Weekend Update

211 Comments

9:21AM

Lots going on in the coming days! Let’s break it down then follow it with an updated detailed forecast for eastern MA, southern NH, and RI…

Saturday / Sunday … Warm front pushes through the region first thing Saturday putting the region in a slice of mild but windy weather into Sunday until an arctic cold front arrives from the west and introduces the coldest air of the season so far. However, this air will not plunge in all at once, but we will see the temperature fall off steadily later in the day after a mild early and middle part of the day. Still not sure if we see any rain/snow showers with the front and a small trough coming along right behind it, but I will toss them into the forecast just in case.

Monday / Tuesday … As the arctic air becomes established, a southward extension of the Polar Vortex (ask me if you missed the definition of the PV previously) will kick off a storm just south to southeast of New England. An inverted trough, or extension of elongated low pressure northwest of the low center, will create instability and this should be enough to get snow to develop over the region Monday night into Tuesday. Though not expected to become a major snowstorm, accumulation is likely, and may be enhanced by onshore winds in many coastal areas.

Wednesday / Thursday … The coldest air mass many of us have seen in 2 years will be here as the arctic comes for a visit (in modified form of course, but still quite cold for southern New England).

End of week … Uncertain about this, but watching the potential for a winter storm. Just simply too early to be sure how this will play out. Plenty of time to chase this potential down.

Forecast details …

TODAY: Variably cloudy. Highs 43-48. Wind SW 15-25 MPH gusting over 30 MPH.

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 33-38. Wind SW 10-20 MPH gusting over 25 MPH.

SUNDAY: Variably cloudy through early afternoon with a slight chance of rain showers. Partly cloudy to mostly sunny remainder of day with a very slight chance of snow showers. Highs 42-47 by midday then falling into the 30s. Wind SW 15-30 MPH shifting to W.

MONDAY: Partly to mostly cloudy. Snow showers especially later afternoon and night. Low 15. High 27.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Snow or snow showers likely especially during the morning. Low 12. High 22.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 1. High 16.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 0. High 20.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of snow. Low 10. High 26.

211 thoughts on “Weekend Update”

  1. It is my common practice not to post snow amounts on my forecast too early, and I did not post them above, but here I will say that if the Monday / Tuesday setup goes the way it looks, widespread 2-4 inches of fluff would be easy to get with ocean enhanced areas maybe seeing something like 4-6 inches. Of course these will probably need adjusting as we get closer. Keep in mind there is a significant potential for higher amounts than that even without a direct hit from a storm due to the nature of the combination of inverted troughs, ocean enhancement, and very cold air…

        1. Inverted trough + the NAM’s tendency to overdo it a bit. Still may end up with significant snow in some areas. Have a great day O.S.!

              1. Could be a lucky week for me WeatherWiz. For weeks now I’ve been claiming a coastal winterstorm for us for 1/21 time period give or take a few days. With a little luck, I could have two alisonarod storms in one week.

                2. I’m not THAT good Acemaster but will take credit when due. I had a feeling that the PV colliding with the relatively warm air mass that was in place would spawn at least one coastal storm for us. We may end up with nothing but I knew there would at least be something to talk about despite TK seeing it as cold and dry;)

  3. Temp up to 38, 24 dp, clouds have moved in and wind is picking up with a 21 mph Gust a few minutes ago. Hopefully you and John were spot on re MLK storm, alisonarod. It’d be nice to follow the development of several storms.

  4. Thanks TK !

    Snow day Tuesday ? This would be the 2nd MLK Jr. Holiday that weekend that got extended to 4 days due to weather in the years I’ve been teaching.

    However, the last one was not due to snow, it was due to bitter cold. I want to say it was in the 2004 to 2006 time frame, it was the Friday leading into the weekend and it was -5F or so with howling winds and struggled to get above 0F that day.

    1. Wow! That would be a dream come true. Certainly while the NAM is too robust, it is definitely on to something. Looks like eastern parts could be in for a significan snowfall if trends continue. Gotta love the inverted trough combined with artic cold blowing across a warm ocean. Some places down across cape ann and especially southeast MA (closer to the storm) could see higher than expected totals.

