Sunday Forecast

150 Comments

7:45AM

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 13-17)
Arctic high pressure assures us that a storm passes well to the south of southeastern New England today but as it expands and turns more to the northeast after going by, the air flow between it and the high will enhance a northeasterly flow and create some ocean effect snow showers over Cape Cod later today and these may expand northward along the eastern MA coast and even westward somewhat along the South Coast into Monday morning. Minor localized snow accumulations may occur if bands set up over any region for a while. By later Monday this wind flow weakens and turns more northerly, putting an end to any snow showers and just keeping it chilly and dry, with this continuing Tuesday. By Wednesday we will have moderated with a more westerly air flow but this will be ahead of an arctic cold front which will reinforce the cold air again by Wednesday night and Thursday, maybe announcing it with a passing snow shower or snow squall.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Partly sunny. Late-day snow showers possible Cape Cod. Highs 23-30. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Coastal snow showers expand from Cape Cod to South Shore and possible Cape Ann MA. Minor accumulation possible.
Lows 10-17. Wind NE up to 10 MPH.
MONDAY: Partly cloudy. Risk of snow showers eastern MA coast and Cape Cod to southern RI especially early, with additional minor accumulation possible. Highs 27-34. Wind light NE becoming N.
MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 12-19. Wind light N to NW.
TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 30-37. Wind light NW to W.
WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. Risk of snow showers at night. Lows in the 20s. Highs from the middle 30s to lower 40s.
THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows in the 10s. Highs in the 20s.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 18-22)
A low pressure system moves in from the west January 18 bringing a minor mix/snow event and this front hangs around into the January 19 with additional low pressure moving up along it. Yesterday I expressed uncertainty on how this would behave and I’m still uncertain but today I will lean toward a quicker-moving system rippling the front back to the north and bringing a mix to rain event in January 19 ending as mix/snow as colder air returns by early January 20, followed by windy, colder, drier weather later January 20 through January 21. Next system may bring a light snow threat by January 22 but looking that far out in this pattern is highly uncertain.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 23-27)
May have another passing system with rain/mix/snow about mid period but highly uncertain. Overall trend is still cold.

150 thoughts on “Sunday Forecast”

  2. 0Z Euro has relaxed the suppressed event for the 1/20-1/21 event.
    Now has a much closer pass that dumps snow and threatens rain in parts of SNE.
    In any event, following are the 10 day run total snow (virtually all from the 1/20-1/21
    event and 2 surface maps:

    https://imgur.com/a/FI1Rryb

    1. Thanks JJ. I think they win today, but it may not be pretty.
      Should they win, very concerned about next week in KC.

    2. Sorry about the Cowboys JJ. Rams looked pretty dominant last night. Cowboys had a pretty good season this year though!

  4. It is going to be tough to win in Kansas City. Before we get there I would not over look this Chargers team. I can’t bet against the Pats since there at home but I think were in for a close football game.

  6. Today I question the ECMWF’s handling of southern stream energy. Timing and amplification look incorrect to me. Yesterday’s 12z was a little better. But I am beginning to think it’s a 3-part event, as in 3 low centers, the first overhead, the 2nd west of here, the third well south of here. A lot to play out between now and then.

  7. North our defense got pushed around last night. I will say this at the beginning of the season you told me NFC East champs win a playoff game I would sign up for that. We need to get more weapons in the passing game through draft free agency or trade and if we could sign Earl Thomas who wants to play for the Cowboys then that defense will be even better.

  9. My son in law said he heard Brady’s comment about making best of what they have (paraphrasing) and it was taken out of context. I was both happy to hear and not surprised. Go Pats. For the moment….and after coffee…let the appetizer prep begin

  10. According to Barry this morning, accumulating snows for next Sunday into Monday. He insists Boston gets its first inch…and then some. His exact words.

    Latest first inch = 2/14/2007

  13. Thanks TK !

    JpDave, I’ve been following along on how your wife is feeling. I hope, much better !

