Friday Forecast

9:18AM

DAYS 1-5 (DECEMBER 22-26)
There have been no drastic changes in the forecast since the last blog post, so I will try to summarize that with any tweaks built in. Today, it’s basically about snow, steadiest this afternoon in NH and northern MA, though some will occur before that and already has, but little in the way of any steady precipitation to the south with just spotty light snow and even mixed with rain near the South Coast. The advertised warm front will struggle moving through as expected. You have to remember to think of something like a warm front not as a solid object, but a boundary between air masses, which are made of fluid. This warm air will move into areas with less resistance much more easily than others, and one of those areas it has great difficulty doing this is interior valley locations where dense cold air stays near the ground. This will be a classic case of that as it warms aloft and sets up a freezing rain situation. The good news is that some icing may be prevented due to a lull in the precipitation this evening just as it warms aloft to turn snow to rain. A second batch of steadier precipitation is expected to arrive in the pre-dawn hours of Saturday and continue through the morning to the middle of the day. This is when most of the icing will take place as by then it will be too warm aloft for any more snow anywhere. So during this it will become essential to watch the surface temperatures and the amount of rain. There may be some sleet involved closer to the time the first batch of snow moves out this evening and near the beginning of the steadier precipitation from batch number two, but the main issue will be the freezing rain, which will last longest over interior MA and southern NH. However enough cold air may drain southward through eastern MA and into northern RI, areas away from the immediate shore, for a period of freezing rain in many of these locations too. A piece of more positive news lies in the fact there is a good shot at another precipitation lull for a portion of Saturday afternoon, which would limit additional icing and reduce the risk of power outages from downed wires and trees/branches on wires. Of course throughout this watch for hazardous untreated surfaces as always! By Saturday night, it should have warmed up in all but deepest valleys enough for the final batch of precipitation to be in the form of plain rain and not last all that long. By the early hours of Sunday the entire mess is gone and Sunday itself will be a dry day. Temperatures should rise above freezing in most areas to be able to get rid of some of the ice build up, but it may not be enough to melt it all, so keep that in mind going forward as there is more cold and some snow in the forecast. Christmas Eve itself, from day to evening, will be dry. The next precipitation threat will come from a new area of low pressure passing to the southeast of New England late Sunday night and early Monday, but with a trough of low pressure extending from it back to a weaker storm coming out of the Great Lakes, enough cold air will be in place for a period of snow in most of the region with the exception of Cape Cod. We may have to watch a rain/snow line to see if it moves northwestward for a period of time, but I do think at this point that rain will be confined mainly to the Cape and that a couple to several inches of snow will occur elsewhere. I’ll put some numbers to this part of the forecast on the next blog post, leaving the numbers for today’s event (in the detailed forecast section below). Beyond the Christmas snow threat comes a shot of colder air Tuesday. Forecast details…
TODAY: Overcast. Periodic snow southern NH and northern MA becoming steadier midday-afternoon with a coating to 2 inches from near the Mass Pike northward for about 20 miles and 2-4 inches northern MA and southern NH. Spotty light snow to the south except snow or rain South Coast with no snow accumulation. Highs 22-38, coldest north central MA and southwestern NH, mildest southeastern MA and RI. Wind light NE.
TONIGHT: Overcast. Snow / sleet / freezing rain southern NH and northern MA with rain nearer the coast tapering off early with little additional accumulation, spotty light sleet / freezing rain / rain elsewhere. Temperatures nearly steady 22-29 north central MA and interior southern NH, 30-38 elsewhere. Wind light N to NW.
SATURDAY: Overcast. Freezing rain except rain immediate coast through southeastern MA and southern RI, steadiest morning and midday when some significant ice accretion is likely especially north central MA to southwestern and south central NH, then precipitation tapering off for a while in the afternoon. Temperatures rise very slowly to 27-34 interior, 34-40 coast. Coldest air remaining in deepest valleys. Wind light NW.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Overcast evening with one more period of rain which may still freeze in deepest valleys. Breaking clouds overnight. Temperatures rise slightly to 32-37 interior, 38-43 coast. Wind variable to SW 5-15 MPH, shifting to NW overnight.
SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 35-43. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY NIGHT – CHRISTMAS EVE: Clouding over. Snow likely around or after midnight except mix/rain Cape Cod. Lows 25-33. Wind light N.
MONDAY – CHRISTMAS DAY: Overcast morning with snow likely except mix/rain Cape Cod. Partial clearing afternoon. Temperatures steady 25-33. Wind N to NW 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY: Partly cloudy and windy. Lows in the 10s. Highs from the middle 20s to lower 30s.

