Thunderstorms, A Nice Day, then a Hurricane. I love New England.

97 Comments

3:47PM

Short discussion now, longer one later.

Cold front moving into New England now, bumping into muggy air in place. This will set off showers and thunderstorms into tonight, a few of which may be strong to severe, so keep an eye out!

High pressure brings nicer weather Friday. Still looking for clouds and eventually showers on Saturday in advance of Irene as the old frontal boundary drifts back over the region. Regarding Irene, please check the latest advisories from the National Weather Service and read the comments section below as many of the readers provide great links, ideas, and commentary on what is going on. I am not going to drastically change my forecast track on it, however I am shifting it back west a bit, keeping the center a little closer to the Mid Atlantic Coast, and thinking it may cross Long Island’s western half before heading through CT and western or central MA. I am not convinced we don’t see a slight adjustment eastward by the models, as they adjusted westward during the past 24 hours – reminds me of winter storm model forecasts…ugh. So for now I buy a little of the westward shift, but not fully. (For my model-viewing readers, my track is similar to the 12z NAM at the moment.)

Boston Area Forecast…

REMAINDER OF AFTERNOON: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers and thunderstorms. Any storms may be strong with a slight risk of a severe storm. Muggy. Temperature near 80 but cooling through the 70s during any showers and storms. Wind S to SW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Showers and storms remain possible until 11PM then breaking clouds but patchy fog. Still muggy. Low 63-68. Wind shifting to W 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly to mostly sunny. Humid. High 82-87. Wind W 5-15 MPH shifting to S.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers, some of which may be heavy especially at night. Low 66. High 80.

SUNDAY: Cloudy. Showery rains, heavy at times. Chance of thunder. Increasing wind, possibly damaging wind late day into nighttime hours, depending on exact path of Irene. Low 66. High 76.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny and windy. Low 61. High 82.

TUESDAY: Sunny. Low 58. High 79.

WEDNESDAY: Sunny. Low 58. High 79.

97 thoughts on “Thunderstorms, A Nice Day, then a Hurricane. I love New England.”

  3. Thanks Old Salty. I did reverse my direction. I should have said to the east the strongest winds and the possiblity of weak isolated tornadoes. To the east the flooding rains.

  4. 18Z NAM is looking more like a hit to Mid Long Island then Central CT.

    Should be completed soon.

  6. That is not a good thing since it will be remaining over the water instead of interacting with land which would weaken it some if that model ends of up being right.

  7. The eye has cleared the last Bahama Island and the cloud tops are cooling around the center. Lets see if an eye reappears in the next few to several hours and if there’s a pressure drop.

  9. An the Winner is? NOT I!!!! LOL

    18Z Nam takes in on shore over West Central LI and West Central CT.
    Not sure if it is a tad East of the 12Z run or not. Really close to it and NOT West of it.

    http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?prevPage=Model&MainPage=index&image=&page=Param&cycle=08%2F25%2F2011+18UTC&rname=SFC-LAYER+PARMS&pname=850_temp_mslp_precip&pdesc=&model=NAM&area=NAMER&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&fcast=084&areaDesc=North+America+-+US+Canada+and+northern+Mexico&prevArea=NAMER&currKey=model&returnToModel=&imageSize=L

  10. 5PM Info:

    SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT…2100 UTC…INFORMATION
    ———————————————-
    LOCATION…27.0N 77.3W
    ABOUT 575 MI…930 KM S OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…115 MPH…185 KM/H
    PRESENT MOVEMENT…NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 14 MPH…22 KM/H
    MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…950 MB…28.05 INCHES

    Pressure has come down a bit. Perhaps first sign of intensification?
    We shall see.

    It now is in open water, not to be impeded by stinken Islands! Let’s see what you have Irene!

  11. Oh btw, NHC track still looks the same to me. Perhaps they haven’t changed it.
    Or perhaps they felt it is on “track”

    I dunno

  13. National hurricane center track has it coming through west conn basically over Springfield and the only change is while in mass it ever so slightly nudges NE and travels up through nh

      1. Vicki- I came home from work tonight and my wife had all the hanging plants down, even being on my covered porch they are still blowing over. Really windy here. Its been dark here since I got home at 5 but no rain.

        1. Hi John. We had some dark clouds and mist go by about 45 minutes ago but not enough to chase us off the deck. Wind didn’t die down though

  15. Just saw Todd Gutner. He says that at this point Irene could come up over Western MA as a Cat 1 and be decaying. If that scenerio takes place, would there still be a risk of tornadoes in Central/East. MA?

    1. Hi Rainshine.

      I dont know, but, I would think the dewpoints are going to be 70 to 75 and if there are breaks of sun in Eastern Mass, it would be interesting to see if bands of convection developed. That could transport some of the higher winds aloft down to the surface.

