Update Of Previous Post

73 Comments

11:34PM

Updating the previous discussion, and noting there are no major changes to the forecast at this time. Here is all the latest: A breakdown of weather systems, followed by a detailed forecast…

Overnight…Clouds moving in as a frontal system sits south of the region.

Wednesday… The front remains south of the region and wave of low pressure #1 moves along it, passing south of New England, and a chance of light rain is the result.

Wednesday night…  Clouds hang in, cold air filters in, but it is mostly dry between low pressure #1 and low pressure #2.

Thursday… Low pressure area #2 moves along the front, this one a bit closer and a bit stronger than the one before it. Rain overspreads the region. Cold air continues to filter in, cold enough to probably start mixing rain with snow in the higher elevations to the northwest of Boston by day’s end.

Thursday night… As long as the precipitation from low pressure #2 does not get really light or move out too quickly, enough cold air will be available to change the rain to snow from northwest to southeast across the area, the exception possibly being the immediate coast and areas south of Boston, which may remain just a little too warm. Even areas that were to go over to all snow would see little in the way of accumulation other than brief coatings on unpaved surfaces. The ground, after 2 very mild months in September & most of October, will be just too warm, so you won’t need to run out and get any ice melt.

Friday… Low pressure #2 moves away, high pressure moves toward the region, and a bright but breezy and chilly day is in store.

Saturday… Low pressure #3 threatens. It still remains uncertain what happens, as the guidance is split, so we’ll just continue to monitor the situation. Enough cold air will be around to produce some snow if precipitation should move in.

Sunday… Whatever happens, or doesn’t happen, on Saturday, will be moving away and expect a dry and chilly day.

Monday (Halloween)… A very weak disturbance moving in from the west may produce some clouds. Not expecting any meaningful precipitation at this time, but this is quite a distance out.

Details…

OVERNIGHT: Increasing clouds. Low 35-40. Wind W diminishing to 5-10 MPH then shifting to N.

WEDNESDAY: Cloudy. A few periods of light rain. High 45-50. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Low 35-40. Wind N 5-10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Cloudy. Chance of rain especially in the afternoon. Chance of rain/mix/snow at night. Low 38. High 48.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 29. High 49.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain or snow. Low 32. High 44.

SUNDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 33. High 50.

MONDAY – HALLOWEEN: Variably cloudy. Low 35. High 53.

73 thoughts on “Update Of Previous Post”

  1. Thanks for the update TK !!

    Currently in Denver….31F, visibility 1 mile in light snow. The radar in that region is showing lots of green radar echoes, looks like several hours of accumulating snow out there. Wasnt it around 80F the last couple of days ? I know that happens a lot in that climate, that must be interesting to experience.

    The next few days should lower the above normal October departures locally, then as November starts, a relative temp moderation might start another month off with above normal temps. 2 + straight months now with neutral or positive NAO…………

    1. Denver has crazy climatology! I went to school out there and we would have a blizzard one day and then bam it would 70 the next.

  2. Thanks TK!!

    So the GFS is a little closer for Sat storm!! Still think the immediate coast is gonna have a hard time with getting accumulation but who knows. But this looks like an eastern mass storm at this point.

  3. Thanks TK – I’m keeping my fingers crossed that we see snow in Framingham Thursday. I’m uncharacteristically hoping we don’t get anything on Saturday as we are going to a pumpkin walk with our granddaughter in the evening.

  4. And a reminder that I still don’t have some snow totals and I think TK said by November 1 but I suspect that isn’t written in stone Here are totals I have
    Philip 53.00
    JimmyJames 43.00
    Vicki 38.00
    Rainshine 30.00
    Tom 27.00
    Coastal 79.00
    John 48.00
    Old Salty 60.00
    Charlie 23.90
    Scott 84.00
    Merlin 67.00

  5. Hi Vicki et. al.

    Just noticed the friendly competition here.

    Didn’t see past posts for where but put me down for 46″ worcester airport and 29″ at logan. (whatever location you guys picked)

    going below with my numbers….think we’re going to get frustrated with great lake cutters this year.

  6. Denver averages about 52 inches of snow for the winter. Last year was a disappointing snow season for the snow lovers there with only 23 inches. From a record high to accumulating snow out there.
    Coastal I agree with you I think we will see more great lakes cutters and few coastal storms.

