Saturday Forecast

129 Comments

9:31AM

DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 3-7)…
Labor Day Weekend is underway and I know everyone’s attention has been on Hermine and the weather impacts wherever you have your plans for the weekend. The focus here will be southern New England as usual and I will keep this post short and concise. Hermine will finish its trek across the Carolinas and emerge back over water far south of New England, moving northeastward to a position east of the Mid Atlantic before milling around for a couple to a few days, probably through this 5-day forecast period. Though the location is more of a concern for the Mid Atlantic, where the greater impact will be, it will also have an impact on how much rain is able to work into southern New England, eventually. One thing we will not escape is a moderate impact from rough surf, especially along the South Coast by late in the weekend (later Sunday and Labor Day Monday), which may expand northward by Tuesday and Wednesday due to the fairly broad circulation of the storm and its time spent in the same general vicinity. As for rain, it’s hard to say for sure, but I think we’ll get through most of Sunday before anything may reach Cape Cod later in the day. After that I think we’ll see a couple waves of scattered showers versus solid rain, one potentially sometime on Monday and another one sometime Tuesday or Tuesday night, with isolated leftovers Wednesday. Again, this part of the forecast is lower confidence and will be refined.
** Please note that some wind gusts on Cape Cod and the immediate shoreline may be stronger at times than the range I have below, and also be aware that the rip current risk will be increasing at the beaches during the course of the weekend. **
TODAY: Sunshine filtered at times by high clouds. Highs 72-82, coolest coastal areas. Wind light variable becoming E 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 56-64, mildest in urban areas. Wind light E.
SUNDAY: Variably cloudy with most sun north and west of Boston, least sun Cape Cod. Highs 68-75 Cape Cod and South Coast, 76-82 elsewhere, warmest well west of Boston. Wind E 5-15 MPH except up to 20 MPH at times Cape Cod.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Risk of some rain Cape Cod, southeastern MA, and RI. Lows 60-66. Wind E 5-15 MPH interior, 15-30 MPH with higher gusts in coastal areas, strongest Cape Cod and South Coast.
MONDAY – LABOR DAY: Variably cloudy. Episodes of scattered showers. Humid. Highs 68-77. Wind E to NE 10-20 MPH inland and 15-30 MPH coast, with higher gusts especially South Coast.
TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Episodes of showers likely. Humid. Windy at times, especially coastal areas. Lows 60-68. Highs 68-78, coolest South Coast.
WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated showers possible. Humid. Breezy at times. Lows 60-68. Highs 72-80, coolest coastal areas.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 8-12)…
Other than brief shower threats from a couple passing disturbances, the trend after Hermine is gone will be for warmer to hotter weather.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 13-17)…
Pattern will favor limited shower threats and continued mainly above normal temperatures.

129 thoughts on “Saturday Forecast”

    1. Today: East up to 15.
      Tonight: East up to 15.
      Sunday: East up to 25 gusts 30-35.
      Sunday night: East up to 35 gusts 40-45.
      Monday: East to northeast up to 35 gusts 40-50. Spot locations may see a stronger gusts.
      Monday night: Similar to daytime.
      Tuesday/Wednesday: Should see mostly northeast up to 30 with higher gusts.

  4. Good morning and thank you TK.

    re: Hermine

    Models still vary quite a bit on impacts for SNE.

    The Euro wants to give us an inch+ when all is said and done.
    THe GFS about 1/4 inch or so
    CMC about 2 inches
    The 4KM NAM about an inch, but that was only through mid-day Monday

    With the way the Summer has gone, the GFS will be the winner here.

    Routing for the Euro, CMC and/or the 4KM NAM. Lets’ get some rain in here.

  5. hermine came off shore around 7 0r 8 this morning. Yesterday’s models didn’t have
    that happening until 11Am to 2Pm or in that range. Does this mean it will be more
    intense????

    1. Probably won’t make much difference. It’s just several hours earlier. Once that thing starts to mill around, it’s going to have a difficult time maintaining strength. A storm that does that blows its surface warm water supply away and it’s replaced with colder upwelled water. Storm no likey.

      1. That certainly makes sense.

        Related to that, rain or no here, with days and days of
        constant East and Northeast winds, there will be plenty
        of up welling here as well. This will drop the SSTs around here
        markedly. Will they recover with warmer weather ahead OR
        do we get a head start on cooling the waters for our Winter snows?

        1. It will have zero impact on winter water temps. So much time between now and then. At first the water temps will stay up and then eventually some cooler water from the maritimes will sneak in. Finally, some warmer water pulled from the Gulf Stream will seep into the mix. So we’ll see a bit of a roller coaster with water temps.

  7. The 12Z NAM has a closed circulation at 250mb dropping South to the coast
    around the VA,NC border, thus propeling Hermine back on shore around the MD/VA border right at the entrance to Chesapeake Bay.

