47 thoughts on “C-19 Chat Post – January 3 2022”

  1. So apparently CDC did team up with former football players – you may recall that I thought this would be a good idea – but it’s a promotional campaign I had never heard of until today. See link below. The federal government earmarked a paltry $3.5 million for the entire campaign that’s been ongoing since March 2021! No wonder I hadn’t heard of it, and no wonder it wasn’t on prime time TV, at least not here. I also asked my siblings who live in other parts of the country, with lower vaccination rates, and they had never heard of the program or seen the vaccine promotionals. If you’re going to do a campaign like this you gotta spend the money. Government throws billions of dollars at projects all the time, but is cheap when it comes to distributional aspects – like planning allocation and renting out mass vaccination centers- and messaging.
    https://www.medpagetoday.com/special-reports/exclusives/96464?

  2. This shows Biden’s plan when he took office. Joshua, you have mentioned his plan. I support Biden. I voted for Biden. It is impossible to say that he has not failed ….in this instance….our country.

    https://twitter.com/juliaraifman/status/1477807041771196417?s=21

    For folks who do not use Twitter, this is the official WH link, I posted the Twitter link because the comments are also good

    https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2021/01/National-Strategy-for-the-COVID-19-Response-and-Pandemic-Preparedness.pdf

  3. Many states have overwhelmed hospital systems. See tweet below. While Omicron is milder than previous variants – thankfully – its impact on the healthcare system is as bad as previous waves, especially if you view this as a nationwide problem, which the initial wave in March 2020 was not (it was heavily concentrated in certain areas like Boston and NYC). https://twitter.com/thehowie/status/1478020220455370763

    1. Very scary. I posted Dr Faust’s circuit breaker map (mentioned in comments) yesterday but didn’t fully understand it

      Joshua, how are you feeling?

  4. I am pleased to report that school has gone very smoothly today. There are just a couple of staff members out. Nearly all of my students were present. We’ll see if this holds for the rest of the week and until MLK, Jr.’s Birthday.

    1. Captain…..IIRC you had large numbers prechristmas. I may be wrong, but I wonder if the more cases a school had prior, the fewer maybe now. Just a thought. And I may be wayyyyyy off because my mind wants to tell me that you are in middleboro but my mind can make things up

  5. Vicki, I’m doing well, thanks. The GERD/IBS flare-up was over fairly quickly. No rhyme or reason. Glad, though.

    On the new variant – originating in Cameroon – it is spreading. See tweet below. While it’s not necessarily cause for concern, it’s yet another variant that has immune escape. It may – emphasis on the word “may” – compete with Omicron and Delta. It’s also caused more severe symptoms in those it has infected thus far. Keep in mind that natural immunity and even vaccine immunity mean less now than they did. The mutations in the latest set of variants allow for reinfections and get around immunity quite well. Most of the time people who are vaccinated are protected from severe disease. But certainly not all the time, and especially not those who are elderly and otherwise vulnerable.
    https://twitter.com/UkTruth2020/status/1478080989461192704

    By letting the virus rip as many countries have, we’re allowing society to function, yes, but we’re also laying the foundation for fertile ground for new variants. It’s a difficult tradeoff. Here, I’m not talking about lockdowns, since those won’t happen here – nor do I want them, too. I’m just talking about minimal mitigation, which we’re clearly not doing. https://twitter.com/UkTruth2020/status/1478080989461192704

    I’ll tell you a mitigation which I think should be implemented but hasn’t, and that is limits on gatherings in apartment buildings. Last night, my noisy upstairs neighbor had a very large gathering in her very small apartment. It was unannounced, so no-one in the building knew of it happening. I certainly noticed the stomping, noise, etc … My guess is there were at least 15 people (all in their 20s, I think) in a 420 square foot apartment.

    In the 5 story townhouse condominium building I live in are at least 5 people over 65, one person with cancer (pancreatic), and another who’s a breast cancer survivor. You’d think that common sense would prevail and there wouldn’t be these kinds of large gatherings here. But, we have no protocols, no nothing.

  6. First day back, by daughter gets notified that she was exposed
    from one of here students with whom she worked closely
    this morning. She is being allowed to stay and teach as long as she keeps testing negative. What a policy!
    The school system sucks, their covid policy sucks! The policy for the whole damn state sucks!
    When will this bullshit stop???

    1. This morning??? So the student went to school with covid????

      The damned tests don’t pick up a positive if a person is symptomatic This is literally criminal

      I’m so sorry JPD.