      1. Well Vicki…the storm still is going too far OTS to directly impact us. We will be feeling the indirect impacts due to an inverted trough that will set up. The pressure will drop from north to south and north easterly artic winds blowing over the warm atlantic will result in snow for eastern sections. It is very difficult to forecast such a set up and many locations may end up with more snow than forecasted. It’s a nowcasting sitution typically.

        1. I think TK should explain to us what an inverted trough is and how it can dump many inches of snow in a very small area. Also, TK, would you agree that the coastal low will be too far away to directly impact us and that the norlun-like trough is what will be responsible for the snow?

  7. HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
    635 AM EST SAT JAN 19 2013

    CTZ002>004-MAZ002>021-026-NHZ011-012-015-RIZ001>007-201145-
    HARTFORD CT-TOLLAND CT-WINDHAM CT-WESTERN FRANKLIN MA-
    EASTERN FRANKLIN MA-NORTHERN WORCESTER MA-CENTRAL MIDDLESEX MA-
    WESTERN ESSEX MA-EASTERN ESSEX MA-WESTERN HAMPSHIRE MA-
    WESTERN HAMPDEN MA-EASTERN HAMPSHIRE MA-EASTERN HAMPDEN MA-
    SOUTHERN WORCESTER MA-WESTERN NORFOLK MA-SOUTHEAST MIDDLESEX MA-
    SUFFOLK MA-EASTERN NORFOLK MA-NORTHERN BRISTOL MA-
    WESTERN PLYMOUTH MA-EASTERN PLYMOUTH MA-SOUTHERN BRISTOL MA-
    SOUTHERN PLYMOUTH MA-NORTHERN MIDDLESEX MA-CHESHIRE NH-
    EASTERN HILLSBOROUGH NH-WESTERN AND CENTRAL HILLSBOROUGH NH-
    NORTHWEST PROVIDENCE RI-SOUTHEAST PROVIDENCE RI-WESTERN KENT RI-
    EASTERN KENT RI-BRISTOL RI-WASHINGTON RI-NEWPORT RI-
    635 AM EST SAT JAN 19 2013

    THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN
    CONNECTICUT…CENTRAL MASSACHUSETTS…EASTERN
    MASSACHUSETTS…NORTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS…SOUTHEASTERN
    MASSACHUSETTS…WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS…SOUTHERN NEW
    HAMPSHIRE…NORTHERN RHODE ISLAND AND SOUTHERN RHODE ISLAND.

    .DAY ONE…TODAY AND TONIGHT.

    HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

    .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN…SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

    THERE IS A LOW TO MODERATE PROBABILITY THAT A WIND ADVISORY MAY
    BE NEEDED ON SUNDAY.

    INCREASING CONFIDENCE THAT A COASTAL STORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHERN
    NEW ENGLAND MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THERE IS STILL SOME
    UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM. HOWEVER
    APPEARS THAT THERE WILL BE SOME ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL.

    THERE IS A MODERATE PROBABILITY THAT A WIND CHILL ADVISORY MAY BE
    NEEDED TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

    .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT…

    SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

  8. Keep in mind that the NAM is probably overdone, it is not going to take very much melted precipitation to pile up a lot of fluff with a 20+ to 1 snow to water ratio.

    1. Exactly. 0.25 in of melted precip would be almost a half a foot of snow. So even a light snow event with not that much precip could create warning criteria snowfall.

  10. Inverted trough: In layman’s terms, it’s a trough of low pressure usually extending out the back side of the low, or typically the side opposite from the direction of travel. Even though we’re not talking about a solid entity, think of the low pressure area as a blob of silly putty and somebody pulls a piece of it backward, stretching it out. Under this area you have extra lift or instability in the atmosphere, and of course this will produce precipitation, and in this case, snow (and even further in this particular case, fluffy snow because of the very cold air). Of course positioning of the trough and its interaction with other boundaries and topography plays into the outcome as well. These are the kinds of things we try to work out as we get close to the event.

    And yes this is why you can get significant snow without a “big storm” or a really close passing low pressure area. You don’t need the low center near you if you have an extension of it over you.

      1. And rather than dealing with westerlies in a standard trough, we will be contending with an east wind during this inverted trough set up. The resultant east wind off the ocean from such a trough is what enhances the snowfall over eastern sections.