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conusncep.php?run=2016090312&var=PCPPRSTMP_2m&hour=048

    Not saying this will happen, just posting the NAM model output.

    IF this were to happen, this is a chance in guidance, as clearly guidance kept it
    off shore prior to this.

    Let’s see what the other runs show.

    1. There is a slightly enhanced risk, but since the strongest wind will really be confined to the South Coast for most of this, that is where you’ll see the greatest risk.

  9. Many met’s take this as too uniform a situation. For example: “Cloudcover will grow heavier and thicken during the course of the weekend.” No, not quite. For one thing that is too broad a statement as the entire area will not see the exact same thing the entire weekend.

    The irony here is that today may be the most uniformly overcast, albeit fairly thin overcast, of all 3 days. A lot of dry air gets involved around the edges of the storm tomorrow and there will likely be sunnier areas especially north and west of Boston while a heavier cloud deck is more persistent over Cape Cod.

    By Monday and Tuesday, we may be in and out of clouds of all levels from high to middle to tropical towers. It will be a “messy sky” most likely on the days we have our greatest rain chances, and that rain will not likely come as a solid area regionwide, but just clusters and maybe bands of showers. I think downpours will be possible but again it will be a case of “some get them, some don’t”. No big time drought relief coming this time either.

    1. Excellent discussion. Why can’t TV mets tell it like this?
      Oh wait, I don’t think they are provided with enough time to do so, therefore,
      sometimes they are forced to paint a broader picture OR not.

      Last night Eric indicated that “some” trees could come down due to the
      drought. I just can’t see it around here, but we shall see.

      1. I suspect your reasoning is correct. In addition, they are instructed to hype. Would not want to be in their shoes but then that is why I work for myself 🙂

      2. Vicki is right, and you know that anyway. Working for a news director that has to play the ratings game for the network bosses above them, etc. … This is why I will never be a TV met. But that’s ok, the days of video pod casting may not be all that far off for me.

  12. Another classic “storm to the south” sky today. Cirrostratus overcast with a solar halo. Love it 🙂

    1. Actually reminds me of a winter sky other than the leafed trees… You know that situation where a big Mid Atlantic snowstorm is passing south of us and it’s really cold and dry but there’s a flood warning in Jamaica Plain because Dave is crying. 😉

  13. Looking more and more to me like Tuesday is our greatest rain chance day. Not that it’s a great chance, just the greatest chance.

  14. Thanks for suggesting that I watch Bernie Rayno on video. He is awesome, a good teacher and explains things in great detail. I now know more about the impending storm and weather in general!

    1. I forget about Bernie and should not. I could only find a recent link to Lester. Do you have a link to Hermine? Thank you for the reminder.

    2. Bernie is a favorite of mine, but his bloopers remain all-star, second only to Jim Kosek’s. 😉

  15. Daughter is driving with a friend to Annapolis, Maryland today. She should be there in 3 or 4 hours, ahead of the storm. At first she wanted to go on Sunday, but I advised her to go before rather than during the storm. I think most guidance is now saying a tropical storm will hit that area tomorrow, correct?

    1. Nice area. We always stopped at Kents Narrow or is it Kent Narrows just over the bridge from Annapolis. From my untrained eye and knowledge, she sure is close enough to the coast to have a taste of Hermine.

      1. Yes, indeed. I said yesterday, “Lisa, you’ll be fine on your drive down. Hermine won’t be a danger to until late Saturday night.” To which my daughter replied, “Who’s Hermine?” Obviously, she hadn’t been following the news, which made my statement and her response comical.

  20. Reminder, on all of those Imgur images of the Euro I posted, IF you click on the image,
    you will get a much larger view of the chart. 😀

  21. Like the look of that Euro run. Worst case scenario averted for the mid-Atlantic, plus needed rains for eastern MA. Lots of divergence in the guidance right now though.

    1. That is my concern. Loads of divergence. Not that Hermine resembles Sandy in any way, “could” the Euro be right about Hermine like it was for Sandy.
      That is the big question.

      Will the GFS beat out the Euro this time around? Hope not. I want the Euro solution.

    1. In the past, I have noticed that these Euro wind charts are underdone, much like the NAM precipitation is often over done.

      SO, we shall see.

  24. Hermine has a cold core center now making it extratropical. You can see this clearly via the visible satellite loop with a well defined but broad center of circulation

    1. Well done. I like your style. Thank you.

      Question: Was this completed before looking at the Euro?
      Curious to know how looking at the Euro affects your comments, If at all.

      Many thanks

      1. I have not looked at the Euro yet. For the most part, I had most of this written in my head while on shift last night. This morning’s models didn’t change much, if any, of my thinking. I rarely let a new run sway me that much. The general idea has been very consistent for a few days now. It’s just the little details that vary, and one run of one model won’t alter my thinking on that.

