Thursday Forecast Update

64 Comments

7:40AM
4:38PM update to tweak late day/evening and also the wording in the 6-10 day forecast.

DAYS 1-5…
LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING: Areas of smoke aloft, otherwise mostly clear except some clouds and an isolated shower or thunderstorm near the South Coast. Temperatures slowly fall through 80s except 70s South Coast. Wind SW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
TONIGHT: Mostly clear to partly cloudy. Lows upper 50s to middle 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
FRIDAY: Sunny morning. Partly cloudy afternoon. Highs 78-85. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.
SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy with showers morning. Partly cloudy afternoon. Lows 60-67. Highs 75-82.
SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows in the 50s. Highs in the 70s.
MONDAY: Increasing clouds. Showers late. Lows in the 50s. Highs in the 70s.

DAYS 6-10 (JUNE 16-20)…
A few shower and thunderstorm threats as disturbances traverse the jet stream over the top of a ridge of high pressure centered in the east central US. Timing of shower/thunderstorm threats suspect but target June 16 and 19 at this time. Temperatures near to above normal. Rainfall near to below normal.

DAYS 11-15 (JUNE 21-25)…
Similar pattern remains locked in for this period as well. Temperatures near to above normal. Rainfall below normal.

64 thoughts on “Thursday Forecast Update”

  5. The HRRR appears to want to place the front at about Boston in or near
    the 1PM time frame. It does show some convection prior to the front arrival, but
    nothing serious. I’m guessing it pretty much remains dry with perhaps a spot shower
    here or there. We shall see.

    1. NWS re: Possible Convection

      0 TO 6 KM SHEAR AND
      INSTABILITY WILL BE IMPRESSIVE OUT AHEAD OF COLD FRONT…BUT LACK OF
      SHORTWAVE/HEIGHT FALLS AND MID LEVEL DRY AIR SHOULD BE SIGNIFICANT
      LIMITING FACTORS. THEREFORE…AREAL COVERAGE OF ACTIVITY THAT
      DEVELOPS IN OUR REGION SHOULD BE LIMITED.

      In Other words, it will remain DRY. 😀

  8. Greetings to one and all, not a lot going on when the winter is over, it is over isn’t it? I was wondering about Saturday and where the showers might be happening. If anyone has some advanced information I would be grateful for sure. Have a wonderful weekend.

    Cheerio, Merlin

    1. As it stands now, all areas are susceptible in the morning with only the S Coast seeing any post – noon activity.

  9. JJ – Do you know why the seniors are playing at Belmont CC? Mac has played in tons of tournaments there. I spent a lot of time at the pool there in my youth although we belonged to Oakley. Belmont is a phenomenal course.

    1. Some sort of charity event. I have heard about it, but don’t have many details.
      They have teams where a local celebrity is on a team with 2 Champions Tour players. I “think” it is ONLY around the greens with chipping and putting.

        2. Yes that is where they used to play. I couldn’t tell you
          if they still do.

          I have been to 2 professional golf events.

          Once at Sutton years ago when Jack was playing. Saw him up close.

          And once in 1988 at the Country Club in Brookline, 1998.
          Actually twice there as I went on Sunday and also saw the play off with Curtis Strange on Monday.

          1. Son was a Ouimet scholar so was invited to caddy at the Deutsche Bank pro-am pre-tournament tournament years ago. He missed caddying for Freddie Couples by one. That is probably a good thing because I would have tried to hide in his golf bag. I cannot remember who he had …Jim something I think. The pros were amazingly fun to caddy for.

      2. A side story that has nothing to do with weather. Mac took my dad and our son and son’s friend to Nashawtuc to watch the tour one year. My dad was getting senior outspoken by then (not that he wasn’t already). Bob Murphy hit a glorious tee shot. My dad called out “Hey Bob why don’t you normally hit that well?” Mac, son and son’s friend just about literally crawled under their chairs when Murphy slowly handed his club to his caddy, walked over to my dad and quietly said “I do.”

