Sunday March 10 2024 Forecast (9:39AM)

108 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 10-14)

Low pressure pulls away from the region and intensifies while moving toward the Canadian Maritimes via the Gulf of Maine later today through Monday, lingering into Tuesday as well. This will put us in a moderate to strong west to northwest flow with mainly dry weather. A lingering rain shower and a few patches of drizzle can be around at mid morning today in eastern areas under the low center before it departs. A few snow showers may traverse the region tonight as colder air flows into the region. No more than a sprinkle of rain or a few flakes of snow may fall during Monday. We’ll be out of the low’s influence by midweek, with a more westerly air flow, but that puts us in a battle zone between chilly air in Canada and warmer air to the south. Wednesday, a warm front will approach bringing increased cloud cover and perhaps a touch of rain later in the day or at night, and this front should get beyond the region for a mild and rain-free Thursday.

TODAY: Lots of clouds / intervals of sun. A sprinkle of rain or patch of drizzle mid morning mainly I-95 eastward. Highs 48-55 by midday then a slow temperature fall. Wind becoming W increasing to 15-25 MPH with higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. A passing snow flurry possible. Lows 30-37. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, gusts around 30 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. A brief light shower of rain and/or snow possible. Highs 38-45. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 28-35. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

TUESDAY: Partly cloudy to mostly sunny. Highs 45-52. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 28-35. Diminishing NW wind.

WEDNESDAY: Sun followed by clouds. Highs 48-55, coolest coast. Wind variable up to 10 MPH becoming SE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of light rain. Lows 40-47. Wind SE up to 10 MPH shifting to SW.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 55-62, coolest South Coast. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 15-19)

Unsettled pattern with periods of precipitation favoring rain to start, may favor mix/frozen later on as we experience a trend toward colder weather. Vernal equinox occurs at 11:06 p.m. EDT March 19.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 20-24)

Overall pattern looks chilly and active with 1 or 2 opportunities for unsettled weather, which may include frozen precipitation.

108 thoughts on “Sunday March 10 2024 Forecast (9:39AM)”

  4. 1.28 inches reported at Marshfield Airport.

    Must have fell in a short period of time and been heavy because driving around, I noticed multiple instances of small rocks on the sidewalks and even out a foot or 2 into the main roadways, in lines that looked like there had been temporary small streams.

  6. Good morning and thank you TK.

    Looks like Logan picked up 1.11 inches of rain overnight.

    GFS snowstorm now gone again.

    GFS snow through 16 days and EURO snow through 10 days non-existent in SNE.

    March is rapidly moving along. Already March 10th and DST to boot. 🙂

  8. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao.gefs.sprd2.png

    https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao.gefs.sprd2.png

    4th chart on both links.

    I believe they explain why over and over, the long range calls for snow and cold backed off so often.

    In actuality, the dark lines compared to the 2 week forecast, the AO and NAO were a lot more positive than the models projected 2 weeks out. Look how often and how much both were so much more positive than predicted 2 weeks out.

    Of course a more positive AO can relate to a stronger polar vortex, retreating the arctic air northward and a more positive NAO is more progressive with less blocking.

    Add in the MJO not helping out and it was at least 3 strikes against cold and snow before we even factor in El Niño.

    1. The AO outlook 14 days out was particularly terrible. Models so struggled with the long range outlook of the polar vortex this winter. There is a point just after Feb 15th where the 2 week outlook for the AO had an index prediction of -3 and it ended up being +2.

      Holy crap !! No wonder in late Jan early Feb it suggested cold with snow opportunities and in actuality, it was the opposite.

        1. 🙂

          Well, based on its track record this winter, until it’s 14 day outlook settles in a little better, going to guess it projects the AO too negative and as it adjusts, we’ll get model runs in the shorter range that retreat the cold air poleward..

      2. MJO has been the biggest enemy of winter weather lovers this season. There are other factors obviously but I think that one stands out.

        And that is one difference that we have coming up. This time it’s coming around to favorable phases and not weakening. Very late in the game but not late enough that it can’t result in something.

  10. How much of a factor will wind be tomorrow? Glad to see the sun out and no rain predicted for much of this week. Thanks.