  7. Some 2022 predictions, this time on Covid-19 and public health; the contours of how it will play out in the U.S. and what the impact will be on the practice of public health, going forward.[Please note, for those interested, I also posted an article on 2022 predictions for the economy, politics, and drug pricing. This can also be found at Forbes.] https://www.forbes.com/sites/joshuacohen/2022/01/03/predictions-2022-covid-19-and-public-health/?sh=3987d80a3b4d

      1. Because it is Lexington, South Carolina. They have districts 1, 2, etc and they are having inclement weather.

        1. Ohhhh that makes sense. Thanks. It was mentioned under Tracy’s tweet re baker (assuming you know of or know Tracy). Now I wonder if the person who mentioned it also thought Lexington MA or if Lexington was reprimanded by Riley for closing today.

  8. In Southern France where B.1.640.2 is brewing, ICUs rates are twice as high as the rest of France, while case numbers – incidence – are the same.

    Yet, almost no-one in the U.S. is talking about this new variant. I often wonder what the hell people are doing at CDC. I have a day job that involves 50 hours of work a week and does not involve Covid. Yet, in doing about 20 hours a week of observing Covid trends I (and many others) are able to spot what’s on the horizon. The CDC seems asleep at the wheel.

    1. It seems to me they have done the same thing with every variant. It also scares the hell out of me.

  9. I was at a fast food restaurant earlier and while I was waiting for my order, I was watching CNN and the Antonio Brown debacle of yesterday. Along the crawl space at the bottom of the screen, I thought I saw a statement from the FDA that the period between boosters may be reduced from 6 months down to 5 months.

    Joshua, is this correct or did I misread?

      1. Thanks SC. I guess that means I am due for my booster next month (February) instead of March. I wonder if my health care provider will send an updated notice with this new info? I have always been on the Pfizer vaccines.

  10. – SClarke is indeed correct on the spacing of boosters.

    – Vicki, JPD, what I don’t get is why there isn’t even any reference made to B.1.640.2 by CDC. Not looking for a big announcement, as that could lead to undue worry at this point in time. But, I am hoping that Walensky and her colleagues in other agencies, like Fauci, would mention it. Maybe I’ve missed it, but I haven’t seen any official comment on it. Community transmission is occurring, which means it’s competing on some level with Omicron and Delta. Let’s hope that it fades like Lambda did. But we can’t be sure. And hope isn’t a public health policy.

    – Number of Americans hospitalized with Covid-19 has topped 103,000, highest since January 2021. So higher than at any point during the Delta wave. Numbers in ICU are high, too, but NOT as high as during the Delta wave peak. This suggests that Omicron is relatively less severe. I wouldn’t characterize it as “mild,” but I would say it’s less severe. Deaths will also not be as high as the Delta peak, and also not as high as the Alpha peak. This isn’t just due to Omicron’s level of severity. It’s also due to vaccines. Vaccinated folks who are hospitalized have a much greater chance of surviving than the unvaccinated. Back in January, most people were unvaccinated.

  11. Whoopi Goldberg, host of ABC’s “The View” has tested positive for Covid-19 over the holidays even though she is fully vaccinated. She hopes to return to the show next week.

  12. I’m reading countless parents say there is no evidence of student to family transmission. Good grief. How do people have their head in the sand. I can’t even count the number of families infected by their kids who got covid at school. Who in his right mind would believe that?

    1. “No evidence of student to family transmission” sounds like a wacky statement. The virus spreads whenever and wherever it can. It is more efficient in certain situations than others. But one thing we definitely know is that household transmission – thus, among family members of all ages – is the biggest source of infection spread. Makes sense, too. It’s where the most prolonged exposure is.

        1. He says when kids are not in school they are Doing all sorts of things in the community. My God. Does he know children. After school a child is doing the same if a parent is not aware of what his or her child is doing. But with thousands of children daily testing positive in a school, whatever they are doing out of school pales in comparison.

  13. Were up to 21.5% positivity rate in CT. Our hospitals currently have 1,452 people with Covid in them. Governor Lamont was asked if a statewide mask mandate would be put in and his response was he said he did not think so and felt people are doing the right thing and wearing masks. He acknowledged there is a rampant community spread of the virus.

  14. Joshua, what are your thoughts about boosters every 5 months now? That certainly doesn’t say much about Pfizer’s vaccine efficacy imo.