        Needless to say, Mac never did take my dad to another tournament 🙂

  10. It must be smoky out, because its very hazy and the sun is dim, but I don’t think its from clouds ….

    If that’s true, I wonder if that might also hold back on thunderstorms ….

    1. My eyes have been itchy and sore for a couple of days. I know they said the smoke from the Canadian fires is not a health threat but I can’t help wonder if that is what is causing my eyes to sting.

    2. That’s not what is holding back convection. There is plenty of sunshine for that.
      Too dry above. Nothing shaking as of yet. Perhaps South of here later. Maybe but probably not even there. 😀

  13. 12Z NAM instability parameters are through the Roof For South of Boston
    between now and about 5PM, so something could fire later.

  19. The model forecast is fine. But having instability and not enough moisture to do anything with it is the problem. The “humidity” is very shallow. The front is already into northern RI/CT so areas south of that front may pop a quick shower/storm as it presses southward through evening. Forget it elsewhere.

    Some of the hazy look to the air and sky is from smoke, not true haze, so that’s a bit deceiving visually.

  20. Made a minor tweak to the wording of late today/evening. Earlier edition should have been carrying the chance of a shower or t-storm south of the Pike but somehow that got dropped in the edit. Thankfully none have occurred thus far. Still a slight risk near the South Coast.

    Also fine-tuned the 6-10 slightly. No major changes there.

      1. The atmosphere was unstable enough that if the moisture was great enough to fire storms, they’d have been severe or caused flash flooding in small areas and not been of any benefit.

  21. Ahhhhh he says as the dew point continues to drop!! 😀
    I just got a chill wind and sneezed my head off. Yup it’s dropping and pretty quickly
    as well.

    1. Nice ….. still rather humid down here, with dewpoints running 68F to 70F.

      Couple of dark cumulus clouds around, especially the southern half of the sky.

      1. Hi Tom: question how is Veronica sweet cakes. I ordered a cake from there today for my wife’s 50th next week. Should I order one for you as well Vicki .

        1. That’s where oldest got her wedding cake. Girls still drive there to get kids bday cakes. It is a bit sweet for Mac and me but they love it. I am curious to see what Tom thinks.

        2. Happy Birthday to your wife John.

          I’ve always enjoyed their cakes and go there for all our birthdays. It always seems to be busy. They do charge a decent amount, but I think their cake is pretty good !!

          1. Thanks Tom it’s next week and I think it’s the same day as sombody else here , who could that be .$ 20 bucks Tom not bad.

            1. Hehe. Best birthday date of the year. You are special to remember. Please wish your wife a special day.

            2. That for a small cake and closer to $30 for a decent size circular cake that will feed 6-10 people and still have a bit leftover.

  23. Taunton NWS radar must be running in sensitive mode.

    Light returns strung out west to east out into the ocean, just north of Marshfield.

    That dry front hasnt made it here yet, it is still humid !! Many A/C’s are humming down here.

    1. Oh, I meant to connect those two thoughts.

      I’m thinking that radar signature I tried to describe above might be the front.

  24. Two fairly impressive cumulus clouds overhead.

    After 8pm, could a shower still pop at this late hour ? How many times it seems something develops just offshore ……

  25. This was never going to be a front that delivered a refreshing blast of air.

    Think of it as an ocean wave that has spent its energy and is now a ripple in 1 inch of water…

      1. Charlie I am always thankful I live in New England and specifically the Boston area….doesn’t get much better. Glad to see you Feel the same.

  27. I probably asked this before and apolgize if I did. Grandson has an 8th bday Saturday. I’m thinking of getting him a telescope but want to keep it around $100. I was looking at the Orion spaceprobe3. Does anyone have any experience or suggestions. Thank you.

  28. Daughter in Uxbridge didn’t know about fire smoke. She mentioned today that you couldn’t even see down her street. Even 6 yr old grandaughter commented on it. It wasn’t that bad here. I wonder if it is because they are in a valley

  29. Tonight (Friday night) looks like quite a mild to warm night.

    Wonder if Logan stays above 70F ?

    Cloudy in Marshfield. Sometime in the last 8 to 10 hrs, the dewpoint did fall from 70F to 57F.

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