Friday February 3 2023 Forecast (7:23AM)

296 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 3-7)

The arctic boundary is just clearing the South Coast and crossing Cape Cod as I write this at 7 a.m. Friday, and now it’s time to endure about 36 hours of intense arctic cold, coming in on moderate to strong north northwest wind today, peaking tonight and very early Saturday, and easing by later Saturday. Please be safe if you have to be outside at all during this time. Recovery from this arctic blast will be quick from later Saturday through Sunday, when some areas will see temperature rises in the neighborhood of 50 degrees in 30 hours. A southwesterly air flow on the back side of arctic high pressure, which doesn’t waste any time moving to our east, will be the reason. Some cloudiness with the return of the milder and more moist air will be the result Saturday night and Sunday at times, but right now I am continuing the trend of no precipitation through Sunday that was evident yesterday. At most a few flakes of snow could occur in northern and western areas Saturday night with the passage of a warm front. After a wave of low pressure goes by to the north on Sunday, the boundary comes back as a cold front later Sunday and thwarts the warm up for a day on Monday, but this time we’re not going to see arctic air behind that front. The boundary, now in a wavery mood, goes back to the north again for Tuesday with a stronger low pressure wave moving through the Great Lakes, and before its cold front crosses the region some time that night, we’ll see a pretty mild day on Tuesday.

TODAY: An early-morning snow shower near the South Coast / Cape Cod, otherwise sunshine and a few passing clouds. Highs 25-32 early, then falling through the 20s and 10s to below 10 by evening. Wind W 5-15 MPH with higher gusts, shifting to NNW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts. Wind chill falling below zero during the afternoon.

TONIGHT: Clear. Lows -15 to -8 I-95 belt westward from I-90 north, -7 to 0 elsewhere. Wind NNW 15-25 MPH, higher gusts. Wind chill -25 to -45 at times.

SATURDAY: Sunny. Late-day highs 8-15. Wind NW 15-25 MPH and gusty, diminishing later in the day. Wind chill as low as -25 to -35 in the morning, easing slowly as the day goes on.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. A brief snow flurry possible central MA and southern NH. Temperatures steady 8-15 evening then may rise slightly overnight. Wind NW 5-15 MPH evening, SW up to 10 MPH overnight.

SUNDAY: Variably cloudy. Highs 37-44. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 25-32. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy early then sun returning. Highs 35-42. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Clouds come back again. Lows 28-35. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of rain showers late-day or evening. Highs 45-52. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 8-12)

Colder air arrives behind a cold front early in the period, fair weather through February 9, and watching the February 10-12 window of time for a potential winter storm threat.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 13-17)

Another potential winter storm threat looms during this period as well. Temperatures variable – averaging near to above normal.

296 thoughts on “Friday February 3 2023 Forecast (7:23AM)”

  1. Thanks TK !

    I’d like to echo what Hadi mentioned at the end of yesterday’s blog, you could hear the front passing through.

    There was enough morning light to watch the line of snow showers fall apart approaching Marshfield. What was a nice, solid line of very low top cumulus on the northern horizon became a rather sad scattered few clouds by the time it passed overhead.

  2. Good morning and thank you TK.
    front came through here around 615 to 620 with a 10-15min snow shower. no squall It has been more than an hour with temp drop of 6 degrees from 31 to 25.

  3. Driving up to Okemo, will report how miserable the cold is.

    We cancelled our ski school for tomorrow and moved it to Sunday.

  4. From Petey B. I love this guy. 🙂

    “I get the feeling people aren’t all that impressed with this cold blast.
    “Relax, weather nut, it’s winter.”
    “It’s only around for a day.”
    “Who cares?? I’ll be inside all day.”
    “Big deal, it’s 40+ by Sunday!”
    I’m sensitive to this feedback, so I’ll just leave you with this.
    Don’t go outside naked. And if your pipes freeze, you know you need better insulation.
    (Kidding aside, please check on your elderly neighbors and keep the pets warm & hydrated.)”

  5. Thank you TK.

    Walked the shore this AM and could only do a half-walk. It wasn’t the temperature, but the winds.

    Just got home from Antarctica where it was truly warm compared to this.