    2. question tk. does this kind of trough usually give a certain area really heivy precipitation and a few miles to the north there could be little or nothing?

  11. And then look at 12 z for Friday-Saturday. Wow that is a lot of moisture. Could be an interesting week. Get the snowblowers ready 🙂

  12. Now is the inverted trough the same as the norlun trough??? I remember back on the 7th of January in 2011 one setup from Danbury to Waterbury CT and a foot happened in just 6-7 hours.

      1. But a norlun trough requires to areas of low pressure systems. It is in between these two areas of low pressures that very heavy snow can set up in one area. I think that is what makes this situation different. There is only one low pressure system that will be traveling OTS. Hence, I do not believe we run into a norlun situation. TK. We need your help again.

      1. The terms are used interchangeably but I think the idea is, Norluns tend to be associated with lows, where as inverted troughs can exist without a closed low.

  14. If your under a norlun trough you now it and its a narrow band of heavy snow. If your outside of that band much less snow.

      1. Very true. Mon/Tues is a localized event. Next weekend’s storm would be on a much higher scale. Looks nasty!

    1. Just the behavior of fluids, which the atmosphere is. I’ve seen norlun troughs in the bath tub as a kid. One of the things that got my fascinated in weather was watching the behavior of the swirls in the water, and especially that tornado thing when the water was draining out. 🙂

      1. Bingo. I have been fascinated by weather since I was a kid too.

        Decades later, I enjoy it even more. As a kid I was always fascinated by inverted leaves before an approaching line of thunderstorms. The winds would pick up and you knew there was a good chance of a weather beat down within 5 to 10 minutes.

        1. We are at daughters and I keep pulling out the phone to see updates here. They are threatening to take the phone away.

    1. Can almost see that trof reflected in the kinks in the isobars extending westward from the low all the way back to the eastern Great Lakes. I think this is on hr. 72.

  25. The Scandinavian high may retreat after all within 2-4 days leading to thaw. We’ll see. That would be a good sign for us, if my inversion theory holds.

    1. Well, looks like a miss on this run anyway. Good news if this were to verify, whatever falls Monday night-Tuesday is going to be on the ground for several days.

      1. Not to mention, the GFS has been most consistent no only with other storms this winter but with regards to this storm as well. Note, that as of two days ago, the storm was a lakes cutter per the EURO. Yesterday, it took the storm a bit further east. This morning, it was a blockbuster and this afternoon’s run it’s weaker and suppressed. I’ll take the EURO with a grain of salt regarding the Friday storm unless I see more consistency like that of the GFS.

  27. Is this formula correct regarding wind chill?

    Wind Chill = Air Temp – Wind Speed

    Didn’t the NWS discard the old wind chill charts some years ago?

    1. It’s a close formula but it’s not that ‘actual’ formula. The formula you provided will give you a rough estimate of what the wind chill factor is. It’s close but not exact. The wind chill factor formula is more complex.

  28. Wind chill factor = 35.74 + 0.6215T – 35.75(V0.16) + 0.4275T(V0.16)

    where:
    V = wind speed (mph)
    T = temperature (F)

  29. Tom as you know way too soon to think anything about next week. I actually think the GFS has been much better as of late vs. euro.

  31. 12Z GFS snow map for Tuesday:

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2013011912&time=48&var=ASNOWI&hour=084

    Hmm Extreme variance here??? GFS certainly not picking up what the NAM is,
    OR expects the trough to be located in a different position???

    12ZNAm snow map already posted above. 😀

    12Z GFS snow map for Friday/Saturday:

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2013011912&time=48&var=ASNOWI&hour=186

    1. hmmmmmmmmmm for the late week event, I wonder why central new england is portrayed to end up with 12+ while the Boston area would receive 6+??

      1. That would be because the model verbatim would be putting down a much wetter snow near Boston with potential mixing.

        1. I figured as such or even the potential for lots of front end snow before changing over to rain up through Boston. That would surprise me.

    2. And I hate to say it OS but it worked out perfectly last time with the mini event we just had, but the most plausible scenario will likely be a blend of the NAM/GFS. The GFS is too conservative and the NAM is too robust.

