Weekend Outlook Plus

132 Comments

10:47PM

Hi readers! Just a quick update hitting the major points and then a fresh forecast.

A low pressure wave will bring wet weather to the region through Saturday. Overnight Friday night some snow/sleet/freezing rain will occur in north central MA into southwestern and south central NH. By morning enough mild air will be in place for all rain, periods of which will continue during the day, into the night. As precipitation ends from northwest to southeast later at night, enough cold air may catch up with it to cause some snow/sleet right at the back edge. Sunday will be a fair and cool day as high pressure builds eastward, north of the region.

Early next week we’re still watching the threat of a storm. This system, though somewhat significant, will likely be weaker than some computer models show, and enough mild air should make it a mainly rain event, though some frozen precipitation may occur at the start sometime Monday night or early Tuesday.

After the storm winds up and gets set to pull away, enough cold air on the back side may result in snow showers around Wednesday. A long stretch of dry weather begins after that.

SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…
OVERNIGHT: Snow/sleet/freezing rain north central MA into southwestern and south central NH becoming all rain. Rain elsewhere. Temperatures rising to 35-40 well northwest of Boston, 40-45 elsewhere. Wind light E.
SATURDAY: Cloudy. Periods of rain northwest of Boston and scattered showers Boston southeast. Highs 40-50 from northwest to southeast. Wind S up to 10 MPH.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with rain likely, may end as brief snow/sleet northwest to southeast late. Lows around 30. Wind shifting to NW 10-20 MPH.
SUNDAY: Sunny. Highs in the 30s. Wind NW to N 10-20 MPH and gusty.
MONDAY: Increasing clouds. PM snow showers mainly near coast. Mix to rain at night. Low 20. High 40.
TUESDAY: Cloudy. Periods of rain. Low 35. High 45.
WEDNESDAY: Variably cloudy. Snow showers likely. Low 30. High 40.
THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 20. High 35.
FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 15. High 35.

132 thoughts on “Weekend Outlook Plus”

  6. Seems like it is much colder than what was predicted 30 degrees now… Supposed to be 38 according to weather. Sleeting still in Methuen

    1. There was a coastal front in place, but when it pushed westward across the coastal plain in the late evening the temp went up as much as 10 degrees there. The mild air will take over by morning in all areas.

  7. Thanks TK.

    Do t see much hope for Tuesday but what my take away is that we are in. A stormy pattern and I certainly see a shift back to cold for the last 1/3 of the month. I see a white xmas in many location across the U.S. wether for us, just not sure yet. It wil be close call. And no charlie I am not betting in it 🙂

  8. Starting to get a feel for how the next few weeks go and it’s basically according to plan, HOWEVER some climate forcing is going to modify the warmth at times, and yes that means small-in-area colder shots right out of eastern Canada into the New England region, and a little more expansive episode deeper into the East Coast States behind next week’s storm.

    Mild/damp Saturday.
    Chilly, breezy, bright Sunday.
    Clouds roll in from the ocean underneath advancing storm clouds from the south Monday and we may see ocean-effect snow showers by afternoon then mix/rain night.
    Tuesday is wet and breezy.
    Wednesday is windy and colder with snow showers.
    Thursday-Friday are dry and chilly.
    Saturday/Sunday (December 13-14), dry and milder.
    Mainly dry, changing temps with mild beginning then a series of cold fronts knocking temps down a little at a time Monday-Friday (December 15-19).
    Colder Saturday/Sunday (December 20-21) which may lead to a snow threat with progressive East Coast system but with much colder air to work with.
    Christmas week (December 22-28), colder than normal, passing clipper systems with snow showers.
    Moderation again very late December before a turn to cold/dry for the first month of 2015.

    Don’t etch all of this in stone, but it’s my current best-guess on the weeks ahead.

  9. Thanks tk 🙂

    Good morning!!
    40 degrees!!

    Looks good through Dec, I’m liking what I’m seeing, a week ago I was reading how today will be a plow able snow, even if there is colder weather on models in 3 weeks doesn’t necessarily mean it’s coming, I’m betting that changes judging on pattern. 🙂
    Good day!!! I’m ready for snow now and it’s not coming, it better hurry up, I won’t be like this forever 🙂

    1. Actually, my reason for noting the change is based on the current pattern, and things that are going on now. A pattern doesn’t change on a switch-flip. It’s a chain reaction in the atmosphere. And some of the reactions are already beginning. Look for a West Coast ridge and at least a broad Eastern US trough by around December 20.

