Friday Forecast

100 Comments

7:32AM

DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 2-6)…
Cooler and drier air has arrived but it will be unstable enough today for some diurnal clouds to develop and possibly produce a few showers. Protective high pressure then sets up shop for the early part of the Labor Day Weekend and tries to hold against Hermine, which made landfall overnight as a category one hurricane in northwestern Florida. Hermine will traverse the Southeast today, the center just inland from the coast, then emerge over water this weekend where it will come to a halt and wobble around to the south of New England. The position, relative to New England, will determine the weather here. I am more strongly leaning toward a position far enough south to keep most rain south of the region, with just some chance of weakening rain areas migrating northward into southern areas Sunday and/or Monday. Will continue to refine this forecast. Hermine may remain just to the south through Tuesday as well.
TODAY: Partly cloudy. Isolated showers. Highs 72-79. Wind N 5-15 MPH with higher gusts.
TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 47-57, coolest interior valleys, mildest urban areas. Wind light N.
SATURDAY: Sunshine filtered at times by high clouds. Highs 72-82, coolest coast. Wind light variable becoming E 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY: Variably cloudy. Risk of rain far southern areas mainly at night. Lows 58-65. Highs 70-80, coolest coastal areas.
MONDAY – LABOR DAY: Variably cloudy. Risk of rain southern areas. Lows 58-65. Highs 68-77, coolest South Coast.
TUESDAY: Variably cloudy. Risk of rain southern areas. Lows 58-65. Highs 68-77, coolest South Coast.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 7-11)…
Watch the early period for a shower risk from both a tropical system from the south and a front from the west, then a drying trend with temperatures mostly above normal.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 12-16)…
Mostly dry weather. Temperatures above normal.

100 thoughts on “Friday Forecast”

  4. Good morning and thank you TK for the update.

    You had stated: ” I am more strongly leaning toward a position far enough south to keep most rain south of the region, with just some chance of weakening rain areas migrating northward into southern areas Sunday and/or Monday.”

    I think truer words were never spoken. The more I see, the more I think Hermine
    will be nothing but a big tease for SNE regarding rain chances.

    As I said before, a perfect Cap to this unbelievably DRY Summer. PATHETIC!

    We can’t buy rain for this area.

  9. DT is putting all his eggs in the euro basket yet again. When is he gonna learn that just like the GFS, the euro also has a bias. And he fails time and time again to make the correction

  11. Just following up on what TK and Sak were talking about yesterday re: drought. I had 4.47″ for the month of August. Average for Worcester in August is ~3.8″. So I’m above avg for last month. Still below avg for the year for sure, but the severity of the deficit is localized. We seem to get a little more rain out here from convection than eastern areas. The storms tend to hang together out here until they hit 495.

  12. Fun with Ridges….

    Nam depicts a Ridge of High pressure extending from the Great Lakes to OFF shore
    of New England. 250MB winds split the high in 2. Surface depicts 2 cells, 1023 over
    Great Lakes and 1024 East of New England.

    Is it possible, the High splits in 2 and Hermine comes up right in between them?
    just a thought as I watch the progression of the 12Z NAM run.

  16. NAM seems way overdone. For now, I’d limit any hopes of 1″ to SE MA and 0.5″ inside 495. A small change in the track can change this, though. More of an issue in NJ, with huge amounts of rain forecast just off the coast there.

  17. Since May 2 when I set up the rain gauge, we have had 12.72 inches of rain in my area of Sutton.

    There may be a small amount missing since grandson has decided to be a met and will play with buttons.

    Average 3 inches/month (average and not specific) and of that I’d say at least 3 inches (guess) came as individual downpours.

    I don’t know if studies are conducted as to amount of beneficial rain vs actual rain amount. My guess is they are and that you, TK, specializing in agriculture would certainly know.

      1. I had a feeling it would require time and definitely know you have enough on your plate. My guess, and I suspect you would concur, is even though we had more rain, a good portion of it was not beneficial. It was consistently followed by hot and dry so made its route back up to its origin. Or does it originate down here. Which came first 😉

      1. Unfortunately, I missed out on aurora borealis. Did have spectacular views of the stars during my week as a cook for the scientists atop the pile of rocks (Mt. Washington).

  20. As far as real rain coming to Boston (the city itself) any time soon I am sooooo skeptical. Wouldn’t surprise me if Providence got rain this weekend, Hartford, CC and the Islands, and the South Shore, while Boston basically misses out, a few teaser drops notwithstanding.

        1. 🙂

          I think some are from JPD. And I wonder if you all got together you might actually trip JPD’s rain gauge! I’ll be happy to help.

  21. I don’t think were going to get that much rain at all here in CT. Fringe effects but some good wave action for CT Shoreline.

  22. Waiting on the Euro. Wide range of outcomes from all of the models. Crazy divergence.
    Just crazy. Hoping to be grounded via the Euro, although the GFS looks like
    a reasonable solution.

