Activity Increase

197 Comments

9:54PM

The pattern is becoming more active, or more correctly stated, it already has. We had Blizzard 2013, and then the mix to rain event Monday. Next comes a wave of low pressure throwing a small snowfall into southeastern New England Wednesday night and early Thursday. Following that is a weekend storm threat and down the road additional storms in the pipeline.

More immediately, areas of dense fog over the snowcover will begin to dissipate as drier air starts to flow in from the west overnight. This will lead to a nicer day Tuesday though a gusty westerly wind will be blowing as a broad low pressure area slides across southeastern Canada.

The wave of low pressure responsible for the Wednesday night and early Thursday snow threat will be an open wave disturbance moving rapidly east northeastward and passing just south of New England.

A larger scale trough will dig into the eastern US as the weekend arrives and will ignite a significant storm. The track and development of this system is a little uncertain but there remains a significant storm threat for that period.

Forecast for southeastern New England…

TONIGHT: Showers end, fog dissipates, clouds linger. Lows 32-37. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 40-45. Wind W 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows from near 15 inland valleys to the lower 20s most areas. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Bright sun morning, filtered sun as high clouds advance in the afternoon. Highs around 40. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Thickening overcast. A period of snow especially southern and eastern locations. Lows around 20. Wind light variable.

THURSDAY: Snow ends early after accumulating  from a coating to 2 inches in northwestern areas to 2-4 inches in southeastern areas (Mass Pike as a general line between the 2 areas). Increasing sunshine. Highs 35-40. Wind N to NW 10-20 MPH.

FRIDAY: Sun & clouds. Low 18. High 36.

SATURDAY: Storm threat – snow or mix develops. Low 25. High 35.

SUNDAY: Storm threat – mix or snow tapers off. Low 28. High 38.

MONDAY – PRESIDENTS DAY: Mostly sunny. Low 10. High 26.

197 thoughts on “Activity Increase”

  4. 0z NAM trended south but is still close enough to deliver a moderate snowfall along the south coast and in SE MA. It will be a close shave on what areas see accumulating snow and which do not. That demarcation will set up south of the Pike if the NAM/Euro are correct.

    Not sure what to think about the weekend storm potential yet…

    1. and they sure don’t need it. I will say though that we have lost a significant amount of snow today in the rain and 40 degree weather. Down to less than 20″ on the ground at my place after receiving 32″ in the storm.

  6. Will continue losing more of the snow pack with those temps in the low 40s. Starting to see the dirty snow now so hopefully a nice 1-2 inches to cover up the dirty snow.
    Weekend storm just say there is potential but way out in the future.

  8. 0z GFS looks pretty close to the NAM for Thursday. Mainly a coastal CT, RI, SE MA event with a light/moderate snowfall in those areas.

  9. so neww is back on…
    To all the fans of the page, we would like to apologize to you for the disruption we had, it was necessary for us to take the page down and clean house here once and for all, this page had over 25 Admin posting content to it, this content should have been monitored more strictly but it wasn’t, that’s our fault. The page has been swept clean and is in the process of adding much more qualified staffing.

    The web page we traced back to a member here with the team, Very discouraging, this member has been removed this evening. I myself apologies for not looking at that web site content closely enough, had I made myself aware such material contained misrepresenting information, I would have taken the correct measure having it removed immediately.

    We are not angry with Meteorologist Matthew Dipirro, Mr. Dipirros actions were justified, I wish Mr. Dirirro could have brought the matter to my attention in an E Mail, I don’t post to the face book page all the time since it’s agreed upon that all four share the load, so some older threads get past me, this however is not an excuse.

    I cleaned the page out and plan to move forward running the page in an orderly fashion, first let me say to the viewers, you should expect things around here to run more smoothly, second the respect level here must change immediately, there will be no gloating, no disrespect for the others that work so hard to bring you their best in this ever complicated science, if you feel anything is copied and pasted on our wall other than Guidance images, contact me immediately at newenglandweatherworks1@gmail.com, I will take care of it.

    If you feel you no longer want to support this page, that’s understandable and we respect your decision.

