Tuesday Forecast

61 Comments

7:30AM

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 18-22)
Low pressure tracks from the Great Lakes down the St. Lawrence Valley today, which will be the only unsettled day of this 5-day period. Precipitation with this system will be mainly rain, only starting as snow with minor accumulation in limited locations northwest of Boston. High pressure from Canada delivers a shot of cold air for midweek, which then eases late in the week as the high slips off to the south.
TODAY: Becoming cloudy. Precipitation arrives west to east by midday as rain except snow with minor accumulation Worcester Hills and southwestern NH before changing to rain. Highs 37-42 except 42-47 South Coast. Wind SE 5-15 MPH, higher gusts especially coastal areas.
TONIGHT: Cloudy evening with rain ending west to east. Clearing overnight. Lows 32-39. Wind W 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.
WEDNESDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 40-47 morning, falling into the 30s afternoon. Wind W to NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 15-22. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY: Sunny. Highs 28-35. Wind N up to 10 MPH.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 10-17. Wind N under 10 MPH.
FRIDAY: Sunny. Highs 32-39. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 22-29. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 40-47. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 23-27)
Fair, milder February 23 with high pressure to the south of the region. Low pressure makes a run at the region later February 24 into February 25 but with mild air around rain is favored. Turning colder thereafter with another low bringing a threat of precipitation with mix/snow favored by the end of the period, depending on the track of the system.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 28-MARCH 3)
Colder, mainly dry weather expected much of this period, though a storm system should be passing to the south of the region at some point.

61 thoughts on “Tuesday Forecast”

  2. Ok, I get it. Headlines. Attention grabbers. Clicks. Ratings. Etc. Whatever.
    But this is over the top…

    It was a cluster / line of powerful thunderstorms with heavy rain, strong wind gusts, and frequent lightning, as well as hail in some locations. Sort of like what happens every summer, somewhere. This one just happened to cross a big metro area. This is not a “massive superstorm” or an “extreme weather event”, as suggested. It’s a LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS. My goodness. The world doesn’t end every day you know…

    https://sydneynews.sydney/sydney-news/sydney-storm-extreme-weather-event-impacts-city/6272/?fbclid=IwAR2t1-RrnojGM03SCWZBUy7nha9P_tKGd2-19Y9FPuzv7ZbNCxjfmiV4yvA

  10. East wind is really warming things up along the coast.
    Up to 37 in JP and currently it is 39 at the airport.

  11. Thanks TK
    First time in a while the EURO has a run with accumulating snow for SNE. It probably won’t happen but if it does it won’t be one of the least snowiest January February for Boston.

    1. My relatives (who don’t handle snow well) get clobbered and I get OTS. The major cities down there could end up with more snow than Boston (15.1”) has received all season.

      1. Hahaha. Your first mistake was looking after you saw the snow flakes. I haven’t looked so in my minds eye it is still snowing…..looks lovely 😉

  18. For the first time since December, I think we have a legitimate “watch” period beginning late next week at least into early March. Some long range chances starting to reappear on the models, EPO going negative, and the AO and NAO finally tanking from their record levels. It’s no real strong signal but a less hostile environment than we have been seeing much of Jan and Feb for sure.

    I realize I am on an island with these thoughts but we’ll see…

  20. The wintery scene up at Stowe this AM. 19 days in a row now of snow somewhere in New England…impressive run for this “non-winter” like pattern we have been in.

    Tim Kelley NBC10 Boston
    @TimNBCBoston
    2h

    snow’n and BLOW’N northern VT
    yet – surprise -The Gondola is spinning.. bonus
    the wind-ometer up there can get crazy
    Day 19 in a row w snow falling somewhere in New England

    https://twitter.com/TimNBCBoston/status/1229782953158422529?s=20

  21. Plenty of time for that 990 low to shift south east on the 12z EURO a week from Thursday. 12z CMC has a storm to but comes right at us for same time frame.

    2. That’s pretty much been the mean storm track this winter hasn’t it? No reason to bet against it IMHO.

      Bring spring

    1. Amazing not that far away. And in the scale of things, the distance isn’t even worth talking about. nature “doesn’t know” it’s off by 100 miles for us.

