Monday Forecast

84 Comments

8:34AM

DAYS 1-5 (DECEMBER 24-28)
On this day before Christmas, a 2-part disturbance will bring the only chance of getting snow on the ground before Santa’s visit. We all know Santa doesn’t need snow to visit, but many people like to see it for festive reasons. Well, part 1 of the system failed mainly to dry air, but did produce a coating of snow along parts of the South Coast and nearby areas. This was an area I was concerned may have light rain instead of snow, but everything was pushed a bit further south, the air was slightly colder, and snow fell there but nothing to the north. The second part of the system is a strong upper level disturbance that will generate snow showers this afternoon and evening. Accumulations of snow will occur in bands and be on the order of a coating to 1 inch. Sometimes in a set-up such as this a localized band may over-produce, so that will be something to watch for. The favored areas for snow this afternoon and evening will be eastern MA and southern NH. By late evening, it’s all gone, the moon will be shining, and a seasonable chill will be in place, lasting through the holiday on Tuesday which will feature bright sunshine. High pressure building in from the west will continue this weather through the middle of the week. A fast-moving low pressure area will move in during Friday, but along with the arrival of milder air behind now offshore high pressure, this will bring rain to the region, not snow. Not expecting this one to be a prolific rain producer.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Mostly cloudy. Brief very light snow South Coast / Cape Cod early. Snow showers this afternoon with a coating to 1 inch possible. Highs 35-42. Wind light variable morning, N 5-15 MPH but higher gusts this afternoon.
TONIGHT (CHRISTMAS EVE): Variably cloudy with snow showers eastern MA and southern NH early, a few snow showers possible in RI as well. Clearing late evening. Lows 17-24. Wind NW 5-15 MPH with higher gusts.
TUESDAY (CHRISTMAS DAY): Mostly sunny. Highs 33-40. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. Lows in the 10s. Highs in the 30s.
THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows in the 10s. Highs in the 30s.
FRIDAY: Cloudy. Rain likely. Temperatures rise 30s to 40s.

DAYS 6-10 (DECEMBER 29-JANUARY 2)
Dry weather expected December 29 but delaying the cold air’s arrival so that should be an above normal temperature day as well. The remainder of the period is in question as it looks like a couple disturbances or a more organized system could affect the region with rain and/or snow. Guidance is all over the place here and the type of pattern it is doesn’t lead me to have any more confidence either so will basically punt on this today and re-evaluate for tomorrow’s update.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 3-7)
This period may start unsettled then should trend drier with temperatures near to below normal.

84 thoughts on “Monday Forecast”

    1. Not great at Boston. Already done at Worcester. With the type of cold pattern upcoming, despite the dryness, we’ll manage to get enough small events to exceed those amounts in Boston by then.

  6. The radar showed echoes over my head around 6:00 this morning but nothing making it to the ground, was all virga but the moon was penetrating through and was faint and hazy highlighting what could have been, as a tease. Maybe round 2 will be different.

  10. Thank you, TK, and Happy Christmas Eve to all in the WHW family!

    I share with y’all an inspirational, tear-jerker promotional video, starring Justino the night watchman at a mannequin factory, used as the official advertisement in 2015 for El Gordo. El Gordo (“The Fat One”) is the Spanish national Christmas lottery. I use this video as writing prompt for my students at this time of the year.
    Here’s the link:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BOnrzULj-BE

    I hope you have a couple of minutes to watch the video.

    Here’s hoping you all have a special and blessed holiday with family and friends.
    Merry Christmas!

  14. Good morning and thanks TK. Woke up to a nice dusting of snow here in Coventry this morning and snowing lightly again now. Not enough to cover the blades of grass but looks more festive for sure! 30 degrees.

    1. As modeled that storm would drop 6-10” at a 10:1 ratio. Not quite the 30” bomb it was showing last week but I would gladly take it.

  16. We have seen this for a while the computer models trying to get something going to close out 2018 start 2019. I hope we end the year with a bang or start the year off with a bang

  18. Coming down moderately now jj. Ground getting coated here too !! I hit the like button Vicki it’s headed your way soon if not already there.