  10. 0z GFS still has the coastal storm on Sunday but it passes well SE of the benchmark, just grazing the Cape. Doesn’t get cranking until it’s well past us.

    The overall set up on Sunday looks great – huge digging trough in the east, right down to the Gulf of Mexico. Still plenty of time and plenty of potential – the models won’t have a better handle on this for a few more days.

  12. Sunday’s storm looks like a big swing and a MISS!!! Euro not buying it neither am I. GFS is moving south for the wed/thurs system and pretty much OTS on the sunday storm. Why do we even look at the GFS??

    1. Why do we look at the GFS? Because it’s there? That’s the best answer I can come up with at this late hour. 😉

    1. It’s funny, the GFS Ensembles show a hit, yet I can’t bring myself to buy it unless the Euro agrees with it, and it doesn’t. Though the potential is certainly there, I’m leaning more east with the eventual track.

      We’ll take a look at it again tomorrow. Have a good night. 🙂

  15. Much like TK, BZ giving same snow amounts for Thurs: 2-4″ on Cape and dusting-2″ elsewhere south of pike.

  16. Can’t see a weekend snow storm really. Suppose things could change as always. I do expect, based on my very amateur expertise, the track to change and that the models don’t know what to think yet, even the Euro. Also the storm seems to wind up after passing us though a change in the track could change the timing too. Maybe models will have a decent handle on it by Thurs but I just don’t see it happening right now.

  17. The several hours yesterday of temps and dewpoints in the mid 40s probably reduced our snow depth in half.

    Very happy with trends overnight …… For several more days, need storms to go well south or no storminess at all.

    Down to 28% without power in Marshfield, with about 80 people in local school’s shelter overnight.

    1. No, I dont think its correct. It doesnt match with the storm and wind reports. Perhaps, if this were being entered on a keyboard, they meant 68 and hit the 9 above the 6 by mistake.

  21. Well it looks like we got a break coming for a little bit. I’m pretty confident in saying no storms this week or weekend. Just sunny and in the 40s to finish the week. Most of the snow will be gone by Sunday.

  22. Morning All.

    I’m getting the feeling that the weather gun may be loaded, but right now it
    looks like it’s going to misfire. 😀

    Here is the 06Z NAM snow map for tomorrow Night/ Thursday:

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2013021206&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=072

    Waiting on 12Z run for comparison.

    06Z GFS is a “Bit Outside”. Canadian a grazing and Ukmet a bit more than a grazing, but still not much. Euro ()!@(#()*!@#*()_!@(#)(@

    Re: weekend
    Euro is a bunch of Pablum.
    Canadian is a bit scary. Gfs is OTS Ukmet is OTS or graze.

    I sense that NOT much will happen through this weekend. There is still time
    for the weekend to come into focus, but I’m betting we’re waiting on next week now.

    😀

    1. Maybe so on the weekend O.S.

      I’m leaning there too, not by much, there’s just so much time to go.

      I’ll give it a good 48 hours to come around.

  24. Very sharp cutoff to the precip though…Is it me or do models have a time figuring out the atmosphere after a big storm?

    1. OS, it show .25 to .50 all the way to Boston and .5 to .75 South Coast and Cape. Both probably on the lower end.

  26. 12Z NAM is further north, track is near benchmark but QPF does not line up with that track. I sense some changes coming in the next 12-24 hours.

  29. Level 1 snow event tomorrow night and Thursday. I don’t see snowfall exceeding 4 inches. Will see what the 12z GFS and EURO say but the NAM maybe an outlier here.
    The weekend I feel will be a grazing but plenty of time for that to change.

  30. I’ve purchased a large fan and its pointed towards the SE, out to sea……. Sorry all, I’ll turn it off in about a week. 🙂

  34. I’ve lost half of my snow in 36hrs, it’s crazy!! Stays like this for 3 or 4 days you can say goodbye to the snow

  35. This meltdown reminds me of the storm we had on this date 7 years ago. I got 2 feet of snow from that storm and by Friday of that week I saw a lot of grass. Its funny that once both storms left mild air followed for several days.

