Winter Preview?

81 Comments

7:55PM

Why not? It’s snowed in October before, and it will again. And all of this snow talk you are hearing today is based on speculation prompted by  meteorologists reading computer models and news directors trying to activate the hype machine.

That said, yes, there are a couple shots of snow, even in the Boston area, before this week is out, but instead of trying to get all technical and then hedging, I’ll just outline briefly what I think is going to cause the weather, and then follow that with an updated forecast based on my best guess at this point. I’ll use this format for the next couple of days and only get detailed on specific events when it’s close enough to be confident enough.

No hype. Here goes…

Tonight… A cold front approaches, and passes the region by dawn. It’s relatively mild ahead of this front, and somewhat dry, so a weakening band of showers is about it for this.

Tuesday… Low pressure wraps up to our northeast, high pressure tries to build in from the west, and between them it will be on the windy side here, but nice, with sun & passing clouds, but a bit of an October chill to the air as it is in the 50s for most of the day.

Tuesday night… The front that goes by tonight will be sitting south of the region through the day then start to drift back toward the north, generating clouds that will move in.

Wednesday… The front remains south of the region and a wave of low pressure moves along it, passing south of New England, and a chance of light rain is the result.

Wednesday night…  Clouds hang in, cold air filters in, but it is mostly dry between low pressure #1 and low pressure #2.

Thursday… Low pressure area #2 moves along the front, this one a bit closer and a bit stronger than the one before it. Rain overspreads the region. Cold air continues to filter in, cold enough to probably start mixing rain with snow in the higher elevations to the northwest of Boston by day’s end.

Thursday night… As long as the precipitation from low pressure #2 does not get really light or move out too quickly, enough cold air will be available to change the rain to snow from northwest to southeast across the area, the exception possibly being the immediate coast and areas south of Boston, which may remain just a little too warm. Even areas that were to go over to all snow would see little in the way of accumulation other than brief coatings on unpaved surfaces. The ground, after 2 very mild months in September & most of October, will be just too warm, so you won’t need to run out and get any ice melt.

Friday… Low pressure #2 moves away, high pressure moves toward the region, and like Tuesday we will have a bright but breezy day, with a chill in the air.

Saturday… Low pressure #3 threatens. And when I say threaten, I mean that I’m not even sure we will even have a #3. Just because 4 of 7 major computer models have a storm for southern New England guarantees nothing. It does mean we should follow it closely, as it should be cold enough to support snow in at least parts of the area if precipitation occurs. This day will be played very generically in the detailed forecast for now.

Sunday… Whatever happens, or doesn’t happen, on Saturday, will be moving away and expect a dry and chilly day.

Monday (Halloween)… Very early call: Dry weather. Cool air.

Details next…………

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. A few rain showers crossing the region from west to east late. Low 44-49. Wind S up to 10 MPH shifting to W.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. High 55-60. Wind W 10-20 MPH and gusty.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds. Low 35-40. Wind W diminishing to 5-10 MPH then shifting to N.

WEDNESDAY: Cloudy. Chance of light rain. High 45-50. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Cloudy. Chance of rain especially in the afternoon. Chance of rain/mix/snow at night. Low 38. High 48.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 29. High 49.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain or snow. Low 32. High 44.

SUNDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 33. High 50.

MONDAY – HALLOWEEN: Variably cloudy. Low 35. High 53.

81 thoughts on “Winter Preview?”

  1. Thanks TK for the update. The weather is certainly not going to be boring tracking the POTENTIAL for some wintry precipitation across parts of SNE and hurricane Rina which strengthed today from a minimal tropical storm to a cateogory 1 hurricane.

    1. There are some signs in the long range, and have been, of a big warmup in the NE 1st week of November and repeating again about 1/3 of the way through the month. No surprise given we remain in the overall warm regime, despite the coming chill this week.

      This is going along with the early part of the scenario layed out by Joe D. & Joe B. at the SNE Wx Conference.

  3. TK, in the previous blog (The Week Ahead) I had a few questions I posted earlier this afternoon regarding what you and the other mets discussed at the conference. When you get a chance, can you answer them please? You can do it in either this current one or that one…whichever you prefer. Thanks in advance. 🙂

    I am keeping my fingers crossed for NO storm for Saturday! TK, do what you can to keep it away from SNE. 🙂

      1. Well I won’t quite go that far…just keep them away until after Thanksgiving. I am going to have quite a bit of raking to do, assuming the leaves come down at all this year. 🙂

        Seriously, there are some trees out there that are just as green and full as they have been all summer.

