Wednesday Forecast

202 Comments

7:32AM

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 10-14)…
Low pressure trough slowly traverses the Northeast today and Thursday. The “mild” side of this trough is cold enough to support snow and a disturbance will kick off some areas of very light to light snow this morning and then scattered snow showers and squalls this afternoon. Conditions may be quite variable, especially this afternoon around snow showers, some of which will cause quick accumulation and reduced visibility. Use caution if traveling. As cold air, the first of a 1-2 Arctic punch, flows in on Thursday from the northwest, additional snow showers/squalls are possible but they will be more isolated. Another system will dive through the region late Friday and early Saturday with an additional threat of a period of light snow followed by snow showers/squalls as another system passes just south of the region and tries to toss some steadier snow briefly into the region, especially southern areas. The coldest of the air, accompanied by wind, comes in Saturday and lingers through Sunday.
TODAY: Mainly cloudy. Areas of very light to light snow this morning. Scattered snow showers and squalls this afternoon. Accumulations generally under 1 inch but isolated areas of 1 inch or more may occur. Highs 29-36. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 18-25. Wind light W.
THURSDAY: Variably cloudy. Isolated snow showers and snow squalls. Highs 25-32. Wind W to NW 10-20 MPH and gusty.
FRIDAY: Sun followed by clouds. Chance of light snow mainly at night. Lows 15-22. Highs 25-32.
SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of snow early especially southern areas. Risk of snow squalls. Temperatures fall through the 20s. Very windy.
SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows -10 to -3 interior, -2 to +5 coast and Cape Cod. Highs 5-12. Windy.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 15-19)…
Fair and less cold Presidents Day February 15. Chance of snow/mix/rain February 16 as a system from the west passes. Chance of snow showers and turning colder February 17. Fair and cold February 18-19.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 20-24)…Fair and milder February 20-21. A milder but unsettled period of weather expected February 22-24.

202 thoughts on “Wednesday Forecast”

    1. Odd too because the sun is trying to poke out so it doesn’t “feel” like snow but it’s snowing.

      1. I was there. It was what I like to call “half a dusting”. Visibility from hilltop was almost 10 miles so very very light snow from thin overcast.

        1. Yeah feather dusting is another I have heard. Well it’s enough to white the roof so that’s notable to me.

          1. I think the roof will survive. 😉 The feathers week be melted before the squalls are around. 🙂

    2. Ha looking at radar (I know I joke about this with you TK) but here comes a blob with Woburn in the bullseye. I am telling you man this city attracts snow.

  5. Awoke to snow falling. When I went to my car there was enough to have to brush it off.
    Noticed sun shining through the clouds on the way in. Clouds really thinning.
    Still snowing very very lightly.

    HRRR hints at a line of squalls this PM. We shall see.

    Re: Saturday AM
    Getting awfully close to getting some snow in here. Will continue to monitor

    re: The 17th
    Solutions widely vary. Throw a dart.
    Could be a wind swept rain and it could be a blinding snow storm and it could be
    at total swing and a miss.

    Euro has a real inside runner, almost a cutter. CMC has a biggie come right
    over us. GFs looks mostly OTS

  6. Thanks, TK! And I know it’s two weeks away so kind of silly to be asking BUT I’ve been burned by weather before when traveling. I’m going down to FL on the 24th. This unsettled weather you’re seeing in that time period, are we talking a chance for a bigger (snow) storm?

      1. Thanks TK and Vicki!

        Looks like the sun is trying to make an appearance here in Norwell! I can see it through the one window we have here in this entire office.

        1. A tad brighter in Framingham but still light, ultra fine snow. Enough to cover the trees with a bright coating.

          I’m laughing at your one window comment. I am also a huge fan of your area. My heart has a home in Humarock. Unfortunately, the rest of me can only visit once a year if lucky.

          1. *light coating

            and re-reading that…the visual from the last paragraph leaves a lot to be desired so hope you get my meaning 🙂

  7. CMC is further east and gives us a pretty good thumping (6-8) up front before it turns to rain….not sure what to make of the GFS, the precip field looks confined to a front with no real western edge to speak of.

    1. Yup. We shall see what develops. That one is up in the air for sure.

      Snow has stopped here and it is getting brighter still, enough so, sun is casting
      a shadow. 😀

    2. Of all the models, the ECMWF seems to be the most schizophrenic right now. What are you seeing in the overall pattern that leads you to favor a more westerly track? Not questioning you, just looking to learn

      1. Original GFS idea was west then it lost it. Many times in the past I have seen this happen and then the GFS will come back to its original idea.

  12. why should we trust the euro?? It has not been good this year. the nam has honestly been on board with this pattern than the other models. I am hesitant to say do not trust the euro but what has it done this year to warrant its usual respect??

    1. NAM doesn’t go out far enough for that yet. It still suck outside 48 hours anyway. 🙂

      The key this winter has been using experience to choose models or blends. They have all been quite inconsistent.

