Friday Forecast

127 Comments

6:55AM

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 11-15)
Arctic high pressure settles in gradually through Sunday with a stretch of very cold weather and this high also will serve to keep a storm system well to the south of the region as it passes by on Sunday. The only impacts from it will be some cloudiness across the sky later Saturday into Sunday and perhaps some ocean-effect snow flurries over Cape Cod Sunday and early Monday. By early next week the high pressure center will have shifted southwestward into the Ohio Valley with a nose of it toward New England, bringing a slightly milder westerly flow to the region, allowing temperatures back toward seasonal averages as dry weather continues.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 18-25, coldest in higher elevations central MA and southwestern NH. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts. Wind chill near to below 10 at times.
TONIGHT: Clear. Lows 5-15, least-cold urban centers and immediate shoreline. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts. Wind chill near to below 0.
SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 23-30. Wind N 5-15 MPH.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 11-18. Wind N 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Risk of snow showers Cape Cod. Highs 23-30. Wind NE 5-15 MPH except 15-25 MPH Cape Cod.
MONDAY: Partly cloudy. Risk of snow showers Cape Cod early. Lows in the 10s. Highs in the 30s.
TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Lows in the 20s. Highs from the upper 30s to lower 40s.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 16-20)
Arctic cold front passes later January 16, a milder day turns much colder by night with a risk of a snow shower or snow squall with front. Fair, cold January 17. Disturbance from the west may bring a threat of some light snow January 18. Next storm system may run through the Great Lakes during the January 19-20 weekend bringing milder and windy weather Saturday January 19, rain showers ending as snow showers Sunday January 20 as cold air returns.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 21-25)
Overall pattern looks cold/dry with odds favoring the next storm threat being suppressed to the south of New England around mid period.

127 thoughts on “Friday Forecast”

  2. Today, we are back to November 30th equivalent sun “strength”.

    I felt like, in the clearing skies late yesterday afternoon, the light hanged on a bit later after 4:30pm.

    I know for sure I could see the disc of the sun at 4:11pm, when 3 weeks back, it would have just disappeared below the horizon. Slowly making progress.

  3. Thank you, TK.

    Yes, Tom, I can tell a slight difference in light. My father used to observe these things. He was the person who got me hooked onto weather, climate, seasons, and nature. I don’t have nearly the understanding you have, or others on this blog. I’m always very impressed by your knowledge.

    On a different topic, I’m disturbed by the firing of a meteorologist in Rochester, NY, for inadvertently using a racial slur. We all make mistakes. I know I have made my fair share in public speaking. I believe Kappell when he says he jumbled his words. But, more importantly, it shouldn’t be that easy to fire someone without due process. The firing practices in the U.S. have upset me ever since I moved back from Europe in the mid 1990s. I have witnessed firsthand the firings in workplaces, sometimes of colleagues who worked closely with me, often for no apparent reason other than the boss wants the person out.

    And, of course, today we have furloughed federal workers at places like the Food and Drug Administration and the National Weather Service not getting paid because of a political impasse they have NOTHING to do with. I find this shameful in our great, affluent country that people can become pawns in a political war. I can honestly say that this kind of practice would be impermissible in most, if not all, European countries. Why? Because it is patently and grossly unfair. And, even though the scenarios are different, it is similarly it is patently unfair to fire someone like Kappell without due process.

    These things affect me personally My father was fired from Harvard University for blowing the whistle on grant mismanagement. He was a brilliant researcher and tenured associate professor. But, because he didn’t play the game and go along with Harvard’s diversion of funds – he filed a lawsuit against Harvard – he was fired. Luckily, he was an MD and so he could find work. But, he could never do the work he loved – research – again. There were no protections for him, as there are virtually no protections for most employees in the U.S. from such firing practices.

    1. Outstanding thought. I have never seen it.

      But the more interesting question would be what would the ingredient be????
      Perhaps little pieces of Marshmallow???

