A Train Of Kiddie Cars

277 Comments

4:44PM

A train of small and mostly minor storms will affect the Boston area during the next several days. Once such event is ongoing now, and others will follow late Thursday, Saturday, Monday, and Wednesday of next week, based on current timing. None of these events are expected to bring big snow.

Highlights of the recent past and the coming week+ appeared in the comments section of the last blog entry but i will re-post them here, then follow that up with the Boston area forecast…

– Weather-past: Well our little mini snowstorm is gone. I’m not completely satisfied with my forecast on this one. It snuck up a little more than I wanted it to, and some of the amounts were just a touch higher than I forecast. But no big misses, so I’ll take it. There was some cellular nature to the precipitation, evident on radar. I had 1.7 inch here in Woburn, while in Reading center there was under 1 inch. Move a bit to the east toward Peabody and there was nearly 2 inches. So the variability caused by the cellular nature of the precipitation was apparent even over these short distances.

– Weather-now: Periods of rain through evening and maybe some patchy fog over any remaining snow cover. Once the cold front clears the area later tonight, some icy areas may form, but it should not be a widespread major problem since we’ll see a gusty wind helping to dry the ground out, and no rapid temperature drop.

– Weather-future: Things I’m keeping an eye on as far out as I can see include the following…
* Windy/cold Wednesday
* Rapid-moving and weak system with minor snow event Thursday evening
* Breezy/cold Friday
* Snow/mix Saturday (track of system not clear yet)
* In-between Sunday but cool (not too cold) for Pats game
* Possible cold-air-damning icing situation for Monday???
* Warm-up squelched by high pressure to the north Tuesday
* Storm Wednesday (1-25), probably a cutter (tracks through the eastern Great Lakes), may open the door to very mild stretch to end the month…

TONIGHT: Overcast with periods of rain and patchy fog until midnight, then clearing. Low 30-35. Wind SW increasing to 10-20 MPH with gusts to 30 MPH, shifting to W.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. High 35-40  in the morning then cooling through the 30s. Wind W 15-25 MPH gusting 35-45 MPH, shifting to NW.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Clear. Low 12-17. Wind NW slowing diminishing to 10-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Increasing cloudiness. High 32-37. Wind N 5-15 MPH shifting to E.

THURSDAY NIGHT:  Cloudy. Chance of snow with minor accumulation expected. Low 26-31. Wind SE under 10 MPH shifting to N late.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. High 30-35. Wind NW increasing to 15-25 MPH.

SATURDAY: Cloudy. Chance of snow/mix. Low 25. High 37.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Light snow or rain showers. Patchy drizzle/fog. Low 30. High 39.

MONDAY: Cloudy. Ice to rain. Low 29. High 41.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Low 26. High 40.

277 thoughts on “A Train Of Kiddie Cars”

  4. Oh Man- I am beat. Just got home from a 16hr shift, have not been to bed since Sunday night. So much for the 3am start today. Call came in at 10:45 last night to report. Worst ride up rt3 that I can remember. Snow covered roads and ice covered roads. I saw many problems caused by the storm. Left at 11 and got to work at 12:20am. We worked like dogs four of us till 6am till we had everything done.

    1. All over an inch of snow that’s gone, it crazy, how much did u get and do u have anything left on ground?

      2. I was at work in Boston longwood medical area. I would guess 2inches. We needed all of the heavy machines, plow, bobcats.

  6. I agree I think they will both be MINOR at this point in terms of snowfall. With that said it does not take much to make the roads slippery and to me I find more accidents when we get light snowfalls.

  7. 18z GFS quite robust with the QPF on Saturday’s system, but a tad too warm. Still a while to go, and definitely something to keep a close eye on.

  9. pete is saying 3-6 inches. why are all the mets jumping on this when its going to go the other way i bet.

  10. Tonight, Todd on BZ was not giving a real forecast for Sat snow. He was hedging, but did say it could be more than today. No one seems sure. may have to wait til Thurs or Fri to knbow.

  11. Three severe thunderstorm warnings out in western NY/northern PA region. Line, so far, holding together. Buffalo is up to 52F.

