Monday Forecast

62 Comments

7:32AM

DAYS 1-5 (DECEMBER 17-21)
Low pressure departs today and we transition from lingering showers of rain and snow to dry and windy with falling temperatures. The squeeze between this departing low and an approaching high brings dry weather but wind and a shot of modified arctic cold for Tuesday. High pressure moves overhead with tranquil weather Wednesday, with a very cold start and milder finish. A moderating temperature trend will continue later in the week as the high moves offshore Thursday and low pressure travels from the Tennessee Valley to the upper Ohio Valley Friday, bringing milder air and rain into the region. The Winter Solstice occurs Friday at 5:22PM.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Cloudy with rain/snow showers ending west to east with spotty minor additional snow accumulation possible. Mostly cloudy afternoon. Highs 38-45. Wind NW increasing to 10-20 MPH with higher gusts by late in the day.
TONIGHT: Clearing. Lows 18-25. Wind NW 15-25 MPH with higher gusts. Wind chill near to below 10.
TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 25-32. Wind NW 15-25 MPH with higher gusts. Wind chill in the 10s.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 15-22. Wind NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts. Wind chill near to below 10.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 33-40. Wind W 5-15 MPH becoming light variable.
THURSDAY: Increasing clouds. Chance of rain late-night. Lows from the upper 20s to lower 30s early then rising. Highs in the 40s.
FRIDAY: Cloudy. Rain likely. Temperatures steady in the 40s then rising into the 50s.

DAYS 6-10 (DECEMBER 22-26)
Low pressure departs Saturday December 22 with a risk of rain showers early, lingering clouds, increasing wind, a mild start and cooler end. High pressure brings fair and seasonably chilly weather Sunday December 23. Watching for one or two passing disturbances that may bring some snow/mix but no major storminess to the region during the December 24-26 period.

DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 27-31)
Timing systems is hard enough when models are performing well at this range, but they are not, so my leaning for today is pattern persistence which would mean a fair and colder start to the period, a brief warm-up with a low pressure and frontal passage around December 29, and a fair weather with a seasonable end-of-December chill returning to wrap up the month, and 2018.

62 thoughts on “Monday Forecast”

  4. Good morning and thank you TK.
    YAWN……….

    Another Monday where I don’t even give crap about the Patriot’s loss.
    We may want to blame their defense, but they only gave up 17 points.
    The Pats “should” have been able to put up more than 17 points, but NO.
    They could only manage 10. LAUGHABLE performance. Something just
    isn’t right.

    Weather-wize it is blah, blah blah…..

    Hope things change with the new year.

    1. It’s funny you said that because I was like oh well that’s what’s you get . Over 100 yds in penalties ( come on ) . Gronk looks like a lost puppy & I definitely think he’s gone . The team this year is just not good & going into the playoffs as a road team does not bold well for them moving forward . But what was the organization looking to accomplish when they won’t pay to keep quality guys here .

      1. No duckboats until October 2019 at the earliest. Too bad the other winter teams around here stink as well. 🙁

        At least we can savor the Red Sox Championship and seriously look forward to next season. 😀

  5. Amazing for so late that the SST off the south coast are still about 50 degrees. When the two jets possibly phase in a few weeks could be like gasoline and matches storm wise.

    1. I’ll believe that when I see it.
      SSTs due East of us are close to average, however.
      So, in terms of any possible rain/snow issues, it would be pretty much normal.

      Average: 44.45
      Current: 45.14

      Departure from Average: +0.69 Degree

  7. A little Christmas quiz….

    In the song “Do You Hear What I Hear?” how big was the tail of the star?

    a. As big as your arm
    b. As big as a comet
    c. As big as a kite
    d. None of the above

  8. 12Z GFS says NO SNOW for Christmas.
    Waiting on the FV3 version and of course the Euro. We shall see.
    Not counting on it, that’s for sure. 😀

          1. I know, but a bit more would be better. Something in the range of 2-4 or 3-6. I guess we’ll take what we can get.

  11. Philip…
    I couldn’t disagree more about the teams. If the Pats have no chance of winning, they should just forfeit the remainder of the games and save the trouble, yeah? 🙂
    The records of the winter teams (Bruins & Celts) prove they don’t stink. The Celtics are 5th in the eastern conference with a record of 18 wins, 11 losses, and have been playing very well of late. The Bruins have not shown a great deal of consistency at times but that has been with a considerably injured team. Just about every game this season they have been missing at least 1 if not 2 or more of their top players. Yet their record at 17 wins and 12 losses (with 4 OT losses which are still worth 1 point) put them 5th in their division, certainly not at the top of the pack by any stretch but far from a team that stinks.

    The Patriots at 9-5 are right where I expected them to be and I expect them to finish 10-6. That’s a winning record. They’ll be in the playoffs. Why cut it short before it’s over? I think anybody who counts them out shouldn’t even watch the games or root for the team. As sports fans we’ve been spoiled rotten around here and I hope everybody enjoyed it because nothing lasts forever. Maybe the Sox will be great again in 2019, maybe not. Maybe the Pats will rebuild and be great again (even though technically they still are a damn good team by most standards), and maybe not. The B’s & C’s both have work to do to contend but neither are that far away. Even as a city / region no longer at the peak of the mountain, we’re still doing pretty damn good. The fan bases just need to give their expectations a little reality check. 😉

    1. I am still somewhat doom and gloom about the patriots but not as much as others. If they lose at home I will throw in the towel in my mind about their hopes. But the fins game they could have won but it was a freak loss. The steelers game was tight and our defense actually showed up. If our defense can keep showing up, our special teams make amazing plays AND brady is able to ball out – we can clean things up. But I will be cautiously watching the home games.

