Friday Morning Update

74 Comments

3:15AM

No changes to previous for this update. Just using the existing forecast. New discussion and forecast coming up later today. Thanks to all of you for continuing to read and contribute!

FRIDAY: Cloudy into late morning with a band of rain showers, possibly heavy, and a chance of thunderstorms, moving from southwest to northeast across the region. Mostly cloudy to partly sunny midday and afternoon with passing rain and snow showers, greater probability of snow showers with time. High 43-48 in the morning then temperature dropping into the 30s in the afternoon. Wind SE 5-15 MPH early, shifting to SW and increasing to 15-25 MPH with gusts over 30 MPH, eventually to W at similar speeds including gusts around 40 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Chance of snow showers and a slight risk of a heavier snow squall before midnight. Low 22-27.  Wind W 15-25 MPH with gusts around 40 MPH, shifting to NW.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. High 30-35. Wind NW 15-25 MPH, diminishing slowly.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Low 12-17. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Partly cloudy. Chance of snow showers. High 22-27. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY – MLK JR DAY: Mostly sunny. Low 11. High 33.

TUESDAY: Increasing clouds. PM rain showers. Low 28. High 44.

WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. AM snow showers. Low 29. High 36.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 22. High 34.

74 thoughts on “Friday Morning Update”

  1. TK, thank you for the update. Hope that both you and your dad are doing well! Good health is almost always the most important thing we can have.

    As for the weather, the Pats’ game night looks like the coldest one for the next 6 days. I am already a wreck thinking about it.

    1. I just realized the Pats haven’t won a playoff game since 2007. (At least, I think that’s correct.)

  2. Thanks TK !!

    Looks like an interesting morning ahead…….

    Cape Cod, coastal RI, coastal CT, NYC….all milder…..mid 40s to near 50F…with either east, southeast or southerly winds……interesting to see how far north this punch of milder air will make it.

    Pretty solid/intense thin line of heavy showers/thundershowers around eastern PA.

  3. Western NY State looks like the place to be for snowlovers today……first, a quick shot of synoptic snow this morning…..then favored locations get dumped on with Lake Effect snow.

  5. Just was on FB with a friend from Vail CO and he said they are near closing vail bc they have had only 6 inches of snow since thanksgiving!!! Unreal!! Clearly we are not the only one feeling the effects.

    1. yeah, it seems to be nationwide Hadi.

      Even the little bit of snowcover from here to Chicago from yesterday will likely all go by the end of the month. Long range sure is mild.

  6. The only thing wintry according to the NWS is a little light mixed wintry precipitation Monday night before a change to rain on Tuesday. It turns colder for mid to late week.

  7. Wind shouldn’t play a factor in the patriots game, but it will be cold at kickoff and will feature a game time start temps at 8pm of 24 degrees and around the end of game will be about 15 or 16 degrees, winds will be between 10-20mph, Go Patriots!!!

  8. TK – I shut my computer down yesterday before I saw your post. I am glad you are feeling better. And as Vicki said yesterday, we can take care of ourselves if need be – just take it easy whenever you need to. Not only is this blog educational and informative, but fun. I feel we are all friends here, too as others have said. So glad you are feeling better!

  9. Glad your feeling OK TK!!

    Boy does the GFS looks ugly in the long run, at the end of the run the 540 is nearly in the Arctic!! Just kidding but come on!!

  13. The only hope for any snow is somewhere around the 20-23 rd from what I can see and not much with that either!!

  15. today. mostly cloudy drizzle/freezing drizzle highs in the upper 30sto low 40s
    tonight partly cloudy breezy much colder lows in the mid 20s
    saturday partly to mostly sunny colder highs in the low 30s
    saturday night cold lows in the single digits mainly clear
    sunday mostly sunny highs in the upper 20s
    sunday night cold and clear lows around zero to 5 degrees
    monday mostly sunny highs in the low 30s
    monday night more partly sunny lows in the low to mid 20s
    tuesday Depends on the track but there is a chance of a morning mix with clouds later in the the day with temps rising into the upper 30s to low 40s.
    tuesday night: mostly cloudy chance of rain lows in the upper 20s
    wednesday through thursday night mostly sunny highs in the upper 20s lows in the 10s
    a wind advisory has been posted for most of massachusetts for winds of 15-35 with gusts up to 50.
    A winter weather advisory for ice has also been issued for this morning which has now been canceled but thier might be some snow showers mixed in with the drizzle
    A storm system might effect us at the begining of next week. it might go to the south of us and not give us anything keeping the cold air in the area or to the north of us giving us rain showers and kicking the cold out of here just for it to come on back for the second half of the week. these cold shot i think are a waste since the storms are not meeting up with the cold. At least i will be able to use my snow makers so that i can maintain my sleeding hill and hopefully make the hill useable for the holiday

  17. Good morning and thank you TK. I hope you are better today and can relax. Much quieter today tide is still high. My husband was up watching it at 1:30 this morning. Will still be high this afternoon but waves are far calmer

  19. I’m enjoying these little factoids from Pete B.:

    In years past, how long into winter did we go without plowable snow?

