Saturday Forecast

164 Comments

9:39AM

DAYS 1-5 (DECEMBER 30-JANUARY 3)
Very short summary, no changes being made. Weak wave of low pressure passes south of the region and tries to throw some snow back into the region as it starts to strengthen through this evening before moving away. It does serve to reinforce the arctic air for the final day of 2017 and first day of 2018. High pressure will dominate Tuesday and Wednesday with more dry and cold weather.
TODAY: Mostly cloudy. A period of snow possible mainly from the Boston area to Worcester area southward. Expected snow accumulations from a coating to 1 inch Boston area to Worcester area to the Plymouth MA and Providence RI areas (coatings favored), 1-3 inches closer to the South Coast and 3-6 inches on the islands and outer Cape Cod. Highs 15-22. Wind N to NE 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Clearing. Lows -5 to 0 interior, 0-5 coast. Wind N to NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts. Wind chill near to below -10 at times.
SUNDAY – NEW YEAR’S EVE: Sunny day. Clear evening. Daytime highs 8-13 except 13-18 Cape Cod. Evening temperatures fall toward 0 interior and 10 or a little below Boston and coast. Wind N to NW 15-25 MPH, higher gusts. Wind chill will below 0 at times.
MONDAY – NEW YEAR’S DAY: Increasing clouds. Lows -8 to +3. Highs 10-20.
TUESDAY: Clearing. Lows -5 to +5. Highs 10-20.
WEDNESDAY: Sunny. Lows 0-10. Highs 15-25.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 4-8)
3 potential snow threats, January 4, 6, and 8. Favoring the middle one at this point for the largest impact (don’t read this as a major storm forecast at this point). Temperatures below to much below normal.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 9-13)
Temperatures continue below normal. Next storm threat comes late in the period.

164 thoughts on “Saturday Forecast”

    1. HAHAHAHAHAHA!

      No problem. I figure 2 to 4 feet but you know I’m conservative with my snow amounts so be ready for maybe 4 to 6 feet instead. 😛

  4. Thank you as always, TK!

    Today (December 30)
    is the 100th anniversary of the all-time record low maximum temperature
    for Boston, Hartford, Blue Hill (Milton) and Taunton.

    The high temperatures were just:
    2º in Boston
    -1º in Hartford
    -3º on Blue Hill
    3º in Taunton (Harris St. pumping station)

    all on December 30, 1917.

    No, I was not there.

  5. I’m getting the distinctive feeling that the most substantial widespread snow event of the winter is going to come right before the pattern flips. Just a hunch. We’ll need Gulf and/or Pacific moisture for it. Atlantic moisture is doable but very hard to grab and throw back in this pattern when we have mainly “clippers” and “screamers” for snow threats.

      2. Well, the cloudiness today might help do the trick, which would be full day #3. Then Sunday thru Wednesday would be 4 more, so
        Perhaps a tie.

  9. Thank you, TK. I agree with Tom. Snow sky. Looks like a thin layer of ice with a bright orb occasionally trying to peek through at the sky’s peak which piques my interest.

    Sorry….quiet morning and you can see my amusement threshold is low.

    1. Anyone who doesn’t will have to walk over a couple feet of shore ice, near that high tide line, to get to water. Brrrrrrr !!

    2. I heard some others ppd as well. However the L St. Brownies in Southie are scheduled as usual. They don’t postpone for ANY kind of weather conditions.

      1. Risky but they have the choice to participate which is good and they are experienced, hardy Bostol folks.

        My niece did Humarock seven years ago and my son did it maybe 10. Water was mid 40s for niece and air temp was 50s…no Idea for son but know it was not close to this. Both are in excellent shape. Both said it literally takes your breath away.

        Tom, did one of your girls do this last year or did I make that up in my head?

    1. I’m surprised it’s making it to the ground so quickly with all the dry air around. Happening everywhere with so many Obs reporting light snow.

  13. Gfs projecting some kind of convergence zone of snow from well offshore storm and weakening Great Lakes system ?? Band of snow, oriented from NE to SW across interior New England.

