The Week(s) Ahead: A Dip Then A Dive

325 Comments

5:21PM

Today I’m going to do something a little different and go a little further than normal. Almost like TV Guide occasionally puts out 2 weeks of listings, I’m going to talk about the upcoming 2 weeks of weather, or how I think they are going to unfold. A detailed forecast will be provided only for the first week, as going into the 2nd week would be simply foolish to attempt, but we will discuss the pattern.

Week 1 (January 14-20): This week will feature a dip in temperature as a colder pattern begins to be slowly introduced, like dipping your toes into the chilly ocean before getting the courage to dive fully in. This will take place with the passage of 3 cold fronts. The first of these fronts will come through on Monday and will be the one pushing the murky air of the weekend out of here. The irony is, in the few hours before this front gets here, the mild air that could have dominated the weekend will finally have made it into southern New England fully, and the high temperature for the day will likely top 50 in most locations before starting to drop off. As this front slows offshore thanks to a the jet stream still flowing southwest-to-northeast over the area, a couple waves of low pressure will form and move northeastward along it. With cooler air coming into play, I cannot rule out the risk of a period or two of snow or mixed precipitation near the New England South Coast between Tuesday and Wednesday. It does not look like a major deal, and I don’t expect it to creep northward toward Boston but will keep an eye on it, just in case. The second in the series of cold fronts will arrive sometime Thursday and will do so with no precipitation, just some clouds. If anything did happen, it would be an isolated snow shower. Leaving this out of the detailed forecast for now. A sliver of high pressure will move in for Friday and Saturday before a third cold front moves through Sunday, getting us one step closer to some more serious cold air to cold. Can’t rule out a snow shower/squall with the 3rd front but it’s too far away to worry about any details with this. The reason we’re seeing just a slow change to colder with a series of fronts is because the Polar Vortex (a strong upper level low pressure area associated with very cold air often located north of the Arctic Circle) is making a push southeastward into eastern Canada, but will wobble around irregularly and elongate. The southern edge of this Polar Vortex (PV), instead of driving into the US Northeast, will flatten out into a bowl-like shape. This will keep the core of the coldest air just to the north of New England (though northern Maine would likely get into it) through this week. We will just see small pieces of colder air coming southward behind each cold front.

Skip to beyond the detailed forecast for week 1 for eastern MA, RI, and southern NH for a discussion of week 2…

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Areas of fog. Chance of drizzle then a chance of rain showers. Temperatures holding in the 40s. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy with isolated to scattered rain showers during the morning. Clearing west to east midday through afternoon. Highs 50-55 in the morning. Temperatures falling into the 40s in the afternoon. Wind SW 5-15 MPH gusting around 20 MPH in the morning, shifting to NW 10-20 MPH gusting around 30 MPH in the afternoon.

MONDAY NIGHT: Clouds return from southwest to northeast, thickest over RI and southeastern MA. Lows 25-30 except some lower 20s in sheltered inland areas far northwest of  Boston. Wind NW diminishing to 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny overall with most sun northwest and least sun southeast. Slight chance of a period of light snow/mix near the South Coast. Highs around 40. Wind NW to N 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Variably cloudy. Brief mix far southeast? Low 25. High 40.

THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 25. High 40.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 18. High 35.

SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Snow shower at night? Low 15. High 39.

SUNDAY: Partly cloudy. Snow shower/squall? Low 19. High 36.

Week 2 (January 21-27): Using the ECMWF (or European) model for guidance, believing that it has a better handle on the pattern than the less-stable GFS (American model), and a little bit of non-model meteorology, I am becoming increasingly confident that we will be diving into a cold pattern, seeing between 1 and 3 pushes of pure arctic air during this week. The timing and number of pushes or reinforcements will depend on development and movement of small disturbances coming around the base of the trough, or the southern end of the Polar Vortex, which appears that it will take up residence near or just east of Hudson Bay Canada and extend southward into the Great Lakes and Northeast. This is a very cold pattern for this area. The center of this vortex tends to wobble around when it is this far to the south, but the general position may be held in place for a while due to high pressure ridging solidly in place to its north and east, and also over western North America. So in summary, it is with a reasonable amount of confidence that I expect a very cold week with a few potential and most likely light snow or snow shower events, but largely dry weather. How big a story will the cold become? Time will tell.

325 thoughts on “The Week(s) Ahead: A Dip Then A Dive”

  3. Great update TK…thanks for all of your hard work in keeping us informed. Much appreciated. It sure is foggy and drizzly down here in Plymouth.

    1. You’re welcome Sue! That marine air sure has been stubborn like you see in Spring. Although Monday will be a fairly mild day down there!

  6. 8:15 and 49 dP and temp in framingham. If I were not so exhausted emotionally from games we’d be on the deck.

  7. What’ happened to the Gronk? !st pass his way and wham, he is out of action.
    He clearly landed on that previously broken arm. I heard that he requires surgery again. I don’t get it. If he was cleared to play, the arm should have been fine.
    SO, what does this mean? It means he WAS NOT READY!!! What a shame.

    We’ll have to make the best of it without him. Vareen was Awesome today!!
    New receiving weapon? I think maybe so.

    Let’s see how they fare against the Ravens.