  7. Current Conditions: Mount Washington (From the Observatory)

    Wind Speed Wind Direction 10-Minute Gust Wind Chill
    86 mph W (280°) 100 mph -76° F

    Temp
    -25.8° F

      1. Based on winter’s track record so far, not high confidence, but in reading TK and WxWatcher’s thoughts going forward, I would say improved chances of something close to this compared to what we have seen.

        1. Yes, that is true and a concern.

          Even if it verifies, each of those GFS systems delivers
          about 6-8 inches. NO big deal. 🙂

      1. I’m not typically up early any more but what I thought was a clap of thunder woke me somewhere around that time. It was the wind hitting the house. Yikes.

        1. I wonder if its because since the arrival of the arctic air has sped up, the diminshing of the winds is also speeding up a bit. Things should still being mixed with a breeze into morning, but if the winds slacken just prior to sunrise, maybe an already frigid airmass can get a bit of radiational cooling added to it.

          1. or maybe not. Looks like the coldest temps are around 4-5am, when the coldest core is overhead.

            We actually gain a 1F or 2F headed to sunrise.

            1. Yes, I noticed that as well.

              This is the COLDEST air in some time.
              It may in fact be the coldest air I have ever seen
              living in JP.

              Back in my college days, I experienced
              -17 when I lived in Millis. I had one of those heated
              dip stick in my car engine all night. next morning
              with -17, my old junk heap care started right up and i was able to drive to College. 🙂

              Coldest I ever experienced was -25 at Mt.Snow Vermont in Jan 1971. BRRRRRRRR!!!!!
              My 1970 Couger started after several infusions of Ether into the carburator 🙂 🙂

  15. Thanks, TK.

    Vicki, around 6 a.m. I was in bed but awake and thought I saw a flash from the window and a few mins. what sounded like thunder. I guess it was just the wind. What concerns me most about this cold weather is if our lights go out. That tends to happen to us a lot. Currently 16 degrees here in Sudbury.

  16. Could the thunder been accompanied by the snow shower/squall activity that came through the bay state from northwest to southeast very early 4-6:30? They looked fairly impressive on the tv mets radar but weakened considerably by the time they reached Boston. I only saw flurries or very light snow during my commute.

    Just a thought.

  17. Imagine if we had a typical deep snow cover what temperatures we would be facing. I bet records would be smashed to say the least.

    1. Speaking of cold, the S HEM is experiencing some really impressive summer cold. More about that soon…

  24. Latest writeup from the Mt Washington Observatory:

    https://www.mountwashington.org/experience-the-weather/higher-summit-forecast.aspx

    They are going with a low tonight near -50F, wind gusts to 135mph, and wind chills to -110F below.

    If this verifies it will tie the all -time coldest temperature ever recorded in New England. -51F would break it.

    https://newenglandhistoricalsociety.com/the-six-places-that-suffered-the-coldest-temperature-ever-in-a-new-england-state/

    1. The United States wind chill record is also in jeopardy.

      There are only three times in U.S. records that the wind chill on the currently used scale appears to have hit -100°F. On January 16, 2004, New Hampshire’s Mount Washington Observatory, notorious for its harsh winter conditions, recorded a temperature of -41.8 degrees and a wind of 87.4 mph, leading to a wind chill of -102.6°F.

  26. I am pleased that the temperature drop has NOT been all that
    dramatic so far. I know it’s going to take a dive later, but the longer the delay, the better. Been hovering between 18
    and 19 here for sometime. 🙂

  29. Thanks TK! I’m cold just looking at the numbers out there 😉

    No big changes in my thoughts on the large scale pattern. The next 2 weeks will probably turn out warmer overall than I would’ve thought. The MJO is a factor there despite a more favorable Pacific. But I agree with TK on a winter storm threat 2/10-2/12. And more broadly speaking, in a winter where most have already written the season off, I’d expect most forecasts to trend towards incorporating greater cold and snow risks for much of the next 1-2 months…

    1. Thanks WxW!

      Have you been following the anomalous cold outbreaks in the S HEM this summer? And this is without antarctic blocking much of the time!

      We never hear about that up here because I think media forgets that there’s another hemisphere down there.

      1. I have not in fact! As you say, not something that’s usually on the media (or my own) radar unless it’s something particularly exceptional. But if you have any good links, drop them!

        I have heard it’s about to get much colder in Europe, after what’s been an extremely mild winter there similar to the East US. Been big in driving nat gas prices wayyyyy down, totally counter to what many feared for this winter.