DAYS 6-10 (DECEMBER 27-31)
The final 5 days of 2017 will be colder than normal and there is the threat of a storm around December 29-30 that will be watched.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 1-5)
The first 5 days of 2018 will likely be similar to the end of 2017 with another storm threat potentially looming.

388 replies on “Friday Forecast”

  1. Good morning and thank you for the detailed update TK.

    Looking forward to Christmas Day and the storm threat following in the 12/29-12/30
    time frame.

    1. The signals are significant for the late-week event at this point in time but you know how it goes – a full week away.

  2. The kid in me is excited about the threat for Christmas and beyond, but I need to focus on this event. The icing threat is the real deal. I’m just hoping the precipitation lulls are enough to limit problems related to trees / power lines.

    1. If Boston or Hull, Hingham and further down the south shore coast were to see a temp drop later today with a light northerly drain, do you have a timeframe in mind when that would happen?

      1. Most of that should take place after sunset and especially after 8PM. I think most of the region sees a light N to NW wind tonight and much of Saturday too.

        1. Thanks TK !

          I was thinking of doing some after school shopping and was debating doing that right after school or this evening. Sounds like after school is the way to go.

  3. FWIW on the 12z NAM …. the projected pressure for the Christmas Day event is lower today than it was yesterday. That’s one trend I believe has been true of all models. Its gone from being a wave to what looks like more of a deeper storm.

    1. How True. I believe TK mentioned in a response to a poster that
      if anything, the Christmas Event may over perform. That means to me
      that TK is tuned into the possibilities being discussed now. 😀

      1. …… I already told my girls, who have heard about snow on Christmas Day, that it might be raining in Marshfield when we wake up Christmas Day, but that we’ll get some snow later in the day in Marshfield.

        They are extra excited because cousins from NC will be here on the 26th and they want to take them sledding.

          1. Thanks sir !!

            Snow doesn’t worry me today or tonight down here, but a freeze that transforms wet roadways into icy roadways does.

  4. re: 12Z NAM for Christmas

    It now wants to deepen this system somewhat and throw some pretty
    heavy snow into Eastern sections. Yes, I am well aware that often
    the NAM over juices itself, but still there is that possibility. It not only
    brings the system closer to the coast, but it has a well developed trough back
    to the Great Lakes System, a double whammy.

    Then it virtually bombs it out in the Gulf of Maine, but catching Eastern MA
    during the process.

    Snow numbers should be significant.

    Here are the final Kuchera Snow Figures

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2017122212&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=084

    I wouldn’t let the coastal numbers which are lower fool you.
    That does not necessarily mean rain (although it does SE), it means
    a wetter lower ratio snow, which could actually make it worse.

    1. Is the timing still the same? Midnight through about noon on Xmas day? As much as I’m excited about the possibility of snow on Xmas day, the more the snow #’s go up, thevmore im worried about getting to where we need to go. A couple inches ending midday, no big deal. Winter storm criteria and beyond, no way we leave the house.

      1. Looking at the 6Z GFS and the 12Z NAM, I would say more like
        2AM Monday AM to 2PM Monday afternoon or something
        close to that. Time will tell.

      2. And that’s the thing if we get an all out storm on Xmas lots of Christmas will be on hold . Say for example it’s 4-6 or something like that . That will be a big impact

        1. I don’t see much of an impact with 4-6 except for those
          who have to perform various snow removal jobs.

          IF it gets to be 9-10 inches of heavy wet stuff, then I agree 100%.

  5. One thing to be aware of for the 12/30 through about 1/5/18 time-frame.

    The closest full moon of the entire year takes place on Jan 2nd, I believe, with extremely high astronomical tides during the late morning through early afternoon high tide.

    Any onshore flow during this period is going to be a problem for the coastline, here in New England or anywhere around the world.

    1. Well, regarding that, the 6Z GFS has progged this system at 957 MB in
      the Gulf Of Maine. Now that would be a whopper. Still a long way out
      there.