    I’ve lost track on how many days I’ve had this cold. Never could get rid of it and now it’s a nasty bronchitis. My voice hasn’t been itself in 3 days, but at least I have a productive cough. I pushed through school all week last week, perhaps a mistake, but I’m going to take Monday for sure and allow myself to beat this.

    Not fun, one of the nastier colds I’ve fought the last few winters. Anyhow, I hope mrs JpDave is on an upward health trend !!

    1. Sorry to hear Tom,

      My wife is very sick. Today is day 15, the last 4 of which have been the worst.

      It am day 16 and still feel some residual effects.

      Let us hope we all get well soon.

      2. Oh no JpDave …. that’s a long time for both of you !

        My wife has me taking Robitussin every 4 hrs and drinking some orange flovored vitamin D ?? drink every now and then.

        Thinking of your wife, please let her know we’re all hoping she feels better !!

        Thanks for the well wishes everyone !

    2. Feel better Tom. I think staying home Monday is a very smart decision considering it’s been going this long . You should take Tuesday as well as you do not want it to turn into pneumonia .

      1. There must be something going around moreso than usual for this time of year. Everyone get better soon! 🙂

        1. I know I didn’t help matters by not getting my flu shot, so some of this is probably self-induced. I’ve been pretty good about that the last many autumns.

          1. Well I got mine and did nothing!
            And, if you ask me, this wasn’t an ordinary cold, it has to be some sort of flu bug.

            1. btw, my wife and I are convinced the flu shots are a fabrication of the pharmaceutical industry to increase profits at the expense of the general population. Those shots might as well be sugar and water.

              Cynical? Damn straight I am.

            2. In your case I agree. You are in a setting where many are immune compromised and the flu could be disasterous.

  14. Tom, I’m sorry to hear about your flu/bronchitis. Sounds like you and Mrs. OS have something similar.

    I’m not an alarmist, but walking pneumonia is a real thing. And, you and Mrs. OS may want to consider seeing a doctor.

    I’m doing much better. It hit me hard and lasted a while, but my recovery was rather smooth, thankfully. I still have a residual cough, especially in the morning. I am back to running, albeit bundled up. I couldn’t resist running on these beautiful winter days. It is truly glorious outside for people like myself who have trouble in heat and humidity. It’s the polar opposite (pardon the pun).

    My football predictions were bad. This is why I don’t gamble. Well, I’m also a bit of Puritan in regard to gambling, but I do not impose my uptight behavior on others.

    Cowboys were beaten by the Rams’ rushing attack, and that surprised me. The Colts were beaten by KC’s defense, and that shocked me. So, anything can happen today. Dorsett may have 8 catches and 150 yards and it wouldn’t surprise me.

    JJ, your Cowboys were also victims of a horrible call. At a key moment in the game on 3rd down, a dubious (well, that’s an understatement) illegal use of the hands call was made against the Cowboys that extended the Rams’ drive. They went on to score on that drive. If there is one thing I hate in hockey, basketball, football, and soccer it’s ticky-tack officiating. My motto would be to refrain from blowing the whistle or throwing a flag unless it’s egregious. Penalties slow down the pace of games and can be deciding factors, which is truly unfortunate.

  17. the bug hit me for a few days not weeks, so I am guessing we had something else. I hope you guys feel better soon.
    In terms of yesterdays football games
    The afc game for sure was KC, they were the better team. With that said their defense shut out the colts offense, and the colts beat themselves in many ways which the patriots won’t. Bill has probably been looking at the chargers but already in his head been thinking ahead. KC has spots the patriots and chargers can exploit. I am not sure out of the teams that are left who could defeat the NFC teams in the superbowl. I do wish the patriots were not so cheap and let both amondola and cooks leave, I think that will bit us in the but.

  18. Joshua the other bad call in that game when Cowboys were driving blowing the play dead when the official thought Dak was wrapped up. He was not. It had some similarities to Giants Patriots first Super Bowl when it looked like Eli Manning was wrapped up but the whistle never blew and he completes the pass to David Tyre.
    The call you mentioned there punting only down 13-6 and Cowboys score there brand new game.

