Storm Update (Friday Morning)

485 Comments

7:27AM

This is the first of several updates to come throughout the storm. This one is only an update for time period and shows no changes to the discussion or forecast. The next will be posted this afternoon. Everybody stay safe!

Blizzard Warning through 1PM Saturday for most areas except portions of north central MA and Nantucket Island. Winter Storm Warning for these locations.

A blizzard is defined as winds of 35 MPH winds or greater and visibility under 1/4 mile due to heavy falling and/or blowing snow for a period of 3 hours or more. These conditions will take place over a large portion of the region Friday night into Saturday.

Storm track: Northeastward from the waters south of New England to the waters east of New England between Friday morning and Saturday night, possibly stalling for a time.

Mixing: Yes some mixing with rain is still possible over the immediate coast and especially Cape Cod and the Islands, hence the slightly lower projected totals there. But even there by mid storm it will be all snow.

Wet or dry snow? Wetter where mixing occurs and on the immediate shoreline to start, dry and fluffy elsewhere, then becoming drier and fluffy all other areas during the storm.

Start time: Ocean-effect snow showers may reach eastern MA around or after midnight or in the early hours of Friday morning. Storm’s snow will start light during Friday morning then grow steadier and more moderate into the afternoon and moderate to heavy by late afternoon.

Peak time: All of Friday night and well into Saturday morning when snowfall rates of up to 2 and even 3 inches per hour may occur.

End time: It may take all day Saturday to taper off but all snow should be done by early evening except lingering ocean-effect snow showers possible over parts of Cape Cod.

Accumulation (inches): 4-8 Nantucket through Outer Cape, 8-16 Mid Cape & Martha’s Vineyard, 10-18 Upper Cape, 18-30 elsewhere with a few 30+ amounts possible.  IMPORTANT not to focus on the top number in the range. The large range is to cover the fact that much of the snow will be dry and fluffy and there can be great variability due to local effects (elevation, ocean-enhancement, etc.). Also, blowing and drifting will be considerable and will assure that very few areas end up with level snowcover when this is over anyway.

Coastal flooding: 2 to 3 feet of storm surge flooding is possible especially on north-facing and east-facing shorelines at high tide times Friday night and Saturday morning. Some property and shore road damage is possible.

Wind: Starting out east to northeast and increasing to 10-30 MPH during the day Friday, shifting more northerly with time, 25-45 MPH inland and 35-55 MPH higher elevations and coast with gusts 45-55+ MPH inland and 55-75+ MPH higher elevations and coast.

Power outages: Isolated to scattered. Not expecting widespread ones because much of the snow will be dry and not stick to the trees and power lines. This may be less the case on parts of Cape Cod and the Islands which may have wetter snow longer. Leafless trees also lessen the chance of trees coming down.

Lightning & thunder: Not out of the question that some occurs during this storm. It can be fairly common with intense winter storms.

Updated forecast for southeastern New England…

TONIGHT:  Becoming cloudy. Ocean-effect snow showers possible east coastal areas around or after midnight. Lows 15-25 northwest to southeast. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Overcast. Snow develops, light and spotty then light and steady morning, growing moderate to eventually heavier at times during the afternoon. Mix/rain possible immediate coast especially south of Boston and Cape Cod/Islands. Highs 25-35 northwest to southeast. Wind E to NE 10-30 MPH, strongest near the coast.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Stormy. Moderate to often heavy snow except mix/rain parts of Nantucket and Outer Cape eventually changing to snow. Blizzard/white-out conditions often occurring. Rapid snow accumulations except in mix/rain areas. Lows 15-25 northwest to southeast. Wind NE to N increasing to 25-35 MPH with gusts 45-55 MPH inland and 35-45 MPH with gusts 55-75 MPH coastal and higher elevation areas. Isolated higher wind gusts are possible in all areas.

SATURDAY: Overcast. Blizzard conditions including heavy falling, blowing, and drifting snow to start the day, with gradual lessening of this during the day. Additional significant snow accumulation (see above for numbers). Temperatures steady 15-25 northwest to southeast. Wind N to NW 25-35 MPH inland and 35-50 MPH coast with higher gusts in the morning, diminishing slightly in the afternoon.

SATURDAY NIGHT:  Lingering snow showers Cape Cod otherwise clearing. Lows around 10. Wind NW 15-35 MPH diminishing overnight. Additional blowing and drifting snow.

SUNDAY: Sunny. Highs 30-35. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Clouding over. PM light snow/mix/rain. Low 20. High 40.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Low 28. High 42.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. PM rain showers. Low 33. High 44.

THURSDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of snow showers. Low 23. High 37.

485 thoughts on “Storm Update (Friday Morning)”

  7. I wonder since the wind will be high and the snow fluffy where I am if roofs won’t get as much. I remember a windy/fluffy storms years ago and I was amazed at how little was on the roof after as a result.

  9. Thanks TK !

    Ocean starting to whip up a bit, some splashover at seawall in Brant Rock (very minor) and saw a few cottages boarded up.

  11. Some of the maps of snowfall predictions are “off the scale”. This reminds me of what happened in Australia about a month ago:
    Previous forecast maps capped the temperature-colour scale at 50 degrees Celsius, which was shown as black. Tuesday’s forecast was predicting temperatures of between 52 and 54 degrees C this week, though, so in order to keep the public properly informed of the risks, forecasters added the colours purple (51-52 degrees) and magenta (53-54 degrees) to represent these extremes.

    For those who remember Spinal Tap:
    “These go to 11.” — Nigel Tufnel

  12. It’s sit back and enjoy time. Widespread 24-36 inches of snow expected with isolated 40″ amounts in a few ‘eastern’ locations if the storm stalls and doesn’t depart until late afternoon/evening tomorrow. Enjoy and be safe everyone!

  16. Look at what is lurking up the coast a bit, once the winds back into the NE and then N

    Portsmouth, NH : 15F, Portland, ME : 11F.