    1. Report: Rob Gronkowski needs another surgery, done for the postseason 01.13.13 at 7:30 pm ET
      By Mike Petraglia
      6
      13 Comments

      FOXBORO — According to a report from Pro Football Talk, Rob Gronkowski needs another surgery after re-injuring his left forearm early in Sunday’s game and is done for the playoffs.

      Gronkowski fell hard on the left forearm making a catch out of bounds on New England’s second drive. He immediately went to the bench and was examined by team doctor Tom Gill. He then made his way to the team tunnel and had X-rays which revealed the break.

      Gronkowski initially injured the arm blocking on an extra point try on Nov. 18 and had surgery the next day. He came back and played against the Dolphins in the season finale before playing Sunday.

        1. Yup. Really sad.

          I just don’t understand why they just can’t let the players heal properly. Must be Greedy owners, which equates to decisions based solely on money. What a crying shame!!!

          1. I’m not as sure. rGIII played previous week no problem so being in game wasn’t a bad call. It was when in beginning of game where he slipped and came up limping he should have been pulled. Gronk played week before and was fine. He had 6 weeks to recover with a cast tonight When you land that hard on a previous break its harder to say. IMHO can’t compare the two.

              1. RGIII’s certainly could affect his career. And so could Gronks. Afterall, this is two (2) srugeries
                on the same arm. Cannot be good no matter what. Hopefully all will be fine. But it sounds gruesome.

              2. im hoping that gronk recovers enough to be present at the super bowl if he is able to travel…. most of the time if you do not play and injured you do not fly.

            2. I’m not as familiar with the RGIII situation, however, I am with the Gronk situation. In my opinion, he returned to action too soon. But what do I know? 😀

    1. There are signs it does hang around this time, Hadi. I think we may be seeing something more on the order of a persistent cold with lack of records (like December 1989), versus a couple wicked shots that break all sorts of records (like January 1982), BUT the subtle details will be determined by the orientation of the PV.

          1. I don’t feel an end to snow. And that surprises me. It’s all gut feeling. Absolutely no basis in reality.

          2. You crack me up. You seem so confident that it won’t snow too me. I bet you we have plowable snow before this month ends and that will set the stage for a snowy cold February, winter is by far no where close too being done, that I’m confident on.

              1. Here we sit on January 13, soon to be 1/14 and look at this Observation for the bouy 16 miles East of Boston: 😀 😀 😀

                BOSTON 16 NM East of Boston, MA
                (44013) 42.346N 70.651W
                Last Updated: Jan 13 2013, 6:50 pm EST
                Sun, 13 Jan 2013 18:50:00 -0500
                Temperature: 47.5 °F (8.6 °C)
                Dewpoint: 46.2 °F (7.9 °C)
                Wind: South at 13.4 MPH (11.66 KT)
                Wind Chill: 42 F (6 C)
                MSL Pressure: 1016.7 mb
                Water Temperature: 45.1 °F (7.3 °C)
                Wave Height: 0.7 m (2.30 ft)
                Dominant Period: 10 sec
                Average Period: 4.9 sec
                Mean Wave Direction: East (79 °)

            2. I can buy a shot of accumulating snow just ahead of the first arctic blast. Details? Not sure yet. Watch for something around next Sunday.

              1. Based on the 12Z Euro? I thought you were only slightly concerned?
                More concerned now? Do you have a 0Z preview?

                Curious about the details.
                😀

            3. John,

              I hope I am dead wrong. I don’t see it.
              I don’t feel it. But, anything can happen.

              We shall see.

                2. Agree OS. Depends on where you are. It’s kind of like the snow line. Unless you define it, you can easily shift to whatever you want. It need defining IMHO

  10. Yes Vicki again. Nobody believed in that storm after xmas. So it got botched down here, but still nailed it.

    1. Ummm I said all along the water temps would make a difference. You had 6 inches and coastal shoveling those 6 inches. On the other hand you have been saying there will be an MLK storm for a while. Will happily give you that. But please define plowable.

      1. Plowable 3inches or more. I nailed Xmas storm for the most part. That storm had surprises like I also predicted.

        1. Itd be huge if you would give numbers since three inches isn’t plowable here. To me it seems vague and gives a lot of leeway. Thanks

          1. Its a discussion for another day I guess. Take care. No disrespect just my opinion on plowable events. Not sure who wouldn’t plow a heavy three inches. I guess it depends on town and snow type.

          2. plowable is when there is 2 inches on the road. does not mean what has actually fallen it means what is on the road. i could have 5 inches on the grass with nothing on the pavement. it all depends. Honestly i think saying plowable is a joke because its so wide spread in the meaning. It also depends on the season and location and type of snow … snow removal companies want to make a certain amount of money each year … if it is a lighter year then you could see crews out that are scrapping the freaking cement with almost nothing going to the side but water just so they can say we plowed and get their money. then their is the heivy snow years and they do not want to go over the lim of resources and the amount that they are payed. so thier is less. dpends if its powdery kind of snow, icy or a wet snow. has it been cold latly has it been warm latly. how much is already on the ground. it all depends

      1. I wont even respond. If you don’t like my forecasting you can respectfully disagree. Not sure if you can do that. Have a nice night, hope your mom is better, take care.

          2. How is your mom coastal? I have been thinking about her. I’m quietly religious but have been including her in my prayers and thinking of her and of your entire family.

          3. I actually have been trying to learn the maps more, though I admit its not easy and would like to learn it more.

            2. its called youtube….. but i never used youtube really. unless i know its a good source. i have several books that i use though. that has helped me.

