Thursday February 1 2024 Forecast (7:36AM)

81 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 1-5)

We start the second month of 2024 much the way we ended the first one: grey. Any breaks in the stubborn cloud cover that appeared in southern NH and northeastern MA overnight quickly fill back in today and even above that some mid level cloud cover is moving in ahead of an approaching warm front. You’ll hardly notice any impact from that warm front in terms of precipitation (none) and temperature (modest rise at best today). Tonight, a cold front swings through the region, also largely devoid of precipitation – only the slightest chance of a rain or snow shower with its passage north to south. During Friday, this front will temporarily slow down near the South Coast as a ripple of low pressure moves along it. This will induce a shield of precipitation along the South Coast for a few to several hours in the morning to midday hours. This looks like it will fall mostly as rain, but marginal temperatures can allow some mix or a brief turn to snow in some areas before the area exits with the departure of the low pressure wave. Unfortunately, sun seekers will need another day of patience as clearing looks like it will be delayed until after sunset on Friday. If anybody gets lucky enough to see some breaks in the cloud cover and a hint of brighter sky at least, it will be north and northwest of Boston toward the end of the day. Finally, there’s better news for the weekend and Monday as a high pressure area building into the Great Lakes will send a drier northerly breeze into our region, and while it will be seasonably chilly, we’ll have 3 days of sunshine! And after a long break without a fully sunny day, you’re going to notice that the brightness of the day begins a little earlier in the morning and lasts a little later in the late afternoon with sun now setting after 5:00 p.m.

TODAY: Cloudy. Highs 38-45. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Cloudy. A light rain or snow shower possible from north to south. Lows 30-37. Wind SW shifting to NW up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. A period of rain possibly mixed with snow near the South Coast morning to midday. Highs 37-44. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 20-27. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 33-40. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 16-22. Wind NW up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 32-39. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 17-23. Wind NW up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 33-40. Wind N 5-15 mph.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 6-10)

A blocking pattern will be in place keeping high pressure to our west and north while a large ocean storm spins to our southeast. A north to northeast air flow here will keep it chilly. Enough northeasterly component may induce ocean effect snow showers any day from February 6 to 8, favoring Cape Cod and MA South Shore, but too soon to pinpoint how high the chance is and what the result would be. Just something to keep in mind.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 11-15)

Blocking weakens and we see 1 or 2 storm chances by mid February. Temperatures near to slightly below normal.

81 thoughts on “Thursday February 1 2024 Forecast (7:36AM)”

  3. Good morning and thank yiu TK.

    Eyeing that possible ocean effect event. 6z gfs has backed off some after 0z had a rather significant event. We shall see.

    35 here

    ocean temp 41.7

  6. CPC monthly outlook for February was updated and they have removed the above normal temperature forecast.

    Not surprised.

  8. I am always happy to see the end of January. Not being a winter guy, it signals brighter days (hopefully) and generally warming temps are close at hand. I realize winter is not over but it seems we are at an inflection point. Each passing week makes a difference and a missed storm is a big deal. At the very least, winter this year has been dramatically shortened.

    1. I share your view. Although what you say is true, it is comforting to know that some of our biggest snow storms have come in February and March and let’s not forget the huge April 1st storm of 1997.

      1. I know there can be monster storms in February and March. However the further we get into March, it seems the bigger ones become more outliers. That plus a tranquil forecast for early this month make me optimistic.

      2. We have had blockbusters in March and well as into April. Add to that the shift in seasons. I’m not writing anything off. But that also doesn’t mean I am saying we will have more. I’m just enjoying each day. I love winter. Snow or no snow

        Do I detect more wish casting from non winter folks? I could well be imagining it.

          2. Though I do think it is helpful to determine what can happen and what is likely to happen. I don’t want to add to the growing gap between snow and non snow folks on the blog but thought these were valid points.