    Beyond all the synoptic related QPF, I wonder if areas south of Boston get additional enhancement when the very cold air gets entrained in the storm and high teen and low 20F air is moving over 41F ocean water.

    1. as a matter of fact they do. A deformation zone will set up just south of Boston further enhancing the snow. This is why I’m calling for a spotty 40 inch amount around norwood, foxbor area.

  19. I can’t tell if today feels like Christmas or the beginning of the apocalypse. I have stomach butterflies in anticipation of this thing…

  22. If anyone needs to go to work be safe out there and i suggest getting home before noon time..
    road conditions of a 1 to 5 scale is a 5. roads will become impassible after 6pm. and will be difficult after noontime.

    snow accumulations.
    on the cape and islands: this is where the most range will occur.
    the islands will see 4-8 inches. cape cod could see any where from 8-24 inches. higher amounts near the canal and actually near provincetown. most will see at least 10 inches.
    southeast mass: depending on where the rain/mix line forms. most will see 2 feet+ 16-24 inches southcoast down towards the canal. but where ever it stays all snow you could easily get around 24 inches( 2 feet)+
    the rest of eastern mass: depending on banding. some locations might see lesser amounts than 24 inches + (2 feet) more around 18 inches. but most will see at least 2 feet.
    central mass. still good chances of seeing 2+feet of snow but more pockets of 16-24 inches. expecially the ct river valley around springfield mass.
    western mass will see 16-24 inches+ most of rd and ct will be getting 18+ inches of snow.
    so in general at least 18inches+ of snow will fall in your area. where the heivier bands fall we can easily go up to 3 feet.

    Blizzard conditions for all of eastern mass south central mass all of ct and rd. winds of 35-45mph with gusts up to 75 mph . sustain winds can reach 45-55 mph friday night for areas inside of 495 down towards the coast. would not be surprised if blue hill records a gust up to 100mph. . winter storm warning for western mass up into north central mass. with blizzard conditions being possible at times friday night. winds between 25-35mph with gusts up to 50 in some locations.

    my mom went to the super market and said alot of the food is gone. she had to travel to two different stores. and yes there are 3 market baskets in my town.

    You still have time. the birds are eating away at my birdfeeder and they are all out cirping away.. already have a small dusting from the small snow shower that formed earlier.

    1. To this day I don’t get it..I bet anyone has enough food at any given time to last a week…what do they think will happen??? No one starved in 2005.

  29. So, basically, on the south shore, I’m going to experience a tropical storm, with hurricane force wind gusts and 2 ft of snow could be conservative.

    1. Amazing. Think most weight at this time frame should be given to NAM. Have to think 30 is most likely across the region, as opposed to 24.

  35. Looking at radar and comparing with GFS vs. NAM/EURO clearly you can see what was correct. toss out the GFS period.

  36. The southern branch storm system is impressive on its own. Add the northern branch to give an already energized southern system BAM big time snow amounts!!!

  41. The NAM model is insane with snowfall amounts. With that said there is consitency with that model. It did nail the January 2011 winter storm. I would shave of about 2-4 inches on the NAM. No matter how you look at it this is still a major if not potentially historic storm.

  42. Yesterday I said to discount the GFS. It’s a blend of the EURO/NAM. If NAM were to verify Worcester/northern RI/metrowest would receive 48-60″ of snow!!!!

    1. The NAM clearly has this storm stalling and locking eastern new england in the heavy snow much longer than the EURO and especially the GFS. If this storm does stall out and accumulating snow doesn’t move out until late tomorrow afternoon, some of those high numbers may verify. That’s the big wildcard here guys. Don’t forget that!

      1. It doesn’t take much of a ridge in the east for it to rain a day or two later. Also take note that the High over Quebec will be retreating east. Yes, the snowcover will create ‘some’ cooling at the extreme surface but temps just above will approach 40 degrees.

  44. I am buying into the NAM, not the highest end but I am posting an update for friends on FB that 3 feet might be common and 40 + inches not out of the question to certain locations.

  46. Look at the banding already just NW of the storm center. Yellows and reds all over chesapeake bay entrance.

  47. I’m supposed to go to a wedding tomorrow at 5:30pm. Should we take bets on whether or not the wedding will happen? After that 12Z NAM I’m thinking not!

  50. Snowing and breezy here in Plymouth. We are closing at 1:00 which I think is too late but nobody listens to me!

  51. Been snowing tiny but abundant flakes in Marlborough for about 20 minutes. Already a slight dusting on the cars and parking lot surface. Work was just canceled. Heading home. Whew!

  52. Matt Noyes is not coming out and saying this but he talking about coastal front near 495. I would then venture that he must be thinking rain/mix inside that front? He has not come out and said it.

  55. first flakes here. its not an accumulating kind of snow yet. verry light. ithink as it is more like a snow drizzle

    1. He is out of his mind. With all that cold air up in northern new england, snow ratios will approach 20:1 as temps drop into the low teens tonight

  58. Matt Noyes really is pushing a much more conservative line. He’s also pushing the coastal front big time. Talking about 8:1 ratios in Boston and up to Gloucester.

    1. It’s not about protecting himself at this point. There’s not a model that even suggests this would happen.

  62. He seems to be the only one pushing this idea. If hes right, he’ll look like a geneous, but if hes wrong, im not sure he will get back that credibility IMO. It’s high stakes with this one and i dont think he should be going out on a limb and being too conservative or testing out a theory. This isnt just a question on 2-4” vs 3-6,” this could affect peoples lives and possibly his career.

      1. Im not sure they physically merge, but i think its more of an energy thing. The energy of the northern branch system gets infused into the southern stream system

        1. Correct. Note that the northern storm will begin to dissolve over the course of the day it’s energy gets transferred to the coast ultimately feeding the southern stream storm. This storm is in it’s extreme primitive stages of development despite what the radar may look like.