    1. If that thing goes too far east then 500mb goes negative fast and low stays inland. Don’t nudge it too far. 😉

      1. It’s an elongated weak trough axis. This was the original basis for my snow forecast today made on Sunday and Monday. Models did well with the idea. The details were iffy.

  17. I’m not going to be home much today but when I have a chance I need to do some ensemble investigation. Big clues there. Have to get my handy dandy notebook. 😉

  18. Encouraging any lurkers out there to toss a comment on here. You don’t need to use your real name .. just a valid email and any username as long as it’s in good taste. 🙂

    You don’t need to know alot about weather and the terms to chat about it and learn more. 🙂

    2. JJ, that huge area of snow shown over the Atlantic is all ocean effect with the frigid arctic air moving across the warmer ocean waters. Euro has that as well. Don’t think we will see any movement with that on shore.

  21. Lightly snowing here in Waltham.

    I want to thank all of you for commenting on this site. I have been reading it since just after Blizzard Nemo. I love the banter and the information you provide.

    1. Hi Waltham Snow and also welcome to the family.

      I love the new and not recently seen names that are popping up today!

  23. Hello! I’ve been reading this blog for at least two years. Keith in Hingham told me about it. I’ve spent the last two winters here almost daily 🙂 I’m in CT roughly 4 miles south of the E. Longmeadow rotary, about 1.5mi south of the prison.

    Currently over here it’s still snowing lightly @ 11am. We had an inch or less overnight. I actually saw the sun a couple of times this morning.

    I’m here for the weather like everyone else. TK you have a great blog. I tend to ignore any drama and stick to the weather discussions. I like to learn. Keep up the good work and I will show up here when I can contribute something.

  25. Is it possible that this mornings persistent patchy light snow decreases the shot of afternoon snow squalls ………… much like in the warm season, when clouds and even morning rain can decrease instability and pm convection chances ????

  27. It’s not smart to side with the GFS and to not listen to TK, saying the EURO is preferred.

    But, I would think the EURO solution requires phasing and we know how much separate stream flow we have seen this winter.

    1. I never said I was siding with anything. Simply showing the output.

      I am not in any camp. Just observing right now.

      I’d rather the GFS solution, that’s for sure.

  28. Getting a heavier burst of snow in Manchester CT right now. Big flakes.

    Had about an inch of snow this morning when I left the house. Slow going on the roads and buses were running 20 min late. It doesn’t take much….

  29. Regarding the 0z Euro, yes, it still shows a coastal hugger for the Tuesday storm but it took a decided tick to the east. The focus of the heavy snow expanded further east into NW CT, the Berkshires and Vermont where it delivered 2-3 feet of snow in the next 10 days. It would not take much to shift this further east like the GFS is showing, especially considering we are still 6 days out.

    1. With our luck, not going to happen. That big cold high will slip East and
      allow the storm to go right up the Hudson. 😀

  30. I am not in any camp either, I just know that the model that first showed the friday system a week before anything else was the gfs yes it then sent it out to sea, just to bring it back. Euro was out to lunch till about 48 hours from not having it to out to sea but never showed it effecting us. my point, I am not trusting any model, just that what I thought would happen is now on the gfs.

  31. This was the run total snow map from the 0z Euro for the next 10 days:
    http://i.imgur.com/tJrbHug.jpg

    Not all this is from the Tuesday storm; it actually has a second coastal storm in the Thurs night/Fri timeframe next week as well.

    Huge shot in the arm for the ski areas of VT if this verifies, however we all know the Euro’s tendency to over-amplify these things.

  36. We had some very light on and off snow earlier w/some peeks of sun. Like some people have said, it was really pretty w/the light snow falling w/the sun out – kind of hazy, like a summer day. I think the haze might have been some heavier snow off in the distance.

  37. Post card day here. White everywhere with flakes falling all day. No accumulation except on the biggest tree branches and the pine trees in the woods behind the house.

    While it is relatively quiet, I thought I’d tell my WHW family that within a month or two, I’ll be reporting from Sutton. We sign the purchase and sale today and hopefully get our house on the market by end of week. It is a bittersweet move as there are nearly 37 years of memories here so leaving will be more than sad, but it is the right move. Sutton is more my type of town and it is close to daughter and family in Uxbridge.

      1. Thank you, all.

        MassBay – what a special comment. I’m not being very courageous a lot of the time but with the support of family and friends (WHW very much among my list of friends), I know it will be ok.

  38. The GFS and CMC do look very similar. What is odd is the way the northern stream energy comes through first with some snow and then the southern stream energy takes over, so it doesn’t look like the end up phasing or just becomes elongated with the southern stream taking over. When the southern stream energy rides up the coast, it’s a warm core system hence the precip trouble even with good positioning of the low.