  39. It sure looks like we’re back where we were before.
    grazing with coatings and full blown OTS. 😀 😀 😀

    Still time for the weekend. Let’s see what the Euro, Canadian and ukmet say. 😀

  43. I hope we miss the storm this weekend completely, no grazing, no coating nothing. It’s a 3 day holiday weekend and I want to relax. Were still doing storm cleanup here at work. If it snows tomorrow night that’s fine. I’m sure that storm will come this weekend with my luck because I want to be off.

    1. i want some good snow on the mountains. i want snow here. until half way through march ;)… you all want snow until it is on the ground then you all want it to melt.

  45. Anyone who thinks this winter is over is in for a rude awakening. Even if the Thursday and Sunday storm threats do not materialize, we are entering into a very active weather pattern through the end of this month and possibly into early March. There will be several more storm threats.

    2. I have a feeling that the sunday storm gets us. I bet this happens, its way to early for anybody to say its going out to sea. I hope like I said it does miss us.

  47. Perhaps we will need to give the Canadian CMC model some more weight starting tomorrow at the 12z run. Just read the model has undergone a significant upgrade to improve its performance, which will go into effect tomorrow. Upgrades include:

    – 12z runs now up to hour 240
    – Resolution increased from 33km to 25km
    – Increased accuracy over North America during the winter months

    These types of upgrades are typically only done once every 10 years. Now if they can only work on the GFS next….

      1. Wow, that spells trouble if it shifts to a more off shore track. We’ll see if it still has it tomorrow after the software upgrade 🙂

  50. CapeCodWeather.Net ‏@capecodweather

    12z ECMWF model rolls in and says just flurries tomorrow night. Stark contrast to the 3-6″ being pumped out by the GFS / NAM

    2. Was the EURO ever giving the area any snow for tomorrow night/thurs? I know they say the EURO is king, but I feel like whenever the GFS and NAM agree on something but the EURO doesnt, local mets almost always go with the GFS/NAM solution. My question is, why??

      1. Last I heard coating to an inch Boston. More south shore and cape. Max amount four inches. And Sunday was ots. This was this morning on ch5 news.

        1. Right, but the EURO never showed any of this yet that is their forecast based on the GFS/NAM. I thought EURO was king?

  51. Vicki- thanks for letting me know about the food. I just put in a claim. My agent said she thought there was a deductible and thought the max payout is $500. Worth a shot.

    1. Push for the deductible to be waived or certainly lowered. I don’t know any insurance companies that have not. Word to the wise, make sure the claim is worthwhile – it will go as a claim against you on your insurance. Yes, I know, we pay through the teeth and if they have to give any back it’s like pulling their teeth. Drives me nuts.

      1. They can take a hike. Not only am I not paying a deductible I’m going to get as much as I can. Screw them.

  52. I do think we have a milder finish to feb like I have been saying, and we will have a 3rd March with under an inch or 2 of snow, will c

    1. 0 inches would be better.hey it can do what it wants because its defently almost over, not done but so close.

  54. 12z GFS and Euro way out to sea with the Sunday storm. Haven’t seen the ensembles yet.

    Euro looks quite interesting next week with a bomb over New England on Wed 2/19 and another potent storm advancing on us late week (2/21-22) with apparant coastal redevelopment.

    It’s a long ways off but at the very least, we have an active pattern upcoming where we are going to be seeing storm threats every 3-4 days for the foreseeable future.

  55. EURO is good if it key’s on something in the medium to long range, it has not always preformed well in short range. If it also waffles from solution to solution then it gives me pause as it might not be grasping the overall pattern.

  57. Charlie it will not be above average in later Feb, maybe average. I also think March looks to be colder. and BTW I have about 20 inches 🙂

  61. Ha Ha Ha …… 😀 😀 😀

    Just for fun now. Here we go! Today’s 12Z NOGAPS for SUNDAY.

    http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/nogaps/12znogaps850mbTSLPp12120.gif

    This is quite a Bomb and a bit farther East than previous run.

    So my question is: What gives with these models?

    We go from a Bomb just off shore to a completely OTS (WAY OTS) solution.
    Same input data, incredibly different results.

    Look, I know the NOGAPS sucks, and this is probably one reason why, but
    HOW can they be this different??????????