      1. I have been disappointed in the offense at times. The Steelers did a lot to try to hand us that game (not intentionally of course) but we would have won that going away with a clicking offense. Didn’t happen. But that doesn’t mean the offense will do the same thing next game, or game after. It’s game to game. A lot of people make the assumption that whatever they do “today” will be carbon copied next time, and the time after. Nope. Doesn’t work that way.

  12. So above was my little non-weather rant for the day. I don’t have a weather-rant because I don’t rant about weather itself, just how certain things are handled or reacted to. 😉 But I spare you that today and just say that if you want my thoughts about what the percentage chance is of a white Christmas by definition, that is, 1 inch or more of snow on the ground at 7AM Christmas morning, I’d say it’s about 10%. If you would be satisfied with a sugar coating of snow, that is somewhat more likely and I’ll put that at about 30% for now at 8 days out. Stay tuned…

  13. I think Josh McDaniels is killing the Pats offense. My opinion of him has really declined in recent years. Too conservative. Wish he would’ve gone to Indy. Still, I think this team has some cards to play that it hasn’t shown yet. Hopefully they don’t find a way to luck into the 2 seed. They need to play in that first game. Either get knocked out right away, or build some momentum and lay the groundwork for a deeper run. Their biggest issue is having to play from behind too much. Gotta start games better. And there’s my two cents on sports for today 🙂

    On weather… onto the next rainstorm late week. This go around models have been very consistent. Strong Lakes cutter. Heavy rain (widespread 1-2″), maybe some wind concerns, severe weather threat in the Southeast and even further to the north we’ll have to see if we get into a situation where some instability can develop in a highly sheared environment. This one will probably hurt in ski country also. Even up there, it looks wet and warm.

  15. Tweet from meteorologist John Homenuk
    Happy hour Euro Weeklies (use with discretion) suggest we’re on target for a colder, stormier pattern in the East by the beginning of January. It’s an excellent pattern for snow as advertised: Aleutian trough, -EPO ridge, high latitude Atlantic blocking into NAO region as well

    1. This would be generally consistent with what Judah Cohen has been saying. He doesn’t offer too much different in his updated blog today vs. a week ago…..

      “For now, the GFS is predicting the PV disruption to peak the last few days of December. On average it takes two weeks for the impacts to reach the mid to lower troposphere, which brings us to the end of the second week of January. I would expect a return of colder temperatures to return at that time to the Eastern US, that could persist for multiple weeks.”

      In the meantime, he expects near to above normal temperatures for the next two weeks in the eastern US.

  16. Hopefully things change before then otherwise if your a fan of winter weather your not liking the next few weeks.

  20. One comment about the Pats. They can still be the #2 seed, they are unbeaten at home including against Houston and KC and it would only take a loss in the divisional game if KC is the number one seed to get the Pats back home field advantage.

  21. Mark the link you posted above about the new year’s eve snow on the fv3 gfs has about 32 inches of snow totals in 24 hours kuchera method and 22 inches of snow 10 to ratio. The temperatures are also between 8 and 12 so very cold. That will be so cool if that happens
    I’ll be happy just from that one storm lol.
    I am on Mobil but maybe Dave can post the pivotal weather snow map for it.

  22. Thank you, TK.

    While I could do without the oscillations, with high pressure areas once again sinking south and east rather than staying to our north, I’ll take whatever cold I can get. At least it’s not going to be crazy mild when we do get the southerlies on Friday and Saturday.

    On sports, the Celtics, who I don’t really follow, are turning things around. They’ll be a contender. But, Toronto may stop them from going to the Finals.

    The Bruins have done remarkably well, given the injuries and the inconsistent play of Rask.

    The Patriots are not a great team this year. What could still save them, if you will, and propel them to be successful once in the post-season is the fact that no team in the NFL is very good. I don’t even think the Chiefs, Rams, or Saints are very good. They’re not balanced, and certainly not dominant in all phases of the game. There’s a lot of mediocrity in the NFL, a lot of parity, and some above-average teams with major flaws like the Patriots.

    In spite of it all I really like some surprisingly good players on this team, including on defense Flowers (one of the best in the NFL at his position – versatile, athletic, strong), Jackson, Harmon (master at opportunistic interceptions), and Jason McCourty; and on offense I like the way the Patriots have used Patterson (he’s like a gazelle when he runs down field) and Develin. They’ve maximized their value. Develin is probably my favorite Patriot. A former Brown University defensive end with limited speed and athleticism is now the best fullback in the game. He’s an exceptional blocker, very good at getting 1 yard touchdowns, and has shown an ability to be a receiving option on short yardage plays when you need a first down.

    1. Jason Mccourty is not consistant. Gilmore on the other hand I believe should be in the pro-bowl. Gilmore and Harmon seem to be the only ones doing shit back there consistantly. The front it totally depends on who is playing. Develin has been top tier for a long time. I also feel that the patriots are not playing patriot football. They are trying to be a team that they are not. I really do not know why they are so heavy on Michael when we have James white and when James white is cooking, well, the offense is cooking.

      1. Yes, 18z regular GFS had some snow from a clipper. 00z GFS has an inside runner / rainstorm.

        My comment above however was on the 18z FV3. 00z FV3 is not out that far yet. Though I have no doubt that it will not be showing a 32″ snowstorm in Boston again 🙂

  24. The squall, that was stronger across northern Mass, did hold on just enough to leave traces of snow in the Marshfield area.

  25. Woke up around 2:30 to what sure sounded like thunder and looked out to see a coa5ing of snow.

    20 with gusts into the high teens

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