Thursday August 13 2020 Forecast

40 Comments

7:43AM

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 13-17)

A frontal boundary will sit near to just south of the New England South Coast the next few days. Several days ago you may recall I mentioned a “mini” block developing. I was referring to a set-up where we have a boundary with low pressure developing on it to the south, and high pressure to the north, which eventually tries to slide more to the east of the region. This will be the pattern that drives the weather these 5 days. The frontal boundary will be close enough to help trigger a few showers near the South Coast today, and possibly Friday although the chance drops off then. The low pressure area will never get that strong but may mill around to the south of the region, or consist of two separate waves (not quite sure yet) and will probably contribute to at least more cloudiness over the weekend. The wild card is whether or not any wet weather makes its way into the region Sunday into Monday. This has been a question in my meteorological mind for a while and I still have not figured it out, so we will keep an eye on it, and applying the rule of drought, I’ll go with the clouds, but not to too excited about the rainfall chance, even though that “chance” will be included in the forecast that follows this rambling explanation. 😉 What I do know with more certainly is that today and tomorrow we trend to less humid, keep it there into the weekend, then see the humidity come back up somewhat, but without the heat, during Sunday and Monday.

TODAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of a few showers near the South Coast. Less humid especially north of I-90 but still somewhat humid toward the South Coast. Highs 78-83 coast, 84-89 inland. Wind variable to E up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 58-65. Wind E under 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Slight chance of a shower South Coast. Highs 76-83, coolest coastal areas. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 58-65. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Variably cloudy. Highs 76-83, coolest coast. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 58-65. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers favoring the South Coast during the afternoon. Highs 77-84, coolest coast. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Chance of showers. Humid. Lows 63-70. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Humid. Highs 75-82. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 18-22)

A quick shot of warmer/muggy air with a chance of thunderstorms ahead of a cold front August 18, followed by high pressure and generally dry weather with temperatures mostly around mid to late August averages thereafter.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 23-27)

The long-standing pattern of a shot of heat followed by a frontal passage and a shower/thunderstorm chance then high pressure building north of the region with an indirect delivery of Canadian air via the Atlantic waters may play itself out yet again.

40 thoughts on “Thursday August 13 2020 Forecast”

  1. Good morning and thank you TK.

    I had a thought, in fact I think I may have mentioned it before,
    any chance of including a dew point forecast along with the temperatures? Like Highs 88-94, DP 68-72 or something
    like that. I, for one, would highly value that as part of the
    forecast. Don’t know how others would feel about it.

    Many thanks for even considering it.

      1. That would be Awesome!! Many thanks!

        Of course it is far more meaningful in the Summer, so perhaps
        only do it from say April through September or October
        or something like that.

    2. Oh my goodness, have been wanting to ask for this for the longest time and never got the courage. Every day, I read TK’s forecast, and head over to an airport or somewhere with an hourly forecast to figure out the dew points. It would be super helpful.

  7. Dew points in Eastern MA are really coming down.

    Currently 57 at Logan, 56 at Blue Hill and 58 at Norowood.

    AHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH!!!!!!!!!

  8. Thank you, TK.

    If I had relied on the TV forecasts, as late as Tuesday evening(!), I would have expected some rain last night and showers today. But, because I tune into the best forecast in town (WHW) I knew that the likelihood of rain was slim to none.

    I’m trying to stay positive regarding the warmth and drought. On warmth we’re in summer’s final chapter. It can be a long one that extends into September, but the book will be completed soon. As for the drought I feel empathy for the trees. I know that this is strange. Most trees will do fine. Yet, I still wish I could give all of them some water.

  9. Logan is 84 with a NE wind! Kind of makes a statement
    about how warm the water is out there, no? 🙂 🙂

    1. 2016 was bad, too, an extension of 2015. Purely from observations, I’d say equally bad. But, I’ll defer to TK for a more reasoned, evidence-based comment.

    1. Thank you SAK. Nice explanation.

      Curious: In your blogs you often use We. It is your blog, wondering why you don’t use I? Do you prepare the blog with a colleague and that is why you use We? Or is it that not only you feel that way, but many of your associates do as well and the We is for emphasis? It matters not, but it has been gnawing at me. Many thanks

      1. The blog began as a bit of a joke on Facebook during a snowstorm several years ago. I was making fun of all of the media hype an exaggeration, and created the mythical “Storm HQ” to report on the hype itself. From there, it grew to a Facebook page, a Twitter page (which I update several times a night), and the blog.

        I do have someone that usually sits with me whe I’m writing though, so I guess you can call her a co-writer: https://photos.app.goo.gl/VEV12V8ZJSXMcqNY9

  13. Certainly, the ocean temp is helping to moderate the seabreeze.

    I think, today anyway, the bigger thing still maintaining Logan´s temp at 83F, even with a decent seabreeze is that, this is still a very warm airmass.

    1,000 ft Worcester is 86F and the summit of Mt Washington is 57F.

    Thankfully, drier air has been able to push southward and that is helping some.

    1. To confirm you point, Bedford is currently at 90 while
      Norwood, Fitchburg, Lawrence and Beverly are at 88.

      And current Boston Buoy temp is at: 70.34

  15. Is there a pattern change coming from the mostly zonal summer pattern, to one, where trofs in the next 2 weeks have a chance to deliver somewhat cooler airmasses ?

    If this is the case, I wonder if this pattern goes back to the zonal pattern a few weeks from now.

    I checked the teleconnections and the PNA, NAO and AO look relatively similar to what they have been all summer.

    I did notice the MJO is headed for phase 8 and then phase 1. Maybe those are phases that offer cooler summer conditions in the northeast ???????????

    1. MJO will probably be in a weaker phase than forecast and not much of a factor. I don’t see a big pattern change any time soon. Teleconnections speak more loudly.

  16. I guess Ch 4 is going to stay with the “grey on grey” (2 shades that are not that much different) for their cloud maps. Horrendous design. You cannot tell what is clouds and what is clear sky on those.

    2. Ha…I’d forgotten we had this conversation last year. I like the grey on grey. Beauty dontja know is in the eye of the beholder. Although on the scale of things lately another phrase comes to mind ….Frankly, my dear, I don’t give a damn 🙂 🙂

      Sorry. Snarky day today. And not seeing a sign of clearing in the forecast area

  18. Curious if we continue dry & mild this winter . I’ll. Be able to enjoy watching some early storms this year at home if they come without the stress

  20. The odds of it verifying are close to 0, but the 378-384 hour panels of the GFS have highs in the 50s and lower 60s around here with rain on August 29.

  21. New weather post is ready…

    JP Dave I put a general dew point temp forecast range in for the first 3 days. I may tweak the layout of my detailed forecast in the coming days to make that stuff easier to look at.

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