  32. Thanks Alisonarod for the correct (ugh) formula. It felt like I was back in high school, lol. 🙂 If my formula comes out a few degrees either way of the exact temp then that’s fine with me. I seem to remember Todd Gross not long before his departure from Ch.7 showing that formula for us viewers which is probably good enough for the average person. I was outside earlier and I still needed to bundle up minus the sweater underneath my heavy coat in spite of temps closing in on 50.

    2. Philip were you a weather watcher for Todd. And if so did you go to the weather watcher get together he had in natick?

  33. snow cover
    1bare ground
    2 bare with patches less than 50%
    3 bare spots with 50-70% snow cover
    4 mainly snow covered maybe some bare spots 70-90%
    5 snow covered 90% to 100%
    I am at 4 currently here in Billerica.

    tuesday looks ok with the best chance of snow east of i95. down onto the cape and islants small amount of water put fluff factor and the models are still all over the place and do not know where it will go.
    cold cold cold this up comming week. with a possible storm late friday through saturday. temps tuesday and wednesday might not reach 20 in my area. with lows for the first time in 2 years being around to below zero with wind chills being dangerious
    the game the wind chill will feel like it is around 0

    1. Belichek probably has this factored into his thinking. He should be reading Woods Hill Weather for any weather related competitive edge. 🙂

  35. Just another day of overperforming temps. The TV Mets, even with their morning forecasts were too low. Two of the channels had 45F, the other 44F and Logan has gotten to 49F with most of eastern Mass in the mid-upper 40s.

    One last day of warmth tomorrow and with the high launching pad tomorrow morning, I’ve got to think the temps will outperform expectations yet again.

    1. I like the temp info too and Joshua’s info and all trending/pattern info The models are very interesting and I learn more each time I look at them. But I’m fascinated by numbers and tends.

  39. A comment on the 12z Euro…

    I like the upper air pattern it has for the entire week. It’s been having some issue with timing and placement of surface features which I believe it will work out as we get closer to the late week event. I like a slower timing of this evening right now, rather than a Friday impact. Long way to go yet…

      2. 18z NAM … Overdone on precip, but maybe not by much. If it’s not by much, there’s gonna be a whole lot of fluff falling Tuesday morning somewhere in eastern NH and eastern MA.

        18z GFS … I think somebody dropped it on its head mid-run. Very unstable run. Toss out.

  41. 18z looks terrible for snow on tuesday….Less than a .10 for the coastal areas. But the good news is that its the 18z looking forward to the 00z

    1. It’s ok.

      The snow God’s would never allow us two good storms in a week this year. I’ll trade every droplet of qpf on Tuesday for something bigger on Saturday.

  43. Just arrived home with my new truck. Been a dream for along time, first truck ever. My son keeps repeating how happy he is because my dream came true.

      1. 2013 ford f150 four door echoboost v6 black with chrome package, front bucket seats with grey cloth. Loaded inside. Has a backup camera.

    4. That’s great John….congrats! I am at Oliveira’s and will have a drink and a slice of pizza to celebrate your new purchase.

      1. Oh I hadn’t thought of that. I’m not at oliverias but I am sure I can find a glass of wine to toast to your good fortune also John 😉

        We are planning on oliverias when we are down there for march tho

      2. Thanks, I’m still thinking is it mine. I have waited a long time to be a truck owner. The hardest part seriously is watching the speed. I’ve always had four cylinder so this part is new. Today I felt like I was crawling in the truck, I look my speed and I’m going like 20 over. Going too relay havto watch that. So snow for Tuesday and friday, nice. Enjoy your pizza sue and Vicki the wine.

  44. A-Arod… In reply to your comment from this morning about me seeing it cold and dry.

    Absolutely.

    I may have forecast a cold / dry dominating pattern this winter (even though we didn’t really have that for December and the first half of January). But I did forecast near to below normal snowfall. We were running quite a bit below normal, so it has to snow SOMETIME. 🙂

    We are finally about to see the genuine cold, and I think it only relaxes briefly after the late-week event to slip back in once again. It’s a long term pattern and I see no sign of a return to the dominant SE Ridge for quite a while.