  67. It has been snowing here in northern CT the past 2 hours. Started off with an initial moderate burst that whitened the ground but has lightened up since. Lots more coming.

    Question for TK or whoever – what do you think the odds are that a snow shadow sets up in the CT River Valley? I have seen model projections that show significantly less snow (like 15-18″)in north central CT and central MA, although the 12z NAM has backed away from that and has my area now in the 33-36″ range. I have to be honest, I am so fired up about this storm now, I would be sometime disappointed if we received less than 18″ 🙂

  68. Matt Noyes put a little too much liquer in the coffee this am. Does he know how cold it is now and how much colder it’s supposed to get?

    1. I wonder if Matt Noyes thinks the northern phase arrives “late” and somehow the air doesn’t get cold enough long enough.

  70. take a look at satilite images and man this storm is forming and eye just northeast of the caraline coastline. and can clearly see the energy being transfered.

  73. We just switched from tiny flakes to serious-looking flakes in Lunenburg.

    There is a bird feeder just outside my office window. The birds have been going crazy this morning. They must sense that something is coming. Or maybe they are peeking over my shoulder and reading this blog.

  74. East winds are screaming along the coast right now. Radar showing a mix along the east facing coast almost into Brockton. Temps having moved much though since sunrise. I have 32.4 at home in Easton. At work in Walpole its been holding at 31.

  75. starting to stick to the roads here.

    Can’t believe that NAM.

    Coastal front to 495 huh? If so, I’m on the other side of it which means more!

    Must be because he thinks the closer NAM track is going to verify?

    1. Same thing here TK.

      I’m glad this storm came now and not 30 days from now cause that would beat back the snow totals.

  81. Guys i hate to say it but i believe matt noys is right. There is a almost 10 degree difference between reading and lowell? Woburb and lowell as well and etc.. Coastal front setting up? 10 degree difference thats alot and reading isnt even in the coast. Check thr temperature comparisons between 93 north shore and 495, HUGE difference.. Blahh i hope they drop soon rather than the evening

    1. Kane. These surface temps and any boundary layer issues will quickly dissolve once the main event arrives and height crash. Temps will drop like a rock once wind turns to the northeast. Don’t be fooled.

      1. Temps still holding around 30 here in Hingham. Even the cape is the low to mid 30s….I don’t think it’s going to get much warmer…I think the temps will start to fall back in a few hours.

  82. Note that the northern storm will begin to dissolve over the course of the day it’s energy gets transferred to the coast ultimately feeding the southern stream storm. This storm is in it’s extreme primitive stages of development despite what the radar may look like.

    1. Look at that plume of moisture coming in from the atlantic and wrapping around the center of circulation! Wow!

      1. Totally sick right. Not sure I’ve ever seen a band like that except maybe in a bad thunderstorm complex out West or something

  86. Is anyone following the pressure falls along the carolina coast?? We should monitor that as energy is transferred and how low the central pressure gets.

  88. I am nervous about the temp differences from inland vs. coast. I know I shouldn’t be, but just concerned ratios with be lower than foretasted.

    2. Those temp differences will only enhance the snow from Boston to Providence as a deformation zone tries to set up. Don’t be fooled. The storm has not had an influence on the surface temps yet because it’s still way down the coast. Give it time. The winds are due east right now but as storm approaches, northeast winds will cause those temps to nose dive.

  89. And so it begins!
    Snowing very steadily here in JP. Estimated visibility about 1 mile or perhaps a bit
    more.

    NAM snow map is insane.

    Here is something from our friends at NEWW:

    New England Weather Works
    WE EXPECT THIS WILL BE A BIGGER DEAL THAN SOME ARE THINKING

    Low pressure is beginning to crank just off the NC coast, This is likely to become a Dangerous coastal storm as it reaches Nantucket Massachusetts. We are expecting Major coastal Flooding along the east facing New England coast from the Cape up through Coastal Maine as winds reach Hurricane force, this will likely cause widespread power outages.

    Pressure is already down to 995 MB and falling, very concerned about the steering currents collapsing for a time causing this Gale center to stall along the New England coast, this could impact the region over several high tide cycles.

  90. NWS lates snowmap totalls got lowered? Merrimack valley doesnt have “>24” . It seems like the are of 24 or above shrunk a bit. I am panickong now lol just kidding

  91. Visibility just Suddenly dropped here to about 1/2-3/4 mile!!

    Holy crap batman. Not supposed to snow this hard, this soon!!!!

    1. OS, don’t get too excited. It’s very short lived from an outer feeder band. The real meat and potatoes are just entering the south coasts of CT and RI. Should be here by midafternoon 😀

    2. I don’t think that the snow is just moving up from the South, I think
      the atmospheric dynamics is (call it the northern stream merging, getting invloved) developing snow right over us, even before the main action gets
      here!! How much will that increase totals?????

      1. I don’t think totals get much higher than they already are. LOL. The main wildcard in achieving the big numbers is the stalling of the storm and for how long.

    1. shouldn’t be concerned at all–note the northeasterly movement of the center of circulation–before long winds will turn more northerly and ratio concerns will down the toilet

            1. That’s not being sensitive. That actually reflects the heavier precip that really is coming down. It’s just ahead of the main event situated along the southcoast. It’s getting closer guys 😀

  101. 25.1 degrees here in Groveland 35 miles north of Boston just to the west of 95. Snowing hard and already an inch on the ground. For the storm in December where the ocean influence pushed the rain snow line inland it made it just to my house for about 30minutes before it collapsed. I don’t see that happening this time nor do I think it gets as far as Matt Noyes thinks.

    1. Patience DS. Need wind direction to change which will occur upon arrival of the storm in several hours.

    2. I’ll watch the temps up this way to see when they reverse…it started at 23 degrees at 7am and has risen to 25.1 where its been for the last hour. Does anyone know when the temps are expected to drop?

    3. When the wind flips to northerly, temps will fall. I think every forecater had winds moving from easterly to northerly. Heavy winds too.

