Sunday January 2 2021 Forecast (8:46AM)

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DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 2-6)

This second day of 2022 will be a transition day. We’ll be heading out of our mild and wet spell that started the year off and toward our first significant cold shot in a while. A cold front will cross the region during the day today into this evening. While we start out with abundant low level moisture, producing lots of drizzle and fog, the only real rainfall around early this morning is over Nantucket which sits on the northern edge of a solid swath of rain to the south, pretty much all of it to miss New England during today. Instead, we’ll see some rain showers try to move in from the north and west with the cold front, but at the same time the available moisture will be decreasing, so the greatest chance for these showers is north of Boston, in northeastern MA and southern NH. By the time the temperature has dropped enough to support snow showers, most of the moisture will be gone, but I’ll leave the slight chance in the forecast tonight in case we see a few stray flakes make it into the WHW forecast area. This leads us to a one-day shot of very cold air for Monday, while a wave of low pressure travels rapidly northeastward, passing southeast of New England, far enough to spare the region a snowstorm, but close enough so that some flakes may visit Cape Cod and the Islands enough to accumulate a little bit, including with a little ocean enhancement, and some flakes in the air may get as far north as Boston for a brief period of time, but this is far less likely with the very dry air that will be in place. This is also potentially the set-up for a good sunset, depending on the timing and placement of the edge of the cloud shield, so photographers, be on stand-by for that, just in case. Snow or not, good sunset or not, it will be cold Monday through Tuesday morning – something we’ve not had to contend with much this young winter season. And like other times, the cold shot will be fleeting with moderating temperatures heading toward the middle of the week. Fair weather is expected Tuesday with high pressure in control, and then low pressure will pass northwest of the region on Wednesday, its warm front / cold front combo bringing us some unsettled weather. Drier and cooler air will follow this for Thursday.

TODAY: Cloudy with areas of fog and drizzle, some rain Nantucket, during the morning. Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain showers, favoring southern NH and northeastern MA, this afternoon. Highs 44-51 occurring in the morning then falling slowly during the afternoon. Wind W to NW increasing to 10-20 MPH with higher gusts by the end of the day.

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. A passing light snow shower possible, favoring northern MA and southern NH. Lows 18-25. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts. wind chill below 20.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy but some filtered sun north and west of Boston. Chance of snow with minor accumulation (up to an inch or two) favoring Cape Cod and Islands. Highs 27-34. Wind NW to N 10-20 MPH, higher gusts. Wind chill below 20 at times.

MONDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 12-18. Wind NW 5-15 MPH. Wind chill often below 10.

TUESDAY: Sunny. Highs 33-40. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds. Temperatures steady 33-40. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers. Highs 43-50. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers in the evening. Lows 33-40. Wind shifting to NW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 40-47 in the morning, then turning cooler. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 7-11)

A storm system passing by, probably just to the southeast, will bring the chance of some snow/mix January 7 followed by fair and cold weather for the January 8-9 weekend. Slight moderation and another precipitation threat later in the period.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 12-16)

Mid January has a colder look to it, and some questions remain as to our snow chances, as it looks a little on the drier side, but this remains a low confidence forecast.

70 thoughts on “Sunday January 2 2021 Forecast (8:46AM)”

  1. Good morning and thank you TK.
    So close for tomorrow, but not close enough. I do not have much confidence for the 7th. Looks like many solutions are on the table. We shall see. Gfs has mostly ots, while euro has snow to rain.

  2. Thanks TK.

    According to Jacob this morning, Nantucket (of all places) may get its first inch of snow for the season before Boston. His snowfall map had Nantucket at 2-4” while Boston just flurries or a dusting.

    Logan = 0.4” to date

    1. This classic pattern is one that results in the roll reversal: PNW becomes New England. New England becomes PNW.

      1. he he he It wouldn’t surprise me. I do NOT have a good feeling about the Friday system. Hope I am out to lunch.