    I can see variations in track and intensity, but this is insane! 😀 😀

    1. I think it’s the fluctuation in power going to Tom’s fan but I can’t be sure quite yet. Otherwise, as you say, it makes absolutely no sense since they are in fact getting the same data in so should export at least close to each other??

  62. I have a question that was asked by someone on another blog and thought could be answered here. It’s a good question I think…

    “….is the weather patterns shifting east. Note that Europe is now experiencing the storms that the North Atlantic used to be famous for, and some of our storms are starting in the rust belt instead of the Canadian Rockies…”

    1. My Opinion, Nope. Perfectly normal.

      Not saying I don’t believe “something” is going on with our climate, just
      that I don’t believe the answer to that question is yes.

      😀

    2. Good question, Vicki.

      However, I’m going with the global warming skeptics on this one. [Please note, I am not a global warming skeptic].

      1. Europe really has experienced very few unusual weather-related events over the past decade or so other than the extreme heat in the summer of 2003 that lasted a very long time and killed a lot of people. Storms have always been a part of the Northern European weather landscape, as gales from the Atlantic lash the British Isles, the Low countries, and parts of Scandinavia. Every year, especially during the fall, these storms happen. Flooding rains in places like Poland and Italy have occurred during the past decade, but have happened many times if we go back in our history books.

      2. I’d say that North America has experienced more climate change than Europe during the past decade, both in terms of temperature (rising on average, rather dramatically) and precipitation (much less in the past few years). I do not think, however, that shifting storm patterns bear any relation to global warming. At the same time, such shifts (like the one 3 years ago that gave the Mid-Atlantic states their snowmeggedon) should not be used by global warming skeptics as proof that the earth is actually cooling. I heard that on Fox News a few years ago and almost choked on my burrito. Several snowstorms in Baltimore in 2010 prove or disprove nothing at all. A blizzard like the one we had last weekend proves or disproves nothing at all.

    3. I guess the answer might be……maybe…

      One thing is for sure though – our climate is different today than is was 10,000 years ago and how it will be 10,000 years from today.

      Life exists because of constant climate change IMHO.

      1. Agreed. People are too obsessed with things being “normal” when we have no idea what that means. The earth was once WAAAAAAY warmer…and it might get back to that again and it won’t be because of your suv. What happens if another ice age comes? They’ll be telling you to burn coal and drive suvs…HAHA.

        1. Yup….

          It’s not all about us. All of life will beat us out i the end. I don’t look at it as being fatalistic either. We’re just really lucky to have been a part of it all.

          1. True. I mean, Greenland (well parts) were once green. If it went green today, there would be no end of laws and regs to “stop it” from “melting” but it’s just part of the cycle.

    4. Wow – everyone – thanks very much for your input. It’s what I thought the answer was from listening to everyone here and Joshua in particular but wasn’t sure. May I repeat some of what you have said without using names, etc.?

      1. Certainly Vicki,

        One thing though, it’s only my opinion. If I were claiming I had the answer, I’d be a hypocrite. I don’t know the answer and never will – that much I know. Just respect the environment around you as much as possible without starving yourself and nature will play out how she intended it to IMHO.

    1. Canadian is initialized and run twice daily at 0Z and 12Z and is generally available
      shortly after Midnight for the 0Z and shortly after Noon for the 12Z.

      With the changes, not sure how it will affect the availability time.

      We’ll see tomorrow.

      😀

  67. Waiting to hear if Plymouth will have school tomorrow. Sandwich has already made a decision to close for the whole week. I bet those kids are happy to have a 2 week vacation!

    1. The call for Marshfield just came in, no school tomorrow. 1/4 of town still dark and some roads still too dangerous (downed trees, wires, etc). Goal is to start school Thursday.

      1. I noticed none of the sidewalks around my son’s school in Plymouth are plowed. His school is 100% walkers so I would hope they would do something about the sidewalks if they are going to open.

        1. Sue – they were still plowing sidewalks around the middle school in Framingham this morning and the kids were all having to walk in the street. We got a call at 6:25 am saying that all clearing had not been done so parents needed to make sure kids were safe. Want to know my response to the phone call 😉

          1. Daughter said they didn’t cancel b/c Framingham has had 4 days and after 5 they will cancel April vacation. I remember my kids having more than five several years and April vacation was never cancelled. I’m not a fan of our school superintendent.

