Don’t Open Your Gifts Early!

780 Comments

6:50PM

You may stand in one of many places about the thought of a big winter storm. Perhaps you love snow, perhaps you hate it, perhaps you wish for it to change to rain, or go out to sea, or maybe just dust the ground gently before moving on to dump upon the maritime provinces of Canada (“They deserve it up there! All they talk about is hockey and curling!”)

As much as I’d love to go into great detail about what I think is going to happen with that potential storm at the end of the week and why, I’m going to be brief about it here, and then work backward to more immediate happenings that I am more confident about.

There are so many computer models to digest, or ignore if you choose, as a meteorologist. I’ll admit I ignore many of them, and at least glance at my favorites, and linger longer on my absolute favorites. But I always look at enough data to at least feel like I’m informed enough to make the best educated guess I can make about any given situation. And this will be no different. But the truth is, even though I realize there is a fairly significant potential for a moderate to major, or perhaps even blockbuster, winter/snow storm on Friday to early Saturday, I just don’t have enough confidence to go into any detail yet. I’ll start to try to work that out tomorrow. Perhaps we’ll be starting to hint at snow accumulations, maybe big numbers, maybe not so big as the potential indicates can happen as of now. Too much can change. These are computers making forecasts. They’re not perfect. They are for use as guidance, and looking at them long enough over a period of years teaches you (and hopefully you remember) not to take anything they say too seriously until you are confident, based largely on experience, that they are painting an accurate picture. Even though one very reliable model has been showing “big storm” for about 3 days now, and did a stellar job forecasting the track of Sandy about a week or more in advance, I am not ready to bite its bait yet. So for this update, the wording will remain general for that period, but keep in mind there is a whole lot of potential with this, and we’ll be sorting that out in the next couple days…

A quiet Thursday will precede whatever event unfolds at week’s end, but before that, we have a complex but weak disturbance moving through the region tonight and Wednesday morning, and it will deposit a small amount of snow across southeastern New England. See below for accumulations.

A peek beyond all the madness into the future indicates a quiet end to the weekend and a warm-up at the start of next week.

For now, here is my latest thinking for southeastern New England’s weather…

TONIGHT: Cloudy. Periods of snow, mainly on the light side, but may be briefly moderate at times especially near the South Coast. Accumulations generally under 1 inch, but a few 1 to 2 inch amounts are possible especially south of Boston and over the South Coast and Cape Cod. Lows 22-27. Wind NE up to but mostly under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy eastern and southern areas through late morning with any lingering snow or snow showers ending, otherwise partly to mostly sunny north and west with more sun south and east in the afternoon. Highs 35-40. Wind N up to 10 MPH in the morning shifting to W and increasing to 10-20 MPH with higher gusts in the afternoon.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows from 10 inland valleys to near 20 immediate coast. Wind NW 10-15 MPH gusting 20-25 MPH through midnight then diminishing.

THURSDAY: Sunshine followed by increasing clouds. Highs 23-28. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Cloudy. Snow develops, except possible mix/rain coast & Cape Cod. Potential for significant winter storm conditions developing late day and night. Lows in the 10s. Highs from the 20s northwest to 30s southeast.

SATURDAY: Clearing. Low 20. High 30.

SUNDAY: Sunny. Low 10. High 35.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. PM rain showers. Low 30. High 45.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Low 35. High 48.

780 thoughts on “Don’t Open Your Gifts Early!”

  2. With the light easterly surface winds today, the column wasnt too dry. The snow developed a bit ago and now its a steady, light snow and starting to accumulate.

  3. Thanks TK. My daughter said its been snowing in Uxbridge literally all day. Same lazy snow we had Sunday. No accumulation. But very pretty

  4. Excellent tk, excellent. This is exactly what you told us not to do on Sunday, don’t get caught up with each and every computer run. I think we will get snow, but to what the potential is now is anybody’s guess. My take on the models this winter is they are not that reliable, that is my take on it looking at it from an amateurs prospective. How you presented this forecast to us, is how a professional tv met three days out should present to the viewing public. All the models being so aggressive this early just has me not quite buying into yet, keyword is yet. Tomorrow will be telling but still two days out. Again I think it snows. I just don’t know to what extent, nobody does.

  6. I rarely take my head out of this blog for weather so was surprised by how many friends already knew of the potential storm. Every one of them also understood it is early and it is also as likely it turns out to be much smaller or even a miss. But every one of them appreciates knowing now what could happen. Good job by our mets I’d say

  7. It’s a tough position being a TV met and even moreso in a major market like Boston. You want to stand by what you believe is right, yet you are up against the pressures of not only competition, but your bosses, and members of the community who will indeed benefit from advanced warning and would rather be prepared and not need, than be unprepared and suddenly need. They will never please everybody, so you just do the best you can. If I were on TV I would argue against posting the model projected accumulation maps more than 48 hours away, and perhaps even 36 hours or less if I could get away with it. I do understand it is FOREcasting, but how much BEFORE you want to CAST your reputation to the wind is a hard decision to make sometimes.

    1. Oddly on the 78 coverage Harvey just said one of the differences today would be the word would get out sooner. People would not be stuck on roads or unprepared. And there was at least 36 hours notice with 78. The majority of people are smart enough to know the possibilities. I’d rather cater to them than those who will complain no matter what the outcome.

      1. You’d hope the general public would be smart enough to heed warnings. Then again, maybe not due to the cry wolf syndrome which brings us back to TK’s comment on pressured forecasters.
        I have total compassion for New England Mets. Their job is never an easy one!!!

  11. I find the radar tonight interesting. An ok shield of snow over SE Mass and that narrow plume of snow coming up over Martha’s Vineyard. A sneak surprise 3 inches somewhere tonight ?

    1. Yes, I was surprised to look out the window and see a very nice
      steady light snow falling. Car tops white and ground whitening up again. 😀

      1. Logan quickly went down from 10 miles to 2 miles (I think) in light snow. I’d say we’re past a thick dusting here.

  14. really excited about this next event. hope the euro is right and nails us with a great snow storm. but the two peices of energy is still off the west coast . Lets see what happens tomorrow when the two pieces of energy gets over land

  15. I enjoyed the Blizzard of ’78 coverage this evening on Chronicle with never before seen footage and personal stories. 🙂

    I was thinking…It would be nice if someday PBS does a documentary on the Blizzard of ’78 as part of its “American Experience” series. If I am not mistaken, there is already a PBS AE about the Great Blizzard of 1888…not totally certain of that though.

    1. I recorded it with the hope that I can watch it during Fri/Sat snowstorm. Since I have satellite, reception is disrupted during a heavy snow or thunderstorm, but I’m able to watch previously recorded shows on the DVR. Will be recording shows over the next few days. Here’s hoping for a satellite disrupting snowstorm 🙂

    1. speaking of crazies, did you see that snowcover map of the king that Bastardi put out through the period?

  18. I have to admit I am skeptical. I guess it’s 2 years of watching storms go south of us and OTS, and the occassional clipper to the north. If we were in the middle of long term storm track pattern, it would be more believeable. The flip side is clear — within the pattern we have been witnessing for 2 years, this storm would be an absolute anomaly. Not trying to be a buzz kill — it sure would be nice to see a mega winter storm verify.

  19. What are the water temps?

    @clamberton7: Late December storm, Boston Harbor water temp was about 47. Boston water temp now 36.1. #7news

    1. No, that temp is inner harbor.
      16 Miles out still 41 or 42. 😀 And that’s where you need to look.

  20. I wish I’d have saved various snow projections I’ve seen the last 2 months based on model runs a few days to many days ahead of storms. Had they all come true, most areas would have nearly received 100 inches of snow so far this season. After all, look at a post above, 34 inches on one projection. 34 !!!!!

      1. For sure. And I think it will be the best precip producer since late December, but nowhere near the QPF projections seen today. I could buy .4 to .7 total melted, something in that order. We’ll see.

  21. Again this storm is way too progressive in my
    opinion to dump those types of numbers. I guess anything is possible it would take 5-6 inches owe hour to get those numbers.

  22. Currently, a nice steady, light snow falling in Marshfield. 1/2 inch, roads covered. I think tonight’s event surprises a bit. Great nowcasting, eh ?

    1. Great photos!

      I have so many photos … Many are in slide format though. I need to do something about that so I can get them posted.

    2. She is lovely OS. What a smile. She just makes you smile right back.

      It sure was an amazing amount of snow

    4. Love the photos OS! They bring back such memories as I was 9 at that time and I have very similar photos with me wearing a very similar snow suit. 🙂

    1. It will probably go the other way, leading to an hour or two of impatient wait time for the 0z GFS, for which I shall be snoozing when it runs.

      1. Then the GFS will tell us something different, followed by the Euro…..blah, blah, blah. Be lucky if we know the “truth” on Friday morning.

      2. Tom I wonder if this will be your 20 inch snow event which was one of your bold weather prediction for 2013.

          1. One of mine was one double digit snowfall total for Boston. It will be interesting to look back in late Decemeber to see how many predictions people made here on the blog happened.

  29. A strong earthquake with a preliminary magnitude of 8.0 struck near the Solomon Islands, sparking a tsunami alert for much of the South Pacific.

    The Pacific Tsunami Warning Center said a tsunami warning is in effect for the Solomon Islands, Vanuatu, Nauru, Papua New Guinea, Tuvalu, New Caledonia, Kosrae, Fiji, Kiribati and Wallis and Futuna. A tsunami watch is in effect for numerous other areas.