        1. At least we would have decent cold around for tomorrow’s system. I am wondering if we get a wind component off of
          that ocean to at least provide some ocean effect or “ocean enhancement”.

    3. The air settling in tonight and Monday is cold and very dry. As is usually the case, I expect that to win out tomorrow. The models are likely bringing the snow too far north and underestimating the extent of the dry air once again. Accumulating snow on the Cape? Probably. North of that? Not likely.

      I’ll reserve judgement on the late week storm until I write my blog tonight. Too many other areas to focus on at work today for snow (WA/ID, TN/GA, DC, DE to name 4)

    1. I watched 3 locals last night and 2 of them spoke of it as if it was inevitable as a solid hit. One of them knew better.

      It’s too soon to know.

    1. We’re just seeing what we’ve been seeing all along. Medium range guidance having no idea what to do with certain pieces of energy, suffering especially at certain time ranges. Same deal that SAK, JMA, WxW, and myself have been talking about endlessly. Not expecting the performance of these models to improve all that much for the time being, even if the pattern shifts up some.

      Some of them will need to wait until we shift out of La Nina, others will have to wait until the next upgrade and then hope it actually improves the performance, which is about a 50/50 shot. 😉

  13. Thanks TK.

    0z Euro, 12z CMC, 12z UKMET, and 12z Icon all stay the course with an accumulating snowstorm for Friday. GFS has lost it as Dave said but as we know has had little run to run consistency so I’m remaining cautiously optimistic…

    1. Send the monday storm further north and get Friday white. We have gotten enough rain. We want/need snow. We need some more people to offset this comment 😛

  15. the Operational GFS has seemed to lose storms in the 5 to 8 day period just for it to come back in a day or so. GEFS still has it but further OTS

  16. Thanks, TK!
    Happy New Year, everyone!

    Had a blast watching the Winter Classic from Minnesota last night! Game time temp was around -8º!!! I’ll bet the players loved it. Probably reminded them of boyhood pond hockey from their native lands!

    Santa brought me a telescope for Christmas. Do you think we’ve had one clear day/night this school vacation week that I could play with it?????? 🙂

    1. Your last paragraph reminds me of when I was a kid and I would get a new bike every couple years or so for Christmas starting with a tricycle. Whenever I got one, always the landscape was deeply covered in snow, while the other Christmases was much like this one. Go figure. 🙂

  17. 12z Euro stays the course with a nice hit for Friday…

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=prateptype_cat_ecmwf&rh=2022010212&fh=120&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    Total snow at 10:1 through Saturday (both storms):

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=sn10_acc&rh=2022010212&fh=138&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    The upper band of heavier snow across interior SNE is mostly from the Friday storm while the thin heavier band to the south is from tomorrows system.

  19. 12z EPS (Euro ensemble mean) tucked in pretty close to the coast for Friday and agrees with the operational:

    https://www.americanwx.com/bb/uploads/monthly_2022_01/ecmwf-ensemble-avg-neng-t850_mslp_prcp6hr-1578400.png.d82fde6107bb9cabc8f022bc2fbc1760.png

    12z GEFS (GFS ensemble mean) is weaker and farther off shore, also similar to its operational:

    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2022010212/gfs-ememb_lowlocs_eus_22.png

    Gfs on an island right now compared to the rest of the international models.

  22. Good King Tide today.
    It’s funny watching people who are either ignorant or not familiar with it up in the Hampton Beach area acting like it’s never happened before.
    Same neighborhoods flood now that flooded since they were built. It’s a fact of life if you build at sea level in Marshland. It’s not rocket science…

  24. 18z NAM…for Monday.

    12km version: a foul tip off Nantucket. Nothing elsewhere.
    3km version: A dusting on the Cape, a few inches MVY, a half foot ACK.

  25. AB is no longer a Buck . What a disgrace & a slap in the face to everyone who has helped him .

    1. he is a joke. but Brady continues to support the guy. I have lost alot of respect for Brady over the past year.