  14. Thanks TK.

    It poured late last night and we received 1.44” overall on this storm. Now 5.09” in the month of March just 10 days in and 14.45” 10 weeks into the year.

      1. Yes indeed. Storm is only half over too….the backside upslope portion starts later today into tomorrow.

  15. eweather
    @Eweather13
    56m

    Meanwhile, heavy wet snow across northern New England last night….strong winds this morning across coastal Maine. Okemo with 13-14” new snow this am. 65k customer have no power across NY, VT, NH and ME this am. Tides will continue to run high as well with continued minor coastal flooding expected.

    https://x.com/Eweather13/status/1766831778050740257?s=20

  17. Boston tide gauge is reading 13.22 ft, just under 2 ft storm surge. Pretty high tide ….. low pressure of 989 mb is literally, relatively speaking, allowing for the ocean level to be slightly higher than it would be under Sat, avg high pressure of 1012 mb.

  18. Thanks, TK!

    So sorry for your auntie’s passing, Dr. S.

    1.28″ here in Taunton, the same as in Marshfield

    15.09″ for the first 70 days of 2024.

  20. Just got a video from my daughter, about 1-2 ft deep water in Brant rock village up to in front of Brant rock market.

    These king tides, if you get a bad storm with an onshore wind, the coast is cooked.

    That’s what I believe happened in the blizzard of 78. Multiple cycles on king tides to boot.

    1. Wow Tom . Boy that area sure has dealt with a lot . Thats not good for Trish & her crew today .

    2. I saw your video. Just heartbreaking to see the beating that area has been taking. I seem to remember concern for the Maine beaches. Also I have not checked the Humarock FB page to see how it is doing.

  21. I’m looking at the skaket beach cam, bayside in orleans and the water has to be only a couple feet below parking lot level. This is a bayside beach with a steep slope usually to the high tide line and the waves aren’t that big. Just a huge, on the level, high tide ongoing next 30-45 minutes.

  25. 12z GFS beginning to already retreat the cold in the long range. At hr 284 and I don’t see the cold surge anymore, but rather we are about to warm up ahead of a low that looks like it’s going north of us.

          1. Goes through 3/26
            I see 70 degree days in this run.
            Where did all the “cold” go????

            Amazing isn’t the word!!!!

    1. Agree. It takes my wife more than a week to adjust.

      I just get really tired later Sunday evening and that is about it.

      1. Also agree. Well, I like DST, I just wished we stayed on it all year and in New England, start everything a little later in the morning during Nov-Jan when sunrise would be after 8.

        But without DST, the sun in June would rise at 4:10 am and set at 7:25 pm, which in my opinion is too early on both counts.

        2. Or I’m in favor of New England having its own year round time zone, 1/2 hr ahead of EST and 1/2 hr behind Atlantic standard time.

          If an area is perfectly centered in its time zone, then the time the sun is centered and at its highest point should be 1pm during DST. At best, I’m pretty sure Boston gets to 12:51pm in late July but spends most of the summer at 12:45pm so all of New England is in the eastern half of the time zone.

          The closest overall we get to being centered is in Feb at 11:58pm (non DST time) and the worst we get is 11:30ish sometime in October I believe.

  28. Walked the shore at high tide. The waves were unbelievable! They cames over the wall; over the sidewalk; over the street; and into the park. Police and fire had to shut down the road. Traffic was an absolute mess. Winds seemed to be coming from the east at the time. What a sight!

  30. Daylight saving is going to mess up my internal clock for a few weeks at least. It does NOT feel like 2 oclock right now. I even went to sleep earlier to try to curb that feeling but it’s not working. We need to abolish it like so many others have done before. It’s weird, a few months ago I had three different people mention to me confidently that DST was abolished and I pushed back and proved them wrong. Where did they all get it in their head?

  32. I would like to stay on year round STANDARD TIME!!! According to the sun, NOT Congress!

    It was good enough for the Founding Fathers in 1776. 🙂

      1. 100% agree. I don’t mind the time change, personally, but if we are going to pick one, standard is the better choice.

        People would go NUTS with 2 months of after-8am sunrises late in the year.