    1. So you said if I stayed we can still talk sports LOL. I feel strongly the pats going to the superbowl. Since I predicted a blowout last week, lets go for 2-0. I should predict sports instead of weather LOL, I’m killing myself tonight. Pats win a tough one. I predict they win by 10. I am rooting for SanFran- pats superbowl. I would not be shocked at all if SanFran goes. Brady grew up watcing 49rs and loved Montana, me too.

      1. I hope you are correct. I would put 7 or 8 guys upfront and try to take away Rice and the Ravens running game. I know that would leave man coverage with a poor secondary, but I’ll take my chances with Flacco trying to beat the Patriots…..NFC, if the Patriots make it, I want the Giants. Tougher game, I’d think than Niners, but I want the Pats to have another shot at the Giants.

      2. John as I said my SIL said months ago it would be SF and pats. I figure it’s a win for me. I’d love to see him right but he and I have strong personalities and love to “debate” so…..

  12. Laughing at the 18z GFS right this minute, here is next Wednesday
    http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?page=Image&prevPage=Param&image=..%2FGemPakTier%2FMagGemPakImages%2Fgfs%2F20120117%2F18%2Fgfs_namer_189_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&fcast=189&imagesurls=&model=GFS&area=NAMER&storm=&areaDesc=North+America+-+US+Canada+and+northern+Mexico&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&rname=SFC-LAYER+PARMS&pname=850_temp_mslp_precip&cycle=01%2F17%2F2012+18UTC&imageSize=M&currKey=model&scrollx=0&scrolly=0&prevArea=NAMER&prevImage=yes

  13. Call Henry M.! Alert the media! Wake the kids! Phone the neighbors! Call the National Enquirer! The 18z GFS has record heat and a chance of thunderstorms for the East Coast for Groundhog Day! I hope it doesn’t verify then start repeating over and over!

  16. Just read a discussion from the storm prediction center and a severe thunderstorm watch is possible for parts of western NY and PA.

  17. in first class of the semester tonight….zzzzzzz………zzzzzzz……

    what’s the word people? looks like we might add some more snowcover some huh?

    Don’t fret about the pats anyone. This weekend is in the bag.

    And I want another bite of the apple with the Giants.

  18. Although it likely won’t happen, a storm on the 25th would be very nice because it could give us snow day and that is the day right after our midterms finish…

    1. yes….its like the tops are being blown off the storms, but I’d assume these cloud tops arent too tall. But it gives that illusion.

      1. TK…..that was just a guess on my part…..do you know what that appearance on the PA radar means with respect to these storms ? Because they certainly look different than the showers just north in NY State.

        1. They are relatively low top, but high enough to be severe in some areas. The blow-off look on radar is due to very strong WSW mid to upper level winds. There is some wind sheer present hence some spin with a few of these small supercells.

  22. Mt. Washington nearly to 32F again………………Far northeast Maine is certainly getting an intense couple hour fall of snow this evening. The radar looks impressive as that precip area seems to intensify. The back edge is a period of light freezing rain. It can be 50F down here and its just a different climate in far northern New England.

      1. Nice……If the long range verifies, it will be bearable up there….maybe20s and 30s…..I assume if things are normal, it could be 10F below this time of year.

        1. I spent some time when younger fishing I’m parmacheene – brown paper area up in rangley. I think it was -10 in august in that area:)

          2. LOL……..a couple of summers ago, we were further east and camped for several days on Moosehead Lake. Great time…..a cool front came through, (it was August) and by late evening, it was like 55F and that night got into the 40s.

  23. B’s passing poorly. Score: 2-2.

    Once again I am looking at more ice in this hockey game than I have seen all winter in NE.

        1. He’s been invisible lately. May be the best thing that happened to him. Coach knows what he’s doing.

  27. Very different then GFS.

    http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?page=Image&prevPage=Param&image=..%2FGemPakTier%2FMagGemPakImages%2Fnam%2F20120118%2F00%2Fnam_namer_063_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&fcast=063&imagesurls=&model=NAM&area=NAMER&storm=&areaDesc=North+America+-+US+Canada+and+northern+Mexico&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&rname=SFC-LAYER+PARMS&pname=850_temp_mslp_precip&cycle=01%2F18%2F2012+00UTC&imageSize=M&currKey=model&scrollx=6&scrolly=0&prevArea=NAMER&prevImage=yes

  28. I am also noticing a nice high up in Maine that might help with Saturdays storm or opposite keeping it suppressed.

  30. I want to see that high up north to pump down the cold air but at the same time if the high is too strong it could keep the storm system away from us.