    1. it does look more potent but where does it go…..can’t believe I’m going to go through this pain twice tonight.

      1. E-NE on the NAM thats my prediction. Just by looking at the thicknesses, they are flat. I’d think if there was going to be phasing, you’d see a push of cold air southward to the west of the system and a push of warm air northward to the east of the system. Instead, the thicknesses are flat west to east.

  34. TK…When I said that I would love to see a 30-inch snowfall in my lifetime, I meant one for the city of Boston (Logan). It fell just short for the Blizzard of ’78 (27.1″) and the 2003 Presidents’ Day storm (27.5″?). 😀

    Of course, there were areas south of Boston that received 30-36″ Feb. 1978.

  35. While we wait, the radar now has dark blues and even some greens on a west to east line just south of Boston. I’m guessing its snowing moderately or about to be in the Boston area.

  39. Pete in his evening blog said that even if there is no phasing, a good snowstorm is still in the cards.

    The only wild card is the ocean temps still in the low 40s (41F). I would say as long as the storm doesn’t go too far west of the benchmark, most areas should stay mostly snow. Normal ocean temps this time of year should be at or near their lowest (33-37F). Also fortunately a fresh cold air mass will arrive Thursday.

    1. Next question……….why does a surface low that appears to be 200 miles southeast of the benchmark generate such precip ? Northern stream feature strong enough to do it on its own ?

        1. As I ask these questions, I’m trying to learn, not prove any scenarios one way or the other.

          If the low placement (I’m guessing thats what lp was) is incorrect, then should we trust the precip placement ?

          Also, looking at the 500 mb, I think the 2 vort maxes are easily seen in that 72-84 hr timeframe. So, I’m thinking maybe the northern stream vort max is strong enough to do the trick ? (provide the lift in combo with a northeast surface wind fetch, etc) ?????

  41. Weatheman’s Day yesterday; potential mega-snowstorm; an earthquake and a 1 meter tsunami; and it was announced today that the largest prime number ever was discovered by a mathematician from the University of Central Missouri — 17,425,170 digits long. All while I watched the news and drank a very decent glass of Cabernet. And the Bruins play the Habs tomorrow night. You gotta love America.

  43. nam has classic comma look but not till it’s past us.

    ok, onto the GFS

    still some decent snow but I’m greedy and want more!

  45. It’s showing an incorrect LP location IMHO. It will show very different results tomorrow and as we get closer.

  48. Where is the benchmark, ( 50 lat, 50 lon?) and what would be the ideal position for a high pressure for a winter storm to verify?

    Thanks!

  49. OS, those are great photos with your daughter. Those drifts were even higher than I remembered.

    Funny story…My father was on his way home from his second job and discovered that he was walking on top of the hood of a parked car. 😀

  51. Happy GFS watching to all !

    Maybe the NAM’s suggesting the energetic northern stream system is strong enough to create its own decent storm ? I dont know, guessing really.

  54. NAM is pretty much useless outside 48 hrs so please no one should read much into it either way. GFS is way more important coming up.

  55. If anyone happens to step outside take a close look at the snowflakes, some of the nicest I’ve seen in a long time! Have to really look at them close up.

  57. This is the in-between run by the NAM. Probably the run right before it realizes the phasing is taking place a little sooner.

  62. Not sure if anyone noticed, but the 12z Euro had another potent Noreaster next week on Valentine’s Day (aka the HM storm):

    http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/euro/12zeuro850mbTSLPUS216.gif

    Joe Bastardi posted the total snowfall accumulation for the entire Euro run which encompasses both storms, as I believe Hadi mentioned earlier. Check out these totals:

    http://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/298926112833159169/photo/1

    Totals approaching 50″ in portions of NE by end of next week. Insane if it ever verified.

  67. Perfect track but not nearly as strong as the Euro. Northern stream energy comes in a bit late. P-type issues on south coast as well.

  70. Tweet from Todd Gutner a minute ago

    Todd Gutner ‏@ToddWBZ

    00Z GFS hits us hard again…signs continue to point to a big snowstorm.

  72. Not neatly as strong as euro but still 12+ inches got most of SNE. Precip issues seem to be confined to cape and islands.

  73. GFS holding firm.

    Feeling better about this.

    If the King comes in again – I’m in.

    Mark, I’m not sure how low you want that pressure if you’re near the coast. Don’t want too much wind off the water IMHO

      1. I hear you there, I’m in Worcester so bring it on but our friends in Boston here might get cranky with us!

        1. This could very well be the storm where Boston comes in with a higher snow total than either Worcester or Hartford. In fact, that seems a given if the track doesnt shift any closer to the coast.

    1. Briefly… but a mainly snow event for Boston and he even said the South Coast would flip to snow. The GFS track, which I buy at this point, is a cold storm.

  78. When does next euro run comes out? 12am? Also ithink the gfs is the accurate solution. The euro IMHO seems overdun. Keep in mind folks this is only a one day storm. Its not a slow mover, its impossible to get 2 to 3 feet of snow in just a day right? Thats why i dont buy the euro at this point, even tho i wish it could be true!

    2. Kane, you are probably right, but recall that many were saying the same thing about the 1/12/11 storm. That one managed to drop a widespread 18-24″ snow with much of it falling in a 12-15 hour period. When these things bomb out, they drop snow at a rate of 2-3″/hour and tend to slow down a bit as the amplify. Yes, the Euro is probably overdone, but it could conceivably happen.

  79. Like that run of the run of the GFS. Storm will could trend slighty colder but that run seems a reasonable forecast basis right now.

    2. In the past 24 hours, no two runs of the GFS have been alike. Last night at this time, it had us dry on Friday with no storm at all. How can you buy into this model when it has been so inconsistent?

  80. Well, it is safe to say that confidence is high now that we are in for a significant snowstorm and the potential is still there for much more in some locations. GFS/NAM/Euro have all been trending stronger with each run and that trend hasn’t stopped, YET. Will be interesting to see what changes happen tomorrow when the pieces of energy responsible for this storm come ashore off the Pacific.

  82. I saw both Harvey & Pete and I think they both did a very good job detailing what they could yet making it clear that there is still potential for shifting of things.

    1. I think he played it well for 72 hours away from peak. I can’t disagree with those #’s. The 6 covers the low end barring some monumental shift southeastward or some complete lack of phasing. The ‘plus’ leaves the top end open for potentially higher amounts. THAT is how you forecast snow amounts more than 24 hours out.

  84. Oz Canadian has a direct hit/impressive benchmark storm – down to 980 mb as it passes SE of New England. Stronger than the GFS but not quite as strong as the Euro. P-type issues abound though south of a BOS/PVD/HFD line.

    1. Regarding your question above:

      You can buy a run when as a meteorologist you believe it has a handle on the situation, regardless of previous runs. The truth is, 2 out of the last 3 GFS runs are similar. The 18z was off, which is to be expected on a run missing some of the data available to the runs preceding and following it.

    1. I’m getting seriously worried about this thing.
      Harvey said 6-12+ Notice the 12+ Me thinks he is
      seriously underplaying this. 😀

      1. Not that he’s underplaying it. He’s playing it safely. The + leaves it open for him to add. It’s exactly the way he should be doing it beyond 48 hours.

        1. I understand that completely. What I am saying is that
          he KNOWS full well that it is likely to be 12+, but he really
          can’t say that yet. Understand that. I wasn’t being critical. 😀

          1. Exactly. I didn’t think you were. I was using the comment as a launcher to my point. Perfect set-up, O.S. 🙂

  86. I’m just getting nervous about this whole thing in general. I’m supposed to work the 7p-7a overnight shift from Friday to Saturday and have to commute fom the north shore into Boston. Not having a good feeling about this.

  88. @Micah… In reply to your comment earlier: I think you may be referring to the big storms in the winter of 1995-1996, especially the “Blizzard of ’96” in January. Didn’t quite make 30 inches on those but there were several storms not far apart that put down a total of much higher than 30 inches, so the overall result was very similar. The 30+ inch storms I am referring to at my location in Woburn are March 31-April 1 1997 and February 6-7 1978. 🙂

  91. One aspect that I think is interesting is that this will be if I’m not mistaken, the first “social media snow storm” ie the first big snow storm in the North East since the proliferation of twitter, facebook, blogs etc. Two days ago most comments were about winter being “over.” Suddenly, in the last 24 hours, we’re in for the “greatest snow storm of all time” and that it seems, will change hourly with every computer model run until the “big day” arrives. I think it’s important to remember that Friday and it’s potential snow will come and go. It’s snowed here before, it’s snowed a lot before and will again. The omnipresence of social media today seems to increase the hype factor of everything by about 10. Besides snow, what is it that people seem to “get” out of these storms? A storm like what’s being talked about and all it’s attendant media created drama combine to produce a huge emotional event that seems to have people in a tailspin for days. Proof of what I’m saying is that this comment will instantly be labeled by some as coming from a “hater” merely because I’m questioning what’s going on. I think it’s important to keep feet on the ground – that’s all…….

  92. I only see people discussing their thoughts about the upcoming storm, no drama that I am aware of. (shrugs)

  93. Solomon Islands earthquake update.

    It caused a tsunami and may have destroyed 100 homes; flooding; at least 4 known deaths; fear that some fisherman may have been swept out to sea. Full damages really not known.