  6. OK, NOW we want to see IF the GFS and most especially the EURO are on board
    with increased snowfall for Christmas Day. AND of course while we are looking,
    we want to see how things have change this run for the 12/30 “possible” BIG KAHUNA!

  7. Thank you TK. I’m reading you most every day. Local TV is really beginning to annoy us with their Snow Monster vehicles and chief and co-chief meteorologists and new people on the air almost weekly. Hard to keep track of who is on the air anymore. Seems like one week they’re there and the next week they’re gone. You seem just as accurate for Northern Hartford County as they are.

  8. In the something to keep an eye on category with the storm threat late next week.
    Tweet from meteorologist John Homenuk
    What the overnight ECMWF EPS is suggesting should raise red flags throughout the Northeast. EPO ridging drives poleward and then into the AO and West-Based NAO regions. A big signal for significant winter storm potential if this evolution is correct.

  9. TK, Thank you. Exceptionally detailed discussion that will help folks make plans for their holiday celebrations. Thank you doubly!!!!

  10. windshield wiper effect Bernie Rayno talks about with models, wouldn’t be too concerned about it, but worth keeping an eye on

    1. Oh, I know for sure, but in the interest of full disclosure I post what
      I see. 😀

      Waiting on Euro and to a much lesser extent, the CMC and the UKMET.

  11. Don’t want the storm to get too amped up this bringing rain chances to the coast. Still think it’s all snow into Boston.

  12. GFS didn’t lose the storm as it does quite often for late week next week. Its just not a direct hit. Shift that west toward the benchmark with those pressures drops then look out.

    1. More M facacta rain! (Common Yiddish Terms Translated into English
      http://www.bnaimitzvahguide.com/common.yiddish.terms.php
      “pig stuff”)/unpalatable/rotten; chutzpah – audacity/utter nerve; drek – trash/manure or excrement; facacta – lousy, rediculous; famisht – confused; fardeiget – distressed/worried/anxiety; farklempt – in a bad mood/bummed out; Gai avek! – Go away! gedempte fleisch – a soft meat, usu. Brisket; gelt – money; gonnif – thief/crook ..)

      I am not Jewish, but I remember this word fondly from the days of
      Eddie Andelman being on the radio and it fits most appropriately.

  13. Let us not panic just yet on the Christmas storm as it is still 3 days away. IIRC this didn’t even exist (or just barely) on the models 3 days AGO.

    Remember what TK always says about models days in advance… 😉

    Even if rain verifies, wouldn’t there still be some decent backlash snow as it pulls away?

    1. yes. but boston points north probably.
      either way it seems like my area gets snow to cover up the bare spots and the old snow that still has not gone any where.

  14. I could be wrong but I believe Tk said rain will not be a factor for Monday’s storm just the cape . And whatever the models say it will keep changing

  15. I’m not home now, but from the looks of the radar, it looks like NE mass is getting into some of the action, it will be interesting to see what we end up with

  16. Thanks TK!

    Home in Wrentham. Was a little hairy driving south through NH earlier. One semester to go! Continuing to watch the interior icing threat for tomorrow. Mainly a cold rain for the most populated areas around the 95 corridor, but near and outside 495 continues to look like a significant ice threat.

    Christmas… recall a couple days ago I said I could see a scenario where the developing low hugs closer to the coast and introduces rain for eastern MA. That’s what a lot of the guidance is trending towards today… doesn’t mean it’s the final answer but it does agree with what my thinking has been. Rain is more likely than OTS, but snow is still a plausible scenario anywhere outside the Cape and Islands. We’ll know tomorrow afternoon.

    1. So there is at least a chance that Boston could see all rain Monday ??? You have not backed down from your forecast. I really enjoy your posts and you are usually spot on. I’ll be at work probably all night tonight. What is your thinking regarding tonight’s storm for Boston Longwood medical area. Is there a real ice concern here ??? Many thanks and again I love all of your comments.

      1. Boston may see some light snow or freezing rain for a few hours tonight, but much of the time after midnight will probably be dry as we get into a lull. They may start with a little more freezing rain tomorrow morning, but the city should go over to plain rain pretty quickly. All in all I’m not too worried for coastal areas tonight or tomorrow. More of an inland threat.

        Monday is too early to pin down. There is certainly a chance that the coast stays mainly rain, but we probably won’t know with much confidence until tomorrow.

