Sunday November 13 2022 Forecast (7:24AM)

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 13-17)

Our temperature step-down continues. The transition to a chilly pattern is ongoing and after we booted the tropical air and remnants of Nicole with a cold front yesterday, it stayed pretty mild behind that initial front while the dew points did drop. A follow-up disturbance and secondary front will cross the region today with some morning and midday rainfall, then another drying trend and even cooler air arriving as we end the day. By the time we see any appreciable clearing, the sun will be about ready to set anyway, so definitely not the brightest of November days today. As we start the new week we will be in a pattern of below normal temperatures. Dry weather is expected for Monday and Tuesday as high pressure dominates, but during Tuesday, the clouds ahead of the next low pressure system will arrive. The next system will be a low pressure area moving northeastward off the Middle Atlantic Coast around Virginia late Tuesday night, which will then track northeastward, passing south and east of New England Wednesday. While this system will not be turning into a powerhouse low, it will be intensifying quickly enough to expand its precipitation shield across our region, making for a wet Wednesday. If precipitation arrives quickly enough in the early morning hours, it could be in the form of snow or at least rain mixed with snow, mainly over interior portions of southern New England. If that happens, the brief duration and relatively warm ground would prevent any accumulation of snow save for a possible brief coating on chilly surfaces (car tops, fallen leaves, etc.), but the system will be mainly a rain-producer. That moves out on Wednesday night, and a renewed shot of cold air arrives Thursday. At this time a little disturbance will be passing by above, and this can help spawn a few rain and snow showers during the day (snow showers most likely inland and higher elevation locations), but not a big deal from that. A gusty wind and chilly air will be more noticeable than any passing rain/snow shower.

TODAY: Cloudy with periods of rain through midday. Partial sun later on, especially I-95 westward. Highs 48-55 by midday then turning colder west to east. Wind variable becoming NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts by late day.

TONIGHT: Clearing. Lows 28-35. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 42-49. Wind NW to N 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

MONDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 25-32. Wind N diminishing to under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Increasing clouds. Highs 43-50. Wind N to NE up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Chance of rain toward dawn, except possible mix/snow interior locations especially higher elevations. Lows 32-39. Wind NE up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Cloudy with periods of rain, may be mixed with snow early well inland and higher elevations. Highs 41-48. Wind NE 5-15 MPH inland and 15-25 MPH coast, higher gusts especially Cape Cod and Islands.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Rain ends early. Lows 34-41. Wind N 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

THURSDAY: Sun/cloud mix. A passing rain or snow shower possible – snow showers most likely interior locations / higher elevations. Highs 41-48. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 18-22)

The weather pattern will favor below normal temperatures during this period with dry weather for most of it, and then a temperature moderation and some unsettled weather by the end of the period from the next low pressure system moving into the Northeast.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 23-27)

Guidance inconsistency on recent runs, but overall idea remains similar. While it will be difficult to time systems this far in advance, looking for a potential threat for unsettled weather sometime in the November 24-25 window and possibly again at the very end of the period. Temperatures near to below normal is the current expectation.

32 thoughts on “Sunday November 13 2022 Forecast (7:24AM)”

  1. Thanks Tk , it’s a good day to be back at the office today between the weather & no pats today . Will I hang up the t-shirt & move to the sweatshirt next week ( not sure yet lol ) been also trying to keep the heat off but that might change next week as well , possibly change,

    1. Are you on a rotating work schedule or is Sunday a typical work day? I’m moving from a short sleeve tee to long sleeve. This house heats well but I’m very happy if we don’t have to use the AC.

      1. Hey Vicki as you know I’m back on days 7-3 thank god I hated 11-7 ) my new regular schedule is Sunday – Thursday 7-3 & holidays if it falls On one of my scheduled days . I luckily am off the holidays this year .

      1. Unless the air mass was too warm, which couple be entirely possible too. 😉 The month helps (climatology), but the pattern matters more.

  2. Boston did not shatter the record high min yesterday. I think they broke it by 2 degrees.

    A very old record high temp of 76 (going back to 1909!) was tied, not broken.

    I was listening to an old mix I made yesterday and I came across a NWS weather forecast from Nov 12 1984 when we had a nearly identical weather system moving through. Warm and humid, wet weather, followed by a sharp cool-down.

    It’s actually fairly common for autumn to see these types of set-ups, especially when the trough has been West and ridge East, and the pattern starts to shift, as it’s doing now.

    1. I remember 1984. The summer started off quite hot, but it was not as hot as 1983 as you know.

      I agree. We have always had spots of “Indian summer”. I think it is the consistency of warmest years on record that is alarming.

      I keep meaning to ask. For averages, do we now use the last 30 years or do we go back to the start of records?

      1. They are on the 30 year averages which were recently updated, so when looking at events that are further back we need to keep that in mind. 🙂

        1. Thank you. Doesn’t make sense to me. Because the last 30 years have been warmer, it skews everything. But it also doesn’t surprise me.

  3. Thanks TK.

    Its a raw 45 degrees here but the sun is finally starting to peak out. Shock to the system after being a good 25 degrees warmer yesterday at this time!

    1. No sun here in Boston whatsoever. A much gloomier day than expected. A very typical November-looking day to say the least.

      I wonder if I will see a sunset before daylight ends?

      1. Maybe a horizon sliver. Once the second disturbance went by, wind went NW, too much low level moisture to clear us out. Was hoping for better, as reflected in my forecast. But that clearing was only partial and mainly in the far western reaches of my forecast area. Sometimes it doesn’t work out…

    1. No that’s ok.

      My son’s choir is singing at an outdoor ceremony on the 26th and immediately after they flip the lights on at the common we’re driving to Worcester for a TSO concert, and the next day we’ll be decorating outside for hours, so I’ll take a rain check. 😉

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