Thursday Forecast

27 Comments

7:06AM

DAYS 1-5 (APRIL 30-MAY 4)
On this final day of April we look at an overcast day, wet at times, but not a wash-out, as a warm front approaches the region, and look into the start of May which presents a continuation of the current unsettled and cool weather pattern. That front will never make it through the region, but a cold front approaching from the west, becoming an occluded front as it arrives while the warm front is still south of the region, will bring a band of widespread and possibly heavy showers (and potential embedded thunder) during Friday. I’ve had to tweak around the timing on that ribbon of rainfall, as first it looked earlier, then later, and now earlier, so basically morning-midday are the target hours for the heaviest, from west to east, and during the remainder of Friday we should settle into a pattern of more scattered showers. But even after the surface features moves offshore, its parent low will be decaying into a trough that will then have to sink southeastward, the tail of which has to come across New England while upper level low pressure traverses the region on Saturday. So while I don’t expect Saturday to be a rainy day, I do expect scattered showers to be a potential while lots of clouds are present. Improvement is still slated for Sunday, probably not a totally sunny day either but better than Saturday in both sun potential and warmth. Sunday night we’ll already be back into cloudiness from a cold front approaching from the west and that will pass through later at night with a shower threat. The question is whether or not a quick wave of low pressure comes along to enhance rainfall for a portion of Monday. Some guidance says yes, other guidance says no. For the time being, I’m splitting the difference with a wet morning and drier afternoon. But that’s day 5 so there is plenty of time to re-evaluate and tweak it.
TODAY: Cloudy. Periods of rain mostly morning and midday. Highs 47-54. Wind SE 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.
TONIGHT: Cloudy. Showers arriving overnight. Patchy fog. Lows 42-49. Wind SE 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.
FRIDAY: Cloudy with numerous showers and possible thunderstorms morning. Mostly cloudy with scattered showers afternoon. Highs 48-55. Wind in the morning SE-S 10-20 MPH gusting 25-35 MPH interior, 35-45 MPH coastal areas with spot gusts of 50-55 MPH possible South Coast and Cape Cod. Wind in the afternoon shifting to W and decreasing to 10-20 MPH.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Any lingering showers ending. Lows 42-49. Wind W 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.
SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers redeveloping. Highs 53-60. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Decreasing clouds. Lows 41-48. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Highs ranging from near 50 Nantucket and outer Cape Cod to 65-70 interior Massachusetts and southern New Hampshire. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Lows 48-55. Wind W 10-20 MPH.
MONDAY: Cloudy with a chance of rain morning. Variably cloudy with a chance of showers afternoon. Highs 55-62. Wind variable 5-15 MPH becoming NW 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MAY 5-9)
The overall outlook for this 5-day period is for below normal temperatures and a couple opportunities for wet weather.

DAYS 11-15 (MAY 10-14)
A pattern of below normal temperatures is expected to continue but with a drying trend.

27 thoughts on “Thursday Forecast”

    1. Eric F had a tweet yesterday : At Logan, there were 17 days in March that stayed below 50F, in April, we’ve had 16F.

  5. Logan’s monthly temp for this April stands at 44.5F, for March it was 41.8F and for February, it was 37.8F

    So, a minute 2.7F increase over march and a 6.7F increase over February.

    Now, I think Logan’s avg high on Feb 28 is in the low 40s and on April 30th, is in the low 60s, or a +20F difference and we are at +6.7F. Whoopie !!!!!!!

  9. I think you all know I am a model skeptic, but in days where we all want a little hope, the 12z ECMWF op run is as an encouraging run we have had in a while. Tomorrow, rain exits earlier than I thought, maybe as early mid afternoon. Saturday should be mostly dry, albeit breezy, but by Sunday, away from the coast, those breezes should diminish setting up a great day with inland valley temps into the low 70s.

    Also after Friday, the 12z ECMWF over the next 8 days, has only a tenth of inch of rain falls, as each system passes to our south, with dry conditions and temps generally 55-60 until late in the period where we see some rising heights. Its companion lower res control run is less optimistic for next week, but even a blend of the two would give us the driest week we have had in the last 6, but some additional rain, particularly south, with lots of clouds and cool winds.

    The 12z GFS is similar to the 12z ECMWF with a 2″ plus rain storm on way out on Mother’s Day and after a day or two of transition goes into a full fledge 75-85 degree type pattern change by the 14th.

    This is your official all about hope forecast .

    2. Thanks JM!. Even if it doesn’t pan out, I’ve been waiting for someone to come forward with a little hope for a pattern transition. It has not been fun seeing patients outside under windy, dank, and chilly conditions.

  10. As cold as it’s been in March & April, it’s a wonder we didn’t have a significant spring snow event at some point.

  11. Just stepped outside, it feels soupy the air is ready to be rung out. I think we will get some decent rain tonight.

  12. I am the first one to scream about not jumping on one model run, but the 12z was such a ray of new light, I thought I would offer it up in hopes of bringing a smile.

    1. It was kind of rare instance where it was because you could sense where even though the other scenario was possible, why it isn’t going to materialize.

  13. I am so happy to be saying goodbye to this April 2020, both Coronavirus wise and weather-wise. Weather-wise, it was depressing, dreary, awful, dreadful, torturous, brutal and every other negative adjective to describe it.

    May has to be better, doesn’t it?

    I am somewhat heartened by all the summer prognostications I see out there that show the northeast projected to experience above average temperatures. We deserve it after the early spring we’ve experienced. Give me 87F to 88F everyday with dp’s in the mid-upper 50s, so it cools off somewhat at night and I’ll be happy.

    1. I’m definitely not sold on a hot summer, but I am more convinced of a very “normal” one.

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