    1. If I had my way none of those apps would be able to put snowfall amounts beyond 3 days in advance.

      It is the most useless thing that an app has. and it doesn’t even serve the purpose of being ready just in case. I can say the same thing about every event more than 3 days in advance: “be ready for nothing and be ready for a foot plus”. Here’s an idea: always be ready for any scenario. then don’t put the information out there and it will avoid all of those type sites doing what they do every time. I think it’s a great idea. 🙂

      1. As you know, I like seeing amounts. I know they change. I’d bet the vast majority also knows this. It’s the few on social media who make it seem as if it is the majority. Playing to them bothers me more than early predictions. You can’t fix stupid…..which of course does not apply to our own dr stupid.

        1. Yep. I figured you would chime in here and I agree. My issue is there is so much stupid out there in order for my message to get to many I have to shovel it out of the way and the wind drifts it right back over my path. 😉

          1. It won’t work. If they don’t know by now they don’t want to know. Would bother me to dumb things down for the majority who don’t need it.

          2. You say the wind drifts it back. I say it’s more like a plow coming by after you’ve finished shoveling the end of the driveway lol

            1. My youngest gives me a look every time I pay attention to social media views. She is wise. Oh, and of three, the one most like her mother 😈

  21. Whatever the scenario turns out to be I’m really hoping for clear sky next Sunday night for a spectacular sky event.

    1. Based on Barry’s thoughts this morning, the only sky event will be snowflakes and LOTS of them. 😉

      Is the event natural (moon, stars, etc.) or man made (satellite)? 🙂

            1. That would be special. I don’t suppose it would be early enough for kids to watch. Although, there is no school the next day

  24. 3-2-1 – weather twitter is about to explode with the 12z ECMWF which delivers a nice reasonable swath of 30-40″ of snow across SNE next Sunday.

    1. Yes because we know how perfect the snow algorithm is on that model. never mind that it probably has the low in the completely wrong position. 🙂

    1. Weather (heh) or not – armchair meteorologists champing at the bit to call for the first blizzard.

    1. They never learn. 🙂

      I’ve been predicting all week that the Patriots would score 41 points in this game only to get laughed at repeatedly. 😉

      Of course I did say the chargers would have 35 and the game would end in overtime. But we still have an entire second half to go so we’ll see…..

          1. I sure hope so as I’m rooting for them . I said this game was going to be tough ( surprised so far ) I said the pats needed to play big so far huge . I’m nervous still going into second half

    3. I’m a bit confused, Dr S…..I admit to only looking quickly but I think only one person said definitely the pats would lose.

    1. Hoping it is CORRECT! Yeah, I know, a little much in the hope department, but
      what the hell. Nothing to lose.

  30. The PATS WIN!! 35-7,

    Oh wait, that’s only the 1/2 time score! WOW!!!!

    This is about as good as Brady has ever looked and against a decent team as well.
    NICE! Early reports of Brady’s demise were false.

    1. Early reports have his demise have been ongoing for a few seasons and every one of them has been full of shit, Dave. 🙂 The time will come when it’s the end, but the end isn’t here yet. Enjoying every moment, win or lose. 🙂

      1. The country wants it. The talking heads in our area were saying this is it. I had a discussion with an individual who favors the pats before whw was born. He said maybe another year. Then.

  32. Answer to yesterday’s AccuWeather Trivia Quiz.

    Which is not the name of a real town?

    A. Snowflake, AZ
    B. Hurricane, UT
    C. Frostproof, FL
    D. Weathervane, VT

    The correct answer is D.

  33. From Pete B
    This is a snapshot of Friday (1/18) night’s weather map. The cold gets here before the storm. It’s not going to end pretty. Either ice or big snow next weekend for many of us (Cape/Island exception).

  34. Happy to say I was very wrong about the Pats today. Didn’t get to see much of the game but honestly I don’t know how they pulled off such a performance. Up 35-7 at halftime? They haven’t done anything like that all year. Coaching and experience I guess. Onto the next one.

