Monday Forecast

45 Comments

8:29AM

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 27-DECEMBER 1)
A secondary cold front is pushing through the region first thing this morning hence the cloudiness and a few isolated snow flurries. Drying should allow for the sun to become dominant as the day goes on but along with a gusty wind and chilly air. But this chilly shot of air will be short-lived, and our progressive pattern will bring milder weather right back in Tuesday and especially Wednesday as we get a “quiet” warm frontal passage Tuesday, basically the return of the boundary that comes through today. Another cold front will cross the region Wednesday, devoid of precipitation but carrying an area of cloudiness with it, but this will be the mildest day of this week. Thursday’s cool-down will pack less punch than that of today. When we get to the end of this work week and the first day of December on Friday, we’ll likely see a wet day, with temperatures mild enough for rain instead of any mix/snow, as low pressure arrives from the west.
Detailed forecast…
TODAY: Lots of clouds limiting sun through mid morning, a few spotty snow flurries, then decreasing clouds and increasing sun late morning on. Highs 43-49. Wind NW 5-15 MPH with gusts over 20 MPH.
TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 23-29. Wind NW 5-15 MPH with higher gusts.
TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 43-49. Wind W 5-15 MPH with higher gusts.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 33-39. Wind WSW 5-15 MPH with higher gusts.
WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 53-59. Wind WSW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts, shifting to NW.
THURSDAY: Increasing clouds. Rain arriving during the night. Lows in the 30s. Highs in the 40s.
FRIDAY: Cloudy. Periods of rain. Temperatures steady in the 40s.

DAYS 6-10 (DECEMBER 2-6)
On yesterday’s forecast I had hinted of a possible cut-off low pressure area arriving Friday and hanging around into if not through the weekend. Current indications are that this system will be more progressive as it comes through here, slowing down once it is further to the east, with any wet weather departing by early Saturday December 2 and breezy, cool but not cold, and dry weather for the balance of the first weekend of December. The early part of next week should feature fair weather and milder than average temperatures.

DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 7-11)
The pattern will start to become more amplified as we head toward mid December. However, this does not mean an immediate dive into colder and higher snow chances for New England. We may be temporarily trapped on the warmer side of the pattern for this particular period of time, with fair weather for a few days and then unsettled weather as the trough to the west begins an eastward advancement. Will closely monitor the evolution of this expected pattern change.

45 thoughts on “Monday Forecast”

  2. Good morning and thank you TK.

    Not only that, but a hearty thank you for your very thoughtful and insightful
    Winter forecast. Outstanding!! We are most fortunate to have you.

    And thank you for all of your hard work.

  3. I second what JP Dave said above.

    While we can’t do anything about the weather – though the Soviets tried under Brezhnev (eg, cloud seeding) – we can predict and explain weather and climate phenomena. We’re lucky to have TK provide us with insightful and in-depth predictions and explanations of the weather and climate.

    1. Indeed AND in a NO-HYPE fashion that is much appreciated.

      Now, if we could get out of the doldrums we are currently experiencing, that
      would be nice.

      But in all seriousness, I have noticed over the years that we generally don’t
      emerge into full Winter weather until sometime between the 10th and 20th of
      December, varying year to year of course. Some years we never seem to break into Winter. I have seen it happen as early as Thanksgiving, but that is rare.
      I have seen it early in December around the 5th, but the 10th to the 20th would be more typical.

      We just have to be patient. Expecting full Winter weather prematurely is
      a recipe for frustration.

      I keep looking at the medium range global models, and I see NOTHING
      to get excited about just yet. I am hopeful the anticipated pattern change
      for “around” the 10th or so materializes. So far, the GFS has not caught one.

      In fact I see a Cutter that is way beyond a cutter. We could almost call it
      a “Canadian Prairie Buster”. Have a look:

      https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017112706/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_38.png

  4. I mentioned this elsewhere on the “interwebs” and will paraphrase it here. I have not been on board with too rapid a pattern change in recent days. The GFS especially, and even sometimes the other global models, tend to rush these changes by simply slightly under forecasting or over forecasting the amplitude of even a single feature.

    The blocking may initially set up in such a way that the ridge, instead of being right over Greenland, is displaced slightly south and east. What this will allow for is a height fall and resultant short amplitude and slightly elongated trough southwest of Greenland, an induced ridge behind that, and as a result of that “block within a block” the more serious trough (the part of the PV that comes south when the main PV becomes unstable and breaks down) may end up punching southward further west – Great Lakes to Great Plains at first. This would delay the chill-down further east, and this is why I want to stay with above normal temperatures during my 11-15 day period for now. We should start to see the first stage of change by the end of that period, provided the block to the east readjusts itself. These things cannot be fully known this far in advance and these are the types of atmospheric occurrences that bust long range forecasts on a fairly regular basis. 😉

    1. SO, in other words we should expect a delay.

      If this delay occurs, does it SHORTEN our window
      for cold and snow chances? OR simply shift that window?