  8. Vicki, don’t forget I am in for 3″ and please announce that so far Longshot is in the lead. No one is closer to the actual snowfall season total-to-date than I. 🙂

  9. No big changes with the morning model runs, although still should keep a close eye on the weekend system.

  12. IMPORTANT SNOW TOTAL ANNOUNCEMENT –

    Tahhhh Dahhhhh

    LONGSHOT IS IN THE LEAD

    With three inches which of course some of us are hoping will be passed on Thursday

    just sayin’

  13. It started raining in Framingham about 30 minutes ago

    TK – for the snow total is it closest whether a person is higher or lower (e.g., if someone guesses 32 inches and another guesses 35 and the actual snowfall is 33 who would win?)

    1. Hi Vicki – here is my 2c…IMO the person who guessed 32″ should win like on “The Price Is Right” w/o going over. Of course, TK should be the one who makes the final decision on any rules.

  14. On Twitter:
    BigJoeBastardi Joe Bastardi
    GFS has shifted west with ne weekend storm. Like my idea of some snow for big cities PHL to BOS on weekend!

  15. I like Joe Bastardi’s passion for weather. About a month ago while on Fox Business channel he was saying the winter would start gang busting then a pretty good thaw develops in January and lasts into February. He said he would be surprised if NYC saw its biggest snowfall of the season in late February and next winter will be colder when the La Nina is gone.

  19. Clearly, it WILL snow Tomorrow night sometime. Just a question of when the column cools enough. I still expect a minor accumulation on grassy surfaces in the immediate
    Boston area. But that is just I. We shall see

  21. Thanks for posting the links to all the models Old Salty. Will see what the 12z runs says but to me anytime you have low pressure on the east coast it needs to be watched. One thing to keep in mind the weekend storm is stronger than the one today and tomorrow and if were to take the snow track it would be a wet snow and for those areas in the interior and up in elevation that would be not be good with leaves on the trees and the weight of that could bring some trees down and have some power issues.

  22. 12z NAM coming in a tad colder and stronger…

    Hour 36
    http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?page=Image&prevPage=Param&image=..%2FGemPakTier%2FMagGemPakImages%2Fnam%2F20111026%2F12%2Fnam_namer_033_1000_500_thick.gif&fcast=033&imagesurls=&model=NAM&area=NAMER&storm=&areaDesc=North+America+-+US+Canada+and+northern+Mexico&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&rname=SFC-LAYER+PARMS&pname=1000_500_thick&cycle=10%2F26%2F2011+12UTC&imageSize=M&currKey=model&scrollx=0&scrolly=0&nextImage=yes

  23. Hour 39 of the 12z NAM…
    Not much in the way of a strung out low in this run.

    http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?page=Image&prevPage=Param&image=..%2FGemPakTier%2FMagGemPakImages%2Fnam%2F20111026%2F12%2Fnam_namer_033_1000_500_thick.gif&fcast=033&imagesurls=&model=NAM&area=NAMER&storm=&areaDesc=North+America+-+US+Canada+and+northern+Mexico&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&rname=SFC-LAYER+PARMS&pname=1000_500_thick&cycle=10%2F26%2F2011+12UTC&imageSize=M&currKey=model&scrollx=0&scrolly=0&nextImage=yes

    1. Scott, IMO, possible snow in Boston area will be from 7PM to about 1AM with
      about .4 Inch qpf. That may be enough to coat the grass and that will be about all, I would guess.

      We’ll see what the 12ZNAM hints at with the weekend event at 84 hours.

      Thanks

  24. JJ,

    You are so right. “Should” the weekend event occur, the track would be critical
    for snow/Rain. Because that ocean is so warm, it will not snow anywhere near the coast without a North or Northwest wind. If it goes benchmark, It will rain near the coast for 1/2-3/4 of the event before mixing and changing over.

    It is not out of the question to have a funky enough track, that the winds remain
    more Northly for the entire event. That would be something!

    As Dick Albert used to say: Too Ealry To Tell

  25. This is a frame that is a good indicator of where the wind will be blowing. In this case, it’s coming from the north.
    hour 39 of the 12z NAM
    http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?prevPage=Param&MainPage=index&image=&page=Param&cycle=10%2F26%2F2011+12UTC&rname=UPPER+AIR+PARMS&pname=850_stream&pdesc=&model=NAM&area=NAMER&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&fcast=039&areaDesc=North+America+-+US+Canada+and+northern+Mexico&prevArea=NAMER&currKey=model&returnToModel=&imageSize=M

    1. Scott,

      Wasn’t worried about wind for tomorrow. Already new would be from North.
      It is the weekend event????