    1. I don’t know what day it is or time it is or where I am. been in and out so many times today. Above post was clearly 18Z runs which may have already been posted. So sorry about that. Still doesn’t look good. 🙁

      1. From our friends at NEWW:

        New England Weather Works
        The Tuesday storm is looking better with each run, the NAM has low pressure forming just south of Long Island, Going to want to pay very close attention here as guidance is suggesting the development of a rather impressive Norlun Trough extending from the Maine Coast to the Massachusetts coast, with the right set up this could bring some hefty snow to eastern sections.

        Once the low moves away we really get cold, bone chilling is the word, the cold air will remain in place as we wind up another impressive coastal storm toward weeks end. Thinking is that as we progress through this week folks calling for winter will get their wish.

        Will have more on this Norlun Trough later today.

  49. I will be mobile for a while. Watched the first period of the B’s – they look good.

    Catching the 2nd and 3rd on my friend’s DVR in a while. I’ll check in from her laptop.

    Go B’s!

  50. Just got back from the grocery store, we r ready for the game,, Go Patriots!! AFC Championship games 63,(85),(96),(01),(03),(04),06,(07),(11),will c what 12 brings,,, Go Patriots!!

    2. Welllllll what’s on the menu. After all the menu is darn near as much fun as the game and I love new ideas 🙂

  51. Really Mike?? Not major? Oh and monday night and into tuesday looks light maybe a few inches…

    Mike Wankum ‏@MetMikeWCVB

    Another chance of snow Fri-Sat. Fairly quick moving so not major but a few models hinting at 3-6″

  54. If an inverted/norlun trough sets up over an area it will be more than that. If I am remember correctly models have a tough time figuring out where one of those will setup.

    1. Actually Hadi I think its about the same as 18z NAM…Not to much of a change but I’m getting nervous this could be a huge bust…I hope not.

  62. Again I did mention this the other day but notice the trend with the storms looking like there ots, than they get us. somthing to watch when the models say no. I am still thinking above for snow this winter. I am also guessing this will be the setup for the rest of winter in my thinking only break the dry cycle. Also going with an early and nice spring.

  63. Hey Vicki…I was not a weather watcher for Todd or anyone else, but I did send e-mails to Todd sometimes with questions or comments. He would always answer almost immediately or the very next day at the latest. 🙂

    There was one time just prior to a snowstorm that I e-mailed Todd AccuWeather’s thoughts on the storm (which had much higher totals than his) and he immediately responded to “never, EVER” send him other mets forecasts! I immediately sent an apology and I was back in his good graces. I e-mailed him a few more times thereafter before he left Ch. 7…not on his own terms of course. 😉

    It is too bad that the WBZ blog has deteriorated so much that their mets no longer respond to questions or even (polite) comments.

    1. Hi Philip. Todd is interesting. I worked with him on the spotter thing. I created and maintained the website. I was sorry how he left but he wasn’t very nice to us after and we just volunteered. I never like when stuff works that way but sure hope it turned out ok for him.

  64. As of this posting, there is still no Discussion from Barry on the WBZ website. On his 6:30? newscast, he did not seem particularly excited about Tuesday. He just said maybe a few snowshowers along the coast and did not say much if anything about Friday and there was a big sun for Saturday with more cold coming thereafter.

    As TK said above…Barry was “conservative” to say the least. 😉

  65. Looking at GFS and I like the set up, coastal development looks closer. I think this storm has a chance to explode with the arctic air meeting over the above average water. Certainly interesting 48 hrs coming up.

  67. Also as TK pointed out the weekend event is much slower timing wise. Also looks very cold ahead of that system so far with the 00z GFS.

  68. I would go right now with a blend of the nam and GFS unless I see the storm getting closer which adds up to around 8-10 locally higher amounts in eastern mass.

  69. All the mets are saying that the friday-saturday storm is progressive and shouldn’t be a major storm. TK can you explain what they are seeing? Do you agree?

  72. Yup..The TV mets are playing real conservative but Wankum just showed a model that gave the coast close to 5inchs for monday night-tuesday.. The ooz gfs for friday storm is now OTS.. Got to love the GFS still got plenty of time to watch.