  31. Guess everyone is busy tonight:) I myself am hitting the sack!

    TK any reason why the 18z GFS could show a storm like that for Wednesday, I know it’s the 18z but my god how can it can depict such a scenario.

    1. Because it’s an 18z GFS run having its usual difficulties with pieces of energy that are still somewhere in the Pacific Ocean.

            1. It is the GFS. The 18z applies to any model. Combine the 2 and you get maximum garbage output.

    1. Funny, my wife just made a giant bowl of popcorn… Then left with it to go watch something with my daughter. 😛

      1. 0Z GFS wants to give us about 3-6 inches of snow Saturday evening, then go over to sleet/freezing rain/frz drizzle all Day Sunday???

  34. NWS forecast changed for Sunday, now going w/rain and snow showers, mid to upper 30’s. 2 days ago it was Sunny and mid 40’s. Slop favors Ravens ground attack though it seems Brady will pass in any weather.

  35. Its all in the timing…..yesterday’s high at Logan….48F…..today’s high already….51F.

    Looking ahead, now the EURO is just south of New England on its track for the 25th. I think that would be rain though, too much mild air.

  36. Tom I would agree the euro has been consistent whereas the GFS is just a mess right now for next week.

    Thursday I think we can see a 1-3 inche range 1-2near the city and maybe 3 north of town. Saturday is a mess right now, 0z euro is colder then GFS so I would go with a compromise at this point so a snow/mix/rain combo for the city and all snow Nw of the city. I would keep an eye in that high up north and see what impact that has. This is one of those rain/snow line situations that we deal with in winter here in eastern mass.

  37. A couple of thoughts…

    On Saturday, the cold air wont retreat easily. I learned this lesson last week.

    I’m really becoming skeptical on much well above normal warmth towards month end. Not thinking ice cold either, but a low passing south here and a small bubble of high pressure to our north there….and instead of seeing lots of 40s and 50s, I think the majority of January’s remaining days could be spent in the 30s.

  39. Btw examining the 0z euro if it were to verify it does keep most everyone snow on Saturday except for south coast areas with a 3-6 inch snowfall.

      1. Some snow but a transition to rain is depicted for the south coast, cape and Islands.

        Again clearly TK sees things a little differently:) Trust in him over me, but I do agree with Tom’s thoughts about the colder leacving too quickly.

  46. Tom is right. For the first time in a long time the projected warm-up is both late in coming and somewhat muted. I do not think the warm-up will last more than a couple of days. Furthermore, the storm track has changed, giving SNE more chances of snow. Whether this will all hold up is another matter.

    By the way, Seattle is getting its snowstorm. It’s rare to have a snowstorm in Seattle as the prevailing (very dominant) wind direction is west, which means relatively mild Pacific air. For a snowstorm to happen the Low has to do a button hook of sorts south of Seattle, trapping the cold air to the north and allowing for an all snow event. The wind today in Seattle is NE, which is very unusual. Amsterdam (Netherlands) is very similar to Seattle in terms of its climate and the rarity of a true snowstorm. We’re lucky in Boston to at least have a fighting chance every week or so during the winter.

  47. Joshua that storm in the NW is a monster, my mom and dad live on the Oregon coast and boy do they have stories about the winds and surf that they get. I think they might see a little snow even on the coast which is unheard of. Look at some of the expected snow totals in the ranges out of this storm.

  48. The snow totals in the Cascades will be unreal. Avalanche Warnings all over the place. I used to ski Mt. Hood all the time and to me no where better in the US for skiing.

  49. Looking good for snow Saturday. I like Hadi’s 3-6.

    Enjoy it becasue looks like we’re in for a couple of good rain storms in the longer period.