    2. I did find it weird when WB Mason started selling “blizzard” bottled water. They called their printer paper blizzard white which was fine because it isn’t food. Then they decided to venture into a consumable product and name it blizzard. I thought it was a dumb move at the time.

      1. You don’t put crushed ice in a DQ Blizzard. Sorry. You will
        have to come up with something else. 😀

  6. Good morning and thank you TK.

    Sorry I missed out on the excellent discussion last evening re:
    Twitterologists. (love that term as well. Nice job JMA!)

    I would like to echo sentiments about how lucky we are to have a “REAL” perspective on the weather from TK and JMA and occasionally SAK. We are fortunate to have
    this forum where we can get the “True” information and not the hype.

    Speaking of hype, I was disappointed in Eric Last night. On the lead in to the weather
    Eric mentioned something like stay tuned, when we return I’ll talk about prospects for SNOW on Sunday (or something along those lines). I told me wife that he was full of shit and there would be NO snow on Sunday, save for the slight chance of a snow shower on the Cape. Damn I HATE that!! IF I didn’t already know better, I would have gotten excited about a comment like that.

    Btw, from last night, speaking of individual ensemble members.
    Believe me I know what they are, AND if I pick out a particular member
    and post it, it is true that I would like that result, but at the same time
    I FULLY realize that it was only one of many and that the mean result
    of all is a suppressed system. I know JMA was only speaking about
    certain twitterologists.

    HAPPY FRIDAY to all!

    1. The few times Todd had some of us on the weather watcher network to the Channel 7 newsroom, they would make similar statements to the one you referenced of Eric’s…..teasers. They are required by the network. It bothered Todd and I know full well from more discussion with Pete that it bothered him. To me, it is important for us all to remember that is part of employment and not something attributable to the meteorologists. Eric could quit but then he’d find the same requirement everywhere else.

    2. To Eric’s credit he is generally pretty good about keeping it straight on twitter. But TV is TV. He has bosses who need ratings. Teasing about the possibility of snow because sportscasters across the country have mentioned it as a possibility (some sports shows I watch were still talking about it yesterday!) is good to keep people tuned in through the ad breaks even if he is letting down snow lovers when he comes back. As long as TV is a ratings business this will always be the practice. I know you know this but I just wanted to say it because eric tends to be one of the people who has some scruples but is beholden to his producer overlords haha

      1. Very well said, Dr. I think the majority of our local mets have tremendous knowledge and scruples. I know that this eats away at them.

  7. I finally finished putting together a nice little graphic to show friends when they say “hey (insert app or website) said we would be getting (X amount) inches of snow in a week!”

    https://i.imgur.com/BL2Hoor.jpg

    Apps and sites are run by computers doing dry regurgiation of model reads. There’s zero nuance. As we here all know. I think this will help them understand.

  8. Vicki and Senior El Stupido,
    Yes, I understand it is TV and all about ratings etc. etc. etc.
    It still sucks!! and it is WRONG, wrong, WRONG and more Wrong!!!!

    Generally speaking ERIC is very good about this stuff. I was surprised and took
    note.

    2. Haha I knew you knew so I put the caveat of “I know you know this” – that said I imagined you whipping out a little book and taking down notes on meteorologists.

  9. Thanks TK.

    Enjoyed and agreed 100% with the “Twitterologist” comments. Just too much in the way of trained professional meteorologists pandering to their own biases (often confirmation biases) and the desires of their followers.

    Joshua, enjoyed your comment as well on the shutdown. I’m considered essential/excepted with the NWS, so been working without pay for 3 weeks now. First check being missed today. No real end in sight. I’m ok financially for a little while, but many of my colleagues nationwide are not, and this is not good for anyone. I worry this will do irreparable damage to NOAA and other federal agencies. Really sad situation.

    1. Lousy way to begin your career, WxW. I’m keeping you all in my thoughts and prayers and cannot thank you enough for working through this.

    2. What will happen when employees get sick and tired of working for no pay and start staging sick outs?

      I was once was employed by the state of Massachusetts and there was a budget crisis and we were all told that we may have to work without pay. I found another job pronto and QUIT! Others were not going to show up. Others to call in sick etc. Bottom line, it AIN’T Good.