  105. Snowing pick up here and the roads and side streets starts to get snow covered. Only 10-15 inches here in western CT but 18-24 inches east of CT River Valley.

  107. 33.8 here in Quincy with light to moderate snow all morning.

    On another note did anyone see the governors address with the lady using her fan the entire time…She was wicked annoying but it would make for a great SNL skit.. HAHA

    2. Between her and the sign languate interpreter, who seemed just a tad too excited, it was certainly an interesting conference.

  109. It is a very wet snow and almost a mix down here in Plymouth. Roads are just wet and so far not even sticking to cars.

      1. WILL change…all forecasters explained that early on before storm arrival the easterly wind will create temporary boundary layers along the immediate coast

  111. Quincy for being at 33.8 has light fluffy flakes. Am I missing something? At 33.8 wouldn’t it be a much wetter snow?

  112. Tweet from BZ

    @wbzweather: Arctic air 2 the north will plunge in2 eastern MA this evn’g & with mesoscale band’g likely, we’ll end up with a potential big fluff factor!

  115. snowing here. times of bigger flakes mixing in with smaller flakes visabilites less than a mile or 2. dustings on driveways and yards. no wind yet. side roads are starting to get some snow on them. boston road is fine.

    1. im gonna play it safe and say 18+ for most of southern new england besides for the cape where 10-18 inches. islands will have 5-10 inches . possibly some lower and higher amounts towards the canal. southcoast is also 10-18 inch range.

  117. no longer 2-3 feet up to 2 feet and not using the NAM as it has initialized poorly

    AM GOING TO STICK WITH THE LATEST ECMWF. THE NAM HAS WOBBLED THE
    LAST COUPLE OF RUNS…AND IN FACT…0Z AND 6Z RUNS DID NOT
    INITIALIZE WELL WITH ITS RESPECTIVE 6-HR FCST IN THE PLACEMENT OF
    SFC AND H5 FEATURES. HPC HAS INCORPORATED SREF MEANS ALONG WITH
    ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS…AND WILL LEAN WITH SUCH TRENDS ACCORDINGLY.

    2. Hadi…did see where in the NWS discussion they said only up to 2 ft…the 1103 EST discussion still is saying 24-30″ across Eastern MA

      1. Hadi is reacting to the fact that they are going with the EURO. However, the EURO still shows close to 3″ qpf and with favorable ratios over night, 3 feet not at all out of the question.

  118. All on track. Don’t panic about the boundary. This will serve to create lift and bigger totals in the NW-W suburbs.

  120. I live in an area of Newton where we get a little less wind. It’s at 1-4 mph right now and mainly easterly but it occassionally flips to northerly. Temp at 32.

  122. Didnt the NAM initialize terrbily in the blizzard of 2010 and we still got hammered. No panic everyone still EPIC!!

  124. Here you go from the text write up at 11 AM

    STORM SNOWFALL TOTALS BY STORMS END MAY BE IN THE ALL-TIME TOP
    10 FOR VARIOUS CITIES…UP TO AROUND 2 FEET POSSIBLE. BLOWING
    AND DRIFTING ANTICIPATING RESULTING IN HIGHER DRIFTS.

    1. Thanks Hadi…yep..saw it now…that’s what I get for being lazy 🙂

      But at the same time in the same discussion

      WILL KEEP THE HEAVIEST SNOWS ACROSS E/SE NEW ENGLAND WITH THE
      EXPECTATION OF WHITE OUT CONDITIONS UNDER HIGH WIND CRITERIA.
      SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 24 TO 30 INCHES EXPECTED…WITH 18 TO 24
      INCHES ELSEWHERE. LOWER TOTALS OVER EXTREME SE NEW ENGLAND OVER
      THE E CAPE AND ISLANDS DUE TO INITIAL MIXING WITH RAIN. SOME
      DOWNSLOPING WINDS MAY CREATE A LULL IN SNOW AMOUNTS ACROSS THE
      CONNECTICUT VALLEY.

  125. Light snow, visibilities lowering, temps near 34F and solar brightness keeping roads clear. Wind is picking up !

  126. Portland, ME is 13F, Portsmouth, NH is 16F. Ageostrophic wind kicks in, temps will crash out. Imagine if fluff factor gets involved along the coast ? 3 inch QPF with a fluff factor ? Oh my !!

    1. It’s going to start to get real interesting around our neck of the woods in the next couple of hours.

  127. I am having a hard time reconciling how many (any?) totals of over 30″ are going to be realized when looking at the radar. Back edge of precip is already in Chesapeake Bay and its only noon. The precip over the ocean is extremely intense and probably good for 2-3″ per hour snows but can’t foresee how this storm is going to be as long a duration as some are saying.

    2. Hey Mark…. They were talking on our local NBC station that the storm is just a little more progressive and may not pause at
      the benchmark for 6 hours as was previously forecasted with the data coming in this morning.

    3. The storm will really need to stall for a bit for the totals to make it — but I think I saw a few mets showing an earlier ending time than they forecasted yesterday.

  129. Radar is really filling in quickly!!! I should see some heavy snow in Quincy soon. Got moderate snow going right now.

  131. JJ- the storm is looking more progressive. I think most of our snows here in CT accumulate by midnight tonight. It will be all over by daybreak. NWS has lowered the totals. Don’t think this will be a record breaker, at least anywhere in CT.

    1. I thnk the forecasts have always leaned toward that any slowdown would affect Eastern New England more than anywhere else.

      1. Mark. Relax and again don’t be fooled and get so emotional before the storm has even reached maturity yet.

    2. I don’t think we need to worry about the progressive nature of this at this point. It’s not suppose to stall until the two energies phase and the storm begins to really bomb out. I know we’ve all been burned by storms fizzling or not reaching their potential particularly in the past two years, but outside the GFS being correct we’ll be ok

  132. TK – what are your thoughts about a dry slot intruding this storm early or a possible snow shadow setting up in the CT River Valley? Are conditions favorable for that to set up? Seems they are with the intensifying east winds and downsloping/drying air.