  50. today : breezy and sunny highs already occured temperatures falling through out the afternoon
    tonight clear and cold lows in the single digits
    thursday partly cloudy highs in the low 30s
    thursday night becoming cloudy with some snow possible after mid night( would not be surprised if winter weather advisories get posted )
    friday becoming sunny highs in the low 30s
    friday night becoming cloudy lows in the upper 10s
    saturday through saturday night ????? depends on the track but possible snow in the afternoon through most of the night. highs low 30s lows in the low 20s
    sunday a chance of afternoon snow showers
    sunday night chance of snow and rain showers (warm front) ??
    monday through tuesday partly sunny highs in the low 40s ,lows in the mid 20s

      1. about AceMaster – I have the sense the others would be here if they wanted to be but that’s just a guess

  53. NAM seems a little slow with the energy for Thursday night clipper, still putting down 1-3 inches area wide, but its holding the energy until Friday, I don’t agree with that so I would still bring in later Thursday night into Friday morning.

    1. If what hadi says happens that will lead to delays for friday morning.
      also early thoughs at amounts
      I think a general 2-4 inches but 0-2 on the coast and some 5 to 6 inch amounts high terrain is possible

        1. .2 to .4 of an inch of water which would 2-4 inches of snow under a 12-1 snow ratio I think it can be a little more like a really high snow ratio.

  55. re: Thursday

    Looks to me like an inch or 2, perhaps stretching it to 3 in some locations.

    re: Saturday

    0Z Euro looks most interesting, However, the NAM is coming into play and it does not
    look good at all.

    Euro => all snow event 6 inches or more.
    GFS => Snow to Mix perhaps to rain, 2-4,3-5 or so.
    NAM => 12Z complete. NAM is more of an inside runner and mostly rain.

    Given the track records of models this season and the various trends we have
    witnessed, right now I’d lean towards more of a RAIN event for Saturday.

    I really don’t like the fact that the NAM is NOT on board for SNOW.

    Even though the NAM performs best 60 hours and in, if we look at where it places it
    at 60 hours, tells the story.

    UGH…..

    We’ll see what the 12Z Euro has to say.

  57. I can’t beleive that the NAM is showing a correct solution with that run. It just shoves that High right into the Atlantic.

    1. I understand that, however, how many times this year did something look
      good, ONLY to have it track more North and West.

      Btw, Canadian also has a Colder solution with 3-6 inches or so.

      However, last Winter the NAM nailed system after system. I don’t think it has gone bad all of a sudden. It also has been pretty solid this Winter as well.
      I think that the NAM is onto something. Hope I/It am/is Wrong. Sorry, Just how I see it at the moment.

      I know, it seems nuts to go with the single OUTLIER doesn’t it? Just a feeling I have. Of Course I could be DEAD wrong. We’ll see.

      I reserve the right to change my mind later, of course. LOL

      As I said, I would like to see the 12Z Euro.

  59. OS the way winter has gone our trend is not our friend at this point. Holding out hope though. GFS up next and then EURO so let’s see what they say.

    Like JMA pointed out a couple weeks I am looking more and more at different aspects of the set up and I am really still thinking Sat ends up being snow vs rain.

    1. Yes, But NAM has been pretty Solid. It does seem strange that it is
      SUCH an OUTLIER. I don’t think it was an initialization issue either,
      as previous runs have hinted at this solution.

      Interesting situation. We shall see.

  61. No change in the Snow Index for tomorrow night as I am giving that system a 1 since I feel totals will come in under 4 inches.
    Now to the fun part of trying to figure out what Saturday storm system is going to do. One thing that looks certain is it won’t be a blockbuster. This COULD be a level 2 snow event for the interior since 4 plus inches is possible IF it stays all snow. The coast I think will see that mix which would keep totals down and make this a level 1 snow event.

  62. Just look at the current models EURO/GFS/CMC all in agreement in SNE snowstorm and NAM not, I can;t put much stock into unless I see a major shift from the guidance.

  63. Doesn’t the NAM perform better within 48 hours of a storm system? Now we got if the other models jump on board the NAM or will the NAM jump into the camp of the other models?