      1. Years ago I worked for the U.S. Census Bureau (Dept. of Commerce) for almost 12 years. I was there during the 1995-96 shutdown which started about a week before Christmas but only lasted until a week after the New Year 1996. IIRC we only missed one or two paychecks.
        On a weather related note, that was a true white Christmas as we were under a nice snow blitz during that timeframe, and in fact, the Boston office got an extra snow day right after the shutdown was over. 🙂

        1. Sorry about your situation WxW. Back in those days, Congress used to work together to solve disputes. Hang in there.

  10. WxWatcher, My thoughts are with you and your family. Not getting paid is a real hardship, especially when it’s absolutely no fault of yours!

  13. Let me get this straight….

    Suppression, suppression, suppression THEN LAKES CUTTER
    and back
    to Suppression, suppression, suppression.

    PISSA! just what we need.

    Keep it coming. Love it!

    1. Awww I haven’t heard the term Pissa in a long while. Or maybe I read it recently and it didn’t sink in. I always liked that term. I’m working on willing a storm here. I think we all need it.

    1. Includes most of Upstate New York as well, except much of the Hudson Valley surprisingly. Albany looks bare.

      1. Yes, the Hudson Valley bare ground is pretty neat, with the upslope factor of the Berkshires delivering snow to them.

  16. I fee good about the pattern after the next 10 days. Euro weeklies look good even though they haven’t been great but it fits with the expected pattern.

      1. Most especially if the next system is, indeed, a cutter or inside runner!)*@&#*&!@*(#*!@&*(#^!&@^#&!^@#&^!&@#^!&@^#!^@#!@#^!@#

  17. Re: Snow chances…

    Risk of a widespread light snow event around one will from today, not quite seen by any models yet but may appear on today’s ECMWF pending its performance.

    Greatest risk for more substantial snow in January 25-31 window.

    Long term pattern is near to mostly below normal temps, below normal precip/snow

      1. No. About Friday.

        MLK weekend can include any of 10 dates. There is nothing about that weekend that makes it any more or less likely to have a precip threat than any other 3-day period from December to March.

          1. Friday is not part of the weekend. It’s a weekday. You’re referring MLK Jr weekend which runs Saturday thru Monday.

          2. Dr. Stupid, you’re in my age category, but you so look like you’re in your early 20s in this picture!

          4. Right about what I had thought. My oldest is a year shy of 40 – although, when she hits 40, she may admit it. I won’t 😉

  19. I just don’t understand how we can be in a “cold/dry” pattern and yet we still get rain events. CUTTERS no less! 🙁

  20. No cutter on the 20th, it will be suppressed. We’ve seen this 2 or 3 times already in the last 4 to 6 weeks.

    Euro already beginning correction on 12z run

  23. Gee, this blog is getting really silly. Probably a perfect remedy would be some SNOW. A good 6 inches would be nice. The fluffy type – easy to take off cars and stuff.

    I still believe we will get some decent snow in Feb. or March. If not – maybe the signals heard from outer space are from some other life form and they are controling our weather. LOL! I have always found the possibility of life in outer space fascinating. Always wondered what it would be like if they landed here. Probably leave – hopefully not plan us for dinner! AKA, Twilight Zone – “It’s a cookbook”! Ok, now I’m getting silly.

      1. I hope so. Always thought when I was younger by now we would have colonies on the moon and have landed on Mars. I guess we have to fix Earth first. And that seems impossible now.

    1. Funny you should post that almost the same time as me guessing when we might see at least three inches (hadn’t looked at any models the past couple days.)

      Now if the patriots can pull out the win and the colts can pull an upset… And if the planetary alignments can pull this system to the 20th instead – it would be a snow bowl day at gillette. lol

  25. I guess instead of inches for the season we should have had a contest to guess when the first significant snowstorm of 3 inches or more would happen. I’m going to guess before the end of January. If you were to ask me a date I would say by January 21st.

