Sunday Forecast

51 Comments

11:46AM

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 18-22)
Muggy and buggy. Lots of humidity, and bugs, doing their late season thing. So last night a line of thunderstorms coming out of NY held together much longer than I expected and made it into northeastern MA and even the Boston area as it was finally falling apart. I consider this a big forecast miss, but one I’ll learn from, I assure you. Moving forward, today will be similar to yesterday in that there will be some pop up showers/storms possible, and this evening we may again be tracking a more organized line approaching from the west (will monitor), but it will also be warmer and more humid than yesterday. This is going to lead us to a short stretch of hot weather the first part of the coming week, hottest Monday, then down a slight bit for Tuesday and Wednesday, while humidity stays up, and thunderstorm chances, while lower, will still be there Monday-Tuesday, before going up Wednesday and part of Thursday as a cold front approaches and enters the region. This front looks slow to me, and it may take until the end of Thursday to clear the region.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Isolated afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Humid. Highs 80-87. Wind S up to 10 MPH.
TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. A shower or thunderstorm possible, especially north and west of Boston. Patchy fog. Humid. Lows 62-69. Wind light S.
MONDAY: Partly cloudy. Isolated afternoon thunderstorms. Humid. Highs 87-94. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Humid. Lows 65-72. Wind light SW.
TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated afternoon thunderstorms. Humid. Highs 87-94. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Humid. Lows 66-73. Wind light SW.
WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Scattered afternoon thunderstorms. Humid. Highs 84-91. Wind SW 10-20 MPH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Showers/thunderstorms likely. Patchy fog. Humid. Lows 67-74. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY: Variably cloudy. Scattered showers/thunderstorms, favoring southern and eastern areas. Humid. Highs 82-89. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 23-27)
High pressure builds in with a pleasant, dry air mass for August 23-24, followed by a warm-up and increase in humidity August 25-27 as the high slips to the south and east. The only precipitation threat I see this far out as an isolated shower/thunderstorm threat by August 27.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 28-SEPTEMBER 1)
Oh no September 1 appears on my blog! Winter’s coming! Kidding aside, we’ll be in a warm late summer pattern with high pressure off the Eastern Seaboard and plenty of warmth, late summer humidity, and an increasing risk for showers/thunderstorms at times as a boundary to the north and west gets a little closer. I don’t think we’ll be going into a stretch of wet weather then, just increasing the chance of activity compared to the previous 5-day period.

51 thoughts on “Sunday Forecast”

  4. Longshot, I loved yesterday’s quizzes. I knew both, but I usually DQ myself from direct weather ones. Sometimes I’ll answer the others. šŸ™‚

          1. Oh, I didn’t realize that and sorry to hear.

            It is not really near the T, except a bus line.
            It is right on one of the MBTA bus lines, I think
            one that is out of the Main Quincy center stop
            on the red line.

            https://imgur.com/a/3JlIukX

      2. Is the ice cream store still open at lower mills was it the ice cream smith . Had it all the time when we lived there .

  5. Thanks, TK. Glad you had double the adventure!

    Thanks as well, Longshot, as always, for the trivia quizzes! Keep ’em coming!!!

  6. According to Barry:

    1. Tropics may get active within 1-2 weeks.
    2. Low humidity late Thursday through next Sunday.

    Is Sunday too much to ask TK? You want to rush the HHH back sooner. I will have my first weekend off in a year. Next Monday please?

    1. I didn’t rush any HHH back. I said there would be a gradual increase in warmth and humidity starting on August 25. I still believe that. In other words, dew points in the middle 50s on August 24 may increase to the upper 50s to lower 60s by late August 25.

  7. AccuWeather Quizzes.

    1) On this date in 1955, which hurricane hit New England causing massive flooding?

    A. Anne
    B. Bonnie
    C. Carol
    D. Diane

    2) Which hurricane slammed into New England on August 19, 1991?

    A. Bob
    B. Carol
    C. Gloria
    D. Nick

    Answers later today.

  9. hmm looks like something popping along the sea breeze front???
    79 at the airport, 85 here after briefly touching 90 at 2:04 PM.

