Wednesday January 31 2024 Forecast (7:06AM)

114 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 31 – FEBRUARY 4)

On this final day of January, we will experience a little change from the previous 2 days. A slightly stronger pressure gradient initiates a more active air flow, this time from the southwest, and this should help mix the air and help create some fairly substantial breaks in the cloud cover, with partial sun, maybe even a couple longer periods of sunshine – a respite from the several days dominated by a grey sky. But don’t get too used to it, because a trough dropping southeastward out of Canada is set to bring lots of clouds again Thursday into Friday as we begin the month of February. A slightly milder Thursday can be expected before a little colder air arrives on Friday. This trough accompanied by a surface low pressure system will drag a warm front through the region on Thursday followed by a Friday cold front. Some rain and snow showers will accompany the passage of this weather system, but don’t expect any significant impact. The first weekend of February, while being seasonably cold, will feature fair weather as a blocking pattern sets up and places high pressure over the region.

TODAY: Clouds break for sun at times. Highs 32-39. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy evening. Mostly cloudy overnight. Lows 25-32. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of afternoon rain showers. Highs 38-45. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Rain showers possible evening, snow showers possible overnight. Lows 28-35. Wind SW 5-15 MPH shifting to NW.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy with a chance of snow showers in the morning, then partly sunny. Highs 35-42. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 20-27. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 33-40. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 16-22. Wind NW up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 32-39. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 5-9)

A blocking pattern will keep our region chilly and mainly fair with a large storm in the southeastern US moving out into the western Atlantic. The circulation between this system and high pressure to the north turns the wind northeast and this may be enough to create some ocean effect snow showers in coastal areas during the February 5-7 time frame.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 10-14)

Blocking weakens and we see 1 or 2 storm chances heading into mid February.

114 thoughts on “Wednesday January 31 2024 Forecast (7:06AM)”

  2. Good morning and thank TK

    temp 29 here.

    ocean temp 41.5

    ho-hum weather.

    I van’t believe tomorrow is February 1st already!!!!

        1. The signal is there for storminess and colder weather moving in beginning around that time period. That’s about all we can ask for right now on the models.

          I expect a lot of “Right I’m Santa Claus” systems showing up on the GFS extended as we get into early February.

          1. It only matters what the sensible weather is come that day and as I stated, that is a long way off. We shall see.

            Better that is shows a cutter now, than a direct hit that goes poof later. 🙂

  13. The difference….

    The low pressure systems from here on for a while are going to be larger, more defined, subtropical jet stream systems. A more classic El Niño look.

    Of course don’t assume every one comes right up here. That’s a case by case determination. (Refer to my winter outlook for more.)

  14. The Possible Sun Exposure Watch and the Trumps looking into a solar eclipse clip last night reminded me that we have a total solar eclipse on Monday, April 8 for northern parts of NE, NY and southern Quebec.

    These New Hampshire towns will experience totality:

    https://eclipse2024.org/eclipse_cities/total/nh

    with Idlewilde having the longest duration.

    Taunton will have 91% coverage with maximum eclipse at 3:29 pm EDT.

  16. Last week, Salty Brine was mentioned. Here’s a little bio on the Rhode Island legend if you don’t know who Salty was:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HqCe_4PRZT0

    Wally Brine of “Loren and Wally” fame on WROR is Salty’s son.

    PS…I also remember the Mansfield FD fire horn blowing “2-2-2” at 7 am to alert us whether we had school or not. We listened to WARA in Attleboro for our no-school list. I would hold my breath when King Philip was announced because Mansfield was next in alphabetical order. If the announcer went to Norton and North Attleboro, I wondered if announcer skipped a line in his copy and forgot to say “Mansfield!” 🙂

    2. I do not remember or never knew about Wally being his son. loren and Wally was a daily listen for mac and me. Thank you for this

    1. On average we are past the coldest part of Winter.
      I actually think that is somewhere in the vicinity of Jan 15th through the 20th or so. Not exactly sure what the actual coldest day is on average.

      1. Yes, it’s circa January 20th. But that is the average. It doesn’t tell us what will happen in any given winter. Last year’s mild winter did have two cold spells, which were very brief but quite potent. They both occurred in February.

        1. Boston’s coldest temperature EVER was recorded in February. And lest we not forgot how cold in was in
          February 2015. 🙂

    1. I thought I remembered mac saying something like that. Thanks. . Mac’s only US Home between Sweden, South Africa and Rome was Akron. It was/is Goodyears home base.

  24. The British Met Office always provides no hype forecasts and excellent explanations of the weather and models. Uncertainty is the theme for February, though as the meteorologist explains, it’s quite layered. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q2t2AFfmaQE

    I learn more from TK/SAK/WxWatcher/JMA and following the Met Office than from other places.

    1. 14″ bullseye over Pembroke, lol.