  14. Very nice winter scene where I am with the light snow falling for about three hours now. Coating of snow so far but if you got to run errands you could do so.

  16. its been a continious light flurry in my area the past 3 hours.If the air was not so dry I think I would be getting more.

  22. Howdy y’all. I’m on my WBZ alterego for a bit until my techie can do a reset on the server. But the 2 of them are currently out picking up the last ingredients for a homemade Mexican food Christmas celebration this evening.

    Mexican today. Chinese tomorrow (take-out though). 😉

  26. Thank you, TK.

    Gentle and kind light snow falling in downtown Boston. I wasn’t cold on this morning’s run. My body quickly adapts, I guess. I took off my gloves at around the 3 mile mark and unzipped my running jacket partway. I was disappointed as the `real’ cold has abated for the moment. The `real’ cold presents a challenge that is well worth it. The post-run feeling after an early morning single digit weather jog is unique and good. The first mile is tough, but after that you get a real rush. 95F and humid presents its own set of interesting challenges. However, it’s harder for a runner to adapt to 95F than 5F. The ideal temperature is 50F in my opinion as there’s nothing for the body to `overcome’ in terms of lack of hydration or adjustment to temperature.

    The Charles is completely frozen. I often wonder where the ducks and geese go. It can’t be easy for them to `camp’ out in these conditions. I know that their bodies are designed to readily adapt, but I still think the majority of them are cursing the cold and dreaming of spring.

    1. That’s the thing with the animals. They don’t complain. They just deal and adapt. I think the human population would serve themselves well to adopt this practice.

      1. So true. Complaining is what humans do, coping is what animals do. Well, except for my domesticated cat. She complains a lot.

        1. Maybe this is the answer. Wild animals adapt but domesticated (cats, dogs, etc.). Maybe due to hanging around us humans or evolution perhaps?

          As an example, we have all seen a dog shiver but have you ever seen a wolf or a fox shiver from the cold? 😉

    2. Two things:

      I’m not getting sucked into a storm for next week. Cold and dry is the trend and I’m sticking with it until there appears to be a real pattern change coming.

      And….

      Watch for too strong a system even if it did happen. Ocean still warm.

  31. While we experience a prolonged cold spell, the low countries are in a prolonged mild spell. The prevailing southwesterly does its thing: Mild, windy, and light rain showers every day. Until that pattern changes, which it is not expected to for a while according to the Dutch meteorological institute website, don’t look for much to change on this side of the Atlantic (you all know by now my `theory’ on the inverse relationship that tends to exist between weather in the Netherlands and northwestern Europe generally and the Northeastern U.S.).

  32. Thanks TK. Light snow in Wrentham as well. All going about as expected with this, though I was a little surprised with how early the flakes were flying.

    Next week… deterministic details, especially precip related maps, mean very little at this point. It’s certainly worth noting that the models are showing an anomalously high intensity ceiling with this potential storm Thursday. But it’s several days away and a very complicated synoptic pattern. We will see large swings in the guidance continue.

    1. They were in earlier than I thought as well. We have a solid dusty coating in Woburn now. The flakes are SO tiny.

  34. Waiting to see what the EURO says. Still not sold on a snow event late next week as its still early in the game and the models could swing back the other way.

  35. This is what WHW says at the moment: Same thing as I said above in the forecast. 🙂 Nothing new to add after viewing the 12z suite.

  36. 12z Euro maintains the theme of a storm track fairly far offshore but with a more significant impact in SNE. Delivers a good 6-12” across eastern MA and R.I. 3-6” across eastern CT and central MA and 1-3” west of I-91

  37. There is time for that 6-12 to move further west into SNE or the storm could shift further east with little or no impact.

  38. 12z Euro has the storm bombing down into the upper 940mb’s by the time it hits Nova Scotia! Wow.

    Projected high temp of +1 and low of -10 in downtown Boston the day after the storm passes, not including wind chill.

  39. Tweet from weatheroptics
    12z ECMWF running, but can already tell there are improvements at 500 mb that would support a storm further west. Energy interacting much earlier. Good sign if you’re looking for a snowstorm.

