Wednesday December 16 2020 Forecast (7:48AM)

386 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (DECEMBER 16-20)

A nice cold and tranquil day that starts with sun & high clouds and will end with a slate grey overcast in advance of an approaching low pressure area that will bring us a mid December, or late autumn “winter storm”. Pretty certain now that low pressure will track just southeast of New England Thursday morning and midday, it’s weakening and elongating center passing south of Cape Cod and the Islands, with cold high pressure to the north in eastern Canada. This is a recipe for a decent winter weather event, although the low will actually be on a weakening trend instead of strengthening, like many do. Nevertheless, it will still have plenty of moisture with it and pack enough punch to deliver decent snow to most areas. Coastal flooding will not be a major factor with this event, with just some minor flooding around Thursday’s high tide, favoring east-facing and north-facing shores. Wind will be notable but not ferocious, as you’ll see in the detailed forecast below, but the wind direction will be key for snowfall, which leads me to the most difficult aspects of this forecast – the position and movement of a coastal front and the amount of mixing with and changing to rain takes place. Right now, the best bet is that mixing is a safe bet for the South Coast of RI/MA and up along the South Shore of MA to perhaps the Plymouth area during Thursday morning, and a quicker change to rain is pretty likely for a good portion of Cape Cod and the Islands. The determining factor in how much snow ends up falling in these mix/change areas will be how quickly that coastal frontal boundary moves back to the east as the storm goes by, returning cold air to these locations. These areas along and east of that frontal boundary that see a wetter snow and/or rain will also have a high risk of a flash freeze when that cold air returns. Further northwest, it’s a pretty straightforward situation: lower water content fluffy snow, with the only real complicating factor being potential drying patches or bands where intensity may get much lighter keeping some areas near the low end of the forecast range, or even them under-achieving expectation, so we will have to keep an eye out for that. Snowfall amounts will appear in the detailed forecast following this.. After this system departs, it’s dry and cold for Friday and Saturday with temperatures running below average for mid December. A bit of a moderation follows on Sunday but that’s also when we will be dealing with our next unsettled weather – a weaker system coming in from the west, with some light precipitation, favoring snow but with some mix possible as well.

TODAY: Sun followed by increasing clouds. Highs 27-34 Wind N up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Thickening overcast. Snow arriving late evening and overnight, mixing with or changing to rain Cape Cod & Islands. Lows 18-25 except 25-32 South Coast. Wind N to NE 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Overcast with snow except mix/rain South Coast and Cape Cod for a while before changing to snow during the afternoon west to east. Expected snow accumulation: 1-2 inches lower portion of outer Cape Cod (Chatham) as well as Nantucket and Martha’s Vineyard, 2-4 inches upper portion of outer Cape Cod (Provincetown) as well as Mid Cape, 4-8 inches Cape Cod Canal area as well as South Shore up to about Plymouth and westward to the immediate coast of RI, and 8-14 inches elsewhere. Highs 20-27 except 28-35 South Coast and 36-43 outer Cape Cod and Islands. Wind E to NE 15-25 MPH with gusts 35-45 MPH southeastern MA and southeastern RI, shifting to NW during the afternoon, and NE to NW 10-20 MPH with gusts 25-35 MPH elsewhere.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Blowing snow likely. Lows 10-18. Wind N to NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts. Wind chill often below 10.

FRIDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 27-34. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 10-17. Wind NW under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 30-37. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 20-27. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of light snow/mix. Highs 33-40. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (DECEMBER 21-25)

Potential unsettled weather events December 22 and 24-25. Temperatures variable, averaging near normal. Will re-evaluate these events next update.

DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 26-30)

One or two precipitation events possible during this period. Temperatures variable, averaging close to normal.

386 thoughts on “Wednesday December 16 2020 Forecast (7:48AM)”

  1. Thank You TK!
    The nice thing about a decent snow this time of year is that it usually sticks around for a while with the low sun angle. White Christmas this year!

    1. That is correct and I fully expect that a very large portion of our region will still have snow on the ground for Christmas.