    After a bit of research with other meteorologists at the National Weather Service in Taunton, we found the following:

    Latest 2″ snow was on Feb. 16, 1980
    Latest 4″ snow was on Mar. 3, 1915
    Latest 6″ snowstorm was on April 1, 1997. Which was also the date for the MONSTER nor’easter that clobbered us with snow over 22″ of snow in Boston.

    1. I’m going to need a repeat of 1997 DS for even my below average forecast of 29″ for Logan to have a chance–brutal.

      I think Tom’s at 27″. Who’s the lowest? Didn’t Longshot or someone throw out a goofy number like 3″ or something. We might need Vicki to post that list again for those of us with memory problems.

      1. I think it was, indeed, longshot that posted 3 inches.

        I know I posted 60 inches!! Fat Chance!!! Lol

        That 3 inches is looking mighty fine right now, unless something
        changes big time.

      2. Someone definitely had 3″!

        And I agree. Wouldn’t mind a late season monster like ’97 one bit.

        Sun’s out in Boston. Looks beautiful outside!

    1. How about a tecnicality Hadi….

      Did you actually specify inches or did you really mean millimeters….. 😉

    1. I remember a year way back, I think Winter of 68-69.
      Until well into February we had virtually Nothing. It was NOT a pattern
      like we have seen, but rather one with main trough to the West with
      many lakes cutters and inside runners giving the Boston area rain with
      cold inbetween. (Up North was doing OK unlike this season).

      However, the main trough shifted Eastward In mid-February and VIOLA!
      It snowed. I was living in Millis at the time and we picked up
      24 inches on the 11th (I think Logan got 16) and another close to 30 inches on the 26th or so (logan got 26 inches). Got some more in March as well.

      SO if the pattern changes in february, we can make up any deficits in a hurry!

      But I am not counting on that. We shall see in time.

      1. February 1969 remains historic, especially in the White Mountains:

        2/24/69 – 3/4/69 Pinkham Notch, NH (base of Mt. Washington with 145″ reported on the ground Mar 4.

        77″ storm
        2/25 -21.0″
        2/26 -24.5″
        2/27 -27″
        2/28 -4.5″

        3/1-3/3 – 31″

  22. I have 3″ for the winter and no it was not “goofy.” (I actually had a (admittedly weak) reason for it.)

    However, I also said I hoped I was wrong, and I also said I may arrange for a storm between Feb 7th-10th if everyone here delivers a Pats’ and B’s win on Sat night. Do not fail the Longshot.

    1. Well, maybe goofy was a little harsh–my bad—but it certainly seemed a ‘longshot’ at the time.

      (that could be my driest attempt at humor ever! I just couldn’t resist and thanks for the indulgence)

  25. I need that 51 & 57 mark out here gang. I couldn’t clear the driveway when I got home–too heavy. Without some melting today, it’ll lock up and scrape the hell out of the bottom of my wife’s van.

    1. Ur lucky, no snow in eastern mass whatsoever, a matter of fact I was fishing from a pond in upton yesterday, no no ice fishing, unfortunately there’s no snow anywheres in the Boston and Providence metro areas

            1. Haha I think it was large around 3 or 4lbs, I was casting from the waters edge, there were 6 or 7 people doing the same thing this morning

              1. I don’t mean large fish. I mean was it a small mouth Bass or a largemouth bass. And what were you casting? A plug? Spoon? Below water? Surface?
                btw, that’s a nice fish.

                1. I’m no pro, I hooked a worm and shiners with a bob to let me know I got a fish haha, the surprise was that I was fishing from land as supposed to being on ice 🙂

      2. We are out upton way a lot. Daughter and family live in Uxbridge. I love to fish. Fresh water. I may ask you at some point how to get to that fishing spot

        1. No prob Vicki, I go to a pond that’s on the same road as the upton police dept, it’s a quarter of a mile down the street, last year at this same time they were snow mobiling, this year u will sink

  26. Wind just picked up in a big way about 5 mins. ago. Just before it got windy, the sun was out and yet it was foggy – almost looked like a hazy, summer day. It’s currently 43 degrees in Sudbury.