        1. I would say by thanksgiving we will have plenty to rake, before that. I am in the landscape trade and work in the longwood medical area. the leaves are starting to pickup. Everyday they seem to be falling more.

  4. The NAM is just way too cold at 925MB on Thursday. The ECWMF to me spins #3 far too close to SNE on Saturday for the High Pressure overhead on Friday. I am general going to follow a GFS/GEFS on this one right now with climo adjustments.

  5. TK, are you thinking 70+ temps for those November “warmups”? I still have a feeling that we will be raking leaves into early December especially from Boston south.

    1. The leaves are going to turn (or not turn) real fast and then drop for the most part by mid November, regardless of warm weather that may occur. And I think we will reach or exceed 70 one and possibly 2 more times. Let’s make a couple guesses: November 4 & 9. Someone write that down. See how it works out.

      1. TK- They are dropping. Everyday it picks up more. And thank’s for your focast thoughts. I hope you don’t think I hate snow, I don’t. I just now hate working the long hours that comes with a snowstorm. Yes the money is good and for sure helps out. But I enjoy my family time, like we all do. If we get a good storm say on a friday, it could keep us at work till monday. So you can I hope see why I don’t like a ton of snow, again good money but lost time with my wife and 7 year old.

        1. You can love, like, dislike, or hate snow freely here. Whatever any of us think of it, weather is going to happen. Always appreciate your contribution to the blog, John!

  6. I love the snow but I want to enjoy the fall and be able to get all the leaves raked before the snow starts to fly.
    October snowfalls tend to lead to below normal snowfall as was the case for the 2009-10 winter.

    1. If we got any accumulation it’d be gone in a couple hours anyway.

      And October snow won’t affect any correlations for winter in this pattern. It’s the fact that October has been warm & wet that has more implications for the upcoming pattern for early winter, with strong evidence for a big time flip to cold with above normal snow for December.

  7. Thanks for the clearing that up. I know a lot of people say when you get an accumulating snow in October the winter tends to have below normal snowfall.

    1. It is sometimes the case, based on the average periods of meridional vs. zonal jet stream flow, as well as average cycle of longer term patterns, so basically on long term climatology. The correlation probably only “works” just over 50% of the time.

  9. TK, regarding correlation between October snowfall and the following winter, Pete Bouchard listed all the years since 1979 when it snowed in October and all of those years except one (2000-01 = 45.9″) produced below normal snowfall. The most recent example was in October 2009 = 0.1″ and the snow for that winter season at Logan 2009-10 = 35.7″. IIRC that winter was quite a frustrating one for you mets. I remember the WBZ trolls really gave it to Todd and Barry right after one storm in particular that didn’t pan out with much snow.

    So TK, were those years 1979-2009 part of the 50%?….lol. 🙂

    1. The “just over 50%” includes all the available years of October recordkeeping, not just the 1980s, 1990s, and first decade of the 2000s. That will skew things. There is also the argument as to whether or not “trace” snows should be included in the stat.

  10. Incidentally, I was looking at some old pictures, as well as watching an old videotape of the Woburn Halloween Parade from 1991, which was on October 27. Most of the trees still had leaves on them, and a good amount of them were still at least partially green. Though it’s true that the trees are a little bit behind normal this year, that is only due to the mild September/October pattern.

      1. Based on the photos I have seen through the years, there have been quite a few years that 1 week ahead of Halloween we had most of the leaves still on the trees.

        There have been exceptions. 1988, for example, most of the leaves were down by October 30.

        1. 1988-89 snowfall = 15.5″ (I guess there goes that correlation between trees and season snowfall…lol) 🙂

          Thanks TK for your response in the previous blog! 🙂

          1. I have never believed there was a correlation between leaf drop & snowfall, but perhaps you have found a new correlation. Early leaf drop = below normal snow. 😛

  11. Good luck to anyone heading to Cancun, Mexico the next couple of days and there’s another disturbance in the Carribean that the NHC gives some chance to develop.

  12. Morning runs show no changes for Thursdays storm, only the euro has Sunday’s potential storm at this time.

  13. Just got a chance to get on and post – have been very busy past few days, including a nice visit w/some friends we haven’t seen in awhile up in NH during the wknd. Well, I guess summer is “old news” now and onto winter. My wish to see some snow, I guess, is a good probability later in the week, ‘though, like TK says, won’t accumulate that much due to the mild weather we have had lately. I love all the seasons for what they are, and to me, fall is the best hiking weather. (‘though others might prefer winter, summer, etc.). In any case, we have done a little hiking so far this season, but not as much as my husband’s back isn’t so great. But the little hiking we have done was spectacular – especially in the very early morning – that to me is the best time, when the sun has just come up. The light is so beautiful.