  24. In mild winters like this one SNE isn’t nearly as mild as a place just 330 miles from here: Washington DC. It’s 57F and sunny right now. I’ve been checking the weather there and the differential has been between 10 and 22 degrees almost every day this winter. Cherry blossoms will be early this year. Probably ready to bloom right now.

  26. Thanks TK. A springtime spectacular 63F here in the Mount Holly, NJ area right now. Short sleeves day for sure!

      1. It’s the ensemble mean….that is showing the mean MSLP for all 51 Euro ensemble members of the 12z Euro operational run for the storm system late next week.

          1. Low track is in a good spot fwiw. Keep in mind the MSLP on a long range ensemble mean always shows a weaker low pressure because it is averaging so many members including very weak ones and ones that essentially have no storm at all.

          2. If the track is due east or east-northeast we are in business. Otherwise it’s the same old same old quick snow to rain or all rain. Just my 1c.

            1. Not necessarily. 1) It would depend on WHERE it was precisely, and 2) Do you remember the cutter that gave us a widespread 3-6 inches of snow earlier this season? 🙂

  28. WxWatcher, as mentioned above it’s this season – late February to mid May – that the differentials in temperature (and weather generally) between Massachusetts and places as close as 200 miles south are very impressive. Today’s an example of that. I do spring time conferences in New Jersey, and am always surprised at how different everything looks in March and April in, say, Bedminster, NJ, and Boston, MA. Night and day in terms of vegetation, temperature, and overall feel. I mentally prepare myself for a non-existent spring in Boston, well, with occasional teases. There will be plenty of days in March, April, and even May, that will feel colder than some days in January and February this year.

    1. Yes, Spring is the cruelest season of them all. Can be truly nice, but more often than not, it is miserable. That’s how I feel about it anyway.

      1. From 495 westward, spring is nice if not great. From 495 east to Boston and se to Cape, miserable! Of course HHH takes over everyone eventually into the summer.

    2. I’m still getting used to the climatology, but last year it was shocking to me how many March-May days we had that were 60-80 degrees while SNE was more like 40-50 degrees at the same time. Definitely one of those days today though 60+ in mid-February is not particularly common even here.

  29. Once we get this minor weather system out of the way, looks like dry weather through the weekend. Classic cold/dry pattern. Also a great setup for a Southeast US snowstorm; likely to be a biggie, at least by regional standards, for parts of VA and/or the Carolinas later this week.

    Big spike higher (~7%) in the natural gas markets today, continuing a recent short term bullish run after being absolutely crushed by the warmth for most of this winter. Likely in response to some of the latest ensemble data for the 10-15 day period, and potentially a reaction to the Euro weeklies as well. I’m still pretty skeptical of the sustained cold idea but it is starting to gain some traction from that perspective at least..

    1. That is a really tough forecast for eastern NC. There is a great disparity between the American and International models on this one. NAM and GFS colder and further north with 6-10″ of snow while the Euro and UKMET have essentially no snow and the CMC has very little. Some serious bust potential in those forecasts.

      1. It’s rarely easy down there. Based on pattern recognition alone, at this stage I like the more bullish solutions. Could easily see some 6”+ totals. But bust potential is there for sure.

  30. 12z GFS ensemble mean for the storm threat late next week….

    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs-ens&region=us&pkg=lowlocs&runtime=2020021812&fh=234

    Pretty much agrees with the 12z Euro ensemble mean I posted earlier:

    https://www.americanwx.com/bb/uploads/monthly_2020_02/6DD3B6CE-53A4-4BCE-9495-AB5BCE4A76BD.png.62f9f46e49ad1ba8cf510462747ab39c.png

    Definitely interesting to see how vastly different the GFS operational is than its ensemble mean. The GFS operational (FV3) is showing a cutter while the ensembles (which are still run off the old GFS) are showing a track much farther SE consistent with the Euro and CMC.

  32. Well it is the 6z beyond 200 hours….

    00z and 12z stay there for now.

    My thoughts remain the same. Extended dry periods, more frequent occurrences of colder than average days. Trend after early March will be a return similar to January and February pattern and not an extended return to winter.

    As for the time period around the 27th. At this point I like the colder solutions, but weaker and progressive.

    1. *after early March, a return to the predominant pattern of January and February 2020, further modified by climatology.

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