  133. Hadi. I’m a bit surprised that you’re so concerned. Don’t read into every word the NWS or anyone has to say. Watch the radar trends. Watch the conditions deteriorate.

    As for what Mark commented about regarding the storm leaving chesapeke. Mark, the storm hasn’t even fully energized yet. It’s going to become bigger, stronger and stall for a while once it reaches our latitude.

  135. I think with this all said and done in CT it will not be a top 5 snowstorm of all time for inland and shoreline CT but rather a somewhat stronger Noreaster than normal. Bob Maxon was saying the data coming into this morning showed the storm a bit more progressive and not stalling near the benchmark for a few hours to throw the snow back our way.
    With that said close to a foot west of I-91 east of I-91 12-16 inches maybe some higher amounts Northeast Hills.

  137. From Matt Noyes

    Matt Noyes ‏@MattNoyesNECN

    12PM Blizzard: 86mi E of Virginia Beach. Min pressure 989mb. Max sustained 45mph, gusts 55mph

  138. Well, rest assured, this storm will be the biggest in 2 years, whether it’s 15, 20, or 25″. It will be fun regardless.

  139. Where it is snowing it’s only at 15-20 DBZ. You can almost triple that later today and tonight. That’s how hard it’s going to come down.

  141. For those who are concerned about the storm not realizing its potential. Just focus on the 11 consecutive runs of the EURO and the numerous runs by the NAM.

  142. Arod, wanted to get some clarification on stalling. I think I am seeing a trend in discussion here and even on TV maps that there might be more progression than forecasted just yesterday. Is your opinion about stalling/progression different now?

    2. Not at all. The storms forward speed is as progged. It’s not supposed to stall while near Chesapeke Bay. It’s not until it spins east of nantucket as it becomes vertically stacked when the storm could stall. It wasn’t always a definite that the storm would stall and there’s no telling how long it would stall for. That’s always been my wildcard. However, it’s way too early and nothing has occured that could change anyone’s thinking. What is happening now has nothing to do with whether the storm stalls or not.

  143. TK. Wish to chime in. BB says the two storms haven’t merged yet. When is it expected that the energy from the northern branch gets transferred to the southern stream storm? Also, can you discuss why some of the METS have removed the possibility of the storm nearly stalling?

  145. BB on WBZ Radio @1235 mentioned one model indicating more OTS – was that the GFS or a new run on another model?

        1. Those are the counterclockwise outer bands Keith. Look further south at the center of circulation just of the deleware coast. It does appear the center is moving more eastnortheasterly rather than northeasterly as of now. Could be a problem. Will have to watch for future trends.

  146. Hanover
    Temp 33
    Dew 31
    East Wind Light

    We have about 1/2″ give or take in some spots and nothing under the trees. Snow starting to stick to the roads and edge of driveway. Please send help! 🙂

  148. Deval Patrick ‏@MassGovernor

    Signed an Executive Order banning vehicles on the road effective at 4pm today. #mastorm

  149. In Sebastian Junger’s book the perfect storm, he explains about how the upper level disturbance and Hurricane (I forget the name) interacted with one another to make the perfect storm.

    In it, he talks about the S shape of the upper level disturbance. This is currently seen beautifully in the satellite and radar images over the eastern Great Lakes. Look closely, you’ll see the S shape in the clouds and the precip.

    If that caught up too quickly to the southern stream low, it will pull it back too close to the coast.

    I think everything is where it should be. That S shape upper level feature wont allow the southern stream storm to head further south and east, and though progressive, it should help to slow it down a bit near its closest path just southeast of Nantucket.

    My two cents is to relax everyone, watch and enjoy this powerhouse storm evolve and clobber our region.

  151. NWS Updated 1pm discussion

    TRENDS REMAIN ON TRACK. HEAVIER SNOW BANDS BEGINNING TO PUSH INTO
    SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AS THE NORTHERN-STREAM DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE
    UPPER GREAT LAKES IS WEAKENING AS IT PHASES INTO THE SOUTHERN-
    STREAM DISTURBANCE. ANTICIPATING BOMBOGENESIS TOWARDS THE 40N/70W
    BENCHMARK INTO THE EVENING PERIOD AND ON INTO SATURDAY. WINDS TO
    INCREASE ACROSS ALL OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. SNOWFALL RATES TO
    INCREASE AND VISIBILITIES TO DROP TO A QUARTER MILE OR LESS. THE
    ONSET OF WHITE-OUT CONDITIONS IS ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR
    TWO AS THE STORM BEGINS TO TAKE SHAPE.

  154. They aren’t merging becuase I have a huge fan going out my window facing the ocean…blowing that bad boy well offshore. 🙂

  155. The “storm” has barely started. Merging has not yet occurred (it will) and a healthy model blend will be proven correct.

  156. What is with the snow hole over eastern CT?? No snow growth here yet.

    I don’t see this thing going more OTS….no way. Just think it is going to move a lot faster than originally thought and curtail any epic snow totals. Widespread 1-2′ everywhere. I think 24″+ totals will be few and far between. No records will be broken.

  157. Forget the gfs…its a long range model and not a good one at that…has it been right? Yes, but even a blind squirrel finds a nut now and then

  158. I am looking out my window and seeing nothing. It is a very ragged radar presentation north of Boston in Merrimack Valley with the northern extent of precip not advancing. I mentioned dry slotting and it looks like it is already happening to the north. This will be a good size storm but I think it has trouble written all over it. I do not see any chance of 30 inch totals.

    3. We are accumulating on every surface and every tree and bush here and driving is already nasty and has been for well over an hour. Visibility is also very poor. My husband seemed to think that when he left work in Watertown at 10:45 that there was more snow there than here.