  64. Interesting from the HPC regarding the 12z NAM, nothing crazy but maybe that’s the reason its showing this type of soultion.

    12Z NAM EVALUATION

    MODEL INITIALIZATION ERRORS ARE DESCRIBED UNDER THE RELEVANT
    SYSTEM HEADING.

    …ARCTIC WAVE CROSSING THE NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY…
    …SURFACE LOW TO DEVELOP EAST OF MAINE ON FRIDAY…

    THE NAM INITIALIZATION OF THE SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN
    PLAINS AT 12Z WAS NOT DEEP ENOUGH. THE ANALYZED PRESSURE AT 12Z
    WAS 7 HPA DEEPER THAN THE NAM INITIALIZATION. THIS APPEARS TO HAVE
    SOME IMPACT ON THE NAM DEPICTION OF THE COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND
    THE LOW ACROSS MONTANA…WHERE THE INITIALIZED 850 HPA
    TEMPERATURES ON THE NAM ARE TOO WARM. THE NAM IS ALSO TOO WEAK
    WITH THE WIND MAXIMA IN THE UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAK ACROSS MONTANA
    AT 12Z.

    DESPITE THE INITIALIZATION PROBLEMS DESCRIBED ABOVE…THE NAM DOES
    NOT DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY FROM THE MODEL CONSENSUS WITH RESPECT TO
    BOTH THE UPPER-LEVEL AND SURFACE FEATURES OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT
    PROGRESSES EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION BY EARLY
    THURSDAY. SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH
    WILL CAUSE A SURFACE LOW TO DEVELOP JUST OFF THE COAST OF NEW
    ENGLAND ON FRIDAY. THE NAM IS LESS AMPLIFIED WITH THIS UPPER-LEVEL
    WAVE RELATIVE TO THE 06Z GFS/00Z ECMWF…WHICH EVENTUALLY RESULTS
    IN A MORE EASTWARD/LESS INLAND TRACK UP THE CANADIAN COASTLINE.
    THE NAM DOES NOT DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY FROM THE MODEL CONSENSUS
    WITH THE DEVELOPMENT/TRACK OF THIS SURFACE LOW THROUGH EARLY
    SATURDAY…HOWEVER.

    1. Yes, it is colder, with much less qpf than previous runs.
      These models are all over the place, which suggests to me that
      Saturday’s event has major BUST potential.

      1. I don’t see it that way, I think the GFS is too strung out on this run with the precip field. I am still confident in a 3-6 inch snowfall as long as the the EURO maintains it. Just look at the GFS performance as of late for next week. Poor is to say the least!

        1. Hadi,

          I understand and we can certainly disagree.
          I find it all facinating. I’m guessing that the other
          models will come around to the NAM’s solution.

          We shall see.

          BTW, for a snow lover I am going to commit blasphemy.
          We have travel plans for Saturday evening, so I would
          actually prefer a MISS or RAIN. Sorry.

          1. It’s funny OS but for each potential “storm” this winter at least one of us (myself included) has said he/she would prefer it not to happen on a certain day. Wonder what that says about all of us 🙂 And don’t anyone let this slip on the BZ weather blog – hehe

  66. I have been watching each successive run of the NAM. It has been consistent.

    What is most interesting to me, is NOT that it may or may not snow on Saturday, but rather, Why is there such divergence. And as JJ stated, will the Euro and GFS
    come on board with the NAM, or will the NAM come on board with the others.

    Time will tell.

    1. I’m still with you Hadi on the 3-6 call especially north of the Pike. I’m just really spooked by the pattern and lack of jet stream kinking enough to spin something up. Systems this year have either been very light, inside runners or open waves. What will make this weekend different in the end?

  70. From NWS at Taunton regarding Saturday’s system:

    …AM SOMEWHAT BEWILDERED AND
    SURPRISED WITH THE FCST AMOUNT OF PRECIP AS THE SYS IS ASSOC WITH
    FAIRLY WEAK DYNAMICS…

    Bust potential?

  71. Patriots game weather looks good, cloudy with a temp of 40 degrees to start, and around 30 degrees at the end, winds 10-15 mph.