      1. Thanks, Tom. As Todd said, nothing is definite yet – but if that scenerio happened it might be the best one for EMA. We shall see – and we will all know the outcome on Mon.! 🙂

        1. I meant to say if Irene came up over WMA it might be a good scenerio – not a scenerio w/tornadoes!

          1. A good scenerio for EMA, that is – gee, what’s wrong w/me today! Guess I’m kind of excited w/all this weather happening. I don’t want anything bad to happen – it’s just all kind of exciting.

          2. Hahaha Rainshine. I was doing that last night and I understood what you meant the first time I am liking west scenario.

        2. I am excited too ! I’ve been hurricane watching 24/7 for a couple days now. Thank goodness for my understanding wife. I’m going to be so tired by Sunday, I’m going to end up sleeping thru the storm. 🙂

  17. Hi Rainshine- It is so exciting. I do in a way hope this pans out to some degree. I don’t want anything to happen either, but a miss would bum me out. I guess the reason why I love this site is because if I may I think we all get excited when a storm could strike, whatever that storm may be. I remember as a little kid getting all excited with the threat of a big storm, to this day I still get excited. Again I do not want damage or people getting hurt but I would like to see some action. I think you all know what I am trying to say. Well I guess we wait and see. Looking forward to hearing your thoughts on this storm. And thank you to everybody who chimes in here, you teach me so much.

  18. I technically didn’t need D batteries, but I thought I would get a few more just in case and this morning I went into CVS and there were no more D batteries but there were plenty of all other sizes (C, AA, AAA, 9V, etc.). I was able to get my D’s at the next CVS and I bought out the remaining 6 (3 packages of two each) they had. I guess all flashlights made these days take D batteries only.

    1. I’m a candle person. I am forever turning out lights and lighting candles. I think I could power our neighborhood of course I also think losing power is the best thing

      1. Vicki, be VERY careful with those candles…it doesn’t take much to start a fire. Use flashlights should your power go out Sunday!

        1. Philip i turn off light most every night and sit on the porch in the summer or by the fire in winter with candles. You are so kind to worry. My kids will tell you I’m a fanatic when it comes to safety.

      2. Vicki – I, too like candles. On occasion, I might light them – especially around the holidays – but I don’t keep them on long and I watch them carefully – especially w/our cat! However, during storms, I use flashlights. So, please be careful if you use them – and like Philip says – use flashlights if your lights go out.

  19. Will the cold front passing through tonight have any effect on the track of Irene, even slightly? If not, isn’t there a trough of some sort approaching from the west some time on Sunday to possibly “interact” with Irene?

    1. This will be something to keep an eye on it because you usually when the pressure drops the winds start to increase.

  23. The eye is reapparing as some have noted. Irene is a big storm no doubt about that.
    I know someone asked about tornadoes. Isolated tornadoes are possible with landfalling tropical systems. The are weak and happen on the right side along with the strong damaging wind gusts. Hurricane Watches now up to include parts of New Jersey.

  24. I hope I did not offend anybody by saying that I was excited to and was hoping this did not dud out.

    2. John I think we are all excited. I font want to cut into vacation but part of me isnt sure what I want. I most of all don’t want people hurt but it’s the excitement about weather events that I think has every one of us here

      2. Thank’s guys- I put my wrong email in by accident when writing my post, I am guessing that is why It was removed. Vicki I am waiting to hear from Tk on if he think’s this is following the path of Gloria. If so I think you should leave. Monday is going to be warm and sunny. My house will have candles to, we always burn. We have some very nice partylite sets. Nothing like the ocean mist scent.

        1. We will definitely head out if it’s like Gloria. Thank you John. I’m now worrying we won’t be able to get back in here for next week if the damage is bad. I know the sand can literally wash onto the road. I sure appreciate everyone’s advice.

          1. It sure can. My friend has a house right on the water in the sanhills section of Scituate. I don’t remember the exact storm last winter, it was the one when the houses caught fire. There was so much sand on the road, and they had been removing it all week. Cars were under water. This is the reason why his house is up for sale.

  26. I just read the blog that Barry posted. So he feels right now that this could take the path of Gloria. For the folks down my way who were not here for Gloria, Gloria did more than Bob did. Many power outges, trees down and the Marshfield school system was closed for a week. My head is spinning from this yo yo back and forth. I am just going to put everything away tomorrow night just incase. We were told at work today that we are on call for Sunday. I spent all day at work today cleaning and clearing drains.

    1. Hi John,

      Yes, Rob Gilman, the weatherman on WATD (95.9FM) were talking about that (Gloria) today. They said it took 2 WEEKS to restore everyones power !!

      1. If indeed Tom It follows that path we need to prepare. I just went outside to put things away, we scattered flashlights around the house, and my wife is heading to the store now. our laundry is on everyday, but I told my wife she should have no laundry by Saturday night incase we loose power. I would like to hear from Tk on if he thinks this is a Gloria path. Coastal prepare.

