Thursday December 10 2020 Forecast (7:42AM)

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DAYS 1-5 (DECEMBER 10-14)

The geomagnetic storm that was expected to trigger a display of the aurora borealis (northern lights) did not arrive as aggressively as was anticipated last night, which ended up a moot point since we stayed generally overcast. But drier air is working in now, and stratocumulus clouds that are still around to start today will decrease and the sky should be clear by this evening, when we have a better chance at an occurrence of the northern lights, this time on the earlier side of evening. Again, no guarantee we’ll see it, but to maximize your chance, try to be away from lights and have a clear view to the north from as high an elevation as you can. They would appear most likely as a greenish and/or yellowish glow fairly close to and for a short distance above the horizon. It’s rare to see them much higher up at our latitude, and it’s even more rare to see the reddish color they can produce. But we will see what, if anything, happens. As far as our weather, dry weather courtesy high pressure through Friday. Then we have some unsettled weather moving in from the weekend. High pressure will be located in eastern Canada as low pressure makes an attempt to cut northwest of New England via the Great Lakes. While it will be successful in taking this track and travelling down the St. Lawrence Valley by Sunday, its warm front will struggle, as is typical, to move northward through the region on Saturday, which, while not cold, will also not warm up in any great hurry, along with cloudiness and periods of rain, favoring the later portion of the day into Saturday night. As stated yesterday, the position of that front will determine who gets a cold frontal passage and who gets an occluded frontal passage on Sunday, which will also be unsettled, but with the greatest chance of any rainfall in the morning. So if you are still needing to finish some outside decorations or pick up a Christmas tree this weekend, lean toward earlier Saturday and/or later Sunday. A trough of low pressure will pass through the region Monday, delivering a shot of colder air, perhaps with a few snow showers.

TODAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 38-45. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Clear. Lows 20-27. Wind W under 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Sun and high clouds. Highs 40-47. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows 30-37. Wind SE under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of light rain, mainly in the afternoon. Highs 45-52 except 38-45 in northern MA and southern NH Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Spotty light rain except possible pockets of freezing rain southern NH and northern MA. Lows 31-38. Winds NE under 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Rain showers likely, mainly during the morning. Highs 40-47. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 28-35. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Partly cloudy. Chance of a passing snow shower. Highs 35-42. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

DAYS 6-10 (DECEMBER 15-19)

High pressure will bring dry and cold weather to the region December 15. Next storm threat (rain/mix/snow) comes during the December 16-17 period, details to be determined by the track of a low pressure system. Colder/drier weather follows this.

DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 20-24)

Watching the period December 21-23 for a potential storm threat. Temperatures variable, close to normal overall.

68 thoughts on “Thursday December 10 2020 Forecast (7:42AM)”

    2. Remember yesterday when I said a wise man said the models suck and to look at the overall pattern and not the details….let’s say for this instance we can lock in the details 7 days out!

      1. Ha ha. That would be nice.

        I think the only think we can have reasonable confidence that there is likely to be a storm system in that
        time period. The question is, the track and intensity both of which determine what type of precipitation we get and how much.

        TK covers it: Next storm threat (rain/mix/snow) comes during the December 16-17 period, details to be determined by the track of a low pressure system.

  4. Thank you, TK. I love snow but May I request a bit of warmer weather to melt the layer of ice on the deck please. You know how cranky I get if I can’t sit out there 😉

  10. It is pointless at the moment to look at anything detailed on any guidance beyond 48 to 60 hours…

    they are not even likely getting Saturday night’s temperatures right nevermind the rain snow lines for things a week away. 😉

    1. We understand, or I do for sure. You know what we are
      doing. We’re playing around with What if scenarios and having a bit of fun amidst the pandemic. 🙂 🙂 I won’t get excited until
      we get 3 days out.

  16. Philip here is a tweet from Eric about that storm potential mid week next week
    Intriguing setup for a coastal storm about a week from now. We’ll see if all the ingredients line up but looks fairly ripe from a distance.

  18. 30″ bullseye over the Hartford area on that 12z GFS run with a modeled “death band” across the center of the State, reminiscent of Nemo in 2013. And with decent support from the Euro. Oh what I wouldn’t give for that solution to verify! Too bad it is still 7 days out.

    1. Mark I feel the same way you do. I have seen this more times than not a storm like this forecasted a week out end up a fish storm. If this solution is holding come Monday I might be more excited.

  22. The potential for next week is certainly there, but as far as details… Just keep in mind that a small handful of days before last weekend’s event, the general model error on the low position was about 500 miles….

    1. One thing that is looking more and more likely (unlike the last one) is that this storm is going to have some cold air firmly entrenched to play with. With respect to possible track error, probably a greater risk this one ends up out to sea than a cutter.

      1. Yes. There will be more cold air in the bank. Last weekend the bank account was essentially empty. 😛

    1. Based on that (and other) model’s recent failures, I’d be very cautious about next week’s threat.

    1. Important to note though: to get to a neutral ENSO by the Spring, that means a gradual weakening of La Nina as the winter moves along. I would think this could play a role later in the winter.

    1. To be expected. Amounts aren’t really even worth considering 7 days out. It’s really just about what the pattern does, with regard to bringing our storm threat to us. I’d bet a fair amount of ensembles also show less than the operational run too. 🙂

  29. Hmm…the ECMWF struggling with consistent solutions. Do you know anyone who has harped on blind reliance on that model?

    Next week – colder, flatter, further south. My current hypothesis based on anticipated synoptic conditions.

  33. NWS discussion on next week’s potential Nor’easter….

    Wednesday into Thursday:

    This is likely the period that model-watchers are focused on.
    Ensemble means continue to advertise a strong coastal low organizing
    from a potent shortwave disturbance aloft in the Mississippi Valley
    Wed, then passing near or over the 40N/70W benchmark later Wednesday
    into Thursday. While the 12z GEM offers an offshore solution that
    would bring hardly any effects to our area, it doesn`t have support
    from its own ensemble. While there remains some spread in GEFS/EPS
    member low tracks, each of these ensemble means and deterministic
    guidance supports a strong coastal storm late Wed into part of
    Thurs. Were this system to materialize as progged by the GFS and
    ECMWF, it would have the potential to bring multiple hazards
    including significant snowfall for parts of or all of Southern New
    England, gusty winds and potential for coastal flooding especially
    eastern coasts. One thing that this system will likely have to work
    with that the past couple winter storms we`ve dealt with have not
    had is plenty of cold air (925 mb temps around -6 to -10 in the
    interior, 0 to -4 for the coastal areas/I-95 metro).

    Couple potential caveats that are worth noting. As with all coastal
    lows/Nor`Easters, storm track will greatly affect outcomes including
    the axis(es) of snow. While ensemble low clustering in GEFS/EPS
    members is still fairly good, an offshore solution with lesser if
    any impact is still in the cards. There are also at least one and an
    outside chance of two storm systems that may affect SNE between
    Saturday and midweek that could affect the large-scale regime enough
    to alter outcomes. While prospects for coastal storminess appear to
    be increasing, given the above and that is is essentially beyond 120
    hours out, we`d caution to not lock into any one model solution.
    Official forecast will bring high chance PoPs. Otherwise, there
    isn`t much we can say with any level of confidence at this point.
    Stay tuned!

    1. Thanks, Mark. My just 7 year old grandson is scheduled for eye surgery next Wednesday I note it says late Wednesday and I’ll keep my fingers crossed for that.

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