    1. I think Longshots prediction of 3 inches is looking better all of the time 🙂 And to think I thought the 3 inches was just said in fun.

        1. I figure we have to get to 13.5 for Charlie and Longshot to split the lead. Not sure my math is right. I’m on a phone conf so am not positive my math is correct – did it quickly

  74. It just so happens that I was planning to invite Ace Master this morning. I had typed out a reply underneath his comments including Coastal’s e-mail address and was all set to “submit” but suddenly thought better of it. I wasn’t sure because of what happened last weekend and I became unsure if the rules for inviting new people had changed since. I am also always concerned about trolls coming aboard here as well.

    However, AFAIC I like Ace Master…and David White as well! 🙂

    1. Philip could you please send to baileyman and weather wizzard. I think Bm will come because people have been using his name. Thank’s.

      1. John, I believe BM and WW have long since been invited over here by Coastal. It is now probably up to them at this point.

        And btw John…our snow predictions for this past weekend were correct! No we didn’t get a ton of snow, but January certainly won’t go snowless now. 🙂

          1. Charlie, I got 1.4″ and I got to use my shovel for the first time since last winter. It is now at the ready for more coming this weekend.

        2. You know Its funny. I thought of you yesterday while working the storm, we were right. It was basd up this way. I think they should be reinvited, they may have forgot. Hey I was at freeport tavern Saturday night, your from that arera right. We lived right down the street from there. Gota go-

  75. I think TK can manage if someone comes over that is a troll, as I beleive Ace master and David White are very interested in the weather.

    1. I believe that both Ace Master and David White would make nice additions to this blog…if it’s ok with Coastal and TK.

      Hey Coastal…do you usually do the formal invites on the WBZ blog or can anyone here as well?

      1. Philip, i have no issue if you or anyone else wants to drop my email address on the BZ Blog. The issue is I have not been on there so it would be hard to verify who they are. If you invite someone I would suggest emailing me a couple of questions that they could answer. It helps weed out the bad ones.

      2. Both of them are fine. We can usually tell if a troll is trying to intrude, and if one manages to, I have the ability to rid the blog of them.

        With increasing user #’s of late, I’ll be posting some guidelines for blog use very soon.

  76. As expected I got beat up on for posting on BZ, just trying to be nice to the folks still on there. Oh well:)

    1. You’re brave Hadi. You needed to bring a wingman.

      I haven’t even peeked at that site since this one started. How long have we all been here. Has it been a year now?

      1. its been a long time, just thought I would be a good sport and help out some of the folks who are interested

    2. I was watching Hadi but have a phone conference so haven’t been back. I thought everyone seemed really happy to see you but some worms must have surfaced from their little holes in the ground

      1. i still post stuff on the blog its march and april that its the worse. I will not be blogging on the wbz blog durring that time. For now though there are about 50 percent that is wondering where we all are including Barry Burbank who asked me how could they get people back on back in november. Its why Barry Burbank does not post blogs as much anymore

  78. I want to confirm and think someone already has said this – but total so far in Boston is 2.9″ – is that correct??

      2. hahahahahaha – Longshot Charlie is next with 23.9 – you have a long way to go before anyone takes your lead away 🙂

  80. saw this on twitter:
    12z bufkit on NAM and GFS show at least some snow all the way to Plymouth & New Bedford.

  81. EURO confrims my thinking of at least 3-6 inches. 540 just makes to Boston but no further north very similar to 0z.

    1. Is there a timeline? My daughter and family are planning to head to Scituate from Uxbridge around 10:00 am Saturday

    1. It actually comes right over the Boston area. Keep hitting the “L” key
      to see the progression Northward. BUT it is still calling for all SNOW in
      Boston as 850MB oC line stays South.

  84. 12z NAM/GFS/ECWMF all deliver about .35-.50 of QPF on Saturday afternoon/evening. I think there is enough model consensus to forecast potential advisory level snow from Hartford to Springfield to Boston. However, I am bothered by the amounts. Just does not seem like enough of a forcing mechanism to deliver the higher end of those QPF amounts. So I hesitate to put out ranges at this time. Also their is a lot of dry air to overcome early, that will lead to the leading edge of the precip drying up before it gets to the surface and then the air warming above the surface will reduce ratios later on.