  21. Christmas snow here. Started about 10:35. I ran out to pick up some of the headwall alt beer by Tuckerman Brewing Company and even the adults were like little kids when they saw the snow.

  22. It’s a good thing there is no onshore flow today thru Thursday.

    Massive astronomical high tide.

    All marshes are lakes and there’s no beach at the small beach in Brant Rock.

      1. That word, or the mis-use of it, is central in the narration portion of Will Vinton’s Claymation Christmas Celebration TV special shown only once in the late 1980s. I recorded it. 😉

  27. Well, we have some snow here, but I would describe it as
    “Pitiful Snow”. Certainly NOT accumulating in the slightest. On top of it
    being light, it is too damn warm. My sensor is reading 38.

    3. It’s Christmas Eve. It’s snowing here and I would never use the word pitiful to describe snow falling on Christmas Eve.

    1. There is no need for any dynamic cooling. The atmosphere is already cold enough. This setup is not close to the kind we need that.

  30. Here in Billerica there was a burst of moderate snow then it has been a very fluffy very light flurry type snow

  31. Well, the pitiful snow turned into a touch of mood snow and now back to pitiful snow.
    ZERO accumulation. Streets remained 1/2 dry.
    Oh well…..

    1. I’m not really sure what you were looking for. I don’t think the snow is pitiful whatsoever. It looked absolutely beautiful falling from the sky and turned into a blessing when it didn’t cause any problems on the ground. even if we had gotten to a solid coating it would have melted right after it stopped so that prevents patches of ice from developing overnight. my mom is now quite happy that she can go to midnight mass without worrying about ice patches. 🙂

      1. I can understand JPD’s point. Christmas scenes for generations have always had snow falling and on the ground. Cards, tv ads etc. 🙂

        1. But also family and church. I love snow but to me the other two are what Christmas is really all about. I sat for a while on Sutton common this evening, watching families going and coming and the tree lit in Macs memory. To me…that is Christmas It sure is different things for everyone

      1. But Christmas is different for everyone and we need to respect that. Snow is an important part for JPD and Philip. Other things are important for others….seems TK and I focus on those other things.

        So Philip and JPD and those who are wishing for a white Christmas….I hope your dreams are full of snow even if your yard can’t be. TK, I will attend midnight mass in spirit, if not in person, with your mom. And for anyone who wants to join me on the deck for my annual Christmas Eve Santa watch….please make noise so I don’t mistake you for the coyotes that have been howling tonight

  32. Happy Christmas Eve, I have always said I have had it good this time of year, my dads side was big on X-Mas Eve (Portuguese) while my mothers side is bigger on X-Mas Day use to go to my grandparents on my fathers side on X-Mas Eve and my grandparents on my mothers on X-Mas Day. Now we do X-Mas eve at our house with just immediate family but still go out to my Grandparents on my Mother’s side on X-Mas.

  42. 6Z GFS for 12/30-31

    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2018122506/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_23.png

    6Z FV3-GFS

    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/fv3p/2018122506/fv3p_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_24.png

    CMC

    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2018122500/gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_25.png

    EURO

    https://imgur.com/a/E0pI5c1

    I’d say the jury is still out on this one. My guess… Probably closer to the Euro solution.
    Ie SUPPRESSED!! Why would it be anything else? Oh yeah, it could have been a cutter. Seems the only 2 scenarios so far.

    What will it be? What will it be? We’ll have to wait and see.

    1. The jury will be out on this until about 2 1/2 to 3 days before. No change in the status of model performance, as SAK and I have been talking about for weeks. I don’t see that changing anytime soon. And what JMA said about FV3 is correct. It’s going to end up delayed. They can’t get it right. I don’t look at it any longer.

  45. The GFS has really struggled with the evolving #PolarVortex disruption but last night’s run was probably my favorite with high right over the Pole with a sister vortices over #Europe , East Asia & eastern North America, would likely make for some interesting #winter weather.

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