    Anyway, sorry for the lengthy post. TK, Scott, glad you enjoyed the weather conference. I hope to make it next year.

    BTW, did anyone talk about the Springfield tornado at the conference? Or about the Joplin tornado? (just my interest in summer severe weather).

    1. There was talk, and even several photos from the Springfield tornadoes, however I don’t recall much if any talk about the Joplin tornadoes.

  14. Since I was out for the summer, I didn’t get to see any posts about the tornado. Anyway, if you haven’t had the chance, drive out to Brimfield and Monson before the rest of the leaves drop. In some areas, it resembles a moonscape. Never seen anything like it.

    Enjoying the early kick-off to the battling euro/gfs.

  15. Waiting for the 12Z NAM. At this point, I don’t imagine we’ll see much in the way
    of snow in the Boston area. Perhaps a period of light snow late Thursday night, with
    little or no accumulation.

    Sat-Sun storm, seems to have gone poof in the night. (0Z Euro still has it BIG time, but not the others) We’ll see what the 12Z runs show.

    Late yesterday, I was actually excited. Now, well, not so much. We’ll see.

  16. O.S. –Just the residual heat off the city harscaping makes it hard to snow this time of year. I’ll probably see something out here in Holden however. Maybe I’ll trek on up to Wachusett Friday morning the geek that I am.

  17. retrac,

    LOL! Make sure you drive or hike up to the summit to make sure you see as much
    accumulation as possible! Sure to be a few inches or more there.

    re: City
    Perhaps for downtown. I do expect to see something in the way of snow where I am
    in JP. Not much for sure, but something, even if mixing only. Of course if this wave
    tracks just a wee bit farther North, NOT going to happen.

  18. A swot team at Accuweather must have bound, gagged and dragged Margusity into a supplies closet this morning. He’s awfully quiet.

  19. The 12Z Name is in. Not much change. Not expecting much, but there “could” be a mix or changeover to snow somewhere between 7PM and 1AM Thursday night. Just a question of how instense any remaining precip is and how much of the colder air aloft
    can make it down to the surface. We shall see.

  20. Whether or not the weekend storm happens hinges upon Rina’s path. Florida=storm. Cuba=no storm. More later…

  21. 12Z GFS is in. It progs just about the same as the NAM. Only a brief period of meaningful precip with temps aloft cold enough for snow. Perhaps 3 to at most 6 hours. It “may” or “May Not” mix or flip over. Going to be close in the immediate
    Boston area. Much better chance North and West.

  22. Still keeping my fingers crossed for NO storm for Saturday…frankly, I wish we could keep Thursday’s storm away as well, but we can’t have everything. I wouldn’t mind seeing the first “trace” of snow sometime in November before Thanksgiving, but otherwise no accumulating snow until the leaves come down and I can get to raking them up. Shoveling snow with leaves make such a “yucky” combo.

      1. Scott,

        Too bad it is 300 hours out and subject to OH so much change!!
        It will probably be gone with the next run!! LOL!

        Where is that 12Z Euro!

        1. It comes out a few minutes after the start of the 3PM hour, when we push the clocks back an hour, it will be out a few minutes after the start of the 2PM hour.

          It is an active pattern, so we’ll see. Also the AO is showing signs of going negative around the 6th of Nov, and the NAO going slightly negative.

          1. Scott,

            AHH… that explains it. Forgot about DST!
            Because I sure remember it being ready right around 2PM last Winter.

            At least it won’t be boring, no matter what happens.

            btw, All of the 12Z runs to this point have this Weekend’s storm way OTS at one strength or another.

            It will be interesting to see IF the Euro still has it????

    2. A brief flip to the regime for early winter around November 6 was indicated by Joe D. / Joe B. at the SNE Wx Conference. If that run is anywhere near right, so will they be. That flip would be a teaser though, as we’d go milder again for a spell before a more long-lasting regime switch.

  25. It’s good to see that all models are still in agreement with Thursday’s system, although the weekend storm still is questionable.

  27. Tweet from Pete B.
    Good news/bad news. Good: snow accumulation should be light through the night. Bad: accumulation may b heavy with nor’easter on Sat. #7news

    Time to run out for the bread and milk? (LOL)

  28. I think Pete is going with The Farmers’ Almanac calling for stormy conditions between the 28-31st with heavy rain flooding and wet snow to mix in for parts of SNE.