      I am seeing behavior from Bill that I have not seen under brady all that much in the regular season. They caught him and Mac Jones joking around on the sideline and Bill was laughing and had a big smile. I swear Brady was really the one who made Bill grumpy.

      1. and seeing behavior from Brady that makes me think the disgruntlement was due more to Brady than Bill if there truly was any..

        1. Maybe BB is happier because Brady is no longer pointing out his lack of support for the team. Especially financially. Either way. I will always support someone who gave us decades of phenomenal football. BB had another phenomenal QB. Let’s hope he gives him the respect he deserves.

  26. Another thing though, Wilkerson should have been the one out there playing along with Meyer’s Bourne, Agalor, Henry and smith not Harry since about mid-season. I hope Harry stays on the pine as Wilkerson proved himself in pre-season and especially today. He was beating coverage all day and has speed.

  27. Antonio Brown is really a sad case. Incredibly talented. Had support mechanisms, including Brady. Was given multiple chances to redeem himself, not just on the football field. When push came to shove it was ALL about him, not about the team. That’s what’s so disappointing.

      1. he needs help but he keeps pushing the help away so sometimes a person has to hit rock bottom to learn and thats what is happening with Brown.

  28. South Coast TV snow maps, IMO, have the accumulating snow WAY too far NW. To me, this looks like GFS-biting, and it’s going to bite back. More reliable guidance for short range plus a little meteorology says the scenario of accumulating snow all the way back to the northern suburbs of Boston westward to Worcester, and 1-3 inches almost up to Boston is highly unlikely.

    I’ll eat the words in a blog comment if those forecasts are correct. 😉

    1. That’s what I’m reading from Mets so you are not alone

      We were just at my sons house in lincoln RI. The wind was strong and bitter. Not so here.

  29. HRRR 00z incoming. This is going to show a very flat snow area just on the South Coast. Watch…

  30. Getting ready to head in for the night shift down here… this has been a wild 36 hours for us! The southern NJ Philly suburbs where I am are right on the edge of potentially significant snow accumulations. Big snows are likely DC, BWI, into Delmarva. Agree with TK on mainly on a non-event for SNE.

    1. In 2010, there were several storms in which Baltimore and DC got hit hard while SNE barely had anything. One delivered several feet of snow in the DC area, but only grazed the South Coast of New England.

  31. I actually like the long-range forecast. It’s not chock full of snow chances, but it will feel like winter and be sunny again. I love those days. I really missed the sun the last 4 days. It got to me today; the drizzle, the nothingness.

  32. 00z NAM (both 12 km & 3 km), as well as the HRW series all with the South Coast scrape, some plowable on the islands, and that’s about it.

    Flat, fast-moving waves and tremendous dry air do not result in decent snows in SNE when they track like that (with the exception of the islands in this particular case, but even there, not a “big” storm).

  34. The “new” guy on WBZ, Josh Nichols, has widespread 3-5” for the Cape/5-7” for both islands, 1-3” South Shore, even up to 1” for Boston to Hartford.

    1. Yes I asked Tk regarding that nothing but a few flakes on the south shore . I received an alert basically saying the same as above . Island storm !!

  35. 00z NAM with an extremely sharp cutoff on the northern fringe of the snow shield…

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2022010300&fh=84&dpdt=&mc=&r=us_ne&p=snku_acc&m=nam

    Unless you are on the immediate south coast or islands I’d be surprised if there is any accumulation.

    Some impressive 12-15” totals across northern VA, central MD, DE and southern NJ. These areas may have three times the season to date snow than Worcester has (3.8”) after this storm.

    Speaking of sharp cutoff, look at the range of snow totals across the PHI metro area…. From nothing in the NW suburbs to 10” just SE of the city….tough forecast for WxW’s office!

  38. 00z Oh Canada! model has a South Coast scrape, in the same camp as the short range guidance. GFS currently an outlier for Monday.

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