  11. Above should say watch the period January 20-22. I’m not confident enough in the timing and handling of those shortwaves. There is just some potential evident on especially the Euro not to completely discount the possibility of a period of snow somewhere around that time.

  12. Hello everyone 🙂 I cannot think of any clever remarks at the moment, but just wanted to see how everyone was doing 🙂

    Thanks for the warning TK…to bundle up…. 😉

      1. I actually didn’t get a break technically, haha. I am interning at a library in Manchester. It is for school credit. My last day is on the 25th, and I start school on the 28th. I will try to be more active on here 🙂

  14. According to climate data, a week from tomorrow, Monday 1/21 and Tuesday 1/22 are the coldest 2 days climatalogically of the year at Logan. We’re pretty much there now, as the temps will drop .3F of a degree the next 7 days.

    So, that means to be average, its got to be 36F/22F at Logan.

    For temp departures, I’d estimate another +10F to +14F, Tuesday-Thursday, +2 to +4F, Friday-Sunday averaging near normal.

    1. Great link. Thanks captain. Not only is there is little to no natural snow in an area where there was never a question of snow but now Washington that had Massachusetts ski weekend on Memorial Day weekend every year. Hope they do see the cold but makes me worry about avalanche potential.

      1. Love Mount Washington and the observatory, I head up in June each year for a car rally and we sometimes see snow. The prominence of the peak is extraordinary.

        3. What type of car rally. I love old cars. Used to race muscle cars at epping and just maybe on route 2 (but dont tell my kids) but helped restore some late 50s Chevys.

  17. I have what I believe is an old barometer. I’ve seen it online but not sure how it works and wonder of anyone here does. The markings are Ets. Maxant Barograph, 38 Rue Belgrand, Paris,

  19. lol i predicted the afc totally right. up to this point.
    wild card games
    Seattle 34, washingtion 31 . Last minute touchdown by seattle. i hope washingtion wins.
    packers 14 vickings 17 . 2 minute field goal
    texans 24 bengals 14
    colts 10, ravens 21

    divisional playoffs
    atlanta 12 seattle 17 outcome: atlanta 30 seattle 28
    vikings 17 49ers 14 the game was actually between greenbay 31 and the 9ers. 45
    baltimore 34 denver 31. over time field goal. Outcome: baltimore 38 denver 35 in
    over time feild goal.
    patriots 28 texans 25 Outcome : patriots 42 texans 28
    afc conferance
    baltimore 14, patriots 42
    nfc conferance
    seattle 27, vikings 21 last minute touchdown pass new possible out come between the 49ers at Atlanta.
    I will look into these match ups and look at them. and then post my predictions on the championships and the super bowl. but so far i have been right about the afc but dead wrong about the nfc. oh well.

    hadi remember when you said no way the ravens pull the upset 😛

  20. Thanks TK for the detailed discussion.

    0z GFS has trended further north with the Wed storm and brings the potential for a few inches of snow across a good portion of SNE. And it continues to paint a frigid although largely stormless scenario for next week. A storm does develop around the SE edge of the polar vortex on 1/23 but is too far out to sea to affect us, at least for now…..

    1. Something to watch. The front offshore Tuesday/Wednesday will represent the rope with the person on the end snapping it and the little waves moving up along it. Does the Wed one come a bit closer and develop just enough to throw a shield of snow into southeastern New England? GFS says yes. Let’s see if any other guidance comes on board during the next 24 hours. I did mention above that it needed to be watched, in case.

    2. Would this Wednesday feature have a NE wind ?? 🙂 With extreme cold not entrenched yet, I think I know what the precip type might be in Marshfield.

  23. Buffalo, NY at 37F, Watertown, NY at 41F and Albany still has a south wind. Its going to be a slow process getting this first round of moderating chill in here, especially if the jet stream flow is parallel enough to the coastline to introduce a little precip threat in a day or two.

    1. Agreed, Tom. I had some hope a couple of days ago, I am clinging desperately to hope at this point. But, I am just now seeing winter return in earnest. Short waves of cold (very short), yes. Real cold outbreaks, no. Snow? Very little.

  24. Not buying the cold outbreak scenario yet. In fact, I’ve already noticed the weather sites upping the temps this weekend from yesterday’s forecast. There are changes in the forecasts in Western Europe (on virtually sites I follow) where the more or less stationary high will strengthen and keep things cold there. Two days ago (and even yesterday) the thought was the high would retreat. That looks less likely. In that case, I don’t see our weather reverting to winter, notwithstanding an occasional short wave of cold. We need a blocking pattern to establish itself, and that does not look likely.

    1. Well there is a chance for snow tomorrow I guess, maybe a couple inches north. That sounds like winter too me.

      1. John, while there might be a little snow in the interior, there will not be any snow in the Boston area tomorrow or Wednesday, at least nothing that sticks. It will not feel like winter until later this week and even then I see the temperatures reverting to the low 40s by Saturday and Sunday. That’s not January winter, in my book, especially after experiencing at least 10 days of `thaw.’

        1. Thanks. What is your outlook for remainder of this month day till March 17th. Your saying little snow for winter. What would you guess for a number, just curious. I very much enjoy your posts.