    1. It did here too rainshine. It’s off the land this time. My daughter sent me a pic from our home in framingham. The Christmas trees everyone put out are all over the neighborhood

  28. Rain shower in Sudbury, now. But wind is really howling – trees are moving back and forth. Temp. still 44 degrees.

    I know this is not a big storm or anything, but I still find weather events, no matter how small still exciting. Ok, so I’m kind of weird! Oh, well – have a great wknd. everyone – and go Pats! 🙂

  29. My theme today will be the phenomenon of overshooting. It’s from the economist’s toolkit – as you may know, I’m a practitioner of the “dismal science.” Overshooting refers to volatility on the exchange rate markets: Adjustment lags in some parts of the economy(ies) can induce compensating volatility in others; specifically, when an exogenous variable changes radically or an unexpected external shock occurs, the short-run effect on the exchange rate can be greater than the long-run effect, so that in the short run (periods of less than 1 month, say) the exchange rate overshoots its new long-run value.

    Bear with me if you’re thinking what the heck does this have to do with weather forecasting. I think there is an analogy, in particular, during this extremely anomalous pattern (I use the adjective “extreme” to describe it, because I have never experienced this kind of a winter in Boston in my life). Overshooting is a way of describing a model’s inability to properly handle exogenous variables (shocks, if you will). All models are prone to overshooting errors if they are: a. not properly specified; b. do not account for exogenous shocks. I believe that all weather models, from GFS to Euro have not been able to handle the anomalies this winter season. I am not referring to La Nina, or what would essentially be variables that can be accounted for in a model. I am referring to the very stubborn SE ridge, the persistent lack of any blocking whatsoever, and a `refusal’ of the Northern jet to really have any kind of a lasting impact at all on the 48 lower states this winter. Let’s face it, besides Alaska, the entire nation is basically been deprived of winter. And this is extremely unusual.

    There has literally been an overshooting with regard to temperatures. It happened today. It happened big time last Saturday, and it’s been happening all `winter,’ really since early November. Every time forecasts, even 72 hour forecasts, have called for a warm-up, they have underestimated the warm-up. Similarly, almost all forecasts have overestimated (predicted colder temperatures that did not verify) cool downs (this weekend being no exception; take a look at the forecast from only 2 days ago and compare it to today’s and you will see what I mean). The models are not handling the variables well, and this implies that any forecast is suspect at this point. Everything tends to balance out. So, the only thing I can predict with certainty is that the SE ridge will dissipate, the Northern jet will dip for prolonged periods, and blocking over Greenland will occur. And when this happens, which no-one can say right now, I believe the newly established pattern may be almost as stubborn as this one. That is, it won’t go away as fast as it normally would under the normal 4-6 week pattern cycles. Normalcy will return at a given point, but we may have to endure, for example, a very cold, wet spring, before we can arrive at the normal, long-run values that we are accustomed to seeing.

  30. You stated: “but we may have to endure, for example, a very cold, wet spring, before we can arrive at the normal,”

    Arggggghhhhh I sure HOPE you are wrong about that statement. I’d rather have winter in February running into March and have a WARM spring.

    1. Me, too, OS. I’m with you. I like it to be seasonal, and when April and May become extensions of winter rather than spring months, it’s not seasonal.

  31. Temperatures across the area are now begining to come down.
    at 2PM, Logan down to 47, Blue Hill to 43.

  32. Here is a HELP WANTED AD that has been running in the Boston Herald the past few days:

    SNOW SHOVELERS AND SNOW BLOWER OPERATORS

    Boggs Properties is now accepting applications.
    REQUIREMENTS: You must be available 24 hours a day, 7 days a week including holidays. You must be able to work each and every snow event. You must be able to get to the meet point quickly day or night. You must have appropriate outerwear for any winter conditions. You must be able to work long hours and be capable to perform the necessary work. We will pay $20.00 per hour for reliable persons.

    Please contact Boggsproperties@aol.com. Interested candidates Please Respond To This Ad With Your Phone Number So We Can Contact You For An Interview.

    Thank You. 🙂

      1. That’s weird, anyone that watches the weather probably won’t apply knowing a shovel might never be needed this year

    1. Don’t worry Charlie…the Midwest snows will disappear fairly quickly. The entire CONUS will be back in major warmth very soon.

  36. I just read Brett Anderson’s blog maybe hope for some coastal storms first week of February. Henry Margusity in his video thinks February is the month for the storms.
    CPC outlook big UGH!!!

    1. In the coming days, it will be interesting what the CPC says when their 8-14 day outlooks go into early February.

      I will say this much…whatever happens (or doesn’t happen) in February will be the same for March. I really believe that both months will have the same overall patterns.

  37. The blog is updated.

    … There will be one major snowstorm (over 6 inches) this winter season. MAYBE two. 🙂

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