  10. Today’s 1st AccuWeather Trivia Quiz

    Which of the following aerosols play a role in cloud and precipitation formation?
    A. Dust
    B. Sea salt
    C. Bacteria
    D. All of the above

    Today’s 2nd AccuWeather Trivia Quiz.

    If all the Artic sea ice in the North Pole melted at once how much would the sea rise?

    A. 0 Feet
    B. 10 Feet
    C. 15 Feet
    D. 20 Feet

    Answers later today.

    1. I sense another 0 for 2 coming 🙂

      D and A. I’m reading question # 2 literally, doesnt ask about Greenland or Antarctica. 🙂 🙂 🙂

      1. Just let this sink in.

        I took it to mean the whole area including
        Greenland. Antarctica NOT in the discussion at all. But honestly if it Truly means at the North pole, that would be just a point. One
        small column of ice that would do NOTHING to the sea surface.

        These questions need to be worded more precisely.

        1. Agreed, better wording needing, because if Greenland isnt included, then I think you could melt the entire Arctic Ocean’s ice cover (thats how I interpreted the question) and there would be little sea level change because though you’d gain water, you’d lose the weight of the ice on the water, thus negating each other.

  11. D and B.
    UGH Rainorama coming early next week unless this what I feel is a low probablity happens dicussed by NWS out of Albany, NY
    WITH THIS STORM STILL SEVERAL DAYS AWAY…THERE IS
    ALSO THE POSSIBILITY OF A TRACK FURTHER EAST…WHICH COULD ALLOW A
    COLDER SETUP AND MORE SNOW. AT THIS POINT…ANYTHING IS REALLY
    POSSIBLE…FROM A WIDESPREAD RAIN STORM…TO A SNOW STORM…TO AN
    ICE STORM…

      1. Agreed. Even if it goes further east the storm itself wont be strong enough for dynamic cooling, and thats the only way to get cold air in here right now

  12. D and B
    I want snow but not on Sunday, Dec 21! Our family Christmas party is that day and I have family coming down from NH and the Cape.

  13. Good morning. Ugh and Blah, blah blah and more blah.

    I hate this kind of weather. Despise it!

    If it’s going to be mild at least have it Sunny.

    I love the track of this next event. High and Tight! Beautiful!!!

    The whole pattern blows chunks.

  14. Meanwhile, off the coast:

    Buoy A0102 – Mass. Bay/Stellwagen
    (44029) 42.52N 70.57W
    Last Updated: Dec 6 2014, 6:04 am EST
    Water Temperature: 49.1 °F (9.5 °C)

    BOSTON 16 NM East of Boston, MA
    (44013) 42.346N 70.651W
    Last Updated: Dec 6 2014, 5:50 am EST
    Sat, 06 Dec 2014 05:50:00 -0500
    Water Temperature: 47.3 °F (8.5 °C)

    Not sure why there is such a difference.

  15. Do we have some cooler air oozing down behind the 1st wave of last night.

    Temp has Dropped to 39.7 after being in the 40s????

    1. Guess so, from NWS

      …patchy dense fog this morning and afternoon…

      a frontal boundary draped across northern portions of
      connecticut, rhode island and into central massachusetts near the mass
      pike was resulting in areas of patchy dense fog near this
      boundary. the front will slowly sink southward as the day
      progresses, as will the areas of dense fog.

  16. Good Morning! Hope all is well. Did some reading of the blog last night and this morning. I couldn’t sleep. I have a mid back / rib cage area injury that makes sleeping uncomfortable. Funny thing is the more I move the better I feel.

    Anyway, I agree with most here. More wet than white and that will apply to areas far north and west of Metro Boston. I don’t think it gets particuarly warm for significant stretches over the next two weeks but it will be variably mild and cool through the next two-three weeks. I would delay the onset of a colder pattern to the 4th week of Decemebr and a likely a cold dry pattern after that and then a chance of warmer but stormy pattern late January to late February.

    ECMWF has been a bit better lately in identifying periods of potentially disturbed weather, but it continues to over amplifly systems, often with the amplification taking place too quickly with precipitation QPF far too high and then it is has incorporated one of the NAMs longtime biases of slowing systems down over the NE US and creates unrealistic backside precipitation.