  94. Pretty snowflakes falling in Lynn. Temperature is 27 f. There is an inch of fluffy, white snow on the ground.

      1. Brighton may have gotten an inch at best, but certainly not enough for the plows to be scraping the roads overnight. Salt would have been sufficient! What a ghastly sound at 2 am – plows on bare pavement!

    1. You would be correct! Curious why bristol and plymouth counties were left out of that. Is NWS going with the 00z GFS?

  96. I saw the graphic on The Weather Channel EURO 12 plus for SNE. The GFS a 3-6 inch storm. This is looking more and more likely that it will be a plowable event. The question is how much. I would expect winter storm watches to expand across SNE later today.

    1. 🙂 Oh no, is it disappearing already! Did I not see that coming. I sure hope it’s not the start of a trend that the rest of the models will begin showing later today!

  99. Wxrisk.com
    ‎*** ALERT *** ALERT ** 0Z WED EUROPEAN MODEL KEEPS NEW ENGLAND HISTORIC SNOW STORM ON TRACK … NO CHANGES … BURIES CT ( even coastal areas) EASTERN MASS 18-24″ OF SNOW or more …

    woof woof woof woof

    THIS SNOWSTORM HAS BETTER THAN 50-50 CHANCE OF PLACING IN TOP 5 SNOWSTORMS OF ALL TIME IN EASTERN MASS / BOSTON looks like feb 1978…

    RAIN GOES TO SNOW …. Heavy snow for NYC and all of central and Northern NJ LATE friday Night … into eastern PA as far south as PHL by 1am SAT am ..

  100. Anyone got a precip map for EURO?? The storm looks to stick around for a little while and dumps alot of precip. GFS still has a strong storm coming over us but has precip issues right up to Boston.

  101. MOST OF THE 06/00Z GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE
    GENERAL IDEA OF A WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES
    LATE THURSDAY NIGHT…WITH A MORE SIGNIFICANT LOW PRESSURE
    DEVELOPING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC STATES AND MOVING NORTHEAST.
    06/00Z ECMWF HAS DRAMATICALLY SLOWED THE TIMING OF ITS LOW
    PRESSURE…RESULTING IN FAR MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM FOR OUR REGION.
    GIVEN THIS SHIFT…LEANED AWAY FROM THE 00Z ECMWF AND FOLLOWED A
    CONSENSUS SOLUTION WHICH INCLUDED THE 05/12Z ECMWF. THIS WAS TO
    MINIMIZE THE TIMING DIFFERENCES AND TO SMOOTH OUT SOME OF THE
    DETAILS IN THE FORECAST.

  102. THE FIRST AND PROBABLY THE BIGGEST CONCERN IS WILL THERE BE ANY
    MIXING ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN. GIVEN THE CURRENT POSITION OF THE
    HIGH AND BOMBING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ON THE MODELS…ODDS FAVOR
    MAINLY SNOW ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. THERE COULD BE SOME ISSUES
    FOR A TIME ALONG THE FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST ESPECIALLY
    THE CAPE/ISLANDS. THAT IS THE SCENARIO THAT THE CURRENT MODELS ARE
    ADVERTISING…BUT A 50 OR SO MILE SHIFT IN THE TRACK NORTHWEST
    WILL MAKE A BIG DIFFERENCE. IF THIS WERE TO OCCUR…MIXING ISSUES
    COULD AFFECT A LARGER PART OF THE COASTAL PLAIN SO SOMETHING WILL
    HAVE TO WATCH CLOSELY GIVEN THAT WERE STILL 72+ HOURS OUT.

  105. The TV met snow maps were all over the place this morning.
    Channel 4: a foot + all over the state
    Channel 5: 6-12″ (the Harvey map)
    Channel 7: 8-12″ (JR said that he wouldn’t be surprised if the Boston got 12-18″)

    As usual, Cape and the Islands less. I know the stations need their ratings, but these amounts seem so speculative to me. Like all of us, I believe there is a difference among forecasting, speculation and of course hype. At this early stage, these amounts seem to be somewhere between speculation and hype. They may be in part model driven, but it is more than 48 hours away.

    1. Agreed, however, even the 00z gfs painted less that 6″ just to the south of boston with ptype issues throughout

        2. Hmm, I must have been looking at something else. Its so hart to tell on those maps. Id say 12″ would be a stretch for immediate boston, but a few miles south the amounts drop off dramatically hence the lack of winter storm watch for northern bristol and plymouth counties

        3. I’m just confused. If I look at the GFS panel by panel, the best QPF is over SE New England. I understand mixing issues, but the panel to panel QPF doesnt look extremely impressive in upstate NY or from Concord, NH points east. Must be extreme snow ratios. I dont know. 🙂

  107. interesting about NWS comment on slowing Euro. If true, that might explain why the NAM and GFS wind it up just a tick late. How will this get resolved. King vs. GFS Super Bowl.

  109. If you follow all the comments above, we should not trust the 00z, the 06z or the 18z. Where the heck are Don Kent & Bob Copeland when we need them?

  110. Just my instinct here. As stated above, models are pumping out a ton more QPF. I hope they are correct, the region needs all it can get. For fun, I’ll try some details here. We’ll see how terrible the verification of this was for 48 to 60 hrs out.

    Last night I said put me down for 4-8 and I’ll stick with it. If its ok, I’ll specifically within that range narrow down to 6-8 inches regionwide.

    From New Bedford northeastward to Plymouth has a decent chance at 1 inch total precip melted, but in that area, low snow ratios and temps around 30-32F the majority of the event will result in a waterlogged 6-8 inches.

    From this area, moving northwestward to a line of NYC-Hartford-Worcester-Lowell-Portsmouth, NH will have .4 to .7 total melted and with better snow ratios, that will get them 6-8 inches.

    Another 50 to 75 miles NW of that will have .25 to .4 with even better snow ratios for their 6-8 inches.

    Received 1 – 1.25 inches of snow overnight.

  111. I communicated with Joe Joyce on FB about this storm. He is thinking a blend of the euro and gfs for now but would be worried if the euro keeps showing these higher amounts. He indicated that the euro does not have much ensemble support. I gave him the blog address and told him to check it out.

    Everyone be on your best behavior! 🙂

  112. TJ on accuweather forum some people have access to pro so it’s has exact numbers and it shows over 2 inches.

  115. I went with preliminary 12-24 on FB as a head up for people. So maybe I will be way off but I don’t think so.

  117. Dont get me wrong, im rooting for the EURO to verify, but I have a funny feeling it comes back to reality starting with this afternoons 12z run. Colder run than the GFS but with less qpf thats been advertised.

  119. Whatever happens, I hope it starts early enough that workplaces have the sense to cancel before the masses have to commute… The timing for this thing looks like a nightmare, whether we get 8″ or 2′.

    1. Well said!!! I never root for weekday snow…there are those with kids and two working parents…like me 🙂

  121. I think less QPF =higher ratios end result similar if not same. 1-2 feet will be common unless things are way off.

  122. I also noted on FB how I believe Blizzard conditions for a time are likely. Lets see what the 12 runs have to say about that 🙂

  124. I guess it’s what you believe is going to happen. My forecast is baed on the euro with a small blend from GFS. Just can’t go away from 7 euro runs in a row.

  125. Here is the QPF Breakdown from the ooz GFS / NAM/ ECMWF

    Hartford GFS .7 / NAM .5 / EC 2.0

    Providence GFS 1.0 / NAM 1.25 / EC 3.0

    Springfield GFS .6 / NAM .5 / EC 2.25

    Boston GFS 1.7 / NAM 1.3 / EC 2.75

    Lawrence GFS 1.1 / NAM 1.1/ EC 2.25

    Chatham GFS 1.7 / NAM .8 / EC 2.25

    ECMWF ENS shows a solid 2.0-2.5 region wide, however both the 00z OP and ENS are actually down 25% from the 12z run which was 2.5-3.0. I also think the timing of the 12z, the slow down of the system the amount it produces on the back side are all suspect, so I am actually discounting it somewhat right now and going with a colder GFS/NAM scenario right now, which has good support from their ensembles. I think precip issues are limited to the south coast and cape at this time. Generally more east of Worcester and if I had to pick a bullseye region right now it would be the southwest Boston suburbs

  126. When I say colder GFS/NAM I am referring to colder than those two models are advertising with limited precip issues.

  127. im hoping this storm is not to close and gives all of eastern mass a change over to rain friday afternoon. before changing back.

    1. Always a possibility, but sounds as though this storm has enough cold air to remain all snow in the Boston area. Not saying that right at the coast- give or take a mile that mixing won’t be an issue, since that is entirely possibly.

  128. well, while we’re waiting for 12z, thought I’d bring up that it looks like we might have a shot at 2-3 more storms before this month is out.

  130. Ratios won’t be anything special. Generally February Climo of 10-12:1. Extreme south coast and cape (where rain should be come involved) could be as low as 8:1 for a period.

    You know I hate amounts 48 hours out because I like to stick to 2-3″ ranges. However I will go broad and say 10-16″ Boston Metro (North to South) with 12-18″ in the bullseye region SW of Boston. Worcester 8-12″. Springfield /Hartford 6-10″. Someone in this situation is going to get dry slotted and there is going to be a valley shadow effect in areas below east facing hills. Bust potential wherever that sets up….