    Had about 1.5″ of snow today here in south-central NJ. Easily eclipsed Logan’s seasonal total 😉

    1. Balanced offense and a hungry motivated Defense. It very much looked like early 2000 teams. Chargers never got a running game going.

    2. Your analysis was honest. They do have a history of surprising us.

      It was indeed a great game…but they are all great. LA had an off day. We’ve sure had them as well. For me, congratulations are due to both teams for making it this far.

    3. My 2 reasons given for being confident in the Pats today were 1) air temperature and 2) playoff experience. I don’t think 1 was that much of a factor overall but 2 definitely was.

  35. Too many media are talking in absolutes for next weekend. Bad idea. This hurts them when it doesn’t turn out the way they say 5 to 7 days in advance…

    Score prediction today was: Patriots 41 Chargers 35.
    Final score today was: Patriots 41 Chargers 28.
    Not too bad??? Only gotten 2 games correct this post season so far.

    1. Here’s an absolute:
      The Patriots are Playing the Chiefs in Kansas City, MO next Sunday with a
      6:40 PM kick off, barring the end of the world or other national disaster.

    2. For the record, I hate when Mets speak in terms of absolutes.
      I don’t mind something like: It looks like snow for next weekend, we need
      to watch it. as opposed to: Blizzard next weekend. Begin preparations.

  36. The 18z GFS looks interesting in SNE for Thursday 1/18. I believe TK had mentioned a possible snow event on that day? Not sure if that’s the evolution he was looking for but there’s definitely been some strong trends in that period in the past 48 hours. Low amplitude zonal flow which guidance tends to not handle well. No way you’re gonna get a big storm out of that setup, but a lighter event could be possible.

      1. As long as Logan gets its first inch. I’m starting to get sick of the tv mets keep showing that graphic over and over. 😉

    3. I knew what you meant. And yes just a couple days ago no models had a system for 1-18. My forecast for that was based on the a.m.e. method. I’m doing the same with the threat that comes after, but I still didn’t have a strong feeling which errors were going to be made as of the writing of today’s blog. 😉

  37. And for the weekend… that is a complex evolution. The consistent signal for very strong moisture flow with that system is interesting and worth watching. But there’s so many options on the table, and what happens Thursday night-Friday will probably influence that. It has potential to be a significant snow event somewhere, but no idea where. Strong Canadian high to the north tends to dissuade me from favoring anything that would bring a low to our west.

    1. Agree. Very complex. My envisioning of it has been split between 2 pieces of energy or 2 low centers, one that sneaked west of us earlier in the weekend and one suppressed to the south after that. But just as easily I can see a main system (1 instead of 2), tracking “somewhere” but I’d favor a trend south and east with upcoming model runs. From a meteorology standpoint it will be fun to watch how are electronic forecasting guide tries to show this as we go forward in time.

      1. The arctic front that some are showing as the stage setter for snow is what could very prevent the significant snow from getting into SNE. That front will make it cold enough to snow but the blocking high should grade a bit toward more due north instead of northeast of New England effectively creating a southward suppression of the precipitation field which could be somewhat flatter than currently modeled as the punch east of the cold NNW flow behind the front acts as a push east for the for the system which may have it tropical moisture from the southern stream somewhat dispersed in that cold flow from the NNW.

    2. I think our overall trend from here on will be to push this thing further south and east. Am I confident in that? No. Not yet. 😉

      1. Shhhhhh or we will induct you into the the Debbie Downer Hall of Fame….

        That being said, there probably isn’t one person who reads this blog that thinks anything other than that.

        Just let us enjoy looking at the maps for a day as that might
        be the highlight of the entire Winter. 😎 😎 😎

        4. Look at them all you want. 🙂

          I’m still going to opine. 🙂 It’s what I do best. 😉

  44. Good evening, everyone.
    Mrs. OS and Tom, I hope you’re feeling better real soon. Tom, I know how hard it to take a sick day when you’re a teacher! Most days when you’re not feeling well, it’s best trying to get through the day. But there does come a point. Three-day weekend, amigo to regroup!

