Monday Forecast

48 Comments

7:37AM

DAYS 1-5 (DECEMBER 7-11)…
High pressure weakly hangs on today with fair and mild weather. Low pressure south of the region on Tuesday will result in lots of clouds and maybe a little rain near the South Coast and Cape Cod. Cloudiness lingers Wednesday between that and a weak system approaching from the west, which may bring a few rain showers but otherwise continue the theme of more cloudiness during Thursday. Improvement is expected Friday as that system moves away and high pressure moves in.
TODAY: Partly sunny. Highs in the 50s. Wind light variable.
TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows in the 30s. Wind light E.
TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of a light rain for a while mainly South Coast / Cape Cod. Highs in the 40s.
WEDNESDAY: Variably cloudy. Lows in the 30s. Highs in the 40s.
THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Possible rain showers. Lows in the 30s. Highs 45-55.
FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Lows 25-35. Highs in the 40s.

DAYS 6-10 (DECEMBER 12-16)…
Fair and mild for the weekend of December 12-13. Rain shower risk December 14. Fair and cooler December 15-16.

DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 17-21)…
Rain shower threat December 17 and rain/snow shower threat around December 19. Mild regime continues but colder air may arrive December 20-21 behind the second system.

48 thoughts on “Monday Forecast”

      1. Not surprised. The only time I have some adjusting to do is when Christmas day is warm but then being outside for a walk or playing with the kids is a whole new treat…..as long as it doesn’t happen every year. Don’t know how folks in warmer climates do that 🙂

  5. The EURO at hrs 168 and 192, if the trend holds, makes me wonder if a severe weather event is possible.

    At hr 168, you have a strong 850 mb jet in the southern Mississippi Valley. Just to its west, aloft at 500 mb looks to be a fairly potent 540 dm low. And you have a strengthening surface low pressure area. How do I know it’s strengthening …..

    Because at hr 192, there’s a very intense low traveling up the St Lawrence River Valley. The 850 mb wind field at that point is impressive over a large area.

    Perhaps a low top line of convection even into New England ??

    The EURO has been consistent on this for a few days now, interested to see if this trend continues ……

    1. Interesting. Frankly, the outlook around these parts has looked so
      poorly, that I only give the maps a cursory look. Nice Catch Tom. Perhaps
      you are onto something.

      If it pans out, we’ll award you the WHW Gold Star!

  6. I have noticed sometimes when you get a strong low pressure system it COULD change the pattern a bit. Not saying it will happen this time but you never know.
    Last time I remember a warning for severe weather in December in the early part of December in 2006 when there was a tornado warning just north of me. Thankfully no tornado touched down that day.

    1. Thank you JJ. Pretty bold statement by the HenMaster there!!

      Wouldn’t that be something.

      Of course, we don’t see anyone else on board with this thinking yet, do we?
      It will be interesting to have a look at Dr. Cohen’s next blog update to see
      if he joins the band wagon.

      I am quite certain that TK thinks dear ole Henry has had a “Senior” moment. 😀

  9. I am not betting the house on that statement.
    I still believe were going to have a big snow event in February where a good chunk of what were going to have for snowfall this winter will happen with that storm.

  10. I hope the steelers beat both the bronco’s and the Bengals and that the bengals beat the bronco’s 😉

  11. My mom and stepfather ended up stuck in Florida when the Presidents Day storm happened in 2003.
    Patriots enter Thanksgiving weekend as one seed now if the season ended today they would be the 3 seed hosting a wild card game.

  12. Tom… We should indeed watch that system you spoke of above. No surprise to me that you picked that out.

  13. Thanks tk,, thinking of going to the beach this weekend, especially if temps get up into the mid 60’s like some models are hinting at. Still don’t see any real cold air for many weeks IMO. Enjoy the beautiful week ahead. 🙂

    1. It’s mild, and will likely remain so for awhile. But, I’m very skeptical about mid-60s in mid December. Perhaps for a fleeting moment, but I think almost all of our mild weather comes in the form of 50s.

  14. Thank you, TK, as always.

    You reminded me of December 2001, which was a very warm month. However, it got very cold for a 3 day period around the 20th. It was windy and relatively bitter as I recall.

    2001-2002 was not a cold winter. Yet, besides the cold snap I just alluded to we also had the famous playoff game in the snow against the Raiders in January. And, the day of the Patriots parade (early February) was very chilly. I remember it well because I went over to Government Center/Fanueil Hall to see the end of the parade.

  15. Well the 12z EURO seemed to hold serve on a strong system 7 days out, while the 12z and 18z GFS have a weaker system.

    I’m thinking its a case of phasing (EURO) vs no phasing (GFS).

    We’ll see if one trends towards the other in the next 24 to 48 hrs …..

  16. Dr. Cohen thinks it will get colder
    Around these parts starting in January.
    He still is hedging a bit due to El Nino
    We shall see.

  17. Latest first snowfall for Boston = 1/13/2000.

    Pete says that this date could be challenged.

    TK – Do you agree at this point? Do we go snowless (not even a flurry) for December?

    1. No.

      Pete’s a great guy, but I think as a weather forecaster it’s important to be cautious rather than to make unwarranted bold statements. It’s December 7th. It’s El Nino. It’s mild. It’s forecast to stay that way for a while. That is, the general set-up is for a mild regime. But, there is very little certainty about the specifics, from day to day, regarding what’s going to happen, say, after December 18th. Will it generally be mild? Yes, but we can say that about January 2016, too, and maybe the entire upcoming winter. That does not in any way rule out snow. In fact, it’s absurd to suggest it will rule out snow. As I mentioned above, December 2001 was very warm. Yet, we had a cold snap. And we had some snow in SNE. In some parts, plenty of snow.

  18. Geez I couldn’t be happier, it doesn’t look like any snow for the rest of December,,, at least!!! 🙂

    1. That was actually there the other day.
      Interesting, but I doubt it would happen. Sure would be nice
      to have a White Christmas. We shall see.

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