    1. Thank you for the fast response I appreciate it being an essential snow personal. Merry Christmas !!

    2. I was just going to post that. Would a Putrid result that would be.
      How dare the Euro ruin our white Christmas. 😀 😀 😀

      I guess we’ll deal with whatever comes our way.

      I think the Euro is a tad too far West with the rain. I have a feeling,
      it is still mainly Snow in Boston, with rain/mix on the South shore.
      A few more days for all of this to be ironed out.

      FWIW, here is the PATHETIC EURO 24 hour snow map for 12/25:

      https://imgur.com/a/TSDnn

  17. No real cold source north of us. Need a better track then the EURO has, I also still believe we end to with snow vs. rain. A lot depends on where the front stalls offshore as well.

      1. Noooooo indeed …..

        Marshfield and Boston wont be under 7 feet of snow, but just might be under 7 ft of sea water with the astronomical tide due that day.

    1. It will fill in somewhat in northern MA but I was expecting the bulk of this to be north, not south.

      Also stated that if any event was going to under-perform, snow-wise, this would be the one. Still feel that way.

  18. Re: 12z global models.

    Trace the 500mb vorticity back to find out the area of energy for that storm was over data-starved Alaska and data-void Pacific waters to the south on this initialization. Where have we seen that before? Models should be colder looking again by the 00z runs.

    1. Now you’re cooking. I am liking your style. But, I’ll still look at this damn stuff. I am hooked like it was crack cocaine.

  19. re: 12Z EURO

    COWABUNGA!!!!
    Still mostly snow Boston N&W with a brief change or mix in Boston.

    Final snow map coming shortly

      1. Think if this tracks a bit farther East as we think it might??????

        a 3 foot snow storm in Boston??/ YIKES!!!

        Just the thought! Wow!

        Of course this is 8 days away and we know what can happen, but
        to see this gives one pause for concern. Will monitor closely

      2. Yikes….happy 9th birthday party to my second grand. Although she didn’t have her party until June last year due to weather and illness so she clearly has no problem with plan b….or c,d,e,f

    1. The cape was never in for snow on Monday just rain . Need to see how that line moves . I can tell you I’ve been freezing all day in the city and feels warmer now.not doing anything and the city is heavily salted

    1. Again Tk said go by Saturday’s models for Monday’s event not today’s . Of course I’m rooting for it but I know this isn’t the final outcome yet .

  20. Despite what some radar displays show, it is Snowing here in JP.
    A dusting is showing on everything. Still 29 here.

  21. I never said the Cape was in for only rain for Christmas as a definite. I said they are the most likely to see it. A shift far enough east and they are snow too.

      1. Not even that. It’s not a certainty yet. There is still a chance Cape Cod gets all snow out of it, or mix to snow.

      1. I love listen to Bernie’s discussions. His bloopers are the best though (along with Jim Kosek’s). 😀

  22. Snowing nicely here in JP. More intensity than I expected.
    Not moderate, but a nice accumulating light snow.

  23. As expected things filled in a bit during the afternoon. All is on track.

    I have some optimism about the icing situation too. Will detail this soon.

    12z model runs too warm for Monday. 18z NAM a bit too warm. These will adjust.

        1. Boston will end up above normal for December and certainly for the first 1/3 to 1/2 of winter.

  24. Nice light but crunchy snow sticking to all surfaces. Sutton started treating just before it began. Thank you to all who keep,our roads safe!!!

  25. I’m a little more comfortable with a 3+ inch snowfall Monday at least from Boston’s southern suburbs west and north. This does not leave areas to the southeast out completely. More to iron out obviously.

  26. NWS not including rain for Christmas at all except for SE Mass. It’s a wonder they haven’t gone along with the warmer solution as the tv mets have…pleasantly surprised.

    1. I’m not surprised they have not bitten one set of model runs. It shows itself over and over to be a terrible way to practice forecasting.

    1. Well maybe not the 40″ of snow in 24 hours the Euro is showing but a general 12-20″ across SNE. Trying to temper my excitement as this is still 7 days out….

  27. Thank you, TK.

    Strange day. Felt and looked like a snow day, but so far very little has fallen where I am. Also, the precipitation zone moved in from the north, almost as if retrograding (which we sometimes see in the spring).