      Tx

      1. History shows that a delay is typical (based on model forecast timelines).

        It remains to be seen if the window will be shortened or just shifted. That will depend on the staying power of the -AO / -NAO.

        I was actually ready to forecast above normal snowfall for Boston (not by much, but 5-10 inches higher than I have now). When I noticed this delay being possible, that triggered me to lower it slightly.

        1. Awesome. Love your analysis.

          Now we wait and see how it all plays out.

          Would not surprise me to see the delay even longer than expected. Hope not.

          1. I don’t think it will delay any further, but I do think it will come on in, persist for 10 or so days, relax, then reload.

            1. Love it. Will enjoy watching it unfold.

              I really don’t care what the season total is, but I sure would like to see ONE big one
              this Winter.

              Define BIG: 18+ inches for an event.

              Yes, I know, a tall order.

              But I am placing it just the same. 😀

  5. Each run of the GFS is more progressive than the last with that late-week system. The 12z run has all rain over by early afternoon Friday and clearing before the day is over.

      1. Yup …. You get the same temperature in Edmonton, AB and Oklahoma City, OK under this pattern …. about 40F to 45F.

        I feel like these general anomalies have dominated for many recent years, if not the last decade.

  9. Last night, I happened to check ESPN and the Grey Cup (I believe the Super Bowl of the Canadian Football League) was on.

    I stayed on it for a bit because the field was covered with a coating of snow and it was lightly snowing. During heavier snow storms, I always enjoy when you have to guess what yard line the line of scrimmage is at because its difficult or impossible to see the markings on the field.

    1. So did I, Tom. I think the game was in Ottawa. Although I am not a huge fan of the CFL, I do like the wide open play of Canadian football. Toronto came from behind to win the Grey Cup over Calgary.

      I love watching football in the snow. I like remembering the Snow Bowl (Tuck Rule) game during the Pats’ first Super Bowl run.

  10. Hey Matt:

    Aren’t you finishing up your undergraduate work this semester? When is your last final/project if you don’t mind me asking?

  12. So it looks like the multi-day soaking rainstorm for the end of week/weekend period has morphed into a highly uneventful cold frontal passage with maybe a few showers if we’re lucky. Ah, the joys of medium range weather forecasting 😉

    Doesn’t exactly inspire confidence in predictions for mid December and beyond. Still looks like the pattern change is on the way by mid month, but clearly it will be some time before we know any details on what it may mean for our weather.

      1. For Saturday? We’ll be on the back side of the front by then, so it should be a cooler day. Let’s go with 36 at kickoff, climbing to 43 by the final whistle 🙂

        Check back in the days ahead of course! Looks like it should be dry.

        1. Thanks, Coach…
          I have a feeling that the temps will stay in the upper 30s. With the sun so low in the sky, it will be behind the high upper decks and luxury boxes.
          A couple of days ago, the weather for the game looked really crummy with heavy rains and gales!
          Now, for a Sachem victory over Littleton! Is that in the charts???

  14. Want a real wildcard for this winter forecast and beyond? As you may have heard, Mount Agung in Bali, Indonesia, is erupting. Very large volcanic eruptions can have an effect on global climate from a couple months up to a year or a little more after the eruption. The direct effect is a cooling of the global temperature via an increase in upper atmospheric aerosols, which block/reflect sunlight. The last major eruption of Mt. Agung in 1963 caused a ~0.2-0.4 degree Celsius drop in global average temperature for months following the eruption. This event isn’t on that scale yet, but it bears watching as this is clearly a significant eruption.

    Thanks to 2017 technology, you can actually watch the ongoing eruption live on YouTube… quite a sight!

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=islcMmfHHqE

    1. Truly Amazing. Thank you.

      Doesn’t appear to be too too bad at the moment, but one never knows.
      It “could” blow its top for all we know.

  15. Found this little tid bit while looking around twitter:

    NWS Boulder‏Verified account
    @NWSBoulder
    Follow Follow @NWSBoulder
    More
    Update 1: The temperature at Denver-DIA reached 81° at 12:56 pm. This establishes a record for this date exceeding 74° in 1950 & 1903. This also exceeds Denver’s old November record high of 80° set on the 8th of 2006 & the 16th of 2016. #COwx

  17. Good morning.
    Gfs and cmc do not offer much, But the euro sure looks interesting for 12/8.
    I am mobile, so it is difficult to post a map.

  18. Global models (00z / 06z) are very confused. They are having massive issues with timing and strength of many pieces of energy. This is leading to some interesting solutions. Experience shows that the best bet, from a forecasting standpoint, is to go with a modified form of persistence with a forecast recently derived with more stable support. We shall go this way today…

    Updating now.

    1. most interesting. thak you for your insight and guiding and educating us.
      This site must be one of the mostveducational sites around.

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