  25. By the way, someone, was it Matt, predicted all the games correctly so far? Did I see that? That’s impressive. My record is 6 out of 8, which is not bad, but not perfect. Unfortunately, I do not see the Patriots advancing this year. I will root for them, but they’re up against a tough team wanting revenge. I see the Ravens by a touchdown. SF should prevail easily over Atlanta, and also in the Superbowl against Baltimore.

    1. Well since my only prediction (Denver/Baltimore) was wrong I will agree. Baltimore wins 😉 But they do have two not whole key defense players. And it also depends on not only who brings their A game but how the officiating goes. There were several questionable calls yesterday

        1. I also worry about Pollard. He has a bad history of injuring Pats players (well two – but I don’t like him one bit)

  26. 38 in LA this morning and 52 here. JR said snow good part of the day Wednesday. Maybe will have to shovel but he said not significant 1-3. We shall see

  27. Thanks, TK for the great discussion!

    Mild but damp morning. Actually hearing some birds singing. Also, it looks like a good part of the UK – England, anyway getting a lot of snow.

    1. I stuck my head outside the other morning and thought it sounded like spring with the birds all chirping 🙂

      1. Yes it did. Went to bed, it was 54. Woke up, it was 54.
        Drove to work and it was 55. It did smell like Spring.
        😀

        1. I think that is in part due to the mud 😉 I have to say that calling fog a snow eater is an understatement IMHO 😉 I have never seen snow disappear as quickly. The only conditions I do not like are mud. I think it’s because we spent too many years wading into a 5 inch mud filled paddock to get a horse who had spent the day rolling in mud and now needed it brushed off of his coat and cleaned out of his hoofs. And that’s just the fun part 🙂

  28. Not sure what your looking at Josh but Jr is calling for a winter storm Wednesday. He said some towns could have a plowable 3-5 by end of the day. Did he say plowable 3-5, LOL. I would like you’re thoughts on this Josh since you just said no accumulation for Boston on Wednesday. Thanks.

    1. The End Is Near

      Posted by Jeremy Reiner

      This is it folks. After today, it might be a long time before we see temps reach the mid 40s let alone the mid 50s! Our pattern is about to flip back to winter and it may lock in for a few weeks—shocking—winter behaving like…..winter.

      Getting back into the groove is will result in some weather—clouds and fog (even a sprinkle for some of you before 7am) for much of the day but sunshine will begin to develop this afternoon. All in all, a great day by January standards! Skies will continue to clear out this evening allowing colder air to filter in late tonight. The word colder is relative here, as most towns settle into the 20s by early Tuesday morning.

      Tomorrow is back to reality–sort of–with daytime temps in the 30s & low 40s under a mostly sunny sky. A few clouds will photo-bomb your sky by late day. Those clouds are tied to a tiny winter storm set to arrive by midweek.

      Yup, that;s right, a winter storm is in here on Wednesday. It’s not big but it will snarl up traffic throughout the day with a light but steady snow for several hours. Right now, most towns will pick up an inch (possibly 2″) by late afternoon but some of our models are suggesting this could be a plowable snow by late day (3-5″). More on this later this morning.

      Enjoy your Monday!

      ~JR

      Read more: http://www1.whdh.com/weather/blog/posts/BO149528/#ixzz2HxKXJyCu

    2. TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY… LEFT ENTRANCE OF DEPARTING 190 KNOT UPPER
      JET SUPPORTS WAVE ALONG STALLED FRONT TO OUR SOUTH. THE 00Z
      ECMWF/GFS/GGEM ARE MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH BRINGING MEASUREABLE PCPN
      INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND…AND ALL THE WAY TO NH. NOT SURE ABOUT
      THAT NORTHWARD AN EXTENT…BUT WE WILL MOVE POPS NORTH WITH CHANCE
      VALUES ALONG/SOUTH OF A BOSTON-SPRINGFIELD LINE AND LIKELY POPS
      ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. LATER FORECASTS MAY INCREASE THESE POPS IF
      LATER MODEL RUNS MAINTAIN QPF INTO NH. POPS PEAK IN THE MORNING AND
      THEN DIMINISH BY AFTERNOON.

    3. He also gave numbers, John, which gives it a frame of reference. He also called 1-3 a minor event every time I heard him between 6:15 and 7:00 am and then again at 7:25.

  31. 12Z NAM running. Will post its snowfall map when it gets far enough out.
    This kind of snuck up? No? I certainly didn’t expect it. I was in such a No
    Snow zone, I wouldn’t see it if it hit me in the face. 😀

    1. I do remember someone posting a map last week for a storm on the 16th. Was this the “alisonarod” storm? I think we have all been lulled to sleep with no snow for a while and not believing in the chances of snow, bc quite frankly, we have had no reason to think otherwise 🙂 I do think the wed event will have precip type issues in and south of boston.

        1. I did mention a storm but I can’t take the credit for this one even if it came to fruition. My storm was beyond the 1/19-1/21 period. It’s amazing how a storm just pops up out of nowhere. I never saw this potential coming.

    1. Winter is def not over, and while we may get cold around here for a while, i dont think we see any major snows either. A few of these moisture starved 1-3, 2-4″ small events riding along the arctic front with no southern stream interaction to juice them up. I wouldnt rule out one of these blowing up as it hits the coast but if that happens it may be too far south.

    1. Finally a bare ground here in Westwood. I like when all the old snow melts just before a new fresh layer of snow arrives. Perhaps Wed?