  3. Good morning and thank you TK.

    Sorry, even though this “should” be a decent snow event, it does
    not qualify for the Jpd KOWABUNGA or even a HOLY CRAP BATMAN. Should things change, I’d be happy to give a shout out. 🙂

    1. Considering the cold air mass in place and the fact that it is still technically autumn, cowabunga or no cowabunga this will be a decent event for most of the region.

  4. I may be somewhat awol from this site from about 10AM onward as I have a couple of meetings and then after lunch we have a food delivery which is always fun. 🙂

    Hope to sneak in during parts of the meetings.

      1. I can’t stand meetings, but I must say with the virtual meetings, I can generally sneak in some work and weather. 🙂

        I do not fare well at meetings. Not at all.

    1. Yes it is, but not a blockbuster (Kowabunga) storm in my book. 🙂

      I will gratefully accept and enjoy it just the same.

  7. Waiting for the wind to turn on shore. Then we shall see
    IF any ocean effect snows start to set up, even if just snow showers.

  8. Thanks, TK…

    Teaching from home today. Our superintendent and school committee have said that a snow day is a snow day in our district. If we’re shut down tomorrow, there is no teaching or learning. We make up the day in June.

    1. Marshfield went with a called snow day being a remote school day. The one exception is ….. if there´s power loss in town, than it will be a snow day.

      1. I think that is the policy out this way, Tom. But since Sutton typically has power losses, I would not be surprised if it is a snow day

        I need to add that a LOT of cutting trees along the roadways seemed to have made a difference in the last two wind events. Well done Nat Grid

  11. Brrrrrr it’s a cold morning, but it doesn’t feel like snow is coming later. Maybe some surprises still in store with this storm. Felt like a wild child from the day it showed up on our radar

  12. Figuring out Marshfield´s very small microclimate of a December snowstorm with a 47F ocean temp ………

    You can´t show it reasonably on a potential snow map and the models don´t always get it …. but in 21 years down here, I´ve observed a crazy tight gradient over a few miles, even on these cold storms.

    Like Brant Rock could get 3, a mile west gets 5 and two miles west of that has 10.

  13. Generally in agreement with TK. Push everything north by a rung from yesterday. Its a general 12″ snowstorm. Up to 15″ in the best snow growth areas to the west instead of south west as noted yesterday. Trend 9-12″ closer to the coast. The Cape I was 6-9″ yesterday. That would look more like 3-6″ today and only 1-3″ at east / southeast facing cape coastal locations. Flood concerns are minor. Best wind stays south and west of our area. 15-25mph E/NE winds with gusts in the 40mph range.

    There is going to be a sneaky area that underperforms and I don’t have good feel for where that it is.

  14. Looking at the NAM kuchera snow totals, it looks like a general expectation of around 1 inch per hour, sometimes 1.5 inch per hour at least in Eastern MA. That is a nice snow rate, BUT not
    blockbuster worthy. I want to see 2-3 inches per hour for that. 🙂

  15. The pending excitement is much fun.

    Will be tough to get over 12 inches in a lot of areas but there could be some sneaky 15-20 inch band somewhere or just a bad measurement. Since it’s mainly very light and fluffy snow there are usually huge errors in measurements.

    1. I am hopeful ocean enhancements puts us over the top Hadi.
      That’s why I want to see some ocean snow set up prior to the
      main event, so I know we’re getting the enhancement.

  22. Does anyone have an idea of what we are looking at right along the 95/rt. 16 area during the morning commute? Trying to figure out the work situation.

  24. OS you crack me up. 1-2 inches per hour is pretty darn good . You are a tough man to please . The way the past few winters have gone this is going to feel like a blockbuster. Still think a few areas will sneak out 15-18 inches.

  26. Spent an hour or so last night very happily clearing out space in the garage to squeeze the second car in. Looking forward to this like the premiere of a movie I’ve been wanting to see! Thanks to everyone who posts so faithfully. I enjoy learning and following it all immensely. Happy Holidays.

    1. At least you have a garage. Living in the city, I do not have that luxury. At least I have a driveway. 🙂

  27. NAM.. Slightly overcooked. No surprise there.

    HRRR is showing us that it’s useless for this type of event based on its current programming.

    1. You think 12 inches for boston is overcooked? So you think boston comes in at 9 or 10? 12 inches appears right in line to me.