  29. Can anyone speak to climotology on something like this (saturday). So unusual, I don’t know what to think.

  30. 18Z NAM at 60 hours or 1AM Friday morning:

    http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?prevPage=Model&MainPage=index&image=&page=Param&cycle=10%2F25%2F2011+18UTC&rname=SFC-LAYER+PARMS&pname=1000_500_thick&pdesc=&model=NAM&area=NAMER&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&fcast=060&areaDesc=North+America+-+US+Canada+and+northern+Mexico&prevArea=NAMER&currKey=model&returnToModel=&imageSize=M

    The column “should” have cooled sufficiently by this time for this to be SNOW in the Boston area. No?

  31. NWS text discussion re: Thursday-Thursday Night event:

    HOWEVER…BL COOLING SHOULD BEGIN TO BRING A CHANGEOVER
    TO SNOW TO NW HIGHER TERRAIN BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. SNOW LINE
    WILL PROGRESS SWD THU NIGHT AS THE PRECIP GRADUALLY MOVES OFFSHORE
    AND SOME WET SNOW IS POSSIBLE EVEN IN THE BOS-PVD CORRIDOR JUST
    BEFORE THE PRECIP ENDS. PRELIM THINKING ON SNOW ACCUM IS 2-6″ OVER
    HIGH ELEVATIONS OF NORTHERN MA AND S NH…BUT ONLY AROUND AN INCH IN
    THE LOW ELEVATIONS OUTSIDE OF I495 BELT. NO ACCUM BOS-PVD
    CORRIDOR.

    I still think that there “might” be a minor accumulation in the immediate Boston area.
    We shall see.

    Re: Saturday….I have no clue, but gut is indicating a MISS.

  32. 18Z NAM at 84 hours just “seems” to want to do something with all of that moisture
    just off of Florida and a big 500MB vortex moving Eastward. Will it spawn the
    storm at all? Will it be too far off IF it does develop????????

    1. For me, it’s too hard to tell what happens with that moisture at hour 84 of the 18z NAM, but you have to notice the 1024 High that it would have to get by. As always something to watch.

  33. Only giving a 1 on the snow index for Thursday. The farther inland you are and especially up in elevation the better your chances are for seeing some accumulation.
    Saturday just keeping an eye on for now.

  34. Todd put up some “interesting” October snow stats:

    Boston has seen 0.1″+ of snow in October in years 1913, 1979, 2005, and 2009.

    Now for my stats for those following winters:
    1913-14 = 39.4″
    1979-80 = 12.7″
    2005-06 = 39.9″
    2009-10 = 35.7″

    I am not totally sure about this, but so far from what I can tell, when October snows in Boston are no more than a “trace”, the following winters usually have above normal snowfall.

  35. Matt Noyes noted this possibility, so did the 18z GFS, with a possible Norlun Trough setting up for Saturday’s system. Those features can be fun.

  36. The Rina track seems to have shifted slightly to the west. Though the track shows an eventual eastward movement “above” Cuba, the NHC seems to have low confidence about its future direction. Models are all over the place.

    I mention this as a follow up to TK’s comment at 12:08 PM.

  37. Long day !….ok, so I get the idea reading above that Thursday is more definite and the weekend is up in the air as far as a storm. I’m kind of rooting for the weekend storm because we have a camping invite and I’m just not interested in camping in chill or dampness. We wont go if there’s a rain or snow threat.

  39. Hello all!!back from my trip and I have do say Paris is beyond incredible. I have had the fortune over the years to travel to a lot of places and Paris is probably on top of the list!!

    Now on to the weather, to my surprise we are talking snow. I do not think Thursday looks to be much of a big deal here in the Boston area. I do think elevated areas will be dealing with some snow. The Euro still has the system for Sat but it really digs a trough that I just don’t buy into at this point and it also does not have much support from the other models but all can change. I did see the NWS AFD and the question remains how far east the storm goes.

  40. Thanks tk I agree with no hype, I believe in the end the ground is to warm and where I live here a couple miles south of gillette stadium I expect very little if any snow accumulation, take it easy

  41. Boston has received “trace” amounts of October snow 24 times since 1891 and 14 of those following winters received above normal snowfall with one exactly normal (42″= 1902-03). The “above” normal amounts generally fell within the 45 and 65-inch range…decent but obviously nothing anywhere near last year’s amount of 81.0″ for example.

    1. Yeah last yr didn’t seem bad bc we didn’t get much snow in Feb or march, last winter wasn’t bad here, for a 2nd season we got no snow in the month of march

  42. According to Pete Bouchard’s evening blog, temps will warm up again after Halloween…do you agree on that TK?

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