        1. Ok, fair enough. Thank you for sharing.

          If the 0Z Euro looks similar to the 12Z, then we will be getting in on some of the action, at least the rain.
          And I surely do hope that happens.

          I suppose that is wishing for too much. T

          We shall know soon enough. 😀

  26. Is there a definition of “tropical storm conditions? I’ve tried googling it to no avail. It’s being used in the NWS forecasts. It would be helpful to know wind speed and for the marine forecast, wave heights. It makes the forecasts sound ominous, which contrasts with the rest of the forecasts out there which are calling for windy conditions with occasional rain.

    We’re moving our sailboat north from Buzzards Bay to Winthrop, to a mooring in a location protected from the North East, and hopefully out of harm’s way. The small craft advisory for Massachusetts Bay is predicting waves of 6-9 feet for tomorrow->Monday. Yikes!

    1. A tropical storm contains sustained winds of at least 39, but not more than 73 mph. That is “tropical storm conditions.”

          1. hahahahaha – took me a minute to figure out it was repeating. I thought it was stuck in the cone of silence

            I think that is because I am still dizzy from the previous two. I like how the GFS has it literally outlining the cape

      1. 1. Previous: coming or occurring before something else; prior:

        Sorry – been a long day and could not help myself!

  31. 18Z still wants to take a left turn towards the DelMarva, however, on this run does NOT
    go as far before heading out seaward again. 😀

    1. I take that back. My eyes are wacked from constant model viewing.

      The NAM is taking it way out just like the EURO did.

      Let’s see what else it does. 😀

  32. It amazes me that the center of Hermine comes as close as it does (at its closest pass) with very little impact in terms of rain and wind in ‘most’ of our viewing area.

    1. I don’t consider an inch of rain with gusts to 30 huge big impact considering a storm of that magnitude may come as close as the EURO projects.

      1. Ok, now that you have clarified that.

        But it may be 2 inches of rain with gusts to 40-50 mph.
        I would consider that a pretty decent impact, although not major by any stretch.

    2. That is yet to be determined. Did you take a close look at the Euro?

      let’s see what the 0Z model suit has to say.

  36. In at Gloucester harbor for a lighted boat parade and fireworks display. A bit cool but dressed for it. Beautiful evening!

      1. Ha ha! True.
        I guess a lot have been watching this tropical system and maybe haven’t paid attention to mid to late week.
        Speaking of, the radar image doesn’t look that impressive. Maybe we get some rain, but it’s not looking too significant from what I can tell. I could be wrong.

            1. I saw that. 4 was not as excited about it.

              I think SIL is leaning toward not heading to wedding on cape tomorrow night. I’m betting a lot of people leave Sunday night and traffic could be nasty. Who knows.

      1. Yup . If you remember last year after labor day we had a couple of very hot days that week . I think it’s may repeat late week into the weekend. I think it’s going to be a very warm fall this year going into winter . Perhaps another record warmth winter , little early for that call but I’ve heard mild from some very good sources regarding the winter .

        1. I don’t think we will have that warm of a winter. I have a feeling we will be dealing with some very cold weather

    1. Nice article, Keith. I am very familiar with the pic of the farmers market in charleston. I believe in meeting street or close.

      The eastern US is seeing one of the largest ocean rises. Charleston is at sea level …as I recall the lowest point is at the battery but it has been year. But then Boston is built on landfill.

      Trouble it is a comin’

  41. To touch upon a few thing from earlier…

    Hermine … Not coming closer than expected.

    The news exposes a lot of folks’ ignorance. They were actually stupid enough to air a segment on Channel 4 of a couple people remarking that an area of clouds they were looking at was like a line and then broke apart and moved etc etc … And they never see clouds like that unless a hurricane is coming. Well, 1) It’s not a hurricane anymore, and 2) they were looking at diurnal cumulus/stratocumulus clouds caused by the heating of the sun today. Ok maybe I don’t expect them to completely get that, but come on. And the news folks should know better enough to check with their meteorologist to make sure it is legit enough to air. The answer in this case would have been a flat NO if it was from me, and I would have also communicated to the people being interviewed about what they were actually seeing. Disrespect? NO. Education? ABSOLUTELY. And listening to the locals on TV tonight was painful. They don’t actually know what they’re talking about, or at least how to communicate it properly. All that does is feed the ignorance of your audience. My words may harsh, but they are SPOT ON and 100% TRUE. The need for better education is greater than ever.

  42. New post!

    Heading to Six Flags for a couple hours at the water park then several hours at the main park. All for free. 🙂 Should be a very decent weather day in Agawam MA.

    I’ll check in mobile when I can. Don’t let the news hype machines suck you in! Stay safe here. 😉

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