  159. What is the benchmark # for a “bust” going to be? Anything less than 2′ and that’s what people will b saying I would think?

  160. Count me in for many 30 inch amounts just east of Worcester, including Boston. Nothing’s changed…….. I respectively dont believe comments above take into account the interaction of the low with the upper level energy coming in from the west. All is good !!

  161. As a few others have stated the merge/phase hasn’t really taken place yet. Yeah…maybe it won’t happen…maybe it will go OTS but remember that as of yesterday the snow, etc wasn’t really going to kick in until very late in the afternoon. Here it is a little after noon and it’s starting to look like a winter wonderland here in the Hingham area. Let’s see what happens over the next few hours before we all take that 3 mile walk on a 2 mile pier 🙂

  162. A friend just said she listened to Barry and he said some are saying it is going OTS but Barry said he isn’t sold on that. If this thing does OTS I think I want to move out of the state for a bit as the fallout will be beyond belief. Did my friend hear incorrectly???

  163. I just listened to Barry Burbank on the radio and he said there is a chance that this storm is moving further south and east. That will mean more snow for the Cape and less for everyone else. I think you will see snow totals come down soon.

    1. I figured that – that was from a person who thinks it’s overblown so wishful thinking or hearing what one wants perhaps.

    2. Either did I Hadi – the calls for no school and people off the road were excellent IMHO – only if people had actually listened and gotten off the road.

  171. I didn’t say he said out to sea I said more south and east. But, he just came back on and said he was he is sticking with original forecast.

    1. I’m the last one in the business office here at the Med Center and I believe the rest of the center is shutting down shortly. Roads look like they are getting slippery here in Hingham. Wind is picking up too. Heading to Crowe Pt Pizza to grab some food and then heading home.

    1. Almost seems to me that it’s coming together with front end precip sooner than they anticipated. I really didn’t expect what we have to be on the ground until sunset — that of course is if I could see the sun 😉

      1. According to the 12z Nam we were supposed to have 1-1.5 inches at this time (1pm) and we 1.5 so all is well

  177. Newton: Snow = light to moderate. Grassy surfaces completely white. Snow starting to accumulate on parked cars. Temp=33. Very little wind.

        1. Letting her go home early from the Pru so she’ll catch the T at 2:30 pm. Thanks for asking and what abot your offspring?

          1. Great news!! Son’s latest txt said he will get a ride home at end of shift at 6:00. It’ll be in a cruiser so I think he won’t be stopped 🙂

  179. Was just out to shovel walk before mail delivery. About 1/2 of cement on walks
    and bit more on grass.

    Noticed wind appears to be backing some now towards the NE.

    Temps about to come down!

  180. Patrick orders all cars off roads by 4 p.m.
    Governor Patrick declared a state of emergency and banned cars from the roads this afternoon as Massachusetts braces for a potentially historic blizzard.

  183. Wxrisk.com
    ‎** for those that STILL care about Models ..12z ECMWF HOLDS COURSE.. DOES NOT MOVE THE LOW FASTER… STILL HAS THE STALL … DOES NOT LOWER SNOW AMOUNTS AT ALL **

  184. Looking at weather under ground and noticing the wind shift and temp drop not really progressing yet. Should be fun to watch.

  186. The winds have been primarily east to south east. Noticing a little but of a northerly component now.

  187. Coming down pretty good in Plymouth and sticking to the ground now. Roads were slushy when I picked my boys up at daycare. Picked up a couple of Lego sets and movies and we are ready to be snowed in!

    1. I was surprised the reporter had to ask but my daughter said most people are not weather nuts so wouldn’t know ………. geesh we get no respect for our love of weather.

      Coastal – what was the final decision re the employees going to work today?

      1. We went in this morning and adjusted to the conditions. At 9am I had a sit down with the president, Vp and superintendent. They wanted to send everyone home at 2. I told the them not a good idea for two reasons. One, the expected weather conditions at that time. Two, the companies productivity is already down to 40%. Everyone has the storm on their mind and want to leave. The president let us all go at 10am.

        1. Smart man. My husband gets to work at 6:00 normally but majority start at 8:00. They arrived to a full pancake breakfast courtesy of company which was very nice. They were then sent home at 11:00. That gave them two hours of unfocused work and more unnecessary people in the road

  190. Will see what happens. 3 of our 4 stations here in CT have maintened there forecast from last night of 1-2 feet statewide.
    One did lower slightly and I am wondering if the GFS was being favored there. I like what one meteorologist said that will wait till later this afternoon on whether the totals need to be adjusted up or down when new data comes in.

  191. here you go

    Barry Burbank ‏@BarryWBZ

    On track for an average of 3-5″ by 7pm, 13-15″ by 1AM Sat, 23-25″ by 7AM then a bit more after that.

  193. 1. Feb. 17-18, 2003 = 27.5″
    2. Feb. 6-7, 1978 = 27.1″
    3. Feb. 24-27, 1969 = 26.3″
    4. Mar. 31-Apr. 1, 1997 = 25.4″
    5. Jan. 22-23, 2005 = 22.5″
    6. Jan. 20-21, 1978 = 21.4″
    7. Mar. 3-5, 1960 = 19.8″
    8. Feb. 16-17, 1958 = 19.4″
    9. Feb. 8-10, 1994 = 18.7″
    10. Dec. 26-27, 2010 = 18.2″
    10. Jan. 7-8, 1996 = 18.2″

  195. Fast looking like blizzard conditions here. Pretty wild out there and the worst of it
    is nto even close!!

    1. OS, i have a feeling you are getting some ocean enhancement up there. Down into bristol and plymouth counties, the snow is very light. Ground covered, but not coming down heavy at all.

        1. coastal, where are u located? Im back home in easton and its been light since it started, which is right on track

        1. Thanks for the radar link OS. Just being impatient thats all. I hear everyones obs and i cant say mine match up yet 🙁

  196. As I said earlier Boston looks to go from a snowfall deficit to a snowfall surplus by the time this storm system winds down.
    I believe Tom posted earlier today that the 0z EURO has another snow bomb in about 10 days. Wouldn’t that be something to have to big snow events within 10 days of each other.

