DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 30 – OCTOBER 4)
Discussion…
A cold front is moving across the region this morning. Ahead of it are numerous showers, some of them heavy, and rather gusty southerly winds. The wind is a bigger story than the rain for many, as some scattered power outages have been occurring. But this is a short-lived event, and while the wind is certainly impressive, the rainfall amounts will be rather modest, and not putting much of a scratch in the still-worsening drought, especially since, despite 2 more rain chances that I can see in the days ahead, the long-term pattern remains dry. What about the next rain chance? Hold on, don’t you want to know about the clearing this afternoon and the nice day tomorrow? There, now you know. Another wave of low pressure brings a rain chance on Friday, but it doesn’t look overly impressive to me. Nevertheless, I think most areas will get wet for a while before high pressure moves in for a dry and seasonable first weekend of October.
Details…
TODAY: Cloudy start with numerous showers, some heavy, and a slight risk of thunder, then breaking clouds but still a chance of passing showers into late morning, followed by mostly sunny with just passing clouds midday and afternoon. Highs 70-77. Dew point starting in 60s then falling to 50s. Wind S 15-25 MPH, but with gusts 35-50 MPH and even higher than that in some open coastal areas and higher elevations early, shifting to W and diminishing slightly to 10-20 MPH with gusts 25-40 MPH by late morning then gradually decreasing further during the afternoon.
TONIGHT: Clear. Lows 53-60. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 70-77. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 50-57. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.
FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain or showers, favoring the afternoon. Highs 62-69. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain evening. Clearing but patchy fog overnight. Lows 53-60. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.
SATURDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 59-66. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 40-47. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 58-65. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 5-9)
A wave of low pressure brings a risk of some rain October 5 and a cold front may bring a shower risk about October 7, otherwise it’s mostly dry weather with a more zonal flow pattern. Temperatures variable, with the sharpest contrast possibly coming in the form of a warm spike October 7 then chill-down at the end of the period.
DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 10-14)
Minor shower risk early in the period otherwise mostly dry weather with a west-to-east (zonal) flow overall. Temperatures near to above normal.
Good morning and thank TK.
up to 0.99 inch here in JP.
I’ll take it.
my boss just emailed that she loss power in Brockton. I wonder if SAK is out??
Now an even inch.
He might be . A lot of pembroke was out
Wild weather just as the students were arriving! Gusts must have hit 55 mph. Then the fire alarm went off!
That sounds like a great way to start the day 🙂
Thanks TK.
What is up with Logan’s rain gauge.
They are only reporting 0.41 inch as of 7AM.
That does not sound correct to me.
Blue Hill reporting 0.91 inch as of 7AM.
Norwood reporting 0.90 inch of 7AM
Beverly 0.74 as of 7AM
Bedford 0.25 inch as of 7AM
hmmm interesting
Latest info shows Logan a paltry 0.32 inch!
That cannot be correct.
Unless Charlie has been camped out over there all night!
It looks as if the worst of it is now and for the next 1/2 hour to hour tops. We shall see.
Latest gusts at Logan 44 mph
Blue Hill 70 mph.
My Meso West site shows the following precip amounts:
Logan: 0.42
Beverly: 0.66
Blue Hill: 0.98
Norwood: 0.92
Plymouth: 0.33
Marshfield: 0.35
Taunton: 0.58
Bedford: 0.25
Worcester: 0.71
Fitchburg: 0.65
Providence: 0.54
I am currently at 1.01 inch here in JP.
It looks like we have a little MAX area just SW of Logan extending 15-20 miles or so.
https://imgur.com/a/cUrHRLm
Perhaps even 25 or 30 miles???
WXWatcher, do you have a rain gauge in Wrentham
that you have remote access to? I’d be curious as to the amount there.
Pawtucket showed 0.5 inch, so wondering where the cutoff
was?
I had .63 in North Attleboro Dave.
Thanks. The Southern end of the Max? Great to know.
Thanks for this list, JpDave !
Things are quieting down here in Middleborough. Many sections in the north and east parts of town have power outage.
Parts of Brockton are out as well.
Thanks TK !
The fire alarm has gone off three times in two days. We are getting a new building in February. We sent the kids to the gym to keep them (and us!) out of the storm.
Thanks TK. 1.07 in my rain gauge this morning.
And just like that, it is QUIET outside.
My final total 1.02 inch.
Remember, this was convective, so there will be splotchy maxes and min’s.
Yup, understood. Some areas really got porked.
Thinking that’s a wrap in the city . Extremely humid outside . I’ve been running the Units at home all week .
Sure looks that way. I wonder what the high gust was at Logan.
Highest I saw was 46, but I was NOT looking all of the time and could easily have missed a higher gust. I do not think it was
more than that here.