    I hope we get some snow on Christmas Day. I’m certainly not in favor of a mix or rain. We’ll see.

  28. As I wrote yesterday.

    Cold South East is Christmas storm. Snow not rain. But less highs end snow.

    Not a chance that that late will verifies with 18z GFS

  29. I’m watching a hallmark movie. A comment in response to many not liking snow (and there is nothing wrong with either liking or not liking) was…

    “Snow makes me feel warm”

    How simple and how accurate.

  30. Many apologies for the above post! iPhone typos

    Christmas storm is cold fast south and east. Less as you go north and west. 18z gfs seems a bit fantastic late week.

    Quite pleased on how’s today’s daytime prognostication worked out.

  31. Made it back to Andover fro NY. Pike was fine, 495 got pretty hairy as we got into Merrimac Valley area, more than a coating up here, maybe an inch and half. Definitely not a good night to be out….

  32. Signs of low level cold air draining back to the south showing up in Connecticut. A few to several hours from now and that 36F at Logan should go, as well as other locations that are near or above freezing.

      1. Hardly, but it is certainly snowing and frankly, more than I expected. Still snowing pretty hard. I’d say vis about 3/4 mile. 😀

        According radar, mix line isn’t far South of me, so I don’t know
        how much longer it will last. Very pretty outside right now.

    1. From NWS at 7PM

      Later tonight, weak low pressure exiting Cape Cod Bay will cause
      winds to back to N across much of eastern MA. This will cause
      lower level cold air to drain back down along coast, including
      Boston area and probably as far south as Providence and Taunton
      as well overnight. This drop in temperature will produce light
      icing from freezing drizzle and/or black ice. High-res guidance
      shows this potential clearly and has been very consistent.

      1. I can attest to that. Freezing rain and drizzle here in Coventry CT with temps in the upper 20s. Cars are glazed over and driveways and sidewalks are a sheet of black ice. Main roads are salted and ok so far.

  33. Snow has lightened up considerably here. I almost that that it flipped. Nope just
    much lighter snow. It looks like it wants to flip. I suspect anytime now.

  34. Pete on NBC Boston is already using the word “blockbuster” for next weekend!

    Note to self: Restock bread & milk…and cinnamon? 😉

    1. What’s ol Pete saying about Monday . For what it’s worth wankum saying not a big storm and like a 4-2 type thing with fast clearing . If the crew can be home where we belong mid afternoon that would work . We all would gladly pass on the money ( and it’s a lot ) to be home with family.

  35. A friendly tip (and a pet peeve from the weather observer within me!)… if you think you’re observing rain in a situation like this, remember to check your temperature if you can. There is no “rain” at 32 or below; Freezing rain only at that point (though if we want to get really technical there are circumstances where that might not be true either). But for our purposes tonight/tomorrow, if you’re 32 or below, it’s freezing rain. Big distinction and critical for forecasters who receive such reports!

    We had some sleet here in Wrentham earlier which went over to a bit of light freezing rain. We’ll be getting into the lull in the next couple hours. But it’s slippery.
    Apparently all lanes of 495 southbound between exits 14 and 17 have been shut down to treat the icing with multiple cars off the road.

    1. I wondered about that. It is still in mid 20s here and I was about to ask why it seemed like rain at that temp

      Thank you for your tip. It makes far more sense to me

      1. Guess he’s going by that . I also mentioned above wankum is not looking for big results either and he had cleaning in afternoon

        1. Hopefully there’s more model concensus by tomorrow evenings runs but I get a lot of the tv Mets are under the gun to get a forecast out tonight as this might be the last time folks watch the news before xmas

  36. Part of 495 is shut down. Things are glazing up pretty good here in JP.
    Wankum is the biggest model hugger out there.

    1. Many of them are model huggers. That’s what I like about TK’s style.
      He uses the models as “Guidance” which is how they are intended to be used.
      NOT intended for rip and read and unfortunately, that happens often.

  37. From the NWS Zone Forecast for Boston issued at 7:15

    CHRISTMAS DAY…Snow. Snow may be heavy at times. Near steady
    temperature in the lower 30s. Chance of snow 80 percent.

    1. Whatever it is snow or both snow & rain it now doesn’t look like an all day event very fast from the Mets I saw tonight . I’m done watching . My main concern now is a call back in tonight.