  34. This storm did not really sneak up – the models had it for several days last week, though it looked like more of a rain or mix event if anything. Last few days, the models slid the storm harmlessly south, but now are trending back north and colder. Never say never – it’s January and we live in New England!

  35. Accuweather needs to update. They still have sunny and 40 for Wednesday and not even a flake. I suspect that will change.

    2. That’s the NAM. The other models are more robust. Let’s see what future runs snow. Certainly not a blockbuster no matter what however. It’s the difference between an inch and perhaps a few to several inches of snow.

      1. Exactly. Very unreliable. And yes, I have been forecasting a coastal low in or around MLK for a while now. I’ll be dead wrong but potential is there. Just need interaction between the northern and southern streams.

  39. The only problem with any event this week is this …..

    If the flow can be parallel enough to the east coast to bring precip into the region, then the same SW to NE flow aloft isnt going to give a great push of cold air into the region and thus ……. if its near 30F ahead of the precip and then a light NE wind kicks in off of the 45F ocean, the coast will get an extremely wet snow or rain/snow mix or even plain ole rain.

    I dont know, I see low 40s tomorrow and Wed, some type of 30s the rest of the week and maybe a 40F again next weekend (Sat or Sunday) ahead of the arctic front.

    Watch that big arctic push next week get sent a little more west into the central US as the NAO trends a bit closer to neutral from positive, which is seen on the EURO forecasted NAO values. And of course, if arctic cold plunges down into the central US, guess what comes north in response along the east coast.

  40. Regarding the Wed event, notice both GFS and NAM have heavier precip totals (>0.5″ melted) just south of the South Coast as well. Any further trend north (and it wouldn’t take much) and we could have another little “surprise” event like our 12/29 storm. A few areas in CT, RI, SE MA with 5″ or 6″ is not out of the realm of possibilities.

    2. Actual accumulation might be hard to come by with marginal temps as we saw in the last storm. I remember I had snow falling moderaterly for 3+ hours and maybe 1/2” accumulation during the period, if that

      1. Right now JR is just covering his bases…he’s more or less saying a coating to half a foot…which means he has no idea. 🙂

        1. I think you are right. He never mentioned more than 1-3 on air and called that amount fairly insignificant. When he or any of them put it in writing on a blog they have to cover bases

      2. BZ not nearly as bullish on it. Introduced the possibility of heavier bursts of snow and/or rain. Mostly rain south of Boston though.

        1. Warm ground temps do not favor more than an inch or two at best. Temps have consistently been in the 40’s and 50s.

  41. The 12z gfs looks to push a big piece of precip into our area for wednesday. I used the wundermap so don’t have the best read. Temps I think are to warm…

    1. Clearly GFS more robust than the NAM. I’d side with the GFS/EURO blend over the NAM since we’re outside of 24-36 hours. However, the warm ground temps have me concerned for appreciable snow accumulations.

  44. Look at this 12Z GFS 500MB chart at 72 hours:

    http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/gfs/12/gfs_namer_072_500_vort_ht.gif

    Then at 84 hours:

    http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/gfs/12/gfs_namer_072_500_vort_ht.gif

    Then at 96 Hours:

    http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/gfs/12/gfs_namer_096_500_vort_ht.gif

    Then finally at 102 Hours:

    http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/gfs/12/gfs_namer_102_500_vort_ht.gif

    According to the 12Z GFS, the PV sucks the life out of any “potential” storm
    threat. It trashes and Southern Stream energy. 😀

  46. I am very confident we will not get snow in Boston or along the coast with this next event. It will be too warm for accumulating snow. The ocean is too warm to support snow at the coast. With the NE wind, that’ll throw a wrench into things. The interior could see some snow, but not much.

    I am also not anticipating an Arctic push next week, at least not the one some of the US-based weather sites are suggesting. Short waves of cold, yes. Nothing sustained. 40s this weekend are very possible in the Boston area. And, I think 40s will return, contrary to what Jeremy Reiner said, after a few days of seasonable cold with perhaps a few days of below normal temps (can you believe it, as Joe Castigione likes to say).

  49. Another in the FWIW department.

    For the Wednesday event, 0Z Euro has minimal precip in our area
    and on the snowfall map, has virtually nothing near us. Only snow indicated
    was for far SW SNE???

    We’ll have to wait for the 12Z run for updated info on that. 😀

        1. What MLK event? 😀

          Right now, it looks as if the PV trashes any chance
          of that storm development, or at the very least any
          chance of it turning up the coast.

            1. I’m saying that based on the current guidance, Yes, kiss it good-bye. We’ll see IF anything changes with future guidance.

              Right now it just looks like the Polar Vortex is going to shunt anything off to the South.

              “Perhaps” the PV will wobble to the West and allow for some phasing and something to happen.

              I don’t think so, but it is still a ways off so things could change.

  50. I have a question: what is all the seeming emotion tied up in winter weather forecasts / snow about? That has always fascinated me. The annual battle between snow lovers v snow haters…?