    I do love watching Mets twist themselves into pretzels when they can’t rip and read the ECMWF solution or even worse when they do fly with it even though if they applied just a bit of meteorology to its output it would be clear that their are some flaws in its output.

    Happy Holidays All!

    3. Greetings JMA!
      As always, great to get your take on things. I see we are in general agreement. I have already delayed my initial thought of the onset of colder by 10 days so I’m going to hold onto the December 20 idea for the moment, and I did back down a little from the warmer pattern to a more “mild” one, but there will be cold intrusions. I believe some of this is due to the tremendous reservoir of cold air north of here basically forced by Siberian snow. I do like the idea of an almost “overreaction” to a -AO with a strongly negative NAO and a cold/dry start to 2015, then a snowier, less cold setup as it relaxes heading into February. This is why I did not forecast Boston’s snow total to be that far from normal. I think we may have a little fun waiting to see if they go above normal for the 3rd straight Winter for the first time in a very long time.

      I hope you are feeling better!

  17. Oh yes, I’m sure some of you saw a TV met (who shall remain nameless) started showing Euro snowmaps on their weathercast for the Tuesday threat back on THURSDAY. That’s all I will say. 🙂

    1. Name the culprit as I did NOT see that. It was NOT Eric, that’s all I can say.
      OR if somehow it was, I must have nodded off and missed it 😀

      1. Harvey showed a euro snowmap but i think it was a few days before the pre-thanksgiving storm when the almighty king was showing 8+” for boston.

      2. Although, given BZ’s (Barry) affinity for the euro, it wouldnt surprise me at all if it was him. But thinking logically here, the most likely culprit is Pete 😀

        1. Not sure if it was Pete . Watched him late last night and he was seeming to think rain but did mention we could get snow on back end now that I remember . Yes that’s right he called a two part storm rain number one and possibly snow number two if it has the colder air. So maybe it was, who knows doesn’t matter.

  18. Hmmm

    12Z GFS has a much more interesting track for this system. Still too close for coastal areas, but far enough off for significant Mountain snows and perhaps deep interior.

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conusncep.php?run=2014120612&var=PCPPRSTMP_2m&hour=081

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conusncep.php?run=2014120612&var=PCPPRSTMP_850mb&hour=081

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conusncep.php?run=2014120612&var=VRTHGTGRD_500mb&hour=081

    1. Euro and CMC have consistently taken it inside, so are we supposed to
      believe this GFS solution? I think not. but I wish.

  19. set up looks interesting wednesday to thursday. both the euro and gfs has it some way or another. the the euro ens shows it as well. 😀

  23. Trivia Quiz
    1. A
    2. D

    I am keeping my fingers crossed that TK’s thoughts of snow for Dec. 20-21 comes to fruition just in time for Christmas. If TK’s Winter Outlook totally verifies, the TV mets and others calling for a cold, snowy winter will have to do some soul searching in how they forecast long range and not just look at one or two aspects. I would, however, like to see a few inches above normal though (46.8″). 😀

  24. NWS dicussion out of Albany, NY saying storm system had a possiblity of tracking further east in their discussion this morning since were still a few days away
    Are we starting to see that with the 12z runs???

  26. Taunton NWS NOT buying the GFS as the prefer the EURO.

    PRECIPITATION…WITH THE PREFERRED ECMWF SOLUTION…WE ARE LOOKING AT MOSTLY RAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. WITH THE LOW MOVING AS SLOWLY AS IT IS WE ARE LOOKING AT A PROLONGED PERIOD OF RAIN WITH WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF TWO TO THREE INCHES. HOWEVER…IF THE GFS SOLUTION VERIFIES…WE ARE LOOKING AT MORE OF A SNOW SCENARIO WITH A PLOWABLE SNOWFALL ACROSS THE INTERIOR ON TUESDAY. HOWEVER…AS STATED MANY TIMES IN HERE…THE ECMWF SCENARIO IS THE PREFERRED SCENARIO AND THERE IS PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS STORM.

  28. 11 years ago today a major noreaster struck SNE. Boston ended up with one of their bigger snowfall totals for December at I belive 15 16 inches of snow. I remember Peabody, MA and some other locations on the north shore getting close to three feet of snow.

    1. Certain seasons that are favorable for many storms in the Western Pacific we tend to see a cluster of Super Typhoons. It’s such a huge basin, when the water is warm there it’s just a storm breeding ground. This happened quite a bit in the 1990s when I was doing regular tropical forecasts for the entire world.

