DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 13-17)
Our temperature step-down continues. The transition to a chilly pattern is ongoing and after we booted the tropical air and remnants of Nicole with a cold front yesterday, it stayed pretty mild behind that initial front while the dew points did drop. A follow-up disturbance and secondary front will cross the region today with some morning and midday rainfall, then another drying trend and even cooler air arriving as we end the day. By the time we see any appreciable clearing, the sun will be about ready to set anyway, so definitely not the brightest of November days today. As we start the new week we will be in a pattern of below normal temperatures. Dry weather is expected for Monday and Tuesday as high pressure dominates, but during Tuesday, the clouds ahead of the next low pressure system will arrive. The next system will be a low pressure area moving northeastward off the Middle Atlantic Coast around Virginia late Tuesday night, which will then track northeastward, passing south and east of New England Wednesday. While this system will not be turning into a powerhouse low, it will be intensifying quickly enough to expand its precipitation shield across our region, making for a wet Wednesday. If precipitation arrives quickly enough in the early morning hours, it could be in the form of snow or at least rain mixed with snow, mainly over interior portions of southern New England. If that happens, the brief duration and relatively warm ground would prevent any accumulation of snow save for a possible brief coating on chilly surfaces (car tops, fallen leaves, etc.), but the system will be mainly a rain-producer. That moves out on Wednesday night, and a renewed shot of cold air arrives Thursday. At this time a little disturbance will be passing by above, and this can help spawn a few rain and snow showers during the day (snow showers most likely inland and higher elevation locations), but not a big deal from that. A gusty wind and chilly air will be more noticeable than any passing rain/snow shower.
TODAY: Cloudy with periods of rain through midday. Partial sun later on, especially I-95 westward. Highs 48-55 by midday then turning colder west to east. Wind variable becoming NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts by late day.
TONIGHT: Clearing. Lows 28-35. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.
MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 42-49. Wind NW to N 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.
MONDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 25-32. Wind N diminishing to under 10 MPH.
TUESDAY: Increasing clouds. Highs 43-50. Wind N to NE up to 10 MPH.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Chance of rain toward dawn, except possible mix/snow interior locations especially higher elevations. Lows 32-39. Wind NE up to 10 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Cloudy with periods of rain, may be mixed with snow early well inland and higher elevations. Highs 41-48. Wind NE 5-15 MPH inland and 15-25 MPH coast, higher gusts especially Cape Cod and Islands.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Rain ends early. Lows 34-41. Wind N 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.
THURSDAY: Sun/cloud mix. A passing rain or snow shower possible – snow showers most likely interior locations / higher elevations. Highs 41-48. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.
DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 18-22)
The weather pattern will favor below normal temperatures during this period with dry weather for most of it, and then a temperature moderation and some unsettled weather by the end of the period from the next low pressure system moving into the Northeast.
DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 23-27)
Guidance inconsistency on recent runs, but overall idea remains similar. While it will be difficult to time systems this far in advance, looking for a potential threat for unsettled weather sometime in the November 24-25 window and possibly again at the very end of the period. Temperatures near to below normal is the current expectation.