    1. not really about snow lovers vs haters. It’s more about believing in
      a storm or not. And after that, the rain/snow line, Boundary layer issues,
      accumulations or lack thereof. etc. etc. etc. A lot of enthusiasm here.
      😀 😀

    2. It is a good question. I don’t hate snow…I live here and always have but I would be MORE happy without it than with it. This is mostly for the selfish reasons of (1) I have a lot to clean after a storm, (2) I hate how it affects work, and (3) I have two kids in school and it potentially messes up schedules (see #2)…HAHA. In the end, it’s winter and inevitable. You won’t hear me bashing snow on here, but I not dissapointed if we have a miss.

    3. Wow – that’s a really good question and I’m having trouble coming up with an answer.

      As far as liking snow, for me it goes hand in hand with liking any weather event. As an added bonus, to me, snow simply makes the world beautiful.

      As far as the ahhh-hemmm slight “battle,” I wonder if it’s because there is a longer time to track these systems than there is a thunderstorm in summer. Same happened with Sandy. The models were inconsistent, making them difficult to predict. At one point during the post-Christmas storm someone made me laugh saying it had gotten a bit testy. Now I say this with absolutely no intent of an insult and just because it hit me as hugely funny at the time but I wondered if testy is short for testosterone. Should I duck now 🙂 Or am I safe knowing that you all get that I simply saw an odd play on words that struck me funny 😳

      1. And the other positives are we are in the house (hopefully) with family as we watch the event unfold. Also, snow brings back some of my very best memories – as I said yesterday about the blizzard of 1978 – but it stretches well before and well after that storm.

  52. M.L. – I think for me anyways, its the kid in me that snow brings out. As a kid growing up I would get so excited for snow and how much we would get and all that. Granted, now that im older and have to drive in it, shovel (although i used to LOVE to shovel as a kid, i would get mad when i heard the snowblower going cuz i wanted to shovel), and get to and from work in it, I still get excited by the possibility of snow and that far outweighs the hardships that come along with it, to me anyways

  53. Hadi, you may be right about the cold. However, I’m not convinced. We’ve been down this road before. I feel like the models have not handled things well thus far this winter. What I am seeing 5-10 days out is a colder Northern New England (good for ski country; really good, even if they don’t get snow at least they can make it). But, I’m seeing a rather dramatic split between the weather SNE and NNE gets over the coming weeks. There is almost always a temperature difference, obviously. But, this year with the waves of colder air we may see places like Burlington, Vt. be 15-20 degrees colder than Boston, and Presque Isle 25-35 degrees colder.

    1. Go Pats, indeed! Love Brady’s competitiveness. After all that he’s won, he still has such fire and drive. Also love the play-calling by the coaching staff. Worry, however, about Baltimore. Don’t like the Ravens at all, but respect them, especially in the playoffs.

      1. Agreed. I was more comfortable with the Broncos than the Ravens. However, unlike when they usually meet, this will be a blowout for the Pats. Now we just need to get through a long week of non-stop “Ray Lewis is the best person on Earth” footage. I’ve already seen his yelling and huddle speeches a few times since the Pats won last night.

    1. Was able to do so. Nice map. Thanks

      btw, 12Z Euro most Unimpressive snow totals for Wednesday event.

      1. looks like about 2-4 maybe a tad more but hard to read exact precip amounts. Seems overdone but who knows.

  61. Feels and looks like mid to late march, it’s light out till 5 o’clock now!! Enjoy the day everyone 🙂

    1. Totally. Took a walk at lunch and the sun was warm enough I had to take my jacket off. Reminds me of the 4/1 storm when it was in the 60’s one day then a blizzard the next. 🙂

    1. This was Tweeted by BB at 9:15 this morning:

      We get slammed by harsh arctic chill next week. It may be introduced by a developing snowstorm passing through next Tuesday!

  67. Old salty this is probably the one I was talking about. You seem to be giving nothing a chance, how come.

    2. Well, there is certainly time. So far all guidance keep it OTS, and most especially the Euro. The Canadian and GFS have it the closest. It “could” change. Worthy
      of watching, that’s for sure. 😀

      2. I have not been able to verify either, nor has New England Weather Works come out with any new data on it.

    1. Thanks again – I’m not sure what they mean by mid-coast. I think mid-coast maine but could it be mid-coast US? Will have to see what else comes out. If hundreds are reporting it, I’m surprised it isn’t reported more thoroughly

    2. It works – thank you – am sending along to friend who has a home in Kennebunkport. I know she’s been concerned about the increased activity. Seems a bit concerning to me also.

  73. Sunny and 61 when I just went out to get lunch in Quincy. Why couldn’t this have been over the weekend!

    1. I’m thinking less than 2 inches and some less than an inch which means the plows and sanders will be out in full force 🙂

      1. I have plows up and down my street all night long after the snow is plowed…sparking up the plows and moving nothing. Drives me nuts because it’s really loud when the plows are just scraping the pavement.

        1. I understand safety but they need money, when i was a kid they would never plow an inch or 2, now I’ve seen plows in full force for a three quarters of an inch of heavy wet snow and it was going to be in the 40’s and we all know I hate salt,, I don’t even like adding salt on my food 🙂

          1. I get that they need money but I don’t want to pay for someone swiping my side street when it is bare three and four times. And I don’t believe it is anything new. I remember the series of storms we had in 1969 and the trick was to keep the plow up so you’d have to go back more times. Belmont and many surrouding towns eventually had to have a police officer ride in each plow.

            Framingham doesn’t plow when it’s a couple of inches but when it is more they overplow.