  30. It’s 18F where I am. Not especially cold or windy.

    In January 2003 and 2004 there were sustained periods in which during the day in Boston it was considerably colder than it is now. These were fairly long stretches, as I recall, with some (but not much) snow cover. I remember watching the Patriots play the Colts in Foxboro on a truly cold day/evening.

    I do know it’s quite cold in some places. But not in Boston. I am still doubtful Boston goes below zero tonight.

    2. January 2004.
      Logan went below 10°F on 11 occasions and below zero 4 times. -9.2°F departure for the month.

    3. There were also continuous below freezing stretches of 3, 5, and 9 days at Logan in January 2004. It was a remarkably cold month.

  35. I generally prefer using the Pacific/western US pattern, proxied by the PNA, as my top indicator of what the overall 2-4 week Eastern US pattern will be, at least in the cool season. Certainly worked well in January – despite early model suggestions to the contrary, there was zero chance of a cold/snowy month in the East with that Pacific freight train roaring.

    Now, the Pacific is more favorable, although in this case the PNA isn’t the best indicator of that, since this winter it’s been more about the strength of the jet stream than where the prevailing troughs and ridges are, which is more relevant to the PNA calculation. The change in the Pacific is a big part of why I’ve been thinking colder/snowier for the first 2-3 weeks of this month despite most models showing the complete opposite. Now, the models are coming on board. But there’s other factors of course, like the MJO, which I probably didn’t weigh heavily enough in my February thoughts.

    My “base case” for the Northeast over the next 2 months or so is temperatures that, if not below normal, will at least be a lot closer to normal than they were in January. And much better snow chances for the I95 corridor – at least in line with average if not more. The stratosphere may also work in favor of this forecast, though I think it’ll generally go this way with or without. However, one “risk” to that forecast is if the Pacific jet does roar back, which is a possibility, then there will be warmer/less snowy outcomes on the table than I expect.

    1. Same here, just a little colder. It’s been 12-14 since 9am.

      I just took a 20 minute walk on top of the snow and ice. It was great!

      1. I think the temperature is about to crash big time.
        All of the short range guidance certainly hints at it.

        1. Logan is 12. Not often Logan is lower than JP. We have been the same or a degree or 2 lower all day. What’s up with that?

  51. Incredibly low dew point at -12 here on South Coast. This is really cold dry air. As I note the 5pm sunset this evening I am reminded of the old proverb – “As the days get longer the cold doth get stronger”.

  54. If you could send some good thoughts or say a prayer for my brother David who is in the hospital, I would very much appreciate it. I’ll elaborate when I can. Thank you so much!

    I haven’t had much of a chance to look over weather info but from what I have seen, not much to change in the update. Temp tweak a degree or 2 down maybe? At this point that won’t make any difference really other than what the values are for the recording purposes.

    I’ll be back asap!

  57. Mt Washington:

    Temp: -42F
    Wind Gust: 111 mph
    Wind Chill: -102F

    I believe they have now tied their own ALL TIME LOW for wind chill.

  59. It’s 11.8F where I am, but apparently colder at Logan (11F).y

    I’ve been out three times today. Once for a long run; once for grocery shopping; and once just to enjoy the cold. It has definitely gotten colder in the past hour or so. Not brutal yet. Well, for me anyway.

    TK reminded me of one of my all-time favorite months – January 2004 – when Logan went below 10°F on 11 occasions and below zero 4 times. -9.2°F departure for the month. That’s the way I like it.

    1. You should try jogging up the Mt Washington auto road in the morning and see how far you can get before you are satisfied 🙂

      1. My son and his wife both said it sounded like a good day for a hike up Washington. But then six years ago tomorrow they met there for a hike to the summit. It was their first date

  61. Eric is reporting Mount Washington at-44 and wind chill at -104.

    He also reported that the air has compressed so much because of the cold that the top of Mount Washington is no longer in the troposphere. It is now in the stratosphere which has come down to the 5,000 foot level. I don’t know if this has happened before but sounds unusual for sure.

  63. I’m really more concerned with the wind here tonight vs the cold , if I loose power it will be extremely bad in more then one way , it is very windy here all daylong!!

