Tuesday Forecast

75 Comments

7:23AM

DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 13-17)…
High pressure sinks south of New England today with sunshine and warming air. It briefly heats up and gets a little more humid Wednesday ahead of a cold front, which accompanied by a shower or thunderstorm, will put a quick end to the warm up and introduce a shot of cooler and drier air for Thursday and Friday as high pressure moves back in. This high begins to drop to the south allowing Saturday to warm up a little more after a cool start.
TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 77-84. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 58-66. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Early-day patchy fog in valley areas. Sunshine into afternoon. Late-day clouds with a risk of showers/thunderstorms. More humid. Highs 81-88 except cooler South Coast. Wind SW 10-20 MPH and gusty, shifting to NW late in the day with the passage of the front.
THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Lows 50-60. Highs 68-75.
FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows 45-55. Highs 68-75.
SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows 40-50. Highs 70-78.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 18-22)…
Risk of a few showers with a frontal passage September 18. Mainly dry September 19-22. Temperatures above normal.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 23-27)…
Overall pattern remains dry and warm.

75 thoughts on “Tuesday Forecast”

  2. Thanks TK.. I came across a site http://www.windyty.com from a pilot friend. Very cool and easy to use for viewing wind speeds, direction, wave action etc.. all around the world. Not sure how accurate but still neat. JPDave I think you will enjoy….

    1. It’s pretty nice. I think that the colors could be better defined. It is a tad difficult
      to figure out what’s what. But the concept is outstanding. Thank you for sharing.

      I shall book mark.

    2. I also think it is great. I sent to the mom’s of both of the grandkids who are fascinated by weather and radars. It is a pretty cool tool for kids to help them visualize. Kids BTW would include me since I am just about at their level 🙂

      Thank you.

      1. Glad you guys enjoy it. Try scrolling over to the western pacific and look at the typhoon off China. I also saw that in the lower right hand you can choose Euro, GFS or NAM5km. Pretty awesome….

    3. I’m curious to know what your pilot friend saw on September 11. As I think you know my sister in law is a flight attendant for Delta. She always schedules to fly Sept 11 as it is her way of making a statement that we will not be intimidated. She said her flight was jam packed as were the flights of her colleagues. It made me feel very proud of our country to hear this.

      1. He was to to young and not flying at the time. I do know a couple of pilots that were in the air just a few hours after the attack. They were flying tankers over NYC and BOS providing mid-air refueling to MA Guard F-15’s. Hard to believe 15 years. Your sister in law is very courageous for taking those flights so proudly!

        1. I am sorry I was not clear. I meant september 11 this year.

          You are very kind and, yes, My SIL is rather amazing. She was one of the ones who volunteered to go into Iraq to get the hostages when they thought it would be a private carrier (she was with Pan Am then). I need to add that every single person in the room who was asked to volunteer to fly into Iraq stood. My SIL was just chosen because she speaks so many languages.

          As it turned out, the private carriers (3 in total from around the world as I recall) were denied access to the hostages but did go in right after their release to get others out. She was on the Pan Am plane that flew it. She also flew into Vietnam repeatedly to get injured. I could listen to her stories over and over.

          1. I need to add, and then I will stop, that she was on Flight 103 when it flew into London. An angel was on her shoulder because she was bumped (for reasons I will have to ask) from flying out on 103 when it made its fateful trip over Lockerbie.

  6. Clicking on soundings in different parts of SNE for both 6z runs of American model run there is none when it says possible hazard. The bulk shear is good but the other parameters are not.

  9. Hate to be a nag about this, TK, but checking again on your feeling re: storms/rain and Springsteen tomorrow night in Foxboro. Show starts at 7:30. Thanks!

          2. For clarification, it’s hard to pick up the times
            on that loop. I had to slow it down and it lost something. The main echoes from that stretch
            Southwestward from the coast are in the area
            around 21Z and exiting around 0Z

    1. They do, but either nothing happens OR they head into the
      Hurricane grave yard of the Atlantic.

      We need a real tropical entity up here to drop 4-6 inches of rain on us.

        1. That would be nice as long as it isn’t a full-blown
          hurricane that would cause extensive damage.
          We don’t want to pay too high a price for that rain.

          I know, I ask for a lot, but hey it doesn’t hurt to ask. 😀

  11. I was half asleep but I think Pete Bouchard on NECN said last night that our current drought can be traced back to 2013 and that we would need 20″ of excess rain to break even. He didn’t go into specifics, but that sounds right.