        2. So if I was the boss I would tell my guys it appears we have just a sanding snow event, and about an hr before it starts throw the sand down and it probably won’t even accumulate where u sanded and then send them home to spend time with there families

  75. A high of 61.9 degrees and its now 58.8,, I do believe we have a good shot of some very cold temps and a snow event early to mid next week, yes it’s 6 days out but seeing a few different models I feel rather confident for what it’s worth, also neww has nothing on this site plus is the input going into the models seem to be off alot more than before? Anyways we have no snow here in wrentham, not even piles of snow either, have a good day 🙂

  77. Are Saturday and Sunday now going to be 40F or better, as a 995mb low heads over Toronto/Buffalo area and our area is in a 2 day window of increasing w-sw flow ?

    This is the point I think Joshua brings up above and I agree with him. The extreme cold push is always 7 to 10 days away and then as you get closer and closer, it gets adjusted or its not as cold. For example, 3 or 4 days ago, wasnt this coming weekend supposed to be very cold. And now that its entering that middle time period of about 5 days away, doesnt look very cold or even cold at all.

  78. Someone had posted this link of webcames in the fall for foliage. Some of them are still active, although you’ll have to pay attention to the timestamp on them as some arent current. The ones that are current, looks like the recent warm spell has eaten away at some of the snowpack, esp in parts of NH and lower elevations of VT

    http://jeff-foliage.com/new-england-webcam-page/

  79. Tom I think you can look and see that 1 or 2 days might not be as cold as we wobble in and out of it, but clearly there is an indication that we are getting much colder. Just bc 1 day here or there is not that cold doesn’t mean the pattern isn’t colder.

  81. 18Z NAM is in.

    Here is the snowfall Map for the Wednesday blockbuster. (it is the 84 hour total, which obviously includes that whole event) 😀

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2013011418&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=084

    Please note the snowfall down south. That’s over a FOOT in Missouri!

    Now here is the 500MB chart:

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conusncep.php?run=2013011418&var=VRTHGTGRD_500mb&hour=084

    And surface to go with it:

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conusncep.php?run=2013011418&var=PCPPRSTMP_850mb&hour=084

    Can this thing get cranking and will the PV leave it alone? OR will it get dashed to bits, obliterated by the PV or get Shunted OTS well to our South? That is the question.

  82. Tom is right. And I have to disagree with those who say we are going to be in the Arctic zone next week (for a prolonged period). To say the pattern will be colder (than it is now or has been the past 10 days) is almost akin to a tautology. It’s almost impossible not to be colder, at least in January!

    Unfortunately for those of us who love winter, I don’t see it coming, at least not in any kind of concerted way. I think I may have mentioned this yesterday, but I see the temps this weekend easily making it to 40 or higher. And yes, I see the same pattern reasserting itself the following week. The dip of colder air will come, but it will likely be very short-lived and followed by above normal temperatures that do not support snow or ice.

    I may be wrong, and I hope I am, but I think when we wake up a couple of days from now and check the 10-day forecasts we’ll once again see 40 in the long-range. Different story only a few hundred miles north of us. That part of this winter’s puzzle is definitely different from last year’s. While far Northern Maine actually got quite a bit of snow last winter (places like Caribou), they did not experience much prolonged cold at all. That is different this year. There is more real cold to our north. It’s just not coming down to greet us.

    1. I’m not looking for the serious cold to arrive until next week. 30-40 easily this weekend upcoming. No surprise in the eyes of this forecaster.

      1. You’re spot on as the Brits say. Your 5-7 day forecasts are really good, TK. I don’t think anyone should hold you accountable for what happens after that. This said, I do not think that there will be a true Arctic invasion next week, at least nothing out of the ordinary or long-lived. That’s my only point of difference with you. It’s based on an historical pattern in which cold waves have been forecasted 10 days hence, only to evaporate or only come in small chunks.

        1. Like last year when the models kept showing some cold. It’s year it is just with the much colder air then just cold at all. I agree with you Joshua.

  83. Really nice out – hard to believe it’s going to snow Weds. But that’s New England! A lot of snow has melted in Sudbury. The temp. now in Sudbury is 51 degrees. The high in Sudbury today was 59 degrees. Looked like some Rhododendron are trying to bloom; their buds are trying to open.

  84. I really dislike the cold and hope the artic air never gets here. I’m perfectly happy with 30’s and 40’s with a few snow storms mixed in. Typically when an artic air mass sets in, it shunts the storms further offshore. I’m in the group that believes it will become much colder (relatively speaking) but not frigid enough to steer storms OTC. I still believe that a snowstorm is not out of the question beyond 1/19 of next week.

    It would be nice to receive 2-4 inches of snow as forecasted for my area on Wed. However, I feel ground temps will not allow for that kind of accumulation.

    1. It hasn’t been that warm for that long, and there was snow on the ground for a while before it. The ground will chill down very fast. Accumulation will not be a problem. 🙂

  85. Sorry I’m a bit late to the party. Packed my Monday full of things to do!

    I will be adding snow to the Wed forecast. Coating to 3 inches. Will break it down in a while. Hope to have an update posted by early evening!

  86. Thanks TK, how about some thoughts on the cold. We clearly have a blog battle on whether it sticks around or not.

    1. It’s hanging around for a while…

      This is the pattern I thought was coming 2 weeks earlier. If December 1989 was as persistent as a cold pattern can be for a month, and is a 10 on the scale from 1 to 10, then I believe this upcoming pattern will be an 8.