  9. TK, your thoughts on why the EURO, Canadian and UKMET
    have not yet picked up on that possible Ocean Effect Event.
    Wind flows on those models suggest the possibility, yet they show nothing. I find it most curious because to me the possibility really does exist. Of course we won’t know until we get closer or until it actually gets here.

    I find it intriguing. Many thanks

    1. My theory.

      HTE + guidance.

      GFS overdoes blocking. Other guidance under does it. At least in this situation.

      1. I guess time will tell. I am disappointed that the GFS has backed off considerably, but at least it is still on the table.
        Will be following this. Many thanks

  18. Breaking News from the ‘Boro:

    We are now in a Possible Sun Exposure WARNING!!!!

    We have brightening and partially blue skies with, what I believe are called, shadows on the ground.

    Film at 11.

    1. From the Old Farmer’s Almanac:

      Many people think the midpoint of winter is always Groundhog Day, but it varies. If you check the latest edition of the Farmers’ Almanac, you’ll see that it’s Saturday, February 3, 2024—the exact halfway point between the Winter Solstice and the Spring Equinox.

      Winter is the shortest of the four seasons, lasting 88.99 days. It is shortest because at this time of year, Earth is at its closest point in its orbit to the Sun (known as perihelion). So when an object is closest to the Sun, it moves fastest in its orbit; gravity insists upon that. That is fundamental natural law.

      Conversely, we are farthest from the Sun in early July, so we are moving slowest in our orbit. Which is why summer is the longest season, lasting just over 93 days.

      1. Figures the longest season would be my least favorite, though when I was a younger lad I LOVED summer.

  20. February 2 is also Candlemas Day, the 40th day after Christmas.

    I found this as well on the UK’s Royal Meteorological Society’s website:

    The 2nd February is Candlemas Day, a Christian festival that marks the midpoint of winter, halfway between the shortest day and the spring equinox. There are many weather rhymes associated with Candlemas, most along the lines of “If Candlemas Day be fair and bright, winter will have another fight. If Candlemas Day brings cloud and rain, winter won’t come again”.

  21. There’s WAY too much hyperbole in the weather world. And there’s way too much hyperbole in the prescription drug industry world. In a piece posted this morning I wrote about the tortuous saga of Biogen’s Aduhelm, which was somehow once touted as a “game changer” and is now the poster child of a dud. I do wish we could get rid of that phrase “game changer” as it hardly ever applies. https://www.forbes.com/sites/joshuacohen/2024/02/01/alzheimers-drug-aduhelm-went-from-being-hailed-a-game-changer-to-becoming-a-dud/?sh=53d379354ad3

    1. Great article Joshua! I actually worked at Biogen for a time as a program management consultant helping to develop this drug (and others) and also on the clinical end for their expanded access programs. That company is a mess right now.

    1. The wind is calm.

      Thus, if one would like a little breeze with their arctic air, you could head to Barrow, where it is -13F but with a 14 mph WNW wind, for a wind chill of -35F.

      1. I personally would head in the southerly direction to maybe St Thomas, where it is 81F, with a 72F dew point and a heat indice of 85F.

        Yes please !!

        1. I do know that this is what most people long for.

          Maybe I’m insane. Perhaps I need a medical intervention. I don’t know.

          I get invited to a business conference in Southern Florida every February and I turn it down. Why? For fear I might miss out on some cold and snow in the Boston area. And because the last place I’d ever want to go is a humid spot. For me dewpoints above 60 begin to irritate me.

  24. The story I’m hearing lately on the nightly TV weather forecasts is that we’re gaining light. Fake News! At 3:43pm today it is about as dark outside as on the darkest day of the year. I’m not kidding. It is so gray.

    1. Daylight gain is accelerating now. “Solar winter” (the darkest 3 month period of the year) just came to an end.

    2. Hahahaha. Although it is cloudy we are definitely gaining light at night. I have mostly all smart lights. This is the time of year I have to change the time they turn on every couple of days. Moral of the story. They aren’t that smart

      Did we start gaining in the morning first though or did I make that up?