      1. Yeah…probably won’t be too many more mets jumping on the low end bandwagon yet… As JPDave says…”We shall see”

  38. An early good morning or a very late good evening.

    Decent intensity FREEZING Drizzle going on here.
    30 was the highest it reached here in JP. Currently 28 with dp 25.

    Eric said 1-3 Christmas for boston. He seems to be buying the current runs. I am surprised.

    1. I am surprised he’s just buying them outright.

      As far as an impact / snow removal situation goes, it would actually be easier if that system was all snow. A rain-to-snow scenario is going to be worse because a shot of very cold air arrives by the storm’s end and any slush/wetter snow will freeze up.

        1. Fortunately, it is not a huge travel day like thanksgiving. My sister in law always worked Christmas Day to allow crew that had family to be home. She says it is the best day of the year to travel as it tends to be light.

  39. As was expected, the temp crashed at Boston. That is your meso low turning the wind N to NW. It should last several hours before it re-recovers.

    A few to several inches of snow for Monday, INCLUDING the city, even if it starts as rain there.

      1. Hesitant to put an exact # on it at this point, but I’m going to try in the morning.

        That cold air drain is pretty substantial right now.

        1. Its to early in my opinion for numbers . All the Mets have it as a very fast mover do you agree .

  40. Just took a look at all of the latest models. Without posting a bunch of maps, I would just say that ONLY the Euro and the km NAM have it ALL snow Boston N&W. Teh rest have various rain to snow scenarios.

    3km NAM has about 6 inches for boston 10:1, but only 3-4 Ferrier.
    Euro has 3.5 inches with my services proprietary snow algorithm that is similar to Kuchera.

    euro

    https://imgur.com/a/1dIZ5

    3km nam 10:1

    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam3km/2017122306/nam3km_asnow_neus_61.png

    3km nam ferrier

    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam3km/2017122306/nam3km_asnow_ferrier_neus_61.png

    I think the lower ferrier numbers indicate a lower ratio wetter snow.

    The Euro takes the big Kahuna for 12/29-12/30 off shore and tries to deliver
    Kahuna #2 a bit closer to the coast for some snow. Still early on those.

  41. Very slippery out there. 26 in Wrentham this morning with steady freezing rain on the doorstep. Even here it will take some time to get above freezing. There is going to be some significant icing further inland. Be safe!!

    0z-6z runs generally held serve for Sunday night-Monday. I like the consensus forecast right now. Mainly rain Southeast MA/RI. Mix I95 corridor, more rain closer to the coast. Several inches of snow inland especially near and outside 495.

    1. Do these maps mean it’s no longer a kahuna? What are you requisites to bestow the name kahuna? lmao. I need the jpdave naming convention chart. Here’s mine:

      1-3 inches: Dusting
      4-6 inches: Small Kerfuffle
      7-14 inches; The Big Mattress
      15-24 inches: Snowpocalypse
      25+ inches: Blizzard of Oz

      1. I haven’t though of it that way.
        Each storm is different and it depends upon the ratios.

        Although I like any snow event, even yesterday, I don’t start to get impressed until we pass the 1 foot mark.

        Kahuna is reserved for 2+ feet and I love the 2 footer plus storms, although we just don’t see enough of them.

        Snowpocalypse is reserved for 30+ inch storms and I have only witnessed 1 in my life, the blizzard of 78. yes Logan had only 27 inches, but out here in JP we got into that even heavier zone and we had 36 inches here.

  42. Walking into work this morning not nearly as bad as I feared. It was somewhat crunchy underfoot, not bad as long as you take your time. Very helpful that even side streets were treated. I am just speaking of my personal experience of my commute and not for others. There is a good amount of ice out there, even in Boston.

  43. Ice on surfaces here. No precipitating at the moment. 26

    Anyone know how main roads are? Son driving Milford NH to southern tip of RI this am. Thank you in advance.

    1. Main roads “should” be fine, however, for the secondary roads, it all depends
      on the individual dpw crews. If they treated them, they will be fine.

      My experience with ice is the above. It is the untreated walks and drives etc that present big problems. You may be fine driving but injure yourself in a fall trying to get to your vehicle.

  44. Current position of coastal front/retreated warm front is lying between the eastern Massachusetts coastline and Provincetown. It’s 45F with a light east wind out there, yet the Boston harbor buoy has a northerly surface wind.