      Thank

  27. Latest NAM does look a little less flat I think. Might help at the margins (if you’re looking for snow that is)

  29. Latest NWS thinking:

    NAM AND GFS ALSO AGREE ON STRONG FRONTOGENETIC FORCING MOVING
    THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AROUND 00Z. IT IS ABOUT THIS TIME
    THAT THE SURFACE LOW PASSES TO OUR SOUTH AND DRAWS COLDER AIR
    SOUTH. 1000-850 MB THICKNESSES FALL BELOW 1300 METERS IN THIS
    AREA OF LIFT…WITH DEEPER 1000-500 MB THICKNESSES EITHER SIDE OF
    5400 METERS. WHILE ALL THIS IS HAPPENING…THE SUN WILL BE
    SETTING. PUT IT ALL TOGETHER AND IT SUGGESTS THE RAIN WILL CHANGE
    TO SNOW IN AT LEAST SOME OF OUR FORECAST AREA TOWARD 00Z. SOUTHERN
    NH AND NORTHWEST MASSACHUSETTS WOULD BE MOST LIKELY…ESPECIALLY
    IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

    BASED ON BUFKIT SOUNDINGS FOR THURSDAY EVENING…THE FAVORED
    ELEVATIONS FOR ACCUMULATION WOULD BE AT OR ABOVE 1000 FEET IN
    SOUTHERN NH CLIMBING TO 2000 FEET OVER NORTHERN CONNECTICUT.
    FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST…THE NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS OFF
    MASSACHUSETTS BAY AND ITS 58F WATER TEMPS SHOULD KEEP THE BOS-PVD
    COASTAL PLAIN AS RAIN.

    I guess they don’t see snow in the Boston Area.

    Interesting to see.

  30. For What it is worth and what do I know….I think the NWS is wrong.
    I’d wager I see SNOW at my house tomorrow evening sometime.

    Let’s see if that verifies.

  31. I’m thinking the interior sees the first flakes with maybe some coatings on the lawns. The coast is going to be close call as to whether flakes fall there.
    The weekend storm I am leaning towards no worse than a glancing blow at this time but these low pressure systems have minds of their own and I remember back in December 2009 the models were saying the same thing about a coastal low and then Thursday evening 18z runs of NAM and GFS flipped and showed us getting a hit from that coastal storm.

    1. JJ,

      I don’t remember, but I’m sure you are correct. I remember another
      one way back int the 80s I believe. All forecasts were for a miss, but we
      got clocked with a foot of snow from a sneak attack coastal low. It was Dec 6.
      1981 or 82 or thereabouts.

      It’s not over until…well until it is over

  32. I brought that up back in 2009 of December because that was a Saturday storm just like this one is projected to be. The eastern parts of SNE had the most snow that storm system back I believe around 19th or 20th.

          1. Thanks TK..I was just going to correct myself on that. I do remember the storm well and it was definitely a sneaky one. It seemed to come out of nowhere.

  33. JimCantore Jim Cantore
    Models in much better agreement today regarding New England Snow events, yes EVENTS. Thursday’s and then Saturday’s. Could be interesting
    ON TWITTER

  37. 12z GFS is cold…I would be very surprised if my area doesn’t flip over to snow flakes from what the models are showing.

  38. October snows bring mixed results in terms of snowfall totals for the eventual winter to come. I haven’t done as extensive research on November snows, but probably similar lower totals as well with a few exceptions…be careful what you wish for guys!

    I believe Boston and most of SNE tend to get higher totals for the winter when the snows commence “after” Thanksgiving.

  40. Cloud cover, a little precip and some dry air initially for the rain to fall into sure made for a chilly day today. I think a few spots hit 50F, otherwise a lot of upper 40s.

      1. We have turned the heat on a couple of times the last few days, after not using it yet this season…..Today, we were on a field trip, some of which was outside and despite being bundled up, I was cold.

  41. NWS has issued a Freeze Watch for Boston for early Friday morning! It appears that the growing season will be over soon and the “fall” foliage can finally begin.

    Also, the storm threat for Saturday is over…it is expected to pass well SE of the 40/70 benchmark. If it was December, I would be bummed, but since it is October I am thrilled. 🙂

  42. As I mentioned earlier a concern would be IF the storm Saturday were to produce snow in the interior and up areas up in elevation it would be a wet snow and with leaves on the trees that is not a good situation since that will add wait and then there could be power issues. As of now most show a miss but anytime you got low pressure on the east coast it needs to be watched.