      1. Howevef, if and I do say if the big ones pans out, wrll it scares me especially with yhe cold in its wake.

    2. And this again assumes this is a good run. With back and forth going on, if anyone can pick out a good run they are probably randomly guessing.

  42. BEWARE: I’m in snark mode. I am trying to convince people elsewhere on the net that it cannot be “too cold to snow”. That has to be one of the stupidest misconceptions in the history of weather observation. And some people just cannot accept that it’s false.

  43. WHW is back.

    This is why even a “non-event” is not a non-event when it’s this cold. This picture was taken on the Mass Pike in Charlton MA a short time ago. The roads are not stellar for driving out there right now, and treatment was not done because well, they pay attention too much to accumulation forecasts instead of actual hourly weather conditions.

    https://scontent.fbed1-2.fna.fbcdn.net/v/t31.0-8/26170405_10213557652483009_5491298263939361861_o.jpg?oh=f3bad171be4c228645733b8ac955db36&oe=5ABFC98E

      1. Welcome to the world of paying attention to the cheap and easy weather – weather apps – to get your non-value-added information. I wonder where it ends? Oh, it ends when someone gets killed because of inaction in dangerous conditions. It should never get that far.

        1. The traffic is heavy. Could it be the equipment treating is hampered by that? Pike crews were always on top of things. However, it has been a while since I’ve used the pike so not sure if things have changed.

          1. From a couple accounts I have heard, it has suffered a little bit this season. Staffing issue perhaps? Traffic is heavy and that will have some impact, but I think the road should have been pre-treated. It was very likely to snow lightly for a few hours there and with temperatures in the lower teens, that is going to stick instantly, even if it’s light.

            1. Possibly. I know there have been a lot of agencies affected by cuts in the state. This is the first time Sutton has not pretreated. As you know, I believe Sutton is exceptional. I would give them the benefit of the doubt suspecting they know something I do not. As far as the pike….I have no way of comparing. Perhaps, one of the folks who is in the business could weigh in.

    2. I just saw that on FB. That is west of here but not far enough for me to think there would be that big a difference. I was surprised at the amount of snow slush on the road. We are just starting to see more than a dusting here.

  44. Just drive from NYC Home to Natick—took 5.5 hours! The Merrit Parkway was a mess as was 84 and the Pike until just east of Charlton. Not a lot of snow—but clearly roads were not well treated.

    1. Interesting. I wonder how budget plays into this. Although, as I said, I have no idea about the track record.

      How long does it take you on a good day? 4?

      1. On a weekend morning, usually about 3.5 hours. Not that I do it often but I go see Phish at Madison Square Garden every December for at least 1 night and have done that drive
        Home at least 10 times since 1997…

        1. Nice, Dave. So it was considerably longer today. Glad you are safely home and think your stay sounds awesome. We used to take Merritt to garden state and then NJ turnpike when heading to charleston. I detest Garden state but Merritt is not a bad drive at all.

  46. Re the roads:
    I’m not sure it has much to do with budget as it does with expectations. A light snow with very little accumulation was forecast if I’m not mistaken. DPW’s look at that and think they don’t need to do much. So in that sense I guess it has a little to do with money in that why waste money on such a little event. Normally they’ed probably be right. The roads would not be as cold and the traffic would keep the light accumulation beat down. But, as cold as it’s been, like TK said, what does fall will stick instantly and won’t get knocked down by traffic like it normally would.
    As far as the pike goes, I’ve found it to be quite good during and after the snow falls we’ve had this month, and I drive it every day except Sundays and the occasional Saturdays. I think this one caught the DPWs and the state a little off guard.

    1. You may be correct. I mentioned to my daughter that I was surprised Sutton didn’t pretreat. She said they had throughout the main part of town. I clearly should not judge by my little street alone and apologize to anyone from Sutton for my error. My guess is that this time little off streets simply do not need it which makes sense to me.