  45. Latest HRRR indicates that boston (or at least the neighborhoods) won’t break freezing until about 6PM or thereabout.

  46. Coldest surface air in southern New England is in the eastern third of Massachusetts.

    Concerned looking at the radar to our west and southwest. Temp Reports of 24F and 25F … that’s an awful long way to get back to 32F.

    Hopefully not too much power and road safety impacts today.

  47. Awfully nasty outside and dangerous. Parts of 1-95 exit to 93 split are shut down.
    Xmas guidance starting to lock in on a rain to snow solution.

  48. Untreated sidewalks including my own not as bad as one would think, to my surprise. I have experienced far worse after a snowstorm that has been shoveled out but freezes up after some melting. I wonder if some sleet fell overnight as well that helped walking a bit?

    1. I didn’t see or here any sleet. It was freezing rain. the crunchiness was
      the rain frozen on top of the snow that fell.

  49. Tweet from NWS Skywarn

    This is an extremely dangerous icing situation for travel. Avoid travel this morning! #mawx

    1. It is, and that worries me. Especially as we continue to sit at 27 with freezing rain in Wrentham, an area which will not see the worst of the ice accumulation. This could be a long day.

      1. Cold air could be very stubborn at times and doesn’t want to leave and it looks like were seeing this here.

  50. You know what really amuses me?

    Not that long ago some mets were calling for temps near 60 today.
    TK never fell for that. He was the first to caution that it may not warm up
    today. NE weather, gotta love it.

    1. Thus, the Christmas Day event is far from set in stone. 🙂 🙂 🙂

      If that upper feature doesn’t time correctly, it might not get its act together until its just northeast of us and we’ll see fairly light precip amounts.

  51. This can be a case where it’s ‘colder’ (I know we are talking a degree or 2 here) at Logan vs JP.

    In these shallow cold air drains following a meso scale low, quite often, the source of the coldest air is the Maine and NH coastline. And thus, the coldest of the cold can hit Essex county and immediate coastal mass down to about Boston.

    1. I love that movie. My oldest grand did also. He took ballet in framingham and we have yet to find a place out here.

  52. Something to watch for Christmas. Tweet from meteorologist Ed Vallee
    The #Christmas snow is interesting to me. Likely a non event for SE New England, but impressive dynamics may lead to spotty #thundersnow during the morning across the interior where 4-8” is possible.

  53. Latest HRR run wants to keep the icing going in the Worcester and Boston areas until late this afternoon.

    1. If that were to occur in Boston, that would be unprecedented. I can’t imagine an all day icing event there. Ocean air can only be held off for so long.

  54. What bothers me is that forecasters who gleefully said only 4 or 5 days ago that it would be 56F and rainy on Saturday (today) do not even hint at having made a mistake in model interpretation. Mistakes are human, and models are ultimately based on a garbage in and garbage out principle. I’m fine with that. I’m not fine with lack of accountability.

    1. All the TV guys I know will off the record willingly admit to forecast error. Why do you never hear it? Other than sneaking in a subtle mention of it, they are forbidden from admitting mistakes on air by their bosses. Gee what a surprise.

    1. Dr. S…I may have asked you this before but what part of Hingham are you in? I’m near the intersection of Fort Hill and Newbridge. 28 here (according to the ob at Conservatory Park). Been steady at 28 for a while now.

  55. Be careful if any of you are going out. Very slippery down the I-95 corridor with a moderate freezing rain going on. Unfortunately my daughter is having her license test right now :).

      1. Thanks, I told her she should get it just for showing up. They usually would postpone until tomorrow but with a 100+ kids and it being Christmas Eve I guess they decided against it.

  56. The Christmas low track/intensity being modeled by most of the guidance favors more rain than snow in eastern MA.

  57. Technically, when the ‘cold’ front approaches much later today, it’s not inconceivable that the warmer surface air well to our west, plus the mixing down of the warm air aloft could cause Logan and other location to have a huge temp increase between late afternoon and midnight, with a misleading high temp of 45 to 50F for today.

    1. Perhaps, but right now HRRR is not advertising that.
      It keeps boston in upper 30s, but 40s to near 50 “Just” a tad South, so
      a slight error in the HRRR could easily bring those temps to Boston, even if
      briefly.