    2. From Henry Margusity on his morning blog:

      “The pattern is loaded with storms and we have more storms coming the rest of February. This is only the preview of what’s to come.”

  200. Latest Logan Obs at 2PM:

    Last Updated: Feb 8 2013, 1:54 pm EST
    Fri, 08 Feb 2013 13:54:00 -0500
    Weather: Snow Fog and Windy
    Temperature: 32.0 °F (0.0 °C)
    Dewpoint: 30.0 °F (-1.1 °C)
    Relative Humidity: 92 %
    Wind: from the East at 27.6 gusting to 35.7 MPH (24 gusting to 31 KT)
    Wind Chill: 18 F (-8 C)
    Visibility: 0.50 miles
    MSL Pressure: 1019.3 mb
    Altimeter: 30.11 in Hg

    1. That Wind is now at 070, so it has a Northerly component and it is in the process of backing. Temp has dropped at Logan as well. The process has commenced!!

      ALL SYSTEMS GO!!

      Wind is really picking up. Gusting to 35 at Logan. Am seeing that here as well.
      Just had a gust that rattled the windows already.

  201. thinking 18+ inches for most of massachusetts. southeast nh up through coastal maine. highest amounts inside 495 down into interior southest mass up through northern rd to south central mass.
    12-18 inches across south coast and cape. could be higher depending how far the rain/mix line makes it. 6-12+ . could be more depending on rain line.
    east of i95 will be a more powdery kind of snow with lots of blowing snow, east of i95 will be a little wetter snow. south coast,cape and islands will be a heivier snow
    Blizzard conditions will be felt across all of eastern and south central massachusett, rd and ct. sustained winds of 35+ will form with gusts up to 75mph. … i would not be surpised if blue hill records wind gusts of 95+

    roads are closed 4pm and until further noticed. fine of 500 dollors or a year in prison.
    but for those that are working out in the snow or part of a hospital . road conditions will be at a 5 for all of the roads in southern new england…. …. for right now their is really no wind maybe 5mph. with gusts to 8 or 10. light to moderate snow.

    first time i have seen that liquid stuff being used on my street. always been salt…..anyone know what the advantage of the liquid treatement is?

  206. currently
    snow with freezing fog, visabilites less than .25 miles. temperature 22 degrees. around 1 inch of snow., street is snow covered

  209. New England Weather Works
    New England NY , NJ, blinding snow will begin here soon, this is the real deal now, no more playing around, storm is now 986 MB and falling, this will be a bad night for all, blowing and drifting snow will make roads become impassable this evening. It’s crunch time.

  210. About 2″ of snow in Manchester, CT now…still snowing lightly. Heavy stuff close by.

    12z Euro dropped about 2.3″ QPF in Boston. If it verifies, still 2 feet if not more depending on ratios.

    1. Its snowing boarder to boarder in CT right now. The northerly coponent to the win taking over pushing the mix line down to
      the southern part of Long Island.

  211. Just watching Pete Bouchard and he commented on the name NEMO…..He’s pretty funny he said really this is a MIGHTY STORM and your naming it Nemo?? HAHA

  212. Just called in first 2″ Holden to NWS (used my spotter ID for the first time – had it about three years now so no time better than now!)

  213. Moderate snow in Westwood coming down sideways. Winds very gusty now. The two streams are merging now. It almost appears like one storm now. Wow! If we can just get this thing to stall for longer than 6 hours, we’re in trouble!

      1. Its hard to ignore the NAM when its been constiently showing 2-3 feet of snow.
        Where I am in CT we got about 3 4 inches and were not even in the heart of it yet.

  216. Just head out to drive and have some last minute shopping… Big roads are all covered in snow, and streets already started to become impassable… Looks like reaching S+ here in Quincy already…

    1. Not even close to S+ here in Easton and im south of Quincy. Roads are covered though, maybe 3/4″ to 1″ so far. The heavy stuff is still not here yet. Impatiently waiting as it seems its snowing like crazy all around me. I sound like Charlie 😮 but just reporting whats out my window

      1. Hingham temp is still at 30. Snow mod to heavy with winds out of ene and continuing to veer more toward the N. Winds are also picking quite a bit. about 1.5 to 2 inches on the ground. Going out now to shovel the wet snow off the deck.

  217. Energy beginning to capture low. Earlier east-northeast jog is over and a slightly north of northeast movement at a slower forward rate is underway. Look at the echoes south of the Vineyard. The real show is about to begin. 🙂

  218. Just came in from a 4 mile walk (which took me 15 minutes more than usual). I have to say not much has been done at all to clear the roads. Even the main drag has not been plowed.

    Winds starting getting gustier as I walked along and things also got much quieter as there less cars on the road. Saw people on cross country skis already. Most shops except the wine store and pizza shops were closed. Even Starbucks.

  219. As I said above I just came back home so can someone update me on projected totals — when I left the house we were talking about a possible faster progression.

  220. Well, we haven’t even gotten into the depths of Nemo yet; TWC has next storm on the menu. It is named Orko. This storm will cause wintry weather to north and severe weather to south. My husband couldn’t stop laughing when he saw that. The name, that is. The seriousness of these storms and the absurdity of the names – the world has gone crazy. Snowing moderately in Sudbury w/about 4 inches. Kind of pretty out right now – hard to imagine how stormy it will get later.

  222. What is with this gaping snow hole in eastern CT? It’s like the snow bands are just drying up here as they pivot north! Still very light snow here in Manchester CT.