        1. Yes and no.

          Yes … Not much southern stream energy.

          No … Northern stream energy can always sharpen up the trough briefly, but these are usually progressive systems.

  87. I also never thought the cold gets here until next week, some cold shots this week but the real stuff next week.

    1. I agree with that. I dont think many bloggers here thought that. However, the models ….. Maybe a few days back, didnt the GFS, even the EURO have it fairly cold here all of MLK Jr. weekend ?

      1. cold shots but not sticking around for a long period. I posted the other day that next week is when the cold really holds.

    1. I can’t open map. How much does it show for west of Boston outside of 128? I’m curious. I live in Westwood.

  89. It’s not a very detailed map…basically most of the state in a very general 1-4″ with dustings along the coast and north central MA.

    1. Coast as in coast line? Or up through 128? I feel just a few miles outside the city will see all snow.

    2. Barry Burbank
      ‏@BarryWBZ
      Presently, amounts of 1-4″ of snow projected for Wednesday with the least closer to the coast.

          1. That’s quite the range, 1-4″. Four inches could be considered a marginal moderate snowstorm for some.

            1. Yeah not a fan of this range…the delta is too big. Guessing they aren’t comfortable with their handle on it yet. I’m not…I’m not convinced this will materialize as they are thinking now (this is based solely on a feeling).

  90. WOAAAAAAAAA!!!!!!!!!! 18Z GFS has new wrinkle for
    Wednesday. Waiting for a few more hours to come out, but it has >6 inches
    N&W and virtually nothing S&E. Will post snow map shortly.

          1. I do not feel the rain/snow line will be that far north and west. If you take a blend of the NAM and the 18z GFS which often has initialization issues, the bullish amounts of snow would be right over boston and to the west and southwest with the exception for the immediate city. I see no evidence that this storm becomes that amplified to track the 850 line that far north and west.

            1. A blend 😀

              You’re sounding like the NWS. 😀

              You could be 100% correct.

              I’m simply sharing some new data.

              We’ll certainly know more with the 0Z runs.

                1. He knows. 🙂

                  I think of O.S. as the difax machine that would print out all the maps in the weather office I used to work in. We always waited…

                  Yes, O.S., that’s a compliment. 🙂

    1. I know it’s the 18Z GFS and all that goes with that, but if this run is onto
      anything, there will be ZERO snow anywhere along the coast or even inland
      in SNE. Have to be North of the Pike for any at all.

      1. The immediate Boston area and along the shoreline sees little to no snow in any scenerio. However, the 850 line does not progress that far north and west. I do not believe the storm becomes that amplified. Take a blend of the GFS/NAM and you have a few inches in interior southern new england.

    2. Yes, interior will get some snow (few inches with locally a few spots with more) and Boston and coastline will wind up with nothing. That’s my guess.

      1. If the 18Z is correct, then it is not only boundary layer issues, but
        it is a warm layer aloft (in the vicinity of 5,000 feet or so). That
        spells rain and not snow in Southern areas.

        1. Not buying it at all. 24 hours ago the storm was OTC and now the GFS brings it too far north. Models very inconsistent. Take a blend of the GFS/NAM and that is what we get most likely. Boundary layer will be the only issue along the immediate coast. A few miles away from the coast sees all snow.

        2. You’re very good with the maps. I’m beginning to understand them. My interpretation of the 18Z is similar to yours, but I’ll defer to you for a proper interpretation.

          1. John,

            I believe my interpretation to be correct.
            The problem is, the 18Z and 06Z runs do not get initialized with as much data, therefore they are more suspect than the 12Z and 0Z runs which are initialized with complete data.

            However, it still shows something different.

            It needs to be watched.

            This little event has gone from OTS to moving too far North.

            Know this. If the 0Z GFS has it like the 18Z, then kiss the snow good-bye.

            If the NAM is not on board by the 0Z run, then we have a model battle going on. 😀 😀 😀

            1. Your good. I doubt Boston sticks. Harvey thinks rain too snow no sticking. Todd gutner boston inch or less. Harvey mentioned the warmth.

              1. For the immediate city of Boston that is. A couple of miles inland sees all accumulating snow. Similar rain/snow set up as the last winterstorm we received a few weeks back. Just inland, receives a couple-few inches while the coast wonders what all the fuss is about.

  92. From Channel 7…

    “Wednesday: Cloudy with a bit of light snow and rain moving in. Best chance for an inch or two of snow is west of Boston, especially NW RI, CT and Worcester County. Mid 30s.”

    1. That is from the morning package on the WHDH site. CL is calling for 1-3 of snow widespread accept for the immediate shoreline and across southeast MA, Cape and Islands. The rain/snow line sets up quite similarly to where it set up during our last snowstorm (rainstorm for others).

  93. From Chris Lambert Channel 7 regarding PATS forecast:

    “…upper 20s for kickoff, and then cooling off even more for the victory ride home from the game.”

  94. NOAA weather from my 2 meter ham radio from the Worcester station (actually in Paxton), 162.555 had a very clear and concise forecast for Weds. for Central MA. Snow. Actually, they say a mix of snow/rain along south coast. But no mention of accumulation.

  96. Boston will not get more than a coating of snow Tue/night Wed ,, Logan may see nothing than rain mixed with snow will c

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