            1. I have a feeling Plymouth will do the same and make them go to school. I don’t want them going to school in July but I also don’t want to see anyone get hurt.

            2. Does Framingham start before or after Labor Day ? This is day #6 for Marshfield and with that, we are only to June 20th, with 6 days still for a cushion before June 30th.

        2. Compared to yesterday’s announcement, today’s no school announcement came 3 hrs later (3:30pm). I believe other coastal towns, Duxbury for sure are cancelled for tomorrow, so my guess is that Plymouth will announce soon.

  68. Hadi what did you start with, I started with 20 inches and I’m down to 9 inches, still got alot of snow but alot has melted in the last 48hrs, what did you end up with from the storm 30?

    1. Framingham had what they said was jackpot – coastal arranged for that – and we got 30.5. As I said, we are down to 16.

  69. wednesday night/thursday system looks to far south light snow across southeast mass,cape and islands. 1-3 with localized 4 inch amounts expecially the outer cape and islands. less than 1 inch else where maybe isolated higher amounts south of the mass pike.
    weekend storm. i have no idea anymore. at first i was thinking rain storm for eastern mass with the rest of new england getting a mix of snow,sleet,freezing rain and rain. but now looks out to sea as well.
    the following week looks exciting

      1. Matt, don’t agree with that. Both euro and Gfs are very active next week and beyond. Several storm threats.

        1. somthing now tells me that the storms are going to go to our south and be fast movers or be inside runners 🙁

  70. I’m sorry that some are having problems with lights and cancelled school, my kids have not missed any days from this blizzard as they got out at noon friday and I told them they will be happier in June, I went to see the school, they had the school and sidewalks cleared and could have been ready for school Sunday, wrentham got 26 inches so they got alot of snow, I’d be upset that the schools were not ready, good luck

    1. You have to remember how large Framingham is and how many businesses and schools there are. I’m surprised they had school today and am not sure they should have. However, they have done an exceptional job clearing.

  71. Thank god the mild rainy foggy weather helped bc if it continued very cold the schools and power probably would be weeks for some that r not prepared

  72. 1st thing my friends say is they don’t remove the snow in the city? There from Chicago so and I said nope they leave BIG Piles hastily piled wherever it can fit, ugh off to the W Hotel 🙂

        2. b.t.w….

          Did you see that video…I forget what site…anyway, about how badly lagging in technology the American models are?

          I’ll try and see if I can find it. Might have been on wxrisk…

          be back..

    2. Hadi, what you smoking?

      “Pound us with a major Winter storm” ???

      Ok, it depicts some snow, but a major Winter Storm? 😀

      Now, that doesn’t mean things won’t change and we WILL get one.
      Just that the map you posted does not show a major Winter storm.

      😀

  78. OK, the 18Z GFS has S**T the Bed! Yes, that run stinks!
    Just a bit outside. A swing and a miss. How about a Wiff?
    How about NOTHING at all. That model is fast becoming a JOKE.
    😀

  80. I don’t think we’ll see much on 14th and maybe not that much on the weekend, but I don’t think the models have figured the track yet.

    We might have to invent a new term, a clip’easter.

  82. Perhaps when its mid April and we are looking back on winter as a whole, Nemo will stand out as an amazing anomaly in an otherwise fairly dry cold season.

  83. Running with 5 straight months of above avg temps the last 2 climatological winters ( Dec 2011-Feb 2012) and Dec 2012, Jan 2013.

    As of Feb 11, Logan’s at -4F. Today is running about 7-10F above normal, so maybe 3.7F below normal thru today.

    Perhaps there’s a chance to have a month of below normal temps during climatological winter.

  84. Sue, I’m sure you know, but just in case…..

    Per WATD, Plymouth has a 2 hr delay tomorrow with no AM pre-school or Kindergarten?