  224. About 4 inches here and our road was plowed about 30 minutes ago and we have a small side road that is usually very last to be plowed. They are taking this very seriously. Good for the town

  228. From my experience in the past storms we had, mostly 2 years ago , these heavy yellow bands on lond island, everytime they approach boston they tend to get weaken or push back, i hope they stay its intesity all the way to the north shore and not just sw of boston , southwest of boston seems to get the jackpot area, hopefully north shore will have a chance of seeing 30 inches of snow

    1. That has mostly to do with the proximity to the radar location and most of the time we’re looking at the same location(s).

  231. I got home over an hour before the first driving ban since 1978 begins. We have about 2 inches so far in Woburn. The first inch was the kind that sticks to everything but wasn’t that “heavy/wet”. It’s now shifted to a dry/blowing snow and the temp is falling. Vis is 1/2 mile at BEST.

  235. The wind blowing the snow almost looks like ghosts dancing! It looks so beautiful. 😀 I feel like I am in a movie 🙂 It lulls me too, I feel so sleepy and comfortable.

    I just saw a car drive by…GO HOME!

    I am in my pajamas 🙂 And I am very happy about that.

    1. Glad you are safe Em! You may be the one coming to pick me up after the driving ban because you have a MUCH smaller driveway. 😉

      Actually we share a driveway with the next door neighbors and it’s big, as you know, but they have a very nice snowblower. I’m scheduled to buy one at the end of this season. Shouldn’t have waited. 😉

        1. my parents say the same thing. i need to shovel all of it .. put its all good. i use the exercise.

    2. Nice to see you Emily. I was going to ask TK to tell you we miss you here. I’m in my jammies too. And it is beautiful.

      1. Well my street is sort of an inner road so it hasn’t been plowed and since I haven’t been out I can’t say if the other roads have been plowed.

        1. My street is too but it just got plowed a second time. It’s an old private truck that doesn’t sound as if it’ll make it. The town must have contracted. The driver does a great job and instead of flying up and down takes his time.

  237. AccuWeather.com
    ATTN: New England & NYC: We need your SNOW PICTURES on our Fan Page for our news coverage! Follow our live blog @ http://ow.ly/hxNwt

    3:30 p.m. EST Friday: The storm off the mid-Atlantic coast will start to strengthen very rapidly over the next eight hours. This will allow very heavy snow bands to slam Long Island to New England. Thunder snow is a possibility.

  238. all cars should be off the road….
    winds have started up here in billerica. around 15mph winds with gusts up to around 20mph or so. powdery snow. small snow flakes. visabilities less than a half mile. a few birds are there and there occasionally.
    street is snow covered.

  239. Snow has continued to fall. Its a very wet snow, with slushy streets, pasted trees that are shedding almost rain in the wind. Speaking of the wind, its probably sustained 15 to 20, but the occasional gust is near 30 or so.

    Tide has just made its turn. Current tide guage showing surge +1.2 ft above normal and climbing. With increasing wind the next 6 hrs, lowering pressure and some easterly component to the wind, I dont think this 10pm tide tonight is going to be pretty.

    1. And there’s the surface low coming into view, just southeast of the word city (Atlantic City) on the radar.

  243. As of 4PM, Stratham NH (a friend lives there) just west of the coastal front has 5 inches of snow so far with a temp of 18, while the temp out by the water just a few miles to the east is 28.

  244. Just went outside to measure 3.5 inches and it has been snowing since about 8:30. It started out very light and began sticking to the roads just before noon and the intensity has picked up and I would say it is coming down at a moderate pace.

    1. I believe it. Its just after low tide, however, I have to believe between 8 and midnight tonight, there will be serious issues. Just north of Marshfield, a huge storm a century ago made the North and South Rivers tidal and so, whenever there’s a storm surge, both areas that border the North and South rivers tend to have big problems.

  250. Out in Lunenburg, the temperature is falling quickly from the high earlier today of 24. Here are some recent readings:
    1:45 – 19.7
    3:00 – 19.5
    3:30 – 19.2
    4:30 – 18.9

  252. Barry Burbank is WBZ weather team are saying that most models indicate accumulating snow over by 7am. BB tweeted that 15″ between 7pm-7am. Will they be lowering snow totals? TK what do you think?

    2. This would be true since the only model indicating accumulating snow past then is the euro and to some extent the NAM. If is doesnt stall than thats what will happen. Biggest question is, at what point will we know if it actually does stall?

    3. Doubt it. I’m not sure people realize how fast these inches are going to add up tonight.

  254. first reports of thundersnow coming from franklin, mass from SNEW, radar doesnt even look look impressive there, however i am impressed of the snow that is coming down in reading because if you look at the radar, we are not even on the green side yet
    http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=BOX&product=N0R&overlay=11101111&loop=yes
    if am not mistaken, blue is always light, no matter what, but the snow outside shows more than that, maybe radar sensitivity as tk mentioned something like that

  256. Ok, Marshfield sent out a code red alert to residents who live within a 1/2 mile of the ocean to evacuate (the town suggests doing so). As the crows fly, we are within a 1/2 mile, however, my 1/4 mile is completely all marshland to the ocean. At the end of the street, our friends back yard ends and there begins the big salt marsh. On Sandy, the marsh transformed into a lake. I have seen it that bad, but have not yet seen that extra foot of water that would be needed to send water down the street.

    1. Why did they wait and are you going to evac. And I’m jealous you live that close to ocean and can see the marshes. Sighhhhh. Be safe Tom

      1. No, we’re quite ok. Those marshes really do the trick for being an amazing barrier. As you know though, the Humarock and Brant Rock areas have no barrier at all to the water, so, I hope people are making smart choices in those villages.

  257. Here it comes.

    New Bedford and Plymouth down to 1/4 mile. Snow has definitely picked up in intensity here !!

  260. LONG way to go people…

    ***** BLOG IS UPDATED *****

    No big changes, just a refreshed blog and a new place to comment.

    Head on over!

  262. Unofficially, took 3 different measurements this morning 23″ seems to be magic number. Last night went out a couple of times and shoveled about 4″ so total for my house in Quincy is 27″!!

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