    2. Great info JMA – thanks. Weren’t the SW suburbs the same area that had the highest amounts from 78?

  131. Dam!

    Henry Margusity ‏@Accu_Henry
    The storm will be a New England Big Daddy Special. New York City a tough forecast between heavy snow and rain.

  132. NWS (BOX) Hazardous Weather Outlook issued @7AM:

    CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN THE POTENTIAL FOR A VERY
    SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM EARLY FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY. WHILE
    LIGHT SNOW MAY HAVE DEVELOPED FRIDAY MORNING…THE WORST OF THE
    STORM LOOKS TO OCCUR FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY SATURDAY.

    THE EXACT DETAILS OF THE STORM REMAIN UNCERTAIN SINCE THE EVENT IS
    STILL 72 HOURS IN THE FUTURE. THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY AT THIS POINT
    IS WILL THERE BE ANY MIXING ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN THAT WOULD
    CUT DOWN ON POTENTIAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS.

    IN ADDITION…THERE IS A MODERATE TO HIGH PROBABILITY THAT A
    PERIOD OF STRONG WINDS WILL REQUIRE THE NEED FOR WIND HEADLINES
    ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL PLAIN LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY
    SATURDAY.

    FINALLY…THERE IS A MODERATE TO HIGH PROBABILITY THAT A ROUND OR
    TWO OF MINOR TO MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING WILL OCCUR ALONG THE
    EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS COASTLINE DURING HIGH TIDE FRIDAY NIGHT
    AND AGAIN SATURDAY MORNING.

    1. The NWS sounds confused:

      “THE EXACT DETAILS OF THE STORM REMAIN UNCERTAIN SINCE THE EVENT IS STILL 72 HOURS IN THE FUTURE. THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY AT THIS POINT IS WILL THERE BE ANY MIXING ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN THAT WOULD CUT DOWN ON POTENTIAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS.”

      Where do they get 72 hours? This storm is just 48 hours away. In 72 hours, it will be over!

  133. I read through the above comments again and I now have the snow totals absolutely NAILED. Boston will receive 6-36″. 🙂

  134. Question for Hadi.

    Not trying to paraphrase but do you believe in this particular scenario, that higher QPFs bring lower ratios and lower QPFs bring higher ratios? If so, why? Thanks.

  137. Longshot due to a colder and little less powerful storm that will not warm up the BL as much so ratios might be a tad higher in certain locations. So less QPF could amount to same snow totals. But this is from a armchair met 🙂 just my thoughts

    1. Nobody wants to flinch. One version is an ordinary snowstorm, the other is a top 5 historic blizzard. Lot’s at stake.

  141. Again I go back to 7 euro runs in a row, when its locked in like this it’s accuracy is outstanding. Even of we cut .75 off the euro you still get to 2 feet in spots.

  142. Has the Euro shown that the storm is slowing down at all? The reason I ask is on the 00z run the storm moves a little further east and south as it starts to pass by cape cod does this mean it could be blocked a bit and pushed south?

    1. There is my prediction from a few months ago saying that we prob’ly will get 1 blizzard this yr.! I am not saying this storm will be a blizzard, ‘though.

    2. The TV mets will under BIG TIME pressure during tonight’s news to put up REAL totals. None of them will be able to hide from it.

  147. Hadi I agree the mets are in a tough position but I watched all three major stations this morning and thought they did an exceptional job in the order of 7, 5, 4. JR had a graphic of “What we know” and “What we don’t know” and explained the two systems, etc. Five also explained the two systems joining. Four did not explain as much but was as clear as the other in stating the forecast is preliminary. As was the case prior to Sandy, not one is hyping and all three are doing an incredibly responsible job of telling the viewer what COULD happen while stressing it is just too early to be certain.

    Is there such a thing as reverse hype? I think bloggers and tweeters and anyone else who accuses the mets of hyping are actually the ones doing the hyping. As with pre-Sandy I think our Boston mets deserve kudos

    1. The problem is people only here what they want to, I sent out something yesterday stating that snow vs rain r in question but if it stays all snow we could get a foot, every single person I told which r many said quote “when does it start and do u think we get a foot? Then I have to repeat myself, then tommorrow when they r asking what’s coming and I say rain and then snow and 6-10 inches every single person I told has a sour puss face like the forecasters were wrong again bc they remember hearing a foot, it’s a no win situation for the met, anyways gfs looks warm!!!! If euro is warmer today then it will be called big hype

      1. I agree, Charlie, but that’s the minority. I honestly believe most people are intelligent and get the facts. I don’t believe that mets should cater to the exceptions because in the end, they will find fault no matter what the outcome.

    2. Todd G. posted a nice breakdown of all the potential ingredients on wbz’s blog last night. Too bad some of that could not have been shared with channel 4 viewers this morning. Oh well, guess they save it for weather enthusiasts that take the time to visit their blog 🙂

    3. Vicki, I saw them all too and they were conservative and mentioned the caveats. What I think though is that will try not to hype it tonight but will under pressue to show very real snow maps. Tonight’s snow maps will be taken by viewers as comittments or facts or absolutes or whatever you want to call them. I wouldn’t want to be one of them.

      1. Longshot, I absolutely agree! And shotime, I’m sorry they didn’t show Todd’s breakdown too. The other two stations did exactly that and I felt better informed having watched them. Again…..another bad decision from the top?

    4. Though it’s hard to deny that most bloggers seem to be “pro snow” hoping for the “worst” or “best” possible outcome. Anyone who isn’t “rooting” for an all out devastating blizzard is branded a “hater.” I enjoy the discussion but don’t get the wishing for a terrible storm…..

    1. I didn’t see Longshots post and should add that I totally agree and as was the case with Sandy, the network bosses – rather than let the mets do what the public wants them to do – will definitely put the pressure on tonight and force the increased hype factor. Too bad it’s the mets who are blamed and not the powers to be at the networks. Makes me wonder how foolish people get in high places far too often 🙂

      And if you think my soapbox is tall this morning, wait until it has 16 feet of snow under it 😉

  150. 6z GFS is garbage to be honest and the 00z GFS is much more robust Charlie.

    Today’s 12Z runs will be the key to what the mets go on air with tonight. If EURO maintains same track then that’s 8 in a row and it can’t be ignored.

  151. Wxrisk.com
    ‎6z GFS… at 7PM FRIDAY EVENING.. this is still too fast BUT this is a huge massive step to the European

  152. Morning all,

    Just read all the comments. Don’t have much to add.
    Hadi, Do you have the 0Z Euro snowfall map?

    Just one thing I noticed, the Euro absolutely seems to want to SLOW
    this thing down. Also, it appears to be a bit more off shore than in previous
    runs.

    I don’t see any precip type issues in Boston. Perhaps far South shore and the Cape
    and Islands.

    My main concern is that Mother Nature throws a last minute surprise at us:

    1. An OTS scenario
    2. No Phasing after all and only a light to Moderate event strictly from Northern Stream

    As always, I anxiously await the 12Z runs.

    Right now NOT even going to post the 06Z NAM and GFS snowfall maps.

  155. My Fore-casts are at about 50%, Now-casts are near 75%, and the After-casts are 100%. I’m gonna wait till Saturday to let you know my thoughts.

  157. I have a strange feeling that something is going to go wrong with our little Blizzard of 2013. Do you realize how much has to materialize in order for the EURO to verify? I for one cannot discount the EURO since it’s had 7 runs of consistent blizzard conditions here in SNE. However, I wrench always seems to be thrown in at last minute to make this a sizeable storm rather than a historic storm. I do hope the EURO prevails!

      1. Same here in the south end. It always blows my mind when I drive from here to Brighton for work. 5 miles makes a huge difference.

  160. Also the EURO ensembles are supporting the op which is very important.

    Arod i agree its wrenching to put all my faith in the EURO, but I just can’t steer away from its consistency

    1. actually if you look at where the two branches meet, it is indeed over the open waters albeit south and east. Don’t look at the two storms that you see. Rather, follow the two jets and see where they meet. That is important. As the southern trough strengthens, it will allow the jet to dig and cause phasing of the jet streams a bit sooner but not until both hit the coast.

    2. Was just doing the exact same thing, looking at full country view of the radar on the weather channel site, and looking at their future projection, you can see the two systems heading closer together….

    3. great link rainshine. I’ve been playing with stopping and starting and slow motion. Thanks for posting. I won’t even attempt to translate what it means but love being able to see how it all works

  163. rainshine I think you will see the southern stream energy out pace the northern stream and meet up closer to the coast. Again just an amateur here

  164. I think we all worry a bit about the monkey wrench after the past two winters. On that theme. If something were to go wrong, I would like to hear people’s thoughts. Does NW (Merrimack Valley) of Boston have to worry more about an OTS solution or do SE MA including Boston have to worry more about a mix issue. Which one is more likely to happen? Who ends up with more snow Taunton or Lowell?

    1. I think an OTS solution is least likely. Mixing issues could be more likely especially if the EURO prevails and the jet amplifies/buckles more than anticipated. However, if something were to go wrong, the most likely scenario to occur IMHO is that the two streams merge too late and we end up with a weaker solution providing us with a moderate snowstorm. Either way you slice it, there will be storm. Will it be the blockbuster (merging of the two storms at just the right time and track over just the right location–BM) or will it be a weaker colder solution (northern jet storm only)?