        1. Fair enough. Is that for Logan or my house? There is usually a difference? I could see the snow be drier here than at Logan and that could account for a couple of inches more accumulation here.

          I will try to get a measurement tomorrow afternoon, if I can get out there without be approached by non-mask wearing neighbors.

  29. I am selling on the 20 inch snowfall forecasts for my area and buying on the 12 inch snowfall forecast for my area.

    1. Hahaha.

      I’m going 9-11 for Sutton. Daughter said 13. She uses the same scientific reasoning I use. 13 is another Mac number. I suppose we could have gone with Mac’s 21 🙂

  31. Speaking of wind I would not be surprised if places in SNE get to near blizzard conditions at times during this storm.

  33. Anyone going to do with Ralphs Weather Obs Tweeted for this storm? This list was tweeted out Tuesday night.

    Sleep tonight.
    Nap tomorrow.
    Stay up all tomorrow night
    Dig out Thursday morning.

    1. My plan had been sleep long last night and nap today to stay up as late as I could tonight. I didn’t sleep well last night..,go figure. But hopefully will nap today

      1. Vicki I have not slept well the past few nights in anticipation for the storm. I would get up during the night look at my phone and check out the latest snowfall projections from the forecast models. One thing on that list I will be doing for sure is digging out Thursday morning.

          1. I rescheduled the appointment I had for tomorrow 8am, so now I can anticipate the snow without that stress.
            Traditionally I prefer any significant snow to wait till January in order to reduce the stress of having to get into town for Nutcracker or a concert in bad driving conditions — but that doesn’t apply this year!

      2. Since it’s not till midnight I’ll get up at 4am I am so excited guys to be home . A good source thinks I’m good fir 10” here In pembroke & may miss the mix . With my knee I’m just figuring if I should get a plow or just do it myself . I just do not want any disappointment with this storm as it’s not often I’m home

  38. A number of districts will still have school tomorrow with remote learning, the wave of the future. Traditional “snow days” will soon be a relic from the past. No more having to make up days in June.

    A one to two foot BLIZZARD (on a weekday) will eventually be “just another school day”. 😉

    I do have to say though that I don’t envy the current and future generations of school kids. Oh well.

    1. I think it depends. Remote learning is already well set up for this school year. Other school years in a non pandemic area it might not be so calculated. Add to that some kids are expected to help with the snow removal and some areas can get power outages (and what are they going to do call the power company to get a log of all the streets without power and when?) I don’t think snow days will be totally extinct.

    3. thats the best snowfall map projection, I believe.

      With NE flow, it has the shadowing west of Worcester.

      It has a much more believeable northern New England projection.

      It has that traditional Boston-southwest suburbs Ocean effect enhancement.

  41. I am sticking with my maps from last night. This is based on what I am seeing on current higher atmo observations at the initialization of the model runs. I am not sold on that much further north trend that the models were showing. Will add that within the purple you could see localized areas of 20 inches where the heavier bands form. Also probably lower end along the coast but coastal enhancement may keep the higher amounts possible. https://twitter.com/Souza101Matt/status/1339261113201008640

  42. The one thing I like on the 12z GFS is the continuation of light to steady precip a little later in the day.

    I felt like the 00z NAM and GFS were quick to shut the precip off.

  43. I see on the EURO and GFS a thin, colder contour of 850 mb temps overlapping that region of Boston to Providence during the day Thursday. It matches up well with some of the last bands of precipitation. I think the 850 mb temps cool under the heaviest precip. Could this be a hint at some heavier OE bands around midday tomorrow?

  44. Based on current radar trends, I wonder if snow will break out a bit earlier, by 7 to the west and by 9 to the east.

    1. I’ll have to say I am looking forward to just watching this storm unfold on radar now. I am all modeled out!

  45. Thanks TK. Been a very busy day so far…on video calls for 3 hours straight. Way behind on the stuff I actually need to get done thanks to all these calls every day (and too damn much storm tracking :))

    Still looking good for a nice dumping of snow everywhere. I am a bit concerned for some snow shadowing here with that NE flow. Models have been picking up on that on and off. There are always haves and have nots with these storms and this one will be no different.