    1. Take a look at the 500MB charts from various models.

      Something is very close to happening for this weekend. Just don’t know
      if everything comes together just right. Probably not, but we’ll see. 😀

  86. Wxrisk.com
    ABOUT THE WEEKEND THREAT TO THE EAST COAST

    why I am NOT yet willing to say …”its out to sea for EVERYONE.. and give the “ALL CLEAR” signal

    WHAT you are looking at is the Tuesday 12z European model ENSEMBLE (a mean of 51 members of the European model all run at the same time as the regular European Model) .

    as these 2 maps show ( feb 16-17) the euro ensemble mean DOES have the Low closer to the coast by a SIGNIFICANT amount. In fact this euro ensemble WOULD give several inches of snow to central and eastern New England and Cape Cod could get CRUSHED.

    http://static.ak.fbcdn.net/rsrc.php/v2/yb/r/GsNJNwuI-UM.gif

      1. Nah, Philip and Tom are the true researchers.
        I just link maps and and other cool stuff I come across. 😀
        If it’s on the internet, I can usually find it. 😀

  88. I would say based on the latest 6-10/8-14 day CPC outlook, the SE ridge will soon restablish itself and take control probably for the remainder of the month. There will be precip aplenty but mild rainstorms starting perhaps by next Wednesday.

    A wild guess…no more snow opoportunities for the remainder of February??

  89. Satellite Loop of our Blizzard, courtesy of NWS:

    US National Weather Service Boston MA
    We’ve seen some pretty amazing satellite images from this weekend’s storm, but here is the full life-cycle, courtesy of GOES.

    http://www.nnvl.noaa.gov/MediaDetail2.php?MediaID=1288&MediaTypeID=3&ResourceID=104734
    NOAA Environmental Visualization Laboratory – February 8-10, 2013, Snowstorm from the GOES Satellite
    http://www.nnvl.noaa.gov
    This movie shows the imagery over New England during the historic snow event spanning February 8-10, 2013. The snowstorm in New England brought historic snowfall to many communities in New England with snow totals in excess of 2 feet. Blizzard

    1. hahahahahaha

      O.M.G. that totally made my night!

      Just in the nick of time too as I was going blind and starting to drool on myself reading Southwest Airlines latest SEC filing for a research paper.

      Nice work!!!

      Love it!!

      1. Happy to make your night. I was trying to do this the other day when you posted the Neanderthal for the GFS substitution, but
        I missed something in the process. I was able to easily do it tonight. Go figure. Must be smarter tonight! 😀 Thanks to your reminder with the Euro video reference.

        😀 😀

        1. Wait a sec, Old Salty, Jase is lower than a Neanderthal? What about Uncle Si? That’s just too funny!

  91. How can anyone say no snow for the rest of the month. Come on people.

    And 52 for Tuesdayfor school vacation week in NE. That’s a a shame for ski resorts. Not sure why anyone would be excited for that. It’s not April people!!

      1. Here’s some more:
        18Z GFS for 2/16:

        http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conusncep.php?run=2013021218&var=PCPPRSTMP_850mb&hour=324

        http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conusncep.php?run=2013021218&var=PCPPRSTMP_2m&hour=324

        Hmm some boundary layer issues??

        snowmap:

        http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2013021218&time=72&var=SNODI&hour=348

        Wait a minute, this is way too far out!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 😀 😀 😀
        And it is the 18Z GFS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!1

  92. Well we completely emptied out one fridge with one more to go in the basement. I through out everyting condiments and all, Im not taking any chances. Now that the snow has gone down bigtime, thanks to lastnights fog, starting to see more damage here unfortunately. I fenced my entire yard in two years ago with a very nice mini mesh black chain link. I noticed tonight one of the gate doors is like warped. Can’t make it out to the pool yet but I know there’s trees down back there, man. Schools back in session tomorrow. Still lots of electric trucks and tree trucks around. Driving home it was light and just amazed by all the damage. One street I passed on 53 just had trees everywhere. Some folks still without power, luckily 9pm lastnight ours came on. Still hoping for no storms this weekend.

    1. They’re gonna have games like this. Can’t afford to have many in this short season though…

      Lots of road games coming up: Just what the doctor ordered.

    1. I posted a quote from Fred Cusick on my FB page and immediately the Bruins responded by scoring 3.

      Blog is updated!

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