  166. the high location on the NAM looks really good, you can also see the storm digging more on this run as well.

  167. Thanks, alisonarod, tjammer and Hadi – I can see that now after re-looking at it.

    Vicki – I love looking at the satellite loops. Sometimes I think I understand them, but I am always learning, thanks to this blog! 🙂 Sounds like you have a cold? If so, hope you feel better soon. Think about putting on your “special socks” ! 🙂

  168. Wxrisk.com
    ‎** CURIOUS ABOUT THE 0z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE ? ** INFO HERE…

    in a word it is MASSIVE and every bit as huge of new England snowstorm as the Operational / regular European Model from 1am this wed morning

    Wxrisk.com 1PM FRIDAY… PRECIP in NYC r/s mix… Moderate snow in Much of PA NYC and snow is Just reaching BOS

    7PM HEAVY SNOW… eastern PA/ Philly NYC most of NJ all of southeast NY …all of NYC and Long Island …all of MASS CT RI ..

    Moderate snow over central and eastern PA all of central and eastern and Upstate NY and northern new England

    1AM SAT …. STILL heavy all of MASS RI .. Moderate snow still over N NJ NYC southeast Interior NY all of CT western half of Mass southern VT southern NH southern ME

    7AM SAT yes this thing is STILL GOING !!!!! Moderate SNOW over all of central and eastern NY still LIGHT snow over NJ NYC southeast Interior NY and northern New England

    1PM SAT– STILL snowing over BOS se mass coast of Maine

      1. GULP.

        Does that say what I think it does? Even if it’s overdone by 12 inches, we’re still looking at close to 2 feet??? FEET?!

  176. The NAM seems to have hopped a board the blizzard train. That has me concerned. NAM as we know does quite well within the important 48 hour window and to see this confirm the EURO is quite surreal.

  180. OMG.

    How about that little stall and loop out.

    If this is real it’ll challenge the top storms of all time.

  181. Lets see, most public schools already have the week of Feb 18-22 off and when the South Shore got about 30 inches of snow in January 05, it cancelled the first 3 days of the following week getting that enormous amount of snow cleared from the sidewalks, parking lots, etc. UGH !! There goes school ending on June 13th.

    1. No kidding, that slowdown just east of us is eye opening. Am I reading the legend correctly as 48 to 60 inches ?

  183. Wow, NAM is a MONSTER HIT!

    Did I read that snow map right? 48-60″ bullseye? To say this model has gone bonkers is an understatement!

  185. It would have to snow at 3″/hour for 20 consecutive hours to reach those totals. Maybe on Mt Rainier but not SNE!!

  186. Now that brings the NAM in line with the Euro and as long as teh 12z GFS and Euro don’t deviate too much we are going to get crushed

  187. WOW!! Yeah the NAM just went out of its mind. Looking forward to the 5ft of snow south of Boston.

    Actually NAM does one of my pet peeves. Puts way too much precip on the back side of the combined low and lingers the precip really long. But this is awesome fun to watch!

  188. It’s a bad read…that won’t happen. Like JMA said (and TK)…don’t hang on the runs and look at what else is going on not related to the models.

  189. Hey folks, Me thinks we is in serious trouble.

    I wonder what the 12Z Euro and 12Z GFS has to say, but we are clearly in the
    area where the NAM reigns supreme!

    I can hear the Headlines now!! Snowicane to Strike New England!

    Snowicane Blizzardo.

    Holy S**t Batman!!!

  192. At least a couple of days after this event, the sun will be back, it will be 40F or better and we can comfortably decide from where to start digging out. 🙂

  194. That NAM run is sick.

    If both GFS and Euro show the same, it’ll be a front end loader on the highways storm.

    How about the Nam picking up on the Euro stall. That’s telling.

  199. That is some serious stuff! Oh man! I don’t think I’ve ever seen a model dump that much precip/snow over SNE before in my life!

  200. How about how the cold air just gets entrained in the SW side of the storm on the Nam and just blows it up. Great stuff.

  202. And have they figured out a name for this potential storm yet? 🙂 I don’t know where TWC have gotten with their names yet.

      1. Sorry, but I am not laughing. I know it is all in fun, but I meant my question in regard to TWC and their silly names.

        Charlie – Maybe you found it funny – if so, ok. I tend to be sensitive at times and so I think of the other person. That’s just who I am.

  205. From WeatherBoy:

    Residents of the eastern 2/3rds of Massachusetts, including the city of Boston, the northern 2/3rds of Rhode Island, including the city of Providence, all of New Hampshire, the eastern half of Vermont, and all of Maine should begin making preparations for the possibility of a record-breaking blizzard.

    Confidence is increasing of a major snowstorm Friday & Saturday which could dump in excess of 3 feet of snow to this region.

    Heavy snow could disrupt travel, communication, and utilities for a prolonged period of time and residents should begin making preparations today and finalize them tomorrow. This has the potential to be a paralyzing storm that could risk life and property –it is important for people in this region to take this threat seriously and plan appropriately should the storm come to fruition as forecast.

    1. I don’t blame them at all – this is career stuff with this type of potential event.

      If the 12z GFS and Euro all come into alignment, they’ll start lighting up the blogs because it’ll soon be all about life safety awareness, public service and of course, ratings too.

  208. I’d certainly touch it. Clearly (or not so clearly) the NAM is way overdone but it has latched on to the EURO idea of the two storms merging into a bomb and then slowing its forward progress way down, almost stalling, reaking havoc over sne!

  209. The Nam run looks extremely scary and if this thing does decide to stall out we may be looking at trumping the blizzard of 78!! Get your sleds polished and waxed because we may need them to get around for awhile!! One of the things that I can see happening is a dry slot forming and it happens often and shuts off the precip in eastern mass any comments on that Os, Tk or allisonarod??

  210. That is now two models on board. We all know the GFS will not depict such a ridiculous scenerio but I do feel it too will begin to look like a cousin of the EURO and NAM. If it even remotely looks like its predecessors, then we are in big big big trouble!

    2. Yes, exactly. I said that yesterday.
      I am seriously worried. Yes, I wanted snow, but NOT THIS!!

      If we simply take 1/3 of what the NAM is projecting, we still get 20-24 inches
      of snow. When the NAM overcooks, it is usually what about double actuality?
      If so, then taking 1/2 we’re looking at 30-36 inches.

      So it could be historical with Just 1/2 of the NAM’s projected totals.

      This is NOT looking good at all. There will be serious health and safety issues.
      Did you see those winds? Can you imagine the snow drifts. This could
      potentially be crippling, totally shutting down the whole region for a week or more.

      I can’t even begin to imagine!

      Make your food runs. Check the flashlights and batteries.

      AHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH!!!!!!!

  211. The GFS and Nam have been pretty similar so far so I’m not thinking that’s going to change a whole bunch

    1. The GFS certainly has painted a more suppressed and weaker solution though thus far. If the GFS latches on, it’s game on until a monkey wrench gets thrown in that the models aren’t seeing. (i.e. dry slot, mixing issues, non-merging storms, storm track to far south, etc).

  214. Matt Noyes Tweet

    “Increasing confidence of prolonged storm potential w/coastal blizzard conditions centered Fri Night to Sat AM”

      1. All sorts of reasons, but mostly the ETA which was the old name for the NAM created a low that got too deep too fast and became over amplified just north of the benchmark and then put way too much precip on the backside. It was a little south and east of the Benchmark and never reached its projected strength. AVN which is now the GFS underestimated the dry air in place and much of the front end of the storm was lost to virga delaying precip onset and losing front end snows.

        But it is more just a funny video than a lesson….

        1. Thanks JMA.

          Currently, anyway, this does not look like a bust.
          But anything “could” happen.

          I think it is a matter of How Much, not IF.

          Fun Watching. 😀

        1. Based on that run with I would certainly up my high end thinking, but is also why I hate throwing out numbers early.

          Boston Metro-Providence Metro Areas -Major Snowstorm

          Worcester Metro-Large Storm

          Springfield Metro-Moderate-to large Storm

  220. GFS is a MONSTER HIT as well, perhaps a bit faster than NAM and Euro but still prolific totals!

    Batten down the hatches baby!!!!!!

  222. Looks like we’re in business now.

    Still a 2’+ storm for many.

    GFS seems a little faster than the NAM but the overall look is still there.

    1. That’s all she wrote folks. There is no denying the NAM/GFS/KING at this point. Clearly something big is going to happen. Will we see 5-6 ft? Not a chance. However 2 ft plus with ease is extremely likely! This is the one we’ve all been waiting for!

      1. OS. The GFS has come a long ways toward the EURO. I think this is just one step toward achieving the higher totals than 16-20. Watch for the GFS to continue its trend. I wouldn’t be surprised if it too anticipates 24+ for most of SNE. The GFS has trended a bit closer to the coast which means possible mixing issues Boston south at least at the onset. I’m not buying into that just yet.

  227. GFS has the stall and loop too.

    The only real difference between the NAM and GFS is there is less qpf after the “loop”. (probably to JMA’s point on NAM overdoing back-end stuff) Doesn’t matter though since this is a screamer no matter how you look at it. I mean, who’s gonna split hairs over 24″, 30″, 28″. It’s all the same at that point to me.