  47. I love the link. I love the fun comments. I love the anticipation. Great day. Still waiting for my grandson to get out of surgery for his lazy eye so you have all kept my mind busy. Thank you

    For schools…..the ones right around us have called a snow day. Sutton will have a half a day since we are full remote. I am hearing on FB that many parents will let their kids have the full day. Good for them !!!!

    1. Hope all goes well with your grandson!

      Coventry has called off in person learning for tomorrow and going to do a remote day unless there are power outages, then they will cancel altogether.

      1. Thank you both. My son just messaged he is out of surgery and resting. Now I can truly enjoy the storm. 🙂

        2. Amblyopia?

          Our son had that, but they were able to address with a patch and glasses.

          My wife had that surgery was she was eight, almost too late for it to work, but it did. Where was the surgery?
          UMass Medical Center?

          Hoping for a speedy recovery.

  49. JJ – Ryan Hanranhan just posted on the American Weather forum he is thinking jack area for Litchfield County into the southern Berks. Contemplating painting a 16-24″ swath there. You may be our winner for this storm!

  50. Dry air eating up the leading edge of lighter snow, as expected. No snow reports in the NYC area yet but it is precipitating in central NJ and Philly.

  51. Mark thanks for passing that along. I was thinking with the cold temps and higher snow ratios a foot and half is in the realm of possibility. Looking at everything I am think a foot of snow where I am has a good chance of happening.

  54. Ryan Hanrahan
    @ryanhanrahan
    5h

    Everything looks big. Major snowstorm on the way. Who’s excited? ❄️ ❄️ ❄️ #nbcct

      2. What the GFS was showing with the suppressed solution certainly could have happened, and it has before. But when you have 10 other models disagreeing with it, the outlier is usually wrong.

        1. Usually correct, yes. Yet with a cold strong high to the north and lots of dry air to overcome, a more suppressed solution cannot be discounted. I’ve seen storms like this take a right turn last minute that was not picked up by the models cutting down on anticipated totals. I like TK’s forecast of 8-14 with less to the southeast and north of pike and more wherever that stationary band sets up. The wildcard in eastern MA will be whether ocean enhancement will occur and how much influence the coastal front has on snow totals in those locales.

  56. Quick peak at the SREF on the cod site and quite bullish. It’s been a while since I have seen this model show this much snow.

  58. From Ryan Hanrahan
    We are expecting some hellacious snowfall rates between about 10 p.m. and 2 a.m. I wouldn’t be surprised to see 2 to 3 inch per hour snow rates in towns.

    2. I know what the description says, but I think its percentiles.

      So, if the storm produces to the 75th percentile, it will produce this

      If the storm produces to the 90th percentile, it will produce this.

      There are fewer that reach the higher percentiles, making them the highest percentile, if that makes any sense.

  62. I like Eric F´s new snow map this afternoon and I like on the fresh NWS map, they´ve brought a 4-6 inch snow contour within a mile or 2 of the coast all the way up to Hingham/Cohasset.

    2. I can’t believe anywhere except southern coastal areas flip to rain. This air is cold and dense, it will win out.

  70. Updated snow map from Ryan Hanrahan. He has increased his totals….

    Ryan Hanrahan
    @ryanhanrahan
    1h

    Final call on snow totals. Still expecting about 10″ in New Haven and about a foot in Hartford. Will have to watch for some mixing in SE CT which may hold down totals a bit. Most confident in heavy totals high terrain of NW CT up into the Berkshires where 20″ is possible. #nbcct

    https://twitter.com/ryanhanrahan/status/1339311543264157706?s=20

  71. Katie… I apologize for not replying earlier. Didn’t see your question from this morning until just now. Your 8-14 inch snowfall should be 75% done by about that time. If you can avoid a commute, do so. Good luck!

  72. Too bad most of the real heavy stuff occurs during the nighttime hours. Would have liked to have enjoyed the show during daylight.

  74. Philly has had heavy snow the last 2 hours.

    I bring that up because there had become a debate after yesterday’s model runs if Philly would get that inch of snow before changing to something other than snow.

    I believe this shows philly is running a bit colder than modeled, so, based on that, that HRRR run is highly unlikely.