  23. Like all the others, the Euro has Hermine sitting on the Outer Banks tomorrow AM.

    From there, where oh where does she go?

          1. Yup, I’d like to see that much. We shall see.
            With these loops, I don’t think the models
            tend to do so well. We’ll find out soon enough.

  26. Pretty sky today – almost looks tropical! 🙂

    Normally I’d say we’d get a rainy day on Mon. (Rainy Days and Mondays – ha, ha) since it’s a long wknd. and that’s what usually happens, but with the ways things have been going – we’ll be lucky to get a brief shower. It’s still best to be on guard, ‘though, if one is making big outdoor plans. You never know. We’re going to have to get some decent rain at some point!!

    1. Why not? We’ve been talking about this system since August 18 when it was dubbed “Invest 99L”. 😉

  30. I was curious about long tracked systems. I looked quickly and found that Ivan was tracked from late August until late September 2004.

    I also found this list. I still seem to recall one in the 1990s that did a loop or two off the coast (pretty far off as I recall) before heading up this way….my memory says it was not still a hurricane.

    I could not copy just the longest duration table but you can scroll to see if you want. Nothing here earth shattering. Was more fun for me to look into.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Atlantic_hurricane_records#Longest_duration

    1. The western Pacific is even more impressive. I’ve tracked storms out there for over 30 days. 🙂

  32. Eric is really concerned about New Jersey. He thinks that Hermine is going to be their “Perfect Storm”, but if it is going to drift towards their coastline and intensify, then wouldn’t it be more like a repeat of “Hurricane Sandy” for them?

      1. intensifies of shore then moved Westward to almost on shore in
        Southern New Jersey before moving out again.

        2. It moves westward for far less time and at far lesser intensity and as a smaller storm with MUCH smaller fetch at much lower astronomical tides. Nope. No Sandy.

  33. Hermine will not be as severe as Sandy. There are many things not quite as “lined up” as well as the same magnitude. Make no mistake that it will have impact in that area but as for a repeat, or their “perfect storm”? Not to the magnitude some may have you thinking.

      1. I have noticed some of the “drama” and “hype” has kicked in with the local channels, along with just a lack of sound reasoning and responsible broadcasting. This is NOT across the board. There are specific examples but I will not get into them in grand detail here.

        I will cite one example and not name the meteorologist who already spoke of a system that has not been named yet (why I don’t know) and then declared that his forecast was based solely on the NAM. That’s like getting behind the wheel of a car that has no brakes and trying to drive down the Mt. Washington Auto Road.

    2. TK, won’t the repetitive wind pushing towards the shore for many tide cycles cause quite a bit of coastal flooding for them?

    1. The lead rain band depicted on many of the models will probably largely fail as it tries to get into SNE, whenever that turns out to be.

  35. Back in Wrentham for the long holiday weekend… Couldn’t help but notice the sky this evening. The evening’s visible loop is a must watch before sunset. Numerous diurnal cumulus dissipating, with a cirrus shield advancing from the south, sharply defined. A sure sign of tropical trouble this time of year.

    http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/ne/flash-vis.html

        1. Yes, sorry, it’s flash. Unfortunately they don’t have gif loops for the standard products like that.

  36. It looks like we here in SNE will miss the most significant impacts from Hermine. Some rain/wind and the surf/rip current threat will exist especially towards the South Coast, but barring a northward jump in the forecast we should be okay.

    Concerned about the mid-Atlantic though. I do not like the latest model trends. The 18z GFS, for example, would be potentially catastrophic for portions of the mid-Atlantic coast. Some other models support this, and some are weaker/more offshore. Just hoping the latter suite is correct.

    The tropics aren’t done either; with the MJO moving into the Atlantic as the season peaks, we’re sure to see continued opportunities for development throughout the basin this month.

  37. Hi friends:

    Most of you read weather maps better than I.
    What is causing the storm to stall off the New Jersey coast and head out to sea mostly south of us? Is there a high pressure area to our north blocking the storm?

    Thanks for your insight.

    1. There is a big high to the North contributing for sure.
      I was watching winds atv39pmb, 250 mb and 200 mb. There becomes a closed circulation at that level causing Hermon to go in circles.

      1. That cone looks similar
        The tropical force storm probabilities changed with 5am update particularly in CT where 50% chance was covering all of southern part of central CT now 50% is eastern parts of CT shoreline.

    1. Thanks, JJ. Seems they have it wandering around off shore for a bit if I read correctly but the EURO has it moving away faster???

  43. From the maps JP Dave provided I’m seeing some first signs of winter in the far north with a rather strong and large low pressure area north of Hudson Bay, ushering in snow and a very cold week in parts of Nunavut province and the Northwest Territories (places like Resolute and Eureka – I love the names of these towns).

    1. Alot of folks don’t realize how seismic that area can be. I know a couple people out there that felt it.

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