  48. Still snowing lightly in Coventry CT. We have about an inch of fluff on the ground. Roads not great here either.

  49. question all, parents told me that for a graduation present and 25 birthday, that they will help pay for my first car. If anyone has any suggestions for me that has good safety record, has good control in winter weather and has ok room in the back seat and ok trunk space and any suggestions or thoughts on different cars, let me know, first car. Probably get it sometime within the next year, in the mean time I am driving my parents car and a Town and country.

    1. I am driving a 2014 Honda CR-V, all wheel drive, and I absolutely love it. It doesn’t have a trunk in the conventional sense as it is more like a hybrid car / mini van, but it has plenty of space behind the back seat for storage.

      For the record, my mechanic said Honda & Toyota are the best 2 choices, Hyundai is a decent choice, and to stay away from most GM cars as well as Mazda. Anything else is so-so.

      1. I think it was crv son wanted mac and me to get for car we bought in June 2 years ago. We were looking for something taller to make it easier for Mac.

        1. The Toyota is very comparable. My friend has a Camry that has been going forever and is nearing 300,000 miles.

    2. Camry hands down. Or any Toyota. Between Mac and me we have had toyotas since 1970s. Macs parents drove them in Europe, had their last one shipped here, drove it across country multiple times and have to kim. I will probably jinx the one I have but not once were they in for anything but routine work. And we keep them for years and lots of miles

    4. That is a wonderful well earned reward.
      Is there a price range? Buying brand new?
      A few that I would consider that fit your criteria pretty well:
      Subaru Impreza, Legacy or Outback
      Ford Fusion or
      Mazda Cx-3
      Jeep Renegade

  50. Trying to get rid of tickets to tomorrow’s game 0 interest from anybody . I’m fighting a terrible cold and really don’t think it’s in my best interest to go and possibly get sicker . Getting coated here but hardly snowing .

    2. Smart man but that is a shame. Five grands and one parent have had it. One grand diagnosed with pneumonia today. Dr said this virus has a way of finding a place in a person’s body and settling in so rest is important. Take care

      1. That’s the thing I have no sick time but I’m off till Wednesday . I fear if I get up tomorrow feel better and sit there for hours in the cold if I could get worse . So torn here

  52. Anyone in the Roslindale, Dedham, Westroxbury area that can give a nowcasting report?
    My onsite resource for weather conditions is not reachable and I am wondering if I should sending crews up to Salt/Icemelt our Roslindale properties.

    Currently in Middleboro and it has been a steady light snow shower for several hours. About a 1/4″ accumulated on untreated surfaces.

    1. I’m in JP nearby. Been snowing very lightly since about 11 AM.

      Everything is coated, but not 1/4 inch , perhaps 1/16 or 1/8 at best. It’s coated, but not much.

  53. Interesting to note that several runs of the NAM forecast no snow for my area at all today. Verification: it’s been snowing for 5 1/2 hours and counting…

      1. This is why I always say the “latest” runs of the model are not always the correct ones. This goes for short range as well as medium range guidance.

        We’re not done seeing corrections for the Thursday threat either, and the Saturday one (which doesn’t even appear on runs right now).

    1. It may not look like it, but the run-to-run changes are pretty remarkable right now. They don’t have this resolved by a long shot.

  56. It’s taken me 6 hours to accumulate 0.1 inch of snow. That is what you call very light snow. 🙂

    1. Take a look at the 500mb loop on the 18z GFS and note the hang-back of the trough axis behind the January 4 system. That’s important for future runs. Tell-tale sign this thing has a lot of adjusting left to do. This will be true of all models over the next few days.

      1. I do see that. I even looked to see if it would sprout a surface reflection. Not on that last run anyway.

        So, what does this mean? Additional storminess?
        A mega trough keeping precipitation going on?
        OR rather, there would be some sort of merging going on?
        OR the model out right has it wrong?

        Very interesting to be sure.

        Many thanks

  59. A small scale low pressure area exists near Block Island and this feature may enhance the snow to give a few more inches to Nantucket this evening.

