Monday Forecast

43 Comments

7:14AM

DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 30-OCTOBER 4)
This final day of September, much like a good portion of the month, will be another fair weather day under high pressure. However, as we enter October, we’re going to change things up a bit over the first several days, with a warm front crossing the region Tuesday, bringing a spike of warm and somewhat more humid air into the area, followed by a cold front which will turn Wednesday into an “upside down” temperature day along with a rain shower threat. This front will introduce significantly cooler air, the coolest of the young autumn season so far, and a wave of low pressure moving along it as it slows down just south of here will bring a period of chilly rain later Thursday to early Friday, before it starts to dry out later Friday.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 60-67. Wind variable to E up to 10 MPH.
TONIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows 50-57. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.
TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Risk of brief light rain through midday. More humid. Highs 70-77. Wind S 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers. Humid. Lows 60-67. Wind SW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers. Humid turning to damp. Highs 70-77 morning, then falling afternoon. Wind W 10-20 MPH morning, shifting to N from north to south during the morning and early afternoon.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 46-53. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY: Cloudy. Rain arriving west to east. Highs 53-60. Wind E 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Overcast. Rain likely. Patchy fog. Lows 48-55. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.
FRIDAY: Overcast with rain tapering off morning. Breaking clouds afternoon. Highs 55-62. Wind N 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 5-9)
High pressure will dominate with great weather for the October 5-6 weekend, starting very chilly with many areas running risk of frost early October 5, then moderating later in the weekend. Early next week looks warm to start, a cold front passing by with showers, then a cooler shot of air, but timing is uncertain.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 10-14)
Overall pattern much the same, drier than average, up and down temperatures.

43 thoughts on “Monday Forecast”

  1. I normally share SAK’s blog at this time, but in case you didn’t catch his reminder last week, it will be done this afternoon as he is traveling this morning. I’ll share it around mid afternoon when I get back from my own local traveling!

  3. Good morning and thank you TK. I made through Sept without having to wear
    a jacket on any day. So, good-bye September, it was nice knowing you. Hello
    October, what will you bring?

      1. You sure? You’d be surprised what my tolerance level is
        for temperature. ๐Ÿ™‚ ๐Ÿ™‚

        I’ll let you know. Temp had better be in the 30s when I depart
        for work. If its 40s, screw the jacket!!!

        1. Ok, perhaps not necessary in the AM, but PM temps don’t rise much, so “perhaps” I’ll thrown on a light jacket and you will have been correct. ๐Ÿ™‚
          If not work, it would just be a sweatshirt.

        2. I had the same thought. I donโ€™t wear a jacket in dead of winter unless Iโ€™m going to be out for an extended period of time and then I usually leave unzipped or take off because Iโ€™m too hot

          1. Since I get around via T only, I always wear my light jacket on โ€œcoolishโ€ days like today. Lately even on warm/muggy days first thing in the morning I put on the jacket but carry it on the way home. I am usually out the door by 6:00 AM.

            I get the impression that I am the first here on WHW to leave for work every morning. ๐Ÿ˜‰

  6. If you happen to be Facebook friends with me then go check out the video I just posted. This is one of the reasons I love Pete.

    1. Can you post here….it is definitely cause for celebration. I donโ€™t care how far off it is, nice to think we may get rid of these buggers. But experience has taught me it usually takes two killing frosts.

  8. Number of hours of dew point 70 or higher at Boston…

    September 2018: 75
    September 2019: 0

    Slight difference? ๐Ÿ˜‰

  9. This was one of the best Septembers we have had in a couple years. Some warm days but also some nice cool crisp days and even a morning where there was a touch of frost where I live. I hope that AMO shift TK talked about last week happens and will be having cooler falls starting soon.

  12. Meanwhile, Minneapolis today had a high dewpoint of 72F with a heat index of 90F at 4PM this afternoon. Highest dewpoint ever recorded this late in the year.

  13. This is pretty consistent with what you mentioned yesterday TK….

    Eric Fisherโ€๏€ฒVerified account๏‚™ @ericfisher ยท 56m56 minutes ago

    Guidance suggesting there won’t be a rapid push into colder times for most of the Lower 48. More of a step-down with warmer conditions fighting back at times through October.

    SE probably just going to keep baking

    https://twitter.com/ericfisher/status/1178796093926187014

      1. That post was from this PM and the Euro EPS charts were from last nights 0z run but you’re right, more of the same as what he has been saying.

        I would caution the use of these longer range projections from the Euro weeklies….the week 3 and 4 forecasts have been rather putrid lately. Wouldnt shock me though if the flip to more sustained cooler is indeed a “step down” process. That is pretty typical for October!

  15. Thank you, TK.

    The step-down to cooler makes sense in most of the Lower 48. I would not, however, say that we’ll “bake” in October. Even on relatively warm October days I believe the word bake is not apt.

    Jessye Norman died at 74. Again, way too young. I am not a fan of opera. But, I do know that Ms. Norman could sing like the very best opera singer, and did it with the very best orchestras on the world’s biggest stages.

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