  229. 12z GFS 1.9 in Boston 1.7 in Worcester 1.0 in Springfield. Surfaces temps in Boston are 35-36 during the daylight Friday, not sure it gets that warm.

    1. Winds will be howling out of the north and northeast and with that big fat H to our north Boston doesn’t break the freezing mark at the surface IMHO.

  236. What’s the start/end time for this beast?

    What I’m really wondering is….will it impact both commutes? Evening commute?

  238. Also looking at the GFS QPF output I bet it underdone a little so I think 2+feet is achievable in many locations

  241. METS aren’t silly enough to call for widespread 2 ft plus snowfall accumulations .They will keep upping their snowfall amounts even during the storm.

  245. STILL details to work out. Prelim amounts 12-20+ much of area.

    I have a meeting at my son’s school 2:30-4:30PM after which I will write a full update.

    2. From NWS:

      * IMPACTS…DEEP SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE LIKELY ON UNTREATED ROADS.
      IN ADDITION…STRONG WIND GUSTS MAY CREATE NEAR BLIZZARD
      CONDITIONS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY WITH SNOWFALL RATES
      OF 2 TO 3 INCHES PER HOUR POSSIBLE. TRAVEL MAY BECOME NEARLY
      IMPOSSIBLE.

      * WINDS…NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH.

      * VISIBILITIES…ONE QUARTER MILE OR LESS POSSIBLE AT TIMES.

    1. Right…

      The King will just be like on Christmas morning when your mom “discovers” an unopened gift an hour after you ripped all of the others open.

  255. It’s funny. It’s almost as if a storm isn’t even coming. It gets mighty quiet in here when we know the big one is coming. Is everyone out getting their milk and bread or is just that there isn’t much else to say??? LOL.

    2. LOL ! Just returned from my daughter’s elementary school to celebrate her recent birthday…… We are allowed one personal day per year, so its nice to get a chance to see the models when I’d usually see them after 3pm.

    1. That sun is showing some of its 8 degree angle increase. Air is chilly, but sun is warm…….car sitting in sun was mild inside.

  260. Arod, I am trying to get computer work done — I work from home and I am concerned about whether I’ll have electricity on Fri aft/Sat/Sun.

  263. And tonight on ch 4 at 11pm, the Eye Team reports on Massachusetts workers wasting work time on weather model runs. Make sure Joe Shortsleeve is not behind you ! 🙂

    1. M.L. All METS are being caution. However, even in the NWS write up, they clearly state that these snow totals are likely underdone. Looks for those 10-14 inch amounts to rise as we get closer to the storm and as models continue to converge on the same solution–a vertical stacked, slow moving BOMB!

  265. Just to clarify for Charlie–The NWS states 1-2 inches of PRECIP just for friday night. I believe they are referring to 1-2 inches of liquid equivalent which would amount to 12-24 inches of snow with the snow ratio.

    1. Agreed ! At 10-14, everything is disrupted anyway. Then, upping the totals has everyone prepared for the disruption, while, I think, allowing accuracy to take place in people’s minds. Go the other way, forecast 2 to 3 ft and end up with 10-14, and most people think the forecast busted.

  267. I wonder what school systems do Friday ? Certainly, easy ride in to get the day started……. Wonder if this is one of those, when the snow starts, dismissals begin. What time is the snow supposed to arrive ?

    My pet peave back in my corporate world days was when after about 3 to 5 hrs of heavy snow, with it still snowing and the roads awful, they woukd then say, you can go home now (a bit earlier). And I’d be thinking, go…… into THAT ? Gee…….thanks ?? I’ve always thought that general policy was silly.

    1. Watch it evolve, away from the models. 🙂 Look at a radar in south Texas, the Gulf is already opening up. Decent area of moderate to heavy rain in that vicinity.

  269. now what happens with this storm. If its gonna be a record snowstorm. what is it actually ben named. what the weather channel calls it or what the national weather service and local mets call it ?

  270. This is starting to look like the first level 3 snow event we have seen in 2 years which is MAJOR on the 1-4 snowfall index with snowfall between 10-20 inches. I would not be surprised if some places in SNE have a level 4 snow event with snowfall exceeding 20 inches. I am waiting for Litchfield County here in CT to be placed under a winter storm watch like Hartford, Tolland, and Windham Counties.

    1. JJ, this is tough call for snow totals here in CT. It appears there is going to be a sharp cutoff across the State ranging from a possible run of the mill noreaster (6-10″ snow in the western part of the State) to prolific snow totals (2 feet+) in the NE corner. Not to mention the snow shadow/bust potential in the CT River Valley, including Hartford and Springfield. Tough Forecast. Only a 30 or 40 mile shift in the track makes a huge difference on which Towns receive what.

  271. I was just remembering Mark Rosenthal and Bruce Schwoegler talking about a blizzard that was going to rival that of 1978, and it ended up being a bust. I think it was the early nineties. The night before the storm they were calling for 2-3+ feet of snow. Anybody else remember this? I always think about it when one of these storms comes along.

  272. Just heard Barry B. on wbz and he said this is going to happen! He called it snowmaggedon!! He said most likely this will be a blizzard and he just started looking at the new model and it still shows it bombing out and slowing it speed even more! He is calling for at least 12-24″ for eastern mass!! He said this could be a top 5 storm in history!! Wow are we in trouble with this one!!! All the ingredients are coming in place for this one!!

  275. Joe Joyce ‏@JoeJoyceWBZ

    Euro has storm stalled off the Coast Sat AM w/ blizzard conditions. 2 ft snowfall potential with greater risk for coastal flooding

  278. just now Joe Joyce

    Joe Joyce ‏@JoeJoyceWBZ

    Euro has storm stalled off the Coast Sat AM w/ blizzard conditions. 2 ft snowfall potential with greater risk for coastal flooding

  280. Matt Noyes ‏@MattNoyesNECN

    Coastal residents – u are not as locked in as the interior…indications of east wind til midnite Fri & ocean is mild

  282. ahhhhh crap….

    Matt Noyes ‏@MattNoyesNECN

    Coastal residents – u are not as locked in as the interior…indications of east wind til midnite Fri & ocean is mild

    1. Any storm of this magnitude always has the potential for mixing issues but typically they are confined to the cape and islands. With a storm position as such, east winds quickly become northeast so any mixing near the coast and north of plymouth shall quickly change to heavy wet snow!

  285. I disagree with him bc the euro is a tad east from 0z run but maybe when I see the text output I can post it

  286. That bomb becomes vertically stacked which is why it stalls just southeast of nantucket. We are completely screwed here people. I mean completely and utterly screwed and it could be for days for some! Get your generators handy and if you’re like me, GET ONE!

  287. take a look at this

    Wright-Weather.com ‏@Wright_Weather

    @JimCantore Jim, here is the NAM 84 hour snowfall accumulation using 10:1 ratio. New scale.Feel free to redistribute. pic.twitter.com/V4XMRWO1

  291. The ONE thing that has me concerned with this event, is that good ol’ fashioned dry slot that seems to shut off our precip while central and northern NE continues to get whaled on

      1. This would be the perfect trajectory for a dry slot to move up from the southwest and into central/eastern sections of MA. We have seen this before.

  292. Alisonarod,

    The Euro has this storm sit and spin off our coast and just throws back huge amounts of moisture. I don’t know liquid precip yet..But its definitely making me real nervous. This thing is huge!

  294. im waiting until tomorrow afternoon to say that this storm will be a blizzard or a monster storm. I do think somthing will happen. just my gut says the models are over doing it. and we will have a normal snow storm.

  296. Text output for KBOX

    2 M 850 SFC SFC 700 6 HR 500 1000
    TMP TMP PRS RHU RHU QPF HGT 500
    (C) (C) (MB) (PCT) (PCT) (IN) (DM) THK
    WED 12Z 06-FEB -5.2 -10.1 1015 83 80 0.00 533 522
    WED 18Z 06-FEB 3.2 -10.8 1015 46 28 0.00 535 523
    THU 00Z 07-FEB -1.6 -11.7 1020 51 29 0.00 540 524
    THU 06Z 07-FEB -5.1 -11.7 1027 40 29 0.00 544 523
    THU 12Z 07-FEB -6.9 -12.4 1031 38 65 0.00 547 523
    THU 18Z 07-FEB -1.8 -11.7 1032 29 91 0.00 549 525
    FRI 00Z 08-FEB -4.7 -11.9 1033 46 85 0.00 553 527
    FRI 06Z 08-FEB -3.3 -10.9 1032 57 99 0.00 553 528
    FRI 12Z 08-FEB -1.2 -9.5 1029 67 96 0.00 553 530
    FRI 18Z 08-FEB 1.4 -6.1 1025 72 90 0.02 553 533
    SAT 00Z 09-FEB 1.0 -5.7 1018 92 100 0.20 550 536
    SAT 06Z 09-FEB 0.9 -6.5 1008 92 98 0.56 543 537
    SAT 12Z 09-FEB -5.2 -11.7 1005 87 73 1.20 535 531
    SAT 18Z 09-FEB -8.5 -11.1 1009 81 89 0.80 533 526
    SUN 00Z 10-FEB -6.7 -11.8 1016 73 91 0.18 538 525

    1. One thing to remember, fluff factor is affected by wind too. High wind knocks flakes around into each other breaking them down smaller. Higher winds = lower fluff.