  12. Thanks TK. What a beautiful day!

    Amazing how busy the tropics get this time of year in the Northern Hemisphere; I think TK mentioned the brief unusual period of no global tropical cyclones several days ago, but that couldn’t be further from the truth now. Two storms in the West Pacific, including one of the strongest tropical cyclones on record in Meranti. Also a hurricane in the East Pacific, Orlene. A pretty sad state in the Atlantic though, with Ian the sheared sheep and what was probably an unclassified tropical depression that moved into Florida this morning.

  14. Well, the system along the Florida east coast certainly earned more of the NHC’s attention on its 2pm update. It certainly is spinning pretty good on radar, has been all day.

    1. Yup, mimics the traffic right outside of my office.
      At 5PM, one can’t from here to there, even though it is only across
      the street. It’s a pure cluster *****

      I have to go around the block and put up with pedestrians, MBTA busses and vehicles, and then go down a side street to attempt to get on a main one-way street that is backed up for 1/2 mile because of a traffic light.

      INSANITY!!

      Whoever sets the traffic lights and designs the traffic flow for this City has
      an IQ of about 70. 😀 😀 😀

      1. Last time we were in San Francisco, we marveled at how well the lights were timed.

        I have to say that I truly love my commute 😉

          1. That’ll show you how long it has been since we were there. I thought of putting a disclaimer but got side tracked. So they are all horrific. 🙂

  17. This is perhaps one of the most stunning satellite images ever taken. The eye of Super Typhoon Meranti directly over the Philippine island of Itbayat. I originally hoped/assumed this to be an uninhabited island, but it actually has a population of about 3,000. A weather station on the island miraculously appeared to survive the storm’s passage; it reported, in an hourly observation, a pressure of 933mb and what I believe is a 10 minute sustained wind of 112 mph. (1 minute sustained winds were estimated at 185mph). The picture is via Stu Ostro’s Twitter page. The bottom link is the Itbayat weather station history for today (9/14 in their time zone).

    http://pbs.twimg.com/media/CsQPTbpWEAEpGOT.jpg

    https://www.wunderground.com/history/wmo/98132/2016/9/14/DailyHistory.html?req_city=Itbayat&req_state=&req_statename=Philippines&reqdb.zip=00000&reqdb.magic=1&reqdb.wmo=98132

    2. The accuracy is in the reasoning at the end…..and I’ll take the worst case as we will be discussing it to death while we all…..hmmm….die

    4. Of course having a temperature timeline for 20,000 B.C. assumes a whole lot. Accuracy regarding the entire thing actually is more opinion than fact.

      We can infer a lot from ice samples, and we have found virtually ice free periods in the Arctic on this timeline at times that the temperature there is said to be colder than currently. How would one go about explaining that to make it sound reasonable?

      1. Eh, I’d have to look into it a lot deeper than I did! I mean, ice core samples go back well before 20,o00 BC so we’re still missing a lot of the “reconstructed” picture. I just noticed that most of the scientific events seemed reasonable, i.e the Younger Dryas, mini-ice age, etc. My biggest takeaway is just that the rate of change in modern times is so much greater than anywhere else, and getting steeper. Probably an over-analysis of a comic strip though 😛

        1. Perhaps, but it’s still a very good comic strip. 🙂

          Most folks know my only slightly skeptical but very proactive stance on the whole thing, so I won’t repeat it here. 🙂

          1. I agree. It was a comic strip until the end and I found myself chuckling at some and then sadly it became a reality.

  20. The CFS has spoken, and the story for October is: Warm & dry. Where have we heard this before? 😉

  22. Let me get this straight. A tropical storm has formed OVER LAND, is expected to stay OVER LAND for its entire life, and tropical storm warnings have been issued for the coast.

    I’d ask what the punchline is, but the entire thing is one big joke.

    1. This is the result of:
      A. Incompetence.
      B. Butt covering.
      C. Climate Change.
      D. The End Is Near.
      E. Roger Goodell.
      F. If Australia Can Do It, So Can We.
      G. I Don’t Care If Trump Is Running, It’s Still Bush’s Fault.
      H. All Of The Above.
      I. None Of The Above.
      J. Some Of The Above.
      K. Pick ’em.
      L. No Line.

    2. For learning purposes, what are the biggest errors with this being classified ?

      I have some GUESSES, such as ….

      The tropical storm force wind gusts aren’t surrounding the center, but are to its east over the frictionless ocean ….

      This isn’t a purely tropical system ….

      It has formed over land …..

      Why should this not have been classified as a tropical storm ?

      Thanks.

      1. First and foremost, the system did not have sustained winds of tropical storm force. It was producing tropical storm force wind gusts.

        A northeastern can produce hurricane force wind gusts. That does not make it a hurricane.

        I’m about to drive so SAK or I can get into more detail later.

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