We had done intense gusts here in the 7-8 am timeframe at the hospital
Blue Hill had a gust of 72; Duxbury 67
OK guys, I went brain dead and I cannot find the NWS Box totals by county and city.
Could someone post the link? Thanks.
Is this it, LS?
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=BOX&product=PNS&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off
Yes, thank you. Not many reports on rain totals but lots on wind and wind gusts.
Thanks again.
Raining pretty good here again. Adding to the total.
Here at the Storm HQ World Headquarters Compound the power did apparently go out for a while this morning. Since I was sleeping, I didn’t know until I woke up and the clock on the coffee maker was flashing 12:00AM.
One more little band to come through, but only 0.44″ here. There are 2 personal wx stations on Weather Wunderground within 1/2 mile of me that I use as comparison. One had 0.50″ and a peak gust to 28mph, the other had 0.36″ and a peak gust to 32. So my 0.44″ fits in perfectly.
Up in Lowell, since I have access to the obs at the University, both systems reported 0.34″. One reported a peak wind gust to 41 mph. The other I won’t have the data until tomorrow AM.
OK, now we are done in JP.
Final total was 1.14 inches and I will happily accept that!
Front is through. Dew point is dropping. Down to 62 here.
Thank you, TK.
Well, at least it rained again. Besides Monday’s paltry 0.05 inch it hadn’t rained in 19 days in Boston.
Wind here was rather ho-hum, quite frankly. I’m in Back Bay. My guess is there were a few gusts 40-45mph. But, that’s not a real wind storm in my book. Certainly not a sustained one.
It was dreadfully humid. Had my fan on all day and night. Unusual for late September, though not unheard of. I’m really ready for lower dew points. But, the long-range for October looks rather warm, and as the southwesterly takes over up goes the dew point. For sustained lower dew points and temperatures place to be later this month is Montana or North Dakota.
Thanks TK.
My 0.75-1.25” range seemed to work out well overall, more misses to the low side than the high side in SNE though. The Logan measurement does seem a bit suspicious. Wind was definitely the bigger story, a fairly significant power outage event.
I see no problem at all with the 0.46″ at Logan.
Nearby obs:
1.03″ Northeastern University
0.92″ South Boston
0.87″ Brookline
0.80″ Boston College
0.76″ Chelsea
0.74″ Somerville
0.67″ Hyde Park
0.53″ Watertown
0.52″ Medford
0.45″ Cambridge
0.42″ Waltham
0.41″ Winthrop
0.40″ Needham
0.34″ Newton
0.32″ Arlington
0.31″ Watertown
As TK said, it was convective, so you’ll see a wide range across a small area, but the 0.46″ at Logan is certainly well within the range of other nearby obs. Given that the closest ob distance-wise (Winthrop) is very similar, makes me even more confident that the Logan ob is fine.
I’ll have a Woburn # soon.
Dewpoint a luscious 58 (compared to 73 this morning and all this week in my classroom)…
Winds still gusting to 33.
Thanks TK.
1.33″ the final total in Coventry, CT which I will gladly take at this point. We received 0.01″ Monday and that was the first measurable precip in 2.5 weeks.
We will finish at 1.85″ on the month of Sept. Driest month in a very long time.
Winds were fairly impressive for awhile. Had a tree and power line down on a road not to far from me but we escaped without losing power.
Is it just I, or has Vicki been noticeably absent lately.
I hope all is well.
She did post on the COVID blog today.
Exactly 1/2 inch (0.50) at Woburn. For eastern MA, the expected range of generally 0.25 to 1.00 inch verified. There was more to the west, also as we suspected there would be. Hardly much to help drought yet again, since the heaviest rain just ran off, like so many other events have.
Still on track for an unsettled Friday, but don’t expect all that much rainfall.
ECMWF is very much over-forecasting Monday’s system.
Heavily leaning closer to the GFS solution, but with enough reservation prompted from keeping in mind how much the models do indeed continue to suck.
The 12z GFS’s handling of that tropical system in the SE US late in its run was rather comical. 😉
I also leaned GFS on the Sunday-Monday period for my forecast today. Can’t completely rule out the wetter guidance but definitely have a suspicion the drier stuff prevails.
My office recorded a 24 hour rainfall total of 3.14″ for this morning’s observation. There was a jackpot stripe that ran right along I-95 in NJ up into southern NY and western CT. Lesser amounts to the east. Overall, a decent job by most of the guidance, and meteorologists, at least on the overall idea with the rain. Human forecasts in general seemed late to jump on the wind potential, which greatly overperformed earlier forecasts. Models beat the forecasters handily there.
Even though there was not that much rain, there was wind and a giant maple fell in my back yard but this is also due to grape vines