  85. Hmmm

    12Z Euro still on track for snow. If my addition is correct, it is calling for
    right around 6 inches or so for the Boston area.

    I wonder what the 18Z NAM will show? Will it come around or stick to its guns?

    We shall see.

    1. Even if it snows, we’re not staying home. I only stay off the roads in snow
      IF there is danger of trees coming down, Virtually NO visibility, or accumulation so deep that there is danger of getting stuck. Otherwise, snow doesn’t stop me.

  89. Hadi I finally got over to BZ and they must have removed comments – good that they are finally doing something I suppose. It’d be far better if, as is the case with all blogs, BZ required a blogger to register.

  90. Hello…I just feel that I should let you know that I’m read and enjoy this blog. I used to read the WBZ one, but as you know, that got very silly. I enjoy your analysis and check out some of your links from time to time. I am very much an amateur when it comes to the weather.

  91. Replied to the troll who seemed to threaten Hadi, and they removed the troll’s post, leaving my response hanging, lol. Oh well. Anyway, four days and two snowstorms until football. Just hope I’m not out shoveling at kick off.

  92. For me, today has been the best day of winter weather so far. Cold, but not seriously so. A little windy, yes……but lots of sunshine. Perfect.

  93. I am surprised by the EURO’s flip-flop for the 25th. Weak storm south of New England on the 0z run, fairly strong storm well west of New England on the 12z run.

  94. 18z NAM for Saturday is a lot warmer and much higher with the QPF’s, still far out with that model, so we’ll have to see.

  95. 18Z Nam for Saturday has it starting as snow, but transitioning rather
    quickly to mix then Rain with most of storm being rain. To be sure, it is a bit
    colder solution than the 12Z run. I wonder if it is slowly adjusting to the other
    model solutions? Could be. See What the 0Z runs show.

    1. Yes I meant much warmer than the GFS and EURO. I don’t have much faith in the NAM at this time regarding Saturday’s event.

      1. No one seems to have any faith in it. We’ll see if it trends
        towards the other models with the 0Z run. One thing for certain, MUCH more qpf with this run. Interesting, but it is
        an 18Z run.

    1. Interesting.

      NWS at Gray Me, has a general 2-4 inches and for down East Main,
      4-6 inches. I think 4 inches for Eastern MA “May” be stretching it a bit,
      but perhaps he feels there will be just enough redevelopment to produce
      higher qpf in Eastern sections??? Just a thought.

      Did he say anything about Saturday?

      1. He mentioned that Thursday’s system will have a bit more energy than Monday’s event, plus higher snow ratios.
        General 3-6″ for Saturdays system is what I heard from him.

  97. I think for Thursday night there will be less snow than forecasted because the snow will not be falling very intensely during the storm. Only 1-2in IMO…

    1. That’s pretty much my thinking with perhaps an isolated 3 inch total, but most
      sections get an inch or 2. We shall see.

        2. Yes, almost 2 min’s per day. In the first 18 days of January, Boston gained about 20 minutes of daylight. In the last 13 days, it gains nearly 30 minutes.

  99. I thinks the next few systems will end up a bit colder overall………..Its kind of like my pool, which now has a good inch of ice cover on it. Each cold push has made the ice a little thicker and each following warmup has been a little less effective in melting the ice. Despite last nights 50s, all of the ice didnt melt…….I kind of figure the atmosphere to behave somewhat the same way. Its the third week of January and slowly, but surely, the atmosphere is losing more and more warmth. It will be very cold tonight, cold tomorrow, snow tomorrow night, be cold Friday and very cold Friday night. My guess is the Saturday system trends colder still and the early next week system will feature low level cold just away from the coast that will be stubborn to scour out.

  100. 18Z GFS Ups the qpf as well. Has it get very close to a changeover in Boston, if
    not an actual transition to sleet/rain. Again, it is an 18Z run.

    We need to take a close look at the 0Z runs and of course tomorrow’s
    12Z runs.