      This year is similar to many of those years.

  32. http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&&format=CI&version=1&glossary=0&highlight=off&issuedby=GYX&product=RWR

    There are some areas in northern New England, for which today’s event is a snow event.

    Noting Lebanon, NH with moderate snow.

    Also, MT. Washington down 2F in last hour.

    Perhaps cooling in the column is beginning in central-northern New England.

    I wonder if tonight’s back edge of the precip ends as a half hour of sleet or snow and how far south and east that would occur ?

    1. Mike Wankum from 5.

      Euro looks further and brings in snow to Boston and north. Based on euro Maine gets slammed.

  34. Repost of Trivia Quiz with comment.

    Today’s 2nd AccuWeather Trivia Quiz.

    If all the Artic sea ice in the North Pole melted at once how much would the sea rise?

    COMMENT: The question, as I understood it, referred to the North Pole only.

    A. 0 Feet
    B. 10 Feet
    C. 15 Feet
    D. 20 Feet

    Answers later today.

      2. Not sure it ends up THAT far W, though cannot discount it. I am 75% sure it will track WEST of the Cape Cod Canal.

  37. I will put money on this thing being way inside and very mild for the bulk of the heaviest precipitation in central and eastern MA.

    I’m unclear on how much snow will be able to fall on the back side when the cold air does come back in. And it will come back in. The supply of cold is close by enough that a delivery of some of it is pretty certain.

  38. The 12z GFS run is actually a decent run, IMO, regarding the UPPER pattern trend. It still has a little work to do on the surface, especially after 108 hours.

    One thing it is starting to show pretty decently is the upper pattern around the time of the shift (20th/21st). Don’t pay any attention to the surface charts this far out.

    I still think the overall pattern is going to be best shown by the ECMWF for the next week or two. Then we will revisit.

  39. Upon further review… I think our backside snow is really going to just be backside scattered snow showers Wednesday with little or no accumulation.

    Don’t rule out the possibility of a trough passage sometime between late Thursday and late Friday that may toss a couple of snow squalls into the mix.

      1. We would really need the storm to sit near our latitude and wrap enough moisture around itself along with the arrival of the cold and I don’t see it quite working out that way. I see lots of dry air entrainment into a maturing system which means precipitation (regardless of type) more showery in nature.

  40. Thoughts on the 12z ECMWF…and a little more on the GFS.

    I think it may be just a TAD too far west and a little bit slow with the surface and upper features regarding the coastal storm. However, the overall idea is decent. Remember how progressive the GFS was? Today’s system moves right through, which it did have right, but that was it. It never saw the second system until about 5 days after the Euro. The same error it makes very often with seeing these things was apparent again. Granted, it has the storm now, but of course was late to the game.

    IMO, the 12z ECMWF has the medium range pattern nailed. And you can see the set-up for the transition to a colder pattern again starting to take shape near the end of the period even as we are in a mild interlude here in the Northeast.

    Western North America ridge, eastern North America broad trough by December 20. Probably not really going to get any negative NAO at first, just a shift in the orientation of the ridge/trough set-up with still fairly progressive flow. This is why I think although we do have a shot of snow as the pattern flips (and this is usually the best shot of something like that, right at the flip), we’ll probably see weaker progressive clipper-type systems for a while around Christmas.

    The flip flop will not be quite done yet as we head into the final days of 2014 and the first days of 2015.

      1. We will be under its influence for about 3 days, but as for the “meat” of it…Tuesday to early Wednesday.

  41. Anybody up for a fun contest on how much snow we get in the woodshill forcast weather area by 1/1. Or to make it easier Boston Logan maybe ? I’ll say 12 inches by than. With no evidence at all I’m just guessing this comes right before Xmas and right after.

    1. I will be happy to keep track but please repost on contest page. Time for me has been limited lately and too hard to find it here. Thanks:)

  43. Logan is a good spot since they are often a very tough spot compared to the rest of the Boston area.

    The airport observation area will get 7.3 additional inches of snow between now and midnight on New Year’s Eve. And it will NOT all be in one system. 2 or 3.

  44. I say the amount of snow Logan gets by News Year’s Day is a grand total of 2.6 Inches.
    That’s Right, ZILCH from now till then.