      A lot of that looks like cumulative ocean effect snow in SE MA over time plus some from that ocean storm backing in (see my post below)

          2. LOL, they do indeed! They are coconut palms and we use the coconuts to hold our year-round tropical drinks. 😉

      3. Yes, I was just going to post that. It all starts with ocean effect and then there is synoptic snow from the fringes of a big ocean storm. Looks like it snows for 2 1/2 days, 6Z on the 6th through about 18Z on the 8th. None of that snow would be particularly heavy, just a duration event. 🙂
        Wouldn’t it be nice. 🙂 🙂 🙂

        1. btw, ZERO support from the EUro and only a whimper of OCE and ZERO synoptic snow from the GDPS. BUMMER!

  27. If those breaks don’t show up soon, I’m gonna get skunked on my optimistic breaks of sun forecast. 🙂

  30. After a busy morning I’m about to embark on a long jog along the Charles. Was hoping for sun. Instead it’s more gray skies. I believe the sun is on strike.

  33. DB .. typing this reply down here. I think I know what you’re referring to regarding Eric Fisher’s comment. I actually had that weathercast saved on my DVR (it was from last week) one night I taped the local news to watch later and never actually got to it.

    What Eric said, and I’m paraphrasing slightly, was basically this. “If the pattern doesn’t change, it’s possible we may have even seen our coldest temperatures of the winter season.” … He went on after that to elaborate a little more. And mentioned “of course there’s a long way to go” … He was basically referring to a scenario where we just never got to see things change up and our cold was not arctic in origin, or majorly modified arctic (like the previous cold shot we got not too long ago). But he did not say directly “we’ve had our coldest weather of the season”. He knows that we can get incredibly cold air much later in winter. Any met knows that who has spent any time around here. And we don’t have to look far to find a perfect example: February 3-4, 2023. 🙂 Trust me, Eric (and the rest of us) know this. 🙂

    That’s why earlier today I said “we haven’t” in reference to seeing our coldest of the winter. Our coming pattern affords us much better opportunities than we’ve seen so far. I’m not saying we’re about to go into the ice box for weeks, but we’re certainly not going to be blow torching anytime soon either. 🙂

  37. JPD .. the feature you noted is a little wave along the cold front as it drops to the south and slows down. There is the potential for a little ocean effect snowfall late Friday or Friday night along the MA East Coast, favoring the South Shore. I don’t think that lasts too long. The weekend we’re just dry. Next week is interesting … Do not rule out that the big whirlpool to our south has an extensive enough circulation to interact with high pressure to our north to drive the wind in from the northeast and create an ocean effect snow event for southeastern New England. While only the GFS shows it with any meat, this is an entirely possible scenario. These events have occurred in the past to the tune of several inches of snow. And while an arctic or deeper polar air mass would help, the air will be cold enough next week for one of these events should things line up just so.

  38. Thanks TK!

    I am definitely all in, as are most mets I’ve seen, on a colder and likely snowier pattern starting mid-February or a little sooner, and potentially continuing for several weeks. Same sort of evolution myself and others have been talking about for quite awhile now.

    As usual, confidence is higher in the “colder” versus “snowier” part. But I’d be pretty surprised if there are not multiple significant snow chances with this upcoming pattern. Anyone is obviously welcome to disregard or “believe it when they see it”, but that would not be a science based approach.

    In the meantime, odds of accumulating snow over parts of eastern MA early to mid next week are also increasing…

  39. Also worth noting that even though it will trend colder, the current state of things is not particularly warm to begin with. TK has chronicled at length how the “torch” pattern that is affecting parts of the country is not going to make it into SNE. While the next 7-10 days will probably run a modest positive temperature anomaly, it’s hardly a warm pattern… no bitter Arctic blasts to be sure, but it’s more or less seasonable weather.

  40. Thanks WxW.

    Looks like the Sierras are finally going to get smoked with the next couple incoming storms. I mentioned the other day that we are heading out to Palisades Tahoe in mid March for a ski trip and they are well below normal for snowpack so far this season. From what I am seeing, they are in line for potentially 3-6 feet of snow in the next week from these two storms. This will help a ton.

    What are your thoughts on the pattern in CA through the remainder of February and into March? It would seem to me that with an active southern jet setting up (after a brief reprieve from this coming week’s storms), that we should be seeing a parade of systems entering the southwest and tracking across the southern half of the country…..those same systems being the ones that will threaten us with winter weather potential on the eastern seaboard.

    1. Thanks Mark, and yeah this pattern is great news for the snowpack here, which is lagging like you said. Even though the upcoming snow amounts will be massive, the high elevations can generally “handle it”. The lower and mid elevation rainfall, on the other hand, is a much different story.