      1. As in a bit earlier? I wonder when we get into the serious stuff. Im planning on leaving work at noon anyways. I have a feeling this will be a storm that doesnt get going gradually. Once it starts it will come down and accumulate quickly.

        1. I’m more curious about end time, because I have plans for Saturday afternoon (3pm or so). At first it sounded like this would be over long before then, but now I’m hearing words like “stall”…

          1. Start time around 9 a.m. becoming steadier and heavier by early afternoon. Heart of the storm occurs Friday night thru Sat. morning before tapering off early to mid afternoon. I do think there will be some dry air to overcome at the start which is why it may be a gradual progression into the heavy snow. But, once late afternoon and nightfall hits, heavy snow is here to stay for a good 12-18 hours!

  303. Hadi, where are you getting the Euro text output? Curious what it is spitting out for QPF for Hartford, Springfield, and Worcester.

  305. Here we go. The 12z Euro QPF output for a number of cities (courtesy Accuweather forum):

    Augusta: 1.42”
    Bangor: 1.10”
    Bedford: 2.87”
    Berlin: 1.24”
    Beverly: 2.82”
    Boston: 2.97”
    Bridgeport: 1.56”
    Chicopee Falls: 1.72”
    Concord: 1.96”
    Danbury: 1.41”
    Fitchburg: 2.51”
    Groton: 2.17”
    Hartford: 1.79”
    Hyannis: 2.58”
    Jaffrey: 2.05”
    Keene: 1.65”
    Lebanon: 1.20”
    Lewiston: 1.58”
    Manchester: 2.32”
    Martha’s Vineyard: 2.71”
    Milton: 3.03”
    Nashua: 2.43”
    New Haven: 1.68”
    Pittsfield: 1.38”
    Plymouth: 2.89”
    Portland: 1.99”
    Portsmouth: 2.44”
    Providence: 3.04”
    Taunton: 3.06”
    Westfield: 1.70”
    Worcester: 2.54”

      1. Most ratios will be around 12:1 and ratios will become higher the further away from the coast you go. This is why you can expect “widespread” deep snow totals.

  306. I can’t believe I’m saying this. What does a generator cost? And is there a brand that’s better than others.

    1. Most portables will run 400-600 for a middle of the road one (4000W or so). If you are going to do it, do it now…Lowes also has one that runs on standard grill propane tanks that is good…3500W or so. Brand? At this point take what you can. Sears sells them…Craftsman.

        1. Portables won’t as you need them hooked into the house…or invest in a whole house generator which will run in the thousands. The portables just have plug outlets so anyting you plug into a wall will run off them.

              1. Thanks coastal. In thinking I need a whole lot more than I want to pay to run the heat through the pipes so they won’t freeze

                1. Look at the Generac whole house ones…can’t do it now but a good long term invesment. You on gas or oi?

      1. Tom I saw your question above about school. I’m wondering if they will cancel. Framingham has had 2 so far

    3. Hi Mark…. I saw your comment earlier here about CT and I am thinking the further east you are the better chance of a foot
      plus. Here where I am I am think a 6-12 inch storm. This was the case with the blizzard of 2005 where I only got a foot here
      where areas closer to Rhode Island boarder got close to 18 inches.

      1. JJ, the Euro pumps out 15″ as far west as Danbury so don’t be so sure. Right now, Im thinking 10-15″ in western CT and 15″ to 20″ in eastern CT – assuming the current model solutions remain largely unchanged in the next 36 hours.

  309. Well, technically, I’m locked in at 6-8 inches, but for fun….

    Logan : 21.4 inches
    Worcester : 20.3 inches
    Providence : 23.7 inches
    Sweet Spot : Norwood, MA : 29.7 inches

    Eastern Marshfield, MA : 13.4 inches of pure cement.

    3. Its one thing to go by instinct in a dry pattern, but with all the consistency and the big QPF numbers, its goodbye instinct and hello to the reality of lots of supportive data.

  311. Boston (Logan)- 28.9 just so it breaks a record
    Providence-26.8
    Worcester-22.6

    Sweet spot not sure where but 33 inches-Maybe JP 🙂

  313. Generally 12z ECMWF is about .25 more across the board than the 00z. Look I am in on this storm and aggressive, particularly east of ORH. I think the storm moves quicker than the ECMWF wants to portray though. Now I am thinking when everything looks so fired up like this, what goes wrong to keep the model consensus from verifying? Please help me out. Give me some ideas on what are the negating factors here. I learn a lot from each of you.

    2. 41F ocean temporarily cuts down initial totals in the first 20% part of the storm (afternoon hrs Friday) that shaves off a few to several inches on the front end

      Potential banding that increases totals more in some locations, while other areas get less in between banding

      1. I think that there will barely be any accumulation at the coast early on in the storm. In fact, would not be surprised to see little or no accumulation until after 4pm/5pm. But, it will crank up then. My guess is the highest totals will be just west of Boston, and just south but away from the coast.

    3. Oh and its been a dry overall pattern, but, nearly every model’s QPF is very high, so, I guess a big QPF event is possible within a dry pattern. This idea of such QPF was holding me back through even this morning, but I cant go against the data anymore.

    1. LOL !!

      In addition, storm at 84 hrs is over Newfoundland and the snow shield still extends back into eastern Mass.

    1. Will be interesting to see what happens here in Hingham. Tom’s in Marshfield and about 15 miles SSE of me. I’ll go somewhere in between his total and Merlin’s and say 20 inches in Hingham most falling after 4pm on Friday. It’s even interesting to see that here in Hingham toatals can vary. Down by the Harbor can have a lot less than where I am in West Hingham.

  319. Also JMA its only Wednesday afternoon and this storm it not scheduled until Friday, that always concerns me this far out.

    1. That’s in the back of my mind believe me but the model consensus is keeping some of my nerves in check

  320. One thing to keep in mind is the huge melt that will occur Monday and Tuesday. We need the precipitation. And the fact that we’ve been so dry will help us during the melt. Still, if we get over 15 inches of snow, as is expected, there will be some real issues with poor drainage, etc … Also waterlogging on roofs, roof avalances. February sun combined with temps up to 50 will be the culprit.

    1. Agreed. If you have a roof rake, use it. I have a two story and can only get a foot or two cleared but that’s al you need!

  321. NAM QPF will be overdone and I’ll go with 2.5-3.5 inch QPF.
    As for snow totals I will give mine later but I am thinking high end level 3 snow event low end level 4 snow event.

  323. Somewhere in the models/forecasts I think I saw the possibility of rain on Mon/Tue. I am so modeled out that I don’t want to go back and look.

  324. We r within 36hrs of the impending nor’easter, as I see it it should start snowing Friday morning between 7-9am

    2. Charlie, thanks for that. I was just about to ask about starting times. I have a client who just emailed me about an early Fri am app’t. Even though he is not that far away, I think I will opt for a phone app’t.

  335. URGENT – WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
    319 PM EST WED FEB 6 2013

    …A POTENTIAL HISTORIC WINTER STORM AND BLIZZARD IS EXPECTED TO
    DROP 1 TO 2 FEET OF SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION FRIDAY INTO
    SATURDAY…

    1. im just south of lowell in billerica…. i think most on this blog is from area inside of 128 and east of i95. so yeah lets add lowell. 😀

      1. As you may know Longshot, I’d usually be laughing at this. However, with the consistency of the models to show 2+ inches of melted precip, this one time it seems a reasonable expectation.

        1. Actually, 18-24 I still feel is a bit conservative. This is the third time now that the NWS increased their amounts just today alone. I do not feel they will be done going up.

          1. Agreed. NWS generally plays it a little on the conservative side on their prediction maps while being a little more open ended in their discussions.

  341. I think its the lack of data…I’m going to say no good…Yet still dropping almost 2″ of liquid at 60hrs

  342. Look, I know it is the 18Z NAM, but man is it going way off shore!!!
    Still shows over a foot for Boston and 30″ Plus down East Main. 😀

      1. Salty if I’m reading that right that’s the position of the low as of 10 am on Saturday and precip for the previous 6 hours?

  347. I am not a big fan of the NAM. If the 0z EURO and 0z GFS show what the 18z NAM shows then I would be concerned.
    Just saw the updated snowfall totals and a wide area of 18-24 inches.

  348. Two subtle differences, maybe, on the NAM 18z 500 mb that are causing it to be different and probably are resulting from a lack of real time data……

    I think on the 18z, its difficult to see the vort max in the southern stream as it crosses the southeast US the next 36 to 48 hrs and it seems the northern stream disturbance is just a slight bit north of where it was on the 12z.

  349. Tweet from BB

    @BarryWBZ: 2 BIG wild cards associated with this impending storm: I’ll talk about them on the WBZ NEWS AT 5PM today. HIGH STAKES!

    1. Now, its not the 18z NAM that makes me nervous, its BB’s 2 wild cards that I’m not meteorologically smart enough to know what they are ! 🙂

      2. PHASING ISSUES. he thinks the southern storm will not phase. and will keep us below 6 inches if that occurs if anything

  351. I just don’t like the 6z and 18z because I think it falls into the TMI area and often unreliable TMI, so I have enough to look at with confusing my limited mind space even more! Now within about 24 hours of a storm I will gaze at them to look for some potential trends. So tomorrows 6z runs / 18z runs I will check in on what they say for their first 24 hour forecast cycle.