  45. Ryan Maue ‏@RyanMaue 2m2 minutes ago
    Don’t just look at central pressure of Northeast low. Background environmental pressure is anomalously high w/blocking ridge & sfc anticyc

    1. That should always be factored in.

      Classic example in history is the 1978 Blizzard, which even though it was a pretty decent low, what made it so intense was the greater than 1050mb high in Quebec / Ontario Canada.

  48. BTW, as a precursor to the Main event coming next week, NAM shows consistent
    ocean effect snows along Eastern MA virtually ALL day Monday.
    Looks to be mainly light and probably showery like TK alluded to, but it is
    There on the model runs. 😀

    Also worth noting, it indicated the “possibility” of some front end snow with
    the main event. 😀

  51. Ryan Maue ‏@RyanMaue 30m30 minutes ago
    As ECMWF upgrades its model in the next 1-2 months, the skill gap between it & everyone else will expand #king

  52. Cold rain 5 days out of 7 is not my cup of tea. Today was Dublin miserable. Tomorrow will be fine, but then 4 days of Seattle (well, worse) crap. Yes, this weather’s got the Debbie Downer in me going. If anyone dares say we’re still in a “drought” I’ll go bonkers.

    Got my Christmas tree in the rain today. Tried to feel seasonal by putting on December by George Winston (wonderful track) while decorating. But, rain won’t do it for me.

    I hope TK is right about the winter reverting to form around the 20th-25th. Something tells me what we’re seeing now is a preview of what we’ll often have to endure this winter.

    1. Not Debbie downer this time, just a realist I’m Afraid.

      This weather SUCKS!!!

      You “may” get a brief period of sleet and/or snow late tonight, perhaps
      an hour to 2 or 3 tops.

  55. Not sure I posted this, but this is the response I got from the people at ECMWF when I challenged them on their model.

    Dear XXXX

    Thank you for your feedback. We are carefully monitoring the forecast every day and we have seen some problematic forecasts during the last year over North America. However, we do currently not suspect them to be related to the model upgrade last year. The problem in many of the cases have been related to snow cover, which leads to large uncertainties for the surface temperature.

    About the forecast for this week you mentioned, I suppose your main interest is the cyclone on Wednesday-Thursday. One should be aware that a forecast 5-6 days in advance is often uncertain and one should not only use the high-resolution forecast but also the ensemble forecast to account for the uncertainties.

    Best Regards,

    Petra.
    on behalf of Linus Magnusson, Analyst on duty

  56. Answer to Today’s AccuWeather Trivia Quizzes.

    Which of the following aerosols play a role in cloud and precipitation formation?
    A. Dust
    B. Sea salt
    C. Bacteria
    D. All of the above

    The answer is D.

    If all the Artic sea ice in the North Pole melted at once how much would the sea rise?

    A. 0 Feet
    B. 10 Feet
    C. 15 Feet
    D. 20 Feet

    The answer is A.

    1. Hmmmmm. Someone got both of these right. Not I. But I can tell you that if the North Pole ice melted it would create a significant amount of problems for Santa.

        1. Ah ha. I had to read about it and I knew anyone who can fly the world in one night was a very smart man. It said if Antarctica melted it would make a difference because it has more ice and comparatively the North Pole does not have much. I am paraphrasing. I can only assume Santa knew this so picked the North Pole.

          On a serious note….because perhaps I was not serious before or was I …..I love when learn from your quizzes.

  57. I thought I had posted but there id weather advisory out for rain changing to snow with icy conditions

  59. read a discusion that said clipper system in great lakes is transporting warmer air aloft along east coast making it tougher to snow here. Of course!!

  60. It’s 37 now in boston than stays at 36 till 4am for a very brief time. Has 90% chance of snow at 2am than rain at 3am than back to snow good grief !!!!!

  63. Good evening!! I find it kinda crazy that the models actually show temps rising throughout this coming week and could be around 50 degrees this time next week. Big game TOMMORROW, go patriots!!

    2. I like it too and was wondering why no one mentioned it. But then I didn’t mention it either :). It is a warm shade of green.

  66. Good morning!! 34.4 degrees heading out

    A lot of football watching today, highs only in the mid 30’s, that is about 10 degrees below average for the date, be sure to bundle up while u head out. Good day!! Patriots game 8:30 🙂

  67. I will be defintelty watching football today and hoping Seattle could beat Philadelphia so Dallas is tied with them going into the rematch and Tampa Bay goes into Detroit and wins so the Cowboys would have one of those wild card spots with three games left.

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