    1. I was just coming here to say this. Although cold would make lack of power horribly difficult so maybe it is both things. We have a trees down in Sutton and across 146S in uxbridge. I think we would be ok but I suspect we’d be in the minority.

      1. I hade the fire place & enough wood bits it’s at 9 now & I would be more worried of pipes freezing . I’m running the temperature at 70 since last night . The house is literally shaking

        1. You have forced hot water? Hopefully, they are well enough insulated to be ok till we warm up. I assume you will drip a faucet anyway. Good luck.

          1. My carpenter & house builder told me he did not think I needed to as sometimes he said it could cause issues

            1. I have a finished basement with real ceiling not drop . Only the small mechanical area is not totally insulated

              1. Not a Plummer ? I’m
                Not sure what issues it could cause, but you gotta do what you gotta do. Good luck.

  65. MWN still crashing…

    -45F / -106F

    *Wind chill record broken.
    *2 degrees off their all-time record
    *5 degrees off the all-time New England record

  66. Sending prayers for your brother, TK.

    We lost power 30 minutes ago. We have a gas fireplace with battery, so we have heat in the living room.

    Home is creaking in the wind!

    1. Oh nooooo Captain. Glad you have the fireplace. We have one also. I hope you and all who have lost power stay safe

  73. We (actually, a neighbor whose weather station is available on Weather Underground) just hit 0F here.

    Vicki – I was wondering why you specifically hoped for -51 on Mt Washington. Now that I look more closely at the Auto Road Vertical Profile Temperature on the web site, I understand!

    1. You are clever. Yes, I’d like to see them break the record.

      So cool. Mine used to be on wunder but the system died. We also have a close house. We are at 4 still.

      1. If it goes below -47, the all-time low record will be broken. If it goes below -50, the web site may be broken.

        1. I thought -50 was the record?? And at the moment I cannot access the site. But it may be my internet. It has been bad lately.

    1. The Great Lakes. This is very typical for arctic air. Lots of snow virga too – but none of it makes it to the ground – way too dry.

  76. -47F is the all time record low for Mt Washington

    -50F is the all time record low for New England set in both Maine and Vermont.

  77. -50 in Bloomfield VT – Dec 30 1933.
    -50 in Clayton Lake ME – Jan 16 2009.
    Those are your co-record all time lows for New England.

    Mark is correct. -47 is Mt. Washington’s all time record low.

    1. Thanks. The Mets need to be a bit more specific. Mark did post this above. Either way, I’m hoping for at Least -51

        1. He’s stable, sedated, and they are doing testing.
          I don’t have a lot of info yet, but I am pretty certain it’s an aneurysm of some degree or another.

    1. Website is overloaded and responding slowly.

      -46F now with a wind chill of -109.

      1 degree away from tying their record but the rate of temp drop has really slowed down now.

  80. Oh TK. So sorry.
    Thinking and praying for him and your family for comfort, strength and a complete recovery.

    Power came back on about an hour ago.
    5.4º

  82. Wind gusts seem to be a little over some of the guidance projections. This reveals a limitation of the short range guidance, probably as a response to the unusually low tropopause. The current guidance programming would underestimate some of the gusts produced by lower atmospheric squeezing. A theory anyway.

  84. It’s 1.5F here. So, I was VERY wrong. It will definitely get below zero in Boston. Somewhere in Boston it’s 0F. At least my computer is saying it’s 0F.

  85. 0 in Jp. it has fallen 4 degrees in the last hour. I was out for a bit. it is brutal and very windy. I would say it was cold!!!

    dp -22

    plenty of room for temp to fall more.

      1. Interesting that SE Sutton is staying fairly even to JP We were -3 when I started typing but just dropped to -4

  86. -35º

    There is a three-way tie for the all-time coldest low in Massachusetts.

    Without looking it up, I know (and have researched) here in Taunton on January 5, 1904. There was a massive fire at the Taunton State Hospital that night.

    The second place was in Chester, also the site of the highest maximum temperature in Massachusetts history in 1975.
    I do not recall the year of the coldest day in Chester.

    There is a third -35º. I think it was in the 1980s, but can’t remember where.

    1. I don’t recall hearing sustained wind for so long in the seven years we have lived here.

      How is your house temp?

  88. GYX has recorded the lowest 850mb temp ever observed at that location: -35.5C. The tropopause started below the summit of Mt. Washington at the time of the sounding. As they noted in their statement, there is some grey area on where the stratosphere begins, but it’s definitely possible that the summit of Mt. Washington was and may still be technically in the stratosphere.

