopefully never will again.

    Closer to home… NHC is up to a 70% chance of tropical development from the SE US system, which satellite imagery shows is getting closer to becoming a tropical depression or storm. That system will produce very heavy rainfall over portions of the Southeast. Even today, I still haven’t totally written off local impacts. The 12z GFS shows why. It still looks like a miss or at worst a “Cape Scrape” like the GFS shows, but one concern I have is a lot of models, for example the 12z ECMWF, are likely under-doing the development over the next 48 hours.

    1. I often wonder what the reaction of the media would be if Galveston 1900 happened to be Galveston 2017.

  10. Besides the hurricane itself and the tragedies along with it; all I can say is how sad it is that in a situation like this some things have all gotten messed up. And all I can say is my thoughts and prayers are for all down in TX and wherever else this hurricane has hit.

  11. SE US system is now Potential Tropical Cyclone 10, with the first NHC advisory upcoming at 5PM. I’m not sure just how tropical this system will be. 18z NAM depiction looks hybrid at best. Won’t really change things much though.

  12. Red Sox lose yet again. 🙁

    Not to mention that the Celts-Cavs deal may be nixed…Cavs want more due to IT’s injury. Might have known too good to be true.

  13. NHC 2PM Wednesday forecast position for PTC 10 is 40N 66W. I bet it gets close to or inside 68W…

    1. I wondered if they would head there. This is the best of America. It may sadly take a disaster to find it, but it is always there

  17. If you think Harvey is not something that will affect the entire country think again.
    Tweet from Patrick DeHaan of Gas Buddy.
    National average #gasprice hits accelerator, rises to $2.38/gal on #HurricaneHarvey and refinery shutdowns. Plenty more expected.

    1. Thank you, JJ. This doesn’t surprise me. I think it was Philip (maybe) who had said a few days ago that Harvey would affect gas prices. Or was it you JJ?? I cannot recall all Mac had said with regard to gasoline. He tested a good deal of the crude oils used and I seem to recall that mixtures that went into gasoline originated from many different areas. Certainly, the gulf would be one important area.

      1. it does seem drier, however, perhaps there is reserve moisture
        in the soil from all of the previous rain??? I dunno

      2. I thought it seemed drier also, Ace. I noted that Milford’s water company sign said their waterways are at 80% capacity. The areas around here are fairly low although…and repeating…I’m not familiar enough with this area to know its normal levels.

          1. Our irrigation system was every other day and I upped it to every day about a week ago. Each zone was about 20-25 minutes with the two that get most sun at 30. I literally just increased all zone times. Even the absolutely perfect lawns in the neighborhood are browning.

            That said…..we have absolutely no shade on our lawns. Trees/woods surround the neighborhood but are not in the neighborhood.

  20. Latest from Missouri City, Texas:
    My daughter, son in law and grandson are moving everything they can to the 2nd floor. Very iffy if the levees will hold. It’s a new subdivision and the levees are supposed to hold for 100 years. Bet they didn’t figure on Harvey.
    Talked to her at 830am Houston time. She was pulling into the H.E.B. parking lot an hour before opening time. Said that the line was already around the building.
    And yes….it was raining.
    She has a great attitude. Said how fortunate she is that all she is worried about is standing in line in the rain and maybe losing a few things like appliances which are easily replaceable. No need for rescue boats, shelters, etc.

    1. Thank you, Weatherbee. I…as I’m sure is the case with everyone here..have been keeping your family in my prayers.

      If the levees do not hold, will they then need to evacuate? I would be horribly disappointed (not surprised) if they did not expect a Harvey. I cannot tell you how much your updates are appreciated.

Comments are closed.