    Of course it seems too many fully vaccinated are getting Covid anyway. See “Whoopi” above.

    Btw Joshua, has your daughter regained her strength back?

    1. Thanks for asking about Lisa, my daughter. I spoke with her today. She feels a lot better. She traveled to see her Mom today in the Netherlands. She had to test prior to boarding the train, and it was negative. She had postponed the trip by two weeks. She and her mother went into the city of Amsterdam this afternoon, where they walked around a tourist-free and `locked down’ city. Obviously, the lockdown means reduced earnings for hotels, restaurants, etc … though the government is very generous in its Covid support – essentially guarantees them money for all expenses, including overhead (also almost all employees retain their jobs, rather than become unemployed).

      You make a good point about the fully vaccinated and boosted coming down with Covid-19. The CDC and others made the BIG mistake back in May of saying that the vaccines cut transmission risk to a very low number. I thought this was wrong then and wrote about it. And we now know that the vaccine doesn’t cut transmission by very much at all, especially the further removed you are from your last shot. What the vaccine does VERY well is reduce the chance of severe illness. That is what matters most to an individual person. Unfortunately, at the collective level, numbers of cases/infections/transmission matters a lot because we still have many unvaccinated people and vulnerable vaccinated folks. So, although if we get the virus we will probably be fine, that doesn’t necessarily apply if we then transmit to someone who is vulnerable. Individual versus collective risk. I try to convince Americans to think in terms of collective risk, but that’s a HARD sell in an individualistic society.

      The spacing intervals of boosters are getting smaller. While I understand it, I also think there’s a risk attached to this. If you tell someone their immunity wanes after 3 months they might think – understandably – that the vaccine doesn’t work. The vaccine kind of loses credibility.

      1. There needs to be a Covid-19 vaccine that gives at least a full year of protection much like the current flu vaccine. Otherwise, these anti-vaxxers are going to gain more and more credibility.

        It’s time for these pharmaceuticals to seriously develop a “once a year” booster, if not a once-in-a-lifetime shot and end this pandemic NOW!!!

        1. Philip, from what I understand, the flu vaccine/shot is only good for about 6 months. This gets us through the heart of flu season. We just don’t need protection for the other half of the year. Covid-19 is obviously different, where there hasn’t seemed to be much of an off-season. As for the new 5 month guidance, this is only specific to the 3rd shot in the series. There has been zero guidance on additional shot timing. I’m sure that will change, unfortunately.

      2. Another worrisome problem caused by large numbers of cases/infections/transmissions is the tremendous opportunity for the virus to hit upon the next great (for it!) mutation.

  15. – Test positivity in Massachusetts >20%
    – Deaths reported, includes weekend data: 39
    – There are 2,221 patients currently hospitalized with Covid-19 (25% jump in 1 week) with 402 patients that are in intensive care units (5% jump in 1 week), 245 patients intubated and 813 patients that are reportedly fully vaccinated.

    The only good news here is the separation between increases in numbers of hospitalized and those in ICU. The two curves are NOT parallel: Probably due to lesser severity of Omicron, vaccines protecting from the most severe illness.

    Still, it’s not a pretty picture. The most people hospitalized since January of last year.

  16. I just listened to our SC meeting. Captain I am even happier for you that your day went well after listening to our superintendent. Throughout this area and it seems somewhat beyond, it is a mess.

    I’ll share his comments tomorrow. I’m too upset to clean up the notes I took tonight

  17. Grafton Board of Health issued an order mandating masks in all public spaces, including businesses, effective Wednesday

  18. Joshua – just catching up & read your 2022 outlook in Forbes – excellent insights and so well written as always! Blows my mind that you can produce so many outstanding articles in so little time – you are a workhorse! So very much wish we valued artistic talent like your writing skills in the same way we value other lesser things (see finance as a whole – sigh.). But mad respect for your work product – it’s a privilege to read your work!

  19. This is a massive problem. >105k hospitalizations. Topol thinks we’re headed to more than 130k, which is the previous peak, essentially prior to vaccines. https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/1478201482289709057

    The good news is there is a good degree of decoupling between hospitalizations and deaths. So, we were having 3,650 daily deaths late last January, now it will be , say, 1,700 daily deaths, at its peak (I’m guessing). Nevertheless, that’s a lot of death. With the average age of death dipping well below 75 nationwide (could get as low as 70 if the trend continues) it’s also a lot of younger folks.

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