  39. Does anyone have a snow map for the timeframe of 96 hrs on the 12z GFS ?

    It has this interesting feature a few hundred miles east of Boston and when I look at the 850 mb winds, it appears there might be convergence along the immediate Massachusetts east coastline, all while arctic air pours in. Looks like a Cape Cod snow squall bonanza.

      1. I knew what you meant since I saw it my self on the euro It shows up on the gfs but much weaker and further north.

  40. 12Z Euro blows chunks for the 17th. INSIDE Runner with a blow torch of a warm
    layer at 850mb out ahead of it. PUTRID PUTRID PUTRID.
    Even 300 mb goes negative tilt in the WRONG location for use. BIG Storm
    LOADED with moisture! LOADED.

      1. that is what Tk was telling us up above if the high moved to far east but in this case not there at all.

  41. Huge model divergence on this one….We’ll probably have to wait until the end of the weekend when some of the short range models can get it into range

  42. Sure doesn’t look like any snow squalls and/or heavy snow showers this Afternoon.
    Last batch about to move through and it is LIGHT at the moment. 😀

    1. Fascinating. He delivers a nice video, that’s for sure. Love watching his videos.

      We shall see. Something to look for.

  44. Eric F posted map on FB and said:

    Cape Cod is turning into New England’s snow capital. Also more snow on the Cape than in Binghamton, Cleveland, or Detroit this winter.

  45. I really hope today’s 12z euro doesn’t come to fruition. That would be huge blow to the ski resorts right in the middle of Feb school vacation week. Anyone know if the ensembles agree with the op?

        1. I do, my mom and most of my family is still up in Amsterdam, NY. Havent been up there since xmas though. They have only had 6″ of snow up there the entire year thus far…insane.

          Have you been back recently?

          1. That’s crazy low snow totals!

            I was up in Albany during the fall visiting college friends. I usually try and get up there 3 or 4 times a year. I’d love to live up there but no jobs unfortunately.

  46. That 3 feet of snow in central VT on the 0z Euro went down to 3 inches on the 12z………along with 3″ of rain. And the end of the run was very warm. We will see what the ensembles say in a bit.

  47. Its the CMC/GFS vs the Euro/UKMET/JMA for next week’s storm.

    FWIW, 6 of the GFS ensemble members hit us pretty good.

    1. Same. I love that combination. A little heavier overcast most areas now with the snow showers coming through.

    2. Welcome. Where is FoxHill School?
      Ah and a quick Google reveals Burlington.
      Again, Welcome and please post.

    3. Who left Burlington on the blog! Just kidding…welcome! I work with a few people from the Fox Hill area and almost moved there myself at one point.

    1. This is the most model divergent year I can remember.
      Usually there was at least some similarity. No one expects them to be
      exactly the same, but at least show the same features in reasonable
      proximity to each other.

  54. Next line of snow showers looks to be falling apart. IF it were summer, I’d say
    it has lost day time heating. 😀

  55. Re: Bernie video.
    Yes I buy it. That’s why I had possible squalls in Saturday’s forecast for the morning.

    Heading out to Dave & Busters for a while! I’ll check in mobile later. 😀

  57. We have Gods Fingernail in the sky tonight. But even more exact p, we have a Cheshire (cat) moon. It is spectacular.

        1. Thank you. Listening to Silvard and watching the video is as relaxing as it gets.

          I’ve seen that on inland bodies of water but never on the ocean. Is it only artic sea smoke when on the ocean?

  60. Able to run the AC when I got home…never thought I would be using it for heat this late in the season. This might be it for the week though…especially the weekend. Time to support Big Oil ha.

  62. I wonder with the extremely cold temperatures and wind chills forecasted for this weekend that our homes (wooden frames) will be banging, creaking and rockin’ and rollin’ again like they did about a year ago.

    Do you remember that?

  65. Capt fantastic the booms are somerging, aren’t they? our roof was cracking a few weeks ago too. And I bet we have loud booms coming up.

  66. can i say this, not weather related but the 90s kid in me is coming out with all these movies coming out with the new tech

  69. Look at the state which el-nino is and come back to us. There might be a week possibly but remember all the models been struggling past 3 days, so you can get all excited for your precious 40s and 50s. but it is not going to last long

    1. You see it on guidance that fails to pick up on cold returning to eastern Canada and US Northeast.

  71. Possibly Middle or most likely end of March if your looking for a warmer pattern change temperature wise. It’s coming, just have to wait a bit.

  73. Wow ….. It’s not snow, but what explosive deepening of that storm during its passage through New England the middle of next week on the 00z GFS. Down to 970 mb …….

  74. Which companies are starting on a Monday holiday in the middle of February? All of their New England lawn care schedule calendars are blank until March. Last year your first visits were after March 16, but that made sense because of the immense snowcover from February.

    I’m just curious because I give forecast info to 3 lawn care providers up here and none of them start in February any year, no matter what the weather.

    1. honestly, think he is just making things up, never backs up anything he says.. even when people say prove it.

Comments are closed.