  75. Philly streak of 651 days without an inch or more of snow has ended. The record was 663 days back in the early 70s.

    1. Wow, that’s a long time. Their ob has had heavy snow the last 2 hrs, preceded by 2 hrs of moderate snow, so, in theory, they should have received at least 3 inches of snow, if not more.

    1. That’s remarkable in the sense of being situated in between polar or arctic air and the Gulf Stream.

      You’d think something, even a minor wave, would form over 3 months to throw some moisture into cold enough air.

      But, the atmosphere and its patterns can be stubborn, I guess.

  77. Tom you were talking earlier about Philly running colder.This was from Meteorologist Steve DiMartino
    So I first want to be clear, that these observations can change, but as I stand at 4 PM, the atmospheric environment with this storm IS colder.

  78. Just curious. Will Philly and NYC changeover later? I know DC already changed to rain awhile ago.

    “Usually” when DC changes, Boston does too eventually. Of course this time certainly won’t be the case.

    Likewise when DC stays all snow, Boston does as well…or misses out entirely.

  79. Philip there is thinking NYC might not change over to snow and end up close to a foot of snow. The Philly forecast from what I have heard was tough as they were right on the line from little snow or several inches of snow.

    1. Leading edge of the snow through Danbury and Bridgeport now too. JJ you should be seeing flakes soon, if not already.

  82. This comment applies to easternmost SE Mass ….

    I don’t know if I buy a flash freeze tomorrow ….

    The reason I say this is …… this is not an intensifying system that bombs in the Gulf of Maine.

    It’s an area of low pressure elongating out east of us and a piece of the high remains behind north of Maine and I see N/NE flow continuing along easternmost Mass and the Cape for a while after the storm passes.

    So, I don’t think Plymouth or cape cod crashes from 34 to 22 tomorrow, but rather inches down slowly from 34 to 30 or 31 and then kind of holds there while everyone else radiates to really cold temps Thursday night and again Friday night.

    Also, the 18z gfs continues ocean effect now til well into the evening.

  83. Mark I am starting to see the first flakes of this storm system.
    I am not buying the HRRR model bringing the mixing line to my area.

  84. Winds have picked up here in the last hour or two. It’s 27, but, boy, it has felt colder than that all day.

  85. There seems to be a couple of weather events that could be in the form of rain starting this weekend…. How likely is it that this snow is wiped out by these other systems to deprive us of a white X-Mas vs these systems adding to the snow?

    1. I think there are some cold air damming signs on the following systems that will help inland areas out a lot. It may compact and get rained on a bit, but if we get as much as predicted, I think inland areas will have some snow left.

      Down here, south and east of Boston, cold air damming is rare, so, I’m hoping for snow piles to remain.

  88. I just want to mention that in case folks don’t know….there is a storm of some sort close by. I have one of those lowed pressure headaches 😉

      1. Hi folks. I’m a voyeur but wanted to say hello! Nice to be back to see your comments. Keep up the great work forecasting the weather!

    1. Hopefully soon! I’m impressed by how quickly it went from nothing to an appreciable rate. Literally just a couple of minutes

  91. This reminds me of the storm we had back in November 2018 where it ramped so quickly and two and a half hours after it started I had close to four inches.

  95. Mark I started how you did and now the snow is picking up. I have a dusting as well. I am not buying the HRRR getting a mix into your area.

    1. I wouldn’t even bother with the HRRR right now. It’s pretty clear that model is an epic fail for this type of an event.

  97. My friend in New York City said small flakes are literally flying by her windows. She thought a couple inches an hour. She has a wall of windows so I can’t imagine how amazing the view is.

  98. Wind picked up here a bit ago also. 23 with a 13 DP. Ring camera is picking up a few flakes. I tried to sit outside but forgot a jacket

    1. More than me ? I am Beyond excited to be not working this & enjoying from home . I’ll be up at 4:30 if anyone wants to message for storm talk

  102. ** Snow Remains On Schedule ***

    As of 7 pm leading edge of snow is now across the Southern Half
    of CT, Southern RI including Westerly and Newport and now
    Marthas Vineyard, moving steadily northward. Cold/dry air taking
    time to saturate with dew pts still in the single digits across
    northern MA. Moderate to heavy snow not far away, with DXR and
    BDR reporting 1/2 mile vsby. Thus snow will become moderate to
    heavy within an hour or two of its onset.