      2. Rob Gilman…wow! now that’s a name I haven’t heard in years. I didn’t know he was still on air. I remember him as pretty good forecaster. IIRC he was the met for WRKO-AM. 🙂

        1. Hi Philip.

          I didnt know that about WRKO……Yes, he’s been on WATD for as long as I’ve been down here (10 yrs) and I think he does a pretty good job.

  27. I apologize for continuing on the same topic, but each new satellite picture in the last 90 minutes looks a little better each time. I am anxiously awaiting the next airplane Recon pressure.

  28. It looks like 2 lines of storms moving towards Western MA now. No warnings but the line looks kind of impressive – wonder if they will make it to Boston area.

  30. Irene still a category 3 hurricane with winds of 115mph and pressure of 946mb. A new advisory and track is out at 11pm so will see if anything gets shifted east or west. The Euro wants to take an inland route through Philadelphia and moving north while the GFS brings the center close to NYC and western parts of Long Island. I am not taking chances and tomorrow I will be bringing in my deck furniture and any other loose objects in the yard.

  31. We are on the west facing deck. The wind is somewhat less. The air temp keeps making rather dramatic shifts from cool to hot and muggy. Odd

  32. I think ultimately this thing is going to verify just east of NHC’s current track based on 2 things I have observed this evening: 1) Watching the wobble pattern every time this thing undergoes eye wall replacement amd 2) A poorly forecast shortwave near the Virginias. We’ll see how this pans out.

    1. TK, can you explain an eyewall replacement cycle or if there’s something on the satellite we should be looking for to recognize it, because I hear this term a lot and dont know a lot about it, other than what I can infer based on the term name itself.

      1. The shortest answer I can give: Strong hurricanes are notorious for concentric eye walls, at least one ring of storms inside another. The outer ring takes the inflow away from the inner one, which dies. The outer ring becomes the main ring. Intensification stops or the cyclone can even weaken during this process due to an overall interruption in the inflow, or “air going up the chimney”. Once the outer eye wall becomes the main one, the cyclone will re-intensify.

  33. Its those wobbles that you got to keep an eye on because they will make big differences on the type of impacts an area could get. I never thought I’d see the day Jim Cantore would be in NYC covering a hurricane.

      1. Hey Charlie…. None of the models are showing a good solution first off. You got some going west of New England
        and others going through CT and RI.

    1. I’m getting some posts that are pending approval from users that already post, perhaps different emails?

    2. John,

      I feel the same way that you described in that post. I am a homeowner, and as the homeowner, I dont want to see damage. I dont want to see people hurt or have lives disrupted. At the same time, the weather fanatic in me wants a direct hit. I mean, its the experiences of the extreme weather events (Noreasters, excessive heat, excessive cold, etc) that make me love it so much.

  35. TK- I hope you and the birthday boy have a great day tomorrow. My son is 7 and we just got done wrestling, I ended it when he pounced on me and his knee went right into my ear. TK what is the chances that this follows the path that Gloria took. Gloria gave the south shore quite the punch. And also is there that remote chance we escape scott free.

    1. Extremely remote, almost non existent chance of escaping. A Gloria track is not completely out of the question.

  37. I was just looking at a spaghetti map from Weather Underground and as of 8:00 pm most track just west of SNE entirely and the “outlier” tracks over Boston.

    Is anyone else seeing that trend?

  38. You don’t usually see a hurricane track in that direction. I can’t wait for the 11pm update and if that tracks shifts to the west. As of 5pm if you follow the center line it comes very close to NYC then moves up over western CT before going Northeast from there. Still forecasted to be a tropical storm in Northern New England.

    2. Jimmy, I agree…hopefully, the 11:00 pm track clears things up a bit. I am also hoping that tomorrow morning’s 5:00 am track starts the “real deal” once and for all…who am I kidding? lol. 🙂

      I haven’t seen so much model flip-flop since last winter, and the winter before that…etc.

      1. Hey Philip… This is our appetizzer for tracking winter storms.
        Just saw the spagetti plot on the weather channel and it looks like the same one shown a few hours ago with a
        couple tracking to the west of SNE, some going through CT, and one going through RI and up to Boston.

    1. Hadi, there is a lot of “chat” about Matt’s “chat” over on the WBZ blog. The trolls seem to be staying away…for now. Will see how long it lasts.

  40. As much as I would love an eastward track, I don’t believe that the final track will come anywhere near or south of Boston. If the final track can come as far east as I-495 I’ll take it at this point. The Cape and most of SE MA are probably almost assured to get really slammed by big-time winds…unfortunately.

  42. Tk u r right the hurricane in the last 2 hrs has turned due north and is east of the hurricane track by 50 or so miles, will c if it effects the 11pm track

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