  43. I just took a look at the radar out of Denver, and the snow has now moved away. Does anyone know how much they got today?

  45. SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT…
    MDL SOLNS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON AMPLIFYING AND NEG-TILTING THE
    TROF ACROSS THE NERN CONUS PROMOTING SFC LOW DEVELOPMENT FROM THE
    CAROLINA COASTLINE NEWD…WITH THE SFC LOW TRACK WELL S/E OF THE 40N
    70W BENCHMARK. THE KEY FOR THIS FCST WILL BE THE TRACK OF THE H85
    LOW…AND ATTENDANT RGN OF BEST MID-LVL FRONTOGENESIS OF THE WARM
    CONVEYOR BELT ALONG THE N/W PERIPHERY OF THE H85 LOW. 12Z GFS KEEPS
    THE BEST LIFT JUST OFFSHORE…SLIGHTLY SKIRTING THE S COASTLINE…
    WHILE THE 0Z ECMWF CENTERS A FAVORABLE BANDING RGN THRU S NEW
    ENGLAND…S OF THE MASS PIKE. A FEW GEFS MEMBERS TRACK THE H85 LOW
    WITHIN PROXIMITY OF THE BENCHMARK WITH 2-3 JUST SLIGHTLY N/W OF THE
    BENCHMARK.

    ANOTHER KEY WILL BE THE INFLUENCE OF THE STORM IN PUSHING THE FRI
    HIGH PRES NWD. THERE IS STILL A LVL OF UNCERTAINTY CONCERNING POPS
    AND IF WE WILL SEE SNOW. NOT ABSOLUTELY SURE IF A SNOWY SITUATION
    WILL BE PSBL WITH THE PLAUSIBLE STORM TRACK…AND ITS INFLUENCE TO
    BACK N/NWLY WINDS…WRAPPING COLDER AIR RESULTING IN CAA ACROSS THE
    RGN DURING THE LATE DAY INTO EVNG SAT. PRESENT FCST TEMPS AND
    THICKNESSES ARE NOT SUPPORTING A SNOWY SITUATION…YET THE BULK OF
    THE STORM WILL BE THRU THE SAT NGT PD. MID-LVL TEMPS /H925-85/ RANGE
    FROM THE FRZG MARK TO -4C…WET BULB TEMPS RANGING IN LOW TO MID
    30S…DEWPOINTS ARE PRESENTLY FCST IN THE UPR 20S TO LOW 30S.
    CONSIDERING THOSE FACTORS…AREAS AFFECTED BY PRECIP WOULD BE
    EXPECTED TO DYNAMICALLY COOL RESULTING IN A CHANGE OVER TO SNOW.
    SHOULD HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON THE STORM AS WE GET CLOSER IN TIME

    1. It seems the NWS hasn’t given up on this storm just yet, I mean we are about 80 hours away from it. We all know it can take up until 48 hours for a track to be set for sure. With a complicating weather pattern, it may just happen to take up until 48 hours with this one as well…

  46. The fact that the models tend to have issues when tropical systems are present makes me question what they are currently showing for this weekend’s system, might just be some paranoia that I need to get over…
    Should just keep an eye on it, that 18z GFS was a bit skeptical.

  47. That was from the noaa:

    I think tomorrow will be a very interesting day. I feel it is always interesting to see rani change to snow. I remember several of these instances where the forecast did not call for any flakes on the south shore and we received a slushy coating. I am going to guess this will happen again tomorrow but not with the slushy coating. I feel flakes will be in the air on the south shore starting between 5 and 6 pm. This should translate down to Plymouth. Again it will be mostly a mix of rain/snow but it will be our first snow flakes of the season and its before Halloween. Should be a interesting day to track the obvs.

  48. Evening all!

    Updating in a little while. But a few quick thoughts…

    No major changes for the 1st system. I think all accumulations will be under 2 inches mainly N & W, mostly around 1 inch or less with any 2’s being isolated. Whatever does fall will melt quickly after it ends.

    Coastal flooding threat on Thursday at high tide.

    And I noticed someone already mentioned the freeze likely coming right to the coast. About time for that. 🙂

    Saturday’s storm is heading mainly out to sea. Will hold a chance of precip mainly along and south of the Pike for now…

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