  89. The answer to the quiz is -40F (which also happens to be -40C) in Chester MA on January 22 1984.

  98. -6 in S Sutton. Interestingly, though, I’ve been following Bow NH where my brother is and York Harbor where friends are. They were maybe 9-10 degrees lower than we are but are now half that lower than here …..especially york on the coast

    1. I do wonder though if any of the Boston neighborhoods got lower than -10F?

      “Interior” sections like JP, West Roxbury, Hyde Park, Roxbury??

      What about you JPD?

      2. see above. I only made it to -9. My equipment has been pretty accurate, but perhaps this shows it can be off by a little?
        OR Logan was just a tad closer to the core of the coldest air? I dunno. Still damn cold!

        I am still reading -8 here.

  111. Pretty impressive shot of cold air.

    not for nothing, but the Euro was onto something many days ago.
    Perhaps we didn’t quite achieve the magnitude of cold predicted by the Euro but we didn’t miss by much. 🙂

  115. Hard to believe that this intense cold comes during a pretty consistent phase of global warming/climate change. I imagine during our Ice Age these temperatures were just a normal, routine winter’s day.

    I will be so glad to see tomorrow’s temperatures. 🙂

    1. these short spouts of cold will become a more regular occurrence in between long stretches of above normal temperatures. 😉

  117. Bottomed out at -15 at my house with a -32 DP. It’d take some work to saturate that column LOL.

    Now back to our normally scheduled winter. Mild and rain.

  119. -11F in Coventry CT this am.

    -7F right now passing through Rockingham VT on our way to Killington. Warming up fast 🙂

  120. I forgot to set alarms so just woke up. We got to -12 in SE Sutton. We are -4 now. The blackstone river and canal runs behind my sons home in lincoln RI. The canal was all water yesterday and flash froze overnight. He had frost quakes all night on his deck.

    Were any Records broken?

  121. For me, the hands go first then later my feet. Are the hands the most vulnerable to cold compared to the rest of the body?

    Generally my body itself tends to stay warm.

  122. My coldest reading – if my thermometer is accurate – was -8.8F.

    I’m lucky. My body runs warm all the time, even when it’s cold. So, I deal well with this. 90F, not so much (really anything above 85F).

    1. I am the same. I actually had a lot of trouble sleeping with the heat set to 69 overnight. I typically have at 63/66 or 67 night/ day. But I kept thinking of people without heat and felt awful for them

      Captain? I didn’t see if you posted today. And TK, I am praying all is ok for your brother

    1. Thanks Vicki. Very informative. Amazing how so much global “warmth” can still result in bouts of intense cold.

  128. I don’t recall ever experiencing negative double digit temperatures in Boston in all my 60+ years alive. That’s been reserved for the immediate suburbs as far as I can tell.

    Did Logan actually outdo places like Newton for example?

  130. I am beginning to wonder now if the coastline had the colder temperatures than the interior.

    But that’s not how it usually works around here.

    1. I don’t think so based in a few areas along the south and north coast I checked. But the temps were close. The couple Of areas I followed …York Harbor and Bow NH….yesterday crashed a lot faster than Sutton did. But then they leveled off and we caught up. But it took a while. I found that part interesting

  132. Pretty wild how we’re going to have such a quick and sharp relative warmup with cold like this and no precipitation out of it.

      1. With my luck I probably would have scorched myself. Boston was certainly more than cold enough for that stunt. 😉

  135. Brother: Left hemisphere stroke. He’s stable, conscious though sleeping most of the time because of sedation so things can be kept stable and bp under control so the initial brain bleed can clear and early recovery can be underway while they do better scans and eventually get a prognosis. Will take up to a few days before we really know anything. Thank you again to all for prayers, good thoughts, and well wishes!

    Updating blog now…

  136. I didn’t read every single comment yet (I will) so I don’t know if this was already posted, but Mt. Washington recorded a low of -47.1F which does tie their all time coldest temp at the summit.

    1. Actually I see Longshot did. But I’ll just leave this in case someone missed that one and saw this one instead. 🙂

  137. So sorry to hear about your brother TK, hoping and praying for the both of you and your family. Put all that stuff first!

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