        But the fact remains, sunrise/sunset are a function of your position on the globe. You’re going to lose it somewhere if you gain it somewhere else no matter how we mess with the clocks. 🙂

  35. I would not want DST year round. We tried it and it failed. Not sure how standard time would work but I am intrigued by Tom’s time zone. It seems to make the most sense A recent study said it takes an average of 5-7 days to adjust I seem to have the most trouble at the end of that range and then some. I don’t remember having any problems when I was younger.

    Now onto the weather. What a glorious afternoon. It’s a Rainshine kind of sky.

    1. Sorry if you said this already. I’m sleep deprived so cannot focus. A friend told me North Conway got about eight inches. Yay for the ski areas!!!

  38. Model Obs – Medium Range Edition…

    Short & sweet today. The GFS is having major issues with 2 streams and basically exploded on its 12z operational run. It ultimately leads to a WAY too amplified run displaced too far west! Disregard. Ensemble support is not there.

    Hybrid Canadian & European model depiction is closer to the pattern we’ll see heading into mid March.

    CPC agrees. See the 8-14 day outlook issued today for more.

  39. In other news…

    2023 saw the 3rd fewest Pacific tropical cyclones on record. Usually El Nino produces an active Pacific, but not this time!

    Strong El Nino is also typically known for heat, drought, and wildfires in Australia. Nope. Not this time. Benign.

    Media won’t tell you about either of these because they are not “exciting enough” but they are just as important to note as anything else. #ScienceFirstAlways

    1. Agree.

      Coverage of weather events can sometimes seem like watching the first 5 minutes of local news in which fires, murder and accidents often feature prominently.

      Frankly the sensationalism can be frightening. Back in 1995, I had just moved back to the U.S. and my ex-wife and were watching the local news (for her it was the first time) and she said “is this real? what’s going on? is it safe here?” An understandable reaction from a Dutch person who was used to staid, phlegmatic news reporting and few if any commercials. I told her, “see all those ads, well, they want to get eyeballs so yes they look for news items that will grab your attention and maybe even frighten you a little.”

      I’m quite disillusioned with U.S. media. It’s all about clicks nowadays. In my freelance writing even the editors are kind of obsessed by clicks and views. They’ve asked me to popularize my work. One person requested that I write a health tips column and maybe include prurient items. Needless to say, I balked. Not only am I not a doctor in my writing I don’t go for the sensationalistic.

    1. Indeed he is for 6th round pick . It’s pretty much a done deal but will be officially confirmed Wednesday after physical.

      1. Lawrence is not exactly injury-prone, so it could turn out to be a long stint as clipboard Mac, with the exception of the pre-season.

        1. It was advertised as he’s a backup & reading into that he will need to have a stellar camp to try & win the job or at least plant the seed .

      1. Having seen some of the comments from the so called Boston fans….he deserves better in that regard also.

          1. I feel the same. I’ve been hoping he’d move on for a while. I’m not sure Jacksonville’s coaching will get his confidence back. He won’t start so maybe that will give him time

            1. Doug Pederson should be a great coach for Mac. More known as an offensive coach. Beat the Pats in the 2017 Super Bowl with Nick Foles. There’s an opportunity for mac to grow, even as a backup in Jacksonville, that outside of his 1 yr with mcdaniel, he never had in New England.

              1. That is so good to hear. Exceptional comment and sure has me smiling. Thank you, Tom. He has growing to do but first he needs his confidence back.

  41. Some big flakes of snow coming down where I am. It is not accumulating. It is a reminder it is still winter.

    1. Oh wow. With any luck we will see some flurries here. My granddaughter has been wishing to see snow for days.

  42. Today we drove to the Albany, NY area. I’ve made this drive hundreds of times over the past 35 years and never seen it look so unlike winter at this time of the year. None of the water was frozen in the Berkshires and there was no snow cover at all.

    1. Indeed. A friend of mine whose relatives are in Albany said the same thing,. Not even ice on the rocks alongside the highway.

      I’ve driven the route many times and always enjoyed seeing lots of winter in the Berkshires in mid March when there was often little left in Boston.

      1. Very true about the ice. Most years at this time, and much later, the ice from water running over the rocks and freezing is a spectacular sight. Today there was very little ice, hardly more than slightly oversized icicles!

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