    Very heavy snow across Long Island and coming onshore to
    Southwest CT. Radar sampling 40+ dbz and high CC values
    supporting all snow. This area of snow will be the onset of 1-2
    inch hourly snowfall rates with isolated 3 inch per rates
    possible. Farther to the west in PA reports of 3 inches per
    hour have been common. Thus heavy snow remains on schedule for
    MA/RI/CT overnight along with a low risk of isolated
    thundersnow.

    Given previous forecast captures these details nicely, no major
    changes with this update.

  103. Snow appears to be coming in a little earlier and dry air is being overpowered. I suspect Boston sees first flakes within an hour. It may catch some folks on the roadways by surprise as it may come in like a wall – fast and furious.

  105. Just took a look at the latest 18z Euro and RPM. Both are really hitting that snow shadow over NE CT and central MA pretty hard. Still concerned this is going to cap the higher end range snow totals in my area after the initial surge of heavy snow. Anything less than a foot would be a bust for me at this point 🙂

    1. Been biting my nails over that since yesterday. I’m going to be on the razors edge of that if it plays out. Let’s hope it stays out in the valley where it belongs.

      2. rather it in central MA and let the heavier snow fall in the Merrimack Valley compared to what usually happens in which my area gets the unfortunate dry slot

  107. Hard enough to pin point banding as well as dry slots like these. Don’t worry Mark I don’t think we will see much in the way of dry slotting here. Tons of moisture and lift to work with here.

  109. Mark I was watching that band earlier moving into Fairfield County wondering if it would maintain its intensity coming up my way and it did. I had bare ground at 6pm and just after 9pm that ground is snow covered.

  110. Snow picking up here as well JJ, about a half inch on the ground.

    Man, it is absolutely ripping in those bands in central PA…2-4″ per hour rates.

    1. That heavy band is moving north toward you. I am wondering if we will see some more bands setup in the next couple hours. A couple dry slots moving northeast toward NYC. I am hoping that doesn’t get in here.

  116. Everything is on track. Timing is just as it was expected to be, not early, not late.

    No changes to the forecast posted this morning at this time.

  127. Heavy snow band about to push into Massachusetts from southwest to northeast. Look for snow intensity to really ramp up soon.

  128. Thank You All for all you do ! I have been following for years !
    Still nothing in Essex But will update in the AM .

  132. Thank goodness we have dew point depressions cause it’s already 30F at Logan, 32F in Marshfield and the wind is ENE.

  133. Heaviest snow I have seen here in a LONG time. This band means business!! 2-3″ per hour rates. Will be heading towards Vicki and SC next ….

    1. This makes sense. Heavy snow west from the lift with the upper features and ocean enhanced somewhere in eastern Mass.

  140. Snowfall reports received as of 1030 pm Wednesday evening. The highest snowfall totals thus far are: 18.5″ in Dushore PA, and 14″ in Lock Haven PA, Vintondale PA, and Sandy Ridge PA.

  141. Here in the wet pasty snow zone, keeping the heat up tonight.

    5-6 inches of wet snow and 40 mph wind gusts, I wouldn’t be surprised by some power issues in the immediate coastal south shore towns.

    1. Epic fail. I thought the cold would hold on much tougher. Usually does but the storm the other days pushed further away quicker so it allowed the H to move and allow this to happen.

      1. And every other model caught on to that DAYS ago, except the GFS. Our biggest snowstorms here in New England occur with a strong high like that to our north.

      1. I think there are going to be a lot of surprised people up there tomorrow AM (including my mother) when they are digging out of 2 Feet of snow.

  143. Just measured 4″ here in Coventry. That band basically doubled our snow total in about 45 min.

    Band is through now but still coming down good.

    1. I’m sure there are many of us who just lurk. I’ve been lurking since the bz weather blog days.
      You guys can be intimidating with all your knowledge- but I certainly appreciate you sharing that knowledge with the rest of us.

    2. Ha ! One location is Charlestown RI, right on the ocean with a nice state campground with no electric hookup.

      We went their last week of this past July. It was 93F with a 75F dewpoint. I couldn’t take the heat, I came home for a few days.

