Tuesday July 6 2021 Forecast (7:42AM)

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DAYS 1-5 (JULY 6-10)

Some of you may have been woken up by, or already were awake to see & hear, the overnight warm front thunderstorm activity that developed across central MA and moved eastward in the pre-dawn hours. This activity, while expected as at least a possibility, was a little bit more concentrated than I had thought it might be – an indication of some nice instability in the atmosphere which does not need daytime heating to be taken advantage of. We see that, espsecially with warm fronts, during the nighttime / early morning hours at times. The last of these showers and storms are exiting via the NH Seacoast and Cape Cod as I write this update. Our unstable atmosphere will be with us for a good part of today, and a trough moving across the region, with the aid of some heating, will trigger more showers and thunderstorms midday through afternoon from west to east. Some of these storms have the potential to become severe, with damaging wind being the greatest threat. A few of these storms may produce hail as well. Any thunderstorm can produce a torrential downpour enough to cause localized flooding that is hazardous for travel, and of course lightning, which is dangerous no matter how “strong” the storm is. So be aware of this today, especially if you have travel plans or any outdoor plans. Things settle down this evening after the trough goes by, but we remain in a warm and humid air mass tomorrow and with an approaching cold front we will likely see another round or two of showers and thunderstorms in the region. The severe potential for tomorrow’s activity is a little bit lower, but still some potent storms are possible. The cold front settles to a position just south of New England or near the South Coast Wednesday night, then sits there, and will be the running board for a couple low pressure waves, including the remains of TS Elsa, which technically may be more than “remains”, as it may hold onto its identity rather nicely for a system that’s been over land for a while, and pass close to or even right over the region at some point during the first half or two thirds of Friday, based on current timing. This is when we have our potential to have our most widespread moderate to heavy rainfall. I remain optimistic for an area of high pressure moving in behind all of this for a nicer summer day on Saturday.

TODAY: Variably cloudy. An early-morning shower or thunderstorm near the NH Seacoast and Cape Cod, then scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms from west to east this afternoon, with isolated severe storms possible. Highs 83-90, cooler South Coast. Dew point rising to upper 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. A shower or thunderstorm possible early in RI and southeastern MA. Patchy fog. Lows 66-73. Dew point upper to middle 60s. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms afternoon and evening. Highs 83-90, cooler South Coast. Dew point upper 60s to 70. Wind variable to SW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Areas of fog. Lows 60-67. Dew point falling to near 60. Wind variable to N up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely including the chance of thunderstorms, mainly mid afternoon on. Highs 73-80. Dew point 60s. Wind variable to E 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Showers likely. Chance of thunderstorms. Areas of fog. Lows 62-69. Dew point 60s. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Cloudy with widespread showers and embedded thunderstorms., ending from west to east during the afternoon. Areas of fog. Highs 68-75. Dew point upper 60s. Wind variable 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Breaking clouds. Areas of fog. Lows 60-67. Dew point lower 60s. Wind variable to W up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 75-82. Dew point falling to upper 50s. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 11-15)

A little more optimistic for slower timing of movement of features meaning that high pressure can hold on for mostly dry weather July 11 to finish off the weekend, followed by a new stretch of unsettled weather as we have a series of disturbances move through with higher humidity and episodes of showers and thunderstorms at times.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 16-20)

Indications of a little stronger high pressure to the south and some upper ridging which increase the heat potential but may reduce the frequency of showers and storms.

105 thoughts on “Tuesday July 6 2021 Forecast (7:42AM)”

  3. Thank you TK,
    Seems there is a lot of upstream convective debris keeping us in the overcast. Do you think this will will limit the severity of the storms for us this afternoon? Perhaps lower cape than modeled?

  4. Latest from SPC

    https://www.spc.noaa.gov/public/cwa/images/BOX_swody1.png

    discussion: (SC, this should answer your question)

    …Northeast States and southern New England…
    A low-amplitude mid-level impulse will push east off the
    NH/southwest ME coast shortly. Despite this appearing to be poorly
    timed with respect to the diurnal heating cycle, a belt of enhanced
    700-mb westerlies will trail to the west across southern New England
    to PA, with 45 kts sampled by the 12Z Buffalo sounding. Convection
    should still be able to intensify from the lee of the Lower Great
    Lakes to a lee surface trough across the DE Valley to southern New
    England. A plume of moderate MLCAPE from 1500-2500 J/kg is
    anticipated within these regions. Despite flow weakening with
    height, the enhanced lower-level flow will support serial downbursts
    with multicell clusters spreading across most of the Northeast
    Megalopolis.

  7. Heat severe weather potential and possible leftovers from Elsa affecting us later in the week. I am glad I am here this week for this weather action and not away on vacation like I will be next week.

  9. Thanks JPD absolutely answers my question. Suns been trying to poke out here in the last 15 minutes. It will be a radar watching afternoon for sure. My youngest son has a baseball tournament game tonight at 7:30 hoping we will avoid a rainout.