      1. It starts coming back in the afternoon first, then the morning. But the difference is hardly noticeable at first anyway. Now it’s just noticeable on both ends of the day. 🙂

        1. Ahhh got it. Thanks. My day shifted from 6-10 to 12:30-9 when I retired so I would not notice morning. Afternoon has been noticeable for a while. I don’t drive at night any more (cataract) so have to plan getting granddaughter home from barn and back here before dark. Sunset has been later for a while.

            1. Thank you very much. Will definitely help setting a time to pick granddaughter up. I can’t believe sunset is now after 5:00. She checks it daily but with the snow coverage hasn’t ridden for two weeks. It sure has changed in that time.

              Sending this to my granddaughter too.

  25. Thanks TK.

    Disturbing trends on the models today for Southern CA. Flooding in the LA area and throughout much of SoCal is probably going to be making National news over the coming 10 days….

    Jim Tang
    @wxmann
    2h

    Absolute whack outputs from the guidance today, and this is all within the Day 5 range now. ECMWF paints 10″ of QPF in LA proper, with much more in the mountains. Huge problems if this comes true. Rainfall could be measured in feet in some locations.

    https://x.com/wxmann/status/1753133950141137105?s=20

    Ryan Maue
    @RyanMaue
    6h

    Total rainfall modeled for next 10-days is astounding for Southern California. ️

    Instead of talking about snowfall at 6 to 12-inches, we’ll be talking about rainfall accumulations for Los Angeles.

    Coastal higher elevations will be upwards of 15-inches of rain.

    11-Trillion gallons for California as a whole.

    https://x.com/RyanMaue/status/1753065309378855397?s=20

  27. “Half the wood and half the hay you should have on Candlemas Day” is another very old saying associated with winter’s midpoint. I have a book that is full of these. 🙂

  30. I was kidding with the fake news comment regarding the daylight. I know that more daylight is returning. It’s just that with this stretch of gray it’s hardly noticeable. This afternoon looked particularly bleak.

    1. Yeah, as I mentioned, it was brighter after lunch period into the early afternoon. But when we got out of the staff meeting at 3, we were socked in again.

    2. I knew that. And if I hadn’t been sitting near a window, I would have missed both brief sun sightings. 😉

  31. January 2024 was the 5th wettest January on record at Blue Hill Observatory with records dating back to 1886.

    This is the only one on the top 8 list from this century.

    BHO Highest January Precipitation, inches (1886-2024):

    1) 11.61 in 1979
    2) 10.97 in 1958
    3) 9.85 in 1978
    4) 9.56 in 1956
    5) 9.24 in 2024
    6) 8.49 in 1996
    7) 8.47 in 1999
    8) 8.41 in 1936

  32. I was in a meeting in Holliston shortly before noon when the sun emerged, brightly! (I actually had an excited outburst right in the moment.)

    1. I can imagine. 🙂

      (FYI this initially went into moderation because of a one-letter error in the email. I’m letting you know in case it gets saved in whatever device you use. I fixed it and approved the message, but just keep an eye out that it doesn’t repeat and send other messages into moderation.) 🙂

  33. Thanks CF for your response regarding the halfway point to winter. I find it interesting though as to why summers “seem” so short and winters “seem” so long, the opposite effect.

    You as a teacher I imagine can relate to the “former” statement. 😉

    1. Personally Philip I think the last few winters with the mild weather seemed to make the winter go by quicker . You watch it’s going to be Presidents’ Day weekend in a flash

      1. I have always teased that, if March and July both have 31 days, why does July always seem to fly by three times faster than March?

  35. CPC has had the same typo in their ENSO outlook headlines since January 11. “El Nino is expected to continue for the next several seasons, with ENSO-neutral favored during April-June 2024.”

    The phrase “next several seasons” should read “next several weeks”. 🙂

    I did write to them to alert them of the error. 🙂

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