    2. I am just missing out on the band to the south of me. still just a coating and its been snowing for about 2 hours.

  152. 5.5″ and just ripping here with even heavier bands incoming from the south. Should have no issues getting to double digits within a few hours.

  153. I know I need to go to bed if I’m going to get up before first light to enjoy this but I don’t want to lol . House is clean , wood ready to go and full breakfast being cooked in the am if the troops get up . There just glad I’m not working this one as am I .

  154. Heavy snow in Westwood. About to become very heavy. Serious yellow echoes moving in soon. Intense bands all across CT, RI and moving up into Mass.

  159. Probably a couple inches down but it’s not coming down like super crazy yet . Good night I’ll be back on at 5am .

  160. Well that was fun…another 2.5″ in the last hour and up to 8.5″ now!

    Radar is getting ragged to my south though as the dreaded dry slot moves in. Hopefully it fills back in as the storm makes it turn east, but I think my remaining accumulation is going to come in spurts and a little more gradually.

    Boston area getting hammered now!

  161. Binghamton, NY getting obliterated. 23″ reports from there already with that death band just parked over them. Would not be surprised to see some 3 foot amounts come out of that area.

  162. Late night update: No changes. Most areas in the 8-14 zone I broadbrushed will end up in the upper half of that range. The highest uncertainty remains in the wetter snow areas to the southeast to see how much additional they get when the cold air returns toward the end of the storm. No major surprises ongoing. Further west, outside the WHW area, there are some impressive bands and resultant totals…

  164. 9.5″ Coventry, CT. Snow lightening up a bit as we get into the drier slot on the radar. Precip looking more ragged and convective in nature from here on out, at least down this way.

  166. So.. umm who else is getting ridiculous 4 inches in an hour snowfall… Around 1am had 1.3 inches, now have 6.4. Insane snow band going through. Not sure about drifting as I just measured on the deck so it might be some of that as well but man is it snowing. Its also some nice Powder. Only wish I could get to Wachusett tomorrow.

    1. I believe it…I had 3″ in a hour…mounds up fast when it is pure fluff like this. Unfortunately I am dry slotted now and it is just spritzing at the moment after 9.5″

    1. Nice, looks like about the same here. Heading to sleep for a few hours. Still more accumulating snow to come but rates should be much lighter from here on out.

  172. Morning : first report 32 with about a solid 6-7 inches my best guess . To my surprise it’s barely snowing ( is it that dry slot ) no windy conditions either this can’t be it is it as if so disappointed I’m up .

  173. I think I have a different interpretation of dry slot ….

    If it’s: we are south of the heaviest bands of precip associated with the upper features, then yes, we’ve dry slotted.

    If it’s: the near ending or ending of falling precip, then we haven’t.

    1. So took a walk out front probably 5 inches I don’t think 7 . Seems to be a wetter snow falling . As I’m watching ch 5 I’m hearing it wasn’t snowing hard here or there an hour but as Cindy said the heavy van F’s are moving in . So I’ll continue to monitor thinking this can’t be it yet. My plow made his first driveway pass at 4am this morning

      1. Ok that was a hack job post . Here or there an hour ago but as Cindy just said the heavy snow bans are moving in now .

        1. You’ll do just fine. You’re still looking at nearing a foot when all is set and done. Just not going to see the enormous totals like northwest MA and eastern NY as those locales are dealing with deformation banding. The heaviest snowfall rates are pretty much done in our area but will still see bursts of moderate snow throughout the morning before ending early afternoon. You could even pick up minor accumulation thereafter from ocean effect snows IMO.

          1. For pembroke Arod I hope so but like I said probably 5-6 down now . Either way I’m home enjoying it & would love a couple more before I go back to work on the 12th . By the way I love seeing you here as I always enjoy your thoughts .

      1. That’s a beautiful picture Tom! Looks like a beast. Thankfully, it is moving nearly due east, albeit quickly, otherwise any northward movement would genuinely “dry slot” us and end our fun for good. 🙂

          1. Is that the upper level low moving across PA? I think I can spot it though not nearly as distinctly as the surface feature.