  10. I expect a severe thunderstorm watch will be issued at some point this afternoon. This does not look like a big severe weather day but some areas could get hit hard with those damaging wind gusts.

  11. Thanks TK.

    So many of our biggest severe events have started with overnight/morning warm frontal convection. I remember it vividly on 6/1/11. Not that this will be that of course, but I expect a higher end event for Northeast standards today. I think eastern MA is in play, but IMO the greatest risk will be over west/central MA, CT, Long Island, and northeast NJ. The environment may be conducive to unusually strong downdraft winds. Could be some hail, though as usual in summer the warm/moist near-surface air should limit that. And I think the tornado risk is non-zero, but relatively high cloud bases will limit that (but also contribute to the higher than normal straight line wind threat).

    The 12z morning soundings from Albany and Long Island (especially the former, with 36 kt of 0-6km shear) are eye catching.

  15. Sunshine on days like today is not our friend as that only destabilizes the atmosphere. Like WxWatcher I do remember those showers and storms that came with the warm front on the morning of 6/1/11. The severe parameters for New England were off the charts that day.

  16. Man, things were rocking in Clinton last night around 3AM with that storm that came through. Lots and lots of lighting and house shaking thunder. Woke everyone but the dog up!

    1. I wondered where it was. We had one quiet clap of thunder I didn’t see lightning but eyes were closed.

  17. Quick peak at the 12z NAM for late tomorrow afternoon and evening there are some parameters favorable for a locally strong or severe thunderstorm. The SPC has much of SNE in a marginal risk for tomorrow.

  19. Thanks, TK!!

    Happy Birthday, SSK!

    Overnight activity stayed to our north.

    I’ve mentioned this before here, but, the most severe thunderstorm I can ever remember occurred on August 10, 2000 with supercells that came through during the early morning hours. The National Weather Service office in Taunton evacuated the floor in anticipation of a tornado. It was the most vivid and intense lightning I have ever seen!

    Here’s the Skywarn write-up for that event:

    http://users.rcn.com/rmacedo/aug10.htm

  20. IF Elsa, whether remains or something still organized, pass to the west of eastern New England Friday, dp´s in the mid 70s not out of the question for a few to several hours.

  21. Re: Baseball PA announcers.

    There was a mention of Sherm Feller (Red Sox) and Bob Sheppard (Yankees).

    Both announcers were professional and understated in a day and age that the baseball game was the show.

    After Bob passed away, I believed that Derek Jeter requested that a recording of Bob Sheppard be used to announce his at-bat.

    The great announcer Jon Miller used to do a wonderful impression of Bob Sheppard which I found. It starts at 3:00. You’ll get a laugh of Jon imitating Bob ordering breakfast at 5:45.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9gUBuUX_YXo&t=183s

    1. You are correct Bob Sheppard’s voice recording after his death was used when Derrek Jeter came up to bat as Jeter requested that.

  23. Enjoy your milestone birthday SSK!!
    I’m 9 months behind you on that not so magic number.

  24. What’s this????
    Another round of showers passing through. Despite what has been posted, will this limit the instability for later????

  25. From NWS Boston
    No major changes to the forecast late this morning. Latest
    mesoanalysis continued to show mixed layer CAPE values of
    1000 J/kg or greater, with surface-based CAPE values in excess
    of 1500 J/kg, across most of southern New England. Thus, will
    still need to monitor thunderstorm potential going into this
    afternoon.

  26. Twitter rant from Ryan Hanrahan on Elsa

    So now we’re back to a tropical system south of New England and not a post tropical system. I don’t think the NHC could make this any more confusing if they tried. Good grief.
    I think this is now the third time they’ve changed this? Just pick one and stick with it. The setup hasn’t changed at all so I have no idea why we go through this exercise every single storm up here.

    1. The Trajectory of those storms “may” take storms South
      of Boston. Will continue to watch and see what else pops.

    1. Yes ….. we´re going to try and sneak a little beach time in. I think, based on futurecasts, we might get til 3 or 4pm in, hopefully.

  29. Thanks, TK.

    Happy Birthday, SSK. May your 50’s be great!

    I woke up this morning wondering whether I had dreamed about a thunderstorm. Apparently it wasn’t a dream…

    1. Severe Thunderstorm Watch
      for Worcester County

      Issued by National Weather Service
      Boston, MA
      1:14 PM EDT Tue, Jul 6, 2021

      THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 335 IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS

      IN CONNECTICUT THIS WATCH INCLUDES 3 COUNTIES

      IN NORTHERN CONNECTICUT

      HARTFORD TOLLAND WINDHAM

      IN MASSACHUSETTS THIS WATCH INCLUDES 10 COUNTIES

      IN CENTRAL MASSACHUSETTS

      WORCESTER

      IN EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS

      MIDDLESEX NORFOLK SUFFOLK

      IN NORTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS

      ESSEX

      IN SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS

      BRISTOL PLYMOUTH

      IN WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS

      FRANKLIN HAMPDEN HAMPSHIRE

      IN RHODE ISLAND THIS WATCH INCLUDES 5 COUNTIES

      IN NORTHERN RHODE ISLAND

      BRISTOL KENT PROVIDENCE

      IN SOUTHERN RHODE ISLAND

      NEWPORT WASHINGTON

      THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF BLOCK ISLAND, BOSTON, BRISTOL, BROCKTON, FALL RIVER, FITCHBURG, FOXBOROUGH, FRAMINGHAM, GLOUCESTER, GREENFIELD, HARTFORD, LAWRENCE, LOWELL, NEW BEDFORD, NEWPORT, NORTHAMPTON, PLYMOUTH, PROVIDENCE, PUTNAM, QUINCY, SPRINGFIELD, TAUNTON, UNION, VERNON, WARWICK, WESTERLY, WILLIMANTIC, AND WORCESTER.

  33. Elsa is up to 70 mph sustained winds now and hurricane warnings have been posted for the west coast of Florida

    1. Interesting. I think the pressures are comparing better to the euro projected pressures and the euro has a 994mb system across SE Mass.

  36. I still say that it will be close for Boston, unless something else
    pops to the North as all cells slide ESE. They looks like they
    “may” pass just South of Boston. Still a ways out there, so who knows for sure, but that is my gut talking to me.

  37. Severe thunderstorm warning heading just north of me reading the warning 70 mph winds ping pong size hail.

  41. Ok, now it appears that boston may be in line for something after all. Storm out by Fitchburg/Leominster kind of stretched to
    the North. IF that hold together or regenerates, Boston would be in line. Interesting to watch it unfold.

  42. I don’t think much is going to occur from Boston northward other than what is already there. That stuff should fade as it moves east and the concentration will be dropping east southeast along and south of I-90.

  43. Radar looks like a Christmas tree lit up on steroids. Part of Sutton is in a warning box. Not my part yet. Time to go sit out and see what approaches

    1. And I’m too late to the party. I can hear thunder already. We have yet to be warned though

  45. I know I´m ahead of today´s action ……

    wonder if some area in New England is suspectible to a predecessor rain event sometime Thursday night into midday Friday ahead of Elsa´s passing ……..

    Going to be a stalled frontal system somewhere in the northeast, where warm, humid southwest flow aloft is going to over-run a cooler surface airmass.

    And then, would that same area get Elsa´s rains ?? Potential big, big rain producer Friday.

  46. Thanks everyone for the birthday wishes . I called in sick lol & went in my pool after breakfast in marshfield this morning. Many , many thanks .

  50. At this point, they might want to just draw a yellow box around Massachusetts. I see Scituate in warned area also

    1. Yes, at least on radar, that is quite a healthy looking cell between Acton and Woburn that may have its sights set on both Boston and Scituate.

  51. I hope the folks on the Gulf side of Florida, north of Tampa are taking a storm surge threat seriously, because even though its not a hurricane, the right quadrant of Elsa is headed perpendicularly into a very concave part of the Florida coast and that coastal shape will hold every bit of water that gets pushed into that part of the coastline.

  52. We got the one that came in down Route 2. Got the loose stuff stowed just in time, and it’s been a blast to watch!

  53. Well I was wrong about the renegade on the N side of that cluster, but it gave me a show too. 🙂

    The rest of it is acting as expected…

  54. A couple tree branches down for my mom and stepdad neighbors. Thankfully for them it fell in their yards. I was over visiting when the storm came through with strong wind gusts and small hail. Last year we had a similar situation with a branch falling in my mom and stepdad yard.

  57. Thus far, just some heavy rain with a brief bout of thunder. With all the rain lately it’s like we’re living in India during monsoon season.

  58. Pleasantly surprised in Natick with only 15 or so minutes of heavy rain and not much (if any) wind or lightning. Am I correct that conditions tonight were more favorable for storms than they will be tomorrow?

    1. Similar or a little better Tuesday for the region as a whole, but that doesn’t mean every location will be hit to the full potential. 🙂

  60. At this hour, about 66,000 customers in NJ without power. I was one of them but only briefly, after a very bad storm here with ~50mph winds and one of the best lightning displays I’ve seen. NJ has taken the worst of it but portions of northeast PA, CT, and around the NYC metro were also hit hard.

    https://poweroutage.us/

    We’ve still got severe convection ongoing down here. Overall it evolved similar to how I expected. A little more shear and I think we would’ve had a true derecho-type event, but as it is, it’s been a pretty high end day over a rather large geographic area.

    1. ~87,000 the count in NJ now as the numbers come in from the storms that affected my area. Quite a day here and plenty more active weather to come this week.

  61. 0.19 inch in a truly Winpy T-storm.
    I know it was bad in some areas, but not here in JP.
    It hardly ever is. Very rarely. Even in so’called warned storms.

    1. Well, this is why we were saying the coverage was not going to be 100% for the worst of it. 🙂

      The worst of it all actually went right where I thought it would. Short range guidance, I felt, handled it well, and I leaned on it a bit more than I had previously.

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