    I have to laugh. My students keep showing me their weather apps with the big snowflake on a particular day, telling me we’re going to have a snow day this day or next week! I keep telling them about this blog and that you can’t trust a winter forecast past three days!
    My seniors are having “senior moments” and are angry that they don’t have any snow days yet. Seniors graduate before the rest of us would have to make up any days at the end of the school year.
    I have “senior moments,” but they don’t have anything to do with the Class of 2019. 🙂

  45. On another note – I was just looking at the accuweather 90 day forecast for my zip code.
    Considerable cloudiness, a little rain in the morning (less than .10) then a spot shower in the afternoon. High of 64 and low of 42. Wind ENE at 4 gusting to 8. That is some wizard like precision!

  46. This is where I disagree with Vicki. Most people don’t discern what they are looking at and hearing. Public will see a computer model output with 30″ and lock on that and keep coming back for updates and the media will feed it to them. It has been pretty clear for 5 days that today was not going to have snow in SNE but there were people who were surprised it didn’t snow for today’s game in Foxboro. Reason why – media hit on it last Sunday and kept telling people they are watching a storm for Sunday right up until Friday.

    1. Disagreeing is what makes the world go round and I respect that. I don’t understand how misinterpreting multiple mentions that this may happen confuses folks but that is their right too

      I try to stay positive. For me…and I understand not for everyone….many posts here seem to be finding fault with others. I try not to do that…and often fail miserably…so sure cannot fault others for doing the same.

      Sometimes staying positive is a struggle; so for me and me alone I need to move from negatives for at least a while. I do love whw and the folks here.

      My biggest wish is a blizzard for JPD and others and that everyone can just enjoy it if it happens…..no, when it happens

  47. Twitter and TV Mets are posting the snowier scenario for ratings on twitter. Regardless of how they preference it. Sad. All about ratings and zero about accuracey.

  48. MJO continues to be a puzzling wildcard in figuring out the pattern. It was heading into favorable phase 8 potentially (if one is used to seeing it act typically) into favorable phases 1 & 2 (if you like snow), but has suddenly, as I mentioned may be the case, dropped to neutral and is now forecast by the wishy-washy models to re-emerge in weak phases 4 & 5. It may eventually head back toward 6 7 8 but in weak mode yet again. No sign of it being a major player in its typical way any time soon.

    1. gfs is showing around an inch of liquid and with the temperatures around 12 to 15 inches to 1 inch. Snow maps on the models are so off.

    3. GFS with two more east coast storms on the 25th and 29th and a big trough setting up in the eastern half of the US. Active pattern upcoming!

  51. Here is the 00z Monday January 7 GFS forecast for 06z Monday January 14: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2019010700&fh=168

    Here is the 00z Monday January 14 GFS forecast for 06z Monday January 14: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2019011400&fh=6

    Don’t hang your hat on tonight’s run forecast valid one week from now. 😉

    1. Of course, but I’d be surprised if we escaped without some sort of impact from this one.

      For curiosity, I looked at the 0z Euro run from 5 days ago for now and it matches up very closely, perhaps a tick south with the low and precip shield from what it was projecting. I would have looked 7 but could only go back 5 days with my service.

      We are 6 days out now. Getting into that mid range where the Euro is usually pretty good. We’ll see if it holds serve.

  54. At least a half dozen messages tonight from people asking me if we’re really getting 2-3 feet of snow next Sunday because they saw a forecast for it on TV.

    My head hurts. 😛

  55. Noticing the CMC didn’t have much of a system at all for Friday and it ended up a huge cutter and all rain event for SNE. The models with the more robust Friday system tend to be further south/east with the Sunday storm. What happens with that first system is likely to impact the second.

  58. No meteorologist, television or otherwise should ignore the winter weather potential Friday or Sunday. They both have potential to be different in evolution than currently modeled. I suspect Friday to be a bit more robust with moisture than currently depicted by most and then some colder, flatter waves to develop, but all options remain viable. No one should be close minded and be open to an array of various outcomes.

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