              1. Ahhh, thanks. It’s actually moving northeast through CT. Can see it better now on mid level imagery!

  175. As always, great job by TK, JMA and WxWatcher.

    Also, great job by Mark, JpDave, JJ, Hadi and others for correctly questioning the GFS. Also, thanks to JpDave, Mark and others for all the model links and other info. Makes this place the best place to be for weather.

    1. Tom, I never forecasted a thing. I just reported model outcomes. 🙂 🙂
      But thanks anyway.

      How is it down you way? Cement falling from the sky?

      1. Last I looked an hr ago, I’d guesstimate 6 inches of very wet snow.

        I wouldn’t be shocked if we have mixed with, changed to rain. I am so close to the ocean though.

    3. Greer job by many folks it’s been a blast so far , many thanks !! They all keep saying on the news this is here most of today .

  176. Good morning gang,

    Snowing pretty damn hard here in JP, but I have to tell you,
    I am NOT impressed with the amount of snow on the ground.
    It has been snowing for 8 hours and we have perhaps 6 or 7 inches on the ground. Where were those 2-3 inch per hour snow rates. Ha, didn’t happen as far as I can tell.

    Right at the moment, probably snowing 1 – 1.5 inches per hour.
    Really nice right now.

    Also at 32 degrees here, but I expect that to start dropping within the hour.

    1. 23 at Beverly and 32 at Logan. Not many miles separate the 2, so that colder air is destine to arrive shortly.

      1. Yes and I’m suspecting that’s when we start getting more ???? It’s 32 here as well old salty .

        2. It should precip most of the day down here. The heaviest bands are done, those that came through 11pm-3am.

          Today’s more of a thick misty type snow, the kind that from the weather doesn’t look impressive, but you get outside and realize there’s still a steady snow falling.

          When our temps drop some later, that can only help it add up a little quicker today.

  177. 5 Am obs from Logan, snow with 3/4 mile visibility.

    That is just a steady very decent LIGHT snow, not even moderate. Need 1/2 mile vis for that. Geez!

      1. Looking around the area, most reporting locations were reporting 1/2 mile visibility in Moderate Snow, which accumulates at roughly 1 inch per hour. 🙂

  178. The cold high hung in there and did its job.
    The Ocean is just under 47 degrees and even with an ENE wind
    at 30 mph with gusts to 43, it has remained all snow at Logan at 32 degrees. Pretty impressive cold air mass.

  179. Just checked outside by opening my front door.

    It is a mix of wet snow and rain now.

    I picked up a handful of snow, squeezed and got a pretty good amount of water. Good ole eastern Marshfield cement.

    Gonna be one of those high, thick, big block wall at the end of the driveway from the plow.

  182. Happy to see the harbor buoy wind direction start to back, from 070 to 060.

    Some temp drop may commence before we get to 360, as the buoy air temps off of the Maine coast are much colder.

    If that wind could get to 020 or 030. I think that would halt the south shore immediate coasts temp rises.

  184. Looked out and watched some neighbors shoveling.

    Now looks to be about 8 inches here.

    With the temperature down and decent snow falling, we should easily make a foot and then anything after that is gravy.

  185. Morning. Coming down at a really good clip. Took a stroll outside and did a few measurements coming in at an of 9.3 average. Easily will exceed a foot, Temps is 25. Will report again around 9.

  188. Truly a soaking mix of wind blown rain and wet snow. The trees have snow in them, but they are soaked with water dripping away, same from the roof. The snow on the ground isn´t really melting, just getting more and more water logged. Pretty breezy, but very manageable on that front.

  189. According to my trusty ruler, looks like it’s about 9 inches in Chelmsford so far. Hi Everyone!

    1. Needham reporting a foot and we must be close. It’s been about 2 inches the last hour. Just pouring snow right now.

  194. Exactly what I was afraid of happened. Been fighting a. Snow hole for almost the duration. Can seem to stay filled in. Unless the Binghamton express moves in, I don’t see us even getting a foot just WNW of Worcester.

    1. Worcester wins more than it loses with snowstorms so I gotta just eat my peas on this one.

      Enjoy your storm Boston! lots of winter and I’ll be back with some yardstick snow at some point! (Maybe)

Comments are closed.