  58. JJ re: Thundersnow

    Look at this 3km NAM map. See the strip of reddish color across Western CT?
    That is NOT rain or Sleet, that is extremely heavy snow I do believe. Carefully look
    at the color keys to the right.

    I do believe it is there that you would experience your thundersnow.

    Tk Can let me know if I am full of shit.

  59. Thanks for the links JPDave.
    Close call for my area if we go over to a mix or stay all snow. It looks like if it goes to a mix for my area will have a turn back to snow before ending.

  60. From a PVD-Taunton line southward, a quick spike into the upper 40s or 50s remains possible if not likely this evening. Not inland though. Definitely not the all day warm rain which looked possible several days ago. Instead, we’re getting the first of what may be a few significant icing events this season.

  61. Thanks for your answer, TK. I appreciate your honesty. I also hear what you’re saying – that TV mets (the ones I’ve met are really great men and women) will admit in private that their forecasts were wrong. The TV bosses often live in a fantasy land in which everything is perfect or should be. Of course, reality is never perfect, and the imperfections make life interesting. It would be boring if everything worked out perfectly.

    1. I talk to a lot of people and see a lot of forecasts, professional and non. Virtually every professional forecaster I know willingly admits forecast error. The ones that don’t are the fakers, and there are many out there. They constantly spin it to make it look like they called it all along. Unfortunately the day is going to come when someone is injured or killed making a decision off a forecast made by an untrained “forecaster” playing on Facebook.

  62. Timing is everything. A lot of really cold air is on the way, but the strong Arctic High comes in too late to `push’ the low east and southward. Correct me if I’m wrong, but I don’t see a high pressure area to our north on Christmas Eve and early Christmas Day. The low will therefore hug the coast. I do see a strong Arctic High to our northwest and coming into NNE on the heels of the Christmas storm. Too late, I believe, for much snow in SNE. Oh well.

    1. Irony: The freezing line in eastern MA and RI depicted on that map will also likely be the rain/snow line at the start of the Christmas morning event.

  63. I have a question about freezing rain. I understand that it is rain that freezes on contact with something really cold, and starts to form a layer of ice. So my question is, how does freezing rain turn to plain rain? Why does it stop freezing? I’ve just been sitting here wondering about that and I figured that maybe one of you guys knew.

    1. The temperature of the surface it lands on must rise above freezing. Also once the air is above freezing, it it’s falling onto existing ice, that ice surface will sit near or just over freezing itself and the freezing process will stop.

    1. We will. She thinks she is heading right out when she gets it, I said no so fast :). She had all these plans for today! We went on 95 from exit 5 to 7. Wasn’t too bad but the onramp at exit 7 was closed but that was an hour ago. Test is in Mansfield and then have to drive back to North Attleboro.

  64. Freezing rain is there is a warm layer at cloud level and it starts out as a regular rain drop. When it enters an environment where the temp is 32 or less that rain drop then freezes on contact. For it to turn regular plain rain need the temperature at the surface to get above 32 so that way the entire column of the atmosphere is warm.

  65. Huge mess around here. My town’s DPW had their collective heads in their hind ends. No salt trucks were out AT ALL last night or early this morning. The whole town is one big mess. I couldn’t get out down my street if I needed too. Still havent seen a grain of salt yet and it 10:15. This was a well forecast event. Zero excuse.

    1. We have had regular passes even on our little side street at the edge of town and roads are still a mess. I don’t think it is possible to keep up with it. Wires are going to get heavy. Trees also of course.

        1. Sutton started well before precip began yesterday. They have been consistently by here. I have no plans to head out but if they are In this neighborhood, I’d bet they are even more present on the more travelled streets.

          I seem to recall you have said northbridge has had problems in the past.

          I also seem to recall my son in law saying some of the neighboring towns struggle so I did understand your concern.

  66. Daughter number two who has her moms temperament just said it is cold out so why is it freezing rain. I said simply warmer air above

    Her response…..and she sure didn’t learn her language from her dad….”This whole warmer air above crap needs to stop”

  67. An oil delivery truck just went flying down our street which is a gradual hill with a curve at the end and then dead ends into a body of water. It is other people I worry about more than myself. You cannot fix stupid

  68. Driving along Lynn Shore Drive just now and saw a guy in a drysuit preparing his surfboard. Good waves out there… Make hay while the sun shines?

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