      Long range for here: I agree with your assessment. I think it’ll stay wetter than average out here, but not the sort of deluge of the next 10 days. I think it’ll be systems that are weaker, briefer, and/or suppressed south. It’s kind of a rule of thumb that so long as CA is getting slammed, it’s hard to get big winter weather in the Northeast. And that’ll pretty much hold true the next 7-10 days, but this “slamming” is necessary to set up the pattern change. From there, while CA won’t necessarily turn dry, it won’t be the sort of Pacific firehose pattern that shuts down winter in the East. The upper level look days 10-15 and beyond is really, really good for eastern US cold and snow.

      1. Thanks WxW, that is a good point that when the Pacific firehouse is going and CA gets crushed, there usually isn’t much happening here. Last year is a prime example of that. And makes sense too that if we get some ridging out west and a trough in the east second half of the month, it may quiet down some out there. Smaller systems are fine…as long as it doesn’t get too dry.

  41. Not a bad day today at all , loving these last few winters & it’s flying by with 2/1 tomorrow already

    1. Eh. Winter’s 1 month and 10 days old. We have a long way to go, and the coming pattern is not going to please some people, while greatly pleasing others. 😉

      1. It would be great tk to get a big snowstorm but nothing is a lock it’s one day at a time pattern change or not .

        2. Not having one isn’t a lock either. 😉
          The door swings both ways.

          Yeah, Easter is a stretch. It’s still 1 day shy of 2 months. And if you recall, we’ve had some pretty sizeable snows in March & even April. It doesn’t matter what the pattern has been so far. To be honest, it’s been pretty much what was expected. Mild, very little snow December. Variable, limited but more snow January (obviously the lack of polar jet kept the snow more inland than coast, but that’s conditional). We’re heading in the right direction if you want to get that big snowstorm. You’ll likely get your wish. This is not 2011-2012. 🙂

  43. On this date in 1983 at about 11:55 p.m., a thunderstorm downburst carved out a 5 mile damage path starting about 1 mile east of the Baton Rouge Louisiana NWS office.

    Straight line winds reached approximately 125 MPH. The swath of damage was, on average, about 250 yards wide.

    155 homes were damaged or destroyed, and 11 people were injured, including a woman, who was outside at the time, being blown 60 yards through the air.

    (From Weather Guide 2024)

  44. Old School TV Weather Trivia…

    Which former Boston TV meteorologist used YELLOW for cold fronts instead of the standard blue? 🙂

  45. Ice is completely gone from the Charles river in Boston. Even the shallow Esplanade lagoon has almost no ice. It’s not coming back any time soon (the next 7 to 14 days), except perhaps for patches near the edge which often melt (especially in the February sun when it’s in the upper 30s to mid 40s).

    Speaking of sun, there was none today. And there hasn’t been any to speak of for a 9 day stretch. Unheard of? No. Unusual, yes. In winter, especially. In spring I kind of expect it. In winter I do not.

    Agree with TK that winter has a long way to go. A lot can happen.

    But we’re still faced with largely above normal temperatures in the next 7 to 14 days. Not unusually mild here by any stretch. However, I would not characterize, say, low to mid 40s as “seasonable” for the time of year. And we’ll have quite a few days like that between now and 10 to 14 days from now. Nights won’t even be – and certainly haven’t been – all that cold either.

    What happens after that? Well, time will tell.

    I’m quite concerned when I keep seeing the British Met Office meteorologists say that there’s still a lot of uncertainty regarding what will happen in the month of February. This doesn’t just hold for the British Isles. It also applies to us. Their deep dives, in particular, cover weather globally (at least weather that has an impact on them, and given the jet stream North America impacts them a lot). Throughout this winter they’ve warned about the unusually high degree of uncertainty, with lots of model variation, even in the short term. I think they’re right to say “stay tuned regarding what happens after mid February.” Today they said they also see signals of change (towards slightly colder), BUT at the same time they cautioned against putting much stock in longer term projections.

  47. Did someone say easter….

    Easter is the Sunday following the first full moon on or after the spring equinox. Unlike TKs quiz, This I knew.

    You had me curious. This I did not know. Over a 500-year period (from 1600 to 2099 AD), it just so happens that Easter will most often be celebrated on either March 31 or April 16.

    This I also did not know. The earliest possible date for Easter is March 22 and the latest possible date is April 25. Easter can never come as early as March 21, though.

    Now for our weather experts, how many Easter’s in MA have had snow. This I also don’t know.

  48. This is the answer to my TV weather quiz above…

    Dave Murray was the only OCM (locally) that I have ever known to rehearse his forecast for nearly an hour before going on the air, and also used a teleprompter. 🙂 That’s all good – whatever you need to get the job done. Note: Today’s demands would never allow anybody to rehearse for an hour. Imagine! They’re on every 15 min and have to answer and post on social media. It’s non-stop…

    What I did not like was the yellow cold fronts. He did use red for warm fronts, so I figured the occluded fronts would have to be orange …but he never drew those. 🙂

    Also, take note of the sports event talked about at the end of the weathercast. 🙂

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9lvQEqXn9WI

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