        2. According to Ch. 7, Logan officially received a trace…clearly an overachievement all around SNE away from the Sourh Coast/Cape.

          Also Ch. 7 mentioned another record low/high one day next week. I forget which day it is.

          These minimum maximums are becoming a broken record. 😉

  60. SSK – Enjoy the game from your living room couch! Even if you weren’t sick it is going to be brutally cold anyway. Next year go to a game in September-early October when temps not likely to be an issue. We probably have the best weather conditions in the NFL during fall. 😀

    I also have a cold as well but I have to go to work tomorrow anyway. I caught it on my day off on Christmas shoveling. Glad I was able to get it off my sidewalk before the deep freeze. 🙂

    1. Thanks yes Im out even if feeling better tomorrow because I know I’ll just get sicker. Feel better . I also got it doing snow removal Xmas day .

      1. I tried to find somebody to take my son or buy the tickets . I can’t even give them away I’m out $270

  61. Is there a record for how little snow one place receives after at least seven hours of snow because I think we set it 😉

  62. Very eager to see some future runs starting especially on Monday. If you look at NAM this far out it looks like it will develop an explosive system but of course doesn’t mean anything yet.

  63. 0Z GFS even Farther off shore with very little impact other than a few inches along
    the coast.

    CMC, on the other hand gives us a pretty decent hit with about 8 inches 10:1, which would probably end up being more like 10-12 with the ratio. I do not think ratio
    will be 20:1, but could be 12:1 to perhaps as high as 15:1, But I’d say 15:1 is a stretch.

    Now we wait on the Euro and I am not waiting up for it. 😀

    1. I can see a faster and more progressive solution with the wave the models want to blow up for the 4th leaving room for a deeper system 2 days later. Timing, critical little timing issues make all the difference in the world with these computer forecasts.

  65. Thanks for the info everyone, so much to read up on and several decisions but thats why I am starting to research now 🙂
    I have heard Toyota and Honda are good

  66. Pretty good hit on the 0z Euro…. a good 10-15” regionwide but the surface low pressure is still well offshore.

  67. 0.1″ snow at Logan yesterday

    Snowfall to date = 9.2″
    December snowfall = 9.2″
    Departure from normal = +0.2″

  68. According to Barry several inches of snow with mix/rain issues at some coastal areas and very windy for Thursday followed by more brutal cold Friday and beyond.

    Also, Barry doesn’t see any above freezing temps until Jan. 7th..or is it 8th?

    TK – For Thursday, will high tides be an issue as well? Not sure if Barry mentioned that with the full moon et all.

  69. To Follow-up on Mark’s post, here is the Euro Snow map. These totals come
    from my Service’s Private Algorithm. I make no claims to its accuracy. And of course this “Potential” event is 4 1/2 days out from this run so it will change:

    https://imgur.com/a/do8Vu

  71. Tides would be an issue for north-facing shores if the storm occurred as depicted currently.

    At the moment, the Euro and I differ by about 20 inches on snow for much of the region. 😉

    We’ll see what happens with that difference.

    I am playing an offshore scenario right now. I CANNOT STRESS ENOUGH that this is NOT a final call, yet I fear that as happens in many places there are folks that will mistake a first or current call as a final call. The pieces for the potential storm are thousands of miles apart. I have my doubts that the event happens exactly as shown on any particular model (you pick one). Will work this out in the next few days.

    In the mean time, new post!

  72. One of the reason I post less is because I too often agree verbatim with TK and I certainly don’t want to seem like I am ganging up on opposing perspectives or discounting the weather enthusiast.

    However, I have heard and read way too much about this potential historic west coast storm. What historic if you go back in history to January 1 2018?

    Seems like Barry just went all verbatim on 00z ECMWF.

    That model run seems to ignore the northern stream shortwave altogether and just creates some slow moving, but rapidly intensifying southern stream storm and then keeps the precip going with a bizzare reflective trough 400 miles south of the storm center in Canadian maritimes.

    Colder, faster, with what precip that does fall being in the form of snow with limited mix issues would be an outlook I would be comfortable with.

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