  101. No changes to earlier thinking for tomorrow night with the Snow Index which remains at 1 since there will be MINOR accumulations. Saturday could end up being a 2 for the interior. I think 3-6 inches is POSSIBLE but still much can change.

    1. JJ, Based on your current thinking, if Sat’s storm remained all snow for the Boston area, would the city be looking at higher snow totals versus inland locations?

  103. Pete Bouchard just looked at some “new” information on his 5:00 pm newscast and he says that rain is expected to work up from the South Coast into our area on Saturday with the 3-6″ of snow well n & w instead.

    I hope this doesn’t verify…leave it to Pete to be the “killjoy”. All the other mets are still forecasting mostly, if not all snow.

  104. Wow, tons of comments here. Just got to the blog for the first time since this morning. I’ll be catching up this evening and updating the blog / my forecast.

    Once again if you are adding a comment for the first time, or have used a different email address than previously, your comment will go to a waiting area and I’ll get to them as soon as possible. Thanks for your patience! 🙂

  105. I think the Boston to Providence areas get into some rain sat evening, well north and west will get more snow, tommorrow night looks very minor with most getting an inch or two and again a little more north and west, have a great night everyone 🙂

  106. I’m thinking 2-4″ for most tomorrow night, which won’t melt at all before Saturday, so yes I call that a snow pack.

    1. He’s rethinking that position after talking to a trusted colleague in the business a lot longer than he has been… HAHA

  109. Wow- many new folks here this week. Welcome and I look forward to reading your thoughts. For the people who came from BZ you will see that we are very civil here, we all get along very,very good. We have many sports fans here so feel free to talk about sports from time to time. Again Welcome.

    1. On that note John, got a call from an old college friend today with an extra ticket–I’m pretty excited. The last AFC championship game I went to was back when they beat the Jags.

      Snow this weekend bookended by an AFC title game live–can’t come soon enough.

        1. I must still be wiped from working that 16hr shift, my spelling is bad today LOL. I am off till Monday as I took a couple of vacation days.

  110. Again I will point out from what I said earlier, euro/Cmc/GFS all on board for snow so I can’t ignore that.

    Charlie I assume your basis is in NAM? Not surprised to know that you are calling for rain:)

  112. According to the NWS this evening, there is a robust system for next Tuesday with p-type issues. Any early thoughts on this one?

    1. My early thoughts on that one are the same as yesterday. A rain event that starts as ice inland on Monday. Tuesday we’re heading out the back side with a west wind, much like today.

  113. Remember last January at this time when even the city of Boston was building up a genuine snowpack. It was truly amazing. I will never forget walking through the city on sidewalks that basically had 4-5 foot walls of packed snow on either side. And this lasted awhile. It was the closest thing to walking in a giant freezer.

  114. As always the trend this winter has been north so let’s see if that continues. The high up north is not as strong as I would like to have to gtd cold air.

        1. Your doing great. Thank you. So snow to rain event for saturday or rain. What do you see Pembroke getting tomorrow night, maybe an inch. Sure is cold tonight.

  115. Also I was tweeting with Pete and clearly he is looking hard at the NAM as well as the GFS. He clearly thinks rain will be involved into Boston.

  117. I know this is going to sound stupid and almost don’t want to post it, but is Pembroke eastern,western or southern plymouth county. I am thinking western. There I did it.

    1. I have no idea. I would have guessed eastern so it’s probably in between. And John. You are anything but stupid my friend

  119. NWS has a hot hand with temps for Sunday’s game. In MetroWest they have lowered the high temperature 3 days straight. Was 44, then 38, 36 and now 33.

    However precip has been changed from light mix/slop to sunny, I assume Foxboro will see the same. Good throwing weather for Tom if the wind is tame.

  120. NAM is running so let’s see if anything is different.

    The way winter has gone I am leery of jumping on board 100% even though I think things look good.

  122. JMA seemed confidant on track earlier but not on precipitation amounts and I trust him very much. I need TK thoughts bc I don’t buy it unless he buys it:)

  129. After chatting with some former coworkers we agree that the NAM is likely running too warm.

    New blog is posted.

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