  10. Just got out of the ocean here along the south coast of RI. Very comfortable water temps about 75Ā°.

  11. 18Z HRRR wants unload 2 inches of rain on Boston tomorrow, with virtually NOTHING
    today. We shall see.

  14. Looks like a decent cell popping just to my south by union ct. sun is out here but can hear continuous thunder. Bunch of lightning with this

    1. On to my south may be headed here. It is warned. I quickly started grill. I had been stalling on dinner until I got a lightning warning nearby

  15. I went to light my grill but waited a bit. Seemed to be building northward at one point. I may be in the clear, but you on the other hand Vicki may not. Hope you can get you bbq in before.

    1. Bbq is in. With was just shrimp on the Barbie so quick. And wow. It is a great recipe. It seems the cell Will skirt just under us but there is a lot of thunder in distance

    1. We are sunny why that (see pic) literally slides below us to the east. Did I mention our area is warned. This will have to go the extra mile if this is warned and the one last week was not.

      1. Darned cell to our north seems to have been the reason this was diverted east. Did I mention we are warned šŸ˜ˆ

  17. Wow great pic!! Missed that one but more off to the west, may arrive just as we lose the suns heat. Will see. Enjoy your shrimp šŸ™‚

  18. I am of the opinion that the National Weather Service is over issuing severe thunderstorm warnings on a routine basis lately.

    1. Or under. I honestly believe it is better to over than under ESPECIALLY since there is the potential for tornado in many warned areas.

      1. There were no tornado potentials in any of these. Not enough shear. And there were pretty much no severe weather reports from any of the warned storms. Myself and all of my colleagues share the same opinion on this. They are over-warning.

        1. I do know that. But Iā€™m the one that went by here a weekish ago had rotation questioned by a few here and a couple of Mets

  19. Looking at radar it looks like a line of thunderstorms forming over Hudson River Valley of NY. There is a severe thunderstorm warning near Poughkeepsie NY. Will see what happens as this line moves eastward.

    1. One I recall because it was MacS birthday and he spent a good portion bailing water that was coming into attic. The other I remember because water was coming in floor of our rented summer home and Humarock and my dad has our only car in Boston for work so nearby friends had to rescue us. Well maybe it was then or carol šŸ™‚

  21. Sorry Vicki just read your post. Grill contained pork chops with a dry rub, marinaded wings and am currently sitting in a very light rain shower out side with the family making sā€™mores with Pizzelles instead of Graham crackers by the fire pit. Enjoying the boys last week of summer vacation.. šŸ˜‰

  22. I’ll reiterate. When there are virtually NO severe reports for THAT MANY severe thunderstorm warnings, they are over-warning. Ask any meteorologist if they agree. Most will.

    1. May well be true. But….Remember the one that was not warned a year ago that had a confirmed tornado though here. It is why I will continue to question the lack of warning.

  23. This is from the NWS web page…

    *************
    Severe Thunderstorm Warning
    This is issued when either a severe thunderstorm is indicated by the WSR-88D radar or a spotter reports a thunderstorm producing hail one inch or larger in diameter and/or winds equal or exceed 58 miles an hour; therefore, people in the affected area should seek safe shelter immediately. Severe thunderstorms can produce tornadoes with little or no advance warning. Lightning frequency is not a criteria for issuing a severe thunderstorm warning. They are usually issued for a duration of one hour. They can be issued without a Severe Thunderstorm Watch being already in effect.
    Like a Tornado Warning, the Severe Thunderstorm Warning is issued by your National Weather Service Forecast Office (NWFO). Severe Thunderstorm Warnings will include where the storm was located, what towns will be affected by the severe thunderstorm, and the primary threat associated with the severe thunderstorm warning. If the severe thunderstorm will affect the nearshore or coastal waters, it will be issued as the combined product–Severe Thunderstorm Warning and Special Marine Warning. If the severe thunderstorm is also causing torrential rains, this warning may also be combined with a Flash Flood Warning. If there is an ampersand (&) symbol at the bottom of the warning, it indicates that the warning was issued as a result of a severe weather report.
    After it has been issued, the affected NWFO will follow it up periodically with Severe Weather Statements. These statements will contain updated information on the severe thunderstorm and they will also let the public know when the warning is no longer in effect.