  73. Cold and dry – kiss em goodbye!

    These storms are looking less and less impressive with each model run. There is still plenty of time for the Late week storm to turn around though. In fact, I’d be more concerned if all the models were showing a hit at 6-7 days out. What they are depicting this far out rarely verifies as shown. I do think the late week storm will be progressive, but it could only take a modest 0.5″ liquid with the brunt of the storm going out to sea to give us a 10″ snowfall with the cold air in place.

    1. Looks progressive now and maybe a little further offshore, but storms this year (and even hurricanes) have sometimes been taking slightly unexpected turns. Sometimes I feel like we are nowcasting a little more when it comes to tracks and amounts.

  74. I am not so sure about that Mark 🙂 Monday night Tuesday will not take much to accumulate a lot of snow.

    For Saturday storm euro shows a benchmark track so that looks good.

  76. Very, very intrigued be what could happen Monday night / Tuesday. This is the chance to make up for the rainy 3/4ths of the storm that happened along the coastline a couple weeks back on that bombing out storm. In general, have been wanting to see the ocean temps go down, now with this setup and the cold air, I want to see those differentials as big as possible.

    50F to 55F is what the NWS is going for today at the coastal plain and I believe it. At 5 am, still in the 40s way back to Buffalo and the infrared satellite makes me think full sun this morning for a while.

  77. This am Joe Joyce called the Monday night situation “tricky.” Said areas along coast could see 6″ but again he said very tough to call.

    There is a Wind Advisory.

  78. Charlie you must know something the rest of us don’t. Bc if you look at the nam and GFS it clearly shows something different.

    1. Yes and lets say there’s a decent snowfall in eastern Mass and at least some snow out to Worcester and up into southern NH. With snowcover, that greatly increases the likelihood of maximizing the coldest potential of the airmass on Wednesday and Thursday.

  80. Agreed Tom. Speaking of temps if we get snow here in eastern mass watch temps drop below zero overnight even in the city.

  84. Where that norlun/inverted trough sets up is the key. Models to me have a tough time in a situation like that. Where it does setup shop several inches of snow and if your outside it very little in the way of snowfall. Right now for the snowlovers in the eastern parts of SNE it looks good. For where I am it looks like a dusting to an inch. I would expect some sort of winter weather alert to be posted later today or early tomorrow morning.

  88. The question to me is not if it is going to snow tomorrow night into Tuesday but how much snow and where is that inverted/norlun trough going to setup shop???

  89. John, congrats on your new truck!

    Weather-wise, it looks like a typical winter pattern probably coming up. Very cold weather then storm; then cold again and another storm. Looks like 2nd storm late nxt. wk./wknd. could be stronger than this Tues. and Weds.

  90. For the first time in the last 4 and 2/3rds of climatalogical winter, winter will arrive and stay for a while. I think a certainty of at least 7 straight days of below or much below daily normal temps are a certainty beginning Monday, along with snow threats that within 5 days of each other have a chance at equalizing or surpassing Logan’s total for the past two winter’s to date. (16 inches). I have dusted off the winter weather hat and have it ready to go for tomorrow ….. Patriots cap today. 🙂

    Here is what the region has endured the last 4 and 2/3rds months of climatalogical winter.

    113 out of 142 days have had above normal temps at Logan and there has been a grand total of 16 inches of snow.

    Welcome back winter !!!

  94. Some current upper midwest temps……

    International Falls, MN : -16F, Duluth, MN : -9F, Minneapolis, MN : 0F

    Chicago (O’Hare) : 17F

  96. Joe Joyce tweet

    @JoeJoyceWBZ: Alberta Clipper to turn into Nor’Lun Trough by Tues across E. MA. Explosive snow growth poss. w/ snow ratios 20-25″ of snow for 1″ Liquid!

    1. There is also a 9 percent chance of Boston getting 12 inches or more of snow on the NWS probability map. Although small the chance is there.

  98. Just looking at the 12z NAM and whats out so far, now the actual synoptic snow from the low itself seems to also be making it further north and west, up to about Boston. Cant wait to see what comes in the next few panels with regards to this convergence zone near the coastline.

  99. 12Z Nam looks to be huge foe SE NH, ME, northeast Mass.

    Even central/eastern mass. will do pretty well given the ratios.

    Someone is going to get over a foot I bet. Let’s see what future runs look like.

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