  352. I absolutely would not sweat the 18z NAM. You’ll give yourselves chest pain if you analyze every single model run. As TK says, use the models as guidance. Even if the 18z NAM were to verify, Boston still sees 20 inches of snow which is plenty enough for me! Stay grounded everyone.

    1. 🙂

      Got to run, all I can think of is…….

      BL temps initially, dry slot, phasing too early (closer track) or too late (further off shore)

      I dont know, I’ll miss those broadcasts, perhaps someone could post his wildcards. I’d like to know what they were. Thanks !

  356. Is BB no hedging? He just tweeted “2 Big wild cards associated with this impending storm: I’ll talk about them on the WBZ news at 5pm”.

  357. I think one of the wildcards is precip type at the coast, and then dry slotting for a time. Thats my best guess.

  358. Possible Negating Factors:
    1) Storms never merge giving us a moderate snowstorm courtesy of the northern jet
    2) Storms merge but too late (too far east)
    3) Storms merge but storm track suppressed and further south than anticipated (OTS)
    4) Storms merge but closer to the coast (mixing issues)
    5) Storm becomes vertically stacked (dry slot forms)

    Which of these five do you feel could most likely make our storm a bust? I go with 5)

    1. I’m thinking all of the above are the two wild cards……the two systems and when and where…….and I am probably 100% wrong.

  363. Perhaps the wildcards he speaks of are good wildcards (or negatives if you’re a snow hater). For example, he could be referring to the low stalling and dumping heavy snow over us hour after hour. The second good wildcard he could be speaking of may be where localized very heavy snow banding could set up which would include thundersnow! Let’s not always interpret things as negative when he discusses wildcards. Let’s be a half glass full kind of crowd 😀

    1. I’m always a glass half full person ….i need a new glass, i think. The constant storm misses have broken my old one

    2. I did think of that — meaning that depending on progression, amounts could vary greatly. He might see a slowing resulting in huge amounts of snow.

  364. Re: Wild Cards

    All of what was discussed above are possible, but I would lean to:

    Phasing issues as alluded to by Alisonarod

    I do NOT see precipitation type as an issue in our area, perhaps far South Shore, Cape and Islands.

    1. Well said OS. That’s scary if the two phase to late or not at all. That would bring totals down from 2 ft to 6 inches in a hurry!

  365. I don’t mind some snow but I don’t know how anyone can WANT a storm like this. For me, I would only want it if (1) I rented and (2) didn’t have to work…HAHA.

        1. WeatherWiz. If the storm strikes, I don’t think work will be an issue since we will be in a state of emergency, roads will be impassible and your place of employment will likely be closed 😉 Can you say snow day?

            1. Husbands company will have them make it up or doc them unless they want to use vacation time or sick pay.

                1. If in a state of emergency, all non-essential workers are advised to remain home. If they make you come into work, they are putting their business on the line, especially if one of their employees experience severe bodily harm or death from trying to brace the storm. Also, since it won’t be profitable for most businesses to open during the storm, many of them won’t open at all.

  366. Terry posted on twitter about place reaching 30 inches if things line up, so I can’t think that BB and Terry would not be on the same page

  368. I live in Sandwich. Supposed to drive to Jackson, NH on Friday after work…
    Why oh why does the one storm we get, be when I’m supposed to be in NH for the weekend??? UGH!

  370. how can you tell where the dry slots will happen? also, i have always noticed that there is a little cut off in QPF around springfield, i saw that someone mentioned earlier something about the shadow affect? why do they always get lower amounts there only at that certain area, west of springfield towards brekshires its highter, and east of springfield is also highter? i guess this map will help to prove my point, from fb http://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=431524413589878&set=a.195395557202766.50338.195385233870465&type=1&theater
    as always, sorry about my grammar, english once again is not my first language :p

  371. From NWS:
    Please note the TEMPERATURES!!!

    * IMPACTS…HEAVY SNOW AND STRONG WINDS WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL
    FOR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS. THE WORST OF THE STORM WILL BE FRIDAY
    NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. SNOWFALL RATES OF 2 TO 3 INCHES PER
    HOUR POSSIBLE. TRAVEL MAY BECOME NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE WITH BLOWING
    AND DRIFTING SNOW.

    * WINDS…NORTHEAST 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH.

    * VISIBILITIES…ONE QUARTER MILE OR LESS AT TIMES.

    * TEMPERATURES…IN THE MID 20S.

  372. Ahhhhh, the infamous incomplete, uninitialized 18z GFS about to spit out. Curious to see what it has to say. Either way, it is the 18z GFS.

      1. And NO he did not say it would go OTS — he just put it up as a possibility. I think the NAM gave the hint whether you want to believe that run or not.

      2. Of course that could happen along with a million other things that we listed. However, that remains a possibility, not a possibility. Again, BB has to cover his behind should the storm bust. I’m not buying when not one model ‘implies’ this solution.

        1. My guess was the powers that be have made it clear to 4 mets to give themselves an out. Can’t blame them

  379. Vicki, not sure if you’re taking snow total projections, but if so here are mine 🙂 Thanks
    Boston (Logan)- 22
    Brighton – 29 (ha!)
    Providence-30
    Worcester-25

      1. And that is still conservative. If the models are still singing the same tune tomorrow, look for amounts to increase to 20-30 with isolated 3 ft amounts!

  381. Barry is just covering his tail, if it busts so he can go back and say I told you so. Terry at BZ keeps upping nmbers.

  382. I know what BB is worried about, the RPM model shows some mix on the coast. The RPM as we know has not been very good but they use it in house.

  383. Harvey is in same camp 12-24. Perhaps a wider range. 10-16 along south shore but he said rain line may not go up that high

    1. 🙁

      I’ll bet, even if its for 5 minutes, it will rain during some part of the first half of the storm at my house. Thats why I’m going 12-15 in eastern Marshfield, specifically 13.4 inches at my house.

  385. Vicki, did not see a snowfall map from channel 5. If you go thier web site, you can find an hour by hour snowfall slide show which Btown more than 30″ based on one model. If you want to believe it.

    1. Thanks longshot. The map on their home page was the one Harvey used. Once I’m on my computer tomorrow ill keep an eye on the hour by hour. That’s great to have. Thanks

      1. they said a a wide spready 12-18 inches. for most of southern new england. says possible higher amounts possible interior northeast mass up into maine.

  386. I am here now Vicki…thanks for missing me! Had to take my aunt for some tests at the hospital and cell phone service was bad! John must be resting for his weekend full of snow removal! My aunt told everyone at the hospital that I have people in the know and it was going to be a big storm.

    1. Hahahaha. Your aunt was proud. That’s very cool. I hope all is ok. Even with a rain line, Harvey had you in 10-16. Yay

      1. It will be a very long weekend for John. I’m sure they were gearing up today and will tomorrow as well

      1. Snow/rain line won’t make it much past the cc canal and south coast. Even in those locales, the rain quickly changes over to heavy snow once the storm bombs out.

    1. I was watching 4. What’d he say. Same thing BB said? So far 7 is the holdout. My guess is that the network heads will catch on. Again can’t blame them. Too many times, even when they are right, they are wrong

  389. Here we go. All the METS will discuss these “altering factors” so that IF the storm is a bust, they have an out. LOL. Love it.

  390. Todd just posted big five for Boston

    Feb 17-18 2003 27.5
    Feb 6-7, 1978 27.1
    Feb 24-27,1969 26.3
    March 31-April 1,1997 25.4
    Jan 22-23,2005 22.5

  391. Harvey’s caveats: 1) 42 degree water temps, 2) track going a little east, and 3) mixing. Therefore he is: 1) giving Boston area a wide range of 12-24, and 2) saying Cape and Islands are a tough call — all depends on his 3 factors.

  393. If we bust on his gem of a storm, I blame Jim Cantore for this tweet:
    @JimCantore: When I get to #Boston tomorrow for storm coverage the first thing I am going to purchase is a yardstick. #snow #MAwx

    1. Yep, what I said above. So far station hasn’t forced the issue but as soon as they get wind that 4 and 5 have a back door they’ll want him to have one too

  398. Those are very obvious caveats. They aren’t telling us anything we don’t already know. Yet, these caveats are not likely at this time.

  399. This screams classic thoughts about rain snow line that never happens, I remember back in Jan 2005 the same thing and it never changed

    1. Was just going to say that. I think the colder scenario prevails with that big fat H to our north and east. That has been the missing ingredient this entire winter.

    1. That’s just disgusting. Btw, did you mean to post the final SREF totals? The link you provided deals with surface pressures.

  403. I will look through all the comments since 4:30PM soon. In the mean time, the blog is updated!

  405. Well looking like we have a big coming, to much consistency with the computer models to ignore. I’m on board now. Not going to put a number out because I just don’t know. One thing that concerns Me is the new moon. One thing that comes to my mind is the perfect storm, aka the no name storm. That was the blizzard of 78 without the snow, I saw major destruction in Marshfield and scituate. There was as much destruction from that storm just like 78. Am I saying this will happen not the moon worries me. I have been feeling under the weather since Friday as I have a pain on the right side of my neck that at times is down the center of my neck and back. Went to the doctors yesterday and she said I probably have a strain. She wasn’t concerned as its only been since Friday. I stayed home today to rest. I’m nervous for the storm with shoveling and.. running equipment. Arod any feedback I would welcome.. would doing these activities help or possibly aggarate oit.

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