    Severe Thunderstorm Watch
    This is issued by the National Weather Service when conditions are favorable for the development of severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. A severe thunderstorm by definition is a thunderstorm that produces one inch hail or larger in diameter and/or winds equal or exceed 58 miles an hour. The size of the watch can vary depending on the weather situation. They are usually issued for a duration of 4 to 8 hours. They are normally issued well in advance of the actual occurrence of severe weather. During the watch, people should review severe thunderstorm safety rules and be prepared to move a place of safety if threatening weather approaches.

    A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is issued by the Storm Prediction Center in Norman, Oklahoma. Prior to the issuance of a Severe Thunderstorm Watch, SPC will usually contact the affected local National Weather Service Forecast Office (NWFO) and they will discuss what their current thinking is on the weather situation. Afterwards, SPC will issue a preliminary Severe Thunderstorm Watch and then the affected NWFO will then adjust the watch (adding or eliminating counties/parishes) and then issue it to the public by way of a Watch Redefining Statement. During the watch, the NWFO will keep the public informed on what is happening in the watch area and also let the public know when the watch has expired or been cancelled.
    ****************

    If you read those, it’s clear to see they are UNDER-issuing watches, and OVER-issuing warnings. There is a disconnect here. Watches are handled by the SPC. Warnings are handled by the local offices. Something isn’t working the way it’s supposed to work. And it’s time to re-evaluate it.

    I think that watches should be able to be issued by individual offices for the areas they cover, and they can be issued more liberally when conditions can support severe storms. This would probably cut down on the number of warnings for individual storms.

    My colleague calls these “cya” warnings. You can figure out what “cya” stands for. I get why they do it, but it’s having a negative impact.

  24. Iā€™ve made some comments in the past about my thoughts on severe warnings; I wonā€™t rehash it all, but as Iā€™ve said before itā€™s a very delicate balance between preparedness and over-saturation. You run into very similar arguments as you do in the school closing debates during winter. Severe thunderstorms *are* supposed to have a set criteria, but there are certain cases (not all cases!), especially in this part of the country, where you may want to warn for less than the hard thresholds.

    Next month, Iā€™ll be traveling to the National Weather Center in Norman, OK for a one week workshop that serves as the culmination of the ā€œRadar Applications Courseā€ that Iā€™ve been working through (in terms of online and in-office training) for a couple months. Iā€™ll basically be doing a week of simulation exercises based on past events. Once I complete that, Iā€™ll be able to issue convective warnings. Iā€™m really looking forward to it; of course, by the time Iā€™m done, the convective season for this year will be winding down. Still, itā€™ll be nice to occasionally have the chance to work radar going forward. Obviously there are many other roles to be filled during severe weather operations, but my office is good about letting everyone rotate through different responsibilities.

    1. TK and I were chatting offline. I think we found common ground

      I explained my concern is for the lack of a warning resulting in something serious. I didnā€™t see a need for a warning here tonight. I definitely saw a need for one here a week or so ago, especially since several saw potential rotation in the system.

      My view is better to warn …to ere on the side of caution. Your school. Losing s are an excellent example.

      Your workshop sounds fascinating. I truly look forward to hearing more.

  25. Tk me and you actually had this discussion before on fb ( New england storm chasers group) and i ageee with you here hundred percent. That storm barely looks to barely even make the criteria a special weather statement yet alone a STW. I u understand if they did a special weather statment.

    And vicki i agree with you about issuing a tornado warning even if the storm shows very slight rotation. better to be safe than sorry there. But over issuing STWa could lead a crying wolf situation for the future.

    Btw the last thing i expected when i saw that warning was 60 mph winds and quarter size hail but the general public wouldn’t know that and not take it seriously next time. I have been under STW PLENTY of times where non of those criteria were even met. I know what to look for in the radar but as i stated, the general non-weather enthusiasts people wouldn’t know that and take that warning literally.

    1. Good comment. I explained to TK that this is twice in a year that worry me. One rotation seen but absolutely no warning of any kind. And one where there was a confirmed tornado.

      I know there was no need for a warning in Sutton tonight. Again my point. But as you said, the average person has no real idea of warning parameters. So over warning wonā€™t have an impact. Under will if God forbid there is a serious end result

Comments are closed.