    1. I like that idea. If everyone else wants to play, please put your guesstimates on the contest page and I’ll record them.

      1. Oh and your photo has created a discussion even outside the WHW family. I asked my youngest (that I painfully admit will be 33 this summer) how old you are. She said between her brothers (35 in March) and sisters (39 in July) ages. Funny, I have never thought much about my age and could really care less but when my kids reach milestones I think I hit a couple of years ago, it is a bit of a shock!!!

  26. Hey Dr. S! You haven’t aged much since the BBS days of the 1990s! What’s our secret? I’m 51 and got guessed as 33 the other day. 😉

    Re: ECMWF. I expect the model to pick up a little bit of amplitude on a system for the 18th and suppress the system for the 20th and 21st further south in future runs.

    1. We stay inside scrutinizing computer screens and never get damaged by the sun! BBS’s started that trend! lol

    2. Hmmm, time for a nice visit to Charlottesville, VA. I have actually been there before. Beautiful!!! Elevation: 594′

      1. We have driven by when we took 64 to Charleston. Youngest and her family did as well last summer when they drove to Disney. Just a beautiful area.

  29. Appreciate all the nice comments above, RE: shutdown. It’s been tough, but we’ve all really appreciated the support we’ve seen from people during this 🙂

    It’s kind of funny, winter has found just about every place in the CONUS this season, except SNE. Today it’s the St. Louis area getting one of their biggest snowstorms in a long time. Even Washington DC will likely get a few to several inches of snow this weekend, as will much of Delmarva. Where I am in NJ, maybe an inch or two especially if it shifts north a little. I don’t really see that happening, but I do think it’s possible that areas that will get the snow, like DC and southern Delmarva, could over-perform. Latest RGEM:

    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=rgem&region=neus&pkg=asnow&runtime=2019011118&fh=54

    1. Good luck Wxwatcher. At the very least, you can be thankful you are doing what you enjoy but that won’t be much consolation if this situation drags on much longer. I’m hopeful it won’t.

  31. For the first time ever in an NFL playoff game there will be a women as a referee. Good for her & this will be our game

  32. The 1/20-1/31 period will either be very cold and snowy, or the GEFS, GEPS, and EPS will go down in flames together. The cold is probably a given, but they’re all snowy too. That’s the tricky part.

    1. I tossed out the watcher period of 1-25 to 1-31 earlier today. It does get more active, but the question is can we get it to line up just right for SNE?

      1. Harvey was saying the possibility is there but was very good at pointing out it’s only a possibility. Great met there .

  36. Good morning, heading up to Killington – it’s CT ski council weekend there. They have received two feet of new snow on the week. Passing thru Brattleboro now – 9 degrees and still mostly bare ground!

  39. Good morning.

    Got down to 12 here.

    Charts are beginning to look interesting down the road a bit.

    Euro has it snowing for almost 3 days straight from 1/19 to 1/21 for a boston accumulation of about 14-15 inches. That’s sizeable, but over 3 days, it’s really nothing.
    And of course, does NOT mean it will happen.

    Here are the maps and it is still snowing at the end of the run:

    https://imgur.com/a/hjGQ4zz

    For total laughs here is the run total for the FV3-GFS! (24-30 inches)

    https://imgur.com/a/kFecfI4

  41. I will be happy to get a couple inches the way this winter has been. The other day I was happy to see snow showers and when I am happy to see snow showers its been a bad winter for me.

  43. The current EURO projection for MLK weekend has to be taken with one large fact ….

    In the last 36 to 48 hrs, the low in that time frame has moved from Buffalo, NY to now the benchmark. I don’t think it’s suddenly going to stop there 🙂

    1. ….. and it’s going from one consolidated deep low pressure area to strung out areas of low pressure. Just like what is happening this weekend.

  44. Football picks. TK hopefully a little lover for my Cowboys.
    Colts with the points, Cowboys with the points they will be able to run on the Rams and have better than